Author Topic: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?  (Read 2018 times)

J Boogie

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Over the past few years, I've come to develop a certain understanding of what's going across the globe.

I am fascinated by this topic and I regard most members on this board as very knowledgeable and insightful. I'd love to get a variety of takes on this topic. One request though - let's try to avoid excessive Trump talk, especially the more gossip column type of Trump talk. He gets too much of our time and attention already.

So here's a list of phenomena that I think nationalist populism is responding to.


1-Things aren't as good for white men as they used to be.

-The median male wage was higher in 1969 than it is today.

-Over the past 15 years, deaths of despair (substance abuse/suicide) have risen for white men, especially white men with high school or less education. The opposite has been observed for Non-white Hispanic men and black men.

Obviously, there are a number of factors at play here. Job loss, wage stagnation, social isolation, automation, outsourcing, and of course the scapegoats - immigration and the EPA. I would consider the "war on coal" and the millions of immigrants among the smaller factors involved, but they have an outsized role because they make pretty easy political targets.

2-The global elites have mismanaged the economy, or managed it perfectly to benefit the elite class while leaving the middle class out in the dark. Recessions are caused by the elites, but felt by the commoners. Bankers still got bonuses, no one went to jail, and so on.

- Steve Bannon likes to point out that in September 2008 the Fed's balance sheet was 1 trillion, and in 2017 it was 4.5 trillion. How relevant is this? I think most Trump voters probably don't understand the stock market, the Fed, interest rates, etc all that well. Blue collar workers typically get pensions, not 401ks. They don't invest in the stock market. Many probably missed out on the incredible gains of the past decade. If they want to save, they probably think savings account. Those don't earn much in a QE environment. You have to have a certain level of financial education to get ahead in today's world, and most people don't have it. They're one paycheck away from being broke is what most studies show.


3 - Foreign policy and participation in global organizations such as the UN has not kept the best interests of citizens at heart.

-Open trade policies may benefit our consumers with cheaper goods, but they also result in fewer manufacturing jobs. China did manipulate its currency for years to establish itself as a major exporter as the US and Europe closed many factories, shifting more into a service/retail/consumer economy.

-Our role as the police force of the world grows costlier and costlier to the taxpayer, and our vets pay the ultimate price, often to return with wounded psyches. The average voter in the US is pretty likely to either not understand why we owe the world our policing, or understand why the argument but disagree with it.  Exception if the enemy is ISIS and (mostly lone wolf) terrorists have attacked in multiple cities in the US and Europe and worldwide - it's easy to see why there would be support to fight this enemy.

-Immigration is not always seamless and many citizens, especially in Europe, have felt it has been forced upon them. This seemed to be a big factor for Brexit.



Anyone have any opinions on this topic?

One quote that comes to mind is by Newt Gingrich after he dropped out and supported Trump. He was repeating Trump's contention that America is less safe than it used to be. When confronted by a reporter who let him know that violent crime is actually declining he responded that polls show people feel less safe and then - "As a political candidate, I'll go with how people feel, and I'll let you go with the theoreticians."

It's a good reminder that the national mood isn't necessarily based on reality... but that doesn't necessarily matter, as is proven by Newt's candidate winning.












BDWW

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #1 on: November 28, 2018, 02:59:43 PM »
Only that I find it discouraging that response seems to be digging in heels, and pretending/asserting all the reasons are illegitimate.
Here, I think a lot of the reason Trump was elected was as a 'FU' to the establishment(media,politicians, etc.). Rather than trying to understand and work together on those concerns, it seems the narrative is just to assert they're all wrong/ignorant/deplorable and shout louder.


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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #2 on: November 28, 2018, 04:48:39 PM »
Quote
-The median male wage was higher in 1969 than it is today.

Do you have a source for this?  Because from everything I have read this is false.

J Boogie

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #3 on: November 29, 2018, 08:33:52 AM »
Quote
-The median male wage was higher in 1969 than it is today.

Do you have a source for this?  Because from everything I have read this is false.

Indeed I do.

I originally read it in this interview with Tyler Cowen.

https://www.npr.org/2017/03/02/517915510/americas-complacent-class-how-self-segregation-is-leading-to-stagnation

Tyler Cowen mentioned this statistic and of course NPR provided a link to an article. It was a WaPo article.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2012/07/31/wages-arent-stagnating-theyre-plummeting/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.619fe1896a93

This article references the work done by Michael Greenstone and Adam Looney of the Hamilton Project.

http://www.hamiltonproject.org/assets/legacy/files/downloads_and_links/07_milken_greenstone_looney.pdf



When confronted with these facts, a slogan like "Make America Great Again" can make a little more sense, especially to white men (and their spouses who benefit from their incomes) who are seeing a rising tide they're not a part of.  It's hard to untie ethnic nationalism from this movement, though Bannon strives to claim it is about citizenship, not ethnicity. But things have largely improved for women and non-whites over the past decades, so there isn't any growing "how'd we get here??" discontent to tap into. In a lot of ways things have improved for white men as well (innovations in medicine etc that have benefited everyone), but when your economic power isn't one of those things it doesn't feel like it.

I think the issue politically is that addressing this problem is hard to do without "tapping into white resentment" and dog whistling. Bernie and the left wing populist types have managed to do this pretty well, but they punt on immigration. People intuitively understand a nation has limited resources. Lax immigration policy + increasing entitlement spending is unsustainable on its face, whereas curbing spending on non-citizens to prioritize citizens is at least plausible.

It's true that Trump is continuing to run huge deficits and grow the national debt, but in theory it could make sense that you can allocate more for each citizen of a given country if you cap that number and limit spending on non-citizens (foreign bases, foreign aid, entitlements that undocumented immigrants can receive, etc).

Side note, it's a shame that Trump is doing this, because GW did it to pay for war in the ME and BO did it to get out of the recession, and now we just got used to overspending so we're missing our chance to pay down debt during a good economy. Our debt will become more and more expensive as QE tapers off.










ketchup

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #4 on: November 29, 2018, 09:55:55 AM »
The main legitimate problems I see presented from recent movements like this are the decline of unskilled/less-skilled jobs (and therefore plenty of the rust belt), and the current opioid crisis.

While I agree that they are problems, I probably disagree with them about both the most likely causes and best solutions.

partgypsy

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #5 on: November 29, 2018, 10:54:26 AM »
Over the past few years, I've come to develop a certain understanding of what's going across the globe.

I am fascinated by this topic and I regard most members on this board as very knowledgeable and insightful. I'd love to get a variety of takes on this topic. One request though - let's try to avoid excessive Trump talk, especially the more gossip column type of Trump talk. He gets too much of our time and attention already.

So here's a list of phenomena that I think nationalist populism is responding to.


1-Things aren't as good for white men as they used to be.

-The median male wage was higher in 1969 than it is today.

-Over the past 15 years, deaths of despair (substance abuse/suicide) have risen for white men, especially white men with high school or less education. The opposite has been observed for Non-white Hispanic men and black men.

Obviously, there are a number of factors at play here. Job loss, wage stagnation, social isolation, automation, outsourcing, and of course the scapegoats - immigration and the EPA. I would consider the "war on coal" and the millions of immigrants among the smaller factors involved, but they have an outsized role because they make pretty easy political targets.

2-The global elites have mismanaged the economy, or managed it perfectly to benefit the elite class while leaving the middle class out in the dark. Recessions are caused by the elites, but felt by the commoners. Bankers still got bonuses, no one went to jail, and so on.

- Steve Bannon likes to point out that in September 2008 the Fed's balance sheet was 1 trillion, and in 2017 it was 4.5 trillion. How relevant is this? I think most Trump voters probably don't understand the stock market, the Fed, interest rates, etc all that well. Blue collar workers typically get pensions, not 401ks. They don't invest in the stock market. Many probably missed out on the incredible gains of the past decade. If they want to save, they probably think savings account. Those don't earn much in a QE environment. You have to have a certain level of financial education to get ahead in today's world, and most people don't have it. They're one paycheck away from being broke is what most studies show.


3 - Foreign policy and participation in global organizations such as the UN has not kept the best interests of citizens at heart.

-Open trade policies may benefit our consumers with cheaper goods, but they also result in fewer manufacturing jobs. China did manipulate its currency for years to establish itself as a major exporter as the US and Europe closed many factories, shifting more into a service/retail/consumer economy.

-Our role as the police force of the world grows costlier and costlier to the taxpayer, and our vets pay the ultimate price, often to return with wounded psyches. The average voter in the US is pretty likely to either not understand why we owe the world our policing, or understand why the argument but disagree with it.  Exception if the enemy is ISIS and (mostly lone wolf) terrorists have attacked in multiple cities in the US and Europe and worldwide - it's easy to see why there would be support to fight this enemy.

-Immigration is not always seamless and many citizens, especially in Europe, have felt it has been forced upon them. This seemed to be a big factor for Brexit.



Anyone have any opinions on this topic?

One quote that comes to mind is by Newt Gingrich after he dropped out and supported Trump. He was repeating Trump's contention that America is less safe than it used to be. When confronted by a reporter who let him know that violent crime is actually declining he responded that polls show people feel less safe and then - "As a political candidate, I'll go with how people feel, and I'll let you go with the theoreticians."

It's a good reminder that the national mood isn't necessarily based on reality... but that doesn't necessarily matter, as is proven by Newt's candidate winning.

I'm not going to go through a blow by blow with your contentions, but you are making a lot of statements and generalizations without evidence.
"Things aren't as good for white men as they used to be." What does this even mean? You can argue the opposite, that the overall murder rate is down, men arn't being unvoluntarily drafted into a war where they may be maimed or killed, jobs overall are much more safe than the past. It's pretty standard men are awarded 50% custody during a divorce if they want (versus being standard the mother got custody), don't have the stress of being sole breadwinner in most marriages, alimony is not such a thing anymore etc etc. 

From what I've heard that inflation indexed wages have been stagnant. But in fact in 2017 inflation indexed wages are the highest they have been in decades. So not true unless you are in the lower quintiles where yes wages are completely stagnant.

