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General Discussion => Post-FIRE => Topic started by: Mr. Green on April 19, 2016, 11:35:37 AM

Title: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: Mr. Green on April 19, 2016, 11:35:37 AM
I am struggling with my decision to quit my job in June and attempt a thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail vs. continuing to work until March 2017 and quitting.

Next Spring my wife and I are moving to another state and building our own house. I'm retiring when I quit my job but my wife's work situation is part of my dilemma. In FIRE, our expenses are 25k. That's not including travel or "extras," just the cost to live life with basic child related expenses built in (we're starting a family once we move as well). It would be possible for us to pull that down close to 20k if we really had to but the goal was to not have to watch every penny like a hawk so I use 25k for our base spending. Ideally I'd like to have a stash that would support a 30k spend so that there's some extra built in for emergencies or travel but I'm okay with having to "find" our annual play money.

At this moment, we have 720k in investments and about 85k equity in our house. Call it 800k for round figures. If I quit in June we'll add 35k to that total. If I work until March of next year we'll add 160k (including the 35k through June) to that total. We also own a property that is worth holding long term for development but if we had to we could fire sale it for 60k guaranteed (likely a bit more but that's why I say 60k guaranteed).

The house we are building is going to cost about 50k in building materials (we already own the land free and clear). We plan to do all the work ourselves. So if I look at my hiking scenario where I quit in June, we end up with 835k (assuming no drop in the market) and we'll then spend 50k of that building our house. On the surface it would seem like we're good. A 25k annual spend in FIRE requires a 625k stash. However, there are variables that make me nervous. There's always the possibility that we'll want to hire out some of the work on the house. Until we move into the new house we have the carrying costs of owning our current house. I'm also nervous about the prospect of a recession in the near future. Statistically we're (the US) due, and an immediate drop right after FIRE would throw us into the highest risk category for our money not going the distance in retirement. In the event that this happened my wife would likely be the person who goes back to work. Her company is willing to work with her remotely, it pays well, and her skills are current. When we move, I will be cutting the cord with my industry. It doesn't exist where we're going so me picking up a decent job is more complicated.

If I were to work the extra nine months the cash we would bank would all but ensure our stash is enough, even with a big market drop immediately after FIRE. It would also make me more comfortable with both of us deciding to build a house while having no incomes, as opposed to her continuing to work while I build the house so we have an income that covers the expenses of our current house. If we wanted to hire out the roofing or siding I wouldn't be stressed about it since there's a little buffer in our stash for a one time outlay like that. That buffer also provides me with a little capital if I want to pursue a hobby profession post-FIRE. However, I must sacrifice a dream to keep working those nine months. There's always the possibility of completing the hike a few years from now but the current opportunity lined up very well with other changes we are making (moving, retiring, etc.) I've been planning this hike for over a year (it takes a lot of planning) with the anticipation that the timing would be right and I would be able to make the attempt. I say attempt because only 25% of people who start, finish. Injuries and other reasons cause the majority to have to stop early. I have no illusions about what it is I'm undertaking so I'm not worried about the mental game but injuries are unpredictable.

Worth noting is that I don't really have any desire to continue working my job for another nine months. I could certainly do it. I don't get ill thinking about work on Sunday night or anything like that, but I'm pretty much burnt out on my career. Really the argument is selfish in nature. It's between my dream of wanting to quit and do this hike vs. the family dream of being pretty darn sure that we can both quit and never have to go back to work. Yes, it is possible that I could quit in June and we would be retired for good but I fear that it's just as possible that one of us would be forced back to work in the near future, given the length of the bull market we've had. Nine months is a pretty short period to add 125k to our stash and make it a pretty sure thing that we're safe. My wife wants me to do the hike, but lately I keep thinking about her having to go back to work after having a kid because of market conditions outside of our control. I could suck it up and basically eliminate that possibility in 9 months (there are always extremes but I'm not planning life around those). But I also keep thinking about the "only live once" thing and regrets.

I'm not entirely sure there's a question in there but other perspectives on this forum have definitely shown me different angles on topics that I sometimes miss on my own. If you feel compelled to leave feedback, beat me up, ask a question, etc. I'd love to read it.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: RoseRelish on April 19, 2016, 01:23:29 PM
I can completely relate to your story. We have 21 years of "fully-baked" expenses saved up, which is a 4.75% withdrawal rate. We have more than 25x our "base" spending saved.

We'd hit 25x and a sub-4.0% WR on the "fully-baked" spending if I work just another 10 months...but I'm burned out. Further making me want to quit now is having a 1 year old kid. It's so much fun spending time with a growing/developing child. My wife and I see the next few years as a unique opportunity to spend every day of our kids' pre-school days together. In that sense, working even just 10 more months is an opportunity lost.

My recommendation to you (and myself) is to take the plunge sooner rather than later. You can always find ways to make money. Even if you work for far less income, you already have a sizeable 'stash built and will not regret taking advantage of the experience facing you in the near-term.

Best of luck and congrats on making it (nearly) to the finish line for mandatory work.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: BFGirl on April 19, 2016, 01:41:07 PM
You are young enough that I'm sure you could earn extra money in the future if need be.  If you think this is a once in a lifetime opportunity (it will be harder to do after kids and while building a house) and your wife supports you, then I think you should do it. 
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: Financial.Velociraptor on April 19, 2016, 05:45:50 PM
I'd take the plunge.  Your 5k  in budgetary wiggle room is 125k worth of stash or downturn in equity.  You are golden.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: Pandemic on April 19, 2016, 08:41:59 PM
Another vote for taking the plunge here.  An extra 125k isn't going to eliminate the risk of going above 4% WR. 

And if your wife enjoys the work, DO IT.  No downside.

Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: 2Cent on April 20, 2016, 01:59:24 AM
I can completely relate to your story. We have 21 years of "fully-baked" expenses saved up, which is a 4.75% withdrawal rate. We have more than 25x our "base" spending saved.

We'd hit 25x and a sub-4.0% WR on the "fully-baked" spending if I work just another 10 months...but I'm burned out. Further making me want to quit now is having a 1 year old kid. It's so much fun spending time with a growing/developing child. My wife and I see the next few years as a unique opportunity to spend every day of our kids' pre-school days together. In that sense, working even just 10 more months is an opportunity lost.

My recommendation to you (and myself) is to take the plunge sooner rather than later. You can always find ways to make money. Even if you work for far less income, you already have a sizeable 'stash built and will not regret taking advantage of the experience facing you in the near-term.

Best of luck and congrats on making it (nearly) to the finish line for mandatory work.
Why not take unpaid leave or reduce your hours. There are lots of options in between working full time and retirement.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: Cycling Stache on April 20, 2016, 04:00:10 AM
Mr. Green, I believe I can relate to this dilemma, and I struggle with it.

The issue for me (and I think what you're getting at) is giving up a job that pays well and is manageable, but is almost certainly impossible to replicate (or go back to) if I leave.

The hangup is that this seems like the easiest way I can make money, and if I "had" to work later at a much lower rate or something that seemed much less tolerable, I would be pissed at myself.

But when I have more rational thoughts, I realize that at my age (40) and with reasonable intelligence, I have the ability to do a job and make money sometime in the next 20 years if needed.  It doesn't matter if this is easy money if I most likely won't need it, and have the ability to make money later on.

Your issue comes to a head because of the hike.  And the rational, outsider view says of course you should do it.  Almost certainly things will work out financially with your current stash, and if not, you have the ability to make money sometime in the next 20-30 years considering what you've made so far.  Maybe not in the same way as before, and maybe not in a way that you can foresee, but almost certainly there's something profitable that you'll decide to do in the future, a la MMM.

