Author Topic: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?  (Read 386571 times)

Kris

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3356
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2900 on: April 09, 2017, 02:24:11 PM »
Long after my mom left (escaped?) the USSR she would read Pravda newspaper because she wanted to remind herself why she left. I'm not sure anyone actually took Pravda seriously (let alone literally!) and Xinhua is probably no different. None of this talk about Syria is about the Syrian actions anyway: China has close to zero strategic interest there. It's about maneuvering for credible leverage in east Asia.

Show me some kind of evidence, or even someone putting forth an argument, that dropping missiles on that airbase accomplished any kind of military goal. Scoring political points by making stuff go boom is fucking stupid.
As stated before, there was not a military goal involved in the operation. This was a signal that redefined US foreign policy commitments far beyond Syria. It's ridiculous in a way, yes, but compared to tomahawk missiles, talk is cheap (especially if the talk consists of gold-plated shit, i.e. Trump tweets).

So, you see nothing at all significant in the fact that the state-run news agency of China made a point of saying something so contemptuous and mocking of the US president literally hours after China's leader was here for an official visit?

Personally, I'm damn sick of our leader being a goddamn international embarrassment. He makes us look like fools. And I wouldn't mind so much, except that what the Chinese news agency published is absolutely true.
« Last Edit: April 09, 2017, 02:27:01 PM by Kris »

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 842
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2901 on: April 09, 2017, 07:31:56 PM »
Long after my mom left (escaped?) the USSR she would read Pravda newspaper because she wanted to remind herself why she left. I'm not sure anyone actually took Pravda seriously (let alone literally!) and Xinhua is probably no different. None of this talk about Syria is about the Syrian actions anyway: China has close to zero strategic interest there. It's about maneuvering for credible leverage in east Asia.

Show me some kind of evidence, or even someone putting forth an argument, that dropping missiles on that airbase accomplished any kind of military goal. Scoring political points by making stuff go boom is fucking stupid.
As stated before, there was not a military goal involved in the operation. This was a signal that redefined US foreign policy commitments far beyond Syria. It's ridiculous in a way, yes, but compared to tomahawk missiles, talk is cheap (especially if the talk consists of gold-plated shit, i.e. Trump tweets).

So, you see nothing at all significant in the fact that the state-run news agency of China made a point of saying something so contemptuous and mocking of the US president literally hours after China's leader was here for an official visit?

Personally, I'm damn sick of our leader being a goddamn international embarrassment. He makes us look like fools. And I wouldn't mind so much, except that what the Chinese news agency published is absolutely true.
I don't believe that foreign policy should be guided by how it will be described within a Chinese propaganda rag. Does Xi Jinping worry about how he is portrayed in Rush Limbaugh rants?

One has to distinguish between Trump looking the fool and US policy being in error. Trump demonstrates his inadequacy every time he hammers out 140 characters with his tiny hands, but fortunately for us, he hasn't drained the swamp and is up to his double-chin in deep state informing and shaping his actions.

And if your criticism of Trump is to any extent informed by your participation in a rival political tribe, the Syrian intervention is a bit of a victory since it is a drastic departure from a core element of his platform: "America-First" non-interventionism. If you listen very carefully, you can already hear the Claremonsters and other pseudo-intellectual bottom feeders crying out to the gods in confusion. If the world is going to burn, at least we can enjoy it with a side of schadenfreude?

Kris

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3356
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2902 on: April 10, 2017, 07:22:17 AM »
Long after my mom left (escaped?) the USSR she would read Pravda newspaper because she wanted to remind herself why she left. I'm not sure anyone actually took Pravda seriously (let alone literally!) and Xinhua is probably no different. None of this talk about Syria is about the Syrian actions anyway: China has close to zero strategic interest there. It's about maneuvering for credible leverage in east Asia.

Show me some kind of evidence, or even someone putting forth an argument, that dropping missiles on that airbase accomplished any kind of military goal. Scoring political points by making stuff go boom is fucking stupid.
As stated before, there was not a military goal involved in the operation. This was a signal that redefined US foreign policy commitments far beyond Syria. It's ridiculous in a way, yes, but compared to tomahawk missiles, talk is cheap (especially if the talk consists of gold-plated shit, i.e. Trump tweets).

So, you see nothing at all significant in the fact that the state-run news agency of China made a point of saying something so contemptuous and mocking of the US president literally hours after China's leader was here for an official visit?

Personally, I'm damn sick of our leader being a goddamn international embarrassment. He makes us look like fools. And I wouldn't mind so much, except that what the Chinese news agency published is absolutely true.
I don't believe that foreign policy should be guided by how it will be described within a Chinese propaganda rag. Does Xi Jinping worry about how he is portrayed in Rush Limbaugh rants?

One has to distinguish between Trump looking the fool and US policy being in error. Trump demonstrates his inadequacy every time he hammers out 140 characters with his tiny hands, but fortunately for us, he hasn't drained the swamp and is up to his double-chin in deep state informing and shaping his actions.

And if your criticism of Trump is to any extent informed by your participation in a rival political tribe, the Syrian intervention is a bit of a victory since it is a drastic departure from a core element of his platform: "America-First" non-interventionism. If you listen very carefully, you can already hear the Claremonsters and other pseudo-intellectual bottom feeders crying out to the gods in confusion. If the world is going to burn, at least we can enjoy it with a side of schadenfreude?

Psh. It was a publicity stunt. It's wildly exaggerating to call this anything like a "departure" from anything. If you're enjoying this merely because people who piss you off are pissed off by it, then that's your prerogative, I guess.

