Author Topic: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?  (Read 382591 times)

Lagom

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2050 on: February 15, 2017, 11:56:25 AM »
At the moment I trust Google not to give me up to the government, perhaps naively? :)

VERY naively.  The government monitors all traffic at internet backbones.  It doesn't have to hack your account, it already reads everything with the cooperation of all of the major infrastructure partners, and this is a widely known practice.  If it's not well encrypted end to end, Uncle Sam can read it.  They're automatically filtering for specific keywords and phrases, so it's not like there is some poor civil servant who has to personally read all of your emails.

Two factor authentication protects third parties from taking control of your account by resetting the password without your consent.  It doesn't do anything at all to protect your privacy.

There's nothing we can do about that, though, short of having any private conversations over encrypted lines (which I mostly do, and treat my email as possibly public).  But if you give them access to your phone data, they could then read those encrypted conversations directly if you have a copy or possibly get the keys after the fact.  I'd much rather make that impossible.  Even though I have "nothing to hide," I don't want to give anybody any excuses to hold me at the border.

The legal justification for this has been in place for a long time, but it seems that there is renewed vigor in using it.  I'd be interested in the stats on electronics searches in the Trump administration vs. Obama.  If I had to guess, I'd say that Obama sure did it a lot, but likely targeted suspects with existing suspicions from other agencies.  It seems now they are just targeting darkies.

Yes this is my point. I'm not saying my gmail account is impossible to penetrate (I am aware two-factor won't protect me from the NSA, but it's still a good idea). Frankly its already too late to do anything to stop a truly determined party from finding out everything they want about any of us with relative ease, but that doesn't mean I have to open the door and invite them in, nor does it appear Google is doing so, so far as I can tell.
« Last Edit: February 15, 2017, 12:03:09 PM by Lagom »

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2051 on: February 15, 2017, 11:58:33 AM »
Their lead is now, "'VERY UN-AMERICAN': Trump blasts US intel community over 'illegal' leaks."

Does anyone else remember when trump was so enthusiastic about "illegal leaks" that he literally asked Russia to hack Clinton's emails last July?  He publicly commended wikileaks for publishing stolen DNC documents. 

The man built his whole campaign on the very thing he is now calling "UnAmerican".  I don't think you can get much more hypocritical than that.

...you can't get much more hypocritical than that... are you sure?

WHat about Trump railing against HRC's ties to Wall Street, only to have him appoint four former executives from Goldman Sachs into his administration and start rollback of Dodd-Frank?

What about his attacks on the Clinton Foundation as an institution connecting donors to positions of power, only to appoint the biggest donor ever to the Trump Foundation (Linda McMahon) to lead his Small Business Administration, and GOP meda-donor Besty DeVos to be Sec of Ed.?

What about berating HRC's use of a private server as blatantly disregarding national security only to hold an impromptu strategy session in front of dozens of other diners with staffers shining their phones over everything? (ok, that's really similar)

What about DJT's promises of protecting SSI and medicare, only to appoint longtime critic of SSI Tom Price to lead the HHS?

are those hypocricies less than him railing on leaks being "unAmerican" after encouraging Russia to hack the DNC?  ....because I honestly have no idea which is the most hypocritical.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2052 on: February 15, 2017, 12:07:59 PM »
Their lead is now, "'VERY UN-AMERICAN': Trump blasts US intel community over 'illegal' leaks."

Does anyone else remember when trump was so enthusiastic about "illegal leaks" that he literally asked Russia to hack Clinton's emails last July?  He publicly commended wikileaks for publishing stolen DNC documents. 

The man built his whole campaign on the very thing he is now calling "UnAmerican".  I don't think you can get much more hypocritical than that.

To which Trump responds, "Oh yeah? Then watch this."

I think calling it hypocritical is technically correct usage in the context of what was said, but misses the point. Saying it is hypocritical implies that the original statement was either believed or had substance as something to turn from. His words are water and smoke, so it is unclear if there is enough there to really be truly hypocritical instead of simply lacking in substance.

sol

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2053 on: February 15, 2017, 12:29:50 PM »
His words are water and smoke, so it is unclear if there is enough there to really be truly hypocritical instead of simply lacking in substance.

I understand your point, but I think you don't give trump enough credit.

I think he accused Clinton of being too cozy with wall street because of his ties to wall street.  He promoted hatred of illegal immigrants because his resorts employ illegal immigrants.  He challenged Clinton's stamina and health because he's a frail 70  year old fat man with a poor diet and a history of venereal disease. He promised to drain the swamp because he has spent his entire life living in the swamp.  He spoke up on behalf of regular working class Americans because he's an elitist who was born with a silver spoon.  He tried to be tough on crime because be has a long history of working with organized crime in the NYC construction industry.  He pilloried the Clinton foundation, despite its squeaky clean books, because his own foundation was perpetually being fined for illegal practices.  He's fawning over the military because he was a five time draft dodger.  He disparaged the Clinton's marriage because he cheats on all of his wives before divorcing them.

These actions are more than just hypocrisy, they're deliberate distractions.  He uses his own faults and weaknesses as a candidate and as a person as attacks against his opponents.  He's all offense, so he never has to play defense.  By creating these concerns about his enemies, he shields himself from valid criticisms about his own checkered past.  This is such a consistent pattern with him that it can't be a bumbling accident or nebulous hand waving.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2054 on: February 15, 2017, 12:55:05 PM »
He said many of those things because Cambridge analytics said he should

the-rise-of-the-weaponized-ai-propaganda-machine

Quote
Based on users’ response to these posts, Cambridge Analytica was able to identify which of Trump’s messages were resonating and where. That information was also used to shape Trump’s campaign travel schedule. If 73 percent of targeted voters in Kent County, Mich. clicked on one of three articles about bringing back jobs? Schedule a Trump rally in Grand Rapids that focuses on economic recovery.

