Author Topic: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?  (Read 373714 times)

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2000 on: February 14, 2017, 12:30:30 PM »

I was really worried about Trump and Bannon trying to seize more power at some point but with all the national security missteps (leaving a key in a classified bag, holding a national security meeting over N Korea in an unsecured location, etc.) and now the Flynn stuff, I am starting to feel like they couldn't pull off a power grab even if one presented itself.  I have a hard time believing that the ham handed statements by Miller "The President's power will not be questioned" sat well with the GOP.  They need to get a spine and this crap with Flynn might be what is needed.  Watergate took two years, two years mired in Russia scandal would put us at the 2018 mid-terms.

Ham handed?  Miller went full-on Dictator (watch some clips here).  Kinda invalidates all of your other conjectures.

I agree that Miller went full on Dictator, but in such a amateurish, clumsy way that is why I called it ham handed.  When I watched it I was actually laughing at him.  Can anyone see any way for the Flynn swirl to end well for the administration?  Seems very Watergate-ish, as in the action was bad enough, but the cover up is worse.  The White House knew about this since sometime in January and were warned, but ignored it.  GOP Senators have joined the call for an investigation.  Roy Blunt was just elected to a 6 year term - wish my gutless GOP Senator that was just elected will join in, but of course he says he has no comment right now. 

accolay

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2001 on: February 14, 2017, 12:49:03 PM »
Yep, let's hope Trump picks up where he left off. I would suggest he pick a competent and dedicated person to head up FEMA. So far he hasn't picked anyone.

Trumps track record thus far unfortunately points to appointing unqualified and incompetent. But hopefully not worse than Brown and Chertoff.

It's pretty strange that we're having the conversation that we're not sure if a sitting president is or is not going to help a state with disaster funding.

As far as timeline, it's been four days since Brown requested the funds (Feb 10th). It took two days from Mississippi's governor asking (Jan 23 to approval Jan 25), to the request approval (requested Feb 10th). One day for Louisiana (requested Feb 10, approved Feb 11), seven days for Oklahoma (Feb 3 request to Feb 10 approval). In case you're wondering, it was a pain in the ass to look that up.

How long it will take the administration to approve CA? My bet is 14 days...enough for the administration to build that tension and drama. (If you want to bet too, we're using Price is Right rules- if you go over, you lose).

Anyone know the formula for deciding the amount of funds given, or is it an arbitrary number? You know, right off the top of your head?

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2002 on: February 14, 2017, 01:23:54 PM »
Yep, let's hope Trump picks up where he left off. I would suggest he pick a competent and dedicated person to head up FEMA. So far he hasn't picked anyone.

Trumps track record thus far unfortunately points to appointing unqualified and incompetent. But hopefully not worse than Brown and Chertoff.

It's pretty strange that we're having the conversation that we're not sure if a sitting president is or is not going to help a state with disaster funding.

As far as timeline, it's been four days since Brown requested the funds (Feb 10th). It took two days from Mississippi's governor asking (Jan 23 to approval Jan 25), to the request approval (requested Feb 10th). One day for Louisiana (requested Feb 10, approved Feb 11), seven days for Oklahoma (Feb 3 request to Feb 10 approval). In case you're wondering, it was a pain in the ass to look that up.

Any particular reason you think Brown is unqualified and incompetent?

... oh wait, are you talking about Gov. Jerry Brown or former FEMA Michael Brown in this context?  You reference Jerry earlier.  Confused.

cliffhanger

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2003 on: February 14, 2017, 01:36:52 PM »
accolay, this thread has got me interested in this process as well, so I'll give it a shot.

In a previous post, I had found the Disaster Declaration Process, which lays it out pretty well. It appears that a Preliminary Damage Assessment (PDA) will take place. FEMA will assign an impact indicator and compare it to the thresholds that have been declared here. If the per capita impact determined by the PDA is higher than the per capita impact indicator, I think FEMA would recommend the President to declare disaster assistance.

We are talking about Trump here, so anything can happen. I'll take an objective approach to this and see what the data from the PDA is before trashing/supporting Trump on this. If Gov. Brown's estimate of $162+ million turns out to be accurate, I don't see this getting rejected.

I'll also join the betting game! I going to say 25 days! It'll be a wait and see approach as the rain continues this week, then damage needs to be assessed.

Kris, this might interest you. I found the Preliminary Damage Assessment reports, which has a few denials. Unfortunately, this hasn't been updated with any of Trump's declaration. Take the FY2017 Delaware request, for instance. It appears it was denied because the assessed impact was below the impact indicator.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2004 on: February 14, 2017, 01:49:43 PM »
...
I'll also join the betting game! I going to say 25 days! It'll be a wait and see approach as the rain continues this week, then damage needs to be assessed.


oh why not.... I'll say 14 days.  I think Trump has a poor hand here; California has the economy to stomach a $162MM hit, and Trump would loose more than he gains by withholding funding; CA has 14 GOP members, including one (McClintock-R) from the district where the Lake Oroville dam is. Imagine how pissed he'd be if Trump withheld relief money over a perceived grudge.

So he'd likely loose some support from his own party in congress while not gaining much leverage. That's my read anyhow.

Kris

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2005 on: February 14, 2017, 04:11:42 PM »
...
I'll also join the betting game! I going to say 25 days! It'll be a wait and see approach as the rain continues this week, then damage needs to be assessed.


oh why not.... I'll say 14 days.  I think Trump has a poor hand here; California has the economy to stomach a $162MM hit, and Trump would loose more than he gains by withholding funding; CA has 14 GOP members, including one (McClintock-R) from the district where the Lake Oroville dam is. Imagine how pissed he'd be if Trump withheld relief money over a perceived grudge.

So he'd likely loose some support from his own party in congress while not gaining much leverage. That's my read anyhow.


I'll say 20 days, just to enter the game.

dividendman

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2006 on: February 14, 2017, 04:35:23 PM »
What do you think is the over/under on the number of Trump senior advisers/cabinet secretaries that will be forced to resign or be impeached and removed?

If the current trend (1/month) continues, it'll be 48 in the first Trump term.

I think this Russia thing has legs only because many high ranking GOP senators are against warmer ties with Russia.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2007 on: February 14, 2017, 04:58:08 PM »
What do you think is the over/under on the number of Trump senior advisers/cabinet secretaries that will be forced to resign or be impeached and removed?

If the current trend (1/month) continues, it'll be 48 in the first Trump term.

