Author Topic: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?  (Read 373218 times)

RangerOne

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2250 on: February 20, 2017, 03:27:17 PM »
What little I have heard about the crack down on illegals does seem to carry a tinge of racism. Either that our they are only conveniently talking about Mexican illegal immigrants. Otherwise I would think we would hear something about a crack down on overstayed visa's from a multitude of countries from which we probably have illegals.

I also wonder if this will have any impact on the cost of manual labor across the board. I wonder how many gardening, landscaping and budget construction outfits are employing illegals at low wages.

I don't condone hiring illegals to do work, or be exploited, but it is probably a real cost that many of take advantage of without knowing it even. I don't know who my HOA employees to keep our condo grounds but I know none of the workers are white...

Kris

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2251 on: February 21, 2017, 05:53:06 AM »
A British schoolteacher was denied entry to the US while taking his students on a trip.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/20/british-muslim-teacher-denied-entry-to-us-on-school-trip?CMP=fb_gu

This administration is a cancer.

Working Mama

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2252 on: February 21, 2017, 06:13:59 AM »
A question about this point: "Your argument assumes anyone on welfare would ever do that job. It's a hard job. They could go right now to any farm and do the job, but they won't."

But IF welfare is cut won't able bodied folks need to work - if they want to eat?

"I also disagree that costs would rise that much. Just like in fast food and manufacturing, you'd see robotics get more involved if labor costs increased significantly."

and this quote:

"Mechanized harvesting is the holy-grail of most farming technology, but for most fruit crops it has yet to be realized.  I'm sure someday it will, but not in the months-to-a-year timeframe we're talking about here. I expect in 5-10 years though a lot more of our harvesting will be mechanized."

But that takes a long time to get up and running. I heard, a while back, a news story about trying to mechanize broccoli picking but it was unable to determine when the veg was ready to be picked.  It seems it is going to be a long way off... but no doubt it is being worked on now.  Maybe the five to ten years estimate is accurate?


So what kind of societal upset will the world have with all these people who use to work and now there is zero work for them?  Do we have a few more wars to reduce the population? MAyeb climate change or the pandemic Bill gates is warning us about will reset the worlds population? Marshall Brain's book comes to mind - is it called Mana?

"I ran an aquaculture farm and we constantly hired people to help with harvesting and processing. A few native-born people applied but they never stayed long. Those who were born elsewhere worked harder and stuck around, and most would work harvesting crops when our work was slow. "

I always wondered if this notion that Americans don't want to work as hard as immigrants was a myth or real.  While I appreciate your experience, and I have a similar perception, has anyone actually seen research that is more conclusive?
« Last Edit: February 21, 2017, 06:26:43 AM by Working Mama »

nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2253 on: February 21, 2017, 06:25:25 AM »
THe long-term effects of mechanization is a good thing to consider, but I think we tend to be short-sighted and prone to thinking 'this time is different!'.  This is a subject that has garnered fear for over two centuries.  Textile mills used to employ thousands each. Transport ships used to have crews of hundreds. Automobile factories used to have dozens working on each car.  Now those jobs are done by just a few and the output is orders of magnitude more.  YEt here we are, with a greater percentage of families living above poverty than ever before.

Even when we 'loose' jobs to mechanization and productivity gains, those profits wind up being shifted somewhere else. The service industry is one place that's had spectacular growth, in part because people outsource more and more tasks.  EVentually those jobs may go to, but I'll bet people will just shift into something else.

then there's the whole 'universal income' idea.  Not entirely sold on it yet, but it could make a lot of sense.

Gin1984

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2254 on: February 21, 2017, 06:43:28 AM »
A question about this point: "Your argument assumes anyone on welfare would ever do that job. It's a hard job. They could go right now to any farm and do the job, but they won't."

But IF welfare is cut won't able bodied folks need to work - if they want to eat?

"I also disagree that costs would rise that much. Just like in fast food and manufacturing, you'd see robotics get more involved if labor costs increased significantly."

and this quote:

"Mechanized harvesting is the holy-grail of most farming technology, but for most fruit crops it has yet to be realized.  I'm sure someday it will, but not in the months-to-a-year timeframe we're talking about here. I expect in 5-10 years though a lot more of our harvesting will be mechanized."

But that takes a long time to get up and running. I heard, a while back, a news story about trying to mechanize broccoli picking but it was unable to determine when the veg was ready to be picked.  It seems it is going to be a long way off... but no doubt it is being worked on now.  Maybe the five to ten years estimate is accurate?


So what kind of societal upset will the world have with all these people who use to work and now there is zero work for them?  Do we have a few more wars to reduce the population? MAyeb climate change or the pandemic Bill gates is warning us about will reset the worlds population? Marshall Brain's book comes to mind - is it called Mana?

