Author Topic: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?  (Read 349913 times)

Kris

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1900 on: February 11, 2017, 09:34:03 AM »
The door to door raids have begun. This is absolutely horrifying.

"“I am asking ICE to clarify whether these individuals are in fact dangerous, violent threats to our communities, and not people who are here peacefully raising families and contributing to our state,” Castro said in a statement Friday night.

Hiba Ghalib, an immigration lawyer in Atlanta, said the ICE detentions were causing “mass confusion” in the immigrant community. She said she had heard reports of ICE agents going door-to-door in one largely Hispanic neighborhood, asking people to present their papers."

The worst part is that there will still be people who think these actions are A-ok, and will defend Trump no matter what.

I think Godwin's Law is going to have to be suspended for the duration of the Trump administration. If you are not outraged, you are certainly not paying attention. At this point, we should ALL be out in the streets.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/federal-agents-conduct-sweeping-immigration-enforcement-raids-in-at-least-6-states/2017/02/10/4b9f443a-efc8-11e6-b4ff-ac2cf509efe5_story.html?utm_term=.f81a4bccce4d


Please note: Libertarian4321 did not vote for either Hillary or Trump. He voted for Gary Johnson, who was the Libertarian candidate.

dividendman

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1901 on: February 11, 2017, 10:26:51 AM »
The door to door raids have begun. This is absolutely horrifying.

"“I am asking ICE to clarify whether these individuals are in fact dangerous, violent threats to our communities, and not people who are here peacefully raising families and contributing to our state,” Castro said in a statement Friday night.

Hiba Ghalib, an immigration lawyer in Atlanta, said the ICE detentions were causing “mass confusion” in the immigrant community. She said she had heard reports of ICE agents going door-to-door in one largely Hispanic neighborhood, asking people to present their papers."

The worst part is that there will still be people who think these actions are A-ok, and will defend Trump no matter what.

I think Godwin's Law is going to have to be suspended for the duration of the Trump administration. If you are not outraged, you are certainly not paying attention. At this point, we should ALL be out in the streets.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/federal-agents-conduct-sweeping-immigration-enforcement-raids-in-at-least-6-states/2017/02/10/4b9f443a-efc8-11e6-b4ff-ac2cf509efe5_story.html?utm_term=.f81a4bccce4d

While I'm all for Trump bashing, his numbers are kinda low for the first few weeks. Also an immigration lawyer probably isn't the best source of information regarding how the ICE folks are operating. Finally, if you're an illegal alien it is obviously a risk you take to stay in the US that you may be deported.

Obama deported over 1.5 million people in his first term. That's about 7 thousand a week, that's not including people who were turned back at the border or self deported. In Obama's first term there was also no prioritization of who to go after so families and mothers and everything were sent away.

In his second term the deportations actually went up with a record setting 400 thousand in 2012. The Washington post actually references this in the same article you linked:

Quote
The Obama administration conducted a spate of raids and also pursued a more aggressive deportation policy than any previous president, sending more than 400,000 people back to their birth countries at the height of his deportations in 2012. The public outcry over the lengthy detentions and deportations of women, children and people with minor offenses led President Obama in his second term to prioritize convicted criminals for deportation.

So, if you're going to suspend Godwin's law, then Obama, at least for now, is more Hitleresque in his deportations than Trump (and any other president).

Gin1984

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1902 on: February 11, 2017, 10:53:19 AM »
The door to door raids have begun. This is absolutely horrifying.

"“I am asking ICE to clarify whether these individuals are in fact dangerous, violent threats to our communities, and not people who are here peacefully raising families and contributing to our state,” Castro said in a statement Friday night.

Hiba Ghalib, an immigration lawyer in Atlanta, said the ICE detentions were causing “mass confusion” in the immigrant community. She said she had heard reports of ICE agents going door-to-door in one largely Hispanic neighborhood, asking people to present their papers."

The worst part is that there will still be people who think these actions are A-ok, and will defend Trump no matter what.

I think Godwin's Law is going to have to be suspended for the duration of the Trump administration. If you are not outraged, you are certainly not paying attention. At this point, we should ALL be out in the streets.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/federal-agents-conduct-sweeping-immigration-enforcement-raids-in-at-least-6-states/2017/02/10/4b9f443a-efc8-11e6-b4ff-ac2cf509efe5_story.html?utm_term=.f81a4bccce4d

While I'm all for Trump bashing, his numbers are kinda low for the first few weeks. Also an immigration lawyer probably isn't the best source of information regarding how the ICE folks are operating. Finally, if you're an illegal alien it is obviously a risk you take to stay in the US that you may be deported.

Obama deported over 1.5 million people in his first term. That's about 7 thousand a week, that's not including people who were turned back at the border or self deported. In Obama's first term there was also no prioritization of who to go after so families and mothers and everything were sent away.

In his second term the deportations actually went up with a record setting 400 thousand in 2012. The Washington post actually references this in the same article you linked:

Quote
The Obama administration conducted a spate of raids and also pursued a more aggressive deportation policy than any previous president, sending more than 400,000 people back to their birth countries at the height of his deportations in 2012. The public outcry over the lengthy detentions and deportations of women, children and people with minor offenses led President Obama in his second term to prioritize convicted criminals for deportation.

So, if you're going to suspend Godwin's law, then Obama, at least for now, is more Hitleresque in his deportations than Trump (and any other president).
I think you missed the part about demanding papers from anyone of a certain look.  My daughter is Hispanic and was born in the US to two US citizens.  What right does anyone have to come to my door and tell her to prove herself?  In the US, none.  But that is what is being done.  And I do have serious issue with Obama and immigration but that does not change what is going on here.  It is not about deportation but requiring papers for legal citizens.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1903 on: February 11, 2017, 11:10:35 AM »
The door to door raids have begun. This is absolutely horrifying.

"“I am asking ICE to clarify whether these individuals are in fact dangerous, violent threats to our communities, and not people who are here peacefully raising families and contributing to our state,” Castro said in a statement Friday night.

Hiba Ghalib, an immigration lawyer in Atlanta, said the ICE detentions were causing “mass confusion” in the immigrant community. She said she had heard reports of ICE agents going door-to-door in one largely Hispanic neighborhood, asking people to present their papers."

The worst part is that there will still be people who think these actions are A-ok, and will defend Trump no matter what.

I think Godwin's Law is going to have to be suspended for the duration of the Trump administration. If you are not outraged, you are certainly not paying attention. At this point, we should ALL be out in the streets.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/federal-agents-conduct-sweeping-immigration-enforcement-raids-in-at-least-6-states/2017/02/10/4b9f443a-efc8-11e6-b4ff-ac2cf509efe5_story.html?utm_term=.f81a4bccce4d

While I'm all for Trump bashing, his numbers are kinda low for the first few weeks. Also an immigration lawyer probably isn't the best source of information regarding how the ICE folks are operating. Finally, if you're an illegal alien it is obviously a risk you take to stay in the US that you may be deported.

Obama deported over 1.5 million people in his first term. That's about 7 thousand a week, that's not including people who were turned back at the border or self deported. In Obama's first term there was also no prioritization of who to go after so families and mothers and everything were sent away.