I think this Russia thing has legs only because many high ranking GOP senators are against warmer ties with Russia.
There's enough GOP hawks in congress who's hatred of Russia is far stronger than their allegiance to Trump.  I still wouldn't be surprised if the Kremlin 'leaks' some  kompromat on DJT or Tillerman (or both) in the next 6 months.

Assuming they have some komrpomat (which I suspect they do) - the reason they haven't released it yet is because the Trump administration has been doing such a bang-up job of shooting itself in the foot over nad over.  Putin will wait until DJT gets his feet under him and when it finally seems like they've finally bandaged over their self-inflicted wounds.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2008 on: February 14, 2017, 05:17:40 PM »
What do you think is the over/under on the number of Trump senior advisers/cabinet secretaries that will be forced to resign or be impeached and removed?

If the current trend (1/month) continues, it'll be 48 in the first Trump term.

I think this Russia thing has legs only because many high ranking GOP senators are against warmer ties with Russia.
There's enough GOP hawks in congress who's hatred of Russia is far stronger than their allegiance to Trump.  I still wouldn't be surprised if the Kremlin 'leaks' some  kompromat on DJT or Tillerman (or both) in the next 6 months.

Assuming they have some komrpomat (which I suspect they do) - the reason they haven't released it yet is because the Trump administration has been doing such a bang-up job of shooting itself in the foot over nad over.  Putin will wait until DJT gets his feet under him and when it finally seems like they've finally bandaged over their self-inflicted wounds.
Nah, Putin will want Trump to stay in power as long as possible, he'll want his money's worth for that 19% of Rosneft.  It'll be bad luck for him if the US Constitution and the rule of law come good and Trump is ousted.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2009 on: February 14, 2017, 05:22:56 PM »
What do you think is the over/under on the number of Trump senior advisers/cabinet secretaries that will be forced to resign or be impeached and removed?

If the current trend (1/month) continues, it'll be 48 in the first Trump term.

I think this Russia thing has legs only because many high ranking GOP senators are against warmer ties with Russia.
There's enough GOP hawks in congress who's hatred of Russia is far stronger than their allegiance to Trump.  I still wouldn't be surprised if the Kremlin 'leaks' some  kompromat on DJT or Tillerman (or both) in the next 6 months.

Assuming they have some komrpomat (which I suspect they do) - the reason they haven't released it yet is because the Trump administration has been doing such a bang-up job of shooting itself in the foot over nad over.  Putin will wait until DJT gets his feet under him and when it finally seems like they've finally bandaged over their self-inflicted wounds.
Nah, Putin will want Trump to stay in power as long as possible, he'll want his money's worth for that 19% of Rosneft.  It'll be bad luck for him if the US Constitution and the rule of law come good and Trump is ousted.
Putin knows the likelihood of a GOP house bringing articles of impeachment on DJT are about as likely as Poland invading Russia.  He'll want Trump roiling in domestic controversy for as long as possible, letting him continue his crusade to re-annex the old bloc states.

Kris

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2010 on: February 14, 2017, 05:28:34 PM »
I agree with Nereo that I am far from convinced the Republicans will impeach Trump.

It seems incredible. But I think they are so gutless and so complacent in their power that they are rather likely to succumb to inertia.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2011 on: February 14, 2017, 07:58:04 PM »
The NY Times is reporting that numerous Trump campaign aides had repeated contacts with Russian intelligence. Yeah, that's not just impeachment material, that will get you prison too. Nixon was caught spying on the Democrats. But a Presidential candidate colluding with a hostile, foreign intelligence service that was manipulating our election???

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-campaign-aides-had-repeated-contacts-with-russian-intelligence/ar-AAmWODE?li=BBnbcA1

Quote
Phone records and intercepted calls show that members of Donald J. Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign and other Trump associates had repeated contacts with senior Russian intelligence officials in the year before the election, according to four current and former American officials.
American law enforcement and intelligence agencies intercepted the communications around the same time that they were discovering evidence that Russia was trying to disrupt the presidential election by hacking into the Democratic National Committee, three of the officials said.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2012 on: February 14, 2017, 09:12:07 PM »
The NY Times is reporting that numerous Trump campaign aides had repeated contacts with Russian intelligence. Yeah, that's not just impeachment material, that will get you prison too. Nixon was caught spying on the Democrats. But a Presidential candidate colluding with a hostile, foreign intelligence service that was manipulating our election???

So the big story tomorrow (or late today) is that Russia has deployed a new missile that violates the 1987 proliferation treaty.  I fear that the US is now stuck depending on Trump to stand up to the same people that compromised his Presidency from the get-go.  I mean, WTF is going on with giving Putin a pass on former (ongoing) transgressions and even somewhat favorable treatment? 

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/14/world/europe/russia-cruise-missile-arms-control-treaty.html?_r=0

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-russia-missiles-idUSKBN15T2CS

http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/14/politics/russia-cruise-missile-spy-ship/index.html

This is seriously scary stuff.  Just as I realized, not long ago when DeVos was appointed, just how fragile democracy was, I now realize just how fragile our US way of life is, having it so concentrated in NYC.  One significant unstoppable medium range attack (now made possible) and instead of significant, but ultimately symbolic twin towers falling, we are talking about our heart being ripped out.

I wouldn't blame it all on Trump, he has only been President for a few weeks, but I also don't expect him to take the necessary actions to prevent the threat from growing.  Sadly, every day we are stuck in this neutral position of incompetence, is one more day that we are projecting power in the Middle East and getting further compromised by a real master strategist, Putin.  I've come to admire just how sharp he seems to be, when I listen to the WH faces of Spicer, Miller, Conway, Ivanka ... and don't even get me started on Trump's Tweets.  We are so screwed.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2013 on: February 14, 2017, 09:33:34 PM »
Any new president might be tested in such a manner, but Trump's obliviousness make him a prime candidate for a blitzkrieg of Kremlin bullshit. There is also the renewed meddling in Ukraine going on right now. One theory is Trump is positioning for a grand bargain with Russia, though a more realistic reading suggests he doesn't know what to do because he's retarded. As Garry Kasparov (who I met last year--I'd thought I'd casually point out to increase my status) tweeted: "Winter is here."

But Putin does not want to kill Americans because Putin is rational. The point of putting missiles here, or taking over Ukrainian towns there is to build up bargaining chips for various concessions the US and Europe could make. The Economist's briefing was excellent at pointing out many of the dynamics at play.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2014 on: February 14, 2017, 09:41:26 PM »
As Garry Kasparov (who I met last year--I'd thought I'd casually point out to increase my status) tweeted: "Winter is here."