"I ran an aquaculture farm and we constantly hired people to help with harvesting and processing. A few native-born people applied but they never stayed long. Those who were born elsewhere worked harder and stuck around, and most would work harvesting crops when our work was slow. "

I always wondered if this notion that Americans don't want to work as hard as immigrants was a myth or real.  While I appreciate your experience, and I have a similar perception, has anyone actually seen research that is more conclusive?
I think it is self-selection. Those who are willing to take the risks to come here are more likely to work damn hard once they get here.  There are the same people here and we can select for them but we are comparing a specific group to a whole population.

nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2255 on: February 21, 2017, 06:56:19 AM »
...
I always wondered if this notion that Americans don't want to work as hard as immigrants was a myth or real.  While I appreciate your experience, and I have a similar perception, has anyone actually seen research that is more conclusive?
I think it is self-selection. Those who are willing to take the risks to come here are more likely to work damn hard once they get here.  There are the same people here and we can select for them but we are comparing a specific group to a whole population.
I think there may be some truth to this; people who were born in this country and who are very motivated most likely have already found gainful employment.  Those who are new here are often very motivated, but they're competing with people who, for whatever reason, have already been 'selected out' of the normal economy.  So we've got motivated immigrants competing against the least successful native-borns.  It isn't surprising (to me) which wind up being the better employees.

justchristine

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2256 on: February 21, 2017, 07:14:50 AM »

I always wondered if this notion that Americans don't want to work as hard as immigrants was a myth or real.  While I appreciate your experience, and I have a similar perception, has anyone actually seen research that is more conclusive?

There was an investigative show, I think it was Vice, that looked into the impact that the illegal immigrant crack down in one southern state (i forget which one) had on the farming industry.  The farmers really struggled to find workers that would show up and put in the effort.  One farmer they interviewed even tried working with the prison system to use convicts to harvest but they were not nearly as productive as he needed workers to be.  It was really an enlightening show.

Kris

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2257 on: February 21, 2017, 07:50:56 AM »
Here's another realistic impact of the Trump presidency: the international scientific community will no longer want to travel or come to the US.

https://www.pri.org/stories/2017-02-20/scientists-skip-international-meeting-due-fear-us-travel

nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2258 on: February 21, 2017, 08:03:50 AM »
Here's another realistic impact of the Trump presidency: the international scientific community will no longer want to travel or come to the US.

https://www.pri.org/stories/2017-02-20/scientists-skip-international-meeting-due-fear-us-travel
As a scientist working in Canada right now, I can attest that this is a very big deal right now in the scientific community. No one wants to exclude their colleagues from a meeting, and it's causing some logistical problems when scheduling conferences, which are the main way that we get feedback and build partnerships with other programs.

It might not have a huge economic impact beyond the immediate vicinity of conference centers in downtown areas, but the US scientific community certainly looses

Burghardt

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2259 on: February 21, 2017, 08:20:05 AM »
*Side issue: In another thread, I mentioned Trump doing the inverse of draining the swamp when he hired billionaires and centimillionaires for his cabinet. The reply from a Trump supporter was, "I thought "the man" was the ones oppressing those tycoons." I never realized that there were different definitions of The Man and that, somehow, a billionaire wasn't part of the establishment. It must be related to Ayn Randian worship.
you are referring to the meaning of "drain the swamp" as branded by the media. They insist it meant removing money in general from politics, regardless of who holds it.
The original implication was to remove politicians who follow neither their own nor their constituents will, but the will of the highest bidder from the circle of lobbyists and special interest groups for personal, not the country's, gain.
This is "the swamp".

Source?
Ethics reform plans and listening to Trump talk. It's not like he ever made a secret out of being rich or that he was going to appoint ludicrously successful / rich people.

Also, doesn't one follow the other? The highest bidder is only possible because there's huge money in politics. That money comes from corporate interests and billionaires and, generally, the .1%.

Getting rid of an entrenched Congressling who listens to money from lobbyists is a good thing but it doesn't really help if the buyer behind the lobbyist replaces him/her.
The implication is that you get exactly what you were voting for - and that their wealth makes them disproportionately harder to buy, allowing for independent decisions. One of the core things Trump campaigned on, really. The obvious danger is setting a fox to keep the geese, if that's the right way to put it in English.
However - to say this isn't perfectly in line with what he said on the campaign trail is false.

In my opinion, Miller and Bannon are far greater cause for concern. I see both of them as ideologues who won't hesitate to abandon reasonable judgment in favor of personal agenda.

nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2260 on: February 21, 2017, 08:53:01 AM »
*Side issue: In another thread, I mentioned Trump doing the inverse of draining the swamp when he hired billionaires and centimillionaires for his cabinet. The reply from a Trump supporter was, "I thought "the man" was the ones oppressing those tycoons." I never realized that there were different definitions of The Man and that, somehow, a billionaire wasn't part of the establishment. It must be related to Ayn Randian worship.
you are referring to the meaning of "drain the swamp" as branded by the media. They insist it meant removing money in general from politics, regardless of who holds it.
The original implication was to remove politicians who follow neither their own nor their constituents will, but the will of the highest bidder from the circle of lobbyists and special interest groups for personal, not the country's, gain.
This is "the swamp".

Source?
Ethics reform plans and listening to Trump talk. It's not like he ever made a secret out of being rich or that he was going to appoint ludicrously successful / rich people.

Also, doesn't one follow the other? The highest bidder is only possible because there's huge money in politics. That money comes from corporate interests and billionaires and, generally, the .1%.

