Author Topic: Asset Allocation Post Fire  (Read 15443 times)

NorcalBlue

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Asset Allocation Post Fire
« on: November 19, 2015, 12:28:50 PM »
Greetings all - was hoping to get some advice from you experienced folks:

A little background:

1.  ER'd in March of 2015 after being laid off
2.  42 years old and Single
3.  $1.3M in liquid funds

Issue:

- Although I've been striving towards ER for many years, I didn't do much research on investing.  After the crash of 08, I started hoarding Cash (dumb move I now realize).  Since I Fire'D in March, I've done a lot of reading and have started to reinvest into the Market in order to leverage the 4% rule long term (My current expenses could be sustained a t 2.5-3.0% SWR - $30k per year).

My current allocation is as follows:

-47% Stocks (VTI)
-7% Bonds and REITS (BND, VNQ)
-47% Cash (1-1.10% between MySavings and Barclays)

I realize my cash balance is still WAY to high (I'd like to have a 75/25 allocation stocks to bonds), but I'm really having trouble going any higher on my stock allocation considering the CAPE and PE levels of this market.  I know the studies all say to just invest the lump sum all at once, but I'm just so conditioned in getting a sale prices on things, it's really tough for me.  I did manage to invest and additional 250k during the August swoon, but I realize my Cash portion is still way to high in order to execute the 4% rule.  I'm also very wary of investing any more in Bonds considering the Interest Rate risk at the moment - it just seems like I'd be throwing money away by investing in bonds currently.

Anyway, any advice you could give would be greatly appreciated.

Tyler

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Re: Asset Allocation Post Fire
« Reply #1 on: November 19, 2015, 12:53:54 PM »
By my calculations, with a sub-3% WR you're actually in a decent position even with 47% cash.  While I think there are much better long-term options with that money, I see no reason to rush into anything you don't understand or aren't comfortable with.  The funds you do have are all quite good and worth building into your future plan. So for now, focus on the issue of finding the right AA rather than the temporary cash position.

Maybe you can start by browsing various passive portfolio options.  Based on your reaction to 2008, pay particular attention to the max drawdowns during that timeframe and look for options that would not have spooked you out of the markets.  Pick a few that seem interesting, and maybe find a book or two at the library to learn more.  If your stated 75/25 portfolio goal already passes that test, you're in good shape.

Also, based on your comment about liking to find things on sale, you might also read up on dividend strategies where evaluating companies is part of the process. You don't have to do that with all of your money, either.  Maybe you can set aside 10% to actively manage to meet that emotional need and put the rest in a passive AA.

Once you find the AA you want, don't fret too much about finding the perfect transition methodology with the absolute best returns.  You'll never know the answer ahead of time.  Just focus on a good enough one that will get you where you want to be.  If you've picked an AA that you'll truly hold for the long run, any inefficiencies in buy-in price will look like chump change compared to the eventual compound returns. 
« Last Edit: November 20, 2015, 07:17:49 AM by Tyler »

MsRichLife

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Re: Asset Allocation Post Fire
« Reply #2 on: November 20, 2015, 01:22:21 AM »
You and I sound very alike. I'm 38 and had a similar reaction to '08. I also hold about 50% of my investment portfolio in cash (it was nearly 100% a year ago).

What helps me to sleep at night while investing in the market is the following:

- Working out my target asset allocation in advance. At this stage, I've focussed on implementing the permanent portfolio (per the link up in this thread).
- Dollar cost averaging (DCA) into the market, rather than dumping it in all at once
- Within the bounds of my pre-determined investment strategy, buying on the dips. I tend to buy Stocks when they go below the 60 day moving average and Gold when it goes below the 200 days moving average. I also tend to buy high yielding stocks to further insulate my psyche from the price volatility.

I know that many people on this forum would likely think I'm too conservative, but I know how it felt to lose big during '08 and I'm not prepared to go through that again when I'm no longer earning a good wage to offset the losses.







arebelspy

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Re: Asset Allocation Post Fire
« Reply #3 on: November 20, 2015, 03:33:25 AM »
I suggest you read JLCollins' stock series, especially the big ugly event:
http://jlcollinsnh.com/2012/04/29/stocks-part-iv-the-big-ugly-event/

Pick an AA that won't fluctuate that much--maybe even as low equities as 60% bonds, 40% stocks.
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Tyler

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Re: Asset Allocation Post Fire
« Reply #4 on: November 20, 2015, 08:45:53 AM »
- Within the bounds of my pre-determined investment strategy, buying on the dips. I tend to buy Stocks when they go below the 60 day moving average and Gold when it goes below the 200 days moving average. I also tend to buy high yielding stocks to further insulate my psyche from the price volatility.