In his second term the deportations actually went up with a record setting 400 thousand in 2012. The Washington post actually references this in the same article you linked:

Quote
The Obama administration conducted a spate of raids and also pursued a more aggressive deportation policy than any previous president, sending more than 400,000 people back to their birth countries at the height of his deportations in 2012. The public outcry over the lengthy detentions and deportations of women, children and people with minor offenses led President Obama in his second term to prioritize convicted criminals for deportation.

So, if you're going to suspend Godwin's law, then Obama, at least for now, is more Hitleresque in his deportations than Trump (and any other president).
I think you missed the part about demanding papers from anyone of a certain look.  My daughter is Hispanic and was born in the US to two US citizens.  What right does anyone have to come to my door and tell her to prove herself?  In the US, none.  But that is what is being done.  And I do have serious issue with Obama and immigration but that does not change what is going on here.  It is not about deportation but requiring papers for legal citizens.

Are you referring to this quote by Hiba Ghalib?  "She said she had heard reports of ICE agents going door-to-door in one largely Hispanic neighborhood, asking people to present their papers."

Disregarding whether it's desirable or legal, I'd be surprised if ICE has the resources to do what she suggests she has "heard" is happening.  You indicate that is what is being done, do you have a source other than that quote? 

dividendman

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1904 on: February 11, 2017, 11:23:32 AM »
I think you missed the part about demanding papers from anyone of a certain look.  My daughter is Hispanic and was born in the US to two US citizens.  What right does anyone have to come to my door and tell her to prove herself?  In the US, none.  But that is what is being done.  And I do have serious issue with Obama and immigration but that does not change what is going on here.  It is not about deportation but requiring papers for legal citizens.

I didn't miss that part. I said:

Quote
Also an immigration lawyer probably isn't the best source of information regarding how the ICE folks are operating.

And even if this is happening (which I doubt), the police are allowed to ask for anything, you need to know your rights and decline requests.

Metric Mouse

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1905 on: February 11, 2017, 11:36:33 AM »
The door to door raids have begun. This is absolutely horrifying.

"“I am asking ICE to clarify whether these individuals are in fact dangerous, violent threats to our communities, and not people who are here peacefully raising families and contributing to our state,” Castro said in a statement Friday night.

Hiba Ghalib, an immigration lawyer in Atlanta, said the ICE detentions were causing “mass confusion” in the immigrant community. She said she had heard reports of ICE agents going door-to-door in one largely Hispanic neighborhood, asking people to present their papers."

The worst part is that there will still be people who think these actions are A-ok, and will defend Trump no matter what.

I think Godwin's Law is going to have to be suspended for the duration of the Trump administration. If you are not outraged, you are certainly not paying attention. At this point, we should ALL be out in the streets.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/federal-agents-conduct-sweeping-immigration-enforcement-raids-in-at-least-6-states/2017/02/10/4b9f443a-efc8-11e6-b4ff-ac2cf509efe5_story.html?utm_term=.f81a4bccce4d

While I'm all for Trump bashing, his numbers are kinda low for the first few weeks. Also an immigration lawyer probably isn't the best source of information regarding how the ICE folks are operating. Finally, if you're an illegal alien it is obviously a risk you take to stay in the US that you may be deported.

Obama deported over 1.5 million people in his first term. That's about 7 thousand a week, that's not including people who were turned back at the border or self deported. In Obama's first term there was also no prioritization of who to go after so families and mothers and everything were sent away.

In his second term the deportations actually went up with a record setting 400 thousand in 2012. The Washington post actually references this in the same article you linked:

Quote
The Obama administration conducted a spate of raids and also pursued a more aggressive deportation policy than any previous president, sending more than 400,000 people back to their birth countries at the height of his deportations in 2012. The public outcry over the lengthy detentions and deportations of women, children and people with minor offenses led President Obama in his second term to prioritize convicted criminals for deportation.

So, if you're going to suspend Godwin's law, then Obama, at least for now, is more Hitleresque in his deportations than Trump (and any other president).
You would think that after ICE clearly, repeatedly stated that this was routine, and the planning stages were begun under the Obama administration, that people would have a hard time pinning this on Trump. I guess we are post fact.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1906 on: February 11, 2017, 11:38:41 AM »
I think you missed the part about demanding papers from anyone of a certain look.  My daughter is Hispanic and was born in the US to two US citizens.  What right does anyone have to come to my door and tell her to prove herself?  In the US, none.  But that is what is being done.  And I do have serious issue with Obama and immigration but that does not change what is going on here.  It is not about deportation but requiring papers for legal citizens.

I didn't miss that part. I said:

Quote
Also an immigration lawyer probably isn't the best source of information regarding how the ICE folks are operating.

And even if this is happening (which I doubt), the police are allowed to ask for anything, you need to know your rights and decline requests.
Given I know a person who was "detained" in Arizona for being Hispanics after the GOP passed their law there and not having a way to prove he is a citizen and was only released after his wife (a white American citizen) found an immigration lawyer, yes I do believe that is how ICE is acting.  I also think immigration lawyers are one of the best resources for what is happening because they are there and have little reason to lie. 
I also know of multiple cases where people were detained and had to prove citizenship as well as a few cases where Americans were deported illegally.   Our rights are being trampled, and it is getting worse.  In the Arizona case I could appeal the Feds, I know can't.

GuitarStv

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1907 on: February 11, 2017, 11:42:36 AM »
The door to door raids have begun. This is absolutely horrifying.

"“I am asking ICE to clarify whether these individuals are in fact dangerous, violent threats to our communities, and not people who are here peacefully raising families and contributing to our state,” Castro said in a statement Friday night.

Hiba Ghalib, an immigration lawyer in Atlanta, said the ICE detentions were causing “mass confusion” in the immigrant community. She said she had heard reports of ICE agents going door-to-door in one largely Hispanic neighborhood, asking people to present their papers."

The worst part is that there will still be people who think these actions are A-ok, and will defend Trump no matter what.

I think Godwin's Law is going to have to be suspended for the duration of the Trump administration. If you are not outraged, you are certainly not paying attention. At this point, we should ALL be out in the streets.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/federal-agents-conduct-sweeping-immigration-enforcement-raids-in-at-least-6-states/2017/02/10/4b9f443a-efc8-11e6-b4ff-ac2cf509efe5_story.html?utm_term=.f81a4bccce4d

While I'm all for Trump bashing, his numbers are kinda low for the first few weeks. Also an immigration lawyer probably isn't the best source of information regarding how the ICE folks are operating. Finally, if you're an illegal alien it is obviously a risk you take to stay in the US that you may be deported.

Obama deported over 1.5 million people in his first term. That's about 7 thousand a week, that's not including people who were turned back at the border or self deported. In Obama's first term there was also no prioritization of who to go after so families and mothers and everything were sent away.

In his second term the deportations actually went up with a record setting 400 thousand in 2012. The Washington post actually references this in the same article you linked:

Quote
The Obama administration conducted a spate of raids and also pursued a more aggressive deportation policy than any previous president, sending more than 400,000 people back to their birth countries at the height of his deportations in 2012. The public outcry over the lengthy detentions and deportations of women, children and people with minor offenses led President Obama in his second term to prioritize convicted criminals for deportation.

