As you approached FIRE were you confident in your numbers?

[Fortuna]

I am about 1.5 years away from potential FIRE based on my planning.  As we are now getting that close I have been looking over the numbers (probably a little too obsessively) and I wonder when I hit that magic number will I feel confident enough then to pull the trigger and leave earning an income behind?

Wondering if any of the folks here can share how they felt at the end and if they had hesitation, suddenly felt like they couldn't trust there plan?  Panic or did you wake up and gleefully ride into new world?  Did you feel scared an stay on to pad the plan before you could pull the trigger for sure?

I know there will be some feelings of fear that is normal.  Just interested in hearing some insights.

[Ozstache]

Although I was quite confident that the main part of my stash, a government pension, would easily cover my anticipated FIRE expenses, that didn't stop me worrying that I had estimated my FIRE expenses wrong and that I was going to end up short (amusingly, the opposite has happened!). IMO if you don't at least have a little bit of fear about making such a big transition in life, you are not being serious enough about it. The trick is to channel that fear into developing solid mitigation strategies to deal with the 'what-if' scenarios that your fear uncovers.

[arebelspy]

As you approached FIRE were you confident in your numbers?"

Hah!  NO!

Let's look at the expense side:

• The wife and I were switching from living in one place full time, cheaply (Las Vegas, low COL) to traveling the world full time.  Travel can be done cheap, or it can be expensive. So that part was hard to predict.
• Additionally, we were having our first kid (got pregnant right before FIRE, on purpose, and had the kid about 7 months into FIRE). Planning to have more.  Kids can be cheap, or they can be expensive. So that part was hard to predict.
• So that's all our expenses were: a VERY vague prediction.

Let's look at the income side:

• We aren't doing a typical "4% rule" scenario, but relying on real estate income for our ER funds.  Real estate income can be irregular.  If a multiple vacancies hit at once, if lots of expenses coincide, if the area the rentals are in decline, any number of things could affect the income and make it hard to predict.
• So that's all our income was: a VERY vague prediction.

On top of that all, we were pulling the plug early (in both senses of the word):

• We were FIREing extremely early (both age 29 at time of FIRE, with me about to turn 30), so the income needs to last a long time.
• I had "5 year" plans to FIRE, which I revised semi-regularly.  In June 2012, it was a 5-year plan to pull the trigger in 2017.  In June 2013, I pulled it in a year and made it a plan to FIRE in 2016.  In August 2013 (two months after the previous plan), I realized that was impetuous, and backed it back off to 2017.  In June 2014, I pulled it back in a year to 2016.  So it bounced back and forth between 2016 and 2017.
• We pulled the plug in 2015. A year before my earliest projection, two years before my most common projection. We got impatient, and succumbed to OLY--"One Less Year."

So our expenses were completely unknown.  Our income was up in the air.  We were extremely young, and we were pulling the plug earlier than planned.   Was I confident in my numbers?  * no!

How's it gone so far?  Amazing.

As I posted elsewhere when someone asked how it's gone financially one year in:

Hi!  So, now that you've been doing this for a while (little over a year?) how are things going financially?  Are things working fine with your rentals and investments?  Is everything looking good, or are you having any worries?

Difficult to say.  I think we're doing okay?

Taxes were by far our biggest expense this past year, at about 1/3 our budget.  But it also had a half year working in it (2015).  Going forward they should only be 15-20% of our budget?  Unless we make a lot that year, I guess.

Our savings rate is maybe 50%?  We need a positive savings rate, due to the potential for rental income to decline long-term in real terms, so we need to diversify, as our SWR is lower than our ROI (as I've discussed a bit elsewhere on the forums, and can dig up links if anyone's interested, but basically someone spending just their income, and even reinvesting some, to start with may quickly run out of money if their ROI, even if seeming positive, isn't due to inflation).

The exact savings rate amount is also hard to calculate, so I'm just spitballing, as some of our funds coming in need to be saved as capital reserves for future house repairs, but it's difficult to say how much, except in hindsight.  In rough numbers, we're probably spending ~35% of our rental income, putting aside ~15% for long term capital expenses, and saving ~50% for other investments.

We do expect spending to go up at some point, especially as we have more kids.