But Putin does not want to kill Americans because Putin is rational. The point of putting missiles here, or taking over Ukrainian towns there is to build up bargaining chips for various concessions the US and Europe could make. The Economist's briefing was excellent at pointing out many of the dynamics at play.

But what would any chess player do when confronted with a vast inferior?  Get bored with the game.  The least us Americans can do is show that we are worthy adversaries.  So what does it take to get a real President installed?

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2015 on: February 14, 2017, 09:48:57 PM »
As Garry Kasparov (who I met last year--I'd thought I'd casually point out to increase my status) tweeted: "Winter is here."

But Putin does not want to kill Americans because Putin is rational. The point of putting missiles here, or taking over Ukrainian towns there is to build up bargaining chips for various concessions the US and Europe could make. The Economist's briefing was excellent at pointing out many of the dynamics at play.

But what would any chess player do when confronted with a vast inferior?  Get bored with the game.  The least us Americans can do is show that we are worthy adversaries.  So what does it take to get a real President installed?
Apparently Magnus Carlsen would begin to analyze surrounding games when bored in a tournament (by analogy to Russia, Estonia? China?). The US#1 is(?) Nakamura (though how good is Wesley So these days?)  but Nakamura is relatively good at speed chess rather than classical time controls (another good analogy?).

The US does have an asset, ironically, in Trump himself. He is unpredictable enough so that he might credibly turn the board over if the game is not going well. It's hard to fully play the Mad-Man Trump card when surrounded by Goldman Sachs executives that have a vested interests in their business dealings over Trump's vanity, but ultimately, Trump controls the nukes.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2016 on: February 14, 2017, 09:57:29 PM »
As Garry Kasparov (who I met last year--I'd thought I'd casually point out to increase my status) tweeted: "Winter is here."

But Putin does not want to kill Americans because Putin is rational. The point of putting missiles here, or taking over Ukrainian towns there is to build up bargaining chips for various concessions the US and Europe could make. The Economist's briefing was excellent at pointing out many of the dynamics at play.

But what would any chess player do when confronted with a vast inferior?  Get bored with the game.  The least us Americans can do is show that we are worthy adversaries.  So what does it take to get a real President installed?
Apparently Magnus Carlsen would begin to analyze surrounding games when bored in a tournament (by analogy to Russia, Estonia? China?). The US#1 is(?) Nakamura (though how good is Wesley So these days?)  but Nakamura is relatively good at speed chess rather than classical time controls (another good analogy?).

The US does have an asset, ironically, in Trump himself. He is unpredictable enough so that he might credibly turn the board over if the game is not going well. It's hard to fully play the Mad-Man Trump card when surrounded by Goldman Sachs executives that have a vested interests in their business dealings over Trump's vanity, but ultimately, Trump controls the nukes.

I don't say this everyday... but today I'll take a break from being calm - HOLY SHIT YOU ARE FUCKING NUTS.  'Flip the board over', by which you tacitly mean launch nukes?  Well, I thought it was nice to read your posts, but you have nothing to add.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2017 on: February 14, 2017, 10:01:46 PM »
As Garry Kasparov (who I met last year--I'd thought I'd casually point out to increase my status) tweeted: "Winter is here."

But Putin does not want to kill Americans because Putin is rational. The point of putting missiles here, or taking over Ukrainian towns there is to build up bargaining chips for various concessions the US and Europe could make. The Economist's briefing was excellent at pointing out many of the dynamics at play.

But what would any chess player do when confronted with a vast inferior?  Get bored with the game.  The least us Americans can do is show that we are worthy adversaries.  So what does it take to get a real President installed?
Apparently Magnus Carlsen would begin to analyze surrounding games when bored in a tournament (by analogy to Russia, Estonia? China?). The US#1 is(?) Nakamura (though how good is Wesley So these days?)  but Nakamura is relatively good at speed chess rather than classical time controls (another good analogy?).

The US does have an asset, ironically, in Trump himself. He is unpredictable enough so that he might credibly turn the board over if the game is not going well. It's hard to fully play the Mad-Man Trump card when surrounded by Goldman Sachs executives that have a vested interests in their business dealings over Trump's vanity, but ultimately, Trump controls the nukes.

I don't say this everyday... but today I'll take a break from being calm - HOLY SHIT YOU ARE FUCKING NUTS.  'Flip the board over', by which you tacitly mean launch nukes?  Well, I thought it was nice to read your posts, but you have nothing to add.
Well, wasn't that Nixon's strategy in Vietnam? It's nothing new to use your own (perceived or real) insanity against your opponents. Note my reading of Putin's maneuvers were assuming he was rational. But if you drop that assumption, the world does suddenly become a scarier place. "Turning the board over" could mean nukes in the extreme case, but even barring that, the Commander in Chief  holds considerable unilateral military power at lower levels as well.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2018 on: February 14, 2017, 10:08:15 PM »
To add to the point: if Putin thinks Trump has any inclination to resort to insane measures (recall Trump's repeated queries regarding our nuclear capabilities), then Putin has to calculate the possibility Trump is insane into any negotiation. That way, regardless if Trump is actually insane or not, Trump's reputation of possibly being insane has impacted the dynamics. I don't actually think anyone is nuking anyone here. But the uncertainty of motivations and intentions matters.

Malaysia41

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2019 on: February 14, 2017, 10:08:31 PM »
The first item on my to-do list most days is this:

Quote
Dismantle the privately funded two party system.

The privately funded two party system gave us Trump, McConnell, DeVos, Tillerson, etc.

Trump and his team are a symptom of our flawed system that's been corrupted over 100+ years of courts deciding that more and more constitutional rights belong to corporations. This corporate personhood took its final form in 2010 with Citizens United. Trump just happened to tap into the base that had been cultivated by the GOP noise machine, and co-opted it.

If you want to help - find out how you can take action in this thread.

http://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/house-res-48-stop-corp-personhood-trump's-a-symptom-let's-fix-the-system/

Or read this article.

The following reps sit on the House Judiciary Committee. If you agree with HJR48(115th) and are represented by any of these people, please call them. They're the ones who can make this resolution go through. (It's introduced every year and every year it dies. 2017 can be the year it's adopted).

