Author Topic: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?  (Read 11925 times)

StarBright

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #50 on: March 14, 2023, 05:45:50 AM »
I haven't checked my social security statement in ages - but this thread made me look and I noticed something new.

I have about 10 really low earning years when I was a teen and in college that now seem to be grouped into 2 years of full time minimum wage income - effectively taking me down from almost 30 years of work to 19 years. I swear this is new.

I remember when I looked several years ago that I had lots of 3-7k years from high school and undergrad. Now I have 1991-2000 and 2000-2005 and then annual wages from 2006 onwards.

I wonder if that is just how they list it or how they count it? And if it is how they count it, will just wash out or will it hurt me because now I'll have more zero years when I cut the cord?

This doesn't hurt you in any way and in fact could actually help you if you ended up having more than 35 years and didn't have to replace some of your earnings.

I'm really hoping to bow out in the next year or so - hence my concern of 20 years of work instead of 29. Really hoping to not work another 15! I started drawing a paycheck before puberty, I'm ready to be done for a bit.
« Last Edit: January 25, 2024, 12:58:23 PM by StarBright »

Zamboni

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #51 on: March 14, 2023, 07:55:05 AM »
I kind of wish they wouldn't send these statements out to people. I understand that SSA is working to be transparent, but there are unintended consequences.

In the case of my parents and some of their friends, what sounded like a lot of money for retirement 20-30 years ago turns out to barely feel like anything now. Unfortunately some people use "but I'll just take my social security" as an excuse to save less . . . or save nothing . . . and then they are surprised when they can't comfortably retire.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #52 on: March 14, 2023, 08:35:47 AM »
I kind of wish they wouldn't send these statements out to people. I understand that SSA is working to be transparent, but there are unintended consequences.

In the case of my parents and some of their friends, what sounded like a lot of money for retirement 20-30 years ago turns out to barely feel like anything now. Unfortunately some people use "but I'll just take my social security" as an excuse to save less . . . or save nothing . . . and then they are surprised when they can't comfortably retire.

Yup.  I have the 'rich parents, poor parents' example.  My parents didn't factor SS in, optimized the payout, and use SS income as fun money;  DW's parents claimed early and palpably wait for the SS check every month...

JupiterGreen

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #53 on: March 14, 2023, 12:23:46 PM »
I kind of wish they wouldn't send these statements out to people. I understand that SSA is working to be transparent, but there are unintended consequences.

In the case of my parents and some of their friends, what sounded like a lot of money for retirement 20-30 years ago turns out to barely feel like anything now. Unfortunately some people use "but I'll just take my social security" as an excuse to save less . . . or save nothing . . . and then they are surprised when they can't comfortably retire.

Yup.  I have the 'rich parents, poor parents' example.  My parents didn't factor SS in, optimized the payout, and use SS income as fun money;  DW's parents claimed early and palpably wait for the SS check every month...

Did the "poor parents" save for retirement at all outside SS, or was it the taking it early that more substantially impacted their retirement?

MaybeBabyMustache

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #54 on: March 14, 2023, 12:26:17 PM »
I kind of wish they wouldn't send these statements out to people. I understand that SSA is working to be transparent, but there are unintended consequences.

In the case of my parents and some of their friends, what sounded like a lot of money for retirement 20-30 years ago turns out to barely feel like anything now. Unfortunately some people use "but I'll just take my social security" as an excuse to save less . . . or save nothing . . . and then they are surprised when they can't comfortably retire.

But, the goal of the statements is to make sure people understand what they will get. Some people might interpret it as "a lot" of money, and some may think it's a drop in the bucket of their overall retirement plan. But, data is a valuable tool for everyone. Unfortunately, not everyone is financially responsible, regardless of how much access to information they have.

brandon1827

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #55 on: March 14, 2023, 12:31:58 PM »
The statement says that SS is only meant to replace approximately 40% of your pre-retirement income. I would hope that there aren't many people just not worrying about retirement at all and thinking SS is going to fully fund whatever plans they have after they're done working.

Zamboni

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #56 on: March 14, 2023, 01:21:39 PM »
^Look at the big brain on brandon reading all the words! Lol

I just look quickly at the numbers that follow $ signs (like most people.)

And many people must neglect to figure in the bite that taxes will take if they have other income while collecting Soc Sec.

Here's another 40%: 2 out of 5 retirees rely on social security for more than half of their income.

1 out of 8 rely on it for >90% of their income.

