Author Topic: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?  (Read 4188 times)

LadLiquidLonghair

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First time, long time, etc.

Looking for my first rental. $500K to invest, now what?

A few more detailed questions:

1. Typical 3/2 SFHs are all around the 0.66% rule (I.E. hard pass). Are 2% deals dead? Are 1% deals dead? I'm in Central, FL, fwiw.

2. Where do you all analyze purchase prices vs potential rental income? Anything more sophisticated (data driven) than, uh, Zillow's SALE tab vs. the RENTAL tab?

3. How do you know a market is saturated with 3/2 rentals? Again, anything more sophisticated that "daaggum, that's a lot of rental dots on Zillow?"


THX, been looking into rentals for A LONG TIME and now feeling like I have enough liquid + cushion to work out of my modest-spending/investing comfort zone.

Shooting for $5K - $10K of rental income, already fixing up ADU at my primary for $1500/monthly (I hope).

TY

GilesMM

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #1 on: August 02, 2023, 08:16:04 PM »
Go to where the deals are. I think Arebelspy bought property all over the country, lets other manage it, etc.  Rinse, repeat, retire.

uniwelder

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #2 on: August 03, 2023, 01:30:00 AM »
Go to where the deals are. I think Arebelspy bought property all over the country, lets other manage it, etc.  Rinse, repeat, retire.

To be fair, I think @arebelspy bought a handful of properties where he was living (Las Vegas) before venturing out to buy remotely. For someone that is fresh and trying to understand the basics, I wouldn’t recommend being a distant landlord. 

nereo

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #3 on: August 03, 2023, 04:51:30 AM »
There are certain markets and years where it’s simply a bad (risky) time to be a landlord. Be patient, and don’t chase bad deals or force yourself into a losing situation. 

I agree with uniwelder about not trying to be a first time landlord in a place where you do not live.

Metalcat

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #4 on: August 03, 2023, 07:14:24 AM »
Yeah, you just don't buy rentals in some markets.

The "rule" isn't dead, the rule remains. Don't buy bad investments.

It sucks if there are no good investment properties in your area, there were none in mine either, think lower than 0.5% for a lot of units.

This is why I bought my first rental property in a city I had visited once, an 11 hour drive away. That said, I bought there because I intend to live there eventually and I wanted to lock in the real estate prices which were low at the time in an area that is the fastest growing in the country.

I had a choice, either invest in a rental there and rise with the tide, or be priced out by the time I would be able to move there (~5 yr timeline).

I then bought a second property a few months later, sight unseen, 31 hrs away on a remote island I had never even been to. Granted, I don't rent this one out. I fell in love with it when I came to close on it and now use it as a summer home, but it would be an easy rental to manage.

I had zero experience with owning rentals when I bought two in wildly different and far away locations. I don't think you need experience to be able to do that, you just really need to know your shit and be able to do thorough research about a place.

I was lucky, DH has a ton of family in the first location, so I was able to tap into enormous local knowledge of the area, which I had done when I fell in love with the city and started researching living there.

I watched countless videos, read endless Reddit threads about what renters were saying about living there and different areas, what kind of people were moving into the area. I spoke to literally every single rental management company in the area, a ton of real estate agents, and inspectors.

I would have had to do the same work for buying locally except that I would have more natural knowledge of neighbourhoods and why properties are valued the way they are.

For the much further property, I took more time. I made literally hundreds of phone calls. I probably spoke to every single property manager in the entire province. I'm also spoke to many contractors to get a sense of what the buildings are like and what issues to look for since I was buying a 110 year old house I had never seen.

Now that I've done it twice in short order, I can say that it's a lot less intimidating than it sounds. Before I pulled the trigger on the first property, it felt like the most insane thing possible. But now it just seems like common sense: do your research, figure out where the actual deals are, buy where the deals are.

It's not rocket surgery. You just need to fully understand the risks and have a plan for the worst case scenarios.

My purchases have turned out awesome. They've taken work, because to get a good deal, you usually need to put in some work, and I hit a hiccup with the first building because I toured it during the pandemic with an N95 mask on and didn't realize that the smoke smell wasn't minor, it was suffocating.

That turned a 2 week cosmetic flip job into a 6 week remediation/exorcism that nearly psychologically broke me, lol. But other than that and a few expensive repairs like a heat pump that caught fire and a sump pump that failed (thanks DIY work of the previous owner!), it's been nothing that a few days and a few thousand dollars can't fix. That could have happened anywhere though.

No matter what, I budgeted for property management, so whether the unit is 20 minutes from me or 11 hrs from me doesn't really make much of a difference.

Basically, if you want a real estate deal, buy where the deals are. And don't be afraid of buying long distance. Just don't be naive and stupid about it.

Until you understand a market enough to understand why various units are valued the way they are both in terms of purchase and rental, you don't have the foundational knowledge to identify a deal.

A property meeting or exceeding the 1% rule should actually give you pause and make you wonder *why* that market is that way.

I was just looking at a property that was around 5%, and I was scrambling to figure out why the fuck that even existed. It wasn't a green light to jump, it was a yellow light to investigate extremely thoroughly.

I figured out why the ratios were so good where I bought my first property, but so did everyone else. By the time I closed on the first property, so many investors had flooded the market that it had become impossible to find equally good deals.

Really good ratios are either temporary blips while the market figures them out, or they are permanent issues with a location and no one is willing to speculate on the real estate market there.

That doesn't make them bad markets to own rentals in. You just need to understand *why* and be prepared to own a property that my cash flow well, but may drop in value or be difficult to sell.  What you really need to figure out is if the factor that's keeping real estate values low is also going to kill rental values over time.

clarkfan1979

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #5 on: August 03, 2023, 07:52:25 AM »
First time, long time, etc.

Looking for my first rental. $500K to invest, now what?

A few more detailed questions:

1. Typical 3/2 SFHs are all around the 0.66% rule (I.E. hard pass). Are 2% deals dead? Are 1% deals dead? I'm in Central, FL, fwiw.

2. Where do you all analyze purchase prices vs potential rental income? Anything more sophisticated (data driven) than, uh, Zillow's SALE tab vs. the RENTAL tab?

3. How do you know a market is saturated with 3/2 rentals? Again, anything more sophisticated that "daaggum, that's a lot of rental dots on Zillow?"


THX, been looking into rentals for A LONG TIME and now feeling like I have enough liquid + cushion to work out of my modest-spending/investing comfort zone.

Shooting for $5K - $10K of rental income, already fixing up ADU at my primary for $1500/monthly (I hope).