Currently on the House Judiciary Committee:
Steve King (Iowa-4th)  zip codes staring with 50___
Steve Cohen (TN-9th)
Jerry Nadler(NY-10th)
Ron Desantis (FL-6th) Jacksonville area
Trent Franks (AZ-8th) Peoria, AZ
Louis Gohmert (TX-1st)
Jamie Raskin(MD-8th)
Trey Gowdy(SC-4th)


« Last Edit: February 14, 2017, 10:33:14 PM by Malaysia41 »

Malaysia41

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2020 on: February 14, 2017, 10:25:54 PM »
Regarding Flynn -

The chatter on r/conservative can very telling - when it seems shit's hitting the fan over there, when they're losing their minds then I know we might see some changes. Unfortunately - that's rare. Even with the daily Trump stuff.

Scrolling through the subreddit headlines - jeez - the sheer number of 'intolerant liberal / I'm so persecuted for my conservative views' posts is pretty vomit-inducing. I'm as sick of this as I am of hearing 'nazi' from 'the other side'.  The persecution complex on r/conservative is like watching a William F. Buckley video or reading his rant against Yale. I mean holy shit - you've got the house, the senate and the executive. The persecution complex is just absurd - and it stops discussion of issues. Actually the two party system stops discussion of actual issues. But I've already discussed my take on that. 

Anyhoo - here's the post I'm talking about:

This is the leading post on the Flynn matter right now

For the lazy:

Headline: "Defense Secretary James Mattis Reacts to Flynn Resignation: ‘Frankly, This Has No Impact’"

Chatter:
 SmallsMT_02 [score hidden] 4 hours ago
For those wondering, Flynn is not part of the Pentagon. He is a White House staffer that never worked under Mattis at any point.
 
Simi510 [score hidden] 4 hours ago
That's not the narrative I hear on CNN about a man who was blackmailed by the Russians into being a Spy informant to undermine our democracy. xD
 
SmallsMT_02 [score hidden] 4 hours ago
He still does get classified intel, however. He's just not part of the Pentagon.

Simi510 [score hidden] 4 hours ago
But cnn keeps showing pictures of flynn eating dinner with putin... HE HAS TO BE A SPY
All the spies eat dinner with putin, didnt you know that?
/s

SmallsMT_02 [score hidden] 4 hours ago
What does this have to do with Mattis' comments. Flynn doesn't deserve to be in any part of government anymore. AFAIC, these actions are worse than Emailgate.

JAKPiano3412 [score hidden] 3 hours ago
He's joking man.

SmallsMT_02 [score hidden] 3 hours ago
I know, but his joking implies that he thinks Flynn isn't involved with Russia.
 
[–]JAKPiano3412 [score hidden] 1 hour ago
He probably thinks Trump has nothing to do with Russia, idk about Flynn. I thought it was funny
 
zwiebelsaft [score hidden] 1 hour ago
I think CNN reported that James Bond had dinner with Putin last week.

CarolinaPunkEsse Quam Videri [score hidden] 3 hours ago
Flynn though he could fight Mattis and Pence at the same time.
Whoops.

« Last Edit: February 14, 2017, 10:28:54 PM by Malaysia41 »

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2021 on: February 14, 2017, 10:28:53 PM »
Trump and his team are a symptom of our flawed system that's been corrupted over 100+ years of courts deciding that more and more constitutional rights belong to corporations. This corporate personhood took its final form in 2010 with Citizens United. Trump just happened to tap into the base that had been cultivated by the GOP noise machine, and co-opted it.

We are absolutely at a Paul Revere type moment in modern history.  If we allow our country to complacently stay the course for 4 years, adversaries like Russia will be looking to check our independence.  We can wait and hope that we aren't too far behind (after Trump makes all his deals and steals off into the night with whatever amount of money makes a guy like that happy) or we can start to demand transparency.  Democracy only works when the voters can make a clear choice.

Malaysia41

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2022 on: February 14, 2017, 10:31:51 PM »
Trump and his team are a symptom of our flawed system that's been corrupted over 100+ years of courts deciding that more and more constitutional rights belong to corporations. This corporate personhood took its final form in 2010 with Citizens United. Trump just happened to tap into the base that had been cultivated by the GOP noise machine, and co-opted it.

We are absolutely at a Paul Revere type moment in modern history.  If we allow our country to complacently stay the course for 4 years, adversaries like Russia will be looking to check our independence.  We can wait and hope that we aren't too far behind (after Trump makes all his deals and steals off into the night with whatever amount of money makes a guy like that happy) or we can start to demand transparency.  Democracy only works when the voters can make a clear choice.

Yep. We'd better get some decent options to choose from in 2018 and then in 2020. unfortunately our system is set up to produce shitty options. Corporate shill A from team red, Corporate shill B from team red, or once in a while - dude with NPD who was born with platinum spoon in his mouth and is willing to tell people what they want to hear to gratify his own ego and 24% of the voting population falls for his lies either fell for his lies or were comfortable with his behavior despite seeing it for what it was.

Yeah - we need to fix the system to claw back boring old competent governance.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2017, 10:43:50 PM by Malaysia41 »

nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2023 on: February 15, 2017, 07:29:01 AM »
Would somebody please help put the Michael Flynn/Russia scandal into context for me?

I understand that Flynn illegally spoke to Russia about sanctions approved by the Obama administration before DJT had been sworn in and before he had any authority to do so.  I understand that was very bad, possibly illegal and undermined the administration in power (Obama) at the time.

Where I am having trouble is weighing how bad this actually is for the various people involved (Not just Flynn, but also DJT, Pence, Senior WH staff, etc). I've seen phrases ranging from Treason and Impeachment to simply inappropriate or 'bone-headed'. I'm also unclear how much of the fallout is from the meeting itself vs Flynn allegedly lying about what was discussed (which was worse - the conversation(s) or the subsequent lies?  Had Flynn said outright in December that he spoke about future sanctions with Russia as the incoming NSA chief, would this be as big a deal?)

On a corruption scale of 1-10, where do the various components fit?

Malaysia41

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2024 on: February 15, 2017, 07:38:09 AM »
We don't know yet what was said in the Flynn meetings with the Russian diplomat.

But there are more components to this story:

Trump knew the extent (and possibly content) of those conversations weeks ago.

Trump knew Flynn lied to the VP

Flynn+Russian Ambassador weren't the only conversations. There were many other conversations between Trump's election staff and Russian (agents/diplomats) -  and many other convos between Trump's close acquaintances and Russians (agents/diplomats).

