very valid questions, so with conservative I mean that I would happy to get 5% ROI for my investments annually.
I haven't figured out how much to save nor have I figured out the withdrawal rate yet. I'm trying to do it right now, however it's hard as I have no idea where in the world we will retire, but I guess this is something that I can adjust a lot. We can live with 1,000$/month if we have to (move to our off-grid farm house in Thailand).
The 4 months comes from my current contract that ends then, yes I could find more work and yes I do have one contract that allows me to do as much or as little consulting work as I can for 120$/hr, and I guess I can always pick up some stuff if I get bored or I need to, but not for long at the age of 43 I'm already one of the dinosaurs in the IT industry =D
Okay, you're using "conservative" in terms of returns, which is what k thought. But I was using conservative in terms of your withdrawal strategy.
So someone could have an aggressive asset allocation and get major returns, but choose a conservative 1% withdrawal rate. You need to risk asses your withdrawal strategy, decide how conservative you want to be or if you are more tolerant of risk.
Actively drawing down your principal, especially early on is much higher risk than a 4% withdrawal rate. That doesn't make it a bad strategy, it just depends on your risk tolerance.
Your risk tolerance will be determined by how flexible you are willing to be. So for example, if you are very willing to cut your costs or pick up work again as needed, then a higher risk withdrawal strategy could make perfect sense for you.
However, if you were inflexible in your spending, then a more.conawrvative strategy would make more sense.
Likewise, for some people an early conservative approach and then later draw down of principal makes most sense. This is common among people who move somewhere very inexpensive during their younger retirement years, and then move somewhere more expensive for the sake of amenities, services, and healthcare for their later senior years, and dip into their principal to pay for it, because they don't need the money to last decades longer.
It sounds like you need to do A LOT of thinking about the risks you are willing to take on in retirement and what you want your retirement to look like. Once you figure out what risks you are and are not comfortable with, then you will see that there's no conflicting approaches, just different approaches that are appropriate for different people.
Basically, the more you understand your own needs and the strategies to accomplish them, the more the approach you should take becomes obvious.
As for reading Early Retirement Now is the go to resource for understanding withdrawal strategies and relative risk. But also, it helps to play around with FIRE simulators for a few hours trying out different withdrawal scenarios to see how big an impact each decision can make.