Quote
Dark posts were also used to depress voter turnout among key groups of democratic voters. “In this election, dark posts were used to try to suppress the African-American vote,” wrote journalist and Open Society fellow McKenzie Funk in a New York Times editorial. “According to Bloomberg, the Trump campaign sent ads reminding certain selected black voters of Hillary Clinton’s infamous ‘super predator’ line. It targeted Miami’s Little Haiti neighborhood with messages about the Clinton Foundation’s troubles in Haiti after the 2010 earthquake.’”

Quote
Because dark posts are only visible to the targeted users, there’s no way for anyone outside of Analytica or the Trump campaign to track the content of these ads. In this case, there was no SEC oversight, no public scrutiny of Trump’s attack ads. Just the rapid-eye-movement of millions of individual users scanning their Facebook feeds.

I remember reading a few weeks ago that trump paid $100k around sept and ramped to $5million the next month. Paid off.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2055 on: February 15, 2017, 12:58:47 PM »
This is beyond embarrassing, I just watched a clip from the press conference with Benjamin Netanyahu.  In it, an reporter (maybe Israeli, not sure) asked what Trump would say to those in the Jewish community who “believe and feel that your administration is playing with xenophobia and maybe racist tones.”

Trump replied - “Well, I just want to say that we are, you know, very honored by the victory that we had: 306 Electoral College votes,” Trump said. “We were not supposed to crack 220. You know that, right? There was no way to 221, but then they said there’s no way to 270.”  I'm hoping that the clip was tampered with in some way and it really didn't happen because otherwise, WTF!!!!


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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2056 on: February 15, 2017, 01:22:18 PM »
This is beyond embarrassing, I just watched a clip from the press conference with Benjamin Netanyahu.  In it, an reporter (maybe Israeli, not sure) asked what Trump would say to those in the Jewish community who “believe and feel that your administration is playing with xenophobia and maybe racist tones.”

Trump replied - “Well, I just want to say that we are, you know, very honored by the victory that we had: 306 Electoral College votes,” Trump said. “We were not supposed to crack 220. You know that, right? There was no way to 221, but then they said there’s no way to 270.”  I'm hoping that the clip was tampered with in some way and it really didn't happen because otherwise, WTF!!!!


At least use his whole answer (bold emphasis mine). We get it, Trump has a huge ego, but he does address the question.
http://www.npr.org/2017/02/15/514986341/watch-live-trump-netanyahu-hold-joint-press-conference-at-white-house

Quote
Well, I just want to say that we are, you know, very honored by the victory that we had -- 306 electoral college votes. We were not supposed to crack 220. You know that, right? There was no way to 221, but then they said there's no way to 270. And there's tremendous enthusiasm out there.

I will say that we are going to have peace in this country. We are going to stop crime in this country. We are going to do everything within our power to stop long simmering racism and every other thing that's going on. There's a lot of bad things that have been taking place over a long period of time.

I think one of the reasons I won the election is we have a very, very divided nation, very divided. And hopefully, I'll be able to do something about that. And I, you know, it was something that was very important to me.


As far as people, Jewish people, so many friends; a daughter who happens to be here right now; a son-in-law, and three beautiful grandchildren. I think that you're going to see a lot different United States of America over the next three, four or eight years. I think a lot of good things are happening.

And you're going to see a lot of love. You're going to see a lot of love.

OK? Thank you.

Lagom

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2057 on: February 15, 2017, 01:31:16 PM »
He said many of those things because Cambridge analytics said he should

the-rise-of-the-weaponized-ai-propaganda-machine

Yikes, what an article. Today's challenge to those who still support Trump: read the above and share your thoughts. I am genuinely interested. Not so much in whether you agree about how this process helped Trump win (doubt you'll go there), but more on the overall implications of this use of personal data.

Midwest

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2058 on: February 15, 2017, 01:41:47 PM »
He said many of those things because Cambridge analytics said he should

the-rise-of-the-weaponized-ai-propaganda-machine

Yikes, what an article. Today's challenge to those who still support Trump: read the above and share your thoughts. I am genuinely interested. Not so much in whether you agree about how this process helped Trump win (doubt you'll go there), but more on the overall implications of this use of personal data.

Other than the fact that Google is much more powerful, how is that materially different than this -

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/julian-assange-google-hillary-clinton_us_5633acc9e4b0631799123a7d

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2059 on: February 15, 2017, 01:43:33 PM »
His words are water and smoke, so it is unclear if there is enough there to really be truly hypocritical instead of simply lacking in substance.

I understand your point, but I think you don't give trump enough credit.

I think he accused Clinton of being too cozy with wall street because of his ties to wall street.  He promoted hatred of illegal immigrants because his resorts employ illegal immigrants.  He challenged Clinton's stamina and health because he's a frail 70  year old fat man with a poor diet and a history of venereal disease. He promised to drain the swamp because he has spent his entire life living in the swamp.  He spoke up on behalf of regular working class Americans because he's an elitist who was born with a silver spoon.  He tried to be tough on crime because be has a long history of working with organized crime in the NYC construction industry.  He pilloried the Clinton foundation, despite its squeaky clean books, because his own foundation was perpetually being fined for illegal practices.  He's fawning over the military because he was a five time draft dodger.  He disparaged the Clinton's marriage because he cheats on all of his wives before divorcing them.

These actions are more than just hypocrisy, they're deliberate distractions.  He uses his own faults and weaknesses as a candidate and as a person as attacks against his opponents.  He's all offense, so he never has to play defense.  By creating these concerns about his enemies, he shields himself from valid criticisms about his own checkered past.  This is such a consistent pattern with him that it can't be a bumbling accident or nebulous hand waving.