TY


The 1% rule is a proxy for cash flow, but it isn't always accurate in estimating cash flow because it ignores mortgage rates, taxes and insurance costs. As a result, I ignore the 1% rule. I run the numbers on actual cash flow. 

I have a college rental in Fort Collins, CO with low taxes, insurance, low mortgage rate and low taxes. It's not close to the 1% rule and it's been a great rental for the past 15 years. It's close to CSU Fort Collins vacancy has been 0% for the past 15 years.

I was on the MMM forum in October/November 2020 talking about how I wish I had more money to buy a second rental in the neighborhood. Houses that would be a great college rental were selling for 375K with only 5-10K of cosmetic upgrades needed. Mortgage rates for rentals were 3.5%. With 25% down, the total PITI would be around $1475/month. Market rent would be around $2500/month.

The consensus on this forum is that because it falls very short of the 1% rule (.65%), it's a bad rental because it doesn't have cash flow. However, that is just not true. It has $1,025/month of cash flow with $425/month of principle pay down in a desirable location with 0% vacancy. I would buy those rentals all day long.

I'm originally from Lake County, IL. You can buy 1% there today. Because the property taxes are so high, the sales prices are cheaper. However, because of the property taxes, there is zero cash flow on 1% deals. The property taxes average about 3% of the value. However, some properties have property taxes as high as 5%.

One of my buddies is getting ready to sell his townhouse and it's close to a 1% deal. I previously posted that it's worth around 230K, but he might sell it for as low as 210K, if he needed to sell because he got his new dream house under contract. The townhouse might rent for $2,100/month. Here are the details below.

25% down on a 210K purchase with a mortgage rate of 7.75%
P & I = 1128 with $111 going toward principle and $1017 going toward interest
Taxes = 570/month
HOA = 280/month
Insurance = $22/month
Total = $2,000/month

He bought it for 180K in 2007 as a foreclosure and put 5K into it doing most of the work himself. The after repair value was probably around 200K/year. This townhouse appreciated from 200K to 230K over 15 years. This is a 1% deal that you can buy today and is total garbage.

   

LadLiquidLonghair

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #6 on: August 03, 2023, 08:41:33 AM »
Thank you @clarkfan1979 those mathematical examples clicked for me RE: cashflow.

Makes me think I COULD pay cash for a $250K house and potentially rent it for $2K/month. If I net $1K per month after taxes/insurance/etc.,  is this a potentially good use of funds?

(Original Post questions still abound on how to assess if market is too saturated with rentals).


uniwelder

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #7 on: August 03, 2023, 08:42:04 AM »
The 1% rule is a proxy for cash flow, but it isn't always accurate in estimating cash flow because it ignores mortgage rates, taxes and insurance costs. As a result, I ignore the 1% rule. I run the numbers on actual cash flow. 

Yes, good point.  My last rental purchase also falls short of the 1% rule.  It's at about 0.75% but I think its a great investment because I happened to get a 3.1% interest rate and taxes/insurance are pretty low, so cash flow actually happens.

LadLiquidLonghair

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #8 on: August 03, 2023, 08:44:52 AM »
@Metalcat and others, thank you for your stories and perspective on local vs. out of town rentals.

Nothing is off the table, obviously lots more comfort with something local since I'm handy and already have a small team to deploy if fixes needed. I bought a primary residence sight unseen, though all points are valid, takes a lot more legwork than I might have time for ATM.


Telecaster

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #9 on: August 03, 2023, 09:22:22 AM »
Makes me think I COULD pay cash for a $250K house and potentially rent it for $2K/month. If I net $1K per month after taxes/insurance/etc.,  is this a potentially good use of funds?


Terrible use of funds.   That's a simple 4.8% rate of return.  You can get that in CDs.   

clarkfan1979

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #10 on: August 03, 2023, 09:49:43 AM »
Thank you @clarkfan1979 those mathematical examples clicked for me RE: cashflow.

Makes me think I COULD pay cash for a $250K house and potentially rent it for $2K/month. If I net $1K per month after taxes/insurance/etc.,  is this a potentially good use of funds?

(Original Post questions still abound on how to assess if market is too saturated with rentals).

Have you read any real estate investing books? I think I read about 5 of them before I bought my first rental at the age of 27. I'm now 44.

Don't try to hit a home run on your first deal. An average deal with plenty of capital reserves to account for beginner mistakes is a great way to get started. Over time, I think all real estate investors develop their own personal RE niche. It's not always about what is better. It's about what fits into your lifestyle, what you like and what you don't like. I'm willing to sacrifice some higher returns for convenience.

Metalcat

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #11 on: August 03, 2023, 10:06:30 AM »
Thank you @clarkfan1979 those mathematical examples clicked for me RE: cashflow.

Makes me think I COULD pay cash for a $250K house and potentially rent it for $2K/month. If I net $1K per month after taxes/insurance/etc.,  is this a potentially good use of funds?

(Original Post questions still abound on how to assess if market is too saturated with rentals).

Have you read any real estate investing books? I think I read about 5 of them before I bought my first rental at the age of 27. I'm now 44.

Don't try to hit a home run on your first deal. An average deal with plenty of capital reserves to account for beginner mistakes is a great way to get started. Over time, I think all real estate investors develop their own personal RE niche. It's not always about what is better. It's about what fits into your lifestyle, what you like and what you don't like. I'm willing to sacrifice some higher returns for convenience.

This is so so true.

My niche is working class, gentrifying markets and ugly building built in the 60s/70s. Why? Because this is the type of neighbourhood/building I've rented in in a few cities in my many years as a renter of many different units.

So I have a more intuitive sense of how block to block one street can be lined with crack houses and the next is filled with families. I know what those under valued, tiny pockets look like, and what kind of tenants to expect.

I have a feel for neighborhoods that folks who just look at ratings and crime stats might generally avoid while paying a premium for postal codes that look better on paper.

What you already know will heavily influence what you are comfortable investing in. I don't understand high-end finishes and suburban family dynamics.

I know sketchy, crime filled, working class urban neighbourhoods and stunning rural tourist towns, and that's where my properties are.

Dee_the_third

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #12 on: August 03, 2023, 10:46:32 AM »
Lots of good advice on this thread. My answer is of course you have to find markets where 1% still holds. I actually just sold my first ever rental- it was a “house hack” duplex we lived in ourselves for two years. Location is a Midwest college town- next to zero vacancies and a screaming deal compared to the coasts. But I felt comfortable with that because we were stuck there for at least 6 years of graduate school. Ha. And we saved a butt load of money living in it, and it turned a moderate amount of appreciation in 6 years

I am always an advocate of being as close as possible to your first property. In some markets that means you buy a SFH for your primary residence with an ADU and rent the ADU. You learn what your risk tolerance is, you’re right there in case of emergencies, you can supervise repairs right up close. It’s never going to look like an amazing deal as an investor but as a homeowner the savings are tremendous for your own personal cash flow.