I know that many people on this forum would likely think I'm too conservative, but I know how it felt to lose big during '08 and I'm not prepared to go through that again when I'm no longer earning a good wage to offset the losses.

Very good point about buying the dips.  Another method is to always put new money into the lagging asset in your portfolio (the one trailing its target percentage).  This has the double benefit of always buying an asset "on sale" and keeping the portfolio balanced at your target AA.  It works particularly well with portfolios (like the PP) with several uncorrelated assets where something is generally doing well and something else is "on sale".   

FWIW, I believe the only financial plan that is "too conservative" is one that does not meet your financial needs.  Everyone's situation is different, and there's much more to wise financial management than squeezing the last possible tenth of percent out of your returns.  It sounds like you've learned what works for you and have realistic expectations about your investments.  You should be proud of that!

NorcalBlue

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Re: Asset Allocation Post Fire
« Reply #5 on: November 20, 2015, 02:50:30 PM »
Thanks for the thoughts fellas.  I've read through Mr. Collins stock series several times now and am convinced his passive approach is the way to go for me.  Probably want at least 75% in VTI moving forward.  That being said, I might ramp up to only 60% and keep some powder dry if a correction happens.  I know timing the market is contrary to Mr. Collins' strategy, but I'm just not wild about the current CAPE ratios and PE of this market.  It seems "frothy" to say the least....of course, I'm probably dead wrong about that, which is why 60% seems like a good compromise. 

An even bigger concern I have is getting my allocation in Bonds up to 20%.  Dumping $200k into Bonds right now seems like a huge risk.  It just seems like throwing away money at this point with rates so low and the FED bound to raise rates.  I guess it's best to just hold your nose and throw it into them in case of a deflationary event.

I think I'll go with an initial 60/10/30 (Stocks, Bonds, Cash) allocation which will keep some powder dry.  And have an ultimate goal of 75/20/5 allocation.

arebelspy

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Re: Asset Allocation Post Fire
« Reply #6 on: November 20, 2015, 02:55:09 PM »
Sounds like a good plan to me.
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
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Money Badger

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Re: Asset Allocation Post Fire
« Reply #7 on: November 21, 2015, 07:13:40 PM »
+1 to the "follow your gut" comments here FWIW.   And congrats on excellent stache accumulation!   This "blog/forum/lifestyle" of MMM is somewhat better at managing "defense" such as lifestyle and spending while the classic rules of index funds and age based allocations take care of the "offense" side of money.   That said, you can read the posts of the sages on this board and figure out who has enough experience to listen to them

I'm 60% cash in the liquid accounts at moment FWIW and relatively high net worth.   Just not comfortable with a once in a lifetime run of easy money and the laws of capitalism being played with by the politicians that have to be paid for sooner or later (IMO it'll be sooner).   And I'm working in a company that provides "business to business" products and seeing some signs of early cost "trimming" by the leadership of several of our customers in their FY2016 budgets.   Smells "toppy" right now...

NorcalBlue

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Re: Asset Allocation Post Fire
« Reply #8 on: November 22, 2015, 10:46:47 AM »
Thanks for the replies and help folks - its much appreciated.

I guess I'm more cautious at this point as the making "easy money" days for me via a jobby job are probably over so taking huge risks do concern me a bit.  I hate to envision my portfolio dropping by half and then having to return to work with outdated qualifications (I was in the financial software business).  That being said, I'm not comfortable have nearly 50 percent of my NW in cash either.  I'll probably continue to DCA into the market - I know the studies don't agree with this approach, but I feel more comfortable DCA'ing with the market currently sitting at a CAPE of 25.