But that's just the rational view.  In a similar position, I haven't been able to embrace it.  At least not yet.

One final note: I always smile when I see 13.1 or 26.2 magnets on cars for having run a half or full marathon.  I think about where they went to college, what their job is, how long they've spent working or worrying about work, and the thing that makes them proud--the thing that choose to put on the car over any of that other stuff--is the accomplishment of completing a run.

Through hiking the Appalachian Trail would be awesome.  Dollars to donuts says it's likely to be one of the most meaningful experiences in your life, and when you look back, it's going to be what you remember rather than the additional days at work.  I say do it.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: Primm on April 20, 2016, 04:23:15 AM
Flip a coin.

I'm not actually being facetious. Flip a coin. Heads you leave earlier, tails you stay longer.

Flip it onto one hand and cover it with the other. At that moment your brain will tell you whether you want it to come up heads or tails.

Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: FrugalFan on April 20, 2016, 06:16:12 AM
I would stay for the 9 months. I know you said you don't really want to work an extra 9 months, but the main hangup seems to be the hike. I know it takes a lot of planning, but when you are FIRE, you will have all the time in the world! If this is truly a dream of yours, I know you can make it happen.

The reason I think you should stay is that not only is it a lot of money for little time working, but it's also money that might be really important to your FIRE success, especially if getting back into a good paying job would be difficult. It would lead to a 16% increase in the size of your stash. I looked at your spending breakdown on your blog, and I think it would be cutting it pretty close to the 30k, especially if you add kids to the mix and healthcare to the mix. And building a new house can lead to some unexpected expenses. And there are always unanticipated expenses, even if they aren't the ones that happened to you this year, it will be something else. I'm normally one of the go go go ones, but it this case I'm leaning the other way.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: Mr. Green on April 20, 2016, 10:00:16 AM
I would stay for the 9 months. I know you said you don't really want to work an extra 9 months, but the main hangup seems to be the hike. I know it takes a lot of planning, but when you are FIRE, you will have all the time in the world! If this is truly a dream of yours, I know you can make it happen.

The reason I think you should stay is that not only is it a lot of money for little time working, but it's also money that might be really important to your FIRE success, especially if getting back into a good paying job would be difficult. It would lead to a 16% increase in the size of your stash. I looked at your spending breakdown on your blog, and I think it would be cutting it pretty close to the 30k, especially if you add kids to the mix and healthcare to the mix. And building a new house can lead to some unexpected expenses. And there are always unanticipated expenses, even if they aren't the ones that happened to you this year, it will be something else. I'm normally one of the go go go ones, but it this case I'm leaning the other way.
You're correct. If I wasn't hiking I would absolutely work the 9 months. Unexpected expenses during the build is also something I've kept in the back of my mind. If I choose to work, it's not like I'm giving up the hike forever. If I choose to hike, I question if being so close to my target stash amount, and the possibility of cost creep (for those unknowns) during the build will make me a Nervous Nellie while we're doing it. I know that would take some of the joy out of the process for me. With the extra cash I think I would be much more relaxed. My biggest fear is the one two punch of cost overruns and a well timed recession. It wouldn't kill our financial position on paper but I think mentally I would feel very defeated.

I do expect a modest reduction in spending when we FIRE. Already our average monthly spending in 2016 is lower than 2015, but I've been slacking on the FIRE blog because I've been focused on the thru-hike blog.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: forummm on April 20, 2016, 10:25:22 AM
Since you are worried about a tanking market at the time you might need to spend a lot on housing construction, why not set aside that dollar amount in short term bonds or a high yield savings account? If you need to spend that money, it will be safe. If you don't end up needing to spend it, you can put it back in the market. It's not market timing, it's a temporary adjustment to your asset allocation based on a specific planned expense (and the decision to make that expenditure is independent of market movement). Your risk tolerance on those funds goes way down until you're sure you don't need them and then it goes back up.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: FrugalFan on April 20, 2016, 10:31:17 AM
I would stay for the 9 months. I know you said you don't really want to work an extra 9 months, but the main hangup seems to be the hike. I know it takes a lot of planning, but when you are FIRE, you will have all the time in the world! If this is truly a dream of yours, I know you can make it happen.

The reason I think you should stay is that not only is it a lot of money for little time working, but it's also money that might be really important to your FIRE success, especially if getting back into a good paying job would be difficult. It would lead to a 16% increase in the size of your stash. I looked at your spending breakdown on your blog, and I think it would be cutting it pretty close to the 30k, especially if you add kids to the mix and healthcare to the mix. And building a new house can lead to some unexpected expenses. And there are always unanticipated expenses, even if they aren't the ones that happened to you this year, it will be something else. I'm normally one of the go go go ones, but it this case I'm leaning the other way.
You're correct. If I wasn't hiking I would absolutely work the 9 months. Unexpected expenses during the build is also something I've kept in the back of my mind. If I choose to work, it's not like I'm giving up the hike forever. If I choose to hike, I question if being so close to my target stash amount, and the possibility of cost creep (for those unknowns) during the build will make me a Nervous Nellie while we're doing it. I know that would take some of the joy out of the process for me. With the extra cash I think I would be much more relaxed. My biggest fear is the one two punch of cost overruns and a well timed recession. It wouldn't kill our financial position on paper but I think mentally I would feel very defeated.

I do expect a modest reduction in spending when we FIRE. Already our average monthly spending in 2016 is lower than 2015, but I've been slacking on the FIRE blog because I've been focused on the thru-hike blog.

I would feel that way as well. FIRE is a big thing to do, and I wouldn't be as happy or excited if I was too nervous. I think it your situation what makes me nervous is that there are so many unknowns in your near future. If you had been tracking your expense for 3 years, were staying in the same house, already had kids, I would say go for it. But in this situation a bit of extra padding seems to make sense. I didn't realize you had another blog on the hike. I know this must make your decision even harder. But I think it's important to look at it from a more objective perspective of trying to ignore the hike for now. What makes the most sense financially? Good luck with the decision!
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: Mr. Green on April 20, 2016, 10:47:23 AM
Since you are worried about a tanking market at the time you might need to spend a lot on housing construction, why not set aside that dollar amount in short term bonds or a high yield savings account? If you need to spend that money, it will be safe. If you don't end up needing to spend it, you can put it back in the market. It's not market timing, it's a temporary adjustment to your asset allocation based on a specific planned expense (and the decision to make that expenditure is independent of market movement). Your risk tolerance on those funds goes way down until you're sure you don't need them and then it goes back up.
When I said we had 720k in investments I was being a bit too generic. We have about 30k in cash and 690k in brokerage/IRAs/401ks. Of the 35k we'll add to our stash by June, everything that isn't 401k contributions will add to that cash position for exactly the reason you state. I won't quite have 50k in cash but it'll be close enough. Though, now is a pretty good time to move 10k from stocks into cash since we're close to all time highs again.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: kaizen soze on April 20, 2016, 10:53:31 AM
Lots of ways to re-frame this question to (possibly) make it more tractable. 

Consider other options to make sure you aren't overlooking an even better alternative (maybe ask yourself what you would do if neither of your two options were possible).

Apply coin-flip test (as described above). 

Apply 10/10/10 test.  Imagine you have decided to take the trip.  Imagine how will you feel in 10 minutes, 10 months, 10 years. 

Remember that we tend to discount future benefits when weighing them with short-term pleasures.

What would you advise a close friend to do in your situation?