GilesMM

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #13 on: August 03, 2023, 10:50:14 AM »

The 1% rule is a proxy for cash flow, but it isn't always accurate in estimating cash flow because it ignores mortgage rates, taxes and insurance costs. As a result, I ignore the 1% rule. I run the numbers on actual cash flow. 

I have a college rental in Fort Collins, CO with low taxes, insurance, low mortgage rate and low taxes. It's not close to the 1% rule and it's been a great rental for the past 15 years. It's close to CSU Fort Collins vacancy has been 0% for the past 15 years.

I was on the MMM forum in October/November 2020 talking about how I wish I had more money to buy a second rental in the neighborhood. Houses that would be a great college rental were selling for 375K with only 5-10K of cosmetic upgrades needed. Mortgage rates for rentals were 3.5%. With 25% down, the total PITI would be around $1475/month. Market rent would be around $2500/month.

The consensus on this forum is that because it falls very short of the 1% rule (.65%), it's a bad rental because it doesn't have cash flow. However, that is just not true. It has $1,025/month of cash flow with $425/month of principle pay down in a desirable location with 0% vacancy. I would buy those rentals all day long.

I'm originally from Lake County, IL. You can buy 1% there today. Because the property taxes are so high, the sales prices are cheaper. However, because of the property taxes, there is zero cash flow on 1% deals. The property taxes average about 3% of the value. However, some properties have property taxes as high as 5%.

One of my buddies is getting ready to sell his townhouse and it's close to a 1% deal. I previously posted that it's worth around 230K, but he might sell it for as low as 210K, if he needed to sell because he got his new dream house under contract. The townhouse might rent for $2,100/month. Here are the details below.

25% down on a 210K purchase with a mortgage rate of 7.75%
P & I = 1128 with $111 going toward principle and $1017 going toward interest
Taxes = 570/month
HOA = 280/month
Insurance = $22/month
Total = $2,000/month

He bought it for 180K in 2007 as a foreclosure and put 5K into it doing most of the work himself. The after repair value was probably around 200K/year. This townhouse appreciated from 200K to 230K over 15 years. This is a 1% deal that you can buy today and is total garbage.



That is a horrifying property tax rate. I pay just a tad more than that on a property worth more than 10 times.

clarkfan1979

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #14 on: August 03, 2023, 11:13:22 AM »

The 1% rule is a proxy for cash flow, but it isn't always accurate in estimating cash flow because it ignores mortgage rates, taxes and insurance costs. As a result, I ignore the 1% rule. I run the numbers on actual cash flow. 

I have a college rental in Fort Collins, CO with low taxes, insurance, low mortgage rate and low taxes. It's not close to the 1% rule and it's been a great rental for the past 15 years. It's close to CSU Fort Collins vacancy has been 0% for the past 15 years.

I was on the MMM forum in October/November 2020 talking about how I wish I had more money to buy a second rental in the neighborhood. Houses that would be a great college rental were selling for 375K with only 5-10K of cosmetic upgrades needed. Mortgage rates for rentals were 3.5%. With 25% down, the total PITI would be around $1475/month. Market rent would be around $2500/month.

The consensus on this forum is that because it falls very short of the 1% rule (.65%), it's a bad rental because it doesn't have cash flow. However, that is just not true. It has $1,025/month of cash flow with $425/month of principle pay down in a desirable location with 0% vacancy. I would buy those rentals all day long.

I'm originally from Lake County, IL. You can buy 1% there today. Because the property taxes are so high, the sales prices are cheaper. However, because of the property taxes, there is zero cash flow on 1% deals. The property taxes average about 3% of the value. However, some properties have property taxes as high as 5%.

One of my buddies is getting ready to sell his townhouse and it's close to a 1% deal. I previously posted that it's worth around 230K, but he might sell it for as low as 210K, if he needed to sell because he got his new dream house under contract. The townhouse might rent for $2,100/month. Here are the details below.

25% down on a 210K purchase with a mortgage rate of 7.75%
P & I = 1128 with $111 going toward principle and $1017 going toward interest
Taxes = 570/month
HOA = 280/month
Insurance = $22/month
Total = $2,000/month

He bought it for 180K in 2007 as a foreclosure and put 5K into it doing most of the work himself. The after repair value was probably around 200K/year. This townhouse appreciated from 200K to 230K over 15 years. This is a 1% deal that you can buy today and is total garbage.



That is a horrifying property tax rate. I pay just a tad more than that on a property worth more than 10 times.

That is pretty normal for Lake County, IL (3%). The bad one's are 5%. One of my good friends bought a house in October 2020 for 415K. It wasn't a foreclosure, but looked like it. The renters in the house totally trashed it and needed at least 100K of repairs. Neighborhood prices were around 600K to 700K. He was buying a fixer and trying to get some sweat equity.

Taxes in 2020 were $20,356/year, so that's 4.9%. Because the sale price was low for the neighborhood, the property tax went down to $18,943/year in 2021. That's still 4.56% for property tax.

Here's the kicker. The local schools aren't even that good and he opted out of them. He drives his two kids to a charter school 25-30 minutes away.

LadLiquidLonghair

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #15 on: August 03, 2023, 07:58:57 PM »
Thanks, everyone.

Meeting with some investor-friendly local relators, hopefully they know local conditions and opportunities better than me cruising Zillow.

Will report back if anything turns up.

Appreciate you all.

Freedomin5

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #16 on: August 03, 2023, 08:35:45 PM »
Check out the Bigger Pockets site and forum. Their focus is on real estate investment and there are many knowledgeable folks there.


roomtempmayo

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #17 on: August 04, 2023, 10:35:23 AM »
That is pretty normal for Lake County, IL (3%). The bad one's are 5%. One of my good friends bought a house in October 2020 for 415K. It wasn't a foreclosure, but looked like it. The renters in the house totally trashed it and needed at least 100K of repairs. Neighborhood prices were around 600K to 700K. He was buying a fixer and trying to get some sweat equity.

Taxes in 2020 were $20,356/year, so that's 4.9%. Because the sale price was low for the neighborhood, the property tax went down to $18,943/year in 2021. That's still 4.56% for property tax.

Here's the kicker. The local schools aren't even that good and he opted out of them. He drives his two kids to a charter school 25-30 minutes away.

I think the Strong Towns argument is that much of the suburban US is headed for a similar reality in the coming decades as the bills for post-war infrastructure come due.