Gondolin

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 533
  • Location: Northern VA
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2903 on: April 10, 2017, 08:56:45 AM »
Quote
Scoring political points by making stuff go boom is fucking stupid.

This may offend your keen sense of warrior honor yet, it has been a useful mainstay of political action literally since the day the first sword was forged.

Quote
So, you see nothing at all significant in the fact that the state-run news agency of China made a point of saying something so contemptuous and mocking of the US president literally hours after China's leader was here for an official visit?

Kris, no. It's not significant at all. Sure, Trump is a dangerous embarrassment and mocking him is like shooting fish in a barrel. BUT, Chinese state outlets would be trumpeting this meeting as a victory for Xi no matter who was in the White House. China has significant domestic problems and significant international ambitions which only partly overlap with any US interests. State outlets have a vested duty to help prop up the regime - Jesus Christ could be President and Chinese propaganda outlets would still be barking about how God's Son is spineless coward who can't stand up to a real man like Xi.

The US wields a disproportionate influence in global politics but, not *everything* that other countries do is:
A) related to that country's relationship with the US
B) an accurate reflection of any international relationship


former player

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3658
  • Location: Avalon
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2904 on: April 10, 2017, 09:15:31 AM »
Quote
Scoring political points by making stuff go boom is fucking stupid.

This may offend your keen sense of warrior honor yet, it has been a useful mainstay of political action literally since the day the first sword was forged.

Quote
So, you see nothing at all significant in the fact that the state-run news agency of China made a point of saying something so contemptuous and mocking of the US president literally hours after China's leader was here for an official visit?

Kris, no. It's not significant at all. Sure, Trump is a dangerous embarrassment and mocking him is like shooting fish in a barrel. BUT, Chinese state outlets would be trumpeting this meeting as a victory for Xi no matter who was in the White House. China has significant domestic problems and significant international ambitions which only partly overlap with any US interests. State outlets have a vested duty to help prop up the regime - Jesus Christ could be President and Chinese propaganda outlets would still be barking about how God's Son is spineless coward who can't stand up to a real man like Xi.

The US wields a disproportionate influence in global politics but, not *everything* that other countries do is:
A) related to that country's relationship with the US
B) an accurate reflection of any international relationship
I think we've all had a recent demonstration that propaganda works: it changes people's attitudes and actions.  It matters.

Kris

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3356
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2905 on: April 10, 2017, 09:35:41 AM »

The US wields a disproportionate influence in global politics but, not *everything* that other countries do is:
A) related to that country's relationship with the US
B) an accurate reflection of any international relationship

This is true. And I wasn't arguing the contrary, either in general or in this particular case.

I would guess that you would also say the ways other countries talk in their official statements about this particular American president aren't really important. And in that, you and I will have to agree to disagree.

OurTown

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 960
  • Age: 49
  • Location: Tennessee

Gondolin

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 533
  • Location: Northern VA
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2907 on: April 10, 2017, 10:18:53 AM »
Quote
I think we've all had a recent demonstration that propaganda works: it changes people's attitudes and actions.  It matters.

I wasn't arguing about the efficacy of propaganda. Your statement is quite correct. Rather, the question was, should we care about the effect of foreign propaganda on foreign populations as a barometer for the likely policy stances of the government producing that propaganda.

Quote
I would guess that you would also say the ways other countries talk in their official statements about this particular American president aren't really important.

I would argue that when it comes to "other country's talk", not all countries are created equally. To my mind, the German election of Steinmeier, Tusk's comments, and various criticisms from the French, German, UK, Austrian (et. al.) governments are far more 'significant' (mostly because they were honest off-the-cuff commentary) than highly censored press clippings coming from a Beijing government with obvious reasons to denigrate the US regardless of who is in the White House. If you don't think that piece was written, vetted, and ready to print before Xi ever got on the plane...


Kris

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3356
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2908 on: April 10, 2017, 12:35:37 PM »
Quote
I think we've all had a recent demonstration that propaganda works: it changes people's attitudes and actions.  It matters.

I wasn't arguing about the efficacy of propaganda. Your statement is quite correct. Rather, the question was, should we care about the effect of foreign propaganda on foreign populations as a barometer for the likely policy stances of the government producing that propaganda.

Quote
I would guess that you would also say the ways other countries talk in their official statements about this particular American president aren't really important.

I would argue that when it comes to "other country's talk", not all countries are created equally. To my mind, the German election of Steinmeier, Tusk's comments, and various criticisms from the French, German, UK, Austrian (et. al.) governments are far more 'significant' (mostly because they were honest off-the-cuff commentary) than highly censored press clippings coming from a Beijing government with obvious reasons to denigrate the US regardless of who is in the White House. If you don't think that piece was written, vetted, and ready to print before Xi ever got on the plane...

Of course it was.

Glenstache

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2037
  • Age: 186
  • Location: Seattle!
  • Target FI date 2027 (maybe?)
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2909 on: April 10, 2017, 02:36:41 PM »
Quote
I think we've all had a recent demonstration that propaganda works: it changes people's attitudes and actions.  It matters.

I wasn't arguing about the efficacy of propaganda. Your statement is quite correct. Rather, the question was, should we care about the effect of foreign propaganda on foreign populations as a barometer for the likely policy stances of the government producing that propaganda.

Quote
I would guess that you would also say the ways other countries talk in their official statements about this particular American president aren't really important.

