Author Topic: Will work for free  (Read 2079 times)

blackjack

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Will work for free
« on: November 22, 2013, 06:52:19 AM »
A documentary talking about how millions and millions of jobs will become obsolete due to technology...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0SuGRgdJA_c

footenote

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Re: Will work for free
« Reply #1 on: November 22, 2013, 06:55:35 AM »
It's always darkest before it dawns on you

arebelspy

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Re: Will work for free
« Reply #2 on: November 22, 2013, 07:53:50 AM »
You may find Kevin Drum's take on automation interesting:

http://www.motherjones.com/media/2013/05/robots-artificial-intelligence-jobs-automation

Quite interesting.  I enjoyed the Lake Michigan analogy, and some interesting predictions on pg 2.

Thanks for sharing.
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gimp

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Re: Will work for free
« Reply #3 on: November 22, 2013, 06:01:21 PM »
Creative Destruction is a very powerful thing, and if you're in the Destruction part of the equation it may be painful for a while.

I do like his analogy in the article, but I want to make one correction. This is a widely spread myth about Moore's law. Here are the facts:

- Doubling occurs approximately every two years, not 1.5 years
- What doubles is the amount of transistors you can inexpensively manufacture on the same area, NOT COMPUTING POWER

In fact, every two years we roughly double density, but we only increase computational power 40%.

This is important because it changes his timeframe a bit.

Oh, by the way, hardware is useless without software. Remember the phrase "What Andy giveth, Bill taketh away?" We're getting to the point where new software on client machines (laptop/desktop) often runs faster, or requires fewer resources, on the same exact hardware. (Phones and tablets are obviously not there yet). The big requirements for more computation are in the server land; servers, datacenters, storage, analytics, etc etc etc. That all trickles down to client eventually, but there's a delay of nearly a decade between what happens in servers and what happens in your pocket.

Ian

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Re: Will work for free
« Reply #4 on: November 23, 2013, 11:47:48 PM »
This is one of the big trends I wonder about (along with the environment and energy). Even if the optimists are right and this just represents a shift in job types, I'm not sure things are moving in a sustainable direction: not everyone is going to be aan engineer.

There's also the idea that this trend has been masked by the creation of lots of basically useless jobs. I don't have a good link for it, but in Stiffed several chapters discuss how millions of jobs (mostly supervision and management) were created out of nothing, not in response to any need except employment. That system eventually crashed, leading to mass layoffs. When I look at some of our institutions today I can't help but think there are similar phenomena at play and with the right societal changes, millions more jobs could disappear. If some major sectors are even partially automated, it's difficult to see how the world would compensate.

StarswirlTheMustached

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Re: Will work for free
« Reply #5 on: December 13, 2013, 08:19:55 AM »
Oh, by the way, hardware is useless without software. Remember the phrase "What Andy giveth, Bill taketh away?" We're getting to the point where new software on client machines (laptop/desktop) often runs faster, or requires fewer resources, on the same exact hardware. (Phones and tablets are obviously not there yet). The big requirements for more computation are in the server land; servers, datacenters, storage, analytics, etc etc etc. That all trickles down to client eventually, but there's a delay of nearly a decade between what happens in servers and what happens in your pocket.
Isn't that just offshoring the computation to servers? From what I can tell, from my very inexpert position, everything seems to take more computing power than it did of yore. Ye olde Bloat.

vern

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Re: Will work for free
« Reply #6 on: December 13, 2013, 08:54:07 PM »
"Of my fifty-seven years I have applied at least thirty to forgetting most of what I had learned or read, and since I succeeded in this I have acquired a certain ease and cheer which I should never again like to be without."  World Chess Champion Emanuel Lasker