Author Topic: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?  (Read 387307 times)

disconneked

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2200 on: February 18, 2017, 10:19:32 PM »
I think to myself "there are a lot of people critical of Trump on this thread, and I bet they have intelligent, interesting opinions about which of his executive actions are unconstitutional". I ask my question. Then I'm told incredulously (Dragoncar) that the immigration order is unconstitutional as if that's just supposed to be obvious. After that, Nereo says that nothing is unconstitutional until the court issues a final decision. That's absurd, but whatever, I agrue that Nereo is wrong about this. So then I'm told (waltworks) that no constitutional issue is ever clear, because the whole constitution is as hard to interpret as the second amendment. Finally, dividend man suggests that my question is somehow unclear.

Dudes, nevermind, I withdraw the question.

Mr. Dude,
This forum is very opinionated and mostly polarized left. Understand this man, and you will find peace.

The President did have the authority for the travel ban. (like one judge in Washington should shutdown a nationwide order because of what will effect Washington, and all for "rights" of non-citizens.) National security is being politicized and turned into a clown show. The fact is we are a deeply divided country. Not too far from civil war but not there yet either. You see the video footage of that guy that pulled out an AR15 to take a Trump flag off of someones truck-- yeah like thats okay. I don't advertise my Trumpness in public but I'm ready to shoot. I'm team red.

disconneked

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2201 on: February 18, 2017, 10:46:29 PM »
See it right here: https://youtu.be/OzeTZSEesXY?t=7s

Its all fun and game till AR-15s get involved. This is not an isolated incident either.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2202 on: February 18, 2017, 11:10:31 PM »
It's sad to be relieved that Trump is back to harmless campaigning and not trying to do anything Presidential like talking to foreign leaders.  Maybe he'll stay out of Washington all week and the people who do real work and have real jobs can not be distracted, defeated, and disappointed by Trump's terrifying news conferences and meetings.  He's not a politician, but now that the novelty has worn off, that's turning out to be a real problem.

Going back to my original point before all of the weirdness, the country did want an outsider, but also expects some return on investment.  Why can't Trump channel some of his non-politician, outside businessman freedom to crowdsource his next initiative.  Most successful CEOs are amazing people that take a little time and then come back with great ideas.  How cool would it be if there were some 'help me with a good answer to xx policy (border security, dealing with terror, Wall Street reform) online / social media interaction.  Americans would feel represented if it didn't come down to electing one person, and then having all of the BS of faux-representing the majority thrown in our face (and bizarrely, dishonestly, then repeatedly lying about it).  Trump should leverage his team and willing help, not 'enjoy' confronting the world in some bombastic media event, which he then bizarrely denounces as being fake.

Trump is increasingly the party of the 0.1%.  How did we get to this point, maybe some misguided hope and optimism?  But why are we stuck here?

Lagom

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2203 on: February 18, 2017, 11:13:23 PM »
I think to myself "there are a lot of people critical of Trump on this thread, and I bet they have intelligent, interesting opinions about which of his executive actions are unconstitutional". I ask my question. Then I'm told incredulously (Dragoncar) that the immigration order is unconstitutional as if that's just supposed to be obvious. After that, Nereo says that nothing is unconstitutional until the court issues a final decision. That's absurd, but whatever, I agrue that Nereo is wrong about this. So then I'm told (waltworks) that no constitutional issue is ever clear, because the whole constitution is as hard to interpret as the second amendment. Finally, dividend man suggests that my question is somehow unclear.

Dudes, nevermind, I withdraw the question.

Mr. Dude,
This forum is very opinionated and mostly polarized left. Understand this man, and you will find peace.

The President did have the authority for the travel ban. (like one judge in Washington should shutdown a nationwide order because of what will effect Washington, and all for "rights" of non-citizens.) National security is being politicized and turned into a clown show. The fact is we are a deeply divided country. Not too far from civil war but not there yet either. You see the video footage of that guy that pulled out an AR15 to take a Trump flag off of someones truck-- yeah like thats okay. I don't advertise my Trumpness in public but I'm ready to shoot. I'm team red.

Hai troll! <waves>

sol

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2204 on: February 18, 2017, 11:28:04 PM »
Hai troll! <waves>

I'd like to believe that not every poster who comes here praising Donald Trump is a troll.  But so far, those folks have offered very little substance to any debate about Trump, and lots of lots of silly lies and faux anger. 

Are there any Trump supporters here would like to offer a reasoned defense of the current administration?  Because thus far, all I see is a long series of fuck-ups.

Millions of people voted for Trump because they thought he would bring back their jobs.  Unemployment was already down to 5% when he took office and may even continue to improve slowly, but Trump can't really bring back small town manufacturing jobs.  He blamed Mexicans for our economy, which is actually pretty strong right now, without recognizing the vital role that immigration plays in keeping our economy growing (since Americans don't breed fast enough to grow their population own their own).  He openly insults our allies abroad while signalling he wants to upset standing alliances.  He claims to want law and order, but then signs blatantly unconstitutional executive orders.  He keeps telling us about he has "the best people" but his staff keeps getting fired and his appointees keep getting rejected for lacking basic qualifications.  I just don't see how he's delivered on any of his campaign promises that minority of the country that actually voted for him.  Quite the contrary, it looks like he's sticking his finger in their eye even more forcefully than he's trying to stick it to liberals.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2205 on: February 18, 2017, 11:48:43 PM »
Hai troll! <waves>

I'd like to believe that not every poster who comes here praising Donald Trump is a troll.  But so far, those folks have offered very little substance to any debate about Trump, and lots of lots of silly lies and faux anger. 

Are there any Trump supporters here would like to offer a reasoned defense of the current administration?  Because thus far, all I see is a long series of fuck-ups.