I would argue that when it comes to "other country's talk", not all countries are created equally. To my mind, the German election of Steinmeier, Tusk's comments, and various criticisms from the French, German, UK, Austrian (et. al.) governments are far more 'significant' (mostly because they were honest off-the-cuff commentary) than highly censored press clippings coming from a Beijing government with obvious reasons to denigrate the US regardless of who is in the White House. If you don't think that piece was written, vetted, and ready to print before Xi ever got on the plane...

Of course it was.

I hear they even wrote the part about the Syria air strikes before it happened!

MasterStache

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1711
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2910 on: April 11, 2017, 06:30:56 AM »
So what's the over/under on Chump going to war with NK? Gawd I don't miss having Republicans in charge.

Lagom

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1258
  • Age: 35
  • Location: SF Bay Area
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2911 on: April 11, 2017, 12:32:28 PM »
Besides the obvious hypocrisy over things like golfing, here is an interesting article illustrating what appears to be much more consistent ideology from Dems vs. consistent partisanship from Repubs, at least when it comes to military action in Syria:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2017/04/11/daily-202-reflexive-partisanship-drives-polling-lurch-on-syria-strikes/58ec27d4e9b69b3a72331e6e/?utm_term=.7412cbec5a24&wpisrc=nl_daily202&wpmm=1'

From the article:

"In 2013, when Barack Obama was president, a Washington Post-ABC News poll found that only 22 percent of Republicans supported the U.S. launching missile strikes against Syria in response to Bashar al-Assad using chemical weapons against civilians.

A new Post-ABC poll finds that 86 percent of Republicans support Donald Trump’s decision to launch strikes on Syria for the same reason.

...

For context, 37 percent of Democrats back Trump’s missile strikes. In 2013, 38 percent of Democrats supported Obama’s plan. That is well within the margin of error."
« Last Edit: April 11, 2017, 01:53:13 PM by Lagom »

dividendman

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1067
  • Age: 36
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2912 on: April 11, 2017, 01:46:21 PM »
So what's the over/under on Chump going to war with NK? Gawd I don't miss having Republicans in charge.

I'd say the odds depend heavily on if Ivanka sees a picture of a starving North Korean child or not.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/11/politics/ivanka-trump-syria-strike-influence-telegraph/index.html

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 842
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2913 on: April 12, 2017, 05:59:49 PM »
I'll play the NK prediction game: I will throw out a 10% chance of a conflict within the next year.

The situation is becoming critical as NK has apparently gone all-in on a strategy of defense predicated on increasing its nuclear launch capabilities. NK suspects it can pose a credible regional nuclear threat sooner than international pressure can address the situation, and that the US would not risk a preemptive strike. Obama was apparently ready to declare diplomatic solutions without Chinese support to be futile and although the left-of-launch sabotage efforts by the US have drastically slowed missile development progress in NK for some time, that effort alone will not contain NK's capabilities for much longer.

China, for its part, has no good options either: its intervention could precipitate a disorderly collapse of NK and cooperation with the US would signal some degree of subordination of their own interests to those of the US. And following reunification, a united Korea would be a massive inconvenience for China. Hence, such measures would be risky and have high prestige costs for China's leadership.

So what the US could do is build up a very credible image that a preemptive strike is imminent. If successful, that would raise the cost of inaction for China such that they might go down the path of strong-arming NK, despite the risks and lost face from doing so.

Foreign Affairs magazine early this year suggested a renewed policy of engagement and security-assurances for NK as the best approach, but given how close NK seems to think it is to its nuclear goals, I don't see how that would succeed at this late stage.

hoping2retire35

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1403
  • Location: UPCOUNTRY CAROLINA
  • just want to see where this appears
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2914 on: April 13, 2017, 06:28:11 AM »
Though I still don't like the Syria strikes on principle it seems like it may have been a smart move; geopolitically. Trump/USA doesn't tolerate Sarin gas so of course anything that smells of nuclear is going to get hit. Russia gets to keep Syria as a puppet state if it plays ball in NK. China is clearly dis aligning itself with NK; see return of coal imports.

Sockigal

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 36
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2915 on: April 13, 2017, 11:37:20 AM »
What the heck is going on? Why is the US military suddenly so interested in dropping bombs? The first attack in Syria seemed to do very little damage for 50 bombs. I was a little confused why we would do minor damage, but was thinking it was Trumps plan to distance himself from the Russia story. The dialogue from Team Trump over the days following the Syria bombing seem to support that theory. Yesterday he said relations with Russia are at an all time low. Unless you have rose colored glasses and have drunk the cool aid, I think most of us see right through this spinning of truth and games.

But what's with the current bombing? I know some of the voices online suggested after Trump couldn't get many of his executive orders & bills through congress passed he would turn to wartime efforts. Urgh..... I'm not against using force in the world to conquer evil, but I definitely think diplomacy and unity with our allies is the way to go for most problems. Trump doesn't seem to have a foreign policy plan right now. His team constantly sends out conflicting and confusing messages. Right now it feels like the Trump is using war toys for distraction from the Russia issue. Will it work?

http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/13/politics/afghanistan-isis-moab-bomb/index.html

DavidAnnArbor

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1794
  • Age: 53
  • Location: Ann Arbor, Michigan
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2916 on: April 13, 2017, 11:49:52 AM »
"The strike on Tuesday was the third time in a month that American-led airstrikes may have killed civilians or allies. The military called the episode 'tragic.'"

Trump's engagement in Syria is making Obama's policies look more and more prescient.