That's just rental income though... we also have lots of opportunities to make money--Ali sold a second book this year to Harlequin, and now they want her to do a 3 (or 4?) book set.  It's small money, but it adds up.  We also have some CC tradeline sales that might net us in the 20-40k range this year, which could cover most or all of our spending.  We may also want to teach some more, for fun.

We're not actively working on making money though.  I'm guessing our finances will be fine?  Not too worried about it, nor watching it too closely.  Was recently thinking about no longer tracking our spending.

In short, we're not too worried about money.  If we need more money, there's plenty lying around we can pick up.  We apparently could have FIRE'd much earlier, but I'm glad, in retrospect, I didn't realize that.  I'm very happy with our years teaching.  It does kill me though to see people in jobs they don't like thinking they need to hang on a bit longer, because they're worried about finances, even though they've already won the game, they just don't realize it.  :)

The money side is working out just fine, and, more importantly, FIRE life is wonderful.  The best thing I can imagine.  Traveling the world full time.  Spending all our time with our kid, rather than having to send her out eight hours per day.  Just enjoying every minute.

Don't regret the move in the least.  Even if we have to go earn more money (unlikely, but a possibility we're okay with), pulling the plug when we did was 100% the right move.  Most likely, even if you aren't confident in your numbers, it'll all work out.

:)

[Gunny]

I too have a Government pension that covers living expenses.  I also had over 600k in the stash.  I went from making well over a 100k a year to 41k per year in retirement sans any stash distributions.  I was nervous as heck.  We decided to buy a house that came with a 1k per month mortgage as I did not want to touch stash and still don't.  But you know, we are doing it and doing it pretty nicely.  Our monthly budget was a helpful tool at first aiding us in cutting our lifestyle creep and figuring out where to be frugal and where to be more spendy pants.  This helped us maximize our fun.  We spent two months in South America, visited Easter Island and have lots of other trips planned. Now, we barely look at the budget as our spending and in what categories has become habit. I did take a sub teaching position just to keep busy during the winter and that provides a few hundred a month cushion. 

[Metric Mouse]

I honestly didn't think much about it.  Sometimes it just happens. One can drive themselves crazy worrying about their numbers, but I think a lot of people would be fine with a lot lower numbers than they are shooting for.  My 'wr' is so much higher than most other people's goals, but my 'stache is bigger than ever and growing.  I can't really relate to a feeling of fear before pulling the plug, but I can tell you the feeling of "At this rate, I might never have to work again..." is impossibly sweet.

Ontop of that, I've got a kid on the way, bought a house in an area I wasn't living in (totally not something I planned on when I FIRED) and almost impossible to predict numbers for, anyway. All of this well before my late twenties.  Anything can happen in the future, but delaying the freedom one could have today is completely under one's control.

[MoonLiteNite]

I have a question for people who have already quit their jobs, or getting ready to.

Why quit cold turkey? Why not work less hours at your current work place. Or if that is not possible, quit. But get a job at walmart or some place working just 10 hours a week as a way to test the waters?

Another thing would be just to save 100% of your paycheck for a year, and live off your investments for a year?

[Cottonswab]

Your confidence should be directly related to how well you have planned for FIRE and how well you have modeled the potential outcomes. 

Confidence does not just come from having money.  Create a plan for FIRE.  Model each scenario that you are concerned about.  Only this will give you confidence.

If you have modeled these scenarios and still lack confidence, then you need to improve the model that you are using. 

[dougules]

posting to follow

[jim555]

I was pretty confident.  But I still would check spreadsheets constantly for about a year after FIREing.  I knew the math was right (but somehow maybe not???), to actually see it work out in real life helped me to trust the math.

[mathjak107]

we were pretty confident , but the longer you are planning to be in retirement the more unsure things can be .

just look at those who retired in 1965 or 1966 . inflation was running around 1% . within a few years it was double digits eating them alive .

the reality is in retirement you have to treat things like steering a big ship . you monitor things along the journey and nudge things a bit to get them back on course .

just make sure your plan has provisions for a fair amount of discretionary spending allowed if you wanted to .

if things get rough and your entire budget is a need and not a want there is nothing to cut back on .