There probably is a certain wisdom in the exurban developments that resist centralized infrastructure, keeping everyone on their own septic, and refusing curbs, sidewalks, storm drains, or really much except very basic roads.  It's not a development pattern I want to live in, but it may end up being more sustainable that one acre lots with sidewalks and streetlights and centralized sewers.

LadLiquidLonghair

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #18 on: August 04, 2023, 01:52:06 PM »

I think the Strong Towns argument is that much of the suburban US is headed for a similar reality in the coming decades as the bills for post-war infrastructure come due.

There probably is a certain wisdom in the exurban developments that resist centralized infrastructure, keeping everyone on their own septic, and refusing curbs, sidewalks, storm drains, or really much except very basic roads.  It's not a development pattern I want to live in, but it may end up being more sustainable that one acre lots with sidewalks and streetlights and centralized sewers.

Dude, that's a good point about, lol. I hated living in the xurbs until I stared gardening and then I was like, uh 1-3 acre lots are sweeeeeeet.


aasdfadsf

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #19 on: August 04, 2023, 10:59:52 PM »
I believe that the 1% rule is something of a relic of a time when interest rates were much higher. Even though they've gone up over the past few years, they're still not that high by historical standards. Lower interest rates mean lower capital costs. And it's also the case that other costs vary big time between different locations. Some places have very high property taxes compared to others, and some places that are prone to natural disasters have very high insurance costs compared to others, and so on. You may have HOA fees, which are another major cost that you have to factor in. You may have a property that needs very little maintenance that you can take care of yourself, or one that requires tons of it that you have to hire out. Some types of properties in some locations will attract perfect renters, whereas others are more downmarket and you're always taking a risk on someone who will trash the place no matter how carefully you try to screen them. You also have to consider vacancies, which will wreck your margins, so is this place going to attract lots of applicants, or are you risking going months without a desirable renter?

The thing to do, as others have mentioned, is to do the math on that specific property and see if it pencils out. The 1% rule is at best just a crude screening tool. Don't ignore a property that doesn't make the 1% rule if it otherwise looks great, and conversely, don't just jump on one because it fits that rule if everything else about it doesn't make sense.     

aasdfadsf

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #20 on: August 04, 2023, 11:09:50 PM »
Makes me think I COULD pay cash for a $250K house and potentially rent it for $2K/month. If I net $1K per month after taxes/insurance/etc.,  is this a potentially good use of funds?


Terrible use of funds.   That's a simple 4.8% rate of return.  You can get that in CDs.

You have to consider the fact that real estate will tend to appreciate at roughly 4% a year even if you're not in a hot market. It should at least grow with inflation if nothing else. That's going to bring your ROI closer to 10% if your rental income is in the 4-6% range, and you should account for that.

I don't necessarily suggest that people try to pick a hot market, because that's really just speculating and you've got huge downside risk, but if you manage to pick a property that never goes up in value, then you've done something wrong.

aasdfadsf

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #21 on: August 04, 2023, 11:27:25 PM »
2. Where do you all analyze purchase prices vs potential rental income? Anything more sophisticated (data driven) than, uh, Zillow's SALE tab vs. the RENTAL tab?

You should totally ignore Zillow's "rental tab", which if I understand you correctly, means the thing where they predict the rental value of the place. It's based on some algorithm that is not reliable. Just use Zillow to look at all of the rentals that are currently up in the immediate area, preferably as close to your potential property as possible. Also use Craigslist and any other websites where people are actually putting places up for rent and naming their price. That will give you good comps. You should use that to give you an idea of what the market is actually going to pay you for renting out a place right there. And you should be conservative with your estimates because of adverse selection (the places you see for rent are the ones that haven't been snatched up).

Jon Bon

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #22 on: August 05, 2023, 07:11:02 AM »
A Few Comments:

1. Real estate books are generally a waste of time. RE is HYPER-local your conditions on the ground with local laws and tax rates make it almost impossible to compare apples to apples. RE books are written very broadly to sell as many books as possible. Sure maybe they are a very general intro to RE. Which you can get in about 10 mins on this forum.
2. Cash flow is king.  But don't forget opptunity cost! Sure you can buy a house for 250k and generate 1k a month in cash, but remember that 250k would likely earn 6-8% in the stock market with zero work. So that rental would be a terrible idea, requires work, risky as hell (comparatively), and a terrible return compared to the market.
3. You Can't Eat Appreciation - Sure I've "made" a bunch of money on appreciation. But I can't access until I sell the asset, and pay a bunch of taxes. It should not factor in your calculations up or down.
4. I'm Lucky - I started to buy in 2009, I rode the wave. I am not particularly smart or hard working. Although I probably was more daring then most in buying houses in 2009-2014. I'd hang on, and yeah it feels unfair. I am not trying to be a gate keeper here, but if the numbers don't work then they don't F#*%ing work!

I'd generally stick with what you know in terms of location. Were you in Florida? They were the leader in the peaks and crash of the RE market, likely would happen again.

Good luck out there. -JB


YttriumNitrate

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #23 on: August 05, 2023, 07:36:47 AM »
I think the Strong Towns argument is that much of the suburban US is headed for a similar reality in the coming decades as the bills for post-war infrastructure come due.

There probably is a certain wisdom in the exurban developments that resist centralized infrastructure, keeping everyone on their own septic, and refusing curbs, sidewalks, storm drains, or really much except very basic roads.  It's not a development pattern I want to live in, but it may end up being more sustainable that one acre lots with sidewalks and streetlights and centralized sewers.
I'm not sure Lake County, IL is spending that heavily on post-war infrastructure. The vast majority is spent on schools.

https://www.lakecountyil.gov/199/Property-Taxes

I'd hate to see what their tax bills might be in a few years.

roomtempmayo

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #24 on: August 06, 2023, 10:26:55 AM »
I think the Strong Towns argument is that much of the suburban US is headed for a similar reality in the coming decades as the bills for post-war infrastructure come due.

There probably is a certain wisdom in the exurban developments that resist centralized infrastructure, keeping everyone on their own septic, and refusing curbs, sidewalks, storm drains, or really much except very basic roads.  It's not a development pattern I want to live in, but it may end up being more sustainable that one acre lots with sidewalks and streetlights and centralized sewers.
I'm not sure Lake County, IL is spending that heavily on post-war infrastructure. The vast majority is spent on schools.

I'd hate to see what their tax bills might be in a few years.