JN2

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Re: Asset Allocation Post Fire
« Reply #9 on: November 23, 2015, 10:14:24 AM »
>> I'm not comfortable have nearly 50 percent of my NW in cash either. <<

I have FIREd and I have 100% of my NW in cash. Works for me, but YMMV :)

arebelspy

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Asset Allocation Post Fire
« Reply #10 on: November 23, 2015, 11:04:51 AM »
>> I'm not comfortable have nearly 50 percent of my NW in cash either. <<

I have FIREd and I have 100% of my NW in cash. Works for me, but YMMV :)

Whoah. I hope you have a WR of much less than 1%, maybe even negative.  Inflation is gonna kill you, depending on the length of time you need to cover (and unless there's stuff you're not mentioning, like SS/pensions/annuities or something).
« Last Edit: November 23, 2015, 11:06:26 AM by arebelspy »
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about me, this Business Insider profile tells the story pretty well.
I (rarely) blog at AdventuringAlong.com. Check out the Now page to see what I'm up to currently.

JN2

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Re: Asset Allocation Post Fire
« Reply #11 on: December 01, 2015, 12:13:09 PM »
>> unless there's stuff you're not mentioning, like SS/pensions/annuities or something <<

ars: exactly. 12.5% WR for 8 years -> zero at age 66. SS/pensions etc then pick up the rest. A die broke strategy :)

andy85

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Re: Asset Allocation Post Fire
« Reply #12 on: December 02, 2015, 07:05:29 AM »

Maybe you can start by browsing various passive portfolio options

Dude...what a badass site. THANK YOU!!!!!

Exflyboy

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Re: Asset Allocation Post Fire
« Reply #13 on: December 04, 2015, 12:23:17 PM »

Maybe you can start by browsing various passive portfolio options

Dude...what a badass site. THANK YOU!!!!!

I agree!.. From what I can see from a quick scan is the more of a total stock portfolio you own the better the long term returns.

So keep the min you are comfortable with in bonds cash.

Personally my bonds and cash equal about 9 years worth of current living expenses... But I do have some pension money on top of that.

arebelspy

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Re: Asset Allocation Post Fire
« Reply #14 on: December 04, 2015, 08:45:41 PM »
From what I can see from a quick scan is the more of a total stock portfolio you own the better the long term returns.

lol. I think Tyler's rolling over in his grave (or, you know, whatever the equivalent saying is when someone isn't dead yet) at your massive oversimplification that leaves out many of the different investment options he tries to highlight.  :)
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about me, this Business Insider profile tells the story pretty well.
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Tyler

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Re: Asset Allocation Post Fire
« Reply #15 on: December 04, 2015, 11:08:56 PM »
From what I can see from a quick scan is the more of a total stock portfolio you own the better the long term returns.

lol. I think Tyler's rolling over in his grave (or, you know, whatever the equivalent saying is when someone isn't dead yet) at your massive oversimplification that leaves out many of the different investment options he tries to highlight.  :)

:)

Yeah, it's more complicated than that and IMHO a lot more interesting!  Keep browsing, Exflyboy, and I think you'll be pleasantly surprised by many of the portfolios with lower stock allocations.  Also, pay particular attention to some of the metrics other than long-term returns (worst year, longest drawdown, performance over various timeframes, etc.).  Different people have different goals, and it's important to understand the various tradeoffs that come with asset allocation decisions. 

Exflyboy

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Re: Asset Allocation Post Fire
« Reply #16 on: December 05, 2015, 12:42:48 AM »
Hey I studied that with all of about 4 minutes of my attention span.. and got the answer I wanted.

Why study more?..:)

arebelspy

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Re: Asset Allocation Post Fire
« Reply #17 on: December 05, 2015, 01:59:05 AM »

Hey I studied that with all of about 4 minutes of my attention span.. and got the answer I wanted.

Why study more?..:)

Haha, awesome. I love it. :D
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
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Threshkin

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Re: Asset Allocation Post Fire
« Reply #18 on: December 07, 2015, 03:18:26 PM »
Hey I studied that with all of about 4 minutes of my attention span.. and got the answer I wanted.

Why study more?..:)

Spend two more minutes or so and read this post:
http://portfoliocharts.com/2015/11/17/how-safe-withdrawal-rates-work/

It shows why 100% stocks is not the optimal allocation.

Exflyboy

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Re: Asset Allocation Post Fire
« Reply #19 on: December 08, 2015, 01:42:35 PM »
Hey I studied that with all of about 4 minutes of my attention span.. and got the answer I wanted.