[MsRichLife]

All my calculations say that we have a 100% success rate for retirement. In theory we have more than enough; yet I still don't feel confident in our numbers. FIREing in Oct so I guess we'll soon get to test it out.

[mathjak107]

we use a dynamic spending plan so nothing is totally written in stone . we use bob clyatts draw method  from his book WORK LESS LIVE MORE .

so far it is a very easy method to set goal posts each year and has zero failures  since it is dynamic .

i assume you are talking 100% success rate in firecalc ?

that is some pretty rough criteria to get through to get to 100% success rates since you have to survive the worst combinations in history . 90% success rates  drop the 5 or 6 worst scenario's so  achieving 100% is a pretty good  start .  if you have a fidelity account i like their retirement planner better .

it not only uses monte carlo simulations to find possible worse cases but it inflates healthcare costs and long term care costs by 5.50%  stress testing even harder .

the draw back is they test at only 90% but the greater worst cases from monte carlo testing and additional healthcare and long term care increases likely stress test things harder than firecalc's 100% unless you manually start changing  parameters .

if you can try both .

[mathjak107]

i never rule out uncertainty in my planning , i allow for it .

[mizzourah2006]

we were pretty confident , but the longer you are planning to be in retirement the more unsure things can be .

just look at those who retired in 1965 or 1966 . inflation was running around 1% . within a few years it was double digits eating them alive .

the reality is in retirement you have to treat things like steering a big ship . you monitor things along the journey and nudge things a bit to get them back on course .

just make sure your plan has provisions for a fair amount of discretionary spending allowed if you wanted to .

if things get rough and your entire budget is a need and not a want there is nothing to cut back on .

Of course you are pretty confident. You fall more into the retired than the retired early camp. I think most of the people in this forum are retiring before their early 60s, which makes uncertainty a bit more of a concern.

[mathjak107]

we were ready to retire many many years ago . we were ready back in 2007 when we had the home in the pocono's .

but once we decided we did not want to retire in pa.  there was no reason to stop working yet since i liked what i did . but we could have pulled the plug at any point.

[boarder42]

we were ready to retire many many years ago . we were ready back in 2007 when we had the home in the pocono's .

but once we decided we did not want to retire in pa.  there was no reason to stop working yet since i liked what i did . but we could have pulled the plug at any point.

that doesnt allow for a very apples to apples comparison then.  b/c had you retired in 2007 when you were "ready" you could have provided valuable insight to living thru a large crash shortly after you retired.  instead you worked 10 more years practically.  so you SHOULD have more money than anyone can know what to do with which is fine but doesnt really help someone looking to FIRE on a budget at 37 years old when you're 62 and 4-8 years away from free govt money as well.  it just doesnt really add value IMO

i mean shit if i worked til 62 i'd be confident as ever i could FIRE my conservative projections would have me spending over 750k per year at that point... yipeee  ... and my advice would be yeah i was super confident.  we would just cut the 3 yachts out of our budget in a downturn.  maybe give up the private jet.

[mathjak107]

yes , i do agree with you , but so far away no one can ever be sure . just look at those who retired in 1966 or 1965 . inflation was 1% . who would have imagined that double digit inflation and paying 2 to 3x what you were for things was just a few short  years a way .

so no matter how good your numbers look there are things not even on the radar yet that will greatly alter that .

when i did my projections back in 2000 and i looked at my assets and projected out , who would have thought the equity portion would only have seen around 2-3% real return growth over the next 15 years . that certainly wasn't in my cards . the thought that  medicare and supplement for my wife and i would be about 10-12k a year was not even a thought

so i think trying to determine where you stand many decades before is really not going to mean much . it is hard enough to project over just the traditional 30 year period when you are there   .

[boarder42]

there are quite a few things you cna use to try to predict based on past historical data.

my primary indicator will include the inverse of the shiller PE10 which has almost perfectly tracked future SWRs as blogged by Kitces and Madfientist. is it perfect no but its a good metric.  for instance lets look at 2000 and 1966

2000 was a 2.1% SWR

1966 was right around 4%

so is it perfect no... but it stops you from FIREing in 2000 unless you have a crazy amount saved already.  in 1966 you may have still Fired. but could have readily recognized what was going on ... the first 5-10 years of FIRE will paint a pretty good picture of if you're safe.  you still have opportunities to make money and bring in income and possibly cut expenses after you FIRE.  its sometihng i believe you have to be flexible with and most around here i believe understand. money in 1965 would have lasted til the mid 80s to early 90s at 4% depending on if you had a mortgage inflation hedge (which i know didnt really exist then as it does now but it does)  giving you ample time to find a new job etc. when you realized you were over spending your earnings.