There's nothing listed for infrastructure, so it might be falling on cities.  I don't know.  It's possible the counties and cities each have their own assessments, and what we're seeing in the chart is just the county portion.  I would guess what's listed as "cities and villages" is money the county doles out, not their total budgets.
« Last Edit: August 06, 2023, 10:30:35 AM by caleb »

clarkfan1979

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #25 on: August 07, 2023, 06:03:39 AM »
Makes me think I COULD pay cash for a $250K house and potentially rent it for $2K/month. If I net $1K per month after taxes/insurance/etc.,  is this a potentially good use of funds?


Terrible use of funds.   That's a simple 4.8% rate of return.  You can get that in CDs.

You have to consider the fact that real estate will tend to appreciate at roughly 4% a year even if you're not in a hot market. It should at least grow with inflation if nothing else. That's going to bring your ROI closer to 10% if your rental income is in the 4-6% range, and you should account for that.

I don't necessarily suggest that people try to pick a hot market, because that's really just speculating and you've got huge downside risk, but if you manage to pick a property that never goes up in value, then you've done something wrong.

According to my calculations 4%/year has been the national average for real estate appreciation since 2007, which is when I bought my first rental. Will 4% continue into the future? With the current inflationary market, I think it's a good benchmark to use. However, as others have said, all real estate is local.

Once a year, I compare the national average to my 3 rentals + primary. For 2007-2022, average appreciation has been 8.59%. If I'm getting 8.59% and the national average is 4%, that means some real estate appreciates less than 4%/year. My buddies townhouse that increased in value from 200K to 230K over 15 years, has an appreciation of just under 1%/year.

Going back to the 1% rule, most of my rentals are around .65% for sales price to rental income. Rentals in good locations that fall short of the 1% rule should have higher appreciation than the national average.

You don't have to sell to use the capital from the appreciation. I have done two separate cash-out re-fi's to buy 2 additional properties.

Paying cash for RE doesn't typically pencil out. Your returns are going to be similar to the stock market. However, leveraged RE with mortgage rates below 5% can produce some amazing results.

You can make money on rentals in 5 different ways.

1. You buy under market value
2. Annual Market Appreciation
3. Cash Flow
4. Principle Pay Down
5. Tax Advantages

If you have a rental that has a little bit of all 5, you can do very well on the overall return. It might not look impressive because no single metric really stands out. Those are the rentals that I try to grab.
 
« Last Edit: August 07, 2023, 06:06:39 AM by clarkfan1979 »

Sibley

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #26 on: August 08, 2023, 02:12:54 PM »
I think the Strong Towns argument is that much of the suburban US is headed for a similar reality in the coming decades as the bills for post-war infrastructure come due.

There probably is a certain wisdom in the exurban developments that resist centralized infrastructure, keeping everyone on their own septic, and refusing curbs, sidewalks, storm drains, or really much except very basic roads.  It's not a development pattern I want to live in, but it may end up being more sustainable that one acre lots with sidewalks and streetlights and centralized sewers.
I'm not sure Lake County, IL is spending that heavily on post-war infrastructure. The vast majority is spent on schools.

I'd hate to see what their tax bills might be in a few years.

There's nothing listed for infrastructure, so it might be falling on cities.  I don't know.  It's possible the counties and cities each have their own assessments, and what we're seeing in the chart is just the county portion.  I would guess what's listed as "cities and villages" is money the county doles out, not their total budgets.

Infrastructure would be lumped into one of the categories on the pie chart. Or not planned for at all.

If you think Lake County rates are bad, look at Cook County. They tend to be higher.

ChpBstrd

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #27 on: August 08, 2023, 04:25:22 PM »
As a comparison, keep in mind you can invest in real estate through stocks, bonds, and preferred stocks too.

MAA-I for example is a preferred stock from a massive apartment REIT that yields about 7.85% right now. Their free cash flow over the past 12 reported months is almost 24% higher than it was in 2021. Their ROE is 9.8%.

No, you don't have 4:1 leverage on local real estate price increases but I would argue that sort of thinking held more sway in the world before mortgage rates hit nearly 7%. MAA-I can probably spin off cash more quickly than a similarly sized down payment on most <1% rule properties, and that matters in a world where cash can be reinvested for high yields.

There are many more examples like this. I'm not saying they're better because I cannot know their future returns in advance, but the numbers are worth comparing as an alternative before you go breaking long-established rules of investing in RE.

aasdfadsf

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #28 on: August 12, 2023, 02:08:43 AM »
In an efficient market (okay, so it never really is), real estate isn't supposed to be far and away better than other investments. It is fair to assume that stocks will always give you returns close to those of real estate, and if that turns out not to be the case, then means that things are off-kilter and eventually some correction is going to have to happen. And when markets get way off, it may be that real estate is the one on the bad end and you'll lose your shirt (which has happened more times than someone has predicted the return of Jesus).

That's not to say that you can't get way above-market returns with real estate, because you totally can. But it's by doing what you can't do with the stock market, it's by knowing a local market. And a lot of other things. One great thing about real estate it that it gives you a lot of remunerative side gigs. 

The other day I replaced a hot water heater that a contractor wanted to charge me $1900 for. I did it myself for $700. So I make $1200 with four hours of work on a side gig. (Slightly less, because my tenants helped me and I paid them a rent deduction, because I love those guys).

Midwest_Handlebar

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #29 on: August 12, 2023, 07:33:11 AM »
As a comparison, keep in mind you can invest in real estate through stocks, bonds, and preferred stocks too.

MAA-I for example is a preferred stock from a massive apartment REIT that yields about 7.85% right now. Their free cash flow over the past 12 reported months is almost 24% higher than it was in 2021. Their ROE is 9.8%.

No, you don't have 4:1 leverage on local real estate price increases but I would argue that sort of thinking held more sway in the world before mortgage rates hit nearly 7%. MAA-I can probably spin off cash more quickly than a similarly sized down payment on most <1% rule properties, and that matters in a world where cash can be reinvested for high yields.

There are many more examples like this. I'm not saying they're better because I cannot know their future returns in advance, but the numbers are worth comparing as an alternative before you go breaking long-established rules of investing in RE.

I love real estate, but I would be VERY, VERY cautious buying REITs right now. They are all dependent on commercial loans that are being reset from <3% to >7%. It's going to be a bloodbath for the next couple years that has already started. This is a very different situation than buying a long term rental with 30 year fixed rate debt.

Decent article about the situation: https://www.newsweek.com/commercial-real-estate-crash-sparks-bank-collapse-fears-1812066
« Last Edit: August 12, 2023, 07:42:33 AM by Midwest_Handlebar »

ChpBstrd

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #30 on: August 12, 2023, 08:30:36 PM »
As a comparison, keep in mind you can invest in real estate through stocks, bonds, and preferred stocks too.