I'll agree that the elites have rigged the system that benefits and wealth are flowing disproportionally towards the already very wealthy, and not towards the regular working class. You know who are disproportionally in the elite? White males. Those hated "liberals" are very concerned about the widening divide between the rich and poor, and the loss of the middle class, and pass legislation to address this. Like being able to have health insurance. Trying to make college education more affordable. Keep safety nets. Invest in new technology jobs and sectors. Nationalists have not addressed this is any meaningful or commonsense way. As far as not participating in stocks, my great grandfather was investing in stocks. There is literally no excuse for anyone in the past few decades not to invest for retirement. Where is the self-accountability going on?

"Foreign policy and participation in global organizations such as the UN has not kept the best interests of citizens at heart." That is a broad statement and I'm not sure what you mean by that. US in general has benefited for decades and decades in trade, where we buy oil and raw materials CHEAP from underdeveloped countries, and use it to disproportionally benefit ourselves. You can see just looking at GDP, mean wages, and even the number of millionaires and billionaires in the US. It's not an even spread across the globe, not even close, and that didn't happen by accident. Maybe those trade deals are becoming a little more fair to the less developed countries, but you can't say we didn't benefit. We benefit from being in the UN so a) we personally as a country dont have to get involved in individual conflicts, and b) prevent another WWIII. We have benefited. As far as Trump his policies are contradictory. He states we shouldn't be part of the UN anymore, that we are contributing too many troops. And says the US should be isolationist. However he increased the DOD budget and gave them even more money than the DOD requested! Talk to Trump if you think we are spending too much on defense. I agree we don't need that much for Defense. and the money is better allocated for say improving infrastructure and other jobs at home.

"Lax immigration policy" as others have mentioned, Obama detained and sent back a record number of illegal immigrants. Does it mean everything is perfect? No but immigration per se is not the bugaboo some politicians are making it out to be. And in case people forget, if someone is an illegal immigrant no they are not collecting entitlements (even though many are paying taxes). 

"Increasing entitlement spending is unsustainable on its face" it's all a matter of numbers. We need to balance the budget. It will mean a combination of increased income (taxes)/reducing benefits/raising entitlement age. Unfortunately we have an administration who has both increased spending, and reduced income (cutting taxes, too primarily benefit the wealthy).  Also if we transitioned to a fully nationalized health care system, other countries who have done this spend around HALF what we do on health care per citizen, with much better outcomes. Healthcare dollars would go much farther. That's why if Bernie runs again, I'm going to vote for him. 
« Last Edit: November 29, 2018, 11:05:54 AM by partgypsy »

GuitarStv

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #6 on: November 29, 2018, 11:15:32 AM »
3 - Foreign policy and participation in global organizations such as the UN has not kept the best interests of citizens at heart.

-Open trade policies may benefit our consumers with cheaper goods, but they also result in fewer manufacturing jobs. China did manipulate its currency for years to establish itself as a major exporter as the US and Europe closed many factories, shifting more into a service/retail/consumer economy.

I guess this depends on what you think the best interests of the citizens are.  Are manufacturing jobs more important than cheaper goods?  Do you own a cell phone?  Would you prefer that manufacturing jobs stay in America, but the cellphone costs several grand to buy?  Does that make the lives of people in the US better?

I honestly don't know.



-Our role as the police force of the world grows costlier and costlier to the taxpayer, and our vets pay the ultimate price, often to return with wounded psyches. The average voter in the US is pretty likely to either not understand why we owe the world our policing, or understand why the argument but disagree with it.  Exception if the enemy is ISIS and (mostly lone wolf) terrorists have attacked in multiple cities in the US and Europe and worldwide - it's easy to see why there would be support to fight this enemy.

There are some areas where people are very happy to have Americans acting as a police force for the world.  It's important to remember that there are a great many areas where people do not want the US acting as a police force but American will is enforced anyway.  Much of the foreign action taken by the US has historically been self-serving, but few Americans seem to realize this.



-Immigration is not always seamless and many citizens, especially in Europe, have felt it has been forced upon them. This seemed to be a big factor for Brexit.

It is in our nature to form clans and band together against 'the other', whoever that may be.  It's important to remember that America was founded by illegal immigrants, and that large influxes of immigrants have through history always helped to make it a better country.

J Boogie

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #7 on: November 29, 2018, 01:32:42 PM »
Over the past few years, I've come to develop a certain understanding of what's going across the globe.

I am fascinated by this topic and I regard most members on this board as very knowledgeable and insightful. I'd love to get a variety of takes on this topic. One request though - let's try to avoid excessive Trump talk, especially the more gossip column type of Trump talk. He gets too much of our time and attention already.

So here's a list of phenomena that I think nationalist populism is responding to.


1-Things aren't as good for white men as they used to be.

-The median male wage was higher in 1969 than it is today.

-Over the past 15 years, deaths of despair (substance abuse/suicide) have risen for white men, especially white men with high school or less education. The opposite has been observed for Non-white Hispanic men and black men.

Obviously, there are a number of factors at play here. Job loss, wage stagnation, social isolation, automation, outsourcing, and of course the scapegoats - immigration and the EPA. I would consider the "war on coal" and the millions of immigrants among the smaller factors involved, but they have an outsized role because they make pretty easy political targets.

2-The global elites have mismanaged the economy, or managed it perfectly to benefit the elite class while leaving the middle class out in the dark. Recessions are caused by the elites, but felt by the commoners. Bankers still got bonuses, no one went to jail, and so on.

- Steve Bannon likes to point out that in September 2008 the Fed's balance sheet was 1 trillion, and in 2017 it was 4.5 trillion. How relevant is this? I think most Trump voters probably don't understand the stock market, the Fed, interest rates, etc all that well. Blue collar workers typically get pensions, not 401ks. They don't invest in the stock market. Many probably missed out on the incredible gains of the past decade. If they want to save, they probably think savings account. Those don't earn much in a QE environment. You have to have a certain level of financial education to get ahead in today's world, and most people don't have it. They're one paycheck away from being broke is what most studies show.


3 - Foreign policy and participation in global organizations such as the UN has not kept the best interests of citizens at heart.

-Open trade policies may benefit our consumers with cheaper goods, but they also result in fewer manufacturing jobs. China did manipulate its currency for years to establish itself as a major exporter as the US and Europe closed many factories, shifting more into a service/retail/consumer economy.

-Our role as the police force of the world grows costlier and costlier to the taxpayer, and our vets pay the ultimate price, often to return with wounded psyches. The average voter in the US is pretty likely to either not understand why we owe the world our policing, or understand why the argument but disagree with it.  Exception if the enemy is ISIS and (mostly lone wolf) terrorists have attacked in multiple cities in the US and Europe and worldwide - it's easy to see why there would be support to fight this enemy.

-Immigration is not always seamless and many citizens, especially in Europe, have felt it has been forced upon them. This seemed to be a big factor for Brexit.



Anyone have any opinions on this topic?

One quote that comes to mind is by Newt Gingrich after he dropped out and supported Trump. He was repeating Trump's contention that America is less safe than it used to be. When confronted by a reporter who let him know that violent crime is actually declining he responded that polls show people feel less safe and then - "As a political candidate, I'll go with how people feel, and I'll let you go with the theoreticians."

It's a good reminder that the national mood isn't necessarily based on reality... but that doesn't necessarily matter, as is proven by Newt's candidate winning.

I'm not going to go through a blow by blow with your contentions, but you are making a lot of statements and generalizations without evidence.
"Things aren't as good for white men as they used to be." What does this even mean? You can argue the opposite, that the overall murder rate is down, men arn't being unvoluntarily drafted into a war where they may be maimed or killed, jobs overall are much more safe than the past. It's pretty standard men are awarded 50% custody during a divorce if they want (versus being standard the mother got custody), don't have the stress of being sole breadwinner in most marriages, alimony is not such a thing anymore etc etc. 

From what I've heard that inflation indexed wages have been stagnant. But in fact in 2017 inflation indexed wages are the highest they have been in decades. So not true unless you are in the lower quintiles where yes wages are completely stagnant.

I'll agree that the elites have rigged the system that benefits and wealth are flowing disproportionally towards the already very wealthy, and not towards the regular working class. You know who are disproportionally in the elite? White males. Those hated "liberals" are very concerned about the widening divide between the rich and poor, and the loss of the middle class, and pass legislation to address this. Like being able to have health insurance. Trying to make college education more affordable. Keep safety nets. Invest in new technology jobs and sectors. Nationalists have not addressed this is any meaningful or commonsense way. As far as not participating in stocks, my great grandfather was investing in stocks. There is literally no excuse for anyone in the past few decades not to invest for retirement. Where is the self-accountability going on?


Thanks for engaging, PartyGypsy.

I am making a lot of broad general statements to summarize here, but I am providing data and if you want I can include more links. Here's an NPR article that expands upon how the rate of "deaths of despair" is increasing for white men in the US.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2017/03/23/521083335/the-forces-driving-middle-aged-white-peoples-deaths-of-despair

I think you are a little too focused on the contradictory elements within America's current GOP.  I agree with you, nationalist populism doesn't dovetail perfectly with the US conservative priorities we've grown accustomed to over the past couple decades - free market, less government, neoconservative foreign policy, anti-abortion rights, huge tax breaks etc. These either aren't part of a national populist platform or disagree with it entirely. Trump coming at the time he did and being as inconsistent and unfocused as he is, I'm not surprised to see his presidency is a strange brew with elements of each.

Regarding wages, I'll expand on this a bit more. Education level plays a massive role in the statistic I shared. From 1969-2009, wages for men with only a HS diploma declined by 47%. Not a typo.

Page 13. http://www.hamiltonproject.org/assets/legacy/files/downloads_and_links/07_milken_greenstone_looney.pdf

I know you mentioned bottom quintile. But think about this again. Over 70% of white citizens in the US do not have a bachelor's degree. Out of roughly 200 million, that's 140 million. If we say half of them are men, That's 70 million men who, over the years, went from hero to zero. No wonder they were ready for a candidate that didn't worship at altar of the free market and pointed their frustration in the direction of China, Mexico, the UN, and the EPA.