Getting rid of an entrenched Congressling who listens to money from lobbyists is a good thing but it doesn't really help if the buyer behind the lobbyist replaces him/her.
The implication is that you get exactly what you were voting for - and that their wealth makes them disproportionately harder to buy, allowing for independent decisions. One of the core things Trump campaigned on, really. The obvious danger is setting a fox to keep the geese, if that's the right way to put it in English.
However - to say this isn't perfectly in line with what he said on the campaign trail is false.

see - that line of thinking might actually hold some water if Trump hadn't specifically and routinely attacked HRC for being "too cozy with Wall Street".  Hiring billionaires doesn't equate with people who will act in the best interests of the country because they don't need the wealth.  In most cases greed and ambition is what drives these ultra-rich individuals, and money is their measuring stick. Despite not actually needing any more money they see regulation and taxes as the enemy to increasing their profits, and will move to reduce and remove these even at the expense of 'the little people.'
Furthermore, DJT has appointed several of the RNC's largest donors, including Linda McMahon and Betsy DeVos, despite neither having any clear experience or aptitude for their respective positions.  This runs counter to your argument that they he has "drained the swamp" by eliminating the influence of 'the highest bidder.'

Kris

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2261 on: February 21, 2017, 09:02:24 AM »
Another realistic impact: According to a former National Security Council member, we are much less safe and ready for a possible terrorist attack now that Trump is in the White House.

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/2/20/1635992/-National-Security-Council-veteran-warns-that-our-terrorism-readiness-is-dangerously-low?Detail=facebook

dividendman

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2262 on: February 21, 2017, 09:14:30 AM »
A question about this point: "Your argument assumes anyone on welfare would ever do that job. It's a hard job. They could go right now to any farm and do the job, but they won't."

But IF welfare is cut won't able bodied folks need to work - if they want to eat?

Yes, if this actually happened I think they would work - or maybe the suicide rate/homelessness/etc. would go even higher for these folks since they think they're entitled to more. I don't think it'll happen.

The reality is that the US has always had an exploitable underclass that's really lifted the rest of the population in terms of standard of living and the overall economy. Slaves, indentured servants, various waves of legal and illegal immigrants. No great American feat from settling the massive continent to building railroads and other infrastructure to winning the civil and various other wars could have been accomplished without this underclass.

It's indisputable, if facts are to be considered, that immigration (including illegal immigration) is so good for the legal/native born population that even if they do turn it down for a bit it'll come back.

I wrote a long post about why this is so here: http://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/anti-immigrant-republicans-please-help-me-understand/msg1301415/#msg1301415

Just Joe

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2263 on: February 21, 2017, 09:29:57 AM »
Yes, if this actually happened I think they would work - or maybe the suicide rate/homelessness/etc. would go even higher for these folks since they think they're entitled to more. I don't think it'll happen.

Crime will go up. I lived overseas in a country with alot of unemployment. Lots of young men who could not find work. They turned to organized crime, petty theft, blackmarkets, unregulated businesses working "off the grid" i.e. renting a small shop to make or fix stuff. This led to a bustling underground economy where you could buy things or get things fixed very affordably for cash but no recourse if they did shabby work or disappeared with your item that you left for repair. It also led to alot of tax evasion. 

Sockigal

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2264 on: February 21, 2017, 12:01:23 PM »
A question about this point: "Your argument assumes anyone on welfare would ever do that job. It's a hard job. They could go right now to any farm and do the job, but they won't."

But IF welfare is cut won't able bodied folks need to work - if they want to eat?

"I also disagree that costs would rise that much. Just like in fast food and manufacturing, you'd see robotics get more involved if labor costs increased significantly."

and this quote:

"Mechanized harvesting is the holy-grail of most farming technology, but for most fruit crops it has yet to be realized.  I'm sure someday it will, but not in the months-to-a-year timeframe we're talking about here. I expect in 5-10 years though a lot more of our harvesting will be mechanized."

But that takes a long time to get up and running. I heard, a while back, a news story about trying to mechanize broccoli picking but it was unable to determine when the veg was ready to be picked.  It seems it is going to be a long way off... but no doubt it is being worked on now.  Maybe the five to ten years estimate is accurate?


So what kind of societal upset will the world have with all these people who use to work and now there is zero work for them?  Do we have a few more wars to reduce the population? MAyeb climate change or the pandemic Bill gates is warning us about will reset the worlds population? Marshall Brain's book comes to mind - is it called Mana?

"I ran an aquaculture farm and we constantly hired people to help with harvesting and processing. A few native-born people applied but they never stayed long. Those who were born elsewhere worked harder and stuck around, and most would work harvesting crops when our work was slow. "

I always wondered if this notion that Americans don't want to work as hard as immigrants was a myth or real.  While I appreciate your experience, and I have a similar perception, has anyone actually seen research that is more conclusive?
It's a fallacy that people on welfare or those who obtain government assistance don't already work full time jobs. Most of those on welfare already work, the government subsidizes their earned income. I have worked various jobs the last couple of years in the grocery industry. Many of my co-workers worked full time at (very fancy grocery stores) and also received government assistance. Some of these workers put in 15 to 20 years with the company and still were earning only $15-20 a hour. Then those jobs were eliminated. These folks were asked to step into lower positions with even less pay, but do the same duties as their previous job titles.


SisterX

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2265 on: February 21, 2017, 12:46:52 PM »
It's a fallacy that people on welfare or those who obtain government assistance don't already work full time jobs. Most of those on welfare already work, the government subsidizes their earned income. I have worked various jobs the last couple of years in the grocery industry. Many of my co-workers worked full time at (very fancy grocery stores) and also received government assistance. Some of these workers put in 15 to 20 years with the company and still were earning only $15-20 a hour. Then those jobs were eliminated. These folks were asked to step into lower positions with even less pay, but do the same duties as their previous job titles.