MAA-I for example is a preferred stock from a massive apartment REIT that yields about 7.85% right now. Their free cash flow over the past 12 reported months is almost 24% higher than it was in 2021. Their ROE is 9.8%.

No, you don't have 4:1 leverage on local real estate price increases but I would argue that sort of thinking held more sway in the world before mortgage rates hit nearly 7%. MAA-I can probably spin off cash more quickly than a similarly sized down payment on most <1% rule properties, and that matters in a world where cash can be reinvested for high yields.

There are many more examples like this. I'm not saying they're better because I cannot know their future returns in advance, but the numbers are worth comparing as an alternative before you go breaking long-established rules of investing in RE.

I love real estate, but I would be VERY, VERY cautious buying REITs right now. They are all dependent on commercial loans that are being reset from <3% to >7%. It's going to be a bloodbath for the next couple years that has already started. This is a very different situation than buying a long term rental with 30 year fixed rate debt.

Decent article about the situation: https://www.newsweek.com/commercial-real-estate-crash-sparks-bank-collapse-fears-1812066
This is true, but a person buying a property to rent right now faces a situation where 100% of their debt must immediately be financed at 7%. They also might need to dramatically increase rents. The REIT meanwhile has a more staggered loan structure and can raise rents over time. So whereas the REIT is making a smooth transition, new properties for landlords must make a more dramatic change.

In the long run, it’s the same deal, which is why the REIT is a comparable investment option. Whether RE is the place to be right now is another question, and I suspect the answer is no.

Midwest_Handlebar

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #31 on: August 13, 2023, 10:35:17 AM »
As a comparison, keep in mind you can invest in real estate through stocks, bonds, and preferred stocks too.

MAA-I for example is a preferred stock from a massive apartment REIT that yields about 7.85% right now. Their free cash flow over the past 12 reported months is almost 24% higher than it was in 2021. Their ROE is 9.8%.

No, you don't have 4:1 leverage on local real estate price increases but I would argue that sort of thinking held more sway in the world before mortgage rates hit nearly 7%. MAA-I can probably spin off cash more quickly than a similarly sized down payment on most <1% rule properties, and that matters in a world where cash can be reinvested for high yields.

There are many more examples like this. I'm not saying they're better because I cannot know their future returns in advance, but the numbers are worth comparing as an alternative before you go breaking long-established rules of investing in RE.

I love real estate, but I would be VERY, VERY cautious buying REITs right now. They are all dependent on commercial loans that are being reset from <3% to >7%. It's going to be a bloodbath for the next couple years that has already started. This is a very different situation than buying a long term rental with 30 year fixed rate debt.

Decent article about the situation: https://www.newsweek.com/commercial-real-estate-crash-sparks-bank-collapse-fears-1812066
This is true, but a person buying a property to rent right now faces a situation where 100% of their debt must immediately be financed at 7%. They also might need to dramatically increase rents. The REIT meanwhile has a more staggered loan structure and can raise rents over time. So whereas the REIT is making a smooth transition, new properties for landlords must make a more dramatic change.

In the long run, it’s the same deal, which is why the REIT is a comparable investment option. Whether RE is the place to be right now is another question, and I suspect the answer is no.


I respectfully disagree that a REIT is a comparable investment option to residential real estate right now. The biggest difference is financing. Yes if you buy a property right now you'll finance it with 7%ish, but it's fixed for 30 years. In commercial real estate 99% of loans are variable with revaluation periods. Many deals in the past couple years have been financed with short term bridge debt or 3/5 year debt. When this debt goes from under 3% to over 7% percent all the investors equity goes away and the bank will not refinance. This is because they are valued on Net Operating Income, not comparable sales. You're left with a big "cash in" event, or the asset goes back to the bank. Many REITs are insolvent right now and don't know it.

Also, don't get me started on office market right now, we all know what COVID did to this asset class.
« Last Edit: August 13, 2023, 10:36:51 AM by Midwest_Handlebar »

SilentC

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #32 on: August 13, 2023, 01:46:30 PM »
As a comparison, keep in mind you can invest in real estate through stocks, bonds, and preferred stocks too.

MAA-I for example is a preferred stock from a massive apartment REIT that yields about 7.85% right now. Their free cash flow over the past 12 reported months is almost 24% higher than it was in 2021. Their ROE is 9.8%.

No, you don't have 4:1 leverage on local real estate price increases but I would argue that sort of thinking held more sway in the world before mortgage rates hit nearly 7%. MAA-I can probably spin off cash more quickly than a similarly sized down payment on most <1% rule properties, and that matters in a world where cash can be reinvested for high yields.

There are many more examples like this. I'm not saying they're better because I cannot know their future returns in advance, but the numbers are worth comparing as an alternative before you go breaking long-established rules of investing in RE.

I love real estate, but I would be VERY, VERY cautious buying REITs right now. They are all dependent on commercial loans that are being reset from <3% to >7%. It's going to be a bloodbath for the next couple years that has already started. This is a very different situation than buying a long term rental with 30 year fixed rate debt.

Decent article about the situation: https://www.newsweek.com/commercial-real-estate-crash-sparks-bank-collapse-fears-1812066
This is true, but a person buying a property to rent right now faces a situation where 100% of their debt must immediately be financed at 7%. They also might need to dramatically increase rents. The REIT meanwhile has a more staggered loan structure and can raise rents over time. So whereas the REIT is making a smooth transition, new properties for landlords must make a more dramatic change.

In the long run, it’s the same deal, which is why the REIT is a comparable investment option. Whether RE is the place to be right now is another question, and I suspect the answer is no.


I respectfully disagree that a REIT is a comparable investment option to residential real estate right now. The biggest difference is financing. Yes if you buy a property right now you'll finance it with 7%ish, but it's fixed for 30 years. In commercial real estate 99% of loans are variable with revaluation periods. Many deals in the past couple years have been financed with short term bridge debt or 3/5 year debt. When this debt goes from under 3% to over 7% percent all the investors equity goes away and the bank will not refinance. This is because they are valued on Net Operating Income, not comparable sales. You're left with a big "cash in" event, or the asset goes back to the bank. Many REITs are insolvent right now and don't know it.

Also, don't get me started on office market right now, we all know what COVID did to this asset class.

The residential REITs like INVH use swaps and issue unsecured notes, not 30 year notes but if they want to lock in 7% for 7 or 10 years they can and have done so.  INVH at 12/31 was 98% fixed rate payer but a lot of their loan swaps roll off in ~2025 so they will have more floating rate exposure or higher rates.  They may already be entering more swaps to lock in 3%s until recently 10yr rate.  Just an FYI.  It’s very worth reading the transcripts and filings for INVH and AMR to learn about rental real estate investing and the state of the market.

pnw_guy

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #33 on: August 14, 2023, 08:45:45 PM »
There are certain markets and years where it’s simply a bad (risky) time to be a landlord. Be patient, and don’t chase bad deals or force yourself into a losing situation. 