Although ~90% of people retiring in the next couple of decades will end up financially ahead and collect more money overall if they wait until age 70 to start drawing Soc Sec, only 6% will wait.
Based upon current trends, nearly 70% of people who do not have a disability will start drawing at age 65 or younger, with about half of those starting to collect at the earliest possible moment at 62.

It turns out that most people can't resist having what they perceive as an uncollected check waved in front of their face month after month, year after year.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #57 on: March 14, 2023, 05:55:04 PM »
I kind of wish they wouldn't send these statements out to people. I understand that SSA is working to be transparent, but there are unintended consequences.

In the case of my parents and some of their friends, what sounded like a lot of money for retirement 20-30 years ago turns out to barely feel like anything now. Unfortunately some people use "but I'll just take my social security" as an excuse to save less . . . or save nothing . . . and then they are surprised when they can't comfortably retire.

Yup.  I have the 'rich parents, poor parents' example.  My parents didn't factor SS in, optimized the payout, and use SS income as fun money;  DW's parents claimed early and palpably wait for the SS check every month...

Did the "poor parents" save for retirement at all outside SS, or was it the taking it early that more substantially impacted their retirement?

Not really something I have discussed with the in-laws.  They have a lot tied up in their retirement home and they had a feast or famine income in heavy machine sales, which petered out on a long famine...

SpareChange

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #58 on: November 18, 2023, 09:49:37 PM »
Checked my estimated benefits and SS in the last week or so has updated them for the newest AWI. Just over a 5% increase. I'll take it.

mistymoney

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #59 on: November 25, 2023, 02:11:30 PM »
Checked my estimated benefits and SS in the last week or so has updated them for the newest AWI. Just over a 5% increase. I'll take it.

Thanks for this! I've been checking and checking since october and final thought I was going to have to wait until new statements in 2024... saw this and got all excited last night and went to check and site was down, lol!

forgot, and then my computer was left on this thread.....checked today and update my spreadsheets. With some satisfaction, I might add. :).

the upgrade definitely takes me a bit closer as my calculations were already factoring in the inflationary pressures on my budget - or most of it anyway. Having no pension, the SS is going to be important to me. Putting worries about its coming insolvency aside for the moment....

SpareChange

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #60 on: November 26, 2023, 09:13:02 AM »
Thanks for this! I've been checking and checking since october and final thought I was going to have to wait until new statements in 2024... saw this and got all excited last night and went to check and site was down, lol!

forgot, and then my computer was left on this thread.....checked today and update my spreadsheets. With some satisfaction, I might add. :).

the upgrade definitely takes me a bit closer as my calculations were already factoring in the inflationary pressures on my budget - or most of it anyway. Having no pension, the SS is going to be important to me. Putting worries about its coming insolvency aside for the moment....

No pension here either. And I just turned 49. SS starting to slowly seem more "real". My wages this year are higher than I expected, so Ill be checking back in in Feb to see what kind of bump that'll give me.

Looking at historical tables of AWI and CPI, it seems AWI has consistently beat CPI over the years. Our benefits earning a real return as it were.

flyingaway

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #61 on: November 26, 2023, 10:17:16 AM »
I retired in 2015 at age 55 with just 30 years of full time wages going into my benefits calculation. Because of that I knew my benefits would be average.

Fast forward, I recently found a 2016 statement which put my benefit at 66+10mo at $2269. I had read about the big COLA adjustment for this year so I decided to check on my current benefit level.

To my surprise, I'm now at $3075 !!! That's a 35% increase, WOW! I had no idea of the affect of COLA adjustments.

Anyone else checked their benefits lately?

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mistymoney

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #62 on: November 26, 2023, 05:01:59 PM »
Thanks for this! I've been checking and checking since october and final thought I was going to have to wait until new statements in 2024... saw this and got all excited last night and went to check and site was down, lol!

forgot, and then my computer was left on this thread.....checked today and update my spreadsheets. With some satisfaction, I might add. :).

the upgrade definitely takes me a bit closer as my calculations were already factoring in the inflationary pressures on my budget - or most of it anyway. Having no pension, the SS is going to be important to me. Putting worries about its coming insolvency aside for the moment....

No pension here either. And I just turned 49. SS starting to slowly seem more "real". My wages this year are higher than I expected, so Ill be checking back in in Feb to see what kind of bump that'll give me.