Millions of people voted for Trump because they thought he would bring back their jobs.  Unemployment was already down to 5% when he took office and may even continue to improve slowly, but Trump can't really bring back small town manufacturing jobs.  He blamed Mexicans for our economy, which is actually pretty strong right now, without recognizing the vital role that immigration plays in keeping our economy growing (since Americans don't breed fast enough to grow their population own their own).  He openly insults our allies abroad while signalling he wants to upset standing alliances.  He claims to want law and order, but then signs blatantly unconstitutional executive orders.  He keeps telling us about he has "the best people" but his staff keeps getting fired and his appointees keep getting rejected for lacking basic qualifications.  I just don't see how he's delivered on any of his campaign promises that minority of the country that actually voted for him.  Quite the contrary, it looks like he's sticking his finger in their eye even more forcefully than he's trying to stick it to liberals.

Trust me Sol, Trump support has distilled down to the dregs.  We are at the point where even Trump has to call out 'dishonest media' in light of the fact they are just reporting video footage of his own statements and inability to craft real, consistent, coherent policy.  I'm not really sure where it goes from here, but you really don't want to hear from the remaining Trump blind support crowd.  Beating your head against a wall might actually result in more satisfying progress.

dragoncar

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2206 on: February 19, 2017, 12:12:14 AM »
I think to myself "there are a lot of people critical of Trump on this thread, and I bet they have intelligent, interesting opinions about which of his executive actions are unconstitutional". I ask my question. Then I'm told incredulously (Dragoncar) that the immigration order is unconstitutional as if that's just supposed to be obvious. After that, Nereo says that nothing is unconstitutional until the court issues a final decision. That's absurd, but whatever, I agrue that Nereo is wrong about this. So then I'm told (waltworks) that no constitutional issue is ever clear, because the whole constitution is as hard to interpret as the second amendment. Finally, dividend man suggests that my question is somehow unclear.

Dudes, nevermind, I withdraw the question.

Well I answered your question and if you are curious about the reasoning you can read the Actual court opinions.  Sorry if I'm misunderstanding you but is that not enough to satisfy your curiosity?

Edit: here's one, enjoy http://cdn.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastore/opinions/2017/02/09/17-35105.pdf
« Last Edit: February 19, 2017, 12:14:43 AM by dragoncar »

Lagom

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2207 on: February 19, 2017, 12:19:57 AM »
Hai troll! <waves>

I'd like to believe that not every poster who comes here praising Donald Trump is a troll.  But so far, those folks have offered very little substance to any debate about Trump, and lots of lots of silly lies and faux anger. 

Are there any Trump supporters here would like to offer a reasoned defense of the current administration?  Because thus far, all I see is a long series of fuck-ups.

Millions of people voted for Trump because they thought he would bring back their jobs.  Unemployment was already down to 5% when he took office and may even continue to improve slowly, but Trump can't really bring back small town manufacturing jobs.  He blamed Mexicans for our economy, which is actually pretty strong right now, without recognizing the vital role that immigration plays in keeping our economy growing (since Americans don't breed fast enough to grow their population own their own).  He openly insults our allies abroad while signalling he wants to upset standing alliances.  He claims to want law and order, but then signs blatantly unconstitutional executive orders.  He keeps telling us about he has "the best people" but his staff keeps getting fired and his appointees keep getting rejected for lacking basic qualifications.  I just don't see how he's delivered on any of his campaign promises that minority of the country that actually voted for him.  Quite the contrary, it looks like he's sticking his finger in their eye even more forcefully than he's trying to stick it to liberals.

I don't think they all are. I think most aren't, actually, but the non trolls take so much offense at being associated with such that they tend to dig in, or more commonly, shove their heads further into the sand. It is one of my own flaws that I can't help but condescendingly and sarcastically remark on their troll-like associations, most likely making it less likely they will change their views. Not my finest quality, I fully admit. I just hope they at least take some small consolation in the fact that I have just as much frustration and disdain for the liberals out there who think the DNC will save us all.

former player

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2208 on: February 19, 2017, 02:02:01 AM »
See it right here: https://youtu.be/OzeTZSEesXY?t=7s

Its all fun and game till AR-15s get involved. This is not an isolated incident either.
The gentleman in that video is exercising his constitutional rights of free speech and to bear arms.  Why should exercising those rights be isolated incidents?

Malaysia41

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2209 on: February 19, 2017, 03:52:28 AM »
...

All I said is he is spending tax payer money on this stuff at a dramatically higher rate than any previous president (true). That his family is personally profiting from these expenses (true). And that he is undeniably a hypocrite given his past comments about Obama (true). Finally, I noted that Trump supporters repeatedly brush even the most minor of criticisms (which I admit this is) by saying things like "he's no worse than Obama" (also true--that they make this statement, that is).

The only debatable thing I said was that he's behaving unethically, which still is not a strawman because I in no way leveraged that argument to make a more sweeping claim.

His family personally profiting from POTUS travel expenses is glaringly BAD, UNETHICAL and UNACCEPTABLE.  I cannot believe his ostensibly conservative, fiscally hawkish supporters are brushing off this behavior as if it's no big deal.

All I can figure is that we are so divided, that they've come to believe that the 'other side' plays dirty tricks/acts unethically, so that justifies unethical behavior from people on their own team.

Fuck these teams. They are dehumanizing. They are turning us into uncritical, unthinking idiots.
 
Take my dad, for example. Previously a rational person, his brain is that of a political zombie. He doesn't see anything wrong with Trump Corp profiting off of the US taxpayer, nor the 10x expenditures in comparison to Obama. OMG if Obama owned a hotel, and profited personally from the travel of secret service members in his hotel - my dad would go apeshit crazy over it. I remember him getting angry about Obama spending his money on a round of golf. But somehow Trump profiting off of his tax dollars is okay. 