[mathjak107]

the best way is use a variable draw method and just navigate as needed . pretty much we all end up that way anyway

[boarder42]

the best way is use a variable draw method and just navigate as needed . pretty much we all end up that way anyway

yeah we all know you saved so long you had many luxuries built in that would allow for a variable with drawal method.  there are many here who plan to retire on a barebones with not much room for fluff budget.  they wont have this luxury.

your generation also lived to work and identified themselves with their jobs and even their company at times.  the millenial generation doesnt do this.  we also dont shoot for retirement ages we're more likely to shoot for retirement savings goals.

[boarder42]

basically my point is you worked so long mathjak and have so much less time remaining compared to a 30's or 40s retirey that basically any method will work for you on withdrawal... its next to impossible to over spend when you've worked that long and will have full social security etc. not to say its wrong but it doesnt really give a 30s retirey any benefit to listen to what "worked for you" b/c it should be caviated with work til your 62 then do what i did. my parents are in the same boat as you are.  they have tons of money never think about how they spend it, and it will never run out.

[tooqk4u22]

As you approached FIRE were you confident in your numbers?

I am still working....ummm, so I guess not. 

that doesnt allow for a very apples to apples comparison then.  b/c had you retired in 2007 when you were "ready" you could have provided valuable insight to living thru a large crash shortly after you retired.  instead you worked 10 more years practically.  so you SHOULD have more money than anyone can know what to do with which is fine but doesnt really help someone looking to FIRE on a budget at 37 years old when you're 62 and 4-8 years away from free govt money as well.  it just doesnt really add value IMO

It may not be apples to apples but there is still experiential information provided by mathjak - IMO more experience even if not fully relevant is better than not having it.  Also, it would be interesting to hear more about what his portfolio/spending was in 2007 and then where it ended up in 2016 - ie was the 10 years of work saved/invested so to your point his portfolio should be enormous (relative to spending) or was it spent (ala lifestyle inflation).

He is right that things change and it is difficult to plan for the unknown and has provided examples, that is relevant IMO to anybody who is retiring whether standard or early. This post of his was somewhat insightful....I mean does anyone's plan here contemplate 2-3% real growth over 15 years - that alone would likely cause failure at some point. 

yes , i do agree with you , but so far away no one can ever be sure . just look at those who retired in 1966 or 1965 . inflation was 1% . who would have imagined that double digit inflation and paying 2 to 3x what you were for things was just a few short  years a way .

so no matter how good your numbers look there are things not even on the radar yet that will greatly alter that .

when i did my projections back in 2000 and i looked at my assets and projected out , who would have thought the equity portion would only have seen around 2-3% real return growth over the next 15 years . that certainly wasn't in my cards . the thought that  medicare and supplement for my wife and i would be about 10-12k a year was not even a thought

so i think trying to determine where you stand many decades before is really not going to mean much . it is hard enough to project over just the traditional 30 year period when you are there   .

[Tyler]

I was extremely confident in my numbers headed into retirement.  I was also dead wrong.

My retirement spending ended up being lower than my projections even after two years of careful tracking, and I learned only after retiring that the 4% withdrawal rate rule isn't so cut and dried across all portfolios.  I was also confident that I wouldn't work again for a very long time, only to find a nice part time arrangement a year later.  New information yielded new numbers. 

What I've learned is that confidence in numbers is helpful in letting go of the previous routine and pulling the trigger, but it's deceptive once you get past that and realize that the assumptions those numbers are based on change all the time.   More important than confidence that your numbers are right today is confidence that you'll figure things out and be just fine even when they're inevitably outdated tomorrow. 

[Dicey]

I was less confident in my numbers that I was in the decision that it was just time to pull the plug. So damn glad not to be working for a paycheck any more. Nearly fours in and, happy, happy life!