Looking at historical tables of AWI and CPI, it seems AWI has consistently beat CPI over the years. Our benefits earning a real return as it were.

Yeah - back in my 30's didn't seem like social security was going to make a real difference to me, one way or another.....either gone, reduced benefits, or just not a lot of money generally......but now with my improved earnings the past 5 years, and projecting to wait until 70 to take benefits, it is really going to be an important part of my plan.

evanc

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #63 on: January 25, 2024, 12:55:21 PM »
Thanks, @SpareChange !

I've been using https://ssa.tools/calculator.html along with https://opensocialsecurity.com/ for SS modeling.

Thanks for sharing those tools. I had been manually calculating via Excel spreadsheet, but it was nice to see that the (former) tool confirmed my numbers.

SpareChange

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #64 on: February 05, 2024, 04:34:40 PM »
Thanks for this! I've been checking and checking since october and final thought I was going to have to wait until new statements in 2024... saw this and got all excited last night and went to check and site was down, lol!

forgot, and then my computer was left on this thread.....checked today and update my spreadsheets. With some satisfaction, I might add. :).

the upgrade definitely takes me a bit closer as my calculations were already factoring in the inflationary pressures on my budget - or most of it anyway. Having no pension, the SS is going to be important to me. Putting worries about its coming insolvency aside for the moment....

No pension here either. And I just turned 49. SS starting to slowly seem more "real". My wages this year are higher than I expected, so Ill be checking back in in Feb to see what kind of bump that'll give me.

Looking at historical tables of AWI and CPI, it seems AWI has consistently beat CPI over the years. Our benefits earning a real return as it were.

Right on time. My SS account and benefits estimate were updated today for last year's earnings.

Turtle

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #65 on: February 06, 2024, 07:55:45 AM »
I had checked in late January, prior to the update with 2023 income, and then again yesterday.

2023 saw me making more money than I ever had in my life.  The difference in my wait until 70 estimate?  $6 more per month. 

Yippy, Skippy, Hurrah.

Since I still had a couple years of under $1000/yr to knock off my 35 highest, I was kind of expecting it would be more. 

SpareChange

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #66 on: February 06, 2024, 08:04:07 AM »
I had checked in late January, prior to the update with 2023 income, and then again yesterday.

2023 saw me making more money than I ever had in my life.  The difference in my wait until 70 estimate?  $6 more per month. 

Yippy, Skippy, Hurrah.

Since I still had a couple years of under $1000/yr to knock off my 35 highest, I was kind of expecting it would be more.

Darn. Are you past the second bend point?

Turtle

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #67 on: February 06, 2024, 08:46:18 AM »
I had checked in late January, prior to the update with 2023 income, and then again yesterday.

2023 saw me making more money than I ever had in my life.  The difference in my wait until 70 estimate?  $6 more per month. 

Yippy, Skippy, Hurrah.

Since I still had a couple years of under $1000/yr to knock off my 35 highest, I was kind of expecting it would be more.

Darn. Are you past the second bend point?

I guess I must be.  The last time I really looked into all the bend point math was a few years ago and I was still below the second bend, but it wasn't by much.  If I really dug into it, mostly likely I'd find that I'm shortly past it now.

I'll be collecting my late spouse's under the widowed provision between 60-70, which gives mine time to grow enough to be a bump up.  (It wouldn't be if I collected mine at 62, but will be at 70.)

Sandi_k

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #68 on: February 06, 2024, 11:36:58 AM »
My age 70 amount increased by $260 over my spreadsheet value with the addition of 2023 earnings, and yes, I am long past the second bend point.

Note that that is the "full" projected amount, not discounted by 20-25% due to SS funding projections.

Turtle

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #69 on: February 06, 2024, 01:23:11 PM »
My age 70 amount increased by $260 over my spreadsheet value with the addition of 2023 earnings, and yes, I am long past the second bend point.

Note that that is the "full" projected amount, not discounted by 20-25% due to SS funding projections.

Hmmm.  Actually, I wonder if when I checked in January maybe the projections that I downloaded pre 2023 data load had assumed the same income for 2023 as 2022?  That would make more sense for it to be only $6 difference.

GilesMM

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #70 on: February 06, 2024, 01:27:39 PM »
This thread got me thinking more about our SS.  I realized, after reading a Boglehead thread, that my plans to always wait until age 70 to start SS make no sense.  My best option financially is definitely to start at 62 as spouse can start then at half my SS.