The fact that people give this behavior a pass is baffling and infuriating. We should hold ourselves, and our elected officials to a higher standard. I still blame the privately funded two party system. Until we fix that, we will either continue to elect these ass hats, or see the end of our great country in our own lifetimes.

 

« Last Edit: February 19, 2017, 03:54:46 AM by Malaysia41 »

nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2210 on: February 19, 2017, 04:37:42 AM »
I think to myself "there are a lot of people critical of Trump on this thread, and I bet they have intelligent, interesting opinions about which of his executive actions are unconstitutional". I ask my question. Then I'm told incredulously (Dragoncar) that the immigration order is unconstitutional as if that's just supposed to be obvious. After that, Nereo says that nothing is unconstitutional until the court issues a final decision. That's absurd, but whatever, I agrue that Nereo is wrong about this. So then I'm told (waltworks) that no constitutional issue is ever clear, because the whole constitution is as hard to interpret as the second amendment. Finally, dividend man suggests that my question is somehow unclear.


I'll speak just for myself on this - I never said (or even inferred) that the constitutionality of a law, order, etc is not decided until the courts make a decision. That's absurd - most laws are mundane little tweaks that never get put in front of the court because people overwhelmingly believe they are constitutional.

My point - which I think you misinterpreted - is that the courts get to have the final say about whether a law is constitutional. If an action is ruled unconstitutional, that's it... up until and if a ruling from a higher court (or a different supreme court) rules otherwise, OR until the constitution is amended.

NONE of this is to suggest that an unconstitutional law is somehow constitutional until the courts make their ruling.  Should a court strike down a law it was never constitutional to begin with.  I think that is what you are getting at here - what has DJT and his administration done that is obviously unconstitutional and that will eventually be reversed in the courts or die simply because its reversed and no longer in play.  IMO the EO ban is in this category. 

nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2211 on: February 19, 2017, 04:46:45 AM »
See it right here: https://youtu.be/OzeTZSEesXY?t=7s

Its all fun and game till AR-15s get involved. This is not an isolated incident either.
The gentleman in that video is exercising his constitutional rights of free speech and to bear arms.  Why should exercising those rights be isolated incidents?

I can only hope and guess that you are being sarcastic here former player.  The video is a textbook case for robbery.  Robbery is the crime of taking or attempting to take anything of value by force, threat of force or by putting the victim in fear. At common law, robbery is defined as taking the property of another, with the intent to permanently deprive the person of that property, by means of force or fear.

In the video the gentleman clearly i) took the property of another without permission ii) with the intent to permanently deprive iii) by force (he was holding a firearm are and kept repeating "what are you going to do about it... nothing".

Sydneystache

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2212 on: February 19, 2017, 04:57:53 AM »
#SwedenIncident

Really wish it were ABBA or IKEA...but no...

#TrumpDiplomacy

nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2213 on: February 19, 2017, 05:05:04 AM »
It seems the game plan is:
Step 1: yuuge tax cuts
Step 2: increase defense spending to defeat ISIS, ICE funding to defeat illegal immigrants
Step 3: blame sad democrats (and lying media) for deficits that libertarians point out
Step 4: defund government agencies that regulate stuff
Step 5: win mid-terms because now we are safe
Probably not far off, but you forgot:
Step 6: suffer countless strings of environmental disasters because no one was regulating
Step 7: economy tanks when super-bubble pops from financial sector taking ridiculous risks while no one was watching
Step 8: enter new quagmire because super-beefed up military needs to be used, right?
Step 9: corruption on a new scale for America result from undisclosed conflict of interests.

Actually, i'm not sure the exact order of 6, 7, 8, & 9 but I"m pretty sure all will come to pass in one form or another over the next 4 years.
#3 and #4 are already happening, no?

#6 will happen regardless of regulations... Exxon Valdez, BP etc... these happen because people make inherently stupid decisions, or decisions based on maximising greed / profit and are willing to take the risk. Regulation doesn't stop people from crossing lines, otherwise there'd be no need for police & courts.

#7 will play out during Trump's second term or after he leaves office. Remember the GFC played out over the course of 2 years from August 2007 to mid 2009... and even then when sharemarkets recovered there was talk of a double dip for a few years afterwards until 2012.

#8... well yeah... you guys do seem to love being in wars perpetually... Nam, Korea, Gulf, Afghanistan, Iraq to name only the most well known ones. We tag along on it all too.
re #4: nothing has been defunded as of yet.  New hires have been frozen, but that's not unique to this administration (Carter and Reagan did similar blanket freezes, both of which are considered a fiscal bust in retrospect). DJT has also ordered the focus of certain agencies to be realigned, but again that is nothing new.  Only Congress can defund - and that will be a raucous debate I'm sure.

Re #6: NO! the whole point of regulations is to deter an individual or corporation from doing something we see as "bad". In most cases corporations follow regulations, especially if there's a fiscal penalty to be paid for not doing so. Are they followed 100%? of course not.  But I firmly believe easing up on regulations will lead to companies taking on more risk, and as is the case with risk sometimes those turn south.

Re #7: it's been 8 long years since we exited the last (great!) recession, which is already longer than the median time between recessions of ~7 years.  It will be historic if we somehow go 4 more years with no recession.  Will the next one be triggered by the popping of an economic bubble?  maybe yes, maybe no - but several of our most recent recessions have gone this route.  Will DJT actually be to blame?  well that's one we can't ever prove and people will argue with for eons. As usual the caveat applies that a president gets too much credit when the economy improves and too much blame when it tanks, unless it's Obama

Re #8:  see you there!