Taken all together, it looks bad for Trump.  But hell - I've thought it's looked bad for Trump ever since he goofed on Fiorina's face.  Remember back then? Ah - simpler times.   
« Last Edit: February 15, 2017, 08:20:25 AM by Malaysia41 »

accolay

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2025 on: February 15, 2017, 07:42:50 AM »
Cripes...has it been 4 years yet? This last month seems like forever.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2026 on: February 15, 2017, 08:28:52 AM »
On occasion I head over to Fox news to check out their take.

To them it's seems this Flynn affair is little more than bumps in a new administration.

Bill O'Reilly wrote it off in his spin zone as nothing more than a lack of organization. He sternly advised that they do better.

The lead headline on Fox news: "Flynn was probed by FBI over calls with Russian ambassador, official says"

Really? The lead story is that an interview happened? And then the story focuses on how dangerous it is to have leaks coming out - replete with experts clutching their pearls at the notion that someone would leak classified info from an intelligence agency! Didn't these geezers live through watergate?

No discussion of the fact that POTUS knew all about this for weeks. Little discussion of the content of the leaks - or the breadth of people involved in conversations with Russia.

And OTHER media is bias? This is straight up PROJECTION. The bias and projection are so blatant. But my mom and dad continue to tune in to Fox.  It kills me that they do.  I'm trying to keep my view at the 30k foot level - focusing on how we can dismantle this toxic privately funded two party system. A quick check-in with Fox freaking turns my stomach.

At least my dad agreed to call his rep to ask him to co-sponsor HR48(115th).  Love that guy. (my dad - not his rep).

(Sorry - I know the ranting about Fox is off-topic from the OP - but I just had to share).
« Last Edit: February 15, 2017, 08:31:10 AM by Malaysia41 »

bacchi

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2027 on: February 15, 2017, 08:37:47 AM »
I check Fox occasionally too.

Their lead is now, "'VERY UN-AMERICAN': Trump blasts US intel community over 'illegal' leaks." When officials starts talking about the leaks instead of the huge fucking crime, it's almost a capitulation.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2028 on: February 15, 2017, 08:51:59 AM »
I check Fox occasionally too.

Their lead is now, "'VERY UN-AMERICAN': Trump blasts US intel community over 'illegal' leaks." When officials starts talking about the leaks instead of the huge fucking crime, it's almost a capitulation.

I think our utter inability to keep secrets is the underpinning of our democracy.
Don't get me wrong, I"m all for laws and practices calling for more transparency, but when it comes down to it Americans are just piss-poor at not gossiping.  And that's a really GOOD thing for our country, because eventually we learn stuff like this, and people wind up being held accountable.

Now if only we could keep our collective focus for more than a few.... oh look, something shiny!

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2029 on: February 15, 2017, 10:00:32 AM »
...
I'll also join the betting game! I going to say 25 days! It'll be a wait and see approach as the rain continues this week, then damage needs to be assessed.


oh why not.... I'll say 14 days.  I think Trump has a poor hand here; California has the economy to stomach a $162MM hit, and Trump would loose more than he gains by withholding funding; CA has 14 GOP members, including one (McClintock-R) from the district where the Lake Oroville dam is. Imagine how pissed he'd be if Trump withheld relief money over a perceived grudge.

So he'd likely loose some support from his own party in congress while not gaining much leverage. That's my read anyhow.


I'll say 20 days, just to enter the game.

Sounds like Trump approved yesterday.

http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article132767814.html

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2030 on: February 15, 2017, 10:02:42 AM »
Would somebody please help put the Michael Flynn/Russia scandal into context for me?

I understand that Flynn illegally spoke to Russia about sanctions approved by the Obama administration before DJT had been sworn in and before he had any authority to do so.  I understand that was very bad, possibly illegal and undermined the administration in power (Obama) at the time.

Where I am having trouble is weighing how bad this actually is for the various people involved (Not just Flynn, but also DJT, Pence, Senior WH staff, etc). I've seen phrases ranging from Treason and Impeachment to simply inappropriate or 'bone-headed'. I'm also unclear how much of the fallout is from the meeting itself vs Flynn allegedly lying about what was discussed (which was worse - the conversation(s) or the subsequent lies?  Had Flynn said outright in December that he spoke about future sanctions with Russia as the incoming NSA chief, would this be as big a deal?)

On a corruption scale of 1-10, where do the various components fit?

Since we don't know what was discussed, we can speculate.  Juxtaposed against news of Russia's violation of weapons proliferation, let's just assume that our country's incoming National Security Advisor said something like - "we are really sorry about all of the sanctions Obama put on you because of that unfounded, alleged election tampering.  We don't want to look fishy by repealing all of the sanctions right away, but maybe you could tell us if any of them are causing any undo hardship.  We've really appreciated your support and want to continue good relations."

Russia, knowing full well that they are about to add some weapons that they aren't supposed to be building says, 'well, just look the other way when you get in to office while we import a few innocuous things (you know, just some fuel and electronics).  We were struggling to get them in to our country under Obama, but since you show such good faith in discussing this with us'....

I could probably come up with even more damning conspiracy theories, but it's not like we're getting any transcripts or recordings of these National Security discussions with our oldest and most dangerous adversay.  Instead, we are told to keep looking the other way until Trump's administration can stop the truth from getting out.  The fact that Trump has to deny Russia conspiracy theories makes it all that much more credible.  I mean, why would he even waste the time mentioning it if it were completely unfounded?   

Edit to add - Even as an armchair conspiracy theorist, this new infomation about Trump being in communication with Russia helps to explain the very odd Trump Tweet last December about needing to restart the Nuclear Arms race.

Quote
The United States must greatly strengthen and expand its nuclear capability until such time as the world comes to its senses regarding nukes

- Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 22, 2016
« Last Edit: February 15, 2017, 10:35:51 AM by EscapeVelocity2020 »

nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2031 on: February 15, 2017, 10:03:05 AM »
...
I'll also join the betting game! I going to say 25 days! It'll be a wait and see approach as the rain continues this week, then damage needs to be assessed.


oh why not.... I'll say 14 days.  I think Trump has a poor hand here; California has the economy to stomach a $162MM hit, and Trump would loose more than he gains by withholding funding; CA has 14 GOP members, including one (McClintock-R) from the district where the Lake Oroville dam is. Imagine how pissed he'd be if Trump withheld relief money over a perceived grudge.

So he'd likely loose some support from his own party in congress while not gaining much leverage. That's my read anyhow.


I'll say 20 days, just to enter the game.