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #71 on: February 06, 2024, 06:24:12 PM »
This thread got me thinking more about our SS.  I realized, after reading a Boglehead thread, that my plans to always wait until age 70 to start SS make no sense.  My best option financially is definitely to start at 62 as spouse can start then at half my SS.

Have you checked what opensocialsecurity.com suggests for your situation?  Usually claiming at 62 isn't best, but it depends on the situation.

GilesMM

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #72 on: February 06, 2024, 07:36:37 PM »
This thread got me thinking more about our SS.  I realized, after reading a Boglehead thread, that my plans to always wait until age 70 to start SS make no sense.  My best option financially is definitely to start at 62 as spouse can start then at half my SS.

Have you checked what opensocialsecurity.com suggests for your situation?  Usually claiming at 62 isn't best, but it depends on the situation.

Yes, it strongly confirms the math and recommends age 62.  Age 67 would be 93% of max NPV and age 70 would be 90%.  I also modeled it in Excel with my own discount rate assumptions and found similar.  If I wait until 67 I don't catch up to the age 62 option until I am 85 years old or so and even at age 90 the figures are similar.

tj

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #73 on: February 06, 2024, 09:50:35 PM »
6 or 7 extra years of at or near maximum pay level may also have made a big difference for you.

For myself, if I work much into 2025 it will knock the last of my sub-10K earning years off my 35 year average, bumping it up quite a bit.
Yes, it would have since 5 years going into the calculation are from my college years. But selling my business and retiring was more important and I have some income property.

For the younger folks on this site with plans on FIREing after 20 years, I'd bet a lot of them haven't considered that having 15 years of zero SS earnings will    affect their benefits dramatically. That's  if they even know about the 35 year calculation; I didn't until my accountant told me just before I sold my business.

I encourage everyone to go to ssa.gov and see where you stand.

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For those in high paying fields, it only takes about 17 years of maximum contribution to reach the second bend point. After that, additional years don't have as big of an effect.

And for some in public service, there will be no SS.

That would mean someone would need to work 34 years of a high paying field that pays 1/2 of the annual maximum contribution in order to get to the 2nd bend point. People who retire early in such scenario likely won't ever even make it to the second bend point.

secondcor521

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #74 on: February 06, 2024, 10:51:19 PM »
I must be missing something about the bend points, or maybe others are.

My working career was only 23 calendar years long, and most of those were not anywhere near the SS max.  Yet I'm fairly certain that at one point I confirmed that I was just past the second bend point.  Every year the last few years of my retirement, I was checking my SS earnings record and my SS benefit, and it really was barely going up, which seems to match being past the second bend point.  But I seem to have gotten there faster than the previous posts suggest.

I'm wondering if there's some sort of inflation adjustment or something somewhere that helps one get there faster than one might expect via a static analysis.

:shrug:

Turtle

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #75 on: February 07, 2024, 08:27:26 AM »
I must be missing something about the bend points, or maybe others are.

My working career was only 23 calendar years long, and most of those were not anywhere near the SS max.  Yet I'm fairly certain that at one point I confirmed that I was just past the second bend point.  Every year the last few years of my retirement, I was checking my SS earnings record and my SS benefit, and it really was barely going up, which seems to match being past the second bend point.  But I seem to have gotten there faster than the previous posts suggest.

I'm wondering if there's some sort of inflation adjustment or something somewhere that helps one get there faster than one might expect via a static analysis.

:shrug:

IIRC there is some sort of inflation adjustment to prior years. 

GilesMM

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #76 on: February 07, 2024, 09:29:44 AM »
I must be missing something about the bend points, or maybe others are.

My working career was only 23 calendar years long, and most of those were not anywhere near the SS max.  Yet I'm fairly certain that at one point I confirmed that I was just past the second bend point.  Every year the last few years of my retirement, I was checking my SS earnings record and my SS benefit, and it really was barely going up, which seems to match being past the second bend point.  But I seem to have gotten there faster than the previous posts suggest.

I'm wondering if there's some sort of inflation adjustment or something somewhere that helps one get there faster than one might expect via a static analysis.

:shrug:

The bend points refer to the changes in otherwise linear relationship between monthly income and monthly insurance benefit as shown below:



secondcor521

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #77 on: February 07, 2024, 10:44:08 AM »
The bend points refer to the changes in otherwise linear relationship between monthly income and monthly insurance benefit as shown below:

Yep, I understand that.  And I'm pretty sure I made it past the second bend point, but based on the income numbers and the way people are doing the math, apparently I shouldn't have?  I'm sure SS got it right, and I'm fairly confident I got it right, so I figure the other people must be doing something wrong.  But I'm subject to occasional hubris so I like to look out for that.