So when I say things aren't as good for white men as they used to be, that's what I mean. White men didn't have to get education, they didn't have to think about a career path, they didn't have to invest wisely (due to pensions), and they enjoyed a high quality of life.

I'm not telling some sob story. I don't have any particular sympathy for white people as a group - my point is that this phenomenon is real, not imagined.

You seem to be frustrated that the deplorables haven't found the democratic party to be an obvious solution for these problems. Well, I think the deplorables probably would be a more logical fit in that platform. But they have a strong aversion to the openness of the progressives. They've taken their lumps and they're not very optimistic. They want to bring back their heyday, not usher in a new heyday for some other group. Anyways, I'm not saying nationalists have come up with smart solutions. I'm saying let's explore some of the issues that cause this dangerous movement across the globe.
















shenlong55

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #8 on: November 29, 2018, 01:41:32 PM »
You seem to be frustrated that the deplorables haven't found the democratic party to be an obvious solution for these problems. Well, I think the deplorables probably would be a more logical fit in that platform. But they have a strong aversion to the openness of the progressives. They've taken their lumps and they're not very optimistic. They want to bring back their heyday, not usher in a new heyday for some other group. Anyways, I'm not saying nationalists have come up with smart solutions. I'm saying let's explore some of the issues that cause this dangerous movement across the globe.

Could you explain what you mean by the bolded a bit more?

J Boogie

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #9 on: November 29, 2018, 01:55:51 PM »

"Lax immigration policy" as others have mentioned, Obama detained and sent back a record number of illegal immigrants. Does it mean everything is perfect? No but immigration per se is not the bugaboo some politicians are making it out to be. And in case people forget, if someone is an illegal immigrant no they are not collecting entitlements (even though many are paying taxes). 

"Increasing entitlement spending is unsustainable on its face" it's all a matter of numbers. We need to balance the budget.

Ah but remember Newt Gingrich's quote about feelings over facts. The Obama admin may have been low-key tough on immigration, but what matters in the minds of voters is how they feel the left acts on immigration. And the left definitely positions itself as the pro-immigration party that wants to let more refugees in and doesn't want to deport.

Regarding undocumented immigrants, maybe they don't collect entitlements, but they do receive healthcare (18.5b a year) and education (Btwn 11-30b a year) as they contribute 11.64b in taxes. So it's hard to argue they are net contributors. While this 20-35b they receive in subsidies is pretty small in the grand scheme of things, the Gingrich quote comes to mind again. It's a major factor when it comes to identity and resentment politics.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_impact_of_illegal_immigrants_in_the_United_States


J Boogie

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #10 on: November 29, 2018, 02:13:47 PM »
You seem to be frustrated that the deplorables haven't found the democratic party to be an obvious solution for these problems. Well, I think the deplorables probably would be a more logical fit in that platform. But they have a strong aversion to the openness of the progressives. They've taken their lumps and they're not very optimistic. They want to bring back their heyday, not usher in a new heyday for some other group. Anyways, I'm not saying nationalists have come up with smart solutions. I'm saying let's explore some of the issues that cause this dangerous movement across the globe.

Could you explain what you mean by the bolded a bit more?

I mean that they're tribal. They are at best tribal as nationalists and at worst ethnically tribal. Right now they are not interested in prioritizing the wellbeing of refugees from the Middle East, and they are not interested in offering a safer and more prosperous home to Latin Americans. Whether it's because they're culturally/racially different or because they're from a different nation doesn't end up making a big difference.

They're not putting coexist bumper stickers on their cars, they're not attending pride parades, and they're not impressed by big corporations showing how important diversity is to them. Does that help illustrate what I mean? I'm trying to use descriptive, colorful language without being unnecessarily pejorative of anyone or their beliefs. Maybe this quote will help.

Steve Bannon:

"Hereís the concept of right-wing populism. If the í80s and the way we got in this debacle was this radical idea of maximization of shareholder value, hereís what right-wing populism stands for. Itís a very simple concept. Weíre going to maximize the value of citizenship. Hereís how many H-1B visas I want: none. Until we get Baltimore, Detroit, and St. Louis with, you know, youth unemployment down to zero, and people making high value-added jobs, I donít need any foreigners. And Iím not a racist. What I want is our citizens to get the jobs."




J Boogie

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #11 on: November 29, 2018, 02:21:05 PM »
There are some areas where people are very happy to have Americans acting as a police force for the world.  It's important to remember that there are a great many areas where people do not want the US acting as a police force but American will is enforced anyway.  Much of the foreign action taken by the US has historically been self-serving, but few Americans seem to realize this.

Well, it comes down who it is that truly benefits. I don't think it's always the citizens of the US.

Quote from Smedley Butler, USMC:

ďI spent 33 years and four months in active military service and during that period I spent most of my time as a high class muscle man for Big Business, for Wall Street and the bankers. In short, I was a racketeer, a gangster for capitalism. I helped make Mexico and especially Tampico safe for American oil interests in 1914. I helped make Haiti and Cuba a decent place for the National City Bank boys to collect revenues in. I helped in the raping of half a dozen Central American republics for the benefit of Wall Street. I helped purify Nicaragua for the International Banking House of Brown Brothers in 1902-1912. I brought light to the Dominican Republic for the American sugar interests in 1916. I helped make Honduras right for the American fruit companies in 1903. In China in 1927 I helped see to it that Standard Oil went on its way unmolested. Looking back on it, I might have given Al Capone a few hints. The best he could do was to operate his racket in three districts. I operated on three continents.Ē

ketchup

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #12 on: November 29, 2018, 02:29:52 PM »
Regarding undocumented immigrants, maybe they don't collect entitlements, but they do receive healthcare (18.5b a year) and education (Btwn 11-30b a year) as they contribute 11.64b in taxes. So it's hard to argue they are net contributors. While this 20-35b they receive in subsidies is pretty small in the grand scheme of things, the Gingrich quote comes to mind again. It's a major factor when it comes to identity and resentment politics.
By this same metric, is Mississippi a net contributor to our country? Is this the measuring stick?

JLee

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #13 on: November 29, 2018, 02:47:48 PM »
Thanks for engaging, PartyGypsy.

I am making a lot of broad general statements to summarize here, but I am providing data and if you want I can include more links. Here's an NPR article that expands upon how the rate of "deaths of despair" is increasing for white men in the US.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2017/03/23/521083335/the-forces-driving-middle-aged-white-peoples-deaths-of-despair

I think you are a little too focused on the contradictory elements within America's current GOP.  I agree with you, nationalist populism doesn't dovetail perfectly with the US conservative priorities we've grown accustomed to over the past couple decades - free market, less government, neoconservative foreign policy, anti-abortion rights, huge tax breaks etc. These either aren't part of a national populist platform or disagree with it entirely. Trump coming at the time he did and being as inconsistent and unfocused as he is, I'm not surprised to see his presidency is a strange brew with elements of each.

Regarding wages, I'll expand on this a bit more. Education level plays a massive role in the statistic I shared. From 1969-2009, wages for men with only a HS diploma declined by 47%. Not a typo.

Page 13. http://www.hamiltonproject.org/assets/legacy/files/downloads_and_links/07_milken_greenstone_looney.pdf

I know you mentioned bottom quintile. But think about this again. Over 70% of white citizens in the US do not have a bachelor's degree. Out of roughly 200 million, that's 140 million. If we say half of them are men, That's 70 million men who, over the years, went from hero to zero. No wonder they were ready for a candidate that didn't worship at altar of the free market and pointed their frustration in the direction of China, Mexico, the UN, and the EPA.

So when I say things aren't as good for white men as they used to be, that's what I mean. White men didn't have to get education, they didn't have to think about a career path, they didn't have to invest wisely (due to pensions), and they enjoyed a high quality of life.

I'm not telling some sob story. I don't have any particular sympathy for white people as a group - my point is that this phenomenon is real, not imagined.

You seem to be frustrated that the deplorables haven't found the democratic party to be an obvious solution for these problems. Well, I think the deplorables probably would be a more logical fit in that platform. But they have a strong aversion to the openness of the progressives. They've taken their lumps and they're not very optimistic. They want to bring back their heyday, not usher in a new heyday for some other group. Anyways, I'm not saying nationalists have come up with smart solutions. I'm saying let's explore some of the issues that cause this dangerous movement across the globe.

I don't have particularly recent data, but in 2012the entire workforce was approximately 155 million.  64% of those were non-hispanic white, or 99.2 million. Overall, women are 47% of the workforce. 67% of women in the workforce are non-hispanic white, which lines up pretty close to the overall 64% of the workforce as a whole. 

If we run that, 155 mil workforce comes out to 99.2 million white people in the workforce, or ~52.5 million white men.

1/3 of US adults have 4 year degrees or higher the entire workforce was approximately 155 million.  64% of those were non-hispanic white, or 99.2 million. Overall, women are 47% of the workforce. 67% of women in the workforce are non-hispanic white, which lines up pretty close to the overall 64% of the workforce as a whole. 

If we run that, 155 mil workforce comes out to 99.2 million white people in the workforce, or ~52.5 million white men.

1/3 of US adults have 4 year degrees or higher, though to be fair I don't know how many are in the workforce.  Given that less than 30% of people above the age of 55 have a four year degree, it won't likely impact the numbers all that much.

52.5 million white men in the workforce at all, and according to the numbers above about 1/3 of them have degrees.  This leaves us with fewer than 35 million degree-less white men in the workforce, not 70 million.

I don't necessarily disagree with your overall point, but the numbers are wayyyyyy off. :)
« Last Edit: November 29, 2018, 02:49:32 PM by JLee »

J Boogie

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #14 on: November 29, 2018, 02:48:21 PM »
Regarding undocumented immigrants, maybe they don't collect entitlements, but they do receive healthcare (18.5b a year) and education (Btwn 11-30b a year) as they contribute 11.64b in taxes. So it's hard to argue they are net contributors. While this 20-35b they receive in subsidies is pretty small in the grand scheme of things, the Gingrich quote comes to mind again. It's a major factor when it comes to identity and resentment politics.
By this same metric, is Mississippi a net contributor to our country? Is this the measuring stick?