It also assumes that the majority of people on welfare or getting benefits live where they could get out in the fields and work or that they could easily get out to the countryside to do these jobs. Since people on benefits or that are homeless live mostly in cities, just like the rest of the US population, both of those assumptions are rather silly. Add in the fact that farm work isn't much better than slave labor in many cases (long hours, very little pay, no breaks) and the whole poisoning aspect (quite a few people around the world are sickened or die due to pesticides, mostly insecticides, every single year--even here in the US) and yes, it's a thoroughly unappealing job.

But sure, get all those poor people out there and make them fucking grateful for it! I mean, shouldn't they be happy they've got a job at all?

Working Mama

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2266 on: February 21, 2017, 01:10:14 PM »
A question about this point: "Your argument assumes anyone on welfare would ever do that job. It's a hard job. They could go right now to any farm and do the job, but they won't."

But IF welfare is cut won't able bodied folks need to work - if they want to eat?

"I also disagree that costs would rise that much. Just like in fast food and manufacturing, you'd see robotics get more involved if labor costs increased significantly."

and this quote:

"Mechanized harvesting is the holy-grail of most farming technology, but for most fruit crops it has yet to be realized.  I'm sure someday it will, but not in the months-to-a-year timeframe we're talking about here. I expect in 5-10 years though a lot more of our harvesting will be mechanized."

But that takes a long time to get up and running. I heard, a while back, a news story about trying to mechanize broccoli picking but it was unable to determine when the veg was ready to be picked.  It seems it is going to be a long way off... but no doubt it is being worked on now.  Maybe the five to ten years estimate is accurate?


So what kind of societal upset will the world have with all these people who use to work and now there is zero work for them?  Do we have a few more wars to reduce the population? MAyeb climate change or the pandemic Bill gates is warning us about will reset the worlds population? Marshall Brain's book comes to mind - is it called Mana?

"I ran an aquaculture farm and we constantly hired people to help with harvesting and processing. A few native-born people applied but they never stayed long. Those who were born elsewhere worked harder and stuck around, and most would work harvesting crops when our work was slow. "

I always wondered if this notion that Americans don't want to work as hard as immigrants was a myth or real.  While I appreciate your experience, and I have a similar perception, has anyone actually seen research that is more conclusive?
It's a fallacy that people on welfare or those who obtain government assistance don't already work full time jobs. Most of those on welfare already work, the government subsidizes their earned income. I have worked various jobs the last couple of years in the grocery industry. Many of my co-workers worked full time at (very fancy grocery stores) and also received government assistance. Some of these workers put in 15 to 20 years with the company and still were earning only $15-20 a hour. Then those jobs were eliminated. These folks were asked to step into lower positions with even less pay, but do the same duties as their previous job titles.

SAD

RangerOne

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2267 on: February 21, 2017, 04:12:05 PM »
4Chan didn't put Trump in office though parts of that demographic being drawn to him is no real surprise. Working class people in the rust belt elected Trump, that's what the number show. Most other people voted along party lines which is not real surprise given the polarizing nature of the candidates.

My only experience with 4Chan has been reading former users opinions of it. When people refer to 4Chan regulars as losers, I think they are more focused on them being socially repressed or awkward. It doesn't mean they are all jobless pot smokers. Even many of its own former users admit that being deeply involved in 4Chan, like poring hours daily into it, is generally unhealthy. It is a sign of extreme boredom, a general disillusion and anger with regular society. Some former users have some pretty strong opinions on much of it being a cyclone of negativity dragging everyone involved down with it and that they were happy to eventually escape. Or they could just be looking at walls of cat memes all day.

Overall I have not heard any heavy user describe it as place where happy well adjusted people go regularly to hold interesting discussions. It is kind of the opposite thing. 4Chan and pepe's ties to the Trump election are fun and interesting in a ridiculous way. But the populist right wing movement that Trump jumped in on with the help of Steve Bannon is a phenomenon well beyond the bounds of a handful of 4Chan dissidents.

It is a real reaction based in a festering undercurrent of right wing racism and nationalism in the face of a Muslim refugee crises with new bolder Muslim terrorism, a long held animosity towards Mexican immigrants, mixed with a very healthy serving of economic distress in the middle class as globalization continues to rip away high paying skilled labor jobs. That has been happening for at least the past 30 years. The same sentiments are manifesting in populist movements all over Europe, sometimes with right wing people worse than Trump, other times with left wing populists like Bernie Sanders. The left wingers prefer to rail on the 0.01% that are profiteering off globalization and single them out, leaving immigrants out of the circle of hate. But much of the core reaction is the same.

Metric Mouse

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2268 on: February 21, 2017, 04:25:03 PM »
In other news, riots immigrants riot in Sweden today.  http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/21/europe/sweden-stockholm-riots/index.html

I can just imagine how Trump will play this one.


accolay

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2269 on: February 22, 2017, 01:25:09 PM »
Here's another realistic impact of the Trump presidency: the international scientific community will no longer want to travel or come to the US.
https://www.pri.org/stories/2017-02-20/scientists-skip-international-meeting-due-fear-us-travel
I know this has been covered either in this thread or another similar, but beyond being afraid of traveling to the US, why would scientists want to come to US when we are just not going to put as much money into the research? The rest of the world is going to leave the US in the dust.




nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2270 on: February 22, 2017, 01:36:00 PM »
Here's another realistic impact of the Trump presidency: the international scientific community will no longer want to travel or come to the US.
https://www.pri.org/stories/2017-02-20/scientists-skip-international-meeting-due-fear-us-travel
I know this has been covered either in this thread or another similar, but beyond being afraid of traveling to the US, why would scientists want to come to US when we are just not going to put as much money into the research? The rest of the world is going to leave the US in the dust.