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #78 on: February 07, 2024, 01:11:47 PM »
I must be missing something about the bend points, or maybe others are.

My working career was only 23 calendar years long, and most of those were not anywhere near the SS max.  Yet I'm fairly certain that at one point I confirmed that I was just past the second bend point.  Every year the last few years of my retirement, I was checking my SS earnings record and my SS benefit, and it really was barely going up, which seems to match being past the second bend point.  But I seem to have gotten there faster than the previous posts suggest.

I'm wondering if there's some sort of inflation adjustment or something somewhere that helps one get there faster than one might expect via a static analysis.

:shrug:

The bend points refer to the changes in otherwise linear relationship between monthly income and monthly insurance benefit as shown below:




If that chart references earned amount at "full retirement age" then I'm actually not yet past the second bend point though I might be very close to it one side or the other when I FIRE in a couple years.

tj

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #79 on: February 07, 2024, 06:47:54 PM »
I must be missing something about the bend points, or maybe others are.

My working career was only 23 calendar years long, and most of those were not anywhere near the SS max.  Yet I'm fairly certain that at one point I confirmed that I was just past the second bend point.  Every year the last few years of my retirement, I was checking my SS earnings record and my SS benefit, and it really was barely going up, which seems to match being past the second bend point.  But I seem to have gotten there faster than the previous posts suggest.

I'm wondering if there's some sort of inflation adjustment or something somewhere that helps one get there faster than one might expect via a static analysis.

:shrug:


Years worked a long time ago are far more valuable in the calculation, but the bend points have increased over time:

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/bendpoints.html

Are you sure that you were nowhere near the max? In 1993, the max was $57,600 for example:

https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/policybriefs/pb2011-02.html

secondcor521

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #80 on: February 07, 2024, 06:55:32 PM »
I must be missing something about the bend points, or maybe others are.

My working career was only 23 calendar years long, and most of those were not anywhere near the SS max.  Yet I'm fairly certain that at one point I confirmed that I was just past the second bend point.  Every year the last few years of my retirement, I was checking my SS earnings record and my SS benefit, and it really was barely going up, which seems to match being past the second bend point.  But I seem to have gotten there faster than the previous posts suggest.

I'm wondering if there's some sort of inflation adjustment or something somewhere that helps one get there faster than one might expect via a static analysis.

:shrug:


Years worked a long time ago are far more valuable in the calculation, but the bend points have increased over time:

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/bendpoints.html

Are you sure that you were nowhere near the max? In 1993, the max was $57,600 for example:

https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/policybriefs/pb2011-02.html

So the fact that the older years are inflation adjusted probably accounts for what I'm talking about.

In 1993 I graduated from college in May and started a relatively modest paying job in August or so.  I definitely wasn't near the $57,600 cap.  I did get closer in my later career after 17 years of experience plus an MBA.

Thanks for the reply and the explanation.  You're right that mentally I know the cap is $100K plus now and I was only making $XXK back in the early 1990s, but inflation obviously makes a big difference over a quarter century.

tj

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #81 on: February 07, 2024, 07:09:23 PM »
I must be missing something about the bend points, or maybe others are.

My working career was only 23 calendar years long, and most of those were not anywhere near the SS max.  Yet I'm fairly certain that at one point I confirmed that I was just past the second bend point.  Every year the last few years of my retirement, I was checking my SS earnings record and my SS benefit, and it really was barely going up, which seems to match being past the second bend point.  But I seem to have gotten there faster than the previous posts suggest.

I'm wondering if there's some sort of inflation adjustment or something somewhere that helps one get there faster than one might expect via a static analysis.

:shrug:


Years worked a long time ago are far more valuable in the calculation, but the bend points have increased over time:

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/bendpoints.html

Are you sure that you were nowhere near the max? In 1993, the max was $57,600 for example:

https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/policybriefs/pb2011-02.html

So the fact that the older years are inflation adjusted probably accounts for what I'm talking about.

In 1993 I graduated from college in May and started a relatively modest paying job in August or so.  I definitely wasn't near the $57,600 cap.  I did get closer in my later career after 17 years of experience plus an MBA.