Why study more?..:)

Spend two more minutes or so and read this post:
http://portfoliocharts.com/2015/11/17/how-safe-withdrawal-rates-work/

It shows why 100% stocks is not the optimal allocation.

you bastard!.. That took me at east 5 minutes..:)

That was a pretty interesting article. The one scenario that wasn't covered was the MMM method of cutting back when the market tanks, i.e it assumes the start WR was constant, plus an addition for inflation each year.

The more "normal" method is when the market tanks one would draw much less from the portfolio (if one is able of course). Plus one would draw from the bond part of the allocation and rebalance on the way down.

So I think there are couple of inherently safer withdrawal methods that perhaps allows for a a bit higher stock allocation.

In my particular case we are covered in a number of ways, i.e pensions, rent (currently) plus our required WR is about 2%, so I'm staying with about an 85% stock portfolio which I think should be good.


dude

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Re: Asset Allocation Post Fire
« Reply #20 on: December 11, 2015, 07:01:24 AM »
Tyler, given the effect of volatility on accumulation and withdrawal that you so elegantly discuss in your Safe Withdrawals discussion), have you looked at Vanguard's Global Minimum Volatility Fund?  Impressive, though probably fortuitous, returns in the short time since its inception, especially relative to its benchmark (and the total stock market for that matter).

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=1194&FundIntExt=INT

There are several discussion threads on the Bogleheads forums about this fund (there's an Investor shares (0.30%) and Admiral shares (0.20%) option).

Anyone out there in this fund (VMVFX or VMNVX)?

Tyler

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Re: Asset Allocation Post Fire
« Reply #21 on: December 11, 2015, 08:37:51 AM »
I don't know enough about VMVFX to provide much insight.  Volatility management is generally a good thing, but their methods for achieving it (active trading with 50% fund turnover) may or may not hold up in the long run.  It's only two years old, so it's hard to make much of a judgment either way. 
« Last Edit: December 11, 2015, 08:41:29 AM by Tyler »

Astro Camper

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Re: Asset Allocation Post Fire
« Reply #22 on: December 11, 2015, 12:58:28 PM »
What ever you do, don't put everything at one time in any investment. Stocks are currently expensive. You could be buying on top. Most of us with 401K bought monthly over the years so we got in on dips and peaks.

If you need only 3%, why not just get fixed guaranteed income assets that give you 3%. Mass Mutual has fund like that. Guarantees 3.3%. If you can't handle the risk with stocks.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Asset Allocation Post Fire
« Reply #23 on: December 12, 2015, 10:35:37 AM »
What ever you do, don't put everything at one time in any investment. Stocks are currently expensive. You could be buying on top. Most of us with 401K bought monthly over the years so we got in on dips and peaks.

If you need only 3%, why not just get fixed guaranteed income assets that give you 3%. Mass Mutual has fund like that. Guarantees 3.3%. If you can't handle the risk with stocks.






Do you have info on that fund it sounds interesting to me as opposed to laddering CD's.

Reader

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Re: Asset Allocation Post Fire
« Reply #24 on: January 02, 2016, 07:21:25 PM »
posting to follow..

NorcalBlue

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Re: Asset Allocation Post Fire
« Reply #25 on: February 06, 2016, 09:39:51 AM »
Thought I would update this post.  I have been doing some buying during this recent correction. 

My allocation is now up to:

57% Stock (Mostly VTI)
7%   BND
2%   VNQ
34% Cash

As I stated earlier, I think the long term AA I'm targeting is 75/20/5.  I've been finding it very difficult to add additional funds to bonds (which has been a mistake, because that's been my best performer of later :).

I can't get myself to go 75% stocks just yet.  This market seems like it has a ways to go on the downside to me.  Of course...market timing...yada yada yada.  However, seeing as I was 70% cash a year ago, I think I'm making some good strides towards controlling my emotions and establishing a much better long term AA.  Now....if the market could stop bitch slapping me....that would be great :).

Tyler

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Re: Asset Allocation Post Fire
« Reply #26 on: February 06, 2016, 11:01:06 AM »
Progress!  You're doing a very good job of setting a goal and working towards it  Thanks for the update.

IMHO, this is exactly the type of situation where dollar cost averaging helps a lot of people.  It's the middle ground between just dumping it all in now, and taking it all upon yourself to try to time the market.  Set a schedule for yourself to invest a certain percentage of that cash once a month, with the goal of reaching your target AA by a certain date.  Make a plan and stick to it, and by the time you're done I can pretty much guarantee you'll feel good about it. 