Yes, we agree completely. This is different than hypocrisy because he doesn't actually mean what he says. His words are simply a means to an end. He is a bullshitter.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2060 on: February 15, 2017, 01:50:37 PM »
This is beyond embarrassing, I just watched a clip from the press conference with Benjamin Netanyahu.  In it, an reporter (maybe Israeli, not sure) asked what Trump would say to those in the Jewish community who “believe and feel that your administration is playing with xenophobia and maybe racist tones.”

Trump replied - “Well, I just want to say that we are, you know, very honored by the victory that we had: 306 Electoral College votes,” Trump said. “We were not supposed to crack 220. You know that, right? There was no way to 221, but then they said there’s no way to 270.”  I'm hoping that the clip was tampered with in some way and it really didn't happen because otherwise, WTF!!!!

It was much the same when they took 4 questions when DJT met Canada's PM Trudeau.  One reporter asked whether Trump's rhetoric about the southern border extended to the Canadian boarder, and whether he was proposing small or large changes to boarder policies with Canada.  Trudeau's answer (in both languages) was basically that the US/Canada are strong allies, and while Canada might not always agree 100% with its ally on every issue, in the end both are stronger nad have created millions of jobs together by ensuring that goods and people can flow across the boarder in a free and safe manner.
Trump's responded about his electoral college win, about how Mexico was ripping us off, and then he listed eight different companies that (according to him) were shifting jobs back to the US since he took office.  He effectively ignored any mention of Canada in his response about the Canadian border at a conference with Canadian Journalists with Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau.
WTF.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2061 on: February 15, 2017, 02:00:21 PM »
This is beyond embarrassing, I just watched a clip from the press conference with Benjamin Netanyahu.  In it, an reporter (maybe Israeli, not sure) asked what Trump would say to those in the Jewish community who “believe and feel that your administration is playing with xenophobia and maybe racist tones.”

Trump replied - “Well, I just want to say that we are, you know, very honored by the victory that we had: 306 Electoral College votes,” Trump said. “We were not supposed to crack 220. You know that, right? There was no way to 221, but then they said there’s no way to 270.”  I'm hoping that the clip was tampered with in some way and it really didn't happen because otherwise, WTF!!!!


At least use his whole answer (bold emphasis mine). We get it, Trump has a huge ego, but he does address the question.
http://www.npr.org/2017/02/15/514986341/watch-live-trump-netanyahu-hold-joint-press-conference-at-white-house

Quote
Well, I just want to say that we are, you know, very honored by the victory that we had -- 306 electoral college votes. We were not supposed to crack 220. You know that, right? There was no way to 221, but then they said there's no way to 270. And there's tremendous enthusiasm out there.

I will say that we are going to have peace in this country. We are going to stop crime in this country. We are going to do everything within our power to stop long simmering racism and every other thing that's going on. There's a lot of bad things that have been taking place over a long period of time.

I think one of the reasons I won the election is we have a very, very divided nation, very divided. And hopefully, I'll be able to do something about that. And I, you know, it was something that was very important to me.


As far as people, Jewish people, so many friends; a daughter who happens to be here right now; a son-in-law, and three beautiful grandchildren. I think that you're going to see a lot different United States of America over the next three, four or eight years. I think a lot of good things are happening.

And you're going to see a lot of love. You're going to see a lot of love.

OK? Thank you.

Respectfully, I do not see how that answers the question by repeating a bunch of talking points that sound idiotic.  "We are going to do everything within our power to stop long simmering racism and every other thing that's going on."  WTF is every other thing?   Because his daughter is Jewish is an answer?  It's embarrassing, he has no clue how to answer a question other than to talk about himself and spout rambling incoherent nonsense. 

Lagom

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2062 on: February 15, 2017, 02:04:18 PM »
He said many of those things because Cambridge analytics said he should

the-rise-of-the-weaponized-ai-propaganda-machine

Yikes, what an article. Today's challenge to those who still support Trump: read the above and share your thoughts. I am genuinely interested. Not so much in whether you agree about how this process helped Trump win (doubt you'll go there), but more on the overall implications of this use of personal data.

Other than the fact that Google is much more powerful, how is that materially different than this -

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/julian-assange-google-hillary-clinton_us_5633acc9e4b0631799123a7d

1) That link explicitly states that "To date, however, there’s no evidence that any engineers or executives currently working for Google or Alphabet, Google’s parent company, are doing anything to support Clinton’s campaign."

2) I would need to read more about what The Groundwork is doing specifically in comparison to Cambridge Analtytica before agreeing that they are the same, a conclusion you are taking as a matter of course.

3) This quote from the article I linked (which is unclear you read in its entirety or at all): "Political analysts in the Clinton campaign, who were basing their tactics on traditional polling methods, laughed when Trump scheduled campaign events in the so-called blue wall — a group of states that includes Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and has traditionally fallen to Democrats. But Cambridge Analytica saw they had an opening based on measured engagement with their Facebook posts. It was the small margins in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that won Trump the election."

3a) And this one: "Dark posts were also used to depress voter turnout among key groups of democratic voters," which is a whole nother level beyond standard political ads being sent to targeted audiences...

3b) And implies that even if they are trying to do the same thing and The Groundwork was working for Clinton (which your link implies they were not), The Groundwork clearly has worse algorithms and/or potentially is not as insidiously invasive of privacy and/or is not as unethical in their use. Not that I would condone them anyway because...

4) Even if I'm wrong and they are the same (yet to be proven) I find them equally objectionable, and so should you.

5) ETA - And then there is this quote: "Research by Woolley and his Oxford-based team in the lead-up to the 2016 election found that pro-Trump political messaging relied heavily on bots to spread fake news and discredit Hillary Clinton. By election day, Trump’s bots outnumbered hers, 5:1."