So, if you're going to suspend Godwin's law, then Obama, at least for now, is more Hitleresque in his deportations than Trump (and any other president).
You would think that after ICE clearly, repeatedly stated that this was routine, and the planning stages were begun under the Obama administration, that people would have a hard time pinning this on Trump. I guess we are post fact.

Calling anybody Hitler is silly at this moment.

It's a valid point that Obama was pretty heavy handed with his deportations (particularly at their highest point in the eight years he was in charge).  That's certainly on him, and he should be held accountable for it.  Given Trump's rhetoric, it's understandable that people have serious concerns about the actions that will be implemented during his presidency.  Hopefully he'll be held accountable for his actions as well.

dividendman

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1908 on: February 11, 2017, 11:45:47 AM »
You would think that after ICE clearly, repeatedly stated that this was routine, and the planning stages were begun under the Obama administration, that people would have a hard time pinning this on Trump. I guess we are post fact.

As a political tool, I think the Democrats (and other folks) are doing the right thing pining it on Trump. They should blame everything on Trump.

But... we're in the MMM forums, I don't want to just write things for political reasons here, it doesn't make sense when trying to actually discuss issues.

Yes GuitarStv, fair Hitler comparisons are a long, long, way off.

sol

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1909 on: February 11, 2017, 11:55:13 AM »
You would think that after ICE clearly, repeatedly stated that this was routine, and the planning stages were begun under the Obama administration, that people would have a hard time pinning this on Trump. I guess we are post fact.

I don't think this is in any way a sign of being "post-fact" in the way that Conway and Spicer are "post-fact" but I do agree that Trump is going to get less leeway on some of these things than Obama got.

Obama seriously considered the Keystone pipeline, for example, and stalled on a verdict for over a year.  If he had approved it, most of America would begrudgingly accepted that he's a very smart man who made a careful decision and decided the negative consequences of the pipeline were outweighed by the benefits.  When Trump makes that decision, it will come off as flippant and deliberately inflammatory, like he'll say tweet "Drill baby drill!  Fuck the earth and all of the liberals on it!"
« Last Edit: February 11, 2017, 11:57:05 AM by sol »

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1910 on: February 11, 2017, 12:03:11 PM »

Calling anybody Hitler is silly at this moment.

It's a valid point that Obama was pretty heavy handed with his deportations (particularly at their highest point in the eight years he was in charge).  That's certainly on him, and he should be held accountable for it.  Given Trump's rhetoric, it's understandable that people have serious concerns about the actions that will be implemented during his presidency.  Hopefully he'll be held accountable for his actions as well.

It's infuriating. Obama was a real hawk on deportations - but to hear the Trump supporters in my family talk, you'd think he swung the borders wide open. My family fails to baseline their opinions with the facts. (Not just on immigration) ... So Obama gets shit from some people for being too harsh deporting so many illegal immigrants, but gets zero credit among people who want to clamp down on illegal immigration. This, even though he deported 2.5M people during his tenure .... 25% more than Bush over the same amount of time.

I'm not personally invested in this issue. I figure if people are in the US illegally, they probably shouldn't be there. But I also understand that there's a whole underground economy that relies on them. I also know that many of them contribute to our social security system (paying into the system between $7B and 12B in 2010 for example) without themselves benefiting from it.

The thing that annoys me is this willingness to spew opinions without so much as inquiring as to the underlying facts. You can't argue policy unless you first agree on your premises. It's nuts.

So on this issue especially - I just stand back and stay out of it. Well - except here. But y'all are solid conversationalists.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1911 on: February 11, 2017, 12:21:20 PM »

Calling anybody Hitler is silly at this moment.

It's a valid point that Obama was pretty heavy handed with his deportations (particularly at their highest point in the eight years he was in charge).  That's certainly on him, and he should be held accountable for it.  Given Trump's rhetoric, it's understandable that people have serious concerns about the actions that will be implemented during his presidency.  Hopefully he'll be held accountable for his actions as well.

It's infuriating. Obama was a real hawk on deportations - but to hear the Trump supporters in my family talk, you'd think he swung the borders wide open. My family fails to baseline their opinions with the facts. (Not just on immigration) ... So Obama gets shit from some people for being too harsh deporting so many illegal immigrants, but gets zero credit among people who want to clamp down on illegal immigration. This, even though he deported 2.5M people during his tenure .... 25% more than Bush over the same amount of time.


It is weird how far perception is from reality on this topic. One of Obama's planks was immigration reform, and it was one area where what he promised wound up being so far from what he delivered.  As noted, deportions were quite high throughout his presidency.
Despite this, one of DJT's planks was far more extreme, and he accused the Obama administration of virtually open boarders. His supporters point to this as reason why we need "extreme vetting" and a complete shutdown in some cases.
Almost as a knee-jerk reaction many democrats are talking about the Obama policies as the immigration ideal, as if things were peachy for non-citizens during the previous 8 years.


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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1912 on: February 11, 2017, 12:25:25 PM »
I think you missed the part about demanding papers from anyone of a certain look.  My daughter is Hispanic and was born in the US to two US citizens.  What right does anyone have to come to my door and tell her to prove herself?  In the US, none.  But that is what is being done.  And I do have serious issue with Obama and immigration but that does not change what is going on here.  It is not about deportation but requiring papers for legal citizens.

I didn't miss that part. I said:

Quote
Also an immigration lawyer probably isn't the best source of information regarding how the ICE folks are operating.

And even if this is happening (which I doubt), the police are allowed to ask for anything, you need to know your rights and decline requests.
Given I know a person who was "detained" in Arizona for being Hispanics after the GOP passed their law there and not having a way to prove he is a citizen and was only released after his wife (a white American citizen) found an immigration lawyer, yes I do believe that is how ICE is acting. 

I would be interested in hearing more about this incident.  Please note, enforcement actions pre-date Trump.

I also think immigration lawyers are one of the best resources for what is happening because they are there and have little reason to lie. 

I would say the majority of immigration lawyers have an anti-enforcement bias on the topic of immigration laws.  In addition, immigration lawyers have a financial incentive to motivate those in need of their services.  Given these prejudices, I find the quote from the attorney to be suspect.  On top of that, the attorney wasn't given a first hand account, just something they had heard.


I also know of multiple cases where people were detained and had to prove citizenship as well as a few cases where Americans were deported illegally.   Our rights are being trampled, and it is getting worse.  In the Arizona case I could appeal the Feds, I know can't.

Do you have any sources or articles?  If American citizens are being harassed or deported, I would hope that would be front page news.

What I have seen thus far from many sources is a lot of hyperbole.  As many other have stated, we have been deporting for quite some time.  I haven't, thus far, seen a dramatic increase under Trump.

Kris

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1913 on: February 11, 2017, 12:40:10 PM »
Here is a post by a person named Haisan Elsharkawi that was just posted on Facebook.