I'm not sure if Mississippi is a net contributor but that's a state, not a group of unassociated people. Regardless, I imagine the recourse should be similar - consider policies that could result in a more mutually beneficial relationship. I imagine your real question is whether or not the US is right to demand a mutually beneficial relationship from the immigrants it takes in. I'm not sure. Young (undocumented or not) immigrants are great for the US to keep SS payments flowing as people age and stop paying into the system. Many developed nations are facing shortages of young people.

So maybe it's not the best measuring stick, it's probably better to take the long view. But in general I do agree with Steve Bannon's assertion that a country's primary duty is to act in the best interests of its own citizens.


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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #15 on: November 29, 2018, 02:55:40 PM »
Regarding undocumented immigrants, maybe they don't collect entitlements, but they do receive healthcare (18.5b a year) and education (Btwn 11-30b a year) as they contribute 11.64b in taxes. So it's hard to argue they are net contributors. While this 20-35b they receive in subsidies is pretty small in the grand scheme of things, the Gingrich quote comes to mind again. It's a major factor when it comes to identity and resentment politics.
By this same metric, is Mississippi a net contributor to our country? Is this the measuring stick?

I'm not sure if Mississippi is a net contributor but that's a state, not a group of unassociated people. Regardless, I imagine the recourse should be similar - consider policies that could result in a more mutually beneficial relationship. I imagine your real question is whether or not the US is right to demand a mutually beneficial relationship from the immigrants it takes in. I'm not sure. Young (undocumented or not) immigrants are great for the US to keep SS payments flowing as people age and stop paying into the system. Many developed nations are facing shortages of young people.

So maybe it's not the best measuring stick, it's probably better to take the long view. But in general I do agree with Steve Bannon's assertion that a country's primary duty is to act in the best interests of its own citizens.
Sort of.  I just see "not a net contributor" as a weird metric.  The homeless population is almost assuredly not "net contributors" to society, so fuck the homeless, right? (not suggesting you actually feel that way)

J Boogie

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #16 on: November 29, 2018, 02:56:45 PM »
Thanks for engaging, PartyGypsy.

I am making a lot of broad general statements to summarize here, but I am providing data and if you want I can include more links. Here's an NPR article that expands upon how the rate of "deaths of despair" is increasing for white men in the US.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2017/03/23/521083335/the-forces-driving-middle-aged-white-peoples-deaths-of-despair

I think you are a little too focused on the contradictory elements within America's current GOP.  I agree with you, nationalist populism doesn't dovetail perfectly with the US conservative priorities we've grown accustomed to over the past couple decades - free market, less government, neoconservative foreign policy, anti-abortion rights, huge tax breaks etc. These either aren't part of a national populist platform or disagree with it entirely. Trump coming at the time he did and being as inconsistent and unfocused as he is, I'm not surprised to see his presidency is a strange brew with elements of each.

Regarding wages, I'll expand on this a bit more. Education level plays a massive role in the statistic I shared. From 1969-2009, wages for men with only a HS diploma declined by 47%. Not a typo.

Page 13. http://www.hamiltonproject.org/assets/legacy/files/downloads_and_links/07_milken_greenstone_looney.pdf

I know you mentioned bottom quintile. But think about this again. Over 70% of white citizens in the US do not have a bachelor's degree. Out of roughly 200 million, that's 140 million. If we say half of them are men, That's 70 million men who, over the years, went from hero to zero. No wonder they were ready for a candidate that didn't worship at altar of the free market and pointed their frustration in the direction of China, Mexico, the UN, and the EPA.

So when I say things aren't as good for white men as they used to be, that's what I mean. White men didn't have to get education, they didn't have to think about a career path, they didn't have to invest wisely (due to pensions), and they enjoyed a high quality of life.

I'm not telling some sob story. I don't have any particular sympathy for white people as a group - my point is that this phenomenon is real, not imagined.

You seem to be frustrated that the deplorables haven't found the democratic party to be an obvious solution for these problems. Well, I think the deplorables probably would be a more logical fit in that platform. But they have a strong aversion to the openness of the progressives. They've taken their lumps and they're not very optimistic. They want to bring back their heyday, not usher in a new heyday for some other group. Anyways, I'm not saying nationalists have come up with smart solutions. I'm saying let's explore some of the issues that cause this dangerous movement across the globe.

I don't have particularly recent data, but in 2012the entire workforce was approximately 155 million.  64% of those were non-hispanic white, or 99.2 million. Overall, women are 47% of the workforce. 67% of women in the workforce are non-hispanic white, which lines up pretty close to the overall 64% of the workforce as a whole. 

If we run that, 155 mil workforce comes out to 99.2 million white people in the workforce, or ~52.5 million white men.

1/3 of US adults have 4 year degrees or higher the entire workforce was approximately 155 million.  64% of those were non-hispanic white, or 99.2 million. Overall, women are 47% of the workforce. 67% of women in the workforce are non-hispanic white, which lines up pretty close to the overall 64% of the workforce as a whole. 

If we run that, 155 mil workforce comes out to 99.2 million white people in the workforce, or ~52.5 million white men.

1/3 of US adults have 4 year degrees or higher, though to be fair I don't know how many are in the workforce.  Given that less than 30% of people above the age of 55 have a four year degree, it won't likely impact the numbers all that much.

52.5 million white men in the workforce at all, and according to the numbers above about 1/3 of them have degrees.  This leaves us with fewer than 35 million degree-less white men in the workforce, not 70 million.

I don't necessarily disagree with your overall point, but the numbers are wayyyyyy off. :)

Well, you're pulling your data from workforce numbers.

I admit I used some back of the napkin calculations derived from total population demographics, but one of the key takeaways from the study I shared is that uneducated white men have experienced a 23 percentage point decline in the probability of having any labor-market earnings.

It's very possible my 70 million number is high. But your 35 million number is too low as it doesn't include any of the uneducated white men who are no longer participating in the work force.

JLee

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #17 on: November 29, 2018, 02:59:49 PM »
Thanks for engaging, PartyGypsy.

I am making a lot of broad general statements to summarize here, but I am providing data and if you want I can include more links. Here's an NPR article that expands upon how the rate of "deaths of despair" is increasing for white men in the US.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2017/03/23/521083335/the-forces-driving-middle-aged-white-peoples-deaths-of-despair

I think you are a little too focused on the contradictory elements within America's current GOP.  I agree with you, nationalist populism doesn't dovetail perfectly with the US conservative priorities we've grown accustomed to over the past couple decades - free market, less government, neoconservative foreign policy, anti-abortion rights, huge tax breaks etc. These either aren't part of a national populist platform or disagree with it entirely. Trump coming at the time he did and being as inconsistent and unfocused as he is, I'm not surprised to see his presidency is a strange brew with elements of each.

Regarding wages, I'll expand on this a bit more. Education level plays a massive role in the statistic I shared. From 1969-2009, wages for men with only a HS diploma declined by 47%. Not a typo.

Page 13. http://www.hamiltonproject.org/assets/legacy/files/downloads_and_links/07_milken_greenstone_looney.pdf

I know you mentioned bottom quintile. But think about this again. Over 70% of white citizens in the US do not have a bachelor's degree. Out of roughly 200 million, that's 140 million. If we say half of them are men, That's 70 million men who, over the years, went from hero to zero. No wonder they were ready for a candidate that didn't worship at altar of the free market and pointed their frustration in the direction of China, Mexico, the UN, and the EPA.

So when I say things aren't as good for white men as they used to be, that's what I mean. White men didn't have to get education, they didn't have to think about a career path, they didn't have to invest wisely (due to pensions), and they enjoyed a high quality of life.

I'm not telling some sob story. I don't have any particular sympathy for white people as a group - my point is that this phenomenon is real, not imagined.

You seem to be frustrated that the deplorables haven't found the democratic party to be an obvious solution for these problems. Well, I think the deplorables probably would be a more logical fit in that platform. But they have a strong aversion to the openness of the progressives. They've taken their lumps and they're not very optimistic. They want to bring back their heyday, not usher in a new heyday for some other group. Anyways, I'm not saying nationalists have come up with smart solutions. I'm saying let's explore some of the issues that cause this dangerous movement across the globe.

I don't have particularly recent data, but in 2012the entire workforce was approximately 155 million.  64% of those were non-hispanic white, or 99.2 million. Overall, women are 47% of the workforce. 67% of women in the workforce are non-hispanic white, which lines up pretty close to the overall 64% of the workforce as a whole. 

If we run that, 155 mil workforce comes out to 99.2 million white people in the workforce, or ~52.5 million white men.

1/3 of US adults have 4 year degrees or higher the entire workforce was approximately 155 million.  64% of those were non-hispanic white, or 99.2 million. Overall, women are 47% of the workforce. 67% of women in the workforce are non-hispanic white, which lines up pretty close to the overall 64% of the workforce as a whole. 

If we run that, 155 mil workforce comes out to 99.2 million white people in the workforce, or ~52.5 million white men.

1/3 of US adults have 4 year degrees or higher, though to be fair I don't know how many are in the workforce.  Given that less than 30% of people above the age of 55 have a four year degree, it won't likely impact the numbers all that much.

52.5 million white men in the workforce at all, and according to the numbers above about 1/3 of them have degrees.  This leaves us with fewer than 35 million degree-less white men in the workforce, not 70 million.

I don't necessarily disagree with your overall point, but the numbers are wayyyyyy off. :)

Well, you're pulling your data from workforce numbers.

I admit I used some back of the napkin calculations derived from total population demographics, but one of the key takeaways from the study I shared is that uneducated white men have experienced a 23 percentage point decline in the probability of having any labor-market earnings.

It's very possible my 70 million number is high. But your 35 million number is too low as it doesn't include any of the uneducated white men who are no longer participating in the work force.

Of course I am -- toddlers not having bachelor's degrees does not a relevant comparison make. ;)

J Boogie

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #18 on: November 29, 2018, 03:01:09 PM »
Regarding undocumented immigrants, maybe they don't collect entitlements, but they do receive healthcare (18.5b a year) and education (Btwn 11-30b a year) as they contribute 11.64b in taxes. So it's hard to argue they are net contributors. While this 20-35b they receive in subsidies is pretty small in the grand scheme of things, the Gingrich quote comes to mind again. It's a major factor when it comes to identity and resentment politics.
By this same metric, is Mississippi a net contributor to our country? Is this the measuring stick?

