This is a brief history of the modern FIRE movement based on my own leaky memory, things I heard over the fence, and some help from Google. Corrections, comments, and additions welcome. For entertainment purposes only. No warranty is expressed or implied.
I have a few updates!
However, Dominguez, Robin, and the Terhorsts all made a key planning error, in that they relied 100% on bonds for income.
They weren’t wrong, just battle-scarred veterans of our environment of 1970s stagflation and 1980s double-digit inflation. Treasuries and CDs were the only things which didn’t suck, although they weren’t working very well either.
The period of 1966-82 is one of the potential failure modes of the 4% SWR, and Business Week published their notorious “Death Of Equities” magazine cover in 1979-- three years ahead of the bottom. Dominguez (a Wall Street trader) reached FI in 1969 and he could see what was coming. He and Robin actually insisted on Treasuries (for their government backing) and Paul Terhorst started with CDs.
Back in 1979, “everybody knew” that the best investments were gold bullion (especially Krugerrands) and raw diamonds.
In 1982 I had a checking account from a bank paying 10% interest.
Peter Lynch, who probably had as many tools available to him as anyone, advocated a 7% WR.
That was the first edition of “One Up On Wall Street.” Later editions are still for sale on Amazon.
Hey, any stockpickers as talented and intense as Peter Lynch could have a sustainable withdrawal rate of 7%-- but that sounds like a full-time job. CFP Michael Kitces and others have observed that a 7% WR is quite possible if you reach FI when the stock market is at all-time lows. Of course it takes incredible guts (or blissful ignorance) to quit working for a paycheck in early 2009.
This changed in 1994 when Bill Bengen discovered the 4% rule and published it an a industry journal. Now, there was good answer to the central question of retirement planning, namely how much do I need? But back then the Internet didn't really exist as we know it today and I don't believe the 4% rule made a lot of penetration into the mainstream.
It was published in a financial journal whose subscription was only bought by big firms and libraries. Nobody else read it unless you were waiting for your turn with the library’s copy of ValueLine.
The Trinity Study made a much bigger impact in 1998, partly because more people had bandwidth. I thought I was pretty hot stuff with my 4800 bps modem but I was saving to upgrade to a 14.4 kbps model.
He also allowed people to download his Excel spreadsheet and data so you could see for yourself and make modifications. And he set up a Retire Early Home Page discussion page at The Motley Fool.
That spreadsheet was what Bill Sholar used to code FIRECalc 1.0. I think he wrote most of it in PHP. The biggest issue was the annual updates from Schiller’s database.
Out of that board (I believe) our own @Nords and a poster named Dory36 (Bill Sholar) emerged, along with a few other notable posters.
Dory36 set up a early retirement discussion board: Early Retirement.org and he also created FireCalc. So for the first time there was an online SWR calculator where you can enter your own inputs and assumptions. About this time, Johnathan Clements at the Wall Street Journal and noted syndicated personal finance author Scott Burns picked up on the 4% rule and introduced the concept of FIRE to a mainstream audience.
Bill was retiring from his corporate job and his fellow employees had decorated his office door with the usual cards and gag gifts. One of them had printed out the homepage of Greaney’s site. Bill had bought a boat, a... Dory36... on which he and his spouse spent several years cruising the Intracoastal Waterway. He started E-R.org in 2002 and used to run it from his cell phone hotspot, usually logging on around 5 PM after he and his spouse had moored for the evening. He usually turned off his phone the next morning, so if we had a problem with trolls or spammers it had to wait for evening on the east coast.
RetireEarlyHomePage (and later Early-Retirement.org) grew out of The Motley Fool bulletin boards because those MF people started charging for forum access. Everyone immediately left for Greaney’s forum and eventually E-R.org.
I never spent much time on TMF but I was one of the early members of Early-Retirement.org. After a couple years it grew so big that we needed moderators, and I was one of the original mod volunteers.
I believe CFIREsim also came out of Early Retirement.org as well, but I'm not sure of that.
Bo_Knows, or
@lauren_knows, created cFIREsim right here on this very forum:
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/oh-hai-i-once-created-a-site-called-cfiresim-saying-hello-again/msg2874684/#msg2874684Unlike Bill, she wrote sustainable and well-documented code.