« Last Edit: February 08, 2016, 08:26:01 AM by Tyler »

Exflyboy

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Re: Asset Allocation Post Fire
« Reply #27 on: March 19, 2016, 09:34:17 PM »
I decided to have a bit more of a closer look to see if my actual allocation matched what I thought it was.

Hmm this was interesting. If I include pension values (Most of which I can start drawing this year or preferably 5 years from now).

I have 27/12/3.5/57 Pension/bonds/cash/stock.. Stocks are 90% VTSAX and 10% individual dividend stock on a portfolio of just under $2m

If I exclude pensions I get 17/4.8/78 bonds/cash/stock. Portfolio just under $1.6m

The cash/bond part of the portfolio are good for either 9 years or 16 years.. depending if the houses fall down in an Earthquake  during that time... I get rent from our houses.

House paid off and represents maybe another $400k... prior to the Earthquake..:)

Seem like a good future plan for somebody just FIRED.. cough?..:)

« Last Edit: March 20, 2016, 10:16:01 AM by Exflyboy »

retiringearly

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Re: Asset Allocation Post Fire
« Reply #28 on: March 19, 2016, 09:41:06 PM »
In for later

kaposzta

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Re: Asset Allocation Post Fire
« Reply #29 on: March 22, 2016, 04:37:37 AM »
If you'd like to be super-conservative, you could throw your cash into BND (made 4.43% annually since inception (2007)).

retiringearly

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Re: Asset Allocation Post Fire
« Reply #30 on: March 22, 2016, 01:02:28 PM »
If you'd like to be super-conservative, you could throw your cash into BND (made 4.43% annually since inception (2007)).
The downside to that is IF the Fed raises interest rates the value of the bonds in BND will drop. 

freeat57

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Re: Asset Allocation Post Fire
« Reply #31 on: March 22, 2016, 04:40:45 PM »
I have read a lot of great advice on this site from a guy called Nords.  He has a web site and I actually found that before I found MMM.  It is about military retirement, but he has a lot of great financial advice for anyone.  The guy has though a lot about this subject.  I read an article somewhere on his site that was his reply to someone asking a question similar to yours.  I'll try to find that again, but perhaps he'll chime in on this.  If I remember correctly, he advised something like this:  Most market downturns are less than 3 years long.  So to sleep well at night, if you are the nervous sort, set up a three year rolling buffer.  At the beginning of the year, have one year's worth of living expenses in cash.  Then have two year's worth of living expenses in something safe like laddered CDs or money market funds.  Have the rest in equities and bonds as you wish.  If, at the end of the first year, the market is up, replenish your cash accordingly.  If it is down, ride it out using your CD money. 

Nords, feel free to shoot me down if I have misrepresented you!

BookWorm22

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Re: Asset Allocation Post Fire
« Reply #32 on: March 22, 2016, 08:15:49 PM »
Interesting topic.  Posting to follow.

Nords

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Re: Asset Allocation Post Fire
« Reply #33 on: March 26, 2016, 12:50:40 AM »
I have read a lot of great advice on this site from a guy called Nords.  He has a web site and I actually found that before I found MMM.  It is about military retirement, but he has a lot of great financial advice for anyone.  The guy has though a lot about this subject.  I read an article somewhere on his site that was his reply to someone asking a question similar to yours.  I'll try to find that again, but perhaps he'll chime in on this.  If I remember correctly, he advised something like this:  Most market downturns are less than 3 years long.  So to sleep well at night, if you are the nervous sort, set up a three year rolling buffer.  At the beginning of the year, have one year's worth of living expenses in cash.  Then have two year's worth of living expenses in something safe like laddered CDs or money market funds.  Have the rest in equities and bonds as you wish.  If, at the end of the first year, the market is up, replenish your cash accordingly.  If it is down, ride it out using your CD money. 

Nords, feel free to shoot me down if I have misrepresented you!
Two years of expenses in cash!  One year in a money market and the second year in three-year CDs is about right.

Here are the gory details:
http://the-military-guide.com/2014/02/20/how-should-i-invest-during-retirement/

I should point out that this two-year cash buffer helps ride out volatility risk and sequence-of-returns risk during the first 5-10 years of retiring under the 4% SWR.  After that 5-10 years you can probably draw down the cash to a smaller level or leave it at two years for sleep-at-night comfort.

