Essentially, it seems to me, this is the issue:
I'm wondering, how other people deal or dealt with the emotional challenges of "When is enough enough?"
You haven't yet convinced yourself you have enough. You're in doubt that your money will last.
Thus the number tell me that I'm FI and should be able to RE. (If not, please do me a great favor and point out the flaws in my calculation). However I just don't feel that I am there.
Okay, so let's see. You say your WR is 2.2%, and of course that never would have failed historically.
Let's look at it besides a WR %.
You spend 55k. You have 2.71MM.
If you got a flat 0% real return (so it increased the same as inflation, so your spending also increased with inflation, so we'll just use real dollars), you could live off that 2.71MM for 49 years. Since you are 48, that would make you 97 years old!
Do you think we'll have 0% real returns for the next 49 years (half a century!)?
Remember, the stock market's long term average is about 8.5%, adjusting for dividends and inflation--11.6% nominal, without inflation.
But let's say you don't get that 8.5% average. Let's say you don't even get half that, 4.25%. Let's say you just get a 1% real return. A measly 1% return.
Your money would last until you're 116.
Do you have enough? I think so. I think we'll see more than a 1% return over the next 68 years. I think it's more likely we see returns close to the average. Even if we see below average returns, say, returns that are
half the historical average, you could live to be 100 and you'd be left with $13,625,524 in today's (real) dollars!
Sometimes a number like 2.2% WR doesn't encapsulate the safety buffer you've accumulated. 1% returns lasting until you're 116? Half the historical average leaving you with 8 figures upon a death at age 100?
Yeah, I think you should start looking at moving past the emotions of "do I have enough?" You do. :)