I think this is one of the things we stand to loose the most.  At present the US has more research institutions in the top 100 than any other country, plus (until very recently) a pretty enticing set of conditions (stable, high-paying jobs, expensive scientific infrastructure etc) to lure smart people here from other nations. We risk loosing that edge, and once lost it will be incredibly hard to regain.

accolay

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2271 on: February 22, 2017, 02:01:59 PM »
Another random piece of the puzzle the Trump administration can't figure out how to fit to complete the big picture.

sol

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2272 on: February 22, 2017, 02:35:25 PM »
Another random piece of the puzzle the Trump administration can't figure out how to fit to complete the big picture.

What's the big picture, exactly?  I'm not even sure there is one.

So far, Trump had spent more time in office playing golf with celebrities (25 hours) than he has on foreign relations (21), and more time on Twitter (18 hours) than in intelligence briefings (6).  Looks to me like he doesn't really care about any big pictures, unless they are large and illegally purchased paintings of himself that resulted in tax fraud charges.

His approval rating, which started out the lowest in history for an incoming president, is plummeting.  He's filled his cabinet with billiinaire donors to his campaign.   His spokespeople routinely contradict each other.  His Muslim ban was a failure.  He's routinely upending decades of established US foreign policy with no apparent plan for what to replace it with. And every day it looks more and more like the contents of the Steele dossier are true, as additional pieces continue to get confirmed, in which case it's only a matter of time before the trump piss tape hits pornhub.  The whole administration is a hot mess right now, and even though I think Trump is a con man I still want him to get his shit together so we can have a functional government.

Big picture?  I think he's still desperately trying to find his footing, and not thinking about the future at all.

accolay

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2273 on: February 22, 2017, 03:08:57 PM »
Another random piece of the puzzle the Trump administration can't figure out how to fit to complete the big picture.

What's the big picture, exactly?  I'm not even sure there is one.

For him, there is no big picture. But for the rest of us, you know, effective government. Equality for everyone. Fairness. Shit like that.

dividendman

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2274 on: February 22, 2017, 04:53:23 PM »
Another random piece of the puzzle the Trump administration can't figure out how to fit to complete the big picture.

What's the big picture, exactly?  I'm not even sure there is one.

For him, there is no big picture. But for the rest of us, you know, effective government. Equality for everyone. Fairness. Shit like that.

The fact that Trump doesn't have a clue of what to do shouldn't surprise anyone, especially his supporters, who apparently elected him because he doesn't know how to govern.

The worrisome part here is that the supposed leaders in Congress aren't doing anything either. They seem to be flailing about as much as Trump. Come on Ryan, McConnell, you guys passed SO MANY BILLS to repeal Obamacare, cut taxes (remember Paul Ryan's budget), etc. Now that you have the majorities and the Presidency, simply pass them again.... oh wait, those bills were ridiculous and you actually have no clue on what to do... got it.

The republicans in congress should get some balls and just pass all the stupid crap they passed when they had no chance of becoming laws due to the Obama veto and then see what happens.

What's hilarious is that the electorate that voted Congress in want to do exactly that, but Congress won't, because even they think passing the things they proposed earlier will be so detrimental that they'll have no chance of being re-elected. It's quite funny.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2275 on: February 22, 2017, 06:02:04 PM »
While some Democrats have Trump Derangement Syndrome, the Republicans have become so accustomed to behaving like the opposition party they have no idea what to do now that they have more power.

Metric Mouse

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2276 on: February 22, 2017, 06:19:13 PM »
While some Democrats have Trump Derangement Syndrome, the Republicans have become so accustomed to behaving like the opposition party they have no idea what to do now that they have more power.
I think that's hard to say a month into them having power. Certainly this seems to be true with the ACA repeal, and perhaps other action items, but its not as if nothing on their docket had been accomplished.

dividendman

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2277 on: February 22, 2017, 06:33:16 PM »
While some Democrats have Trump Derangement Syndrome, the Republicans have become so accustomed to behaving like the opposition party they have no idea what to do now that they have more power.
I think that's hard to say a month into them having power. Certainly this seems to be true with the ACA repeal, and perhaps other action items, but its not as if nothing on their docket had been accomplished.

The Congress has been in power for more than almost two months (January 3rd for the 115th Congress). They also knew they were going to be in power since Nov. 2016.
Finally, they have also had power over the House for 6 years where they have passed many bills on all sorts of topics only to have them die in the Senate or be vetoed by the President. So, it's not like they have to craft a bunch of legislation from scratch. Simply pull up those bills and start passing them. This can be done in the House very easily, why haven't they done so? The House isn't doing any confirmation hearings.
« Last Edit: February 22, 2017, 06:58:03 PM by dividendman »

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2278 on: February 22, 2017, 06:39:07 PM »
Regarding ACA: it has been the Worst Thing Ever for many years now yet I've only heard confusion come from the ranks of the Republicans on what will be done with it. But maybe I'm under-informed on what's actually going on and the process for legislative prioritization.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2279 on: February 22, 2017, 08:25:15 PM »
While some Democrats have Trump Derangement Syndrome, the Republicans have become so accustomed to behaving like the opposition party they have no idea what to do now that they have more power.
I think that's hard to say a month into them having power. Certainly this seems to be true with the ACA repeal, and perhaps other action items, but its not as if nothing on their docket had been accomplished.