In the end, if you are still having trouble deciding, it may be that the options -- as different as they are -- are really pretty equal in terms of overall quality to you.  In that case, assuming you've already gathered information and spent a lot of time thinking about this, just decide and be done with it.  Set a time limit for deciding.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: forummm on April 20, 2016, 10:58:52 AM
Since you are worried about a tanking market at the time you might need to spend a lot on housing construction, why not set aside that dollar amount in short term bonds or a high yield savings account? If you need to spend that money, it will be safe. If you don't end up needing to spend it, you can put it back in the market. It's not market timing, it's a temporary adjustment to your asset allocation based on a specific planned expense (and the decision to make that expenditure is independent of market movement). Your risk tolerance on those funds goes way down until you're sure you don't need them and then it goes back up.
When I said we had 720k in investments I was being a bit too generic. We have about 30k in cash and 690k in brokerage/IRAs/401ks. Of the 35k we'll add to our stash by June, everything that isn't 401k contributions will add to that cash position for exactly the reason you state. I won't quite have 50k in cash but it'll be close enough. Though, now is a pretty good time to move 10k from stocks into cash since we're close to all time highs again.

We're usually close to all time highs. Something like half the time we're within 5% of the all time high. It usually goes up from there. Hitting an all time high is not a reason to move funds. Just stick with your asset allocation, with adjustments for specific short-term purchases.

I only mentioned the market tanking because you mentioned it several times. I assumed it was concern about being able to cover your housing related expense without selling stocks that just went down. If you are worried about being able to cover your general living expenses with your stash, then you should do some combination of 1) adjust your AA to something you can stick with during a downturn, 2) do some historical modeling to get yourself more comfortable with the fact that there will be downturns but you can survive them if your WR is safe enough, or 3) work that extra time to lower the WR rate.

But congrats on being super close to FIRE, regardless of whether that's this year or next.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: Stash Man on April 20, 2016, 11:45:17 AM
Just throwing more options on the table:

1) Why does it have to be June or next March?  Is it possible to find a happy medium like October?
2) Why not take a month off to do the hike, then come back to work until you're fully ready?
3) Is working part-time an option?

My suggestion is to reframe your decision as something other than an either-or situation.  There should be other options.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: Mr. Green on April 20, 2016, 12:11:28 PM
Just throwing more options on the table:

1) Why does it have to be June or next March?  Is it possible to find a happy medium like October?
2) Why not take a month off to do the hike, then come back to work until you're fully ready?
3) Is working part-time an option?

My suggestion is to reframe your decision as something other than an either-or situation.  There should be other options.
Unfortunately, it really is an either-or thing in my specific situation. A thru-hike of the AT takes 4-6 months depending on your pace. The start time depends on what direction you hike. 90% of people start in March/April and hike north, but a northbound hike is too overcrowded for the experience I want to have. I want to hike south, which merits a June/July start because the peak of the mountain in Maine that is the northern terminus of the AT doesn't become passable until the beginning of June. It's a 2,190 mile journey. Starting toward the Fall would mean unpredictable winter weather in the Smokies. At 4,000+ feet anything is possible once you hit late-October. The snow pack could become so deep that the trail is practically impassible. It can still be done but it becomes a whole different beast at that point and a 6 month hike can turn into 8-9 months as your pace slows down dramatically over snow.

Spring of 2017 is when we are moving to another state to begin building our house. Once we move it will be impossible for me to continue working in my industry, which is a bit unique. There's no such thing as working remotely and my industry doesn't do any business withing a 2 hour drive of where we're going. I'm okay with that. I want to leave the industry.

Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: Mr. Green on April 20, 2016, 12:12:46 PM
Lots of ways to re-frame this question to (possibly) make it more tractable. 

Consider other options to make sure you aren't overlooking an even better alternative (maybe ask yourself what you would do if neither of your two options were possible).

Apply coin-flip test (as described above). 

Apply 10/10/10 test.  Imagine you have decided to take the trip.  Imagine how will you feel in 10 minutes, 10 months, 10 years. 

Remember that we tend to discount future benefits when weighing them with short-term pleasures.

What would you advise a close friend to do in your situation?

In the end, if you are still having trouble deciding, it may be that the options -- as different as they are -- are really pretty equal in terms of overall quality to you.  In that case, assuming you've already gathered information and spent a lot of time thinking about this, just decide and be done with it.  Set a time limit for deciding.
I really like the way you have reframed the question/some of the suggestions you have made. I think I will print this and think on it this weekend while I'm out on my first preparation hike.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: maizefolk on April 20, 2016, 12:21:30 PM
Flip a coin.

I'm not actually being facetious. Flip a coin. Heads you leave earlier, tails you stay longer.

Flip it onto one hand and cover it with the other. At that moment your brain will tell you whether you want it to come up heads or tails.

I have used the method above for surprisingly major life decisions and can vouch for its efficacy.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: Primm on April 20, 2016, 06:55:27 PM
Flip a coin.

I'm not actually being facetious. Flip a coin. Heads you leave earlier, tails you stay longer.

Flip it onto one hand and cover it with the other. At that moment your brain will tell you whether you want it to come up heads or tails.

I have used the method above for surprisingly major life decisions and can vouch for its efficacy.

As have I. One of my worst habits is the refusal to take action due to analysis paralysis. I overthink things to the point of not being able to decide, which is in itself a decision. Several times I've done this and the relief and clarity gained from doing it are incredible.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: Pandemic on April 20, 2016, 08:20:55 PM
Like you, I'm a youngish engineer that will soon FIRE for a travel opportunity before kids enter the picture and with no intention to return to the industry.  The difference being I'm slightly younger with a slightly higher withdrawal rate and I'm not hesitating to shed the golden handcuffs.

In your blog post linked below, it sounds like you had decisively advanced FIRE to June as holding out was "no longer tolerable".  What's changed since then?  Unless things have actually improved on the work-front, sounds to me like nothing but a case of OMY quitter jitters.
https://investedlife.wordpress.com/2016/02/02/accelerating-my-departure/

Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: Bateaux on April 20, 2016, 11:02:58 PM
It's tough.  I'm 47, a fellow backpacker and AT through hike hopefull for 2018.   I would wait however.  Let the election pass.  Let the stock market react to that outcome.  Then decide if quitting is right.   Your stash is substantial but why struggle and take risk for less than a year of work.  I hiked on the AT for 5 days in Feburary.  I was in Georgia and I put in 60 miles.  Standing atop Blood Mountain I had a tough moment.  I had cell service and the thought entered my mind to just keep going.  Call my wife, call my employer and just keep going to Maine.  I felt and literally was on top of the world.  Coming down Blood Mountain I convinced myself to wait.  The stock market had made some losses (I was down 100k) and that helped me decide to complete my 60 mile loop and go back to work for two more years.  We will likely want more to spend and spend more now than you do.  It is a personal choice to trade life for dollars.  We want to travel the world and have periods of luxury in our retirement.  I'm well at home hanging in my hammock on the trail.  My wife likes to dayhike but sleep in a bed.  We both like cruise ships and jet air travel.  I want new gear for my 2018 hike.  Our kids that are 21 and 22 are still being helped by us as well.  Health care.  Health care is the biggest expense for us going forward.  A major reason I'm waiting out the election.  Our spending for luxury even though higher than yours would fall well within 4% of our net worth.  Health care is what can bankrupt us.  We have a 22 year old son who is a cancer survivor.  We can cover him with health care till 26 under my employers policy.  That is how my 2018 hike and FIRE may well become a 2020 hike and FIRE.  Our NW is around 1.6M maybe more and no debt.  You think it is hard to work another day?  Stare at that bank account and 2016 AT Hiking Guide at the same time.  Then reality hits and you go back to 2008 and your child is having poison pumped into his veins to save his life.  Without insurance it would have been certain bankrupcy.  Hopefully you never face a health crisis.  Hopefully if you must a system is in place to keep you from financial ruin.  My advice, wait out the election.  We are in a time of extreme change.  Keep the job and save more for just a little while.  The trail will still be there. 
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: Mr. Green on April 21, 2016, 05:16:00 AM
Like you, I'm a youngish engineer that will soon FIRE for a travel opportunity before kids enter the picture and with no intention to return to the industry.  The difference being I'm slightly younger with a slightly higher withdrawal rate and I'm not hesitating to shed the golden handcuffs.