NorcalBlue

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Re: Asset Allocation Post Fire
« Reply #34 on: March 26, 2016, 09:21:04 AM »
Looking for some opinions on what people here would use as WR given my situation and age.  My details are outlined above, but here's a quick summary:

-43y.o., single, renter
-FIRE'd last year after being laid off
-$1.3m investable dollars
-Required WR of about 2%
-Currently AA of 58/10/3/29 (equity, bonds, reit, cash).  Targeting 75/20/5 AA

For 2016, I took out $36k to live on (2.8%).  Although I look to be on pace to spend $26k or so.

I'd like to expand my WR as much as possible in order expand my standard of living, while still protecting the nest egg.  Not sure when or if I'll see the workforce again and even if I do, the big/easy money days are probably over.  Have a small pension and SS at 65 totaling around $2k per month.  Also will probably inherit 300-500k by the time I'm 65.

In my mind, a 3% WR has been my target.  That being said, I have a lot of flexibility to scale back if things tank which begs the question:  What would your WR be given my situation??
« Last Edit: March 26, 2016, 09:29:45 AM by esummers »

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Re: Asset Allocation Post Fire
« Reply #35 on: April 13, 2016, 03:22:37 PM »
Is this applicable to the weath-building phase of FIRE, or just the post-FIRE drawdown phase? Obviously jlcollinsnh comes to mind as a proponent of the 100% stocks portfolio during the wealth-building phase. Gocurrycracker seems to be headed to 100% equities post-FIRE as well.


Spend two more minutes or so and read this post:
http://portfoliocharts.com/2015/11/17/how-safe-withdrawal-rates-work/

It shows why 100% stocks is not the optimal allocation.

steveo

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Re: Asset Allocation Post Fire
« Reply #36 on: April 13, 2016, 04:01:52 PM »
What would your WR be given my situation??

Does spending impact your happiness ? At what level of spending do you feel comfortable ? Honestly I think that this is a question that you need to answer for yourself. I'd be less concerned about the WR rather than your happiness.

Tyler

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Re: Asset Allocation Post Fire
« Reply #37 on: April 13, 2016, 04:43:46 PM »
Is this applicable to the weath-building phase of FIRE, or just the post-FIRE drawdown phase? Obviously jlcollinsnh comes to mind as a proponent of the 100% stocks portfolio during the wealth-building phase. Gocurrycracker seems to be headed to 100% equities post-FIRE as well.


Spend two more minutes or so and read this post:
http://portfoliocharts.com/2015/11/17/how-safe-withdrawal-rates-work/

It shows why 100% stocks is not the optimal allocation.

Yes, it's applicable.  There are many different roads to FIRE, but some are more predictable than others.  Try this -- it's partially based on the same calculations. 

AZryan

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Re: Asset Allocation Post Fire
« Reply #38 on: April 13, 2016, 04:46:58 PM »
Supersudo,

I think it matters a lot more for the draw-down than the build up, but the main factors for 100% stocks is that you need to be 100% sure you can handle BIG drops and not get scared and cash out. The other factor on draw-down is being able to pull back on your spending in the early years (1st decade) during real crash-type drops to get the huge benefits of 100% stocks later on. VERY tough for lots of people, and they don't want/can't do it.

If you want the most $ from day one and want to count on that, plus modest raises year after year, 100% stocks is probably not for you.

I'm 100% stocks, right on the borderline of FIRE, and don't expect to follow a generic 4% rule 'cuz it doesn't mix well with 100% stocks.
If the market drops a lot, I'll cut back on spending and draw from a line of credit for all or part of a few years. That's like having 'virtual' bonds that magically appear right at the exact time you happen to need 'em. Down the road (year 10+), you should be so far ahead you won't have to care when there's another huge drop 'cuz it'll just drop you to the spending level of those on a 'safer' path.

The short version is 100% stock will probably make you look stupid in the first decade, but kick most people's asses from there on -as long as you didn't actually do something stupid during an early crash.

It's probably good to have more overhead in investments if you're 100% stocks, too. This means getting more like ~33X spending (~3%-ish rule). But that, on average, doesn't really take any longer to reach compared to say a nice old school 60/40 stock/bond blend that reaches ~25X spending (4% rule) at about the same time on build-up.