After that, as far as I know there wasn't a lot of real movement in the FIRE community until MMM arrived. MMM did several notable things. For one, he did the nuts and bolts kind of calculations like intercst and Dory36, but he also introduced a lot of philosophy and lifestyle discussion like YMOYL and the Terhorsts. It really caught on and we all know the rest.
Jacob Lund Fisker was famous in his corner of the Internet for EarlyRetirementExtreme, and (as Pete has said) he handed off to Pete to further promote their sustainable environmentalism. Jacob is still online somewhere (and on Facebook) but last I heard he was working as a quant analyst.
Joe Dominguez died in 1996. I heard but cannot confirm that his bond ladder was starting to fail and he was living a much diminished lifestyle. Vicki Robin lives on an island in Washington State and makes occasional media appearances. Robin switched to index funds years ago.
To Joe’s credit, his Treasuries made it for the rest of his life. He died of cancer in a group home while still living off that ladder’s greatly-diminished income.
Vicki’s on Whidbey Island, as active an environmentalist as ever. When Grant Sabatier and a few other people tracked her down in the 2010s with questions about YMOYL, she was surprised to learn that it had such a cult following on the Internet. A cameo of her 1980s Oprah appearance is on the documentary "Playing With FIRE."
Maybe someone here has attended a Camp Mustache with her-- I think she was there in 2018 or 2019.
The Terhorsts also switched to index funds and apparently are still having a blast. John Greaney is still around, and says "If I knew then what I know now, I would have retired at 30."
Yes.
Somewhere in there we should also mention Billy & Akaisha Kaderli of RetireEarlyLifestyle, who started their ER as expats in 1991 and are still going strong. These days they spend most of their time in Mexico and Latin America. They’re also very familiar with Thailand and the rest of southeast Asia and will probably head back there for a few laps after the pandemic turns endemic.
The Terhorsts were online for years with a Geocities(!) page, but today it only survives on the Internet Archive. His Body Work post is a classic.
https://web.archive.org/web/20091026192612/http://sites.google.com/site/paulvicgroup/Home/paul-page/body-workNords appears to be doing well.
I am, thank you! My spouse started her Navy Reserve pension this month. Our asset allocation of >90% equities has been very volatile but has grown much faster than inflation. We’ve gone from “more than enough” to “ridiculously way more than we’re ever going to need and are now giving it away faster.”
I wrote this in 2017 and updated it a couple months ago:
https://the-military-guide.com/hey-nords-hows-net-worth/This review of the 4% SWR is for everyone, not just military families.
Bill Sholar decided running a message board was a lot like work and sailed off into the sunset.
Shortly after his granddaughter was born, he and his spouse beached themselves. The last I heard he was running a web design firm in Dallas.
Bill sold E-R.org and FIRECalc to a forum aggregator who... to put it politely... did not exactly hit it off with the E-R.org crowd. I wrote The Military Guide from that forum but I moved on from moderating. These days I only check there weekly for keywords, along with here and Bogleheads. My daughter and I wrote Raising Your Money-Savvy Family from this forum and from IRL conversations at CampFI.
Today I spend much more of my online time in Facebook groups and on ESIMoney’s Millionaire Money Mentor forum. I never in my life thought I’d pay for membership in a forum, but it’s one of the few places on the Internet that’s free of trolls, haters, scammers, and spammers.
Somewhere in this unofficial history we should mention how Morningstar sponsored a bunch of forums in the 1990s and 2000s. (Maybe they’re still going.) One of them was Vanguard Diehards, and a notorious troll became a significant problem in that group. Morningstar’s moderators did such a bad job that Taylor, Mel, Alex, and a few others broke off to start Bogleheads.
I’m sensing a theme here on corporate forums gone bad and leading to crowdsourced initiatives. I think the moderators here are doing a good job but it’s never easy.
There’s a couple other unofficial (but very detailed) histories floating around the Web:
https://www.getrichslowly.org/history-of-financial-independence/https://earlyretirementdude.com/the-history-of-fier/