In your blog post linked below, it sounds like you had decisively advanced FIRE to June as holding out was "no longer tolerable".  What's changed since then?  Unless things have actually improved on the work-front, sounds to me like nothing but a case of OMY quitter jitters.
https://investedlife.wordpress.com/2016/02/02/accelerating-my-departure/
Since then I've really started to think about the actual process of building a house. What we want to build is a little more expensive than originally planned and I've come to realize there will be certain aspects that will be incredibly difficult to do by myself. We were going to have my wife continue working at home while I build the house in another state but I know she would really like to not be working and helping build the house. I wasn't really thinking about a recession either, just that we have enough now so I'm quitting. Could I do it anyway? Yes. If a recession came and my wife had to go back to work for a few years, would she? Yes. Would I regret not working for 9 more months so my wife didn't have to do that? That's the question, and I think the answer would be yes but I don't really know. I'm also talking from a place of confusion. Hopefully I can clear my head this weekend while hiking.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: asiljoy on April 21, 2016, 07:50:36 AM
Just throwing more options on the table:

1) Why does it have to be June or next March?  Is it possible to find a happy medium like October?
2) Why not take a month off to do the hike, then come back to work until you're fully ready?
3) Is working part-time an option?

My suggestion is to reframe your decision as something other than an either-or situation.  There should be other options.
Unfortunately, it really is an either-or thing in my specific situation. A thru-hike of the AT takes 4-6 months depending on your pace. The start time depends on what direction you hike. 90% of people start in March/April and hike north, but a northbound hike is too overcrowded for the experience I want to have. I want to hike south, which merits a June/July start because the peak of the mountain in Maine that is the northern terminus of the AT doesn't become passable until the beginning of June. It's a 2,190 mile journey. Starting toward the Fall would mean unpredictable winter weather in the Smokies. At 4,000+ feet anything is possible once you hit late-October. The snow pack could become so deep that the trail is practically impassible. It can still be done but it becomes a whole different beast at that point and a 6 month hike can turn into 8-9 months as your pace slows down dramatically over snow.

Spring of 2017 is when we are moving to another state to begin building our house. Once we move it will be impossible for me to continue working in my industry, which is a bit unique. There's no such thing as working remotely and my industry doesn't do any business withing a 2 hour drive of where we're going. I'm okay with that. I want to leave the industry.
And if you don't hike now, retire in June, then build your house, you're worried that life will get in the way and you won't be able to do it then?

Is there anything near your new place that will provide employment of some kind? Coffee shop? Target? City need someone to plow snow? Would a part-time job provide the piece of mind you guys want?

In your shoes, I'd be too nervous to enjoy myself. Since you don't hate your job and it isn't killing your soul, working until June seems like the shortest way to get rid of that nervousness and maintaining the life style you want long term.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: opnfld on April 21, 2016, 01:18:26 PM
Is there anything near your new place that will provide employment of some kind? Coffee shop? Target? City need someone to plow snow? Would a part-time job provide the piece of mind you guys want?
I thought about this overnight before posting and I have three reservations:

The first is the same question as above:  are there any income opportunities in your new locale that could serve as a Plan C to your wife's remote-work Plan B?  If alternate work is hard to come by in your new locale, is your wife's opportunity to return to work ironclad?   Won't that door close at some point?  Previous posters have been nonchalant in their suggestions that other sources of income will be available, but if you are moving into the middle of nowhere, that may not be the case. 

The second is the possibility that your annual expenditure will increase in the future, whether out of necessity or by preference.  Is there a backup plan that would provide you this flexibility if it becomes desirable?

Third, the uncertainty of costs associated with building would also make me cautious.  I've never built a house (would love to!), but $50K in materials seems optimistic.

Provided you have a backup plan to your backup plan, I would say go for it.  But if not, it would be a tragedy to trade all your hopes and dreams for a hike that will always be there.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: Mr. Green on April 21, 2016, 02:46:42 PM
The first is the same question as above:  are there any income opportunities in your new locale that could serve as a Plan C to your wife's remote-work Plan B?  If alternate work is hard to come by in your new locale, is your wife's opportunity to return to work ironclad?   Won't that door close at some point?  Previous posters have been nonchalant in their suggestions that other sources of income will be available, but if you are moving into the middle of nowhere, that may not be the case. 
We're moving just outside a fairly large sized college city (100,000+ people). There will be plenty of opportunities to take any old job if needed, just none in my specific industry (federal contractor). The pay would likely be low but it's a possibility. The reason why I say my wife would likely be the one to go back to work is that she makes almost 70k now and after a couple of kids, daycare will be expensive. I'd either have to get lucky and land a job in a new place that pays pretty good money or it's a no-brainer for me to be the one to stay home with the kids. The door for my wife to go back to work might close eventually but it would be a long time. Her employer is IN LOVE with her and the software she uses to do most of her job doesn't change that quickly. I'd say she has almost 10 years and even then they might hire her back (they did someone else), possibly at a lower salary due to stale skills but it would be like riding a bike.

The second is the possibility that your annual expenditure will increase in the future, whether out of necessity or by preference.  Is there a backup plan that would provide you this flexibility if it becomes desirable?
This is always a possibility. A special needs child, healthcare changes, etc. Someone would have to go back to work. I have a strong handle on our expenses now, and our lifestyle hasn't changed since we graduated college so lifestyle inflation isn't a worry for me. If anything our expenses have gone down from our mid-20's as we've become smarter financially.

Third, the uncertainty of costs associated with building would also make me cautious.  I've never built a house (would love to!), but $50K in materials seems optimistic.
You'd be surprised how little materials play into the cost of a house. A rough guideline is 25% for the land, 25% for materials, 25% for labor, and 25% profit. It can vary a bit by region, cost of land, type of house, etc. I've made a spreadsheet with every material I can think of, down to the light fixtures, cabinets, wiring, you name it and filled it in with values from Lowe's or Home Depot. While that only gives me a semi-solid picture, it's also a picture at retail price, which I won't pay for many things because we'll be buying bulk quantities. I also bought the land as an LLC so I have the ability to build the house as a "contractor" if it takes a company name for me to see contractor pricing. I used retail so there wouldn't be a surprise at the end. Still there are things I worry about inevitably not wanting to to do myself. Like I'm subbing out the drywall mudding for sure. You couldn't pay me to do that. But I plan to do everything else.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: opnfld on April 21, 2016, 04:20:33 PM
We're moving just outside a fairly large sized college city (100,000+ people). There will be plenty of opportunities to take any old job if needed, just none in my specific industry
Lots of options there.

I've made a spreadsheet with every material I can think of, down to the light fixtures, cabinets, wiring, you name it and filled it in with values from Lowe's or Home Depot.
Nice.