I'm not sure if Mississippi is a net contributor but that's a state, not a group of unassociated people. Regardless, I imagine the recourse should be similar - consider policies that could result in a more mutually beneficial relationship. I imagine your real question is whether or not the US is right to demand a mutually beneficial relationship from the immigrants it takes in. I'm not sure. Young (undocumented or not) immigrants are great for the US to keep SS payments flowing as people age and stop paying into the system. Many developed nations are facing shortages of young people.

So maybe it's not the best measuring stick, it's probably better to take the long view. But in general I do agree with Steve Bannon's assertion that a country's primary duty is to act in the best interests of its own citizens.
Sort of.  I just see "not a net contributor" as a weird metric.  The homeless population is almost assuredly not "net contributors" to society, so fuck the homeless, right? (not suggesting you actually feel that way)

Well, it's data worth having access to. It's a hot button issue and people make uninformed statements to bolster their policy arguments all the time.

We know what's coming in and out of our personal bank accounts. Why wouldn't we want to know what's going in and out of our community bank accounts?

There's no weird metrics. Only weird policies (such as fuck the homeless).

J Boogie

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #19 on: November 29, 2018, 03:10:06 PM »
Thanks for engaging, PartyGypsy.

I am making a lot of broad general statements to summarize here, but I am providing data and if you want I can include more links. Here's an NPR article that expands upon how the rate of "deaths of despair" is increasing for white men in the US.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2017/03/23/521083335/the-forces-driving-middle-aged-white-peoples-deaths-of-despair

I think you are a little too focused on the contradictory elements within America's current GOP.  I agree with you, nationalist populism doesn't dovetail perfectly with the US conservative priorities we've grown accustomed to over the past couple decades - free market, less government, neoconservative foreign policy, anti-abortion rights, huge tax breaks etc. These either aren't part of a national populist platform or disagree with it entirely. Trump coming at the time he did and being as inconsistent and unfocused as he is, I'm not surprised to see his presidency is a strange brew with elements of each.

Regarding wages, I'll expand on this a bit more. Education level plays a massive role in the statistic I shared. From 1969-2009, wages for men with only a HS diploma declined by 47%. Not a typo.

Page 13. http://www.hamiltonproject.org/assets/legacy/files/downloads_and_links/07_milken_greenstone_looney.pdf

I know you mentioned bottom quintile. But think about this again. Over 70% of white citizens in the US do not have a bachelor's degree. Out of roughly 200 million, that's 140 million. If we say half of them are men, That's 70 million men who, over the years, went from hero to zero. No wonder they were ready for a candidate that didn't worship at altar of the free market and pointed their frustration in the direction of China, Mexico, the UN, and the EPA.

So when I say things aren't as good for white men as they used to be, that's what I mean. White men didn't have to get education, they didn't have to think about a career path, they didn't have to invest wisely (due to pensions), and they enjoyed a high quality of life.

I'm not telling some sob story. I don't have any particular sympathy for white people as a group - my point is that this phenomenon is real, not imagined.

You seem to be frustrated that the deplorables haven't found the democratic party to be an obvious solution for these problems. Well, I think the deplorables probably would be a more logical fit in that platform. But they have a strong aversion to the openness of the progressives. They've taken their lumps and they're not very optimistic. They want to bring back their heyday, not usher in a new heyday for some other group. Anyways, I'm not saying nationalists have come up with smart solutions. I'm saying let's explore some of the issues that cause this dangerous movement across the globe.

I don't have particularly recent data, but in 2012the entire workforce was approximately 155 million.  64% of those were non-hispanic white, or 99.2 million. Overall, women are 47% of the workforce. 67% of women in the workforce are non-hispanic white, which lines up pretty close to the overall 64% of the workforce as a whole. 

If we run that, 155 mil workforce comes out to 99.2 million white people in the workforce, or ~52.5 million white men.

1/3 of US adults have 4 year degrees or higher the entire workforce was approximately 155 million.  64% of those were non-hispanic white, or 99.2 million. Overall, women are 47% of the workforce. 67% of women in the workforce are non-hispanic white, which lines up pretty close to the overall 64% of the workforce as a whole. 

If we run that, 155 mil workforce comes out to 99.2 million white people in the workforce, or ~52.5 million white men.

1/3 of US adults have 4 year degrees or higher, though to be fair I don't know how many are in the workforce.  Given that less than 30% of people above the age of 55 have a four year degree, it won't likely impact the numbers all that much.

52.5 million white men in the workforce at all, and according to the numbers above about 1/3 of them have degrees.  This leaves us with fewer than 35 million degree-less white men in the workforce, not 70 million.

I don't necessarily disagree with your overall point, but the numbers are wayyyyyy off. :)

Well, you're pulling your data from workforce numbers.

I admit I used some back of the napkin calculations derived from total population demographics, but one of the key takeaways from the study I shared is that uneducated white men have experienced a 23 percentage point decline in the probability of having any labor-market earnings.

It's very possible my 70 million number is high. But your 35 million number is too low as it doesn't include any of the uneducated white men who are no longer participating in the work force.

Of course I am -- toddlers not having bachelor's degrees does not a relevant comparison make. ;)

Got me there :)

I guess I'd have to subtract 25 million or so... around 45 million... This is feeling like craigslist :)

Kris

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #20 on: November 29, 2018, 06:14:43 PM »
Hatredof the other by ignorant people is not new. Itís been justified even toward Americans.

http://rudepundit.blogspot.com/2018/11/there-are-always-migrants-theyve-always.html

DreamFIRE

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #21 on: November 29, 2018, 06:54:35 PM »

"Lax immigration policy" as others have mentioned, Obama detained and sent back a record number of illegal immigrants. Does it mean everything is perfect? No but immigration per se is not the bugaboo some politicians are making it out to be. And in case people forget, if someone is an illegal immigrant no they are not collecting entitlements (even though many are paying taxes). 

"Increasing entitlement spending is unsustainable on its face" it's all a matter of numbers. We need to balance the budget.

Ah but remember Newt Gingrich's quote about feelings over facts. The Obama admin may have been low-key tough on immigration, but what matters in the minds of voters is how they feel the left acts on immigration. And the left definitely positions itself as the pro-immigration party that wants to let more refugees in and doesn't want to deport.

Regarding undocumented immigrants, maybe they don't collect entitlements, but they do receive healthcare (18.5b a year) and education (Btwn 11-30b a year) as they contribute 11.64b in taxes. So it's hard to argue they are net contributors. While this 20-35b they receive in subsidies is pretty small in the grand scheme of things, the Gingrich quote comes to mind again. It's a major factor when it comes to identity and resentment politics.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_impact_of_illegal_immigrants_in_the_United_States

Illegal aliens are far more costly than most people realize or that liberals will ever admit.  The average  American is a net taker, as I've posted the numbers on that before, but illegals are even worse.

A Heritage study calculated one of the previous amnesty bills to cost U.S. taxpayers over 6 trillion dollars years ago, and you can be certain the figure is much higher now:

https://www.heritage.org/immigration/report/the-fiscal-cost-unlawful-immigrants-and-amnesty-the-us-taxpayer

Gin1984

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #22 on: November 29, 2018, 07:46:58 PM »

"Lax immigration policy" as others have mentioned, Obama detained and sent back a record number of illegal immigrants. Does it mean everything is perfect? No but immigration per se is not the bugaboo some politicians are making it out to be. And in case people forget, if someone is an illegal immigrant no they are not collecting entitlements (even though many are paying taxes). 

"Increasing entitlement spending is unsustainable on its face" it's all a matter of numbers. We need to balance the budget.

Ah but remember Newt Gingrich's quote about feelings over facts. The Obama admin may have been low-key tough on immigration, but what matters in the minds of voters is how they feel the left acts on immigration. And the left definitely positions itself as the pro-immigration party that wants to let more refugees in and doesn't want to deport.

Regarding undocumented immigrants, maybe they don't collect entitlements, but they do receive healthcare (18.5b a year) and education (Btwn 11-30b a year) as they contribute 11.64b in taxes. So it's hard to argue they are net contributors. While this 20-35b they receive in subsidies is pretty small in the grand scheme of things, the Gingrich quote comes to mind again. It's a major factor when it comes to identity and resentment politics.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_impact_of_illegal_immigrants_in_the_United_States

Illegal aliens are far more costly than most people realize or that liberals will ever admit.  The average  American is a net taker, as I've posted the numbers on that before, but illegals are even worse.

A Heritage study calculated one of the previous amnesty bills to cost U.S. taxpayers over 6 trillion dollars years ago, and you can be certain the figure is much higher now:

https://www.heritage.org/immigration/report/the-fiscal-cost-unlawful-immigrants-and-amnesty-the-us-taxpayer
Heritage has been shown to publish false "studies" that do not match the data they use, or misuse the data.

EricL

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #23 on: November 29, 2018, 08:23:21 PM »
I tend to agree that things arenít as good for white men as they used to be.  But things still suck by comparison for women and minorities who are mostly still behind.  Fixing the former doesnít help the latter and fixing the latter isnít an automatic fail for the former.

 Is it too much to ask we donít boil it all down to a zero sum game?

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #24 on: November 30, 2018, 07:26:19 AM »
Quote
-The median male wage was higher in 1969 than it is today.

Do you have a source for this?  Because from everything I have read this is false.

Indeed I do.