KBecks

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2214 on: February 19, 2017, 06:06:34 AM »
So... republicans have the Congress and the Presidency... shouldn't one impact of this be some fuckin' tax cuts? Where are my tax cuts. They always talk about tax cuts. Can we have some tax cuts?

It's only been a few weeks. 

former player

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2215 on: February 19, 2017, 06:08:32 AM »
See it right here: https://youtu.be/OzeTZSEesXY?t=7s

Its all fun and game till AR-15s get involved. This is not an isolated incident either.
The gentleman in that video is exercising his constitutional rights of free speech and to bear arms.  Why should exercising those rights be isolated incidents?

I can only hope and guess that you are being sarcastic here former player.  The video is a textbook case for robbery.  Robbery is the crime of taking or attempting to take anything of value by force, threat of force or by putting the victim in fear. At common law, robbery is defined as taking the property of another, with the intent to permanently deprive the person of that property, by means of force or fear.

In the video the gentleman clearly i) took the property of another without permission ii) with the intent to permanently deprive iii) by force (he was holding a firearm are and kept repeating "what are you going to do about it... nothing".
I didn't see any robbery or intent to permanently deprive.  I would probably agree to criminal damage, based on the tearing sound.
There is no proof that the driver was still in earshot when the gun came out, and the gun was not pointed at anyone but held safely pointing down, so I can't agree to the "force" argument.

Was I being sarcastic?  The video referenced is the logical consequence of the constitutional rights so passionately defended by many in the US: people, including people you may not like, can have the right to carry guns in the street and have the right to shout whatever they like that is not a criminal threat.  If you defend those rights, you also have to defend the exercise of them as demonstrated in that video.

gaja

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2216 on: February 19, 2017, 06:12:31 AM »
#SwedenIncident

Really wish it were ABBA or IKEA...but no...

#TrumpDiplomacy

We are all combing through the newspapers trying to understand what happened in Sweden on Friday. So far, the best theories are:
-He misheard Sehwan (in Pakistan) for Sweden. http://indianexpress.com/article/world/pakistan-sehwan-attack-dead-islamic-state-injured-in-terrorist-attack-shrine-4529321/
-He heard about the moose raping a wooden statue, and thought it was a muslim that did it (photo #6): http://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/Vn17J/in-english-this-happened-in-sweden-friday-night-mr-president

KBecks

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2217 on: February 19, 2017, 06:34:58 AM »
See it right here: https://youtu.be/OzeTZSEesXY?t=7s

Its all fun and game till AR-15s get involved. This is not an isolated incident either.
The gentleman in that video is exercising his constitutional rights of free speech and to bear arms.  Why should exercising those rights be isolated incidents?

I can only hope and guess that you are being sarcastic here former player.  The video is a textbook case for robbery.  Robbery is the crime of taking or attempting to take anything of value by force, threat of force or by putting the victim in fear. At common law, robbery is defined as taking the property of another, with the intent to permanently deprive the person of that property, by means of force or fear.

In the video the gentleman clearly i) took the property of another without permission ii) with the intent to permanently deprive iii) by force (he was holding a firearm are and kept repeating "what are you going to do about it... nothing".
I didn't see any robbery or intent to permanently deprive.  I would probably agree to criminal damage, based on the tearing sound.
There is no proof that the driver was still in earshot when the gun came out, and the gun was not pointed at anyone but held safely pointing down, so I can't agree to the "force" argument.

Was I being sarcastic?  The video referenced is the logical consequence of the constitutional rights so passionately defended by many in the US: people, including people you may not like, can have the right to carry guns in the street and have the right to shout whatever they like that is not a criminal threat.  If you defend those rights, you also have to defend the exercise of them as demonstrated in that video.

Watched the video and I don't know the gun laws in that location, so no comment on the weapon.  But I do not see theft and I do not see intent to kill the man. 

So yes, he is just being angry in this video.  If he moved towards another person with that gun and yelling threats, that is another story altogether.

Hopefully this kind of thing is uncommon, because it is dangerous, it is dangerous especially for the man holding the weapon, because his actions and intent could be easily misunderstood.

I stopped putting political bumper stickers on my vehicles years ago, and I will never do so again in my life, exactly because of this kind of situation.

iris lily

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2218 on: February 19, 2017, 07:54:23 AM »
Do any of you think that some of Trump's executive actions have been clearly unconstitutional? If so, I'm curious which ones. I've thought that some of them are borderline, but that none are just obviously an overreach. But I'm not sure I've looked carefully at them all. This is one of the main areas that concerned me about Trump since the campaign, during which he said he'd violate the constitution in this way if necessary.
I didnt vote for Trump, but that doesnt mean I dislike all of his actions.

The executive order stopping immigration is likely unclear mstitutinal for those with legal status that allows them to live here (green fatds etc.) But when it comes to these constitutional questions, I am no legal scholar. And neither is anyone  (well, most) here.

dividendman

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2219 on: February 19, 2017, 08:13:54 AM »
So... republicans have the Congress and the Presidency... shouldn't one impact of this be some fuckin' tax cuts? Where are my tax cuts. They always talk about tax cuts. Can we have some tax cuts?

It's only been a few weeks.

Yeah, but Trump has spent days talking about and signing orders on all sorts of other issues. I'd like a few days spend on him signing useless orders to instruct his staff to present a tax plan by the end of feb to congress.

I want to see that corp rate down to 15%!

jim555

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2220 on: February 19, 2017, 08:40:39 AM »
Will a Republican congress go along with massive tax cuts and huge new spending programs (infrastructure, wall)? 
If they do they are all talk and no action on fiscal responsibility.  Republicans always do one thing, balloon the deficit.