Good luck on your ruminations this weekend, but I say go for it.  Let us know what you decide.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: robartsd on April 21, 2016, 04:49:37 PM
The reason why I say my wife would likely be the one to go back to work is that she makes almost 70k now and after a couple of kids, daycare will be expensive. I'd either have to get lucky and land a job in a new place that pays pretty good money or it's a no-brainer for me to be the one to stay home with the kids. The door for my wife to go back to work might close eventually but it would be a long time. Her employer is IN LOVE with her and the software she uses to do most of her job doesn't change that quickly. I'd say she has almost 10 years and even then they might hire her back (they did someone else), possibly at a lower salary due to stale skills but it would be like riding a bike.
One thing that might be worth considering is the possibility of your wife going part-time while you build the house to mitigate some risks. I imagine the mental and physical workloads of her current employment and house building would be quite complimentary.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: SwordGuy on April 21, 2016, 07:20:44 PM
So, let's see.   

1. Can you take an unpaid leave of absence for 6 months while you take the hike?   This allows you to keep some options open 'just in case' for the first 6 months of what would otherwise be your retirement time.   

2. Your wife will remain working while you do the hike, correct?  And while you are building the new house?   If so, given your low spending levels, you are still covered.

3.  Let's say you've finished the house and have some cost overruns.  (You will.   Some things take two pairs of hands or specialized knowledge or equipment. Plus Murphy will have a vacation home near you.)   The market tanks and you can't get your old job back.   How bad is that, really?   Your wife could remain working for a couple of years until the market recovers.    Let's say that suddenly became impossible.   If all the work you could get the first 2 years in the new location was a 20 hour a week job that netted you $5/hr, you could still cover 1/4 to 1/6 of your projected spending.   That alone would reduce your draw on your investments by 16.67% to 25%!   But golly shucks, you will have built an entire house by yourself!  And hiked the Appalachian trail by yourself!    Tell me you couldn't find some handyman work that would pay better!   Or a local small businessman who wouldn't recognize your ability to "get things done"!   

I think you would be fine unless you just went crazy on the home building and lost complete and total control of the budget.

Personally, I like to have generous safety margins.   So my income target is $60,000 instead of $25,000 to $30,000.   But if you are sure you can make it on $25,000 for a goodly number of years, you are most likely financially ready.

Plus, you'll need to meet people in your new area and a low stress, low wage customer service job isn't a bad way to do that. :)  You might even want to do that even if the market is doing great.   Heck, I could bicycle about 10 blocks in retirement and get a part time job at Hooters or a local strip joint, either of which would add some perkiness to my day.   :)
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: forummm on April 22, 2016, 08:55:03 AM
Like you, I'm a youngish engineer that will soon FIRE for a travel opportunity before kids enter the picture and with no intention to return to the industry.  The difference being I'm slightly younger with a slightly higher withdrawal rate and I'm not hesitating to shed the golden handcuffs.

In your blog post linked below, it sounds like you had decisively advanced FIRE to June as holding out was "no longer tolerable".  What's changed since then?  Unless things have actually improved on the work-front, sounds to me like nothing but a case of OMY quitter jitters.
https://investedlife.wordpress.com/2016/02/02/accelerating-my-departure/
Since then I've really started to think about the actual process of building a house. What we want to build is a little more expensive than originally planned and I've come to realize there will be certain aspects that will be incredibly difficult to do by myself. We were going to have my wife continue working at home while I build the house in another state but I know she would really like to not be working and helping build the house. I wasn't really thinking about a recession either, just that we have enough now so I'm quitting. Could I do it anyway? Yes. If a recession came and my wife had to go back to work for a few years, would she? Yes. Would I regret not working for 9 more months so my wife didn't have to do that? That's the question, and I think the answer would be yes but I don't really know. I'm also talking from a place of confusion. Hopefully I can clear my head this weekend while hiking.

A good point. Having done some construction myself, I would advise you to expect it to cost more than you think it will cost. Doing a lot yourself can save you some money (and cost you much more time than you might think). But you can always run into things you didn't expect (like something new needs to happen to meet code you didn't know about, etc).
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: Bikeguy on April 22, 2016, 10:55:01 AM
I'm also nervous about the prospect of a recession in the near future.

4% return on stash is assuming worst case retire at peak and instant market implosion.  The range is 4 to 7%.  So, the 4% return assumes there will be a recession immediately after retirement.  That is the beauty of the 4% rate.  Now, if you need 5 or 6 percent, you need your crystal ball to be working.

And 4% assumes you never work another day in your life and you don't collect social security.

If you are uncomfortable retiring, don't.  But the recession that has already been factored in.

From the following article: http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/05/29/how-much-do-i-need-for-retirement/

"...the 4% value is actually somewhat of a worst-case scenario in the 65 year period covered in the study. In many years, retirees could have spent 5% or more of their savings each year, and still ended up with a growing surplus."

And if you find you like house building (which I'm guessing you may, as you are choosing to do it), you build a house every two years, only if you feel like it, and pocket 100% of the gain, as it's been your primary residence for 2 years.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: Evgenia on April 22, 2016, 11:23:10 AM
Other folks have well covered the rational and financial aspects, so I have no need to repeat them.

I get (perhaps incorrectly) the impression that hiking the AT seems the most malleable, fungible plan, the item most easily sacrificed. Building the house, by comparison, seems/feels like more of a "must" than the AT. That may (or may not) be worth digging into a bit. Is your spouse not coming/hesitant about you going it alone (though the AT has check points where folks can meet you)? I don't mean to project any of these on you. They're just examples, and often there's a lot going on in regard to these kinds of life dreams -- or not.

I take the opposite tack on things like your AT goal. My thoughts are definitely (and strongly) colored by the fact that I've lost too many friends before their time. Several were in their 30s and died in the past two years, from totally unforeseen, uncontrollable, freak accident events and the like.

That said: We really, really do not know what time we've got. We don't know how long we'll have the health or physical ability we currently do, the health that will enable us to do things like hike the AT. A dear friend of mine, in her early forties, came down with ALS and was dead in less than a year -- and severely disabled months before that. Any number of things could (or could not) happen if you wait too long: a family member's health goes down the tubes and you have to care for them; etc. These experiences definitely pushed us into the FIRE that we were well prepared and had plenty for, but had been dragging our feet on.

My wise grandfather always reminded me that you'll never be younger than you are today, and for something like the AT (a dear friend of mine thru-hiked it while taking a year off between jobs), that's an asset. This is not to fear monger, just to add perspective about what really matters most.

No matter what you choose, it sounds like it will all be great. :) Congratulations on reaching FIRE!
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: Mr. Green on April 27, 2016, 08:32:55 AM
I think I have resolved my dilemma by revisiting the hard data. I don't run cfiresim calculations constantly because I did it, knew I was solid, and then put that out of my mind. Looking at all of that stuff again helped shore up my mental state. It amazing how just the lack of reinforcement allows doubt to creep in. I also revisited the MadFientist's post about safe withdraw rates and the strong corollary between the sequence of returns during the first 10 years of retirement and a portfolio's odds of success. I ended up making an excel spreadsheet with all starting years back to 1871, and the 10-, 20-, and 30-year annualized return on it because I was curious about what the actual numbers looked like. Then I used the cfiresim data to shade the bad years where a portfolio failed, allowing me to see what kind of sustained poor returns it took for things to go wrong. It was shocking just how bad the returns had to be for a portfolio to run out of money before 30 years. I thought it was a neat perspective on the data so I made a post about it on my FIRE blog. I feel much better now having done all that.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: FrugalFan on April 27, 2016, 10:14:38 AM
Neat blog post! I'm glad doing this exercise was reassuring to you. And you do have more flexibility because of your age. I'm in a different boat so tend to be more cautious.