The Congress has been in power for more than almost two months (January 3rd for the 115th Congress). They also knew they were going to be in power since Nov. 2016.
Finally, they have also had power over the House for 6 years where they have passed many bills on all sorts of topics only to have them die in the Senate or be vetoed by the President. So, it's not like they have to craft a bunch of legislation from scratch. Simply pull up those bills and start passing them. This can be done in the House very easily, why haven't they done so? The House isn't doing any confirmation hearings.
This is a good point.  It's not like Trump is going to veto anything, so there should be a flurry of pent-up activity by now.

My theory is that the government has become almost 100% dysfunctional.  Trump, like a bag of sand, has managed to pit every member of every branch against each other and the gears are grinding.  How does a duly elected politician please one's constituents when the President does things that have never been done before but is (self professedly) granting the wishes of the populace?  Do you stand behind him, knowing he's full of 'alternative facts' or do you stand up to him and risk being on the wrong side of (at least short run) history?
« Last Edit: February 22, 2017, 08:41:43 PM by EscapeVelocity2020 »

sol

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2280 on: February 22, 2017, 08:50:54 PM »
do you stand up to him and risk being on the wrong side of (at least short run) history?

I don't think anyone who stands up to Trump has to worry about ending up on the wrong side of history.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2281 on: February 22, 2017, 09:30:48 PM »
do you stand up to him and risk being on the wrong side of (at least short run) history?

I don't think anyone who stands up to Trump has to worry about ending up on the wrong side of history.

But I also wonder if Mattis, McMaster, Brennan, and many others 'in the know' are freaking out about how to end up 'on the right side' of history.  Government was designed in a time when being terribly complicated and slow moving was an asset.  Nowadays, 4 years could mean the rise of entirely new technologies (game changers in artificial intelligence, war, communications, genetics, longevity, renewable energy, 'incurable' diseases, human physical or mental enhancement...).

So maybe Trump was a mistake, but he may be the last mistake because he has unleashed an unstoppable force (increased benefits to achieve our own interests, reduced politics, or the perception of no manufactured hindrance) against an immovable object (America's status quo).

radram

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2282 on: February 23, 2017, 05:53:30 AM »
I think that's hard to say a month into them having power. Certainly this seems to be true with the ACA repeal, and perhaps other action items, but its not as if nothing on their docket had been accomplished.

Their job is to pass laws to get to the other chamber to also pass for the signature or veto of the president. To my knowledge, neither chamber has passed a single bill. Isn't that the very definition of nothing being accomplished?

jim555

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2283 on: February 23, 2017, 06:08:39 AM »
I think that's hard to say a month into them having power. Certainly this seems to be true with the ACA repeal, and perhaps other action items, but its not as if nothing on their docket had been accomplished.

Their job is to pass laws to get to the other chamber to also pass for the signature or veto of the president. To my knowledge, neither chamber has passed a single bill. Isn't that the very definition of nothing being accomplished?

Executive orders are easy, actually working with congress is the hard part.  Will be fun to watch.

Johnez

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2284 on: February 23, 2017, 08:17:34 AM »
Anyone come to the conclusion that the immigration deal is simply the wedge issue of the moment to keep the press occupied? I just can't believe Trump came back with a WORSE proposal. It's a win-win-win for him. Promise fulfilled, press hammers futility, supporters happy/detractors angry and distracted. He gets to look good and look like he's trying even if he fails. It's probably even better if he fails! He doesn't have to deal with the repercussions of his bans or mass deportations. When his administration goes to shit, his excuse is lined up.

I want to see more of the Russian connection!
Figure out ACA alternative!
Where the fawk are his tax returns? He is hiding something!

golden1

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2285 on: February 23, 2017, 08:21:50 AM »
Quote
Do you stand behind him, knowing he's full of 'alternative facts' or do you stand up to him and risk being on the wrong side of (at least short run) history?

It's a bit more complicated than that probably.  Do you quit and preserve your own reputation, or do you stay and try to minimize the harm that he could do?  If everyone who is competent quits, it leaves a skeleton crew of toadies who will just bow to his every whim. 

accolay

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2286 on: February 23, 2017, 08:30:25 AM »
Anyone come to the conclusion that the immigration deal is simply the wedge issue of the moment to keep the press occupied?

Trump is a compulsive (pathological?) liar (sociopath?) and fabricates these distraction daily. Cause that's what liars do. And a lot of people fall for it.

There must be something pretty damning in those taxes...

sol

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2287 on: February 23, 2017, 08:44:04 AM »
There must be something pretty damning in those taxes...

I think that depends on what you call damning.  We already know he doesn't pay any income taxes.  That was shown by the one page that was leaked, and he confirmed it during the debates.  He's been using paper losses from his mismanaged real estate developments to offset income since the 1990s.  He said this makes him "smart".

We also know he doesn't make any charitable donations.  He admitted as much during the debate, and his foundation's books show what he hasn't made any personal contributions since 2005 or something.