THIS IS AN IMPORTANT POST DO NOT IGNORE: Tonight I was about to board my flight, and as I was about to step on to the plane, an officer came up to me and started asking me questions like "where are you going" and "why". As I was answering the questions, he motioned for me to get out of the line and walk over to a table. At the table there were 5 other officers waiting. They began asking me numerous questions very roughly. After they continued to ask questions without explaining their reason, I said "Do I need my lawyer?" They got really angry and threw my belongings out of my bag, searched them and took my phone. Then they demanded that I tell them what my password was in order to unlock my phone and search it. I said No. They accused me of hiding something suspicious because I asked for my rights (lawyer). Then they told me to place my hands on the table and demanded again that I unlock my phone for them to search. Again I said no. I told them I am not comfortable with their treatment and asked again for a lawyer. They kept threatening me saying "you will see what's going to happen to you. We will make you miss your flight, and we will make this really bad for you." After saying again that I refuse to unlock my phone, they told me to place my hands on my head, then they handcuffed me and began taking me away. At this point, I feared for my safety and I announced "I am being detained and they are not allowing me to have my lawyer. I am being detained and they are not allowing me to have my lawyer." After saying that, the officer twisted my arm and forced my body down. Then they said "we are going to take him downstairs". After they brought me to a downstairs, they put me in a jail cell. They interrogated me about HOW I became a citizen, where I work, where my wife works, why I was traveling, and again told me to unlock my phone. Again I refused and told them it was my right to have a lawyer, and again they said if I need a lawyer, then I must be guilty of something. They sent in numerous people to the room I was being interrogated in and finally a HOMELAND SECURITY agent came into the interrogation room saying that they are trying to protect the country and that if I didn't unlock my phone for them to search, then they would take it from me, send it to headquarters and give it back in 1 month. After 4 hours of being interrogated, I unlocked my phone. They searched through my facebook, my messages, my emails, my pictures and began asking me questions about what they found in my phone, like my business, where I work, where I buy my merchandise from and on. After hours of being interrogated and missing my flight, they released me. I immediately called my lawyer and will continue a process of filing a lawsuit. For those of you who say "the issue in America is no problem, it will be fine" you need to WAKE UP.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1914 on: February 11, 2017, 01:30:33 PM »
Here is a post by a person named Haisan Elsharkawi that was just posted on Facebook.
...

I'm not sure what this anecdote adds to the conversation. Is this an impact of Trump? Perhaps. Have law enforcement officials generally targeted arabs/muslims since 2001? Probably.

There are entire websites dedicated to "TSA Horror Stories" that list out in detail all sorts of apparently illegal actions taken by the TSA since the Department of Homeland Security was created. I don't think we can blame that on Trump. There are plenty of stories of when Obama was in office too, and Bush.

Again, as a political tool, sure, blame Trump. For having a discussion I would need facts to come to the conclusion that government interactions are materially worse for American citizens of arab/muslim descent because Trump is in office.

Kris

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1915 on: February 11, 2017, 01:35:02 PM »
Here is a post by a person named Haisan Elsharkawi that was just posted on Facebook.
...

I'm not sure what this anecdote adds to the conversation. Is this an impact of Trump? Perhaps. Have law enforcement officials generally targeted arabs/muslims since 2001? Probably.

There are entire websites dedicated to "TSA Horror Stories" that list out in detail all sorts of apparently illegal actions taken by the TSA since the Department of Homeland Security was created. I don't think we can blame that on Trump. There are plenty of stories of when Obama was in office too, and Bush.

Again, as a political tool, sure, blame Trump. For having a discussion I would need facts to come to the conclusion that government interactions are materially worse for American citizens of arab/muslim descent because Trump is in office.

How about, "These things should not be happening under any administration, Republican, Democrat, or other, so let's stand up to it"?
Please note: Libertarian4321 did not vote for either Hillary or Trump. He voted for Gary Johnson, who was the Libertarian candidate.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1916 on: February 11, 2017, 01:49:39 PM »
My understanding is that a high proportion of the Obama deportations were people caught coming across the border who were returned almost immediately and that his deportation figures were higher because previously those people hadn't been included in the figures.  Is that right?  If so, then an increased emphasis on deporting those who have been established in the USA for a period of time could be down to the new Trump Executive Order and the new atmosphere on immigration created from the top.  A change of policy along those lines would be far more personally disruptive to far more people with settled connections within the USA.  Whether or not the overall figures for deportation will be higher is probably unknown so far: the change in policy may prove to be less effective overall if it has displaced personnel from operations targeted on new arrivals over the border.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1917 on: February 11, 2017, 02:49:59 PM »
I think you missed the part about demanding papers from anyone of a certain look.  My daughter is Hispanic and was born in the US to two US citizens.  What right does anyone have to come to my door and tell her to prove herself?  In the US, none.  But that is what is being done.  And I do have serious issue with Obama and immigration but that does not change what is going on here.  It is not about deportation but requiring papers for legal citizens.

I didn't miss that part. I said:

Quote
Also an immigration lawyer probably isn't the best source of information regarding how the ICE folks are operating.

And even if this is happening (which I doubt), the police are allowed to ask for anything, you need to know your rights and decline requests.
Given I know a person who was "detained" in Arizona for being Hispanics after the GOP passed their law there and not having a way to prove he is a citizen and was only released after his wife (a white American citizen) found an immigration lawyer, yes I do believe that is how ICE is acting. 

I would be interested in hearing more about this incident.  Please note, enforcement actions pre-date Trump.

I also think immigration lawyers are one of the best resources for what is happening because they are there and have little reason to lie. 

I would say the majority of immigration lawyers have an anti-enforcement bias on the topic of immigration laws.  In addition, immigration lawyers have a financial incentive to motivate those in need of their services.  Given these prejudices, I find the quote from the attorney to be suspect.  On top of that, the attorney wasn't given a first hand account, just something they had heard.


I also know of multiple cases where people were detained and had to prove citizenship as well as a few cases where Americans were deported illegally.   Our rights are being trampled, and it is getting worse.  In the Arizona case I could appeal the Feds, I know can't.

Do you have any sources or articles?  If American citizens are being harassed or deported, I would hope that would be front page news.

What I have seen thus far from many sources is a lot of hyperbole.  As many other have stated, we have been deporting for quite some time.  I haven't, thus far, seen a dramatic increase under Trump.
Here is the google results: https://www.google.com/#q=american+citizen+accidentally+deported
And, yes I agree there have long been issues, I just trust the older administrations (Bushs included) to deal with the issue more properly if it was brought up.  I'm not saying any of them did it perfectly just that it is getting worse.
And what more would you like to know about the incident? 
« Last Edit: February 11, 2017, 02:51:48 PM by Gin1984 »

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1918 on: February 11, 2017, 02:52:58 PM »
My understanding is that a high proportion of the Obama deportations were people caught coming across the border who were returned almost immediately and that his deportation figures were higher because previously those people hadn't been included in the figures.  Is that right?  If so, then an increased emphasis on deporting those who have been established in the USA for a period of time could be down to the new Trump Executive Order and the new atmosphere on immigration created from the top.  A change of policy along those lines would be far more personally disruptive to far more people with settled connections within the USA.  Whether or not the overall figures for deportation will be higher is probably unknown so far: the change in policy may prove to be less effective overall if it has displaced personnel from operations targeted on new arrivals over the border.