Have you extended the cfiresim calculations to longer than 30 years? Many of those portfolios that do get low tend to fail with a few extra years.

It's great that you could potentially anticipate problems when 10-year returns start getting low and seek extra income, but it's surprising how fast that can happen sometimes.

"I’ve also highlighted a couple years in green immediately surrounding the red and orange years to illustrate just how quickly things can change. For instance, the portfolio I used in cfiresim, starting in 1973, only had $62,000 left after 30 years. That same portfolio starting in 1975 is worth just over $4 million three decades later."

The issue with that of course is that people planning to retire in 1975 probably could not have done so as their portfolio would have decreased by almost 50% in the previous 2 years. And retiring in 1973 would have been brutal. Two years in and your 4% SWR would turn into a >8% SWR. I guess this argues for a good cash buffer.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: hoping2retire35 on April 27, 2016, 11:17:38 AM
sounds like you made up your mind today (or recently) but why is this June so important, who is going with you? You will make a lot of friends with a few days on the trail if you are just worried about hiking with someone.
The house budget could get bigger, a project like that is known to double in cost.

keep us informed of what your decision is.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: Mr. Green on April 27, 2016, 11:49:45 AM
Neat blog post! I'm glad doing this exercise was reassuring to you. And you do have more flexibility because of your age. I'm in a different boat so tend to be more cautious.

Have you extended the cfiresim calculations to longer than 30 years? Many of those portfolios that do get low tend to fail with a few extra years.

It's great that you could potentially anticipate problems when 10-year returns start getting low and seek extra income, but it's surprising how fast that can happen sometimes.

"I’ve also highlighted a couple years in green immediately surrounding the red and orange years to illustrate just how quickly things can change. For instance, the portfolio I used in cfiresim, starting in 1973, only had $62,000 left after 30 years. That same portfolio starting in 1975 is worth just over $4 million three decades later."

The issue with that of course is that people planning to retire in 1975 probably could not have done so as their portfolio would have decreased by almost 50% in the previous 2 years. And retiring in 1973 would have been brutal. Two years in and your 4% SWR would turn into a >8% SWR. I guess this argues for a good cash buffer.
I hate to go longer than 30 years because it shortens the number of iterations cfiresim will give you. If I extend the period to 40 years then nothing after 1975 is included since those 40 year periods aren't finished yet. I shaded a bunch of years orange where the portfolio was substantially reduced for the reason you describe, maybe another 10 years would wipe it out. Though, at the end of 30 years I'm knocking on the door of SS and while I might not get everything they promise me today, there will certainly be a substantial supplement. So my stash likely doesn't have to go as far. It's still neat to see the range of actual 10-, 20-, and 30-year period returns that result in less than ideal portfolio balances. I suppose I could still run 40-year projections for the earlier starting years and see if any of the borderline scenarios do fail, though you can fairly easily infer that by seeing if there were any big drops in the market during those next 10 years.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: bacchi on April 27, 2016, 12:13:08 PM
Nice analysis. Some of those first decades had very strong returns (late 40s through the early 50s, for example).
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: Mr. Green on April 27, 2016, 12:26:22 PM
Nice analysis. Some of those first decades had very strong returns (late 40s through the early 50s, for example).
I think what surprised me the most was just how poor the returns could be and you still ended up with more money than you started. Technically, it's only common sense if you think about it in that an annualized return above 4% should leave you with more than when you started. That's a generality and the sequence of returns does cause some variation but I imagine that's why it's incredibly safe! If you hit one of those golden periods where the returns are near 10% for the first 20 years you're going to have the kind of money left when you die that you could have a couple buildings named after you, thanks to your charitable donations.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: Rollin on April 27, 2016, 01:09:10 PM
Neat blog post! I'm glad doing this exercise was reassuring to you. And you do have more flexibility because of your age. I'm in a different boat so tend to be more cautious.

Have you extended the cfiresim calculations to longer than 30 years? Many of those portfolios that do get low tend to fail with a few extra years.

It's great that you could potentially anticipate problems when 10-year returns start getting low and seek extra income, but it's surprising how fast that can happen sometimes.

"I’ve also highlighted a couple years in green immediately surrounding the red and orange years to illustrate just how quickly things can change. For instance, the portfolio I used in cfiresim, starting in 1973, only had $62,000 left after 30 years. That same portfolio starting in 1975 is worth just over $4 million three decades later."

The issue with that of course is that people planning to retire in 1975 probably could not have done so as their portfolio would have decreased by almost 50% in the previous 2 years. And retiring in 1973 would have been brutal. Two years in and your 4% SWR would turn into a >8% SWR. I guess this argues for a good cash buffer.
I hate to go longer than 30 years because it shortens the number of iterations cfiresim will give you. If I extend the period to 40 years then nothing after 1975 is included since those 40 year periods aren't finished yet. I shaded a bunch of years orange where the portfolio was substantially reduced for the reason you describe, maybe another 10 years would wipe it out. Though, at the end of 30 years I'm knocking on the door of SS and while I might not get everything they promise me today, there will certainly be a substantial supplement. So my stash likely doesn't have to go as far. It's still neat to see the range of actual 10-, 20-, and 30-year period returns that result in less than ideal portfolio balances. I suppose I could still run 40-year projections for the earlier starting years and see if any of the borderline scenarios do fail, though you can fairly easily infer that by seeing if there were any big drops in the market during those next 10 years.

Crap - you could go ten years and things start to fall apart (unlikely), but then you'll have LIVED 10 years of the life that you dreamed of. 10 YEARS!! (or 20 or insert whatever).  I'd go for taking the leap (that's what I'm doing). Without going into too much detail, taking a leap like this can be a grand move for you.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: Eurotexan on April 27, 2016, 03:23:08 PM
When I read your initial post it sounded like deep down you had already decided to wait until 2017 but you wanted validation from the forum.

I think you know the right answer, 10 months in the grand scheme of things is not much time -  what were you doing 10 months ago? Seems much more recent than that, I bet.

Peace of mind is a wonderful thing. I would wait.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: Mr. Green on April 27, 2016, 03:42:36 PM
When I read your initial post it sounded like deep down you had already decided to wait until 2017 but you wanted validation from the forum.

I think you know the right answer, 10 months in the grand scheme of things is not much time -  what were you doing 10 months ago? Seems much more recent than that, I bet.

Peace of mind is a wonderful thing. I would wait.
Actually it's kinda the opposite. I really don't want to wait, but a small part of me wondered (and still does) if I'm being foolish long term. Only time can answer that. From a "time" perspective, I believe my boredom at work causes time to feel extended for me. By the end of February this year, Christmas felt so long ago that I struggled to recall any particular memory about it. If you'd have woken me up from a dead sleep and asked me how long ago it was I probably would have said months ago. I've had events happen and within two weeks I barely remember them. The memories are still there but a thick fog covers them, like more time has passed than actually has. I don't know of anyone else that has this happen and I can only assume it is related to boredom. I imagine this is what prison would feel like, with respect to the passage of time.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: herbgeek on April 27, 2016, 04:41:34 PM
You have a number of unknowns:

- you don't have kids yet.  You don't know how expensive they will be, or if there will be any special needs to deal with. so your current budget could be insufficient in the future.
- you are moving to a different area with a potentially different cost of living and your budget could be insufficient.
- you are building a house yourself, there could easily be overruns, delays and the like and your budget could be insufficient.

