As a recent FIREee I find this thread to be one of the more interesting rehashes of withdrawal rates that I've read lately, so I'm chiming in with my 2 cents as a way of posting to follow.
My plan is to use the traditional/standard 4% SWR model starting at age 46 with a 90%/10% target AA, rebalancing annually. I also plan to use the POPR (pay-out-period-reset) model, AKA "retire again and again" to increase my withdrawal over time and reduce mean ending portfolio, while keeping portfolio depletion risk roughly constant. In my written plan, I also plan to check my actual spending against my portfolio value twice per year[1] and institute contingency measures if my WR is getting too high. "Too high" is defined as exceeding a 4% withdrawal rate, which is pretty strict. In reality I might wait a little bit to see if the portfolio recovers. In my case, a 4% withdrawal represents about 125% of my typical recent spending, and perhaps 150% of my bare minimum spending.
Even though the above is my official written plan, I think what ARS posted in reply #52 is what really happens - you live your life, spend as life requires, monitor things, and make common sense adjustments if things are going "well" or "poorly". Looking at the graphs up-thread, even though I have more ice in my veins than most, I think I would be between nervous and panicked in about 1932 and 1974 and would be tightening the purse strings as well as filling out the Walmart application regardless of whether my official plan was VPW or 4%.
I also think there is more nuance in particular situations. I've run all the simulation tools with my particular numbers as exactly as I can get them, but my particular-very-specific situation with regards to income, taxes, spending, budget, contingency plans, risk tolerance and so forth is both very unique to me and becomes subjective. Is there a 42.8% chance that my Social Security estimate is too high, or is it more that I've just de-rated it "enough" for my particular situation?
I have been surprised at how much my perspective has changed from hyperanalysis/spreadsheet/98.37%vs99.44% before FIRE-ing to "it's irie mon"/"hakuna matata" after FIRE-ing. And it's only been a few weeks. I used to get annoyed that posts from most FIREees with more experience were fairly generic and vague and laissez-faire and not cut-and-dried "If the market drops between 15% and 30% for between 3 months and 1 year, I will reallocate to 65%/35% and switch to withdrawing from my cash reserves for 7.9 months". I wanted that pre-arranged clarity. Now that I've been FIREd for a little while, I think I understand better where they're coming from and am pretty much feel the same way myself.
As the saying goes, "measure with a micrometer, cut with an axe".
[1] Who am I kidding? I check my WR basically every day to two decimal places. Using yesterday's closing prices I was at 3.56%...