Kris

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3356
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2917 on: April 13, 2017, 01:00:39 PM »
What the heck is going on? Why is the US military suddenly so interested in dropping bombs? The first attack in Syria seemed to do very little damage for 50 bombs. I was a little confused why we would do minor damage, but was thinking it was Trumps plan to distance himself from the Russia story. The dialogue from Team Trump over the days following the Syria bombing seem to support that theory. Yesterday he said relations with Russia are at an all time low. Unless you have rose colored glasses and have drunk the cool aid, I think most of us see right through this spinning of truth and games.

But what's with the current bombing? I know some of the voices online suggested after Trump couldn't get many of his executive orders & bills through congress passed he would turn to wartime efforts. Urgh..... I'm not against using force in the world to conquer evil, but I definitely think diplomacy and unity with our allies is the way to go for most problems. Trump doesn't seem to have a foreign policy plan right now. His team constantly sends out conflicting and confusing messages. Right now it feels like the Trump is using war toys for distraction from the Russia issue. Will it work?

http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/13/politics/afghanistan-isis-moab-bomb/index.html

He's coming up on 100 days with a crapload of nothing to show for it and wants to look forceful and like he's accomplishing things.

Lagom

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1258
  • Age: 35
  • Location: SF Bay Area
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2918 on: April 13, 2017, 01:10:12 PM »
What the heck is going on? Why is the US military suddenly so interested in dropping bombs? The first attack in Syria seemed to do very little damage for 50 bombs. I was a little confused why we would do minor damage, but was thinking it was Trumps plan to distance himself from the Russia story. The dialogue from Team Trump over the days following the Syria bombing seem to support that theory. Yesterday he said relations with Russia are at an all time low. Unless you have rose colored glasses and have drunk the cool aid, I think most of us see right through this spinning of truth and games.

But what's with the current bombing? I know some of the voices online suggested after Trump couldn't get many of his executive orders & bills through congress passed he would turn to wartime efforts. Urgh..... I'm not against using force in the world to conquer evil, but I definitely think diplomacy and unity with our allies is the way to go for most problems. Trump doesn't seem to have a foreign policy plan right now. His team constantly sends out conflicting and confusing messages. Right now it feels like the Trump is using war toys for distraction from the Russia issue. Will it work?

http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/13/politics/afghanistan-isis-moab-bomb/index.html

He's coming up on 100 days with a crapload of nothing to show for it and wants to look forceful and like he's accomplishing things.

Sadly, bombing brown people remains as popular as ever here in the good old USA.

Retire-Canada

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6757
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2919 on: April 13, 2017, 01:14:08 PM »
Sadly, bombing brown people remains as popular as ever here in the good old USA.

Indeed. You can only shoot so many in the US before it becomes a problem at least temporarily. OTOH bombing the crap out of them on the other side of the world doesn't cause as many problems.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 842
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2920 on: April 13, 2017, 06:10:30 PM »
Well, the Syria bombing being viewed as a break-up letter to Putin is charming but I suspect it's still more about swiping left on NK. This article is too kind to Trump (Hillary likely would have led us to the same place we're at now) so I think Trump has merely passed from aimlessness to adequacy:

Something interesting is happening in China and perhaps President Trump deserves some credit.

For the first time, the Chinese government appears to have laid down a bottom-line with North Korea and is threatening Pyongyang with a response of “unprecedented ferocity” if the government of Kim Jong Un goes ahead with a test of either an intercontinental ballistic missile or a nuclear device. North Korea will celebrate the 105th anniversary of the birth of its founder, Kim Il Sung, on Saturday, and some type of military show of force is expected.

In an editorial in the semi-official Global Times on April 12, Pyongyang was put on notice that it must reign in its nuclear ambitions, or else China’s oil shipments to North Korea could be “severely limited.” It is extraordinary for China to make this kind of threat. For more than a decade, as part of its strategy to prop up one of its only allies, China refused to allow the U.N. Security Council to even consider cutting oil shipments to the north. Beijing’s calculus was that the maintenance of the North Korean regime took precedence over everything. Now Beijing seems to be reconsidering its position.



EscapeVelocity2020

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1798
  • Age: 45
  • Location: Houston
    • EscapeVelocity2020
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2921 on: April 14, 2017, 09:21:40 PM »
It's actually more terrifying hearing other countries have to tell Trump that nuclear war is dumb than the cold war was.  At least back then there was some acknowledgement that the two best countries on the planet were going to reduce their land to toxic swamps.  People are just more distracted nowadays (and apparently ignorant to the significance of things) and so nuclear war is starting to become more of a real threat than it ever was in the 80's. 

So that, currently, is the most significant impact of Trump - that the US has a giant target on its back and the rest of the world  thinks they're better off with a little less America...  But you know, Trump is a great deal maker.  I'm sure we'll be fine.  Especially if there is an attack, I'm sure we will experience a measured, considerate response - nothing like the ongoing quagmire of Iraq and Afghanistan.

SingleMomDebt

  • Guest
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2922 on: April 14, 2017, 09:52:04 PM »
But you know, Trump is a great deal maker.  I'm sure we'll be fine. 

I hope your right cuz I'm a little bit terrified right now...

EscapeVelocity2020

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1798
  • Age: 45
  • Location: Houston
    • EscapeVelocity2020
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2923 on: April 14, 2017, 10:15:24 PM »
Wouldn't it be nice if 'great responsibility' actually was a pre-requisite for great power?  Instead, Americans live in a world where school shootings don't change anything.  Occasionally there are discussions on the second amendment, that get perverted into referendums on  hunting and freedom - when the actual discussion started (and should've ended) on how Columbine and Sandy Hook shooters were overly-well armed.  Obviously there is something wrong when kids can murder tens or hundreds of helpless classmates.