Sounds like Trump approved yesterday.

http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article132767814.html
well that's nice... sometimes I don't mind losing :-)

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2032 on: February 15, 2017, 10:17:07 AM »

It will be interesting to see how much this administration affects the U.S. travel industry.  Just did a quick search and it looks like there are many articles out there about it.  The theory is that the travel ban rhetoric,etc... may make foreigners statistically less likely to visit the U.S.. 


The combination of the travel ban rethoric and the invasive border control makes a lot of my friends here in Scandinavia to not even consider visiting the US right now:

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2017/02/a-nasa-engineer-is-required-to-unlock-his-phone-at-the-border/516489/

I know that I feel sort of the same way, even though I've visited once a year since 2008... I really do love travelling within the USA, and I get great treatment.  But...

I've read that US travel bookings from my corner of the world has declined between 25 and 50% the last few weeks.


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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2033 on: February 15, 2017, 10:21:53 AM »
Their lead is now, "'VERY UN-AMERICAN': Trump blasts US intel community over 'illegal' leaks."

Does anyone else remember when trump was so enthusiastic about "illegal leaks" that he literally asked Russia to hack Clinton's emails last July?  He publicly commended wikileaks for publishing stolen DNC documents. 

The man built his whole campaign on the very thing he is now calling "UnAmerican".  I don't think you can get much more hypocritical than that.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2034 on: February 15, 2017, 10:31:30 AM »

It will be interesting to see how much this administration affects the U.S. travel industry.  Just did a quick search and it looks like there are many articles out there about it.  The theory is that the travel ban rhetoric,etc... may make foreigners statistically less likely to visit the U.S.. 


The combination of the travel ban rethoric and the invasive border control makes a lot of my friends here in Scandinavia to not even consider visiting the US right now:

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2017/02/a-nasa-engineer-is-required-to-unlock-his-phone-at-the-border/516489/

I know that I feel sort of the same way, even though I've visited once a year since 2008... I really do love travelling within the USA, and I get great treatment.  But...

I've read that US travel bookings from my corner of the world has declined between 25 and 50% the last few weeks.

Speaking of which, you might want to consider leaving your cell phone at home when traveling internationally. Sadly, the US (and we are not alone in this) has recently started detaining people without cause (or maybe just stepping up this behavior to its own citizens) and forcing them to give up their phone passwords before letting them into the country.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/13/us/citizen-nasa-engineer-detained-at-border-trnd/

Technically, it appears this was legal and the implications are quite chilling:

https://medium.freecodecamp.com/ill-never-bring-my-phone-on-an-international-flight-again-neither-should-you-e9289cde0e5f#.6hbj08do0

JLee

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2035 on: February 15, 2017, 10:36:33 AM »

It will be interesting to see how much this administration affects the U.S. travel industry.  Just did a quick search and it looks like there are many articles out there about it.  The theory is that the travel ban rhetoric,etc... may make foreigners statistically less likely to visit the U.S.. 


The combination of the travel ban rethoric and the invasive border control makes a lot of my friends here in Scandinavia to not even consider visiting the US right now:

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2017/02/a-nasa-engineer-is-required-to-unlock-his-phone-at-the-border/516489/

I know that I feel sort of the same way, even though I've visited once a year since 2008... I really do love travelling within the USA, and I get great treatment.  But...

I've read that US travel bookings from my corner of the world has declined between 25 and 50% the last few weeks.

Speaking of which, you might want to consider leaving your cell phone at home when traveling internationally. Sadly, the US (and we are not alone in this) has recently started detaining people without cause (or maybe just stepping up this behavior to its own citizens) and forcing them to give up their phone passwords before letting them into the country.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/13/us/citizen-nasa-engineer-detained-at-border-trnd/

Technically, it appears this was legal and the implications are quite chilling:

https://medium.freecodecamp.com/ill-never-bring-my-phone-on-an-international-flight-again-neither-should-you-e9289cde0e5f#.6hbj08do0

The request is legal, but there is no obligation to comply.  Refusal to unlock a phone can't (legally) result in denial of entry to a US citizen or to someone with an established/appropriate visa.

Source: Customs & Border Protection buddy of mine - we had this discussion a couple of days ago.  He advised that, given probable cause, they could seize the device and apply for a search warrant.  Absent that, he said just lock the phone before you get to the actual crossing and if you're asked to unlock it, just say no.

Side note, "Customs and Border Patrol" is not a government agency.  So many articles are mentioning it..but..it's not a thing.

Midwest

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2036 on: February 15, 2017, 10:40:17 AM »

It will be interesting to see how much this administration affects the U.S. travel industry.  Just did a quick search and it looks like there are many articles out there about it.  The theory is that the travel ban rhetoric,etc... may make foreigners statistically less likely to visit the U.S.. 


The combination of the travel ban rethoric and the invasive border control makes a lot of my friends here in Scandinavia to not even consider visiting the US right now:

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2017/02/a-nasa-engineer-is-required-to-unlock-his-phone-at-the-border/516489/

I know that I feel sort of the same way, even though I've visited once a year since 2008... I really do love travelling within the USA, and I get great treatment.  But...

I've read that US travel bookings from my corner of the world has declined between 25 and 50% the last few weeks.

Speaking of which, you might want to consider leaving your cell phone at home when traveling internationally. Sadly, the US (and we are not alone in this) has recently started detaining people without cause (or maybe just stepping up this behavior to its own citizens) and forcing them to give up their phone passwords before letting them into the country.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/13/us/citizen-nasa-engineer-detained-at-border-trnd/

Technically, it appears this was legal and the implications are quite chilling:

https://medium.freecodecamp.com/ill-never-bring-my-phone-on-an-international-flight-again-neither-should-you-e9289cde0e5f#.6hbj08do0

The request is legal, but there is no obligation to comply.  Refusal to unlock a phone can't (legally) result in denial of entry to a US citizen or to someone with an established/appropriate visa.

Source: Customs & Border Protection buddy of mine - we had this discussion a couple of days ago.  He advised that, given probable cause, they could seize the device and apply for a search warrant.  Absent that, he said just lock the phone before you get to the actual crossing and if you're asked to unlock it, just say no.

Side note, "Customs and Border Patrol" is not a government agency.  So many articles are mentioning it..but..it's not a thing.

Has any of this changed under Trump?  Constitutional rights have been under assault for quite some time (predating Obama).  If one of the 2 main parties had a candidate that cared about this stuff, they might have won.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2037 on: February 15, 2017, 10:43:22 AM »
The request is legal, but there is no obligation to comply.  Refusal to unlock a phone can't (legally) result in denial of entry to a US citizen or to someone with an established/appropriate visa.

