OP you asked some GREAT questions, your last one was "would you do it" and the answers are going to be mostly useless to you since everyone is coming from their own "place" in FIRE and situations are so wildly variable they are probably not good proxies for you except for those (who have mostly chimed in) who are in somewhat similar situations.
A few points I have NOT seen mentioned...
- The economic impact of the last few months has not fully manifested. I think it's short sighted for anyone (not accusing you of this...) to assume that "today" is going to look like "six months from now".
So, I think you have to ask yourself, what does your picture look like (financially etc.) if the following conditions occur:
- Interest rates climb as the economy sours
- Returns on investments plummet
- Housing markets crater
- Rental income drops due to high supply and lack of ability to pay
- Inflation begins running rampant
etc. etc. etc.
What would you situation be in the "worst case" as described above? Could your lifestyle survive the "stress test" I've laid out? Granted, there is a possibility that NONE of those items occur, which it appears that you would be just fine if only one or two of them (or none) did occur. BUT, what would your plan be if several or all of them DID become reality?
If you can answer that, (basically, do the fear setting exercise as described by several authors) and feel confident in your answers, then you'll likely have more confidence in your decision.
As for me, I would not burn that much cash with such uncertainty in the next 18 months BUT, that's just me. I used to be a "ALL DEBT MUST BE ELIMINATED" kind of guy but have I have a military pension so I don't "play" by the same rules as some. If I didn't have that locked down income, I'd abhor home mortgages a little more but with it, am more comfortable with debt considering I don't have to leave the house to have income.
Lastly, I'll never buy/rent/lease go near anything with an HOA, that's just me, it's a personal hangup, I'd assume not DRIVE next to a home with an HOA (smile) due to my desire for other folks staying out of my business BUT, as many have said, you have to "pay to play" and if HOA payments are the price of entry and it's your dream spot, I guess you gotta do what you gotta do. I might do a calculation on the impact of that HOA though, I.E. how much cash would you need to service that HOA over your expected time spent living there?
Best of luck, it's not an easy decision BUT, it's not life ending either, I hope it works out the way you want it to. One last method of making the call, flip a coin... assign the outcomes before you flip it (heads you buy, tails you walk away or heads you buy in cash, tails you figure out a way to get a mortgage) and then flip the coin. The outcome isn't important. What matters is what you WANT the outcome to be as the coin nears the apex of the flip... That's one way to "touch base" with your deeper thought processes (though we shouldn't always follow them blindly?).