I would think a policy of enforcing the law against those caught here illegally (both at the border and otherwise) and those employing them, would be more effective at preventing such behavior than a policy of enforcing the law only at the border.  Once free of the border, the vast majority of those in are never sent back. 

If you know you have little chance of getting sent back once here and little punishment if caught trying to get in illegally, why not keep trying until you get in? 

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1919 on: February 11, 2017, 04:30:08 PM »
Here is a post by a person named Haisan Elsharkawi that was just posted on Facebook.
...

I'm not sure what this anecdote adds to the conversation. Is this an impact of Trump? Perhaps. Have law enforcement officials generally targeted arabs/muslims since 2001? Probably.

There are entire websites dedicated to "TSA Horror Stories" that list out in detail all sorts of apparently illegal actions taken by the TSA since the Department of Homeland Security was created. I don't think we can blame that on Trump. There are plenty of stories of when Obama was in office too, and Bush.

Again, as a political tool, sure, blame Trump. For having a discussion I would need facts to come to the conclusion that government interactions are materially worse for American citizens of arab/muslim descent because Trump is in office.

How about, "These things should not be happening under any administration, Republican, Democrat, or other, so let's stand up to it"?
While true, it is off topic for this thread.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1920 on: February 11, 2017, 04:55:12 PM »
My understanding is that a high proportion of the Obama deportations were people caught coming across the border who were returned almost immediately and that his deportation figures were higher because previously those people hadn't been included in the figures.  Is that right?  If so, then an increased emphasis on deporting those who have been established in the USA for a period of time could be down to the new Trump Executive Order and the new atmosphere on immigration created from the top.  A change of policy along those lines would be far more personally disruptive to far more people with settled connections within the USA.  Whether or not the overall figures for deportation will be higher is probably unknown so far: the change in policy may prove to be less effective overall if it has displaced personnel from operations targeted on new arrivals over the border.
This would be worthy of noting.  However, the LA raids were clearly a hold over from the Obama immigration policies. This leaves much room for improvement. Trump has been focused on border security, which would be basically continuing Obama's "deport them at the border" policies. Not as disruptive as the Raids conducted recently. And if, as ICE claims, the vast majority of those caught in the raids were criminals, many with violent crime convictions, and most of the rest already had deportation orders against them, I'm not sure that this specific instance is a bad thing, overall.

You would think that after ICE clearly, repeatedly stated that this was routine, and the planning stages were begun under the Obama administration, that people would have a hard time pinning this on Trump. I guess we are post fact.

I don't think this is in any way a sign of being "post-fact" in the way that Conway and Spicer are "post-fact" but I do agree that Trump is going to get less leeway on some of these things than Obama got.

Obama seriously considered the Keystone pipeline, for example, and stalled on a verdict for over a year.  If he had approved it, most of America would begrudgingly accepted that he's a very smart man who made a careful decision and decided the negative consequences of the pipeline were outweighed by the benefits.  When Trump makes that decision, it will come off as flippant and deliberately inflammatory, like he'll say tweet "Drill baby drill!  Fuck the earth and all of the liberals on it!"
I agree that Trump will get less leeway and receive more flack for actions that would be considered normal under different administrations. I agree that this is largely a reaction to the way he acts and the silly things he spews from Twitter. I don't agree that this should be a reason to dismiss or condone his policies; they should be debated on their own merits. I understand that this will be difficult for some to separate, but i hold hope that rational discussion will prevail over reactionary arm flailing and hyperbole. Perhaps this is naive, but i think focusing on debate and discussion will be worth the effort and combat a bit of the negatives of Trump's inflammatory style.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1921 on: February 11, 2017, 05:06:56 PM »
Here is a post by a person named Haisan Elsharkawi that was just posted on Facebook.
...

I'm not sure what this anecdote adds to the conversation. Is this an impact of Trump? Perhaps. Have law enforcement officials generally targeted arabs/muslims since 2001? Probably.

There are entire websites dedicated to "TSA Horror Stories" that list out in detail all sorts of apparently illegal actions taken by the TSA since the Department of Homeland Security was created. I don't think we can blame that on Trump. There are plenty of stories of when Obama was in office too, and Bush.

Again, as a political tool, sure, blame Trump. For having a discussion I would need facts to come to the conclusion that government interactions are materially worse for American citizens of arab/muslim descent because Trump is in office.

How about, "These things should not be happening under any administration, Republican, Democrat, or other, so let's stand up to it"?
While true, it is off topic for this thread.

Okay, I'll reframe it so it's on topic:

Realistic impacts of a Trump presidency? This shit is going to get exponentially worse, and the tendency toward complacency of many people will allow it to go on for far too long.
Please note: Libertarian4321 did not vote for either Hillary or Trump. He voted for Gary Johnson, who was the Libertarian candidate.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1922 on: February 11, 2017, 05:27:50 PM »
I don't agree that this should be a reason to dismiss or condone his policies; they should be debated on their own merits. I understand that this will be difficult for some to separate, but i hold hope that rational discussion will prevail over reactionary arm flailing and hyperbole.

Seriously?  Trump LIVES on reactionary arm flailing and hyperbole.  That's his bread and butter.  How are you criticizing liberals for this?

This was the pattern of Trump's entire campaign, but that doesn't mean you should follow suit.  Trump has spent the past year turning his own negatives into attacks on his opposition.  Clinton lacks stamina because Trump is a 70 year old man with a poor diet and a history of venereal disease.  Lyin' Ted Cruz is dishonest because Trump can't tell the truth even when it would benefit him.  Obama was a Kenyan Muslim because Trump is an atheist.  Immigrants are evil and have to be stopped, because Trump employs illegal immigrants at his resorts and also married an illegal immigrant.  Planned parenthood is immoral and has to go, because Trump has publicly bragged about cheating on all three of his wives.  Fiorina was a bad CEO because Trump's companies have declared bankruptcy six times.  Clinton's vast political experience was horrible, because Trump had no political experience at all.  Clinton's foundation was corrupt, because Trump's foundation was actually fined for illegal practices.  I could go on, but so can everyone else in the country.

It's time we all got serious about this.  Trump is a world class con man and lots of Americans fell for it.  He doesn't actually care about anything he promised during the campaign (lock her up, drain the swamp, build the wall), and he's only in the white house to make money for himself and his family.  He doesn't care about Americans or America. 


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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1923 on: February 11, 2017, 06:39:59 PM »
It's time we all got serious about this. 

I think that time was actually early November. Now we have to hope that he'll obey the courts and if he doesn't congress will remove him.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1924 on: February 11, 2017, 06:51:30 PM »
I don't agree that this should be a reason to dismiss or condone his policies; they should be debated on their own merits. I understand that this will be difficult for some to separate, but i hold hope that rational discussion will prevail over reactionary arm flailing and hyperbole.

Seriously?  Trump LIVES on reactionary arm flailing and hyperbole.  That's his bread and butter.  How are you criticizing liberals for this?