If you have enough extra in your budget to account for possible unknowns, then go now.  But if it was worry wart me, I would wait until I had a better handle on at least one of these unknowns.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: hoping2retire35 on April 28, 2016, 06:25:13 AM
just pull the trigger.

honestly, you are going to have a paid for house in what I am guess is a LCOL area and $25000  to just sit around on. if times get tough cut out the international travel and new cars. if I had what you have saved up I would retire, go to europe (or where ever) twice a year and buy a new pickup truck every five years.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: BFGirl on April 28, 2016, 07:21:50 AM
Given the totality of your projected assets less your estimates for the house, you still have a $200,000 cushion over what you estimate you need for FIRE.  Given the experience that you will get building your house, you will have  marketable skills as a handyman that you can use to earn more money if necessary later.  I would go on your hike before you have other responsibilities weighing you down.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: GnomeSherpa on April 28, 2016, 10:48:01 AM
I'm new to the Mustachian site, but had to post a reply as a former AT thru hiker.  I hiked back in 2004 southbound, which was my transition between college and my work career.  I must say that my vote is to definitely start your hike this year.  Sure the trail will always be there (at least we hope), but life will not always be lined up perfectly.  Of course in FIRE, one could hopefully hike ever year if desired, but with things like building a house and children on the way it may be more complicated.  It sounds to me that you have things lined up really well.  Worse case seems like you may have to use some of those carpentry skills to earn some extra flow here and there.

I will say that the trail changed me more than I ever could have expected.  It definitely put me on "Mustachian" style of living long before I knew it existed.  When you have to carry everything on your back, the person with the least possessions seems to have the easiest time.  I even ended up meeting my wife because of the trail.  Keep in mind that it isn't always a once in a lifetime thing.  For some that get the hiking fever, it can become a never ending desire to hike more trails.  I hit the PCT in 2006, and hopefully pending better expense tracking, I can reach FIRE in three years and get to many more trails in the future.  Maybe you'll be out on the PCT with that future little one sometime.

Best of luck on the trail.  Try to ignore any negative attitudes and hike your own hike.  It's a blast out there.

Oh, and good call going sobo.  Even though there are a lot more sobos now then back in 2004, it is still the best way to go in my opinion!
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: hoping2retire35 on April 28, 2016, 12:16:36 PM
I'm new to the Mustachian site, but had to post a reply as a former AT thru hiker.  I hiked back in 2004 southbound, which was my transition between college and my work career.  I must say that my vote is to definitely start your hike this year.  Sure the trail will always be there (at least we hope), but life will not always be lined up perfectly.  Of course in FIRE, one could hopefully hike ever year if desired, but with things like building a house and children on the way it may be more complicated.  It sounds to me that you have things lined up really well.  Worse case seems like you may have to use some of those carpentry skills to earn some extra flow here and there.

I will say that the trail changed me more than I ever could have expected.  It definitely put me on "Mustachian" style of living long before I knew it existed.  When you have to carry everything on your back, the person with the least possessions seems to have the easiest time. I even ended up meeting my wife because of the trail.  Keep in mind that it isn't always a once in a lifetime thing.  For some that get the hiking fever, it can become a never ending desire to hike more trails.  I hit the PCT in 2006, and hopefully pending better expense tracking, I can reach FIRE in three years and get to many more trails in the future.  Maybe you'll be out on the PCT with that future little one sometime.

Best of luck on the trail.  Try to ignore any negative attitudes and hike your own hike.  It's a blast out there.

Oh, and good call going sobo.  Even though there are a lot more sobos now then back in 2004, it is still the best way to go in my opinion!

Love it.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: Mr. Green on April 28, 2016, 01:08:09 PM
I will say that the trail changed me more than I ever could have expected.  It definitely put me on "Mustachian" style of living long before I knew it existed.  When you have to carry everything on your back, the person with the least possessions seems to have the easiest time.  I even ended up meeting my wife because of the trail.  Keep in mind that it isn't always a once in a lifetime thing.  For some that get the hiking fever, it can become a never ending desire to hike more trails.  I hit the PCT in 2006, and hopefully pending better expense tracking, I can reach FIRE in three years and get to many more trails in the future.  Maybe you'll be out on the PCT with that future little one sometime.
I think the thing I was looking forward to the most was how the hike will impact the rest of my life. I've heard so many people say it was such an incredibly impactful experience that it become a lasting positive force in their lives, either through remembering the journey or the new perspective it gave them. I can't think of anything worth doing more than something that will likely provide me with a never ending source of positivity until the day I die. For someone who has spent the last 11 years working jobs that could be argued if they were worth doing at all, it feels like a very big deal to me.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: robartsd on April 28, 2016, 05:22:19 PM
I think my hedge against overdrawing a portfolio early in retirement would be to take out the lesser of 1% current value or 1% initial value (adjusted for inflation) each quarter. If any quarter is short, that's a cue that supplemental income may be required. This basically would allow me to restart a 4% SWR any quarter. By the time I am too old to work, I would hope that the portfolio has grown enough to never worry about SWR.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: Mr. Green on April 29, 2016, 07:17:17 AM
I think my hedge against overdrawing a portfolio early in retirement would be to take out the lesser of 1% current value or 1% initial value (adjusted for inflation) each quarter. If any quarter is short, that's a cue that supplemental income may be required. This basically would allow me to restart a 4% SWR any quarter. By the time I am too old to work, I would hope that the portfolio has grown enough to never worry about SWR.
That's a really interesting way of looking at it. I like the notion of 1% per quarter though 1% of current value could throw a false positive on the need to work as well. cfiresim had a bunch of successful 30-year runs where there was some dip below initial value at some point.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: robartsd on April 29, 2016, 11:07:29 AM
I think my hedge against overdrawing a portfolio early in retirement would be to take out the lesser of 1% current value or 1% initial value (adjusted for inflation) each quarter. If any quarter is short, that's a cue that supplemental income may be required. This basically would allow me to restart a 4% SWR any quarter. By the time I am too old to work, I would hope that the portfolio has grown enough to never worry about SWR.
That's a really interesting way of looking at it. I like the notion of 1% per quarter though 1% of current value could throw a false positive on the need to work as well. cfiresim had a bunch of successful 30-year runs where there was some dip below initial value at some point.
I agree that individual quarters might be too sensitive to market changes, but I view this as a far more practical hedge against running out of money late in retirement than the 3-3.5% SWR that some people target. A few short quarters early on don't really indicate future failure; but responding to them earlier rather than hoping that the portfolio recovers later fits my need for security better than any alternative I've yet come across. I could see adding a savings account with a few quarters expenses (perhaps a full year) and a withdraw plan allowing the savings account to be replenished following any short quarters using the 1% current value withdraw in quarters that come up long to smooth out much of the volatility.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: Cannot Wait! on May 08, 2016, 09:44:20 PM
Is there any possibility of doing a portion of the hike, say 1 month instead of 4-6?
I would think that would be the best of both worlds, no?
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: Mr. Green on May 09, 2016, 05:20:59 AM
Is there any possibility of doing a portion of the hike, say 1 month instead of 4-6?
I would think that would be the best of both worlds, no?
The goal was really to do the whole thing. Then again I could get out there and find that a month or two is really all I needed. I wouldn't continue hiking for another 3-4 months if I genuinely didn't want to be there. I could swing a one month leave of absence, but not two.