Yeah, America is terrifying.  I have no idea how long it will remain a world leader, but choosing the successor correctly will make or break your future.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 842
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2924 on: April 15, 2017, 01:42:55 AM »
It's actually more terrifying hearing other countries have to tell Trump that nuclear war is dumb than the cold war was.  At least back then there was some acknowledgement that the two best countries on the planet were going to reduce their land to toxic swamps.  People are just more distracted nowadays (and apparently ignorant to the significance of things) and so nuclear war is starting to become more of a real threat than it ever was in the 80's. 

So that, currently, is the most significant impact of Trump - that the US has a giant target on its back and the rest of the world  thinks they're better off with a little less America...  But you know, Trump is a great deal maker.  I'm sure we'll be fine.  Especially if there is an attack, I'm sure we will experience a measured, considerate response - nothing like the ongoing quagmire of Iraq and Afghanistan.
Russia/USSR was never remotely close to being "one of the two best countries." Also there was this incident in the 80s and this incident in the 90s, though both were the result of Russia/USSR being a really shitty country.

Apparently, the general strategy of the Trump administration on NK was leaked recently:

The Trump administration has settled on its North Korea strategy after a two-month review: "Maximum pressure and engagement."

U.S. officials said Friday the president's advisers weighed a range of ideas for how to get North Korea to abandon its nuclear program, including military options and trying to overthrow the isolated communist dictatorship's leadership. At the other end of the spectrum, they looked at the notion of accepting North Korea as a nuclear state.

In the end, however, they settled on a policy that appears to represent continuity.

The administration's emphasis, the officials said, will be on increasing pressure on Pyongyang with the help of China, North Korea's dominant trade partner. The officials weren't authorized to speak publicly on the results of the policy review and requested anonymity....
But a U.S. military official, who requested anonymity to discuss planning, said the U.S. doesn't intend to use military force against North Korea in response to either a nuclear test or a missile launch. The official said plans could change in the unlikely event a North Korean missile targets South Korea, Japan or U.S. territory.



China and the US have now both warned NK to refrain from resuming missile or nuclear testing. The NYTimes has an interesting set of satellite imagery showing the extensive earth-works undertaken to prepare for what is presumed to be NK's imminent nuclear test, possibly of a much stronger boosted warhead. It will be interesting to see if the expensive preparation for this test is a bluff, or if not, if NK will proceed with it desptie the added pressure. A lack of a test soon out of NK would suggest progress, possibly brought about by US brinksmanship and increased Chinese diplomatic cooperation (if China wants to post funny pictures of Trump in exchange for cooperation, that's not a bad trade).



lost_in_the_endless_aisle

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 842
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2925 on: April 15, 2017, 07:52:18 PM »
Bad news that NK attempted a launch but good news it failed. Now China and/or the US will have to respond somehow for ignoring the warnings against ongoing tests. If China doesn't step up, the US will either need to move more military assets into the area until China folds or apply secondary sanctions to Chinese companies doing business with NK, up to and including freezing Chinese banks engaged in business with NK out of the dollar exchange system. Both parties could ignore the attempted launch but that would look far too weak in light of the vigorous warnings, despite the test's failure.

scottish

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1208
  • Location: Ottawa
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2926 on: April 16, 2017, 10:52:16 AM »
As long as nobody accidentally blows an American warship out of the water everything will be ok.

I'm trying to imagine the American reaction if China sent a task force into the Caribbean as a show of force.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 842
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2927 on: April 16, 2017, 01:00:25 PM »
^I'm not sure if that's some impossibly contorted effort to suggest an unfair disparity in moral equivalence between China and the US in pursuit of geopolitical aims. That would be a fair comparison...if only Cuba and the Dominican Republic were China's allies and Haiti had nuclear bombs and was threatening to use them on Cuba, the Dominican Republic, and Shanghai.

scottish

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1208
  • Location: Ottawa
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2928 on: April 16, 2017, 07:26:06 PM »
I don't think US has the moral high ground these days.  China's geopolitical aims are no more obnoxious than America's.

The similarities to the Cuban missile crisis in the 60's are interesting though.    The US had stationed ballistic missiles in Turkey and Italy, close to the USSR.   In response, the USSR stationed missiles in Cuba.   The US escalated further with a blockade of Cuba.   In the end both the USSR and the US agreed to dismantle their 'strategic' weapons in these locations.   source  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_Missile_Crisis

Today we have the US retaliating to North Korean threats by moving military forces into the sea of Japan.   How would you respond if you were the Chinese government?

EscapeVelocity2020

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1798
  • Age: 45
  • Location: Houston
    • EscapeVelocity2020
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2929 on: April 16, 2017, 08:45:54 PM »
Russia/USSR was never remotely close to being "one of the two best countries." Also there was this incident in the 80s and this incident in the 90s, though both were the result of Russia/USSR being a really shitty country.