Source: Customs & Border Protection buddy of mine - we had this discussion a couple of days ago.  He advised that, given probable cause, they could seize the device and apply for a search warrant.  Absent that, he said just lock the phone before you get to the actual crossing and if you're asked to unlock it, just say no.

Side note, "Customs and Border Patrol" is not a government agency.  So many articles are mentioning it..but..it's not a thing.

Right, but they theoretically could detain you indefinitely at the border until you capitulate. I mean, the NASA guy could have held out longer sure, but who knows what that would have led to?

Per the ACLU:

https://www.aclu.org/other/constitution-100-mile-border-zone

In practice, Border Patrol agents routinely ignore or misunderstand the limits of their legal authority in the course of individual stops, resulting in violations of the constitutional rights of innocent people. These problems are compounded by inadequate training for Border Patrol agents, a lack of oversight by CBP and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, and the consistent failure of CBP to hold agents accountable for abuse. Thus, although the 100-mile border zone is not literally "Constitution free," the U.S. government frequently acts like it is.

Depending on how the current administration chooses to view the ongoing/expanded operations of CBP/DHS, this could easily become more of a problem than it already is. @Midwest, not saying that Trump has noticeably worsened this, yet, although his rhetoric about immigration and the border begs that question for obvious reasons. And other countries are already doing this with intention (see the blog post above). I certainly hope we don't go down that path, but protecting your privacy is still generally a good idea.


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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2038 on: February 15, 2017, 10:46:33 AM »
...
I'll also join the betting game! I going to say 25 days! It'll be a wait and see approach as the rain continues this week, then damage needs to be assessed.


oh why not.... I'll say 14 days.  I think Trump has a poor hand here; California has the economy to stomach a $162MM hit, and Trump would loose more than he gains by withholding funding; CA has 14 GOP members, including one (McClintock-R) from the district where the Lake Oroville dam is. Imagine how pissed he'd be if Trump withheld relief money over a perceived grudge.

So he'd likely loose some support from his own party in congress while not gaining much leverage. That's my read anyhow.


I'll say 20 days, just to enter the game.

Sounds like Trump approved yesterday.

http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article132767814.html

Hallelujah.

Midwest

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2039 on: February 15, 2017, 10:47:46 AM »
The request is legal, but there is no obligation to comply.  Refusal to unlock a phone can't (legally) result in denial of entry to a US citizen or to someone with an established/appropriate visa.

Source: Customs & Border Protection buddy of mine - we had this discussion a couple of days ago.  He advised that, given probable cause, they could seize the device and apply for a search warrant.  Absent that, he said just lock the phone before you get to the actual crossing and if you're asked to unlock it, just say no.

Side note, "Customs and Border Patrol" is not a government agency.  So many articles are mentioning it..but..it's not a thing.

Right, but they theoretically could detain you indefinitely at the border until you capitulate. I mean, the NASA guy could have held out longer sure, but who knows what that would have led to?

Per the ACLU:

https://www.aclu.org/other/constitution-100-mile-border-zone

In practice, Border Patrol agents routinely ignore or misunderstand the limits of their legal authority in the course of individual stops, resulting in violations of the constitutional rights of innocent people. These problems are compounded by inadequate training for Border Patrol agents, a lack of oversight by CBP and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, and the consistent failure of CBP to hold agents accountable for abuse. Thus, although the 100-mile border zone is not literally "Constitution free," the U.S. government frequently acts like it is.

Depending on how the current administration chooses to view the ongoing/expanded operations of CBP/DHS, this could easily become more of a problem than it already is. @Midwest, not saying that Trump has noticeably worsened this, yet, although his rhetoric about immigration and the border begs that question for obvious reasons. And other countries are already doing this with intention (see the blog post above). I certainly hope we don't go down that path, but protecting your privacy is still generally a good idea.

Lagom - I'm not defending the situation.  We have too many laws and many of the constitutional checks and balances have been circumvented.  If either party would use this as an issue, the populace might vote for them.  In 2016, it appeared both candidates agreed that the current state of affairs was ok.

lemanfan

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2040 on: February 15, 2017, 10:50:49 AM »
Speaking of which, you might want to consider leaving your cell phone at home when traveling internationally. Sadly, the US (and we are not alone in this) has recently started detaining people without cause (or maybe just stepping up this behavior to its own citizens) and forcing them to give up their phone passwords before letting them into the country.


The ETSA form for us persons from the Visa Waiver countryes now asks for your social media profiles.  Still voluntary to fill out, though.

Info used to be in the devices, now even the border guards know it's all in the cloud. 


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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2041 on: February 15, 2017, 10:58:16 AM »
Lagom - I'm not defending the situation.  We have too many laws and many of the constitutional checks and balances have been circumvented.  If either party would use this as an issue, the populace might vote for them.  In 2016, it appeared both candidates agreed that the current state of affairs was ok.

No disagreement on my end.

The ETSA form for us persons from the Visa Waiver countryes now asks for your social media profiles.  Still voluntary to fill out, though.

Info used to be in the devices, now even the border guards know it's all in the cloud.

True, though your cell phone (assuming you have a smart phone) basically is the key to your entire life when unlocked, if you don't take precautions. They also can't know what social media services you use, so that gets trickier than just confiscating a phone. I know this sounds conspiracy theorish, but this is the slippery slope big brother stuff that can easily slide us into dystopia without the general populous even noticing. After all, if you've done nothing wrong what do you have to hide, amirite?

lemanfan

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2042 on: February 15, 2017, 11:04:45 AM »
I know this sounds conspiracy theorish, but this is the slippery slope big brother stuff that can easily slide us into dystopia without the general populous even noticing. After all, if you've done nothing wrong what do you have to hide, amirite?

I am paranoid and have started using cash again when I can. Which is actually getting harder here in Sweden.  And to live like I preach, I should stop using US-based e-mail, but I still have not given up my gmail. If you're not paranoid, you don't just know enough...  ;)

Given your forum name, I assume that you have your roots in my corner of the world?

Lagom

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2043 on: February 15, 2017, 11:20:36 AM »
I know this sounds conspiracy theorish, but this is the slippery slope big brother stuff that can easily slide us into dystopia without the general populous even noticing. After all, if you've done nothing wrong what do you have to hide, amirite?

