Author Topic: The Forecaster  (Read 1720 times)

katthjul

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The Forecaster
« on: September 03, 2015, 01:09:29 PM »
A really interesting documentary about Martin Armstrong who seems to be able to predict how the market will move.

Quote
MARTIN ARMSTRONG, once a US based trillion dollar financial adviser, used the number pi to predict economic turning points with precision. When some big New York bankers asked him to join the club to help them to take over Russia, he refused to join the manipulation. A few days later the FBI stormed his offices accusing him of a 3 billion dollar Ponzi Scheme - an attempt to stop him talking about the real Ponzi Scheme of debts that the US has build up over the years and which he thinks starts to collapse after October 1, 2015, a major pi turning point he is predicting.

Trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=46JsKXtQyBg

FIRE me

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Re: The Forecaster
« Reply #1 on: September 03, 2015, 05:15:10 PM »
I'm a lot more impressed with Peter Schiff. He didn't just predict the recession. He predicted the reasons for the Great Recession with astonishing specificity.

All while being rudely laughed at and mocked by Ben Stein and other cable TV talking heads.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfascZSTU4o

katthjul

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Re: The Forecaster
« Reply #2 on: September 04, 2015, 04:36:34 AM »
I watched the whole clip, but I don't think Schiff's prediction was very good; the most important (and hardest) part of predicting the market is the timing of the event. He was correct that the real estate bubble would end, but didn't predict the year ("whether it starts in 07 or 8").

If the documentary is correct about the accuracy of Armstrong's models, then he can predict economic events to the year. There are a few examples mentioned where his predictions were accurate to the month and even the day. The documentary came out in 2014 and does include a list of predictions for 1998-2015:

Code: [Select]
1998 Collapse of Russia
1999 Low Gold & Oil
2000 Technology Bubble
2002 Bottom US Share Market
2007 Real Estate Bubble, Oil hits $100
2009 Start of Sovereign Debt Crisis
2011-15 Japan Economic Decline
      EURO begins to crack due to debt crisis
2015.75 Sovereign Debt Big Bang

2Cent

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Re: The Forecaster
« Reply #3 on: September 04, 2015, 05:41:30 AM »
Forecasting is always easy afterwards. And of the loads random forecasts a few will always be right. What I'm wondering is, if people really believe this forecast will it not happen when people take precautions, or will it happen because people take precautions.

katthjul

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Re: The Forecaster
« Reply #4 on: September 04, 2015, 05:57:06 AM »
Oh yes, there were an example of that too. He advised a client to leave the market immediately once because a certain market would drop that very day. Turned out that this client was a major trader in that market and his selling off caused the market to drop.