Kris

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2221 on: February 19, 2017, 09:08:40 AM »
This is long, and could use an edit, but it explains some things about Trump's supporters and how we got here that I haven't seen explained anywhere else.

https://medium.com/@DaleBeran/4chan-the-skeleton-key-to-the-rise-of-trump-624e7cb798cb#.mrh2wqub2

bacchi

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2222 on: February 19, 2017, 09:28:49 AM »
Will a Republican congress go along with massive tax cuts and huge new spending programs (infrastructure, wall)? 

Does a bear shit in the woods?

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2223 on: February 19, 2017, 09:55:38 AM »
Will a Republican congress go along with massive tax cuts and huge new spending programs (infrastructure, wall)? 
If they do they are all talk and no action on fiscal responsibility.  Republicans always do one thing, balloon the deficit.
If there is one thing politicians have gotten away with over the last decade and a half, it's justifying deficit spending.

sol

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2224 on: February 19, 2017, 11:58:49 AM »
This is long, and could use an edit, but it explains some things about Trump's supporters and how we got here that I haven't seen explained anywhere else.

https://medium.com/@DaleBeran/4chan-the-skeleton-key-to-the-rise-of-trump-624e7cb798cb#.mrh2wqub2

That's a fascinating read.  Short version:  we're all being trolled.

Basically, he argues that in addition to the two primary Trump demographics (people nostalgic for the 50s and the corporatist onepercenters who recognize he's a fraud but still want short term profits) there is a third and larger group of supporters, consisting of disaffected young men who have embraced their own loserdom pepe-the-frog style and now celebrate the fact that the whole system is rigged.  He says this group of people thrives on misogyny (gamergate) and their epic fail status (mom's basement) and supports Trump as the embodiment of their hopeless condition, a symbol of all that is wrong with the world and a giant middle finger to the liberal ideals that might otherwise have saved them if they didn't feel so trapped.

I'm not sure he offers much in the way of solutions, but it's a perspective that certainly does explain a lot of different things in recent cultural history, all tied together neatly in a way that probably makes a lot of sense to you, if you (like me) spend too much time on the internet.

There's a little diversion toward the end about feminism.  These basement-dwelling self-proclaimed losers feel trapped, because they don't fit into the 1950s style ideal of masculinity (wealth brings a family and stability) or the 1960s/70s ideal of masculinity (wealth brings a playboy pad and lots of sex) or even the counterculture Dharma bum ideal of masculinity (you don't need wealth to be happy and have lots of sex).  They have completely failed with women IRL, and so now must blame women as the source of their problems.  This is why they attack "social justice warriors" and other perceived proponents of liberalism, which has attempted to deconstruct the ideal of masculinity and offer people validity regardless of their gender-binary choices.  Except to the pepe-the-frog crowd, this is just telling them that their problems don't exist.  They're so trapped in their own gender-norms that they can't see a way out, and now lash out blindly at everything including the very movements that are trying to help them (e.g Bernie Sanders).

There are a few other interesting ideas in that article, for anyone who wants to dig into them.  I'm still thinking about the proposed transition away from left/right politics to insider/outsider politics, which the alt-right seems to be winning right now.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2225 on: February 19, 2017, 12:22:08 PM »
#SwedenIncident

Really wish it were ABBA or IKEA...but no...

#TrumpDiplomacy

We are all combing through the newspapers trying to understand what happened in Sweden on Friday. So far, the best theories are:
-He misheard Sehwan (in Pakistan) for Sweden. http://indianexpress.com/article/world/pakistan-sehwan-attack-dead-islamic-state-injured-in-terrorist-attack-shrine-4529321/
-He heard about the moose raping a wooden statue, and thought it was a muslim that did it (photo #6): http://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/Vn17J/in-english-this-happened-in-sweden-friday-night-mr-president
One thing I love about this story is that the Swedish government circulates its Twitter account @Sweden around its citizens, so a Swedish school librarian was on twitter duty when the story broke and was able to reassure the world that the biggest thing happening in Sweden on Friday was selecting their song for Eurovision -  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39020962

Swedes 1 Turnip 0.

bacchi

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2226 on: February 19, 2017, 01:46:16 PM »
That's a fascinating read.  Short version:  we're all being trolled.

Basically, he argues that in addition to the two primary Trump demographics (people nostalgic for the 50s and the corporatist onepercenters who recognize he's a fraud but still want short term profits) there is a third and larger group of supporters, consisting of disaffected young men who have embraced their own loserdom pepe-the-frog style and now celebrate the fact that the whole system is rigged.  He says this group of people thrives on misogyny (gamergate) and their epic fail status (mom's basement) and supports Trump as the embodiment of their hopeless condition, a symbol of all that is wrong with the world and a giant middle finger to the liberal ideals that might otherwise have saved them if they didn't feel so trapped.

Is the entire living-in-a-basement meme also a troll, though? I've worked with 4chan regulars in IT. Some do it for the lulz and some are full-on anime-loving, libertarian, angry young men, but one thing they aren't is losers, at least in the traditional sense. They have good salaries and nice cars and, like any good Millennial, eat out for every meal with their friends. They do feel the entire system is rigged, however.

The article feels a bit simplistic.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2227 on: February 19, 2017, 02:58:55 PM »
That's a fascinating read.  Short version:  we're all being trolled.

Basically, he argues that in addition to the two primary Trump demographics (people nostalgic for the 50s and the corporatist onepercenters who recognize he's a fraud but still want short term profits) there is a third and larger group of supporters, consisting of disaffected young men who have embraced their own loserdom pepe-the-frog style and now celebrate the fact that the whole system is rigged.  He says this group of people thrives on misogyny (gamergate) and their epic fail status (mom's basement) and supports Trump as the embodiment of their hopeless condition, a symbol of all that is wrong with the world and a giant middle finger to the liberal ideals that might otherwise have saved them if they didn't feel so trapped.