Apparently, the general strategy of the Trump administration on NK was leaked recently (snip)

Thanks for the interesting links LostITEA.  Is it a bad thing I'm on edge going in to another week where literally anything geo-politically is possible?  Maybe Trump sends a Tweet that finally pushes the Far East over the edge and they just decide it's best to cut their losses and instead work together against an unpredictable, unaccommodating, and generally bullying West.  Maybe it was better not knowing when the world was balanced on a knife edge at one point?  But then again, past that one point I had assumed that at least there were professionals making life or death decisions for the general populace, but that is out the window.  Trump spends way too much time at Mar-a-Lago for anyone to think he is taking his job or the future of America seriously.  And apparently we are complacent that wars get started by people that have no concept of history or compromise.  Bombing places that he isn't even conversationally aware of their location or significance - terrifying. 

Lagom

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1258
  • Age: 35
  • Location: SF Bay Area
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2930 on: April 17, 2017, 12:11:19 AM »
^^ Indeed, I will be glad if Trump's terrifying unpredictability somehow leads to increased peace and security, but from what we know now, it's pretty clear such an outcome will be mostly a result of blind luck, especially since he is already giddily warmongering as much as any of his predecessors regarding the Middle East.
« Last Edit: April 17, 2017, 12:19:56 AM by Lagom »

GuitarStv

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 12091
  • Age: 37
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2931 on: April 17, 2017, 06:08:25 AM »
^I'm not sure if that's some impossibly contorted effort to suggest an unfair disparity in moral equivalence between China and the US in pursuit of geopolitical aims. That would be a fair comparison...if only Cuba and the Dominican Republic were China's allies and Haiti had nuclear bombs and was threatening to use them on Cuba, the Dominican Republic, and Shanghai.

Could you list all the immoral stuff you think that the government of China commits that hasn't also been committed by the United States in the past 30 years?

Just Joe

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2119
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2932 on: April 17, 2017, 09:57:02 AM »
As long as nobody accidentally blows an American warship out of the water everything will be ok.

I'm trying to imagine the American reaction if China sent a task force into the Caribbean as a show of force.

This is what I keep thinking about:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_of_Tonkin_incident

Let's tease the crazy dictator of NK until he does something? Is that really a good idea?
« Last Edit: April 17, 2017, 02:39:34 PM by Tasty Pinecones »

EscapeVelocity2020

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1798
  • Age: 45
  • Location: Houston
    • EscapeVelocity2020
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2933 on: April 17, 2017, 11:13:11 AM »
John Oliver did a piece on Nuclear Weapons in 2014 -  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Y1ya-yF35g.  Interesting history on America almost nuking itself in 1961 (the Goldsboro Incident),  He'd probably be a little embarassed to see the final comment hoping that the US intentionally deploys a nuke as opposed to humanity's final word being 'oops'.  Really hope Trump doesn't see this episode on re-run...

MDM

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8703
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2934 on: April 17, 2017, 05:03:35 PM »
Could you list all the immoral stuff you think that the government of China commits that hasn't also been committed by the United States in the past 30 years?

Perhaps China's One-child policy?  E.g.,
Quote
As part of the policy, women were required to have a contraceptive intrauterine device (IUD) surgically installed after having a first child, and to be sterilized by tubal ligation after having a second child. From 1980 to 2014, 324 million Chinese women were fitted with IUDs in this way and 107 million were sterilized. Women who refused these procedures – which many resented – could lose their government employment and their children could lose access to education or health services. The IUDs installed in this way were modified such that they could not be removed manually, but only through surgery.

JLee

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4988
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2935 on: April 17, 2017, 06:19:53 PM »
^^ Indeed, I will be glad if Trump's terrifying unpredictability somehow leads to increased peace and security, but from what we know now, it's pretty clear such an outcome will be mostly a result of blind luck, especially since he is already giddily warmongering as much as any of his predecessors regarding the Middle East.

I wonder how excited he was to use the biggest bomb ever.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 842
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2936 on: April 17, 2017, 06:44:09 PM »
Russia/USSR was never remotely close to being "one of the two best countries." Also there was this incident in the 80s and this incident in the 90s, though both were the result of Russia/USSR being a really shitty country.

Apparently, the general strategy of the Trump administration on NK was leaked recently (snip)

Thanks for the interesting links LostITEA.  Is it a bad thing I'm on edge going in to another week where literally anything geo-politically is possible?  Maybe Trump sends a Tweet that finally pushes the Far East over the edge and they just decide it's best to cut their losses and instead work together against an unpredictable, unaccommodating, and generally bullying West.  Maybe it was better not knowing when the world was balanced on a knife edge at one point?  But then again, past that one point I had assumed that at least there were professionals making life or death decisions for the general populace, but that is out the window.  Trump spends way too much time at Mar-a-Lago for anyone to think he is taking his job or the future of America seriously.  And apparently we are complacent that wars get started by people that have no concept of history or compromise.  Bombing places that he isn't even conversationally aware of their location or significance - terrifying.
Recent events have reassured me rather than terrified me. Assuming the story on the administration's leaked NK policy is true, it is the result of 2 months of deliberation over a wide range of available options. Rather than live up to his reputation for impulsiveness, such a review process suggests the emergence of a carefully considered policy from Trump's administration (yes, it's bad that Trump is so daft but fortunately he has some good people advising him). As mentioned before, even Obama was running out of hope for strategic patience, with the current facts on the ground constraining plausible courses of action on NK such that they transcend standard ideological divides.

^I'm not sure if that's some impossibly contorted effort to suggest an unfair disparity in moral equivalence between China and the US in pursuit of geopolitical aims. That would be a fair comparison...if only Cuba and the Dominican Republic were China's allies and Haiti had nuclear bombs and was threatening to use them on Cuba, the Dominican Republic, and Shanghai.

