I actually emailed him after this with the following questions, he said he might get to them in a subsequent post. I agree that the bond-heavy leaning up front is a big part of what's making it wonky:

Hi there, I was discussing your latest post on retirement withdrawals with a couple people, and it seemed strange that a rebalancing method did so much more poorly than the equal withdrawals. Then we realized that since stocks have a higher return over the long run, **rebalancing would almost always end up in selling more stocks, thus lowering the return.**

Average expected portfolio value is one thing, but the success rates are probably the most important thing for early retirees. **I thought that your results leaned towards CAPE mainly because you started with a 50/50 split which is so bond-heavy that there's no way you could sell enough bonds to make your portfolio risky enough to fail.** The CAPE strategy then works because it sells more bonds than any of the other strategies, and the rest of the strategies follow in order from there. Have you run a scenario where you sell off only bonds? How does that hold up compared to the other scenarios? If you started at an 80/20 or 90/10 stock/bond split, would that make the CAPE/equal withdrawal success rate lower than rebalancing?

Lastly, what about early retirees looking at a 50-year time horizon? What strategy holds up best over a really long term retirement? This is also why I'm interested in looking at a more equity-tilted portfolio than what you have modeled. I imagine the success rates will take a nosedive when looking at longer term models.