Is the entire living-in-a-basement meme also a troll, though? I've worked with 4chan regulars in IT. Some do it for the lulz and some are full-on anime-loving, libertarian, angry young men, but one thing they aren't is losers, at least in the traditional sense. They have good salaries and nice cars and, like any good Millennial, eat out for every meal with their friends. They do feel the entire system is rigged, however.

The article feels a bit simplistic.

The article made it seem to me like a cloche with a heavy kernel of truth.

Being a loser is in some cases a state of mind... or a sort of propison, as the author suggests.

I think it would be quite interesting if you were to ask your 4chan regular friends whether they support Trump.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2228 on: February 19, 2017, 03:05:04 PM »
I think it would be quite interesting if you were to ask your 4chan regular friends whether they support Trump.

And if so, why? 

We're talking about a big group of people here, so it's likely there are some people who live on 4chan who genuinely love Trump's racism and bigotry and who fly the confederate flag proudly because they like to frighten and intimidate black people.  And some people who have genuinely bought Trump's lie that he will bring blue collar manufacturing jobs back to America.  And some who, like this article suggests, recognize that he is a fraud and a liar and a turnip, and think that's really funny because like them he is always actively trying to piss people off "for the lulz."

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2229 on: February 19, 2017, 03:33:57 PM »
This is long, and could use an edit, but it explains some things about Trump's supporters and how we got here that I haven't seen explained anywhere else.

https://medium.com/@DaleBeran/4chan-the-skeleton-key-to-the-rise-of-trump-624e7cb798cb#.mrh2wqub2

Reminds me of a post I read, was a fascinating read a few weeks before the election:

https://pepethefrogfaith.wordpress.com

Found this off of Ran Prieur's website, that guy posts some off the wall stuff.

So many theories on the how and who of Trump's election. With regards to the 4-chan guys, I have a hard time envisioning this group of people going through the effort to actually vote for Trump. It simply doesn't provide the instant satisfaction that posting memes or communal reinforcement that the majority of their posts entail (SJW hate, etc.) Could be totally off here, I haven't visited in a while....


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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2230 on: February 19, 2017, 04:03:46 PM »
This is long, and could use an edit, but it explains some things about Trump's supporters and how we got here that I haven't seen explained anywhere else.

https://medium.com/@DaleBeran/4chan-the-skeleton-key-to-the-rise-of-trump-624e7cb798cb#.mrh2wqub2

Reminds me of a post I read, was a fascinating read a few weeks before the election:

https://pepethefrogfaith.wordpress.com

Found this off of Ran Prieur's website, that guy posts some off the wall stuff.

So many theories on the how and who of Trump's election. With regards to the 4-chan guys, I have a hard time envisioning this group of people going through the effort to actually vote for Trump. It simply doesn't provide the instant satisfaction that posting memes or communal reinforcement that the majority of their posts entail (SJW hate, etc.) Could be totally off here, I haven't visited in a while....
The anonymous system omits just how many people actually frequent the site.
There are the ascribed regulars who spend all day on the site, yes, but the vast majority is living a perfectly normal life.
Some of the trolls go out into the open, too - but obviously this goes against the entire point of anonymity http://i1.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/074/700/27e.jpg
« Last Edit: February 19, 2017, 04:05:32 PM by Burghardt »

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2231 on: February 19, 2017, 04:10:09 PM »
I think it would be quite interesting if you were to ask your 4chan regular friends whether they support Trump.

And if so, why? 

We're talking about a big group of people here, so it's likely there are some people who live on 4chan who genuinely love Trump's racism and bigotry and who fly the confederate flag proudly because they like to frighten and intimidate black people.  And some people who have genuinely bought Trump's lie that he will bring blue collar manufacturing jobs back to America.  And some who, like this article suggests, recognize that he is a fraud and a liar and a turnip, and think that's really funny because like them he is always actively trying to piss people off "for the lulz."

Yes, exactly.

Because Bacchi is perplexed since he sees his 4chan friends as being successful. And I'm wondering if they are just as prey to the persecution myth the article seems to point out.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2232 on: February 19, 2017, 04:28:28 PM »
Will a Republican congress go along with massive tax cuts and huge new spending programs (infrastructure, wall)? 
If they do they are all talk and no action on fiscal responsibility.  Republicans always do one thing, balloon the deficit.
I found this article to be a good summary of the hurdles Republicans face for passing either non-expiring tax reform or a 10 year cut while avoiding a Democratic filibuster.

sol

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2233 on: February 19, 2017, 09:11:56 PM »
I found this article to be a good summary of the hurdles Republicans face for passing either non-expiring tax reform or a 10 year cut while avoiding a Democratic filibuster.

Short version for people who can't be bothered to read:  Republicans desperately want to cut taxes on the rich, and are struggling to find a way to make those tax cuts permanent.

The argument is basically that the Republican party doesn't care about any of its constituents except the one percenters, and has been actively trying to screw over the 99% since Bill Clinton.  When they last had full control of government they passed massive tax cuts for the rich that avoided the filibuster by expiring after 10 years (since the procedural rules allow you to bypass the filibuster for rules that don't increase deficits beyond 10 years out). 

Republicans thought Clinton's tax rate hikes on the rich wouldn't generate any net revenue (they did, Clinton left a huge budget surplus) and they thought that Bush's tax cuts wouldn't lose revenue (they did, Bush crashed the budget after Clinton) and now they're doubling down by suggesting that Trump's tax cuts for the rich will not only not lose revenue, but will actually stimulate revenue by spurring economic growth.  So far, this near religious-like belief in the stimulative effect of tax cuts has never played but they're just SURE it will work this time.