Could you list all the immoral stuff you think that the government of China commits that hasn't also been committed by the United States in the past 30 years?
My point was the scenario described by scottish was not a fair comparison because none of the salient conditions that exist in northeast Asia exist in the Caribbean. Even if we assume moral equivalence between China and the US (which I don't think is true, but I'm being generous to China), the analogy fails on the basis of the difference between the present and historical differences between those two regions.


Hey, what happened to the Trump supporters that used to post on this thread--did y'all chase them out? It would be interesting to get a different perspective on Trump's foreign policy pivot towards one that is diametrically opposed to his campaign promises. Meanwhile, the reactions of some on the left exhibit a fair amount cognitive dissonance (adherence to ideological purity shaves at least 20 IQ points off of a person).

GuitarStv

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 12091
  • Age: 37
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2937 on: April 17, 2017, 07:36:33 PM »
Could you list all the immoral stuff you think that the government of China commits that hasn't also been committed by the United States in the past 30 years?

Perhaps China's One-child policy?  E.g.,
Quote
As part of the policy, women were required to have a contraceptive intrauterine device (IUD) surgically installed after having a first child, and to be sterilized by tubal ligation after having a second child. From 1980 to 2014, 324 million Chinese women were fitted with IUDs in this way and 107 million were sterilized. Women who refused these procedures – which many resented – could lose their government employment and their children could lose access to education or health services. The IUDs installed in this way were modified such that they could not be removed manually, but only through surgery.

The Chinese government doesn't follow the one child policy any more.

That said, it doesn't sound significantly worse than the United States program of coerced sterilization that went on in the 50's in Puerto Rico.  Or the routine sterilizations of poor black women that went on in the late 60's.  Or the forced sterilization of native women in the 1970s (http://muse.jhu.edu/article/200).

Remember how influential American ideas and enactment of eugenics policies were to the Nazis?  (http://www.sfgate.com/opinion/article/Eugenics-and-the-Nazis-the-California-2549771.php)

scottish

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1208
  • Location: Ottawa
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2938 on: April 17, 2017, 07:39:47 PM »
The US seems to be slowly deteriorating as a progressive society whilst China is slowly improving.    I still prefer the US, but the gap seems to get smaller every year.

Could you list all the immoral stuff you think that the government of China commits that hasn't also been committed by the United States in the past 30 years?

Perhaps China's One-child policy?  E.g.,
Quote
As part of the policy, women were required to have a contraceptive intrauterine device (IUD) surgically installed after having a first child, and to be sterilized by tubal ligation after having a second child. From 1980 to 2014, 324 million Chinese women were fitted with IUDs in this way and 107 million were sterilized. Women who refused these procedures – which many resented – could lose their government employment and their children could lose access to education or health services. The IUDs installed in this way were modified such that they could not be removed manually, but only through surgery.

While China was pursuing a one child policy, certain states seem to be pursuing a multiple child policy by restricting access to family planning and abortion.     I think we see a little bit of this in the maritimes in Canada as well.    I find the contrasts stark.

And Canada also had forced sterilization programs after WW2.   It was not just the US.

MDM

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8703
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2939 on: April 17, 2017, 08:41:34 PM »
The Chinese government doesn't follow the one child policy any more.
So that makes it all better, eh?  Just say "we're sorry" and everything is all better?

Quote
That said, it doesn't sound significantly worse than the United States program of coerced sterilization that went on in the 50's in Puerto Rico.  Or the routine sterilizations of poor black women that went on in the late 60's.  Or the forced sterilization of native women in the 1970s (http://muse.jhu.edu/article/200).
So A Single Death is a Tragedy; a Million Deaths is a Statistic?  Just my opinion, but hundreds of millions women affected seems pretty tragic.

Quote
Remember how influential American ideas and enactment of eugenics policies were to the Nazis?  (http://www.sfgate.com/opinion/article/Eugenics-and-the-Nazis-the-California-2549771.php)
Appreciate your opinion that a few Americans were so influential, but I suspect Hitler and his merry men would have done their deeds regardless.

DavidAnnArbor

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1794
  • Age: 53
  • Location: Ann Arbor, Michigan
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2940 on: April 18, 2017, 07:32:55 AM »
The one child policy helped to lift China out of exploding population growth and enable hundreds of millions of Chinese to be lifted up out of poverty.

MDM

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8703
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2941 on: April 18, 2017, 08:30:41 AM »
The one child policy helped to lift China out of exploding population growth and enable hundreds of millions of Chinese to be lifted up out of poverty.
Would you support Trump if he were to propose a similar policy here?

Glenstache

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2037
  • Age: 186
  • Location: Seattle!
  • Target FI date 2027 (maybe?)
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2942 on: April 18, 2017, 09:04:42 AM »
The one child policy helped to lift China out of exploding population growth and enable hundreds of millions of Chinese to be lifted up out of poverty.
Would you support Trump if he were to propose a similar policy here?
The One Child policy obviously had major problems. But, I would support it if the GOP, say, didn't actively work against sex education and family planning services so that Americans can make informed decisions about when and how many children they have. The level of understanding on this in many populations in our country is pretty scary and leads to a lot of unwanted/unplanned/extra pregnancies. IMO the sweet spot on this is in the middle. It is not a false choice as you have framed it.

nereo

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8655
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2943 on: April 18, 2017, 02:11:52 PM »
My staunchly republican grandfather pointed this out over Easter:

Right now Trump and Kim Jong-un are locked in some high stakes political theatre.  Of the two, Jong-un has several times more military and political experience. That's frightening.