So there you go, she used them too, but at a far lower level which implies quite a lot about how she perceived them and what exactly her bots were doing. Still questionable though, depending on those exact details, to be sure.

ETA#2 - "Cambridge Analytica may be slated to secure more federal contracts and is likely about to begin managing White House digital communications for the rest of the Trump Administration. What new predictive-personality targeting becomes possible with potential access to data on U.S. voters from the IRS, Department of Homeland Security, or the NSA?"

I suspect you did not read the whole article at all (I'll admit I was only about halfway through when I first posted).
« Last Edit: February 15, 2017, 02:23:53 PM by Lagom »

sol

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2063 on: February 15, 2017, 02:07:58 PM »
He effectively ignored any mention of Canada in his response about the Canadian border at a conference with Canadian Journalists with Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau.
WTF.

Canadians don't vote.

Until the Canadian press starts to have some pull with American audiences, trump will openly and completely ignore Canada. 

Everything he says or tweets is designed to elicit a response from his supporters and enrage his enemies.  He doesn't seem to care about measuring the political impacts of his statements.  And he certainly doesn't care if any of it is true.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2064 on: February 15, 2017, 04:09:28 PM »
What do you think is the over/under on the number of Trump senior advisers/cabinet secretaries that will be forced to resign or be impeached and removed?

If the current trend (1/month) continues, it'll be 48 in the first Trump term.

I think this Russia thing has legs only because many high ranking GOP senators are against warmer ties with Russia.
There's enough GOP hawks in congress who's hatred of Russia is far stronger than their allegiance to Trump.  I still wouldn't be surprised if the Kremlin 'leaks' some  kompromat on DJT or Tillerman (or both) in the next 6 months.

Assuming they have some komrpomat (which I suspect they do) - the reason they haven't released it yet is because the Trump administration has been doing such a bang-up job of shooting itself in the foot over nad over.  Putin will wait until DJT gets his feet under him and when it finally seems like they've finally bandaged over their self-inflicted wounds.

Well, two down in the first month (though Puzder wasn't confirmed so I guess he technically doesn't count). Nothing to do with Russia either.


Malaysia41

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2066 on: February 15, 2017, 08:51:31 PM »
He said many of those things because Cambridge analytics said he should

the-rise-of-the-weaponized-ai-propaganda-machine

Yikes, what an article. Today's challenge to those who still support Trump: read the above and share your thoughts. I am genuinely interested. Not so much in whether you agree about how this process helped Trump win (doubt you'll go there), but more on the overall implications of this use of personal data.

Other than the fact that Google is much more powerful, how is that materially different than this -

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/julian-assange-google-hillary-clinton_us_5633acc9e4b0631799123a7d

1) That link explicitly states that "To date, however, there’s no evidence that any engineers or executives currently working for Google or Alphabet, Google’s parent company, are doing anything to support Clinton’s campaign."

2) I would need to read more about what The Groundwork is doing specifically in comparison to Cambridge Analtytica before agreeing that they are the same, a conclusion you are taking as a matter of course.

3) This quote from the article I linked (which is unclear you read in its entirety or at all): "Political analysts in the Clinton campaign, who were basing their tactics on traditional polling methods, laughed when Trump scheduled campaign events in the so-called blue wall — a group of states that includes Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and has traditionally fallen to Democrats. But Cambridge Analytica saw they had an opening based on measured engagement with their Facebook posts. It was the small margins in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that won Trump the election."

3a) And this one: "Dark posts were also used to depress voter turnout among key groups of democratic voters," which is a whole nother level beyond standard political ads being sent to targeted audiences...

3b) And implies that even if they are trying to do the same thing and The Groundwork was working for Clinton (which your link implies they were not), The Groundwork clearly has worse algorithms and/or potentially is not as insidiously invasive of privacy and/or is not as unethical in their use. Not that I would condone them anyway because...

4) Even if I'm wrong and they are the same (yet to be proven) I find them equally objectionable, and so should you.

5) ETA - And then there is this quote: "Research by Woolley and his Oxford-based team in the lead-up to the 2016 election found that pro-Trump political messaging relied heavily on bots to spread fake news and discredit Hillary Clinton. By election day, Trump’s bots outnumbered hers, 5:1."

So there you go, she used them too, but at a far lower level which implies quite a lot about how she perceived them and what exactly her bots were doing. Still questionable though, depending on those exact details, to be sure.

ETA#2 - "Cambridge Analytica may be slated to secure more federal contracts and is likely about to begin managing White House digital communications for the rest of the Trump Administration. What new predictive-personality targeting becomes possible with potential access to data on U.S. voters from the IRS, Department of Homeland Security, or the NSA?"

I suspect you did not read the whole article at all (I'll admit I was only about halfway through when I first posted).

Take all of what you just wrote, all of what you read in that article, and combine it with the fact that in 2013 the US repealed the propaganda ban that keeps the US from broadcasting propaganda domestically.

Quote
The restriction of these broadcasts was due to the Smith-Mundt Act, a long-standing piece of legislation that has been amended numerous times over the years, perhaps most consequentially by Arkansas Senator J. William Fulbright. In the 1970s, Fulbright was no friend of VOA and Radio Free Europe, and moved to restrict them from domestic distribution, saying they "should be given the opportunity to take their rightful place in the graveyard of Cold War relics." Fulbright’s amendment to Smith-Mundt was bolstered in 1985 by Nebraska Senator Edward Zorinsky, who argued that such "propaganda" should be kept out of America as to distinguish the U.S. "from the Soviet Union where domestic propaganda is a principal government activity."

keep in mind that

Quote
the Smith-Mundt Act never had anything to do with regulating the Pentagon, a fact that was misunderstood in media reports in the run-up to the passage of new Smith-Mundt reforms in January. ....  In fact, as amended in 1987, the act only covers portions of the State Department engaged in public diplomacy abroad (i.e. the public diplomacy section of the "R" bureau, and the Broadcasting Board of Governors.)