I am paranoid and have started using cash again when I can. Which is actually getting harder here in Sweden.  And to live like I preach, I should stop using US-based e-mail, but I still have not given up my gmail. If you're not paranoid, you don't just know enough...  ;)

Given your forum name, I assume that you have your roots in my corner of the world?

Yeah I have been way too lax with my own privacy, tbh, but I am finally starting to take it more seriously. Google security is pretty good, but I hear ya. At a minimum everyone should enable two factor authentication for their email. At the moment I trust Google not to give me up to the government, perhaps naively? :)

Indeed, my mother's parents were both from Sweden, so I have a large extended family there. Swedes in general always struck me as unusually mustachian by default, and I love the implications of the word "lagom," which is why I used it as my forum name. I haven't been back in years, but really need to start planning another trip! Might leave my cell at home though ;)
« Last Edit: February 15, 2017, 11:22:47 AM by Lagom »

sol

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2044 on: February 15, 2017, 11:27:50 AM »
At the moment I trust Google not to give me up to the government, perhaps naively? :)

VERY naively.  The government monitors all traffic at internet backbones.  It doesn't have to hack your account, it already reads everything with the cooperation of all of the major infrastructure partners, and this is a widely known practice.  If it's not well encrypted end to end, Uncle Sam can read it.  They're automatically filtering for specific keywords and phrases, so it's not like there is some poor civil servant who has to personally read all of your emails.

Two factor authentication protects third parties from taking control of your account by resetting the password without your consent.  It doesn't do anything at all to protect your privacy.

Malaysia41

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2045 on: February 15, 2017, 11:43:09 AM »
At the moment I trust Google not to give me up to the government, perhaps naively? :)

VERY naively.  The government monitors all traffic at internet backbones.  It doesn't have to hack your account, it already reads everything with the cooperation of all of the major infrastructure partners, and this is a widely known practice. If it's not well encrypted end to end, Uncle Sam can read it.  They're automatically filtering for specific keywords and phrases, so it's not like there is some poor civil servant who has to personally read all of your emails.

Two factor authentication protects third parties from taking control of your account by resetting the password without your consent.  It doesn't do anything at all to protect your privacy.

This is true. I worked planning devices that snooped and forwarded packets to gov't servers. I had no formal security clearances so this stuff is a pretty wide-open secret. 

Yes - encrypt end to end.

If I don't post tomorrow, you'll know they've found me. Tell my family I love them.

JLee

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2046 on: February 15, 2017, 11:43:48 AM »
At the moment I trust Google not to give me up to the government, perhaps naively? :)

VERY naively.  The government monitors all traffic at internet backbones.  It doesn't have to hack your account, it already reads everything with the cooperation of all of the major infrastructure partners, and this is a widely known practice.  If it's not well encrypted end to end, Uncle Sam can read it.  They're automatically filtering for specific keywords and phrases, so it's not like there is some poor civil servant who has to personally read all of your emails.

Two factor authentication protects third parties from taking control of your account by resetting the password without your consent.  It doesn't do anything at all to protect your privacy.

Gmail has been using HTTPS since 2010: http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/03/21/gmail_will_now_encrypt_all_of_the_traffic_between_google_servers_to_make.html

Of course, that doesn't help if the email server you're sending to is using HTTP.

dragoncar

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2047 on: February 15, 2017, 11:44:27 AM »
At the moment I trust Google not to give me up to the government, perhaps naively? :)

VERY naively.  The government monitors all traffic at internet backbones.  It doesn't have to hack your account, it already reads everything with the cooperation of all of the major infrastructure partners, and this is a widely known practice.  If it's not well encrypted end to end, Uncle Sam can read it.  They're automatically filtering for specific keywords and phrases, so it's not like there is some poor civil servant who has to personally read all of your emails.

Two factor authentication protects third parties from taking control of your account by resetting the password without your consent.  It doesn't do anything at all to protect your privacy.

There's nothing we can do about that, though, short of having any private conversations over encrypted lines (which I mostly do, and treat my email as possibly public).  But if you give them access to your phone data, they could then read those encrypted conversations directly if you have a copy or possibly get the keys after the fact.  I'd much rather make that impossible.  Even though I have "nothing to hide," I don't want to give anybody any excuses to hold me at the border.

The legal justification for this has been in place for a long time, but it seems that there is renewed vigor in using it.  I'd be interested in the stats on electronics searches in the Trump administration vs. Obama.  If I had to guess, I'd say that Obama sure did it a lot, but likely targeted suspects with existing suspicions from other agencies.  It seems now they are just targeting darkies.

dragoncar

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2048 on: February 15, 2017, 11:45:26 AM »
At the moment I trust Google not to give me up to the government, perhaps naively? :)

VERY naively.  The government monitors all traffic at internet backbones.  It doesn't have to hack your account, it already reads everything with the cooperation of all of the major infrastructure partners, and this is a widely known practice.  If it's not well encrypted end to end, Uncle Sam can read it.  They're automatically filtering for specific keywords and phrases, so it's not like there is some poor civil servant who has to personally read all of your emails.

Two factor authentication protects third parties from taking control of your account by resetting the password without your consent.  It doesn't do anything at all to protect your privacy.

Gmail has been using HTTPS since 2010: http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/03/21/gmail_will_now_encrypt_all_of_the_traffic_between_google_servers_to_make.html

Of course, that doesn't help if the email server you're sending to is using HTTP.

It doesn't help if there's a NSA server co-located with Google's servers.  As far as I know, mail servers also do not perform end-to-end encryption during transmission (but please let me know if the state of art has changed... wikipedia says each hop is typically encrypted, but if the middle hop is NSA, that again doesn't help.  There are also likely millions of older servers using plaintext SMTP)
« Last Edit: February 15, 2017, 11:47:41 AM by dragoncar »

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2049 on: February 15, 2017, 11:46:45 AM »

There's nothing we can do about that, though, short of having any private conversations over encrypted lines (which I mostly do, and treat my email as possibly public).  But if you give them access to your phone data, they could then read those encrypted conversations directly if you have a copy or possibly get the keys after the fact.  I'd much rather make that impossible.  Even though I have "nothing to hide," I don't want to give anybody any excuses to hold me at the border.

The legal justification for this has been in place for a long time, but it seems that there is renewed vigor in using it.  I'd be interested in the stats on electronics searches in the Trump administration vs. Obama.  If I had to guess, I'd say that Obama sure did it a lot, but likely targeted suspects with existing suspicions from other agencies.  It seems now they are just targeting darkies.



Yeah - it's why I'm not too worried. /s