I agree with uniwelder about not trying to be a first time landlord in a place where you do not live.

What would your advice be for people in HCOL areas? What would be a good way to get started?

Just wondering because all housing nuts where I live.

Metalcat

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #34 on: August 15, 2023, 03:50:21 AM »
There are certain markets and years where it’s simply a bad (risky) time to be a landlord. Be patient, and don’t chase bad deals or force yourself into a losing situation. 

I agree with uniwelder about not trying to be a first time landlord in a place where you do not live.

What would your advice be for people in HCOL areas? What would be a good way to get started?

Just wondering because all housing nuts where I live.

As I said in my earlier reply, there are just some markets you don't buy rentals in.

nereo

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #35 on: August 15, 2023, 03:59:00 AM »
There are certain markets and years where it’s simply a bad (risky) time to be a landlord. Be patient, and don’t chase bad deals or force yourself into a losing situation. 

I agree with uniwelder about not trying to be a first time landlord in a place where you do not live.

What would your advice be for people in HCOL areas? What would be a good way to get started?

Just wondering because all housing nuts where I live.

As I said in my earlier reply, there are just some markets you don't buy rentals in.

Exactly. Part of building a strong portfolio is passing on potential assets when it doesn’t make financial sense.

I would point out this isn’t a HCOL situation per se - there are HCOL and LCOL areas where one can find solid rental opportunities, just as the converse is true.

pnw_guy

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #36 on: August 15, 2023, 07:57:15 AM »
There are certain markets and years where it’s simply a bad (risky) time to be a landlord. Be patient, and don’t chase bad deals or force yourself into a losing situation. 

I agree with uniwelder about not trying to be a first time landlord in a place where you do not live.

What would your advice be for people in HCOL areas? What would be a good way to get started?

Just wondering because all housing nuts where I live.

As I said in my earlier reply, there are just some markets you don't buy rentals in.

What I’m trying to say that if I’m not supposed to invest at a distance as a newbie and I’m not supposed to buy local in my HCOL area, what other options are there?!

nereo

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #37 on: August 15, 2023, 08:41:26 AM »
There are certain markets and years where it’s simply a bad (risky) time to be a landlord. Be patient, and don’t chase bad deals or force yourself into a losing situation. 

I agree with uniwelder about not trying to be a first time landlord in a place where you do not live.

What would your advice be for people in HCOL areas? What would be a good way to get started?

Just wondering because all housing nuts where I live.

As I said in my earlier reply, there are just some markets you don't buy rentals in.

What I’m trying to say that if I’m not supposed to invest at a distance as a newbie and I’m not supposed to buy local in my HCOL area, what other options are there?!

I'm not sure how to be more clear.  You don't; You wait. Unless a property comes along that makes financial sense, don't force it. Again, you bring up 'HCOL area', when that's not really a determining factor. Some HCOL areas are great for landlords. Some stink.  Ignore COL and focus on metrics like cashflow.


Regarding "What other options are there".... the sky is the limit.  Certainly there's the classic investment options (stocks, bonds, ETFs).  As discussed upthread you can focus on REITs, some of which operate in distinct markets or target certain types of properties. Then there's looking outside residential real estate and consider commercial or industrial properties. And while I highly discourage buying a rental property in another state you've never lived in several hours away, it's not a terrible idea to look at properties the next town over if you don't mind driving over there several times each year. Real estate is hyper local, and I've seen terrible markets that were a 30 minute drive from incredible markets.

Metalcat

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #38 on: August 15, 2023, 10:42:26 AM »
There are certain markets and years where it’s simply a bad (risky) time to be a landlord. Be patient, and don’t chase bad deals or force yourself into a losing situation. 

I agree with uniwelder about not trying to be a first time landlord in a place where you do not live.

What would your advice be for people in HCOL areas? What would be a good way to get started?

Just wondering because all housing nuts where I live.

As I said in my earlier reply, there are just some markets you don't buy rentals in.

What I’m trying to say that if I’m not supposed to invest at a distance as a newbie and I’m not supposed to buy local in my HCOL area, what other options are there?!

Well...if you read my first response in this thread, you will see that you absolutely *can* invest long distance as a newbie. There's no rule that says you can't invest long distance, it just comes with its own set of risks that you need to understand and manage.

If you don't feel comfortable with that and your local market isn't good, then you just don't invest in rentals.

There are very good reasons the vast majority of folks don't invest in real estate. It's not a given that it's a good idea. When it is a good idea it can be a great idea, but that's only when the circumstances are correct.

If yours aren't, then it's not a good idea.

Freedomin5

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #39 on: August 15, 2023, 11:25:21 PM »
Maybe the question should be, "How do I know if a property is a good deal or if a particular local market is good?"

I'm not sure what criteria would fit with your local area, OP, but I can share our decision-making process when selecting an investment property.

Property 1:
- VHCOL city
- Property did not meet the 1% rule (it was at ~0.5%)
- Appreciation in the area at the time was around 20% per year
- Neighborhood was popular with young professionals
- Condo was in a very rentable neighborhood, next to a subway station
- Bought a 1 bed 1 bath luxury condo that would appeal to young professionals with a high, stable income

We were designing a situation that would give us minimum hassle and we wanted capital appreciation rather than cashflow, and we were willing to trade some cashflow for less hassle. We also wanted to get our foot in the property market. The rent covered the mortgage payments, property tax, and management fee.

Property 2:
- MCOL city
- Property did not meet the 1% rule (it was at ~0.5%)
- Appreciation approximately 10% a year
- Close to a major university, neighborhood popular with college students and graduate students
- Lots and lots of rentals in the area
- Bought a 3 bed 3 bath well-kept, older house that would appeal to graduate students/young families, or college students looking to rent a place together
- Neighborhood is quiet and safe, nestled amongst million-dollar homes, away from popular "party" neighborhoods, but still walking distance from campus
- Plan is to potentially move into the unit when we repatriate

The rent covers property taxes, management fees, and most of the mortgage (interest rates are really high now, so it doesn't cover all of the mortgage). This would probably not be an ideal situation for most people. For us, it works, as we have special circumstances that limit where we can invest, and we are not looking for cashflow. This situation allows us to meet some other goals we have.

We are very very very selective when it comes to tenants, and we make sure our places are attractive to a certain type of tenant. That means that everything is professionally maintained, in excellent working order, and clean. We don't DIY unless we know we can DIY to professional, legal standards. We don't cut corners. We work with a realtor to complete credit checks and to check references.

