So I found this calculator and it was really fun.
https://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-earlyBecause I will likely have a pension I found it a great tool to enter in the extra income & start age section. (I ignored government pension but that should help too)
My required target stash is not as much as I thought because I will have some pension. Of course the pension will be larger the longer I work and it doesn't start until 55 at the earliest. At the same time, my stash will be larger the longer I work. Duh! WIN WIN except both require me working longer :(
I made my own spread sheet with retirement age, pension income based on retirement age (from my work pension calculator), estimated stash (current stash +interest +yearly contribution), and success% (from this calculator).
There was a a pretty sharp success cliff from 0%, 0%, 0%, 0%, 4%, 44%, 99% 100%, 100% ....
It was kind of sobering, but not surprising, to see my success at 0% today & for the next four years. (Some days don't we all want to quit?) But in just 7 years my success is 100%. That success is largely because my stash will cover the bridge until my pension kicks in. Then my pension will cover my expenses.
Of course if I cut expenses I could maybe bump things up a year or 2. Growing my stash faster would also help.
This will not be that early of a retirement based on MMM standards but still an early retirement based on most others.
Anyway, have fun with this calculator. Your target stash may be closer than you think. ;)