I originally read it in this interview with Tyler Cowen.

https://www.npr.org/2017/03/02/517915510/americas-complacent-class-how-self-segregation-is-leading-to-stagnation

Tyler Cowen mentioned this statistic and of course NPR provided a link to an article. It was a WaPo article.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2012/07/31/wages-arent-stagnating-theyre-plummeting/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.619fe1896a93

This article references the work done by Michael Greenstone and Adam Looney of the Hamilton Project.

http://www.hamiltonproject.org/assets/legacy/files/downloads_and_links/07_milken_greenstone_looney.pdf

Ah, I see where the confusion lies.
Income is positiviely correlated with education, and has been for centuries.  Since 1969, both the percentage of individuals who finished high-school and college have gone up dramatically (from ~50% to over 80% for High-school, and from around 10% to over 40% for people of all race).
It isn't that median white male salaries have decreased, it's that the median salary for white males who do not hold a college degree have not risen.
The problem - statistically speaking - is that we're not comparing the same quantile of individuals.  In 1969 this group composed ~90% of  everyone in the workforce, of which almost half hadn't completed even completed high-school (many of these were older workers born in the '20s and '30s).  By 2015 over 40% of white males between 25-29 had earned a bachelors degree, a jump of roughly 4x.  So it's comparing the bottom 90% in 1969 to the bottom 60% in 2017.  What that metric is really saying is that you can't earn as much today without a college degree as you could 50 years ago when very people had ever attended college.  That's not really surprising.  But that's a very different statement from saying "white males on average earn less than they did in 1969".

This isn't to say white males without a college degree don't feel 'left-behind' - many of them do.  But I don't see any scenario where the least educated get paid as much now as they did when not having a degree was the norm. Gains for blacks have substantial - but of course we're comparing people who entered the workforce during the 'Jim-Crow' and segregation era (where the college degree rate was nearly 0%) to today, where 27% of black people between 25-29 have a college degree.

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #25 on: November 30, 2018, 08:12:05 AM »
Would it be fair to say that these blue collar jobs just aren't coming back regardless of what Trump promises? Technology is making many of these jobs irrelevant.

Or - are is company accounting flexible enough that if factories were reopened here in the USA, top management pay lowered somewhat, shareholder payouts lowered somewhat and prices raised somewhat that they could once again afford to employ Americans?

I've heard several times in different places that the cost of labor to places like Papa Johns and McDonald's is not as high as we might think. That raising employee pay might only require reasonable price adjustments, not 200% price increases.

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #26 on: November 30, 2018, 08:17:09 AM »
I tend to agree that things arenít as good for white men as they used to be.  But things still suck by comparison for women and minorities who are mostly still behind.  Fixing the former doesnít help the latter and fixing the latter isnít an automatic fail for the former.

 Is it too much to ask we donít boil it all down to a zero sum game?

I think right wing populism hinges upon the game being a zero sum one, as opposed to the usual right wing idea that the rising tide lifts all boats.

I agree with you, I don't think there's any very compelling reason to pay any extra attention to the grievances of aging white males. However, they vote more consistently and gerrymander more cunningly so at the bare minimum it's worth understanding what has pushed them to vote for someone like Trump. And because he says tons of strange things, almost like a stream of consciousness, (Obama... the founder of ISIS... that's right, he's the founder of ISIS!) you really have to sift through the random idiocy to separate what crowds enjoy as entertainment vs what is really connecting with them.

I view it as part of democracy. We live in a nation that elected Trump. We can vote someone else in, but we can't vote 63 million people out.








J Boogie

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #27 on: November 30, 2018, 08:24:48 AM »
Would it be fair to say that these blue collar jobs just aren't coming back regardless of what Trump promises? Technology is making many of these jobs irrelevant.

Or - are is company accounting flexible enough that if factories were reopened here in the USA, top management pay lowered somewhat, shareholder payouts lowered somewhat and prices raised somewhat that they could once again afford to employ Americans?

I've heard several times in different places that the cost of labor to places like Papa Johns and McDonald's is not as high as we might think. That raising employee pay might only require reasonable price adjustments, not 200% price increases.

I think that's somewhat fair to say. It definitely is for things like coal. Coal is becoming less and less attractive as an energy source, regardless of any restrictions the EPA has enacted.

And it's fair to say that about low skill MFG jobs too. They'll never pay well again.

As far as enacting legislation to limit top pay to a certain multiplier of minimum pay, say 20x, maybe that could be done. One could argue you hamstring yourself by limiting yourself to third and fourth tier CEOs who won't do as well as companies headquartered in, say, Ireland, so that's a tough one. It's especially tough for companies that have many low skilled positions.






Aelias

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #28 on: November 30, 2018, 08:56:11 AM »
Heckuva of a lot to unpack here, but there's one piece of this that I don't think is being addressed.

The conversation thus far has been highly US focused, probably because the population of this board is majority US.  But this is not a US only phenomenon, and I think the global spread of nationalist populism is worth consideration.

Numerous countries, particularly those in Europe but also in the Philippines, India, Brazil, Turkey, etc., have been electing and consolidating power in nationalist leaders who are either outright authoritarians or, at least, show some authoritarian tendencies.  FWIW, I think Trump falls into the latter category.  Modi belongs there too, I think, though I've not followed it that closely. Orban, Erdogan, Duterte, Xi, and Putin I would classify as outright authoritarians.  Too soon to tell on Bolsonaro, though he has authoritarian tendencies for sure. Obrador in Mexico stands out as one of the sole left-leaning populists to rise to power, but has taken on a similar "strongman" ethic. 

A few threads emerge from these leaders. 

-disrespect for traditional democratic institutions, particularly surrounding the media and the rule of law.  No accountability under traditional systems of checks and balances.
-blaming a shadowy "elite" for keeping prosperity from the larger population
-scapegoating an "other" who is set up as in opposition to a true citizen.  The scapegoated group is often migrants (see Europe and the US especially), but homosexuals and religious minorities and ďleftistsĒ  have also been targets.
-Most importantly, a cult of personality around the leader, drawing on tropes of traditional masculine power - strength, uncompromising policies, inflammatory rhetoric, willingness to use force--and holding up that leader as the only one who can deliver the country for the people

Each countryís history and culture gives their version of nationalism its own unique characteristics.  But I think the broader implication is that the age of multilateral cooperation between nations may be coming to an end.  If thereís anything that could be called a Trump Doctrine, it seems to be a focus on bilateral agreements and relationships where each side is trying to maximize benefits to their citizenry, regardless of how it effects the citizens of any other country.  Itís highly transactional, and I sort of get the appeal of ďIím going to do whatís best for my people, and Iím going to assume youíll do whatís best for yours, and weíll see who wins at the end of the day.Ē  But it doesnít make room for long term negotiations where trust becomes an important factor.  And it strikes me as a really bad way to solve complex global problems.  And at this point, all our problems are complex and global!

As to what itís highlighted? I think the clearest thing for me is that our education systems are failing a large number of people, and with the proliferation of information on the internet, many people (even highly educated ones) are struggling to differentiate useful facts from propaganda, half-truths, and manipulation.  It used to be authoritarians had to suppress a free press.  Now they just have to let actual facts drown in misinformation.  Most people shrug, and because they don't know who to trust, they trust only those who appeal to their preconceived ideas.

TL / DR:  Itís not just the US.  Itís everywhere.  And itís not good. 




J Boogie

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #29 on: November 30, 2018, 12:25:24 PM »
Heckuva of a lot to unpack here, but there's one piece of this that I don't think is being addressed.

The conversation thus far has been highly US focused, probably because the population of this board is majority US.  But this is not a US only phenomenon, and I think the global spread of nationalist populism is worth consideration.

Numerous countries, particularly those in Europe but also in the Philippines, India, Brazil, Turkey, etc., have been electing and consolidating power in nationalist leaders who are either outright authoritarians or, at least, show some authoritarian tendencies.  FWIW, I think Trump falls into the latter category.  Modi belongs there too, I think, though I've not followed it that closely. Orban, Erdogan, Duterte, Xi, and Putin I would classify as outright authoritarians.  Too soon to tell on Bolsonaro, though he has authoritarian tendencies for sure. Obrador in Mexico stands out as one of the sole left-leaning populists to rise to power, but has taken on a similar "strongman" ethic. 

A few threads emerge from these leaders. 

-disrespect for traditional democratic institutions, particularly surrounding the media and the rule of law.  No accountability under traditional systems of checks and balances.
-blaming a shadowy "elite" for keeping prosperity from the larger population
-scapegoating an "other" who is set up as in opposition to a true citizen.  The scapegoated group is often migrants (see Europe and the US especially), but homosexuals and religious minorities and ďleftistsĒ  have also been targets.
-Most importantly, a cult of personality around the leader, drawing on tropes of traditional masculine power - strength, uncompromising policies, inflammatory rhetoric, willingness to use force--and holding up that leader as the only one who can deliver the country for the people

Each countryís history and culture gives their version of nationalism its own unique characteristics.  But I think the broader implication is that the age of multilateral cooperation between nations may be coming to an end.  If thereís anything that could be called a Trump Doctrine, it seems to be a focus on bilateral agreements and relationships where each side is trying to maximize benefits to their citizenry, regardless of how it effects the citizens of any other country.  Itís highly transactional, and I sort of get the appeal of ďIím going to do whatís best for my people, and Iím going to assume youíll do whatís best for yours, and weíll see who wins at the end of the day.Ē  But it doesnít make room for long term negotiations where trust becomes an important factor.  And it strikes me as a really bad way to solve complex global problems.  And at this point, all our problems are complex and global!

As to what itís highlighted? I think the clearest thing for me is that our education systems are failing a large number of people, and with the proliferation of information on the internet, many people (even highly educated ones) are struggling to differentiate useful facts from propaganda, half-truths, and manipulation.  It used to be authoritarians had to suppress a free press.  Now they just have to let actual facts drown in misinformation.  Most people shrug, and because they don't know who to trust, they trust only those who appeal to their preconceived ideas.

TL / DR:  Itís not just the US.  Itís everywhere.  And itís not good.

Good points.

Is there anything intrinsic to populism that lends itself to authoritarianism?

Is it just because they're so upset and pessimistic they want someone who doesn't play by the rules, since the game is rigged anyways?

Or is it just because the people that are willing and able to court populists tend to be this way?



shenlong55

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #30 on: November 30, 2018, 12:32:36 PM »
I agree that feelings and perception are real and should be taken into account and if anyone feels like they are being left behind then I want to help them out as much as possible right up to the point where they start demanding that the only possible way for me to help them is to hurt someone else. That's when they become the bad guy.