And we already know that he's not really a multi-billionaire.  He's admitted as much on television.  His business income mostly comes from licensing his name to other companies, for a fee, and he has used today's low bond rates to convert his annual licensing payments into an assumed equivalent fortune.  Bond rates are extremely low, so a few million per year in licensing fees is "worth" billions of dollars, in the eyes of his accountant.  He doesn't actually own anything of value other than his name that is worth that much.

But those aren't even the real reason people want to see to see his taxes.  We already know that US banks stopped lending him money after his third bankruptcy, and that his corporate empire has been financed by foreign (mostly Russian) banks since then.  But his taxes returns would give some indication of exactly how much money he's been given, and thus how much leverage foreign (maybe state-owned) banks have over his personal fortunes.  That's the real reason I think his tax returns will come out eventually, as part of the investigation into Russian influence over the US political system.

Metric Mouse

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2288 on: February 23, 2017, 08:50:04 AM »
I think that's hard to say a month into them having power. Certainly this seems to be true with the ACA repeal, and perhaps other action items, but its not as if nothing on their docket had been accomplished.

Their job is to pass laws to get to the other chamber to also pass for the signature or veto of the president. To my knowledge, neither chamber has passed a single bill. Isn't that the very definition of nothing being accomplished?

Executive orders are easy, actually working with congress is the hard part.  Will be fun to watch.
We have had this for the past 6 years. I don't find it fun anymore.

Midwest

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2289 on: February 23, 2017, 08:56:34 AM »
There must be something pretty damning in those taxes...

But his taxes returns would give some indication of exactly how much money he's been given, and thus how much leverage foreign (maybe state-owned) banks have over his personal fortunes.  That's the real reason I think his tax returns will come out eventually, as part of the investigation into Russian influence over the US political system.

It is quite likely the majority of his business is held in partnerships or corporations.  Assuming that is the case and assuming they are pass-through entities, his personal return will have very limited information on his dealings with these entities. 

In order to truly understand the dealings you mention, you would need access to the tax returns and/or financial statements of the entities involved.  Has any president or candidate ever released records from those entities?  I realize there would be calls for him to release that next, but I'm not aware of a precedent for a release like that. 

I personally believe his personal returns show large losses which are embarrassing to Trump the businessman.  Although he has now acknowledged those losses, seeing them brings even more attention.

accolay

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2290 on: February 23, 2017, 09:00:11 AM »
There must be something pretty damning in those taxes...
But those aren't even the real reason people want to see to see his taxes.  We already know that US banks stopped lending him money after his third bankruptcy, and that his corporate empire has been financed by foreign (mostly Russian) banks since then.  But his taxes returns would give some indication of exactly how much money he's been given, and thus how much leverage foreign (maybe state-owned) banks have over his personal fortunes.  That's the real reason I think his tax returns will come out eventually, as part of the investigation into Russian influence over the US political system.

That's pretty much it, Sol. That would bar any US citizen from passing a background check for security clearance. Why does that guy get to know the secrets?

NoStacheOhio

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2291 on: February 23, 2017, 09:09:37 AM »
There must be something pretty damning in those taxes...
But those aren't even the real reason people want to see to see his taxes.  We already know that US banks stopped lending him money after his third bankruptcy, and that his corporate empire has been financed by foreign (mostly Russian) banks since then.  But his taxes returns would give some indication of exactly how much money he's been given, and thus how much leverage foreign (maybe state-owned) banks have over his personal fortunes.  That's the real reason I think his tax returns will come out eventually, as part of the investigation into Russian influence over the US political system.

That's pretty much it, Sol. That would bar any US citizen from passing a background check for security clearance. Why does that guy get to know the secrets?

Same reason Congresscritters do: they were elected.

Honestly, I don't have a problem with this aspect of it. I want my elected people to have the information, even if I don't like them.

DoubleDown

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2292 on: February 23, 2017, 09:43:03 AM »
In order to truly understand the dealings you mention, you would need access to the tax returns and/or financial statements of the entities involved.  Has any president or candidate ever released records from those entities?  I realize there would be calls for him to release that next, but I'm not aware of a precedent for a release like that. 

Looks like the Senate is already floating the possibility of issuing a subpoena for his tax records in the Russia probe:

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/susan-collins-subpoena-of-trump-tax-records-possible-in-russia-probe/ar-AAneDJ9?li=BBnbcA1

I'd be extremely surprised if there is not already a large scale FBI investigation underway into Trump's dealings. We already know his inner circle including Paul Manafort and Michael Flynn are under FBI investigation, and I imagine it is fairly broad and looking into the allegations of the "dossier" as well. I expect criminal indictments will eventually come out. My only question is to what extent will they be able to get Trump's (figurative) fingerprints in the whole affair? Will they be able to prove enough to indict Trump himself (assuming the smoke actually leads to fire)?

NoStacheOhio

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2293 on: February 23, 2017, 09:47:57 AM »
I expect criminal indictments will eventually come out. My only question is to what extent will they be able to get Trump's (figurative) fingerprints in the whole affair? Will they be able to prove enough to indict Trump himself (assuming the smoke actually leads to fire)?

I don't even care if he gets indicted, just pushing him and his cronies out is good enough.

dividendman

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2294 on: February 23, 2017, 09:54:27 AM »
I expect criminal indictments will eventually come out. My only question is to what extent will they be able to get Trump's (figurative) fingerprints in the whole affair? Will they be able to prove enough to indict Trump himself (assuming the smoke actually leads to fire)?