[Etihwdivadnai]

posting to follow

+1

[MsRichLife]

I was less confident in my numbers that I was in the decision that it was just time to pull the plug.

I think this is the point I'm at. I'm 100% confident that I'm done with work. I'll make the numbers work!

[mathjak107]

retirees have been making do with their resources forever .

many survive on just social security alone .

somehow we all manage to make it work . many times the lower end is not a lifestyle you would live by choice but you do what you have to .

[boarder42]

I was less confident in my numbers that I was in the decision that it was just time to pull the plug.

I think this is the point I'm at. I'm 100% confident that I'm done with work. I'll make the numbers work!

i feel this way now but have 7.5 years left haha.

[krishnamba]

New article says say good bye to 4% and instead divide age by 20 and use that as percent

So, for example, someone who is 70 could safely spend 3.5% (70 ÷ 20 = 3.5) of their savings, while someone who is 80 could withdraw 4% (80 ÷ 20 = 4) and someone 65 could withdraw 3.25%.

i.e. 30 year old /20 1.5% of nest egg.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/columnist/powell/2016/08/11/new-retiree-withdrawal-rate-formula-4-percent/86877234/

[mathjak107]

i find it  pretty low following that article .

there are factors in the equation that have a positive effect on success rates that are not considered .

as an example for my age it shows 3.20% . the reality is i can do more than 4% . once you figure in the fact that we plan until 90 for me and 95 for my wife you see there is less than a 50% chance one of us will see 90 . that adds quite a bit to the success .

we also do not need inflation adjusting every year , especially as we age  in the older years  if you have a good supplement to medicare .

until the 80's long term care issues tend not to be to bad .  so study's tend to show from 70-80 spending tends to drop quite a bit if you have discretionary income . we tend not to do as much and that tends to pay a lot towards things that have gone up .

once human emotions kick in we tend to spend less when markets are down too so overall i think the formula in that article is to low for quite a few of us . especially those of us already retiring or retired .

4% at age 80 with a 50% chance of  maybe 10 years of life left would be way to little in my opinion ..

i always felt  leaving to much money on the table that could have been enjoyed and wasn't can be a failure in its own way too .

i know with us , if we had 2x what we do , we would find things to do and enjoy that would consume any amount available to us .

we always intended to live better in retirement then we did while working ,saving and raising a family .

retirement is our reward and we want to do and enjoy as much as our budget allows .

[boarder42]

New article says say good bye to 4% and instead divide age by 20 and use that as percent

So, for example, someone who is 70 could safely spend 3.5% (70 ÷ 20 = 3.5) of their savings, while someone who is 80 could withdraw 4% (80 ÷ 20 = 4) and someone 65 could withdraw 3.25%.

i.e. 30 year old /20 1.5% of nest egg.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/columnist/powell/2016/08/11/new-retiree-withdrawal-rate-formula-4-percent/86877234/

oh thats rich ... not even going to read that article.  gotta just be doom and gloom scare tactics.  so when i retire at 37 i'm going to only be able to withdraw 1.85% ... its a bad policy trying to equate it to age. 

[mathjak107]

in this case age is way off base .

 age equates because life expectancy equates to draw rate but i think they are way off in that article .

[Tyler]

New article says say good bye to 4% and instead divide age by 20 and use that as percent

All you really need to know from the article:

What’s so great about this strategy? According to Inglis, it's “an easy-to-determine and remember guideline for those who do not have the time, expertise or inclination to do a lot of analysis.”

Other strategies, by contrast, require too much thinking.

I suspect the group of people likely to achieve early retirement and the group of people who don't like too much thinking probably don't overlap very much. 

[boarder42]

New article says say good bye to 4% and instead divide age by 20 and use that as percent

All you really need to know from the article:

What’s so great about this strategy? According to Inglis, it's “an easy-to-determine and remember guideline for those who do not have the time, expertise or inclination to do a lot of analysis.”

Other strategies, by contrast, require too much thinking.

I suspect the group of people likely to achieve early retirement and the group of people who don't like too much thinking probably don't overlap very much.

haha thats awsome

[arebelspy]

Since that's variable (i.e. recalculated each year based on both your age, and also your stache amount), that'll whip your spending around hard if there's a crash.  And it's basically guaranteed to leave you with a LOT of money.