Thanks for the reply and the explanation.  You're right that mentally I know the cap is $100K plus now and I was only making $XXK back in the early 1990s, but inflation obviously makes a big difference over a quarter century.

Are you saying that inflation alone could take someone who was nowhere near the second bend point to actually moving past it with only 23ish years of work? This seems hard for me to believe.

I've been working for 15 years (with a couple years off) - my current salary is about 1/2 of the annual max income base for SS tax. I have been closer in the past, but not frequently.

Getting to the first bend point is most important, being past the first bend point myself and well below the second bend point, earning roughly $80k per year only increases my SS by roughly $60 per month.

mistymoney

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #82 on: February 07, 2024, 07:10:07 PM »
My age 70 amount increased by $260 over my spreadsheet value with the addition of 2023 earnings, and yes, I am long past the second bend point.

Note that that is the "full" projected amount, not discounted by 20-25% due to SS funding projections.

Hmmm.  Actually, I wonder if when I checked in January maybe the projections that I downloaded pre 2023 data load had assumed the same income for 2023 as 2022?  That would make more sense for it to be only $6 difference.

I'm past the second bend point, and replacing a very low earning year with 2023 income.

I'm up 37/month at 62, 67 at 70. Maybe check again, make sure the statment lists your 2023 wages on it.

secondcor521

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #83 on: February 07, 2024, 08:06:45 PM »
Are you saying that inflation alone could take someone who was nowhere near the second bend point to actually moving past it with only 23ish years of work? This seems hard for me to believe.

I thought that's what *you* were suggesting.

Anyway, I did go grab my SS earnings history from the SS website and shoved it into ssa.tools/calculator.  It did confirm, at least, that I am, in fact, just a bit past the second bend point based on my earnings record.

Although I started my career in 1993 and retired in 2016, I did work in high school and college (typical summer/part time jobs), so my earnings record goes back to 1985.  I also have a Schedule C side gig, so I have some SS-taxed income from 2021 onward.  All told, it's 39 work years (of which they obviously take only the top 35).

The age 70 benefit amount calculated by ssa.tools is within 32 basis points of the number that the SS website provides, so I think that ssa.tools is doing things correctly.

FWIW, the wage/inflation multipliers at ssa.tools go up to 3.79 for 1985.  They're above 2 starting in 1999 and earlier.

tj

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #84 on: February 07, 2024, 08:44:50 PM »
Are you saying that inflation alone could take someone who was nowhere near the second bend point to actually moving past it with only 23ish years of work? This seems hard for me to believe.

I thought that's what *you* were suggesting.

Anyway, I did go grab my SS earnings history from the SS website and shoved it into ssa.tools/calculator.  It did confirm, at least, that I am, in fact, just a bit past the second bend point based on my earnings record.

Although I started my career in 1993 and retired in 2016, I did work in high school and college (typical summer/part time jobs), so my earnings record goes back to 1985.  I also have a Schedule C side gig, so I have some SS-taxed income from 2021 onward.  All told, it's 39 work years (of which they obviously take only the top 35).

The age 70 benefit amount calculated by ssa.tools is within 32 basis points of the number that the SS website provides, so I think that ssa.tools is doing things correctly.

FWIW, the wage/inflation multipliers at ssa.tools go up to 3.79 for 1985.  They're above 2 starting in 1999 and earlier.

What I was suggesting is that you probably didn't realize that you were likely close to the annual SS max when you were working.

It will be interesting to see what the multipliers are for the 2010s in 2047 when I am first eligible for social security. :D

Are your 2021-2024 years replacing your years of high school and college jobs or are the multipliers so high that those years are still higher than your side gig years?

It seems that I would need to work until age 55-57 to hit the second bend point, but that's based on this year's bend points number. I don't really know how to project what inflation could do to my own numbers that it doesn't also do to the increase in bend point levels.
« Last Edit: February 07, 2024, 08:46:58 PM by tj »

secondcor521

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #85 on: February 07, 2024, 09:19:16 PM »
What I was suggesting is that you probably didn't realize that you were likely close to the annual SS max when you were working.

I wasn't paying that much attention when I was working.  Now, I can look back at my earnings record and compare it to the SS MTA in retrospect.  I think the late 1990s were good for me because my earnings were growing about 10% annually as I was developing my career, and the SS MTA probably wasn't going up as much, so I was gaining ground on a relative basis.

I don't want to disclose my income history, but basically I got a CS degree in 1993 and worked as a pretty well paid engineer and engineering manager for a couple of well known high tech companies.