This was the pattern of Trump's entire campaign, but that doesn't mean you should follow suit.  Trump has spent the past year turning his own negatives into attacks on his opposition.  Clinton lacks stamina because Trump is a 70 year old man with a poor diet and a history of venereal disease.  Lyin' Ted Cruz is dishonest because Trump can't tell the truth even when it would benefit him.  Obama was a Kenyan Muslim because Trump is an atheist.  Immigrants are evil and have to be stopped, because Trump employs illegal immigrants at his resorts and also married an illegal immigrant.  Planned parenthood is immoral and has to go, because Trump has publicly bragged about cheating on all three of his wives.  Fiorina was a bad CEO because Trump's companies have declared bankruptcy six times.  Clinton's vast political experience was horrible, because Trump had no political experience at all.  Clinton's foundation was corrupt, because Trump's foundation was actually fined for illegal practices.  I could go on, but so can everyone else in the country.

It's time we all got serious about this.  Trump is a world class con man and lots of Americans fell for it.  He doesn't actually care about anything he promised during the campaign (lock her up, drain the swamp, build the wall), and he's only in the white house to make money for himself and his family.  He doesn't care about Americans or America.

In what I'm seeing on social media lately, the arm-flailing is coming from barely articulate Trump supporters spewing victorious rage.  My liberal friends are far more coherent and rational.

People claiming that liberals are being reactionary is laughable.  It's nearly impossible to have an intelligent discussion with the vast majority of Trump supporters.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1925 on: February 11, 2017, 08:10:07 PM »
I don't agree that this should be a reason to dismiss or condone his policies; they should be debated on their own merits. I understand that this will be difficult for some to separate, but i hold hope that rational discussion will prevail over reactionary arm flailing and hyperbole.

Seriously?  Trump LIVES on reactionary arm flailing and hyperbole.  That's his bread and butter.  How are you criticizing liberals for this?

This was the pattern of Trump's entire campaign, but that doesn't mean you should follow suit.  Trump has spent the past year turning his own negatives into attacks on his opposition.  Clinton lacks stamina because Trump is a 70 year old man with a poor diet and a history of venereal disease.  Lyin' Ted Cruz is dishonest because Trump can't tell the truth even when it would benefit him.  Obama was a Kenyan Muslim because Trump is an atheist.  Immigrants are evil and have to be stopped, because Trump employs illegal immigrants at his resorts and also married an illegal immigrant.  Planned parenthood is immoral and has to go, because Trump has publicly bragged about cheating on all three of his wives.  Fiorina was a bad CEO because Trump's companies have declared bankruptcy six times.  Clinton's vast political experience was horrible, because Trump had no political experience at all.  Clinton's foundation was corrupt, because Trump's foundation was actually fined for illegal practices.  I could go on, but so can everyone else in the country.

It's time we all got serious about this.  Trump is a world class con man and lots of Americans fell for it.  He doesn't actually care about anything he promised during the campaign (lock her up, drain the swamp, build the wall), and he's only in the white house to make money for himself and his family.  He doesn't care about Americans or America.
Tu quoque? Again? Of course Trump lives to inflame, bully and shut down discussion. Does that mean that everyone should engage in such tactics?  No. No one should. Trump is getting attacked from every angle for his actions. If the other side engages in the same practices, they deserve the same reprimands. I made no mention of 'liberals' in my post - I think anyone who engages in hyperbolic arm flailing needs to cool down and come back to reasonable discussion. We can probably agree that it is unlikely that Trump will do this, but I think that only makes it more important to engage with other citizens to discuss issues, and it is exactly the wrong thing to try to rise to Trump's level of incendiary half-true rhetoric.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1926 on: February 11, 2017, 08:12:35 PM »
It's time we all got serious about this. 

I think that time was actually early November. Now we have to hope that he'll obey the courts and if he doesn't congress will remove him.
I was very proud of the checks and balances system displayed by the courts last week. Over the past several years they've done a fair job of preventing some of the worst examples of executive branch over-reach. I hope they continue to do so.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1927 on: February 11, 2017, 10:39:30 PM »
Tu quoque? Again?

No, not at all.  YOU are the one criticizing Trump's detractors for this behavior, instead of criticizing Trump.  I'm not suggesting that everyone else should be as shitty as Trump, I'm suggesting that you are giving Trump way too much deference by only criticizing his detractors for the exact behavior that Trump has pioneered and weaponized.

Don't attack me for the logical inconsistencies that you yourself are displaying.  That was the whole point of my post, that this is exactly what Trump has done so well.  You only prove my point by repeating the attack.  Next time, consider following up with "SAD!"
« Last Edit: February 11, 2017, 11:55:36 PM by sol »

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1928 on: February 11, 2017, 11:14:18 PM »
It's time we all got serious about this.  Trump is a world class con man and lots of Americans fell for it.  He doesn't actually care about anything he promised during the campaign (lock her up, drain the swamp, build the wall), and he's only in the white house to make money for himself and his family.  He doesn't care about Americans or America.
I am glad I am not the only one who sees it.  How is anyone taken in by this con artist?  Amazing. 

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1929 on: February 11, 2017, 11:24:50 PM »
It's time we all got serious about this.  Trump is a world class con man and lots of Americans fell for it.  He doesn't actually care about anything he promised during the campaign (lock her up, drain the swamp, build the wall), and he's only in the white house to make money for himself and his family.  He doesn't care about Americans or America.
I am glad I am not the only one who sees it.  How is anyone taken in by this con artist?  Amazing.

Yeah, sorry MM but totally on this side of the fence. It really doesn't matter if this policy or that policy from Trump's desk is consistent with the past, when there is so, so much evidence of actions that are well beyond the pale and that in any previous administration almost certainly would have resulted in congressional investigation at a bare minimum. And this is happening daily. And we're still in the first month of his presidency. I think Pence would also be an awful president but I at least have some faith he would respect the dignity and gravity of the office and make some effort to consider the constitution, even if his interpretations would differ widely from my own. At a minimum, he would actually read the daily briefings and know what the Geneva Conventions (that he very well might still violate) actually mean.

« Last Edit: February 11, 2017, 11:39:27 PM by Lagom »

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1930 on: February 12, 2017, 01:41:03 AM »
Tu quoque? Again?

No, not at all.  YOU are the one criticizing Trump's detractors for this behavior, instead of criticizing Trump.  I'm not suggesting that everyone else should be as shitty as Trump, I'm suggesting that you are giving Trump way too much deference by only criticizing his detractors for the exact behavior that Trump has pioneered and weaponized.

Don't attack me for the logical inconsistencies that you yourself are displaying.  That was the whole point of my post, that this is exactly what Trump has done so well.  You only prove my point by repeating the attack.  Next time, consider following up with "SAD!"
I've been nothing but critical of Trump. He's a pretty terrible person. How many times do I have to say this? No one is arguing he is not a sleazy con man. You can add your strawman to the pile. I will be equally critical to all persons who engage in the same actions as Trump, hold the same views or use the same tactics to attack their opponents while deflecting from the issues. If both sides are engaged in arm flailing about tweets or hand sizes or inauguration suits instead of debating and discussing policies and actions, I will be critical of both sides. The fact that Trump's policies are often awful does not absolve previous administrations of their awful policies. They can both be awful, and have been, and it is perfectly reasonable to be disgusted by both. And when the polices of one awful administration are blamed on another, or held up as models of what should be done instead of the awful things a different administration is doing, I will be critical of those views as well. Criticizing the actions of one side by the other, when they are engaged in the same ineffective, hyperbolic fear-mongering and misinformation is hypocritical. Both sides should be called out for it whenever they engage in such silly behavior. I see no conflict in reason to consistently dislike an action, regardless of who is performing it.