Ironically, since I posted this thread things have really started to fall apart at work. Our boss is running the project into the ground and the rats have started fleeing the ship. On a team of 15, 5 people have already quit and 5 more have their last day in the next 6 weeks (if I include myself). It's looking less and less like I'd even want to stay in this environment with or without the hike. There's one more smart person left holding the roof up. If he goes, the whole thing fails.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: asiljoy on May 09, 2016, 06:19:02 AM
Is there any possibility of doing a portion of the hike, say 1 month instead of 4-6?
I would think that would be the best of both worlds, no?
The goal was really to do the whole thing. Then again I could get out there and find that a month or two is really all I needed. I wouldn't continue hiking for another 3-4 months if I genuinely didn't want to be there. I could swing a one month leave of absence, but not two.

Ironically, since I posted this thread things have really started to fall apart at work. Our boss is running the project into the ground and the rats have started fleeing the ship. On a team of 15, 5 people have already quit and 5 more have their last day in the next 6 weeks (if I include myself). It's looking less and less like I'd even want to stay in this environment with or without the hike. There's one more smart person left holding the roof up. If he goes, the whole thing fails.

If 5 people have already left, I would be shocked if they wouldn't let you take a longer sabbatical just to have a seat warm. Backfilling that many roles is going to be difficult.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: hikeandbike on June 30, 2016, 11:43:48 AM
you should quit....that's what I am doing. I'll be on Springer around the 12th of March, 2017 northbound.

I'm 46 and I've got far less than you in retirement accounts (450K) but I have an income stream from a business that will continue while I hike and most likely for 10+ more years.

Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: Mr. Green on June 30, 2016, 12:20:03 PM
you should quit....that's what I am doing. I'll be on Springer around the 12th of March, 2017 northbound.

I'm 46 and I've got far less than you in retirement accounts (450K) but I have an income stream from a business that will continue while I hike and most likely for 10+ more years.
I did! I leave for Katahdin in less than 48 hours. Woot!
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: Cannot Wait! on June 30, 2016, 12:42:39 PM
Fantastic!
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: hikeandbike on July 01, 2016, 10:55:37 AM
awesome, have fun!!
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: Dicey on July 21, 2016, 10:32:53 AM
Seriously? I just checked your posts for the last month. What the hell? Leaving your fans in the dark is so wrong. C'mon, man, tell us the story before you go. And yay, I'm glad you're making your dreams come true.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: Mr. Green on July 21, 2016, 11:18:06 AM
Seriously? I just checked your posts for the last month. What the hell? Leaving your fans in the dark is so wrong. C'mon, man, tell us the story before you go. And yay, I'm glad you're making your dreams come true.
Well I went. If you want the play-by-play there a link to my AT blog in my signature. I ended up having to stop due to combination of factors. For one, I started in Maine, which is difficult because the terrain is tougher. I was in serious pain, like not sleeping. I was in a place where I didn't have any way of communicating with anyone so when it didn't get better after two days I made the decision to take a bus home, since every night at the hostel was costing me money. I was also struggling with being away from my wife. In the end I decided that I didn't want to do the hike without her. She should be free within 6 months so we could do something like this together next year if I was still jonesing for it.

So I'm home now and I've started working on the process of building our new house, which will be another huge undertaking since I'm building it myself (with limited help).
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: CowboyAndIndian on July 21, 2016, 11:34:51 AM
I ended up having to stop due to combination of factors.

Sorry to hear that Mr. Green.

Rest, recover and build your house. The AT will wait for you.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: Rollin on July 21, 2016, 12:23:51 PM
Great on you Mr. Green! The thoughts and goals set towards an AT thru-hike got you through the last couple of years and sometimes things change when you get there - finally arrive at that point. It is the fact that you decided to change that plan, against many odds, but you made the decision and that is grand. That was probably in many ways harder than hiking the AT, but the point is you have very likely reached a new level with that decision. I say those decisions can be very positive. I could list the reasons why I think this, but those might not be yours. I just wanted to point out the significance of your decision in a positive way.

Congratulations!
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: Mr. Green on July 21, 2016, 01:12:38 PM
Let me tell you, climbing Katahdin was worth it alone. If you live in the Northeast and have an opportunity to do so, I highly recommend it. It's a grueling climb, the hardest 5 miles of the entire Apalachian Trail. On a clear day the views are just amazing. We summitted in 40-45 mph winds and I almost didn't make it past the mile long boulder field that sometimes had you feeling like a slip would send you falling onto the tops of the pines hundreds of feet below you. Easily one of the most rewarding physical experiences of my life. And my wife made the climb with me (since it was the very beginning of the AT for me) so it was that much more special.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: steveo on July 21, 2016, 03:57:11 PM
Awesome.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: hoping2retire35 on July 22, 2016, 07:47:37 AM
You should post what region you are in to see if there are any willing volunteers.

I am building a tractor shed soon that will very difficult by myself but will be offering unlimited food and beer for a couple of friends and a nephew. I could pay them but that gets weird and it is just more fun if it does not seem like work. might throw in some gas money for those that drive a lot.

Now that I am writing this and thinking about it, you may want to consider building a barn first that will have an apartment for both of you until the house is built. Could later be used as a guest apt.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: Mr. Green on July 22, 2016, 11:20:58 AM
Now that I am writing this and thinking about it, you may want to consider building a barn first that will have an apartment for both of you until the house is built. Could later be used as a guest apt.
We're doing something similar. We're building a 24x36 house at the back of the area we cleared to be the first house. The idea is to get it built quickly, move in, and get our current house sold. Then we'll be able to focus on our permanent house at our leisure with no pressure for a completion time frame. When the permanent house is built the 24x36 will likely turn into a workshop or a garage with some finished space.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: hoping2retire35 on July 22, 2016, 12:01:00 PM
Now that I am writing this and thinking about it, you may want to consider building a barn first that will have an apartment for both of you until the house is built. Could later be used as a guest apt.
We're doing something similar. We're building a 24x36 house at the back of the area we cleared to be the first house. The idea is to get it built quickly, move in, and get our current house sold. Then we'll be able to focus on our permanent house at our leisure with no pressure for a completion time frame. When the permanent house is built the 24x36 will likely turn into a workshop or a garage with some finished space.

kids place house. when they start coming you will want some place to take them where it is not too hot, raining, cold where there are not kitchen knives, picture frame glass etc. I have actually thought about having a rolling stock of houses to flip so that there is always some place to take the kids to let them romp.
Title: Re: FIRE Dilemma
Post by: Mr. Green on July 22, 2016, 03:09:32 PM
Now that I am writing this and thinking about it, you may want to consider building a barn first that will have an apartment for both of you until the house is built. Could later be used as a guest apt.
We're doing something similar. We're building a 24x36 house at the back of the area we cleared to be the first house. The idea is to get it built quickly, move in, and get our current house sold. Then we'll be able to focus on our permanent house at our leisure with no pressure for a completion time frame. When the permanent house is built the 24x36 will likely turn into a workshop or a garage with some finished space.
kids place house. when they start coming you will want some place to take them where it is not too hot, raining, cold where there are not kitchen knives, picture frame glass etc. I have actually thought about having a rolling stock of houses to flip so that there is always some place to take the kids to let them romp.
Also a possibility! I really like the versatility this little space will have, depending on what we need in the future. My father is on disability and may need to live "with us" but not necessarily in our house in the near future. This would solve that dilemma by allowing him to be on the property but give him his own space. It could also be rented out for income, or it could be a low rent option for one of our kids getting on their feet as an adult. It's pretty cool all the different ways it could go. And if it works out the way I think it can, I'll spend about $15,000 building it. 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, 864 sq.ft.