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #31 on: November 30, 2018, 12:51:07 PM »
Hatredof the other by ignorant people is not new. Itís been justified even toward Americans.

http://rudepundit.blogspot.com/2018/11/there-are-always-migrants-theyve-always.html

It's definitely now new, that's for sure.

If we were looking for a reason as to why, I guess the answer you could mine looking back at the great depression and great recession would be simple - When there's not enough to go around (or it feels like there's not enough to go around, or plenty is going around, but not enough is coming your way), people become tribal. More for us, nothing for them.

But given the way it's playing out across the globe, I think there's way more to take away from this phenomenon than simply that some ignorant people will always hate those who are different.

I think the reason we've seen a great rise in right wing vs left wing populism is because the G7 countries have largely been associated with more center-left politics. Even true progressives end up going with the Hillaries of the world because they're already somewhat winning and don't want to risk losing their corporatist-center left rule just because they can't have Bernie and E. Warren.

Also, maybe they do regard Bernie's policies as financially unrealistic.




carolina822

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #32 on: December 01, 2018, 03:26:51 PM »
Only that I find it discouraging that response seems to be digging in heels, and pretending/asserting all the reasons are illegitimate.
Here, I think a lot of the reason Trump was elected was as a 'FU' to the establishment(media,politicians, etc.). Rather than trying to understand and work together on those concerns, it seems the narrative is just to assert they're all wrong/ignorant/deplorable and shout louder.

When your "FU" to the establishment is voting for a trust fund baby who lives in a 14k gold penthouse in New York City, I think the wrong/ignorant/deplorable label fits.

GuitarStv

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #33 on: December 01, 2018, 05:03:16 PM »
Only that I find it discouraging that response seems to be digging in heels, and pretending/asserting all the reasons are illegitimate.
Here, I think a lot of the reason Trump was elected was as a 'FU' to the establishment(media,politicians, etc.). Rather than trying to understand and work together on those concerns, it seems the narrative is just to assert they're all wrong/ignorant/deplorable and shout louder.

When your "FU" to the establishment is voting for a trust fund baby who lives in a 14k gold penthouse in New York City, I think the wrong/ignorant/deplorable label fits.

Ignorant, no.

It's not an FU to the establishment.  It's an FU to the entire country.  It's a way to spit in the face of everyone who has come before and tried to build something better.  It's a glorification of ruination, a mean spirited attempt to hurt and reduce better people, an attempt to drag everyone down to the mud, and a repudiation of any and everything of value . . . because of anger that they didn't get a big enough piece of the pie they didn't earn.

Fuck you, I didn't get mine so everyone else should suffer.  Deplorable yes, but ignorant?  No, it's not ignorance but a choice.

J Boogie

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #34 on: December 03, 2018, 09:14:00 AM »
Only that I find it discouraging that response seems to be digging in heels, and pretending/asserting all the reasons are illegitimate.
Here, I think a lot of the reason Trump was elected was as a 'FU' to the establishment(media,politicians, etc.). Rather than trying to understand and work together on those concerns, it seems the narrative is just to assert they're all wrong/ignorant/deplorable and shout louder.

When your "FU" to the establishment is voting for a trust fund baby who lives in a 14k gold penthouse in New York City, I think the wrong/ignorant/deplorable label fits.

I think the attraction there is that Trump seems like the kind of person who is rich and powerful enough to be immune to the lobbying and establishment pressure that cause other politicians to walk back their campaign promises.

Whether or not Trump is immune to lobbying/corruption isn't really the point. He effectively marketed himself as such, and it's not a crazy thing to assume since he routinely bucked GOP norms (insulting POW vets like McCain, etc) and didn't receive campaign contributions from the usual big GOP donors like Koch.




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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #35 on: December 05, 2018, 06:25:18 PM »
I tend to agree that things arenít as good for white men as they used to be.  But things still suck by comparison for women and minorities who are mostly still behind.  Fixing the former doesnít help the latter and fixing the latter isnít an automatic fail for the former.

 Is it too much to ask we donít boil it all down to a zero sum game?

I think right wing populism hinges upon the game being a zero sum one, as opposed to the usual right wing idea that the rising tide lifts all boats.

I agree with you, I don't think there's any very compelling reason to pay any extra attention to the grievances of aging white males. However, they vote more consistently and gerrymander more cunningly so at the bare minimum it's worth understanding what has pushed them to vote for someone like Trump. And because he says tons of strange things, almost like a stream of consciousness, (Obama... the founder of ISIS... that's right, he's the founder of ISIS!) you really have to sift through the random idiocy to separate what crowds enjoy as entertainment vs what is really connecting with them.

I view it as part of democracy. We live in a nation that elected Trump. We can vote someone else in, but we can't vote 63 million people out.

Ha, we can't even get 20+ million illegals out or keep more illegals from coming in.

Just think, it could have been worse.  We could have had hillary after having endured obama for 8 years.

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #36 on: December 05, 2018, 06:42:31 PM »
I tend to agree that things arenít as good for white men as they used to be.  But things still suck by comparison for women and minorities who are mostly still behind.  Fixing the former doesnít help the latter and fixing the latter isnít an automatic fail for the former.

 Is it too much to ask we donít boil it all down to a zero sum game?

I think right wing populism hinges upon the game being a zero sum one, as opposed to the usual right wing idea that the rising tide lifts all boats.

I agree with you, I don't think there's any very compelling reason to pay any extra attention to the grievances of aging white males. However, they vote more consistently and gerrymander more cunningly so at the bare minimum it's worth understanding what has pushed them to vote for someone like Trump. And because he says tons of strange things, almost like a stream of consciousness, (Obama... the founder of ISIS... that's right, he's the founder of ISIS!) you really have to sift through the random idiocy to separate what crowds enjoy as entertainment vs what is really connecting with them.

I view it as part of democracy. We live in a nation that elected Trump. We can vote someone else in, but we can't vote 63 million people out.

Ha, we can't even get 20+ million illegals out or keep more illegals from coming in.

Just think, it could have been worse.  We could have had hillary after having endured obama for 8 years.

Obama's the reason for all the immigrants of course.  "He doesn't have a birth certificate, or if he does, there's something on that certificate that is very bad for him. Now, somebody told me -- and I have no idea if this is bad for him or not, but perhaps it would be -- that where it says 'religion,' it might have 'Muslim.' And if you're a Muslim, you don't change your religion, by the way."  Obama was the first secret Kenyan Muslim president of the United States.  Of course immigrants are charging in.  They can all be president now.

Hilary?  Yeah . . . totally would have been a disaster.  After all, "There was collusion between Hillary, the Democrats and Russia.  There was a lot of collusion with them and Russia and lots of other people."  Can you imagine how bad it would be if the person in the White House had some kind of ties to Russia?  Inconceivable!

J Boogie

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #37 on: December 06, 2018, 07:43:10 AM »
I tend to agree that things arenít as good for white men as they used to be.  But things still suck by comparison for women and minorities who are mostly still behind.  Fixing the former doesnít help the latter and fixing the latter isnít an automatic fail for the former.

 Is it too much to ask we donít boil it all down to a zero sum game?

I think right wing populism hinges upon the game being a zero sum one, as opposed to the usual right wing idea that the rising tide lifts all boats.

I agree with you, I don't think there's any very compelling reason to pay any extra attention to the grievances of aging white males. However, they vote more consistently and gerrymander more cunningly so at the bare minimum it's worth understanding what has pushed them to vote for someone like Trump. And because he says tons of strange things, almost like a stream of consciousness, (Obama... the founder of ISIS... that's right, he's the founder of ISIS!) you really have to sift through the random idiocy to separate what crowds enjoy as entertainment vs what is really connecting with them.

I view it as part of democracy. We live in a nation that elected Trump. We can vote someone else in, but we can't vote 63 million people out.

Ha, we can't even get 20+ million illegals out or keep more illegals from coming in.

Just think, it could have been worse.  We could have had hillary after having endured obama for 8 years.

I actually do think it could have been worse too with Hillary. Not because she'd be a worse president, but because Trump and his supporters wouldn't have gone away. Who knows how much airtime Trump would still be getting. They'd be the ones "resisting" and most would be convinced that the election process is completely rigged.

Faith in democracy would be at an alarming low and we would have essentially put off popping the biggest pimple in the past 100 years, only to let this sentiment fester and grow stronger.

The best case scenario now is that maybe people will realize that Trump isn't very interested or effective when it comes to enacting populist agendas and look for a more democracy friendly populist candidate. It's not particularly likely as cult of personality tends to be extremely common with populist leaders, especially when they have boogeyman they can rally their supporters against.

The things populists (both left and right) are upset about aren't going away. Those of us with healthy 401ks who are doing just fine the current system ignore this at our own peril. Until the country works well for everyone (especially the ones who vote more frequently and in states where their vote is 2-10x more significant), we'll have narcissistic fools in office.

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #38 on: December 06, 2018, 07:59:39 AM »
I actually do think it could have been worse too with Hillary. Not because she'd be a worse president, but because Trump and his supporters wouldn't have gone away. Who knows how much airtime Trump would still be getting. They'd be the ones "resisting" and most would be convinced that the election process is completely rigged.

Faith in democracy would be at an alarming low and we would have essentially put off popping the biggest pimple in the past 100 years, only to let this sentiment fester and grow stronger.

The best case scenario now is that maybe people will realize that Trump isn't very interested or effective when it comes to enacting populist agendas and look for a more democracy friendly populist candidate. It's not particularly likely as cult of personality tends to be extremely common with populist leaders, especially when they have boogeyman they can rally their supporters against.

The things populists (both left and right) are upset about aren't going away. Those of us with healthy 401ks who are doing just fine the current system ignore this at our own peril. Until the country works well for everyone (especially the ones who vote more frequently and in states where their vote is 2-10x more significant), we'll have narcissistic fools in office.

I've come to believe that this was Trump's intention all along - to get mountains of media exposure for being the GOP presidential candidate, lose, and then spend his days arm-chair quarterbacking HRC's administration.  Only it backfired, and now he's facing a level of scrutiny with his business and personal dealings he's never had to contend with before.