What has worked for us is to think from the perspective of a prospective tenant. We ask ourselves, who is my ideal tenant? What would they look for in a place? And then we try to make our place a bit better than the competition. We also look for rentable neighborhoods -- areas where there are a lot of renters. For example, with House 1, we are targeting young working professionals. With House 2, we are targeting graduate students.

This is why people typically say you should buy in areas in which you are familiar, because it is important to know your market. It's important to know what type of people want to rent in a certain neighborhood, and what they are looking for. Then buy something that would appeal to them.

Could we have made more money with some other type of rental? Probably, but it would've come with a lot of extra headaches. I don't claim to be a real estate investment expert -- just a normal person who has some extra cash and an interest in real estate. In our case, this works for us. We have low turnover, we have excellent tenants, and our units are kept spotless.

clarkfan1979

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #40 on: August 31, 2023, 10:11:35 AM »
I think the Strong Towns argument is that much of the suburban US is headed for a similar reality in the coming decades as the bills for post-war infrastructure come due.

There probably is a certain wisdom in the exurban developments that resist centralized infrastructure, keeping everyone on their own septic, and refusing curbs, sidewalks, storm drains, or really much except very basic roads.  It's not a development pattern I want to live in, but it may end up being more sustainable that one acre lots with sidewalks and streetlights and centralized sewers.
I'm not sure Lake County, IL is spending that heavily on post-war infrastructure. The vast majority is spent on schools.

I'd hate to see what their tax bills might be in a few years.

There's nothing listed for infrastructure, so it might be falling on cities.  I don't know.  It's possible the counties and cities each have their own assessments, and what we're seeing in the chart is just the county portion.  I would guess what's listed as "cities and villages" is money the county doles out, not their total budgets.

Infrastructure would be lumped into one of the categories on the pie chart. Or not planned for at all.

If you think Lake County rates are bad, look at Cook County. They tend to be higher.

Based on the data, Lake County (2.95% & $8,104) is worse than Cook County (2.19% & $5,605).

https://smartasset.com/taxes/illinois-property-tax-calculator


Swish

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #41 on: October 03, 2023, 11:22:51 AM »
First time, long time, etc.

Looking for my first rental. $500K to invest, now what?

A few more detailed questions:

1. Typical 3/2 SFHs are all around the 0.66% rule (I.E. hard pass). Are 2% deals dead? Are 1% deals dead? In my experience there are lots but they often are disguised as hard work. The more blood sweat and tears you add the better the returns. The most important part is negotiating a good price based on math and reasonable expected returns. In HCOL areas my experience is that flipping can often be the better strategy vs renting as the appreciation for strongly undervalued homes is much better once remedied. I'm in Central, FL, fwiw.

2. Where do you all analyze purchase prices vs potential rental income? Anything more sophisticated (data driven) than, uh, Zillow's SALE tab vs. the RENTAL tab? I look at price and estimate free cashflow using a spreadsheet. My model I am a long term buy and hold investor so I do not speculate on appreciation unless I am looking for a refinance to free up equity for another purchase. Even in that case I use very conservative appreciation numbers. Market rents and expenses are the most important part for me.

3. How do you know a market is saturated with 3/2 rentals? Again, anything more sophisticated that "daaggum, that's a lot of rental dots on Zillow?" Check the local rental listings and tally them up and then check the number of available homes with the land titles company. In my community for example there are 15,763 homes. Of those there are currently 26 listed for rent so there is a huge shortage of available rentals right now. A simpler test is ask a current landlord with a vacancy that is similar to your target property and ask them how many replies to their adds they are getting and how long did it take them to rent it. Also not sure in the USA but Canada lists vacancy data by city so that is another indicator.


THX, been looking into rentals for A LONG TIME and now feeling like I have enough liquid + cushion to work out of my modest-spending/investing comfort zone. I always tell new investors to buy one try it for a year or two and if they like it buy at least 4 more. Less than 5 is way way way too stressful. You have all the work and none of the benefits. If they hate it and are always stressed out from one property sell it and buy bonds.

Shooting for $5K - $10K of rental income, already fixing up ADU at my primary for $1500/monthly (I hope). Renting out all or part of your current home is an excellent way to fast track your rental property growth.

TY

Best of luck!!! Rentals is not for everyone and it takes the right kind of person to be both a reasonable landlord and not be taken advantage of by contractors, tenants etc. I'd 100% do it all over again despite some very stressful situations!

Swish

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #42 on: October 03, 2023, 11:29:34 AM »

The 1% rule is a proxy for cash flow, but it isn't always accurate in estimating cash flow because it ignores mortgage rates, taxes and insurance costs. As a result, I ignore the 1% rule. I run the numbers on actual cash flow.  +1 THIS!!!! when interest rates are low you can buy much lower than 1% and when they are higher you need more than 1%. The 1% rule is literally napkin math to help filter which properties you are going to waste your time looking at.

The consensus on this forum is that because it falls very short of the 1% rule (.65%), it's a bad rental because it doesn't have cash flow. However, that is just not true. It has $1,025/month of cash flow with $425/month of principle pay down in a desirable location with 0% vacancy. I would buy those rentals all day long. Again so true! a lot of people just took a rule of thumb and immediately missed out on great opportunities using cheap debt.
 

ducky19

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Re: 1% Deals Don't Exist | Local Market Saturated with Rentals, Now What?
« Reply #43 on: October 03, 2023, 12:46:57 PM »
We have three rentals in our small midwestern town, all within a half mile from our house. My number one piece of advice is to know your market. We bought our last one sight unseen (we saw pictures, but didn't actually do a walkthrough), however the house was already on my mental checklist of houses that fit my criteria, and we knew that 2 bedroom/1 bath houses in our town don't stay on the market more than a few hours. We purchased it for $60k cash, will have another $15k in renovations, but it will rent for $900/mo. Our cash flow will depend on how much of our cash we want back when we mortgage it, but it should be in the 10-12% range.

Which leads to my second piece of advice - don't tie up too much of your own money when you can use the bank's. Run through multiple scenarios based on how much cash you'd like to recoup. In the above case, I looked at mortgages at $40k, $50k, and $60k. Our cash flow is greater if we mortgage less, but our ROI is lower (10% vs. 12%). At $60k, not only is our ROI higher, it frees up that cash to wash, rinse, and repeat with the next house.

Having cash on hand to buy a rental does put you in a position of power as you'll be able to offer better terms and a quicker closing. But don't leave that money as equity afterwards, leverage OPM as much as you can so you can repeat the process over and over.