Are your 2021-2024 years replacing your years of high school and college jobs or are the multipliers so high that those years are still higher than your side gig years?

My side gig years (2021+) look like they will replace a $0 year of 2017 first, then yes, they'll start wiping out the low-income (even inflation adjusted) high school and college years.  But the side gig itself isn't all that lucrative, so my SS benefit probably won't change by anything worth mentioning.

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #86 on: February 08, 2024, 09:01:50 AM »
Where do you find your AIME number on the ssa website?  Or is that something we have to calculate ourselves based on our earnings history?

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #87 on: February 08, 2024, 09:58:23 AM »
Where do you find your AIME number on the ssa website?  Or is that something we have to calculate ourselves based on our earnings history?

You can get you earnings history, then dead over to https://ssa.tools/ for better explanations and what-if tinkering.

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #88 on: February 08, 2024, 10:26:22 AM »
This is probably a dumb question, but should you work to the second bend point?

My spouse works a job that doesn't pay into social security so I've always felt that my social security would be more important than in a dual SS earning household.

But working another decade at my current salary still doesn't get me that close to the second point (according to the SSA Tools site).

On the other hand, my spouse doesn't plan to retire early, and does have a 401a, and as a couple we are already have a 'stache that is more than big enough to coastFI to age 59.5.

In my early 40s, I still find the whole Social Security thing to be opaque and hard to plan around. But I also feel like we should be incorporating it into our plans.


secondcor521

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #89 on: February 08, 2024, 11:29:01 AM »
This is probably a dumb question, but should you work to the second bend point?

I think this is a more specific version of the question:  "When is working more no longer worth it?"

The answer for me was a combination of how much I liked/disliked my job (it was "meh" at the end), how much money I had (more than enough), how old I was (46), what my backup plans were if things went sideways (a lot), and what else I wanted to do (not much, but staying at work wasn't one of them).

I did choose to arrange the timing of my exit so that I could exercise a batch of stock options, so even though I was "meh" about the job and I thought I had enough money, the additional dollars per additional time calculation felt worth it.

Social Security is just another thing where the longer you work, the more resources pile up.  Between the first and second bend point, they pile up at a particular rate.  Depending on your own personal calculus, that rate may be worth it or it may not.

What I would do (and did the last few years I worked) was check the SS website every year and see how much my ultimate SS benefit had gone up for the work I had put in and the income I had earned.  It wasn't much, and it didn't tip the scale to "keep working" for me personally.

Before the second bend point, your benefit does go up about twice as fast as after the second bend point - I think it's 32% to 15% or something like that.  And it's not clear from your post if your spouse would be eligible to collect spousal SS benefits or not.  If so, those two things make it accrue at a higher rate than it did for me.  But at some point (especially if you know you have "enough" dollars already), they could offer you $1000 an hour and you'd turn it down because time becomes more valuable than money.

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #90 on: February 08, 2024, 11:47:04 AM »
Right on time. My SS account and benefits estimate were updated today for last year's earnings.
Today's MPP: We had no 2023 earned income, so our numbers haven't changed, waaaah.

Good point about early years earnings, @secondcor521. Since I FIRE'd early-ish, I still have a couple of really low years of HS and collage part time jobs in my history. For a fleeting moment, I considered OMY or even TMY to knock them off. Because they were my very first earning years, the inflation adjustments were huge. It was absolutely not worth what I'd have to earn in today's (or 2012's, when I FIRE'd)  dollars to replace them.

secondcor521

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #91 on: February 08, 2024, 11:54:46 AM »
Right on time. My SS account and benefits estimate were updated today for last year's earnings.
Today's MPP: We had no 2023 earned income, so our numbers haven't changed, waaaah.

Good point about early years earnings, @secondcor521. Since I FIRE'd early-ish, I still have a couple of really low years of HS and collage part time jobs in my history. For a fleeting moment, I considered OMY or even TMY to knock them off. Because they were my very first earning years, the inflation adjustments were huge. It was absolutely not worth what I'd have to earn in today's (or 2012's, when I FIRE'd)  dollars to replace them.

I'm guessing your portfolio went up in 2023 more than enough to compensate.

After going through the ssa.tools AIME exercise, I am a little bit pleased that, once my 2023 side gig income posts, I will have 35 years of SS earnings.  It doesn't matter a whit in the end, but I feel like a bit less of a slacker.

tj

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #92 on: February 08, 2024, 06:45:25 PM »
Right on time. My SS account and benefits estimate were updated today for last year's earnings.
Today's MPP: We had no 2023 earned income, so our numbers haven't changed, waaaah.