Then there's an added detail about how the repeal of Obamacare fits into this, because Paul Ryan wants to take the 1.2 trillion dollars that Obamacare taxes would gather over the next decade, and instead of spending it on Obamacare they're just going to repeal the ACA and then give that money to rich people as a tax cut.  This allows them to utilize the "doesn't increase deficits" rule that allows them to bypass the filibuster, because the net effect on the budget is zero if you just divert that 1.2 trillion from one cost (Obamacare) to another cost (tax cuts for the rich).  The rule doesn't care how many people get healthcare, it only cares about total government revenues.  This is apparently why they HAVE to repeal Obamacare before they can pass their fantasy tax reform package.
« Last Edit: February 19, 2017, 09:31:33 PM by sol »

bacchi

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2234 on: February 19, 2017, 09:22:13 PM »
Because Bacchi is perplexed since he sees his 4chan friends as being successful. And I'm wondering if they are just as prey to the persecution myth the article seems to point out.

I think they can fall prey to the same persecution complex. One co-worker, in particular, is angry about student loans and the federal reserve (did I mentioned that he was a libertarian?) and "the establishment." Ok, not surprising -- I agree that The Man* needs to be taken down a notch too. But he's willing to throw a firebomb into the theater to stop the play instead of, you know, getting a different play scheduled.

So, yeah, he's a Trump supporter. He doesn't like Trump, particularly, but Trump "will shake things up." I don't know my coworker enough to know why, exactly, he feels it's bad enough to elect someone like Trump.




*Side issue: In another thread, I mentioned Trump doing the inverse of draining the swamp when he hired billionaires and centimillionaires for his cabinet. The reply from a Trump supporter was, "I thought "the man" was the ones oppressing those tycoons." I never realized that there were different definitions of The Man and that, somehow, a billionaire wasn't part of the establishment. It must be related to Ayn Randian worship.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2235 on: February 19, 2017, 10:27:34 PM »
^I read an article yesterday where an official was discussing one of the reasons the EPA faces criticism-it has worked so well, too well in fact, that people take it for granted that "everything is fine" and don't stop and consider why before deeming the agency unnecessary. Sure the FDA, EPA, and other regulatory agencies put forth rules that can feel onerous, but in the grand scheme of things most regulations have a reason for being. I don't want to go back to a time where my air, water, food, and medicine could be poisonous.

To bring my point to your post-our present situation is a direct result of "the system" working as well as it has. Your friend no doubt probably has any or all of these luxuries:

New Car
Smart phone
Internet
Endless entertainment (cable, etc.)
Easy ass job

I fail to see how "the system" is failing. What I see is a whole lot of irresponsible choices made and people needing to blame an external force for personal mistakes.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2236 on: February 20, 2017, 06:45:34 AM »
^ for those that are pining for the 1950s/60s/70s, I doubt they would be content with earning less, sharing a car and living in a much smaller home.
We've lost all perspective - people have become so jealous over the gains of the 1% that they've completely ignored the more modest gains for all the rest.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2237 on: February 20, 2017, 07:56:57 AM »
*Side issue: In another thread, I mentioned Trump doing the inverse of draining the swamp when he hired billionaires and centimillionaires for his cabinet. The reply from a Trump supporter was, "I thought "the man" was the ones oppressing those tycoons." I never realized that there were different definitions of The Man and that, somehow, a billionaire wasn't part of the establishment. It must be related to Ayn Randian worship.
you are referring to the meaning of "drain the swamp" as branded by the media. They insist it meant removing money in general from politics, regardless of who holds it.
The original implication was to remove politicians who follow neither their own nor their constituents will, but the will of the highest bidder from the circle of lobbyists and special interest groups for personal, not the country's, gain.
This is "the swamp".
« Last Edit: February 20, 2017, 07:58:34 AM by Burghardt »

nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2238 on: February 20, 2017, 08:03:32 AM »
*Side issue: In another thread, I mentioned Trump doing the inverse of draining the swamp when he hired billionaires and centimillionaires for his cabinet. The reply from a Trump supporter was, "I thought "the man" was the ones oppressing those tycoons." I never realized that there were different definitions of The Man and that, somehow, a billionaire wasn't part of the establishment. It must be related to Ayn Randian worship.
you are referring to the meaning of "drain the swamp" as branded by the media. They insist it meant removing money in general from politics, regardless of who holds it.
The original implication was to remove politicians who follow neither their own nor their constituents will, but the will of the highest bidder from the circle of lobbyists and special interest groups for personal, not the country's, gain.
This is "the swamp".


Source?

bacchi

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2239 on: February 20, 2017, 08:23:24 AM »
*Side issue: In another thread, I mentioned Trump doing the inverse of draining the swamp when he hired billionaires and centimillionaires for his cabinet. The reply from a Trump supporter was, "I thought "the man" was the ones oppressing those tycoons." I never realized that there were different definitions of The Man and that, somehow, a billionaire wasn't part of the establishment. It must be related to Ayn Randian worship.
you are referring to the meaning of "drain the swamp" as branded by the media. They insist it meant removing money in general from politics, regardless of who holds it.
The original implication was to remove politicians who follow neither their own nor their constituents will, but the will of the highest bidder from the circle of lobbyists and special interest groups for personal, not the country's, gain.
This is "the swamp".


Source?

Also, doesn't one follow the other? The highest bidder is only possible because there's huge money in politics. That money comes from corporate interests and billionaires and, generally, the .1%.