JLee

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4988
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2944 on: April 18, 2017, 09:53:37 PM »
The one child policy helped to lift China out of exploding population growth and enable hundreds of millions of Chinese to be lifted up out of poverty.
Would you support Trump if he were to propose a similar policy here?
The One Child policy obviously had major problems. But, I would support it if the GOP, say, didn't actively work against sex education and family planning services so that Americans can make informed decisions about when and how many children they have. The level of understanding on this in many populations in our country is pretty scary and leads to a lot of unwanted/unplanned/extra pregnancies. IMO the sweet spot on this is in the middle. It is not a false choice as you have framed it.

Like Colorado: https://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/06/science/colorados-push-against-teenage-pregnancies-is-a-startling-success.html

EscapeVelocity2020

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1798
  • Age: 45
  • Location: Houston
    • EscapeVelocity2020
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2945 on: April 18, 2017, 11:24:18 PM »
In a way, the Trump family (Donald Jr, Eric, Ivanka, and Melania) are very much like a parody on the fabled Kennedy family.  Kinda' like how Duck Dynasty became a thing.  The majority is in the minority, and pumping them full of optimism in the middle class rising again, well it's been a formula for success so far....

GuitarStv

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 12091
  • Age: 37
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2946 on: April 19, 2017, 05:59:38 AM »
The Chinese government doesn't follow the one child policy any more.
So that makes it all better, eh?  Just say "we're sorry" and everything is all better?

No, it doesn't make it better.  I didn't say that it did.  It does demonstrate my point, which is that the US and China have disturbing similarities (they both decided to enforce large scale breeding programs in the past).  China did it in hopes of controlling population, the US did it for racial superiority reasons.

Quote
That said, it doesn't sound significantly worse than the United States program of coerced sterilization that went on in the 50's in Puerto Rico.  Or the routine sterilizations of poor black women that went on in the late 60's.  Or the forced sterilization of native women in the 1970s (http://muse.jhu.edu/article/200).
So A Single Death is a Tragedy; a Million Deaths is a Statistic?  Just my opinion, but hundreds of millions women affected seems pretty tragic.

Any women affected are pretty tragic.  I'm not apologizing for China, I'm demonstrating for the apparently ignorant Americans in this thread that the country they are claiming has moral superiority has a history of doing the things they're condemning China for.

Quote
Remember how influential American ideas and enactment of eugenics policies were to the Nazis?  (http://www.sfgate.com/opinion/article/Eugenics-and-the-Nazis-the-California-2549771.php)
Appreciate your opinion that a few Americans were so influential, but I suspect Hitler and his merry men would have done their deeds regardless.
[/quote]

Yeah, Hitler probably would have.  But again, it doesn't change the fact that Hitler's ideas were quite popular in the United States prior to WWII.


As has been mentioned, Canada has a history of doing bad stuff in the name of eugenics too.  I'm trying to point out that the (apparently commonly held by Americans) belief in the moral superiority of the United States comes more from jingoism than reality.

MrMonkeyMoustache

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 197
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2947 on: April 19, 2017, 07:21:06 AM »
As a Trump supporter, I definitely disagree with his recent bombings. With that said, I think he gets far too much criticism than he deserves. I mean, c'mon, people were calling for his impeachment before he even took office. A little ridiculous.

As Sean Spicer (who I think is awesome) said, "if the president puts Russian salad dressing on his salad tonight, somehow that's a Russian connection."

And the thing that the left doesn't seem to get is that the CONSTANT barrage of pretty ridiculous, petty claims about anyone right of Elizabeth Warren is the reason Trump was elected. Not racism, not misogyny, not white privilege. It's because people are sick of being told that they're racist, homophobes, xenophobes, misogynistic, and that they owe the world because they're not a minority.

Instead of realizing the reality of the situation, people (particularly antifa) are starting to get violent towards conservatives. It will only recruit more people to the right, and further make this a Republican nation. The same people who think they're fighting against Trump are the reason he was elected.

I wanted Rand Paul, for what it's worth.

tralfamadorian

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 951
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2948 on: April 19, 2017, 08:09:46 AM »
Sean Spicer (who I think is awesome)

I am truly speechless.  I think you may be the only person in America who thinks that man is "awesome".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQ9vt1Kbrp4

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7360
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2949 on: April 19, 2017, 08:20:32 AM »
Instead of realizing the reality of the situation, people (particularly antifa) are starting to get violent towards conservatives.

Can you please explain the term "antifa" to me, as you understand it?

Because to me, that word means "anti-fascists" and is basically synonymous with "good people who believe in equality and thus oppose the type of fascism that was so popular during WWII".  Fascists hate democracy.  Fascists thought WWI was awesome, and wanted a repeat performance.  Fascists used violence against their fellow citizens to coerce support for their authoritarian dictators.  Fascists suck.  Being anti-fascist is awesome.  By this definition, we should ALL be anti-fascists.

And yet some folks, like you apparently, use the term "antifa" in a derogatory manner to belittle and demean people who oppose fascism.  So that means you support fascism?  Usually, I hear that word from people like Richard Spencer, who makes a living going on television and saying outrageous things about what a great guy Hitler was.  I find it almost shocking to hear that word in any other context outside of blatantly inflammatory bigotry designed to offend people.  Is that your intent here, too?

I won't even address the rest of your post until this issue is cleared up first, because if you're just here to troll people (as your use of the word "antifa" suggests) then there's little point in arguing with your content.