Yeah, sorry MM but totally on this side of the fence. It really doesn't matter if this policy or that policy from Trump's desk is consistent with the past, when there is so, so much evidence of actions that are well beyond the pale and that in any previous administration almost certainly would have resulted in congressional investigation at a bare minimum. And this is happening daily. And we're still in the first month of his presidency.

I will politely disagree, for a couple of reasons. A: I trust that our system of checks and balances, though not perfect, will work. I trust when Trump steps over the line, he will be slapped back. The courts have done this. They have done this with previous administrations. I trust they will continue to do so. If Trump, or any other official, truly performs an action which would disqualify him from holding office I fully expect him to be impeached. It's not as if no president has ever been impeached or been subject to a congressional investigation, so I see little reason this will not happen if it is fully warranted.

B: I would hold each policy presented upon its own merits. I can very strongly dislike Trump, his style, his words, his business practices, his personality and his governing style and still find the good in a policy he has enacted. (I can't think of an example at the moment, except for perhaps the EO regarding crimes against law enforcement officers). What I don't understand is the cognitive dissonance of persons who are only now concerned about issues that have been occurring for years. I guess I am now beginning to understand what it must have been like to be an Obama supporter, and feel that people are blinded by their dislike of a person so much that they will pretend to be bothered by issues or actions that were fine when someone else was performing them.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1931 on: February 12, 2017, 08:09:07 AM »

I will politely disagree, for a couple of reasons. A: I trust that our system of checks and balances, though not perfect, will work. I trust when Trump steps over the line, he will be slapped back. The courts have done this. They have done this with previous administrations. I trust they will continue to do so. If Trump, or any other official, truly performs an action which would disqualify him from holding office I fully expect him to be impeached. It's not as if no president has ever been impeached or been subject to a congressional investigation, so I see little reason this will not happen if it is fully warranted.

B: I would hold each policy presented upon its own merits. I can very strongly dislike Trump, his style, his words, his business practices, his personality and his governing style and still find the good in a policy he has enacted. (I can't think of an example at the moment, except for perhaps the EO regarding crimes against law enforcement officers). What I don't understand is the cognitive dissonance of persons who are only now concerned about issues that have been occurring for years. I guess I am now beginning to understand what it must have been like to be an Obama supporter, and feel that people are blinded by their dislike of a person so much that they will pretend to be bothered by issues or actions that were fine when someone else was performing them.

Regarding A: Currently it seems that only the judiciary is acting as a check on the executive branch.  That is good, insofar as it goes, but congress, currently controlled by the GOP, seems to be completely unwilling to assert their authority against DJT, because (ironically) DJT shows that he will be hostile to anyone who tries to challenge him (see McCain, Blumenthal for latest examples). The GOP in general is motivated by a desire to tear down most of the Dem's policies of the last 8 years.  Right now they seem little more than a rubber stamp.

Regarding B: I, too, will try to view each policy on its merits.  So far I haven't found much to like and a lot I disagree with, but to be fair we haven't even hit any long-lasting changes yet.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1932 on: February 12, 2017, 08:54:03 AM »

Do you have any sources or articles?  If American citizens are being harassed or deported, I would hope that would be front page news.

What I have seen thus far from many sources is a lot of hyperbole.  As many other have stated, we have been deporting for quite some time.  I haven't, thus far, seen a dramatic increase under Trump.
Here is the google results: https://www.google.com/#q=american+citizen+accidentally+deported
And, yes I agree there have long been issues, I just trust the older administrations (Bushs included) to deal with the issue more properly if it was brought up.  I'm not saying any of them did it perfectly just that it is getting worse.
And what more would you like to know about the incident?

I stand corrected, apparently American citizens are occasionally deported.  I glanced through you link and found the this article from NPR - http://www.npr.org/2011/10/24/141500145/in-the-rush-to-deport-expelling-u-s-citizens 

First of all, deporting American citizens is unacceptable.  Having said that, those described in the article often had difficulties the normal person would not have (mental illness or a complicated birth history).  In addition, those articles happened under the previous administration. 

To your point, I have seen no evidence thus far of ICE going door to door or targeting Hispanics based on their look.  Are more hispanics being picked up in immigration raids?  I would assume so since Hispanics represent the largest demographic in this country with immigration status issues - http://immigration.procon.org/view.resource.php?resourceID=000845

I'm all for reining in unconstitutional practices of law enforcement including DHS, Trumps actions thus far on the topic seem to follow the trend of constitutional over reach that was continued under President Obama.  If you would like to criticize Trump, there are plenty of options.  I just don't believe this is one of them yet.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1933 on: February 12, 2017, 09:09:23 AM »
To your point, I have seen no evidence thus far of ICE going door to door or targeting Hispanics based on their look.  Are more hispanics being picked up in immigration raids?  I would assume so since Hispanics represent the largest demographic in this country with immigration status issues - http://immigration.procon.org/view.resource.php?resourceID=000845


I suppose the relevant metric would be whether ICE has or will detain a greater propotion of latinos relative to the total number of illegal immigrants, and whether those individuals are deported more often than non-documented people from other regions.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1934 on: February 12, 2017, 10:12:17 AM »
To your point, I have seen no evidence thus far of ICE going door to door or targeting Hispanics based on their look.  Are more hispanics being picked up in immigration raids?  I would assume so since Hispanics represent the largest demographic in this country with immigration status issues - http://immigration.procon.org/view.resource.php?resourceID=000845


I suppose the relevant metric would be whether ICE has or will detain a greater propotion of latinos relative to the total number of illegal immigrants, and whether those individuals are deported more often than non-documented people from other regions.

That would be one metric.  Another might be why they were deported, how they were targeted, etc.    From the article I attached, 75% of the population in question is from Mexico and Latin America with almost 60% being from Mexico. 

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1935 on: February 12, 2017, 10:57:29 AM »
To your point, I have seen no evidence thus far of ICE going door to door or targeting Hispanics based on their look.  Are more hispanics being picked up in immigration raids?  I would assume so since Hispanics represent the largest demographic in this country with immigration status issues - http://immigration.procon.org/view.resource.php?resourceID=000845


I suppose the relevant metric would be whether ICE has or will detain a greater propotion of latinos relative to the total number of illegal immigrants, and whether those individuals are deported more often than non-documented people from other regions.

That would be one metric.  Another might be why they were deported, how they were targeted, etc.    From the article I attached, 75% of the population in question is from Mexico and Latin America with almost 60% being from Mexico.
IF we are looking for whether or not there is an enforcement bias among groups, why they are deported matters less than whether >75% of all deportees are latino.