Getting rid of an entrenched Congressling who listens to money from lobbyists is a good thing but it doesn't really help if the buyer behind the lobbyist replaces him/her.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2240 on: February 20, 2017, 08:44:54 AM »
they thought that Bush's tax cuts wouldn't lose revenue (they did, Bush crashed the budget after Clinton) and now they're doubling down by suggesting that Trump's tax cuts for the rich will not only not lose revenue, but will actually stimulate revenue by spurring economic growth.  So far, this near religious-like belief in the stimulative effect of tax cuts has never played but they're just SURE it will work this time.

Didn't you hear? Those people who will get tax cuts aren't the "rich", they're the "job creators" LOL.

Working Mama

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2241 on: February 20, 2017, 11:19:23 AM »
This thread is fascinating.

The thoughtful comments are making my head spin - all good.

A question about making money off of Trump's policies:

Since immigrants are being deported and they are coming in lower numbers... will food prices go up a lot?  They pick a lot of the food in this part of the country.

I can plant a victory garden to save money and maybe sell produce.  What do you all think?
« Last Edit: February 20, 2017, 11:22:35 AM by Working Mama »

Gin1984

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2242 on: February 20, 2017, 11:21:15 AM »
This thread is fascinating.

the thoughtful comments are making my head spin.  A question about making money off of Trump's policies.

Since immigrants are being deported and they are coming in lower numbers... will food prices go up a lot?  I can plant a victory garden to save money and maybe sell stuff.  What do you all think?
Yes, they will.  It could crash California's economy which on top of doubling or tripling food prices will cause a crash on stock market.  I'd definitely plant a victory garden if you could.   

bacchi

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2243 on: February 20, 2017, 11:25:23 AM »
This thread is fascinating.

the thoughtful comments are making my head spin.  A question about making money off of Trump's policies.

Since immigrants are being deported and they are coming in lower numbers... will food prices go up a lot?  I can plant a victory garden to save money and maybe sell stuff.  What do you all think?
Yes, they will.  It could crash California's economy which on top of doubling or tripling food prices will cause a crash on stock market.  I'd definitely plant a victory garden if you could.

Construction costs will go up, too, which will increase existing housing prices, which will increase rents. It's a good time to be a landlord.

This would affect Trump and his hotels but he just stiffs his subs when he declares bankruptcy.

dividendman

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2244 on: February 20, 2017, 11:29:45 AM »
Guest worker program incoming.

I could picture the republicans passing a program for *legal* guest workers from Mexico/other places that aren't bound by the minimum wage. I think everyone would support having this nice underclass to continue to exploit, even the anti-immigrant zealots.

Working Mama

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2245 on: February 20, 2017, 11:48:59 AM »
RE: California's economy
That would really suck, since we know Trump has it out for California.
« Last Edit: February 20, 2017, 11:52:54 AM by Working Mama »

Working Mama

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2246 on: February 20, 2017, 11:51:07 AM »
Guest worker program incoming.

Hmm exploitation of the hardworking people, eh?  Republicans want to cut welfare - right?  Shouldn't those jobs go to soon-to-be-former welfare recipients?

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2247 on: February 20, 2017, 12:01:10 PM »
This thread is fascinating.

the thoughtful comments are making my head spin.  A question about making money off of Trump's policies.

Since immigrants are being deported and they are coming in lower numbers... will food prices go up a lot?  I can plant a victory garden to save money and maybe sell stuff.  What do you all think?
Yes, they will.  It could crash California's economy which on top of doubling or tripling food prices will cause a crash on stock market.  I'd definitely plant a victory garden if you could.

If recent history is any guide, when farm labor is in short supply food prices go up. Both California and Florida depend heavily on migrant labor for food production, and this could have an interesting effect in the months to come.

It's very hard to make money from your own garden given how efficient large-scale ag is.  however, there are other benefits which make home-gardening definitely worth it (fresher produce, fewer/no chemicals, different options than the grocery, because it can be fun, etc.)

dividendman

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2248 on: February 20, 2017, 01:31:03 PM »
Guest worker program incoming.

Hmm exploitation of the hardworking people, eh?  Republicans want to cut welfare - right?  Shouldn't those jobs go to soon-to-be-former welfare recipients?

Yes, if one thing is clear it's that the republicans are experts at exploiting human capital to the benefit of people who have accumulated other forms of capital.

Your argument assumes anyone on welfare would ever do that job. It's a hard job. They could go right now to any farm and do the job, but they won't.

I also disagree that costs would rise that much. Just like in fast food and manufacturing, you'd see robotics get more involved if labor costs increased significantly.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2249 on: February 20, 2017, 01:51:29 PM »
Guest worker program incoming.

Hmm exploitation of the hardworking people, eh?  Republicans want to cut welfare - right?  Shouldn't those jobs go to soon-to-be-former welfare recipients?

Yes, if one thing is clear it's that the republicans are experts at exploiting human capital to the benefit of people who have accumulated other forms of capital.

Your argument assumes anyone on welfare would ever do that job. It's a hard job. They could go right now to any farm and do the job, but they won't.

I also disagree that costs would rise that much. Just like in fast food and manufacturing, you'd see robotics get more involved if labor costs increased significantly.
Mechanized harvesting is the holy-grail of most farming technology, but for most fruit crops it has yet to be realized.  I'm sure someday it will, but not in the months-to-a-year timeframe we're talking about here. I expect in 5-10 years though a lot more of our harvesting will be mechanized.

I concur that literally any able-bodied person can get a job picking fruit, or as a day-laborer or dish washer, etc. I ran an aquaculture farm and we constantly hired people to help with harvesting and processing. A few native-born people applied but they never stayed long. Those who were born elsewhere worked harder and stuck around, and most would work harvesting crops when our work was slow.