[Libertea]

I feel confident in my FIRE number because I've over-inflated it considerably and have taken other conservative measures (not factoring in SS, assuming I will not inherit any money, etc.).  The final conservative factor I'm adding in is that I plan to semi-retire instead of full-on retire for the first several years.  It's a lot less scary psychologically that way, and in fact, it's allowing me to retire from my current job, which I am coming to despise, over a year earlier than I had originally planned.  Win-win all around, IMO.

[Metric Mouse]

I feel confident in my FIRE number because I've over-inflated it considerably and have taken other conservative measures (not factoring in SS, assuming I will not inherit any money, etc.).  The final conservative factor I'm adding in is that I plan to semi-retire instead of full-on retire for the first several years.  It's a lot less scary psychologically that way, and in fact, it's allowing me to retire from my current job, which I am coming to despise, over a year earlier than I had originally planned.  Win-win all around, IMO.

Good luck! Pulling the plug can be scary, and having a safety factor is one way to address that.

[Cassie]

We semi-retired so 4 years in we still have income coming in which feels good and small pensions. So maybe try that route to see how it feels with a little earned income flowing.

[deborah]

I've been retired for 7 years. I was very nervous about retiring because "nobody" retires at the age I did, and has a good income for life. I redid the figures many many times, but they kept on saying that I was set.

So I did.

I was so nervous about the figures even after I retired that I eventually found MMM. This, despite having to save some of the income I was getting each year. This last year (we do things June to June here), I spent a lot more than I ever have because I spent 7 of the last 14 months travelling. But, you know, I still haven't spent all that I have saved since I retired. So I am still ahead (by a lot).

I think it is natural for people who have saved all their lives to be very nervous. It is taking a dive into the unknown, and relying on your savings, rather than earning more than you spend. It is very confronting to make the transition. People who were spendy, and then became savers to ER probably have less of a transition.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

I'll list a few factors out there I found useful:

1) If you liked your career but grew tired of your specific job, you can fall back on that career later if needed.  Sure you'd need some time to get back up to speed reading and practicing, but it's one approach for those who didn't leave a job for health reasons.

2) Run several simulators from several websites.  Then add extra expenses to see where it breaks.  That gives added confidence that even with extra spending you'll be okay.

3) Play with stock/bond percentages to see how they interact on retirement.  Having over 1/3rd bonds seems to dampen the problems of stock volatility, and having over 1/3rd stocks seems to ensure the money grows.  But play with it and make a portfolio that helps you retire.

4) Withdraw slightly more during stock booms, and slightly less during corrections.  May only appeal to math people who are willing to have multiple withdrawal rates, but the idea is to use extra cash from good years to avoid selling as much during bad years.  It's not a 0% and 200% approach, more like +/- 15%.  Portfolios survive better the less they sell during bad years, so adding flexibility (for me) adds to my confidence it will work.

[SwordGuy]

I'm a bit less than a year out from declaring FI status.   I'm pretty comfortable because I have lots of fallbacks built in - just to be sure.

My darling wife isn't as confident in the numbers.  Partly that's because of our new mortgage.  She would feel a lot better if that were paid off.  (So would I.)  The rest is because she's been relying on me to do the numbers instead of obsessing over them like I am. :)


.

[NoNonsenseLandlord]

I FIRE'd this year.  I was 100% confident, but really there is no way to be 100%.  Even now, large bills want to derail me after only 2 months...

Make sure you have enough for any cushion.  Be sure to have multiple streams of income.  Have streams that increase every few years, so you get a COLA, or something similar to one.  Here are some of my financial increases.

FIRE date is a base income, 100% rental property (~3x-4X current spending)
Mortgage paid off (Fire +1 year)
Start using dividends (Fire +6 years)
Start using principle  (Fire +7 years)
Pension starts (Fire +9 years)
SO 401K in  (Fire +10 years)
SO pension kicks in (Fire +10 years)
SS kicks in  (Fire +14 years)
SO SS kicks in  (Fire +17 years)

[Spork]

I FIRE'd a little over a year ago. 