It's much easier to blame than lead. Rush Limbaugh had his best years during the Clinton and Obama years - when 'W' was president his ranting over the democrats in congress was a bit dull. Ann Coulter rose to fame during Obama, but is largely irrelevant now.

bwall

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #39 on: December 06, 2018, 08:20:04 AM »
Quote
-The median male wage was higher in 1969 than it is today.

Do you have a source for this?  Because from everything I have read this is false.

False comparison of wages from 50 years ago to today.

In 1969 the richest men ("The Elite") in the USA did not have:

Cell phone, personal computer (desktop, laptop or tablet), internet, VCR, cable television, microwave oven, video camera (let alone video conferencing or streaming), answering machine, calculator (!) not to mention the incremental improvement in automobile safety, workplace safety, televised live sports and second hand smoke. I'm sure I'm leaving a lot out as I just composed this list in a couple of minutes.

So, today's average American can enjoy all these things that were unavailable to even the richest man in the world 50 years ago. Why, I bet that even most (all?) of today's underpaid males enjoys all these things that were unobtainable to the 1960's "Elite", and more.


nereo

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #40 on: December 06, 2018, 08:31:06 AM »
Quote
-The median male wage was higher in 1969 than it is today.

Do you have a source for this?  Because from everything I have read this is false.

False comparison of wages from 50 years ago to today.

In 1969 the richest men ("The Elite") in the USA did not have:

Cell phone, personal computer (desktop, laptop or tablet), internet, VCR, cable television, microwave oven, video camera (let alone video conferencing or streaming), answering machine, calculator (!) not to mention the incremental improvement in automobile safety, workplace safety, televised live sports and second hand smoke. I'm sure I'm leaving a lot out as I just composed this list in a couple of minutes.

So, today's average American can enjoy all these things that were unavailable to even the richest man in the world 50 years ago. Why, I bet that even most (all?) of today's underpaid males enjoys all these things that were unobtainable to the 1960's "Elite", and more.

This is all true.  However, as discussed above, what was being compared wasn't actually 'median wages of white males' but 'median wages of white males without a degree'.  Those are two very different things, particularly given the increase in educations across all demographics in the last 50 years.
Comparing wages also ignores benefits and services, including medicaid and SNAP, which covers more of this demographic than it did in 1969.  Apples and oranges...

J Boogie

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #41 on: December 06, 2018, 09:16:45 AM »
Quote
-The median male wage was higher in 1969 than it is today.

Do you have a source for this?  Because from everything I have read this is false.

False comparison of wages from 50 years ago to today.

In 1969 the richest men ("The Elite") in the USA did not have:

Cell phone, personal computer (desktop, laptop or tablet), internet, VCR, cable television, microwave oven, video camera (let alone video conferencing or streaming), answering machine, calculator (!) not to mention the incremental improvement in automobile safety, workplace safety, televised live sports and second hand smoke. I'm sure I'm leaving a lot out as I just composed this list in a couple of minutes.

So, today's average American can enjoy all these things that were unavailable to even the richest man in the world 50 years ago. Why, I bet that even most (all?) of today's underpaid males enjoys all these things that were unobtainable to the 1960's "Elite", and more.

This is all true.  However, as discussed above, what was being compared wasn't actually 'median wages of white males' but 'median wages of white males without a degree'.  Those are two very different things, particularly given the increase in educations across all demographics in the last 50 years.
Comparing wages also ignores benefits and services, including medicaid and SNAP, which covers more of this demographic than it did in 1969.  Apples and oranges...

Again, Newt Gingrich. Things have gotten better for everyone overall with those improvements you mentioned, but uneducated white men are FEELING that things used to be far better for them. And they're not exactly wrong, in an economic sense.

I think the problem is that they mistook a brief window of time, an anomaly, where an uneducated person would do well, for a what should be the norm. It's easy to get lulled into a false sense of security when things are good and neglect to develop the resiliency and adaptability you'll need when they aren't so good anymore.

It just so happened that time was right after WWII, when every other major industrialized nation was leveled after the war and we were relatively fine - so business was booming for our factories while others recovered and bought from us since ours were up and running.


trollwithamustache

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #42 on: December 06, 2018, 09:37:15 AM »
The more attention the media gives these yahoos the more appeal the oddball attention seekers will have for these righwing groups.  In the 70s leftwing enviro groups were waaaay cooler than they are now.

Shave that head and get your 15 minutes of fame! Blow up a whaling ship and go to jail as a terrorist.

nereo

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #43 on: December 06, 2018, 09:43:56 AM »
Quote
-The median male wage was higher in 1969 than it is today.

Do you have a source for this?  Because from everything I have read this is false.

False comparison of wages from 50 years ago to today.

In 1969 the richest men ("The Elite") in the USA did not have:

Cell phone, personal computer (desktop, laptop or tablet), internet, VCR, cable television, microwave oven, video camera (let alone video conferencing or streaming), answering machine, calculator (!) not to mention the incremental improvement in automobile safety, workplace safety, televised live sports and second hand smoke. I'm sure I'm leaving a lot out as I just composed this list in a couple of minutes.

So, today's average American can enjoy all these things that were unavailable to even the richest man in the world 50 years ago. Why, I bet that even most (all?) of today's underpaid males enjoys all these things that were unobtainable to the 1960's "Elite", and more.

This is all true.  However, as discussed above, what was being compared wasn't actually 'median wages of white males' but 'median wages of white males without a degree'.  Those are two very different things, particularly given the increase in educations across all demographics in the last 50 years.
Comparing wages also ignores benefits and services, including medicaid and SNAP, which covers more of this demographic than it did in 1969.  Apples and oranges...

Again, Newt Gingrich. Things have gotten better for everyone overall with those improvements you mentioned, but uneducated white men are FEELING that things used to be far better for them. And they're not exactly wrong, in an economic sense.

I think the problem is that they mistook a brief window of time, an anomaly, where an uneducated person would do well, for a what should be the norm. It's easy to get lulled into a false sense of security when things are good and neglect to develop the resiliency and adaptability you'll need when they aren't so good anymore.

It just so happened that time was right after WWII, when every other major industrialized nation was leveled after the war and we were relatively fine - so business was booming for our factories while others recovered and bought from us since ours were up and running.

Absolutely.  You have no argument from me - it's uneducated white men FEELING like things used to be better for them.  It's just that the reality doesn't match their perception.  And I think that's at the core of the populism movement, and its biggest problem. Newt certainly furthered and exploited this perception in his rise to speaker (ironic, for a rich white privleged male).

In that regard and to take us back to the topic thread - the issue this populism most highlighted is that people's expectations and their understanding of previous generations does not match reality.  When everyone improves but those who were among the worst off (e.g. black people) improve the most, an easily swallowed perception is that white people are somehow 'falling behind' . The problem with this line of thinking is that this isn't a race with a single winner (it's not a 'zero-sum game').  The rise of some doesn't require the fall of others, and in absolute terms white males on average are better off now than they were a generation or two ago. Likewise the emergence of Japan and China and Korea as developed nations doesn't mean the US is any less developed.  It's just not a club of one like it was in the 1950s and 60s. Similarly both illegal and legal immigration into the US is at decadal lows, yet anti immigrant sentiment has spiked under 'populism'.

All of which is a long-winded way of saying that populism is great at creating false demons.

Kris

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #44 on: December 06, 2018, 10:06:34 AM »
Quote
-The median male wage was higher in 1969 than it is today.

Do you have a source for this?  Because from everything I have read this is false.

False comparison of wages from 50 years ago to today.

In 1969 the richest men ("The Elite") in the USA did not have:

Cell phone, personal computer (desktop, laptop or tablet), internet, VCR, cable television, microwave oven, video camera (let alone video conferencing or streaming), answering machine, calculator (!) not to mention the incremental improvement in automobile safety, workplace safety, televised live sports and second hand smoke. I'm sure I'm leaving a lot out as I just composed this list in a couple of minutes.

So, today's average American can enjoy all these things that were unavailable to even the richest man in the world 50 years ago. Why, I bet that even most (all?) of today's underpaid males enjoys all these things that were unobtainable to the 1960's "Elite", and more.

This is all true.  However, as discussed above, what was being compared wasn't actually 'median wages of white males' but 'median wages of white males without a degree'.  Those are two very different things, particularly given the increase in educations across all demographics in the last 50 years.
Comparing wages also ignores benefits and services, including medicaid and SNAP, which covers more of this demographic than it did in 1969.  Apples and oranges...

Again, Newt Gingrich. Things have gotten better for everyone overall with those improvements you mentioned, but uneducated white men are FEELING that things used to be far better for them. And they're not exactly wrong, in an economic sense.

I think the problem is that they mistook a brief window of time, an anomaly, where an uneducated person would do well, for a what should be the norm. It's easy to get lulled into a false sense of security when things are good and neglect to develop the resiliency and adaptability you'll need when they aren't so good anymore.

It just so happened that time was right after WWII, when every other major industrialized nation was leveled after the war and we were relatively fine - so business was booming for our factories while others recovered and bought from us since ours were up and running.

Absolutely.  You have no argument from me - it's uneducated white men FEELING like things used to be better for them. It's just that the reality doesn't match their perception. 

Exactly. And they feel like things used to be better for them because it used to be, they were the only ones who had access to a lot of stuff that now women and minorities have access to, too.

bwall

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #45 on: December 06, 2018, 10:21:25 AM »
Likewise the emergence of Japan and China and Korea as developed nations doesn't mean the US is any less developed.  It's just not a club of one like it was in the 1950s and 60s.

The rise of China has helped me greatly in my FIRE journey. For the past few years we sell exclusively to China and business has never been better.

koshtra

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Re: What issues has nationalist populism identified or at least highlighted?
« Reply #46 on: December 06, 2018, 10:42:41 AM »
People evaluate their well-being compared to what they *expected* to have, and compared to what other people have. If you spend your life watching 20-percenters consuming boatloads of shit on TV and think that's normal, your supposed poverty is going to rankle, even if your economic situation is actually better than your parents' was.

When you believe that consuming more is the only way to be happier, and you see that you have no short-term prospect of consuming more, you're going to feel cheated out of a real life: and anyone with a story about how you got cheated is going to have an easy time selling it.