Good point about early years earnings, @secondcor521. Since I FIRE'd early-ish, I still have a couple of really low years of HS and collage part time jobs in my history. For a fleeting moment, I considered OMY or even TMY to knock them off. Because they were my very first earning years, the inflation adjustments were huge. It was absolutely not worth what I'd have to earn in today's (or 2012's, when I FIRE'd)  dollars to replace them.

Your SS numbers should have gone up in 2023 because of inflation - your prior years of earnings are now worth more.

secondcor521

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #93 on: February 08, 2024, 07:01:50 PM »
Right on time. My SS account and benefits estimate were updated today for last year's earnings.
Today's MPP: We had no 2023 earned income, so our numbers haven't changed, waaaah.

Good point about early years earnings, @secondcor521. Since I FIRE'd early-ish, I still have a couple of really low years of HS and collage part time jobs in my history. For a fleeting moment, I considered OMY or even TMY to knock them off. Because they were my very first earning years, the inflation adjustments were huge. It was absolutely not worth what I'd have to earn in today's (or 2012's, when I FIRE'd)  dollars to replace them.

Your SS numbers should have gone up in 2023 because of inflation - your prior years of earnings are now worth more.

While true, the SS only makes the inflation and wage adjustments once a year.  If a person randomly checks SS (like me and maybe Dicey) every few months, they might check twice between the inflation/wage adjustments and conclude that their benefit hasn't gone up.

I *think* my benefits go up about twice a year, once in the spring about March and once in the fall.  But I honestly don't pay that much attention other than that.

tj

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #94 on: February 08, 2024, 07:17:17 PM »
Right on time. My SS account and benefits estimate were updated today for last year's earnings.
Today's MPP: We had no 2023 earned income, so our numbers haven't changed, waaaah.

Good point about early years earnings, @secondcor521. Since I FIRE'd early-ish, I still have a couple of really low years of HS and collage part time jobs in my history. For a fleeting moment, I considered OMY or even TMY to knock them off. Because they were my very first earning years, the inflation adjustments were huge. It was absolutely not worth what I'd have to earn in today's (or 2012's, when I FIRE'd)  dollars to replace them.

Your SS numbers should have gone up in 2023 because of inflation - your prior years of earnings are now worth more.

While true, the SS only makes the inflation and wage adjustments once a year.  If a person randomly checks SS (like me and maybe Dicey) every few months, they might check twice between the inflation/wage adjustments and conclude that their benefit hasn't gone up.

I *think* my benefits go up about twice a year, once in the spring about March and once in the fall.  But I honestly don't pay that much attention other than that.


Ah- I only check annually when the new statement gets uploaded.

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #95 on: March 02, 2024, 03:20:53 PM »

This is where I’m at.  I will have about 21 years at the maximum amount and am past the 2nd bend point.  The marginal gain of working another 7 years (to get to 35) is not really enough to move the needle so why would I.

   There are a couple of things working another 7 years does besides the minor increase in SS you lament. You have 7 additional years of savings and you have 7 additional years of compound interest on your nest egg. With just a little stock market luck, that will more than double your nest egg.
 

I won’t need to work for 7 more years to get to 35,  I’ll have enough.  Why would I work more to become even richer.

Dicey

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #96 on: March 04, 2024, 10:31:31 AM »

This is where I’m at.  I will have about 21 years at the maximum amount and am past the 2nd bend point.  The marginal gain of working another 7 years (to get to 35) is not really enough to move the needle so why would I.

   There are a couple of things working another 7 years does besides the minor increase in SS you lament. You have 7 additional years of savings and you have 7 additional years of compound interest on your nest egg. With just a little stock market luck, that will more than double your nest egg.
 

I won’t need to work for 7 more years to get to 35,  I’ll have enough.  Why would I work more to become even richer.
Ah, it's always nice to be reminded why we're here. Go, @Formerly known as something!

Turtle

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Re: Anyone else shocked by the increase in their Social Security benefits?
« Reply #97 on: March 15, 2024, 01:05:37 PM »
I was reading various sites during a slow workday, and finally decided to check out opensocialsecurity.com

Their recommendation was exactly the same as what I had worked out was the best option.  Go me.  :)


 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!