POTUS - a man who paid Cambridge Analytics $15 Million to enrage and/or suppress voters with fake news - is no longer restricted from projecting propaganda on our population. And who is heading up State now? Oh yeah, Rex Tillerson, a guy who harbored zero ethical qualms about bankrolling global warming denial campaigns.

I'm such a mix of negative emotions right now I don't even know where to begin on how this makes me feel.

And the worst part is that the vast majority of the voting population is unaware  or I imagine would be highly dismissive of these revelations - esp if they voted for Trump based on a series of clicks through paid advertising via facebook.
« Last Edit: February 15, 2017, 09:08:09 PM by Malaysia41 »

Lagom

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2067 on: February 15, 2017, 08:57:52 PM »
EJ Dionne today:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/admit-it-trump-is-unfit-to-serve/2017/02/15/467d0bbe-f3be-11e6-8d72-263470bf0401_story.html?utm_term=.e02ed32821ac

It is going to be SO HARD to lay off the "I told you sos." Although I still hesitate to dream we'll have the opportunity. Of course there is also still the stark possibility that Pence is the real Manchurian candidate here. But as long as he keeps us out of war and doesn't completely torpedo our standing in the world I'll take the inevitable repressive social laws since those can just be rolled back in a couple years.

Lagom

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2068 on: February 15, 2017, 08:59:09 PM »
And the worst part is that the vast majority of the voting population is unaware  or I imagine would be highly dismissive of these revelations - esp if they voted for Trump based on a series of clicks through paid advertising via facebook.

No one wants to admit they were duped. I knew this sort of stuff was going on but I was honestly unaware of just how huge the scope was. There is so much cool stuff Big Data can do for the world, but damn its dark side is troubling.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2069 on: February 15, 2017, 09:07:12 PM »
He effectively ignored any mention of Canada in his response about the Canadian border at a conference with Canadian Journalists with Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau.
WTF.

Canadians don't vote.

Until the Canadian press starts to have some pull with American audiences, trump will openly and completely ignore Canada. 

Everything he says or tweets is designed to elicit a response from his supporters and enrage his enemies.  He doesn't seem to care about measuring the political impacts of his statements.  And he certainly doesn't care if any of it is true.
Well, he did approve Keystone XL.... so there's that.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2070 on: February 16, 2017, 05:16:38 AM »
He effectively ignored any mention of Canada in his response about the Canadian border at a conference with Canadian Journalists with Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau.
WTF.

Canadians don't vote.

Until the Canadian press starts to have some pull with American audiences, trump will openly and completely ignore Canada. 

Everything he says or tweets is designed to elicit a response from his supporters and enrage his enemies.  He doesn't seem to care about measuring the political impacts of his statements.  And he certainly doesn't care if any of it is true.
Well, he did approve Keystone XL.... so there's that.
To Sol's cheeky "Canadian's don't vote" - that skirted my point.  When Trump was asked about the Canadian border he ignored the question entirely and just listed a bunch of companies he supposedly had forced into 'great' deals.  But he (Sol) has a point that until US citizens care he can get away with it.  Why should Americans (including his base) care?  Because Canada is the US's biggest trading partner... not Mexico or China. If his base really gives a damn about refugees streaming across the boarder they ought to care that Canada has been letting in tens of thousands Syrian refugees, and unlike the rather armored and patrolled Mexican border the Canadian border is pretty darn porous and a hell of a lot longer.
Frankly, I"m amazed that DJT can keep the focus on Mexico, especially when Trudeau stood in the White House and renewed its commitment to bring in more Syrians and argued that the US Canada border must remain open to both jobs and people.

RE the Keystone XL - meh.  That oil was being shipped inefficiently by rail until prices cratered (and it will again soon) so the global environmental change of the pipeline will change very little.  The people who really loose here are the state and local governments. They take on all the risk of the pipeline with little long term benefit. Once again the GOP proves it no longer stands for states rights and limited federal government.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2071 on: February 16, 2017, 08:06:23 AM »
Once again the GOP proves it no longer stands for states rights and limited federal government.

I think you misinterpret the GOP wanting to limit the federal government and enhance states rights.... they only want that when the Democrats are in charge.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2072 on: February 16, 2017, 08:57:46 AM »
Once again the GOP proves it no longer stands for states rights and limited federal government.

I think you misinterpret the GOP wanting to limit the federal government and enhance states rights.... they only want that when the Democrats are in charge.

I disagree that it's me misinterpreting the GOP's stance on government - the GOP pays a lot of lip service about being the party of limited government.  These are taken directly from the GOP's 2016 platform:

Quote
We believe our constitutional system - limited government, seperation of powers, federalism, and the rights of people - must be preserved uncompromised for generations

And this means returning to the people and the states the control that belongs to them. It is the control and the power to make their own decisions about what’s best for themselves and their families and communities.

Our most urgent task as a Party is to restore the American people’s faith in their government by electing a president who will enforce duly enacted laws, honor constitutional limits on executive authority, and return credibility to the Oval Office. We need a Republican president who will end abuses of power by departments and agencies, like the IRS and the EPA, and by the White House itself. Safeguarding our liberties requires a president who will respect the Constitution’s separation of powers, including the authority of Congress to write legislation and define agency authority.

We further affirm that courts should interpret laws as written by Congress rather than allowing executive agencies to rewrite those laws to suit administration priorities.

our national government derives its power from the governed and that all powers not delegated to the government are retained by the people. We call upon legislators to give full force to this fundamental principle. We welcome to our ranks all citizens who are determined to reclaim the rights of the people that have been ignored or usurped by the federal and intrusive state governments.