I don't even care if he gets indicted, just pushing him and his cronies out is good enough.

I thought that too at first... but for some reason I think Pence would be worse.

Johnez

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2295 on: February 23, 2017, 09:56:37 AM »

That's pretty much it, Sol. That would bar any US citizen from passing a background check for security clearance. Why does that guy get to know the secrets?

Same reason Congresscritters do: they were elected.

Honestly, I don't have a problem with this aspect of it. I want my elected people to have the information, even if I don't like them.

It's not about liking a politician, it's about judgement. Being deep in debt and who you are in debt has an impact on decision-making. Having loans to cover and tryin to avoid embarrassment have people doing strange things, often risky things.

Midwest

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2296 on: February 23, 2017, 10:13:59 AM »
In order to truly understand the dealings you mention, you would need access to the tax returns and/or financial statements of the entities involved.  Has any president or candidate ever released records from those entities?  I realize there would be calls for him to release that next, but I'm not aware of a precedent for a release like that. 

Looks like the Senate is already floating the possibility of issuing a subpoena for his tax records in the Russia probe:

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/susan-collins-subpoena-of-trump-tax-records-possible-in-russia-probe/ar-AAneDJ9?li=BBnbcA1

I'd be extremely surprised if there is not already a large scale FBI investigation underway into Trump's dealings.

There have been calls for quite some time now for Trump to release his personal taxes.  My comment was regarding the limited information into his personal taxes.

If tax records are obtained via a subpoena or some legal mechanism, I suspect they would it be broad enough to cover some the of entities he has been involved in.  If entity records are obtained they would certainly shed some light on the situation.  That's a completely different animal, however, from the calls to release his personal taxes.

NoStacheOhio

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2297 on: February 23, 2017, 10:14:50 AM »

That's pretty much it, Sol. That would bar any US citizen from passing a background check for security clearance. Why does that guy get to know the secrets?

Same reason Congresscritters do: they were elected.

Honestly, I don't have a problem with this aspect of it. I want my elected people to have the information, even if I don't like them.

It's not about liking a politician, it's about judgement. Being deep in debt and who you are in debt has an impact on decision-making. Having loans to cover and tryin to avoid embarrassment have people doing strange things, often risky things.

Absolutely, I was making a more general point about elected officials. Basically, even if I don't like/trust someone in office, I still want them to know the secrets because they were elected, and represent their constituents (theoretically).

Lagom

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2298 on: February 23, 2017, 10:35:30 AM »
In order to truly understand the dealings you mention, you would need access to the tax returns and/or financial statements of the entities involved.  Has any president or candidate ever released records from those entities?  I realize there would be calls for him to release that next, but I'm not aware of a precedent for a release like that. 

Looks like the Senate is already floating the possibility of issuing a subpoena for his tax records in the Russia probe:

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/susan-collins-subpoena-of-trump-tax-records-possible-in-russia-probe/ar-AAneDJ9?li=BBnbcA1

I'd be extremely surprised if there is not already a large scale FBI investigation underway into Trump's dealings. We already know his inner circle including Paul Manafort and Michael Flynn are under FBI investigation, and I imagine it is fairly broad and looking into the allegations of the "dossier" as well. I expect criminal indictments will eventually come out. My only question is to what extent will they be able to get Trump's (figurative) fingerprints in the whole affair? Will they be able to prove enough to indict Trump himself (assuming the smoke actually leads to fire)?

Wasn't there a large faction in the FBI that was accused of showing inappropriate favoritism towards Trump with the whole HRC email fiasco? Whatever happened with that anyway? Just a conspiracy theory over the actions of Comey/a few malcontents, or was there substance there?

I've read a few op-eds proposing that the main "dirt" Russia has on Trump are his tax/financial records. This may be assigning a little too much importance to the fragility of Trump's ego, but the lengths to which he has gone to hide that information suggests that he reeeaaally doesn't want us to know it. I wonder if the reveal will live up to the hype.

Metric Mouse

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2299 on: February 23, 2017, 11:15:00 AM »
In order to truly understand the dealings you mention, you would need access to the tax returns and/or financial statements of the entities involved.  Has any president or candidate ever released records from those entities?  I realize there would be calls for him to release that next, but I'm not aware of a precedent for a release like that. 

Looks like the Senate is already floating the possibility of issuing a subpoena for his tax records in the Russia probe:

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/susan-collins-subpoena-of-trump-tax-records-possible-in-russia-probe/ar-AAneDJ9?li=BBnbcA1

I'd be extremely surprised if there is not already a large scale FBI investigation underway into Trump's dealings. We already know his inner circle including Paul Manafort and Michael Flynn are under FBI investigation, and I imagine it is fairly broad and looking into the allegations of the "dossier" as well. I expect criminal indictments will eventually come out. My only question is to what extent will they be able to get Trump's (figurative) fingerprints in the whole affair? Will they be able to prove enough to indict Trump himself (assuming the smoke actually leads to fire)?
I doubt that there will be clear enough evidence to indict him. The best I would hope for is that there is enough dirt that the republicans decide to remove him from office, settling for another Republican at the helm. I can't really imagine this would be hard to figure out, eother ; how hard is it to call up the IRS and say "Does Trump take money from Russia? Ok, how much? Thanks." I mean, the Irs should know, he must be audited regulalrly with the size and complexity of his income.