I guess I will say I was pretty confident.  I was extremely conservative and, in retrospect, I over saved.  I sort of knew this at the time and it's been really beaten into me over the last year when I look at actual spending post FIRE.

I imagine your confidence in many ways depends on just how "close to the edge" your numbers are.

[thriftyc]

;-)

[mathjak107]

the problem is historically the company's were behind the curve when inflation got to high . markets sucked for quite a while until inflation came down . they sucked so long  business week had their famous death of equity's issue where they declared stocks no longer a viable asset for growth .

[Exflyboy]

I FIRE'd a little over a year ago. 

I guess I will say I was pretty confident.  I was extremely conservative and, in retrospect, I over saved.  I sort of knew this at the time and it's been really beaten into me over the last year when I look at actual spending post FIRE.

I imagine your confidence in many ways depends on just how "close to the edge" your numbers are.

Or how close you "feel" they are..:).

I guess for me at least I look at the 2008 meltdown and that was about a 4 year event (2007 peak until the S&P 500 passed the previous peak).. So if my portfolio fell by 50% for say a decade I would still be just fine.

Yeah I over saved by a mile.. But, that gives me comfort.. Besides I'm here now nothing I can do about it.

Well apart from spending 3 times what we did last year that is..:)

[HenryDavid]

We're still working part time/freelance a bit, but living on the exact amount of income projected for the day we stop.
Not factoring in government programs, as one safety net. (Another is that we have room to reduce travel spending at any point if something unexpected happens.)
So far we are right on the money . . . in both senses of the phrase.

[SwordGuy]

I'm a bit less than a year out from declaring FI status.   I'm pretty comfortable because I have lots of fallbacks built in - just to be sure.

My darling wife isn't as confident in the numbers.  Partly that's because of our new mortgage.  She would feel a lot better if that were paid off.  (So would I.)  The rest is because she's been relying on me to do the numbers instead of obsessing over them like I am. :)

Well, I'm happy to report that my honey is now convinced the numbers will work.  She's going to retire a year earlier than she planned to.  I'm planning to move up my date by a few months too.  We're both planning to be members of the 2017 graduating class!

[dude]

Lots of GREAT posts here!  Not FIRE'ed yet, but just 2 years and 8 months away, and only NOW am I starting to question my numbers -- and that primarily because of how overvalued the market is.  We are living in truly unique times insofar as market valuations, bond prices, interest rates and inflation go -- primarily on account of the Fed holding down rates for so long.  There are a LOT of very well-informed folks out there (Shiller, Grantham, Bernstein and others among them) who see subpar market returns for a long while to come. That has me worried. I should be alright because I have the luxury of a government pension to backstop me, but I'm not interested in a barebones FIRE existence.  I want more breathing room than that. Nevertheless, I'm still mostly convinced I'll be fine, but I'm dealing psychologically with the increasing likelihood that I won't have the $800k I once envisioned I'd have in the stash come FIRE time.  It's looking more likely that the number will be closer to $700k.  That should still be PLENTY enough, but it's a little complicated because the DW and I will have staggered retirements (by 5-7 years) and I've done a lot more of the heavy lifting over the years than she has, so I've got to be able to pick up her slack. I reasonably convinced I'm still on track, but the nagging little voice in the back of my head has gotten a bit louder in the past couple years.  All I can do at this point is keep on keepin' on, and re-evaluate come retirement eligibility time. Worst case scenario, I can still keep working this job until they kick me out at age 57.  Best case, I go as originally planned.  And in the middle, I could just work another year or two. Still hoping very much to stick to the original plan.

[Metric Mouse]

I'm a bit less than a year out from declaring FI status.   I'm pretty comfortable because I have lots of fallbacks built in - just to be sure.

My darling wife isn't as confident in the numbers.  Partly that's because of our new mortgage.  She would feel a lot better if that were paid off.  (So would I.)  The rest is because she's been relying on me to do the numbers instead of obsessing over them like I am. :)

Well, I'm happy to report that my honey is now convinced the numbers will work.  She's going to retire a year earlier than she planned to.  I'm planning to move up my date by a few months too.  We're both planning to be members of the 2017 graduating class!

This is awesome! Congrats Swordguy!