Federalism is a cornerstone of our constitutional system. Every violation of state sovereignty by federal officials is not merely a transgression of one unit of government against another; it is an assault on the liberties of individual Americans. Hence the promise of the Tenth Amendment: “The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the states, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.” The Constitution gives the federal government very few powers, and they are specifically enumerated

...and on and on.  Literally their 66 page platform dwells extensively on how the federal government must be smaller, powers should be returned to the states, and congress should assert more of its powers back from the executive branch.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2073 on: February 16, 2017, 09:31:34 AM »
And the worst part is that the vast majority of the voting population is unaware  or I imagine would be highly dismissive of these revelations - esp if they voted for Trump based on a series of clicks through paid advertising via facebook.

No one wants to admit they were duped. I knew this sort of stuff was going on but I was honestly unaware of just how huge the scope was. There is so much cool stuff Big Data can do for the world, but damn its dark side is troubling.

Many of the people I know who voted for Trump still support him. As far as I can tell they do so solely on an anti-immigrant stance and don't care about the rest.  A few of them daily post on facebook about how hard it is to be a white man.

I know one woman who is somewhat upset with Trump, but only about DeVos, since she's a public school teacher. But again, she thinks everything else he is doing is right on track.

I'm baffled.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2074 on: February 16, 2017, 09:36:32 AM »
And the worst part is that the vast majority of the voting population is unaware  or I imagine would be highly dismissive of these revelations - esp if they voted for Trump based on a series of clicks through paid advertising via facebook.

No one wants to admit they were duped. I knew this sort of stuff was going on but I was honestly unaware of just how huge the scope was. There is so much cool stuff Big Data can do for the world, but damn its dark side is troubling.

Many of the people I know who voted for Trump still support him. As far as I can tell they do so solely on an anti-immigrant stance and don't care about the rest.  A few of them daily post on facebook about how hard it is to be a white man.

I know one woman who is somewhat upset with Trump, but only about DeVos, since she's a public school teacher. But again, she thinks everything else he is doing is right on track.

I'm baffled.

It's much less baffling when you realize they live in a completely alternate universe of "alternative facts" that's been created and fostered by people like Steve Bannon. They aren't upset by what's happening because they literally don't know what's happening. They only know what Breitbart et al tell them.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2075 on: February 16, 2017, 09:46:04 AM »
I have one relative who is still passing along the same BS that we heard all during the election. The topics have shifted from HRC to Trump's bullet points but the quality of the information passed along is still just as poor. 

Sad thing is that they were once active Republicans that seemed to "get it" and while their opinions did not always match mine their opinion was mostly based on legit facts.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2076 on: February 16, 2017, 09:50:57 AM »
I disagree that it's me misinterpreting the GOP's stance on government - the GOP pays a lot of lip service about being the party of limited government.

I don't think it's you misinterpreting, I think it is them deliberately deceiving.

I agree that their party platform pays much lip service to the ideals of smaller government, but their actions over the past 30 years betray the lie.  Divedendman was just pointing out the disconnect between what they say and what they do.

Don't be taken in by the advertising brochure.  Look at the actual product.  Republicanism has a long track record, and it has nothing to do with smaller government.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2077 on: February 16, 2017, 10:01:58 AM »
He said many of those things because Cambridge analytics said he should

the-rise-of-the-weaponized-ai-propaganda-machine

Yikes, what an article. Today's challenge to those who still support Trump: read the above and share your thoughts. I am genuinely interested. Not so much in whether you agree about how this process helped Trump win (doubt you'll go there), but more on the overall implications of this use of personal data.

Other than the fact that Google is much more powerful, how is that materially different than this -

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/julian-assange-google-hillary-clinton_us_5633acc9e4b0631799123a7d

1) That link explicitly states that "To date, however, there’s no evidence that any engineers or executives currently working for Google or Alphabet, Google’s parent company, are doing anything to support Clinton’s campaign."

That comment refers to manipulating search results.  I haven't seen any evidence from a credible site of search results being manipulated by google.  However, google personnel and many in the tech industry were active supporters of Clinton.   

My point is that, if anything, she had a huge technological advantage.


3) This quote from the article I linked (which is unclear you read in its entirety or at all): "Political analysts in the Clinton campaign, who were basing their tactics on traditional polling methods, laughed when Trump scheduled campaign events in the so-called blue wall — a group of states that includes Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and has traditionally fallen to Democrats. But Cambridge Analytica saw they had an opening based on measured engagement with their Facebook posts. It was the small margins in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that won Trump the election."

More than bad data was in play in Clinton losing those states.  Her campaign and the media were overconfident. 

Polling methods have been problematic for quite some some time.  In the past, Democrats have found an advantage in this area.  In 2016, it appears the Republicans found and exploited an advantage.


3a) And this one: "Dark posts were also used to depress voter turnout among key groups of democratic voters," which is a whole nother level beyond standard political ads being sent to targeted audiences...

3b) And implies that even if they are trying to do the same thing and The Groundwork was working for Clinton (which your link implies they were not), The Groundwork clearly has worse algorithms and/or potentially is not as insidiously invasive of privacy and/or is not as unethical in their use. Not that I would condone them anyway because...

4) Even if I'm wrong and they are the same (yet to be proven) I find them equally objectionable, and so should you.

5) ETA - And then there is this quote: "Research by Woolley and his Oxford-based team in the lead-up to the 2016 election found that pro-Trump political messaging relied heavily on bots to spread fake news and discredit Hillary Clinton. By election day, Trump’s bots outnumbered hers, 5:1."

So there you go, she used them too, but at a far lower level which implies quite a lot about how she perceived them and what exactly her bots were doing. Still questionable though, depending on those exact details, to be sure.

If I interpret you and the article correctly, both sides were using bots and trolls.   Trump used more and his were more effective?

I think bots, trolls and fake news are objectionable.  Both sides used them.  Based on your comments, it appears Clinton used them less although it still sounds like she used them a lot.  Using something that is wrong less, doesn't vindicate her campaign.

ETA#2 - "Cambridge Analytica may be slated to secure more federal contracts and is likely about to begin managing White House digital communications for the rest of the Trump Administration. What new predictive-personality targeting becomes possible with potential access to data on U.S. voters from the IRS, Department of Homeland Security, or the NSA?"

I would hope NSA and Homeland security data is firewalled.  This kind of discussion is why that data shouldn't exist absent a warrant to begin with.  Both parties have had ample opportunity to do something about it.  Neither have.

I suspect you did not read the whole article at all (I'll admit I was only about halfway through when I first posted).

When I first commented, I hadn't read the entire article and was posting a question.  I have now read the article and looked at the site.  In my opinion, it's a slanted site and that's a slanted article.  It doesn't mean it's entirely false, but I think there is a lot of opinion in there.

Slant isn't unique to the left, it exists on the right as well so when I read an article such as that, I consider the source. 

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2078 on: February 16, 2017, 10:05:30 AM »
Don't be taken in by the advertising brochure.  Look at the actual product.  Republicanism has a long track record, and it has nothing to do with smaller government.

Oh, I agree.  I just read each party's platform and then look at what they ultiamtely do (which are often diametrically opposed).

At the same time I have family members which are dyed-in-the-wool Republican voters who rail against the Democrats and "their big spending, big government" evils.

I think the GOP would loose many of their core supporters if only people would question whether their talk about state's rights and limited government were backed up (instead of opposed by) actions supporting these positions.

Kris

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2079 on: February 16, 2017, 10:32:45 AM »
By the way, if you want a quick sense of how "the right" is casting this (with a typical "tu quoque" bullshit argument, of course):

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2080 on: February 16, 2017, 10:40:57 AM »
Quote
By the way, if you want a quick sense of how "the right" is casting this

Hillary's just too good a villain to ever let die.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2081 on: February 16, 2017, 10:43:35 AM »
By the way, if you want a quick sense of how "the right" is casting this (with a typical "tu quoque" bullshit argument, of course):

I've just found my new retirement hobby.  I'm going to manufacture political memes to counteract this kind of BS with leftist imitations.  I read the news, I'm good with Photoshop, and I have a penchant for oversimplification in the pursuit of obfuscation.

I'll report back after I go viral. 

cchrissyy

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2082 on: February 16, 2017, 10:47:39 AM »
ah, of course, "the national security of the nation"

nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2083 on: February 16, 2017, 10:51:05 AM »
By the way, if you want a quick sense of how "the right" is casting this (with a typical "tu quoque" bullshit argument, of course):

I've just found my new retirement hobby.  I'm going to manufacture political memes to counteract this kind of BS with leftist imitations.  I read the news, I'm good with Photoshop, and I have a penchant for oversimplification in the pursuit of obfuscation.

I'll report back after I go viral.

SUBSCRIBE!

DoubleDown

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2084 on: February 16, 2017, 11:14:19 AM »
Their lead is now, "'VERY UN-AMERICAN': Trump blasts US intel community over 'illegal' leaks."

Does anyone else remember when trump was so enthusiastic about "illegal leaks" that he literally asked Russia to hack Clinton's emails last July?  He publicly commended wikileaks for publishing stolen DNC documents. 

The man built his whole campaign on the very thing he is now calling "UnAmerican".  I don't think you can get much more hypocritical than that.

Yup, it's about as ridiculous as everything else Trump says/does. Plus you have Republicans in Congress with the attitude of "Nothing to see here" (vis a vis Jason Chaffetz) or others like David Nunes (R) who completely ignore the threat to national security of collusion with Russian intelligence agents by high level Trump administration officials, and instead focus on the "leaks". Nunes said the real crime was that U.S. intelligence services were listening in on a phone call with a U.S. citizen, i.e., Michael Flynn!! Yeah, how dare the FBI and CIA listen in on Russian diplomats and intelligence agents. They should definitely stop spying when a hostile foreign agent is on a call with a U.S. citizen, particularly the next National Security Advisor, discussing illegal things before he's even in office.

I'll say, the great thing out of all this is that there are moles in the White House leaking this info in the first place. All bets seem to be on Reince Preibus as at least one of them, but whoever it is, it's a great thing for democracy. I'm against any leaks of classified info, but the leaks out of the White House about the incompetency and illegal shenanigans is much needed and appreciated.

Kris

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2085 on: February 16, 2017, 11:59:20 AM »
Right-wing-pundit-who-finally-developed-a-conscious Charles Sykes, on why it doesn't matter to conservatives that Trump is lying.

Spoiler alert: because the right wing media conditioned them long ago to stop believing in facts. And the more mainstream media tries to counter the lies with actual information and facts, the less conservatives will believe any of it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/04/opinion/sunday/why-nobody-cares-the-president-is-lying.html?smid=fb-share

OurTown

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2086 on: February 16, 2017, 12:31:32 PM »
By the way, if you want a quick sense of how "the right" is casting this (with a typical "tu quoque" bullshit argument, of course):

The right wouldn't know what "tu quoque" was if it bit them in the pantsuit.

nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2087 on: February 16, 2017, 12:37:46 PM »
Today Trump very forcefully and frequently evoked 'strategy #1: Blame your predecessor'

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2017/02/16/trump-says-he-inherited-a-mess-blasts-media-and-detractors-for-treatment-of-his-administration/?hpid=hp_hp-banner-main_trumpmedia-pp-220pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.c54b24b5cc60

Yeah, things sure are a mess...5% unemployment, low inflation, ... nothing at all llike Obama, who got to inherent rainbows and sunshine - /sarcasm.

Lagom

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2088 on: February 16, 2017, 01:16:26 PM »
More on what might happen if you refuse to give up your phone password. Looks like this hasn't ever been truly tested in court:

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2017/02/what-could-happen-if-you-refuse-to-unlock-your-phone-at-the-us-border/

JLee

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2089 on: February 16, 2017, 01:26:32 PM »
More on what might happen if you refuse to give up your phone password. Looks like this hasn't ever been truly tested in court:

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2017/02/what-could-happen-if-you-refuse-to-unlock-your-phone-at-the-us-border/

I bet there are quite a few attorneys out there who would love to take a case for someone criminally charged for refusing to unlock their phone.

Gin1984

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2090 on: February 16, 2017, 02:23:26 PM »
More on what might happen if you refuse to give up your phone password. Looks like this hasn't ever been truly tested in court:

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2017/02/what-could-happen-if-you-refuse-to-unlock-your-phone-at-the-us-border/

I bet there are quite a few attorneys out there who would love to take a case for someone criminally charged for refusing to unlock their phone.
You'd need to have access to one.

Johnez

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2091 on: February 16, 2017, 02:28:25 PM »
So now Trump is going on a witch hunt to pull the Obama loyalists out of any department leaking to the press. I find this pretty sad. It shows a lack of dignity and careful long term thinking. It is like a paranoid lover keeping track of his mates contacts for fear of cheating rather than simply being a good mate. I wouldn't doubt if half the leakers were BUSH loyalists wanting an actual conservative (Pence) in charge...

JLee

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2092 on: February 16, 2017, 02:30:09 PM »
More on what might happen if you refuse to give up your phone password. Looks like this hasn't ever been truly tested in court:

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2017/02/what-could-happen-if-you-refuse-to-unlock-your-phone-at-the-us-border/

I bet there are quite a few attorneys out there who would love to take a case for someone criminally charged for refusing to unlock their phone.
You'd need to have access to one.
I can't imagine a situation where you would end up in a courtroom facing a criminal charge without having access to an attorney.  That's blatantly unconstitutional.

Gin1984

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2093 on: February 16, 2017, 02:47:14 PM »
More on what might happen if you refuse to give up your phone password. Looks like this hasn't ever been truly tested in court:

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2017/02/what-could-happen-if-you-refuse-to-unlock-your-phone-at-the-us-border/

I bet there are quite a few attorneys out there who would love to take a case for someone criminally charged for refusing to unlock their phone.
You'd need to have access to one.
I can't imagine a situation where you would end up in a courtroom facing a criminal charge without having access to an attorney.  That's blatantly unconstitutional.
How many incidences would you like me to list? 

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JLee

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2094 on: February 16, 2017, 03:01:19 PM »
More on what might happen if you refuse to give up your phone password. Looks like this hasn't ever been truly tested in court:

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2017/02/what-could-happen-if-you-refuse-to-unlock-your-phone-at-the-us-border/

I bet there are quite a few attorneys out there who would love to take a case for someone criminally charged for refusing to unlock their phone.
You'd need to have access to one.
I can't imagine a situation where you would end up in a courtroom facing a criminal charge without having access to an attorney.  That's blatantly unconstitutional.
How many incidences would you like me to list? 

Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk

If you have an example of a US citizen being federally charged with a crime and facing a court while being denied access to counsel, I would love to see it.

Wexler

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2095 on: February 16, 2017, 03:12:59 PM »
Here's a 100% true and realistic impact of this presidency: I will never look at my fellow countrymen the same way since they elected this fucking lunatic. 

This.is.our.president.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2017/02/16/a_selection_of_verbatim_quotes_from_trump_s_first_solo_press_conference.html

On relations with Russia in general: “I have been briefed. I and I can tell you, one thing about a briefing that we're allowed to say, because anybody that ever read the most basic book can say it, nuclear holocaust would be like no other.”


Jesus fucking Christ. 

t5inside

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2096 on: February 16, 2017, 03:25:31 PM »
Oopsie:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/flynn-in-fbi-interview-denied-discussing-sanctions-with-russian-ambassador/2017/02/16/e3e1e16a-f3d5-11e6-8d72-263470bf0401_story.html

I'm curious their source, but it doesn't surprise me. Nice that Trump was out defending him in his press conference just an hour ago.

jim555

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2097 on: February 16, 2017, 03:45:04 PM »
More on what might happen if you refuse to give up your phone password. Looks like this hasn't ever been truly tested in court:

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2017/02/what-could-happen-if-you-refuse-to-unlock-your-phone-at-the-us-border/
A US citizen has no obligation to answer any questions by law enforcement.  They have no case. 
They can ask all they want.

JLee

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2098 on: February 16, 2017, 05:52:35 PM »
More on what might happen if you refuse to give up your phone password. Looks like this hasn't ever been truly tested in court:

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2017/02/what-could-happen-if-you-refuse-to-unlock-your-phone-at-the-us-border/
A US citizen has no obligation to answer any questions by law enforcement.  They have no case. 
They can ask all they want.

Yep.  If I'm asked and they keep pressing past my initial "no," I will refer them to my employer's legal team (I use my phone for work). We'll see how that plays out.

Metric Mouse

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2099 on: February 16, 2017, 06:40:02 PM »
More on what might happen if you refuse to give up your phone password. Looks like this hasn't ever been truly tested in court:

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2017/02/what-could-happen-if-you-refuse-to-unlock-your-phone-at-the-us-border/
A US citizen has no obligation to answer any questions by law enforcement.  They have no case. 
They can ask all they want.

Yep.  If I'm asked and they keep pressing past my initial "no," I will refer them to my employer's legal team (I use my phone for work). We'll see how that plays out.
CNN Lays out a pretty good comparison of the ramifications for refusal between citizens, foreign nationals and permanent resident visa holders. Link