Actually what struck me about that graphic was how few of the population in question are from countries in the middle east.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1936 on: February 12, 2017, 11:06:32 AM »

I will politely disagree, for a couple of reasons. A: I trust that our system of checks and balances, though not perfect, will work. I trust when Trump steps over the line, he will be slapped back. The courts have done this. They have done this with previous administrations. I trust they will continue to do so. If Trump, or any other official, truly performs an action which would disqualify him from holding office I fully expect him to be impeached. It's not as if no president has ever been impeached or been subject to a congressional investigation, so I see little reason this will not happen if it is fully warranted.

B: I would hold each policy presented upon its own merits. I can very strongly dislike Trump, his style, his words, his business practices, his personality and his governing style and still find the good in a policy he has enacted. (I can't think of an example at the moment, except for perhaps the EO regarding crimes against law enforcement officers). What I don't understand is the cognitive dissonance of persons who are only now concerned about issues that have been occurring for years. I guess I am now beginning to understand what it must have been like to be an Obama supporter, and feel that people are blinded by their dislike of a person so much that they will pretend to be bothered by issues or actions that were fine when someone else was performing them.

Regarding A: Currently it seems that only the judiciary is acting as a check on the executive branch.  That is good, insofar as it goes, but congress, currently controlled by the GOP, seems to be completely unwilling to assert their authority against DJT, because (ironically) DJT shows that he will be hostile to anyone who tries to challenge him (see McCain, Blumenthal for latest examples). The GOP in general is motivated by a desire to tear down most of the Dem's policies of the last 8 years.  Right now they seem little more than a rubber stamp.

Regarding B: I, too, will try to view each policy on its merits.  So far I haven't found much to like and a lot I disagree with, but to be fair we haven't even hit any long-lasting changes yet.

Also regarding A, I repeat that the previous presidents that were impeached/investigated were done so for reasons that appear trivial compared to some of what has happened thus far. I don't think it's a problem to point this out, it's just me objectively assessing historical examples vis a vis the present, just as you say you are trying to do with specific policies.

Also regarding B, I have no problem arguing the merits of specific policies and have done so on many occasions, sometimes aligning against Democrats, as you very well know. No cognitive dissonance here, and yet I still (politely) disagree with a number of your thoughts. You seem to be setting up your own strawman of using the fact that some are blaming Trump for Obama's policies as evidence that maybe we should all give Trump more latitude (i.e. "Trust the system of checks and balances") than we do. Implication being what? Protests don't help? We should just wait and have faith that the government that is backing literally every move of Trump thus far (absent a couple minor court decisions) , laying groundwork to blame any and all failures on the opposition is going to objectively address the concerns of the constituents they so far appear to be ignoring? That's not how our government works and never has been. Sitting back and waiting to see if the system will do its job assumes the system is run by people who want it to do its job. In reality, the only way for the system to work is to hold their feet to the fire.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2017, 12:14:34 PM by Lagom »

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1937 on: February 12, 2017, 11:11:49 AM »

I will politely disagree, for a couple of reasons. A: I trust that our system of checks and balances, though not perfect, will work. I trust when Trump steps over the line, he will be slapped back. The courts have done this. They have done this with previous administrations. I trust they will continue to do so. If Trump, or any other official, truly performs an action which would disqualify him from holding office I fully expect him to be impeached. It's not as if no president has ever been impeached or been subject to a congressional investigation, so I see little reason this will not happen if it is fully warranted.

B: I would hold each policy presented upon its own merits. I can very strongly dislike Trump, his style, his words, his business practices, his personality and his governing style and still find the good in a policy he has enacted. (I can't think of an example at the moment, except for perhaps the EO regarding crimes against law enforcement officers). What I don't understand is the cognitive dissonance of persons who are only now concerned about issues that have been occurring for years. I guess I am now beginning to understand what it must have been like to be an Obama supporter, and feel that people are blinded by their dislike of a person so much that they will pretend to be bothered by issues or actions that were fine when someone else was performing them.

Regarding A: Currently it seems that only the judiciary is acting as a check on the executive branch.  That is good, insofar as it goes, but congress, currently controlled by the GOP, seems to be completely unwilling to assert their authority against DJT, because (ironically) DJT shows that he will be hostile to anyone who tries to challenge him (see McCain, Blumenthal for latest examples). The GOP in general is motivated by a desire to tear down most of the Dem's policies of the last 8 years.  Right now they seem little more than a rubber stamp.

Regarding B: I, too, will try to view each policy on its merits.  So far I haven't found much to like and a lot I disagree with, but to be fair we haven't even hit any long-lasting changes yet.

Also regarding A, I repeat that the previous presidents that were impeached/investigated were done so for reasons that appear trivial compared to some of what has happened thus far. I don't think it's a problem to point this out, it's just me objectively assessing historical examples vis a vis the present, just as you say you are trying to do with specific policies.

Also regarding B, I have no problem arguing the merits of specific policies and have done so on many occasions, sometimes aligning against Democrats, as you very well know. No cognitive dissonance here, and yet I still (politely) disagree with a number of your thoughts. You seem to be setting up your own strawman of using the fact that some are blaming Trump for Obama's policies as evidence that maybe we should all give Trump more latitude (i.e. "Trust the system of checks and balances" than we do). Implication being what? Protests don't help? We should just wait and have faith that the government that (absent a couple minor court decisions) is backing literally every move of Trump thus far, avoiding constituents and laying groundwork to blame any and all failures on the opposition? That's not how our government works and never has been. Sitting back and waiting to see if the system will do its job assumes the system is run by people who want it to do its job. In reality, the only way for the system to work is to hold their feet to the fire.

(not in response to anyone in particular, just somewhat tangent)

The sentiment of "just let the system do its job" is somewhat ironic, given that the citizens of the country are supposed to be what drive the system in the first place.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1938 on: February 12, 2017, 11:25:54 AM »
(not in response to anyone in particular, just somewhat tangent)

The sentiment of "just let the system do its job" is somewhat ironic, given that the citizens of the country are supposed to be what drive the system in the first place.

Agreed. Although we are now back at the point where someone will chime in to say "we put up with 8 years of Obama without throwing hissy fits over it." And that, my friends, is what cognitive dissonance actually looks like.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1939 on: February 12, 2017, 02:10:49 PM »
To your point, I have seen no evidence thus far of ICE going door to door or targeting Hispanics based on their look.  Are more hispanics being picked up in immigration raids?  I would assume so since Hispanics represent the largest demographic in this country with immigration status issues - http://immigration.procon.org/view.resource.php?resourceID=000845


I suppose the relevant metric would be whether ICE has or will detain a greater proportion of latinos relative to the total number of illegal immigrants, and whether those individuals are deported more often than non-documented people from other regions.

That would be one metric.  Another might be why they were deported, how they were targeted, etc.    From the article I attached, 75% of the population in question is from Mexico and Latin America with almost 60% being from Mexico.
IF we are looking for whether or not there is an enforcement bias among groups, why they are deported matters less than whether >75% of all deportees are latino.

Actually what struck me about that graphic was how few of the population in question are from countries in the middle east.

The enforcement policy has been focused on the southern border and criminals.  The focus on the southern border will show a clear bias towards hispanics because of the population in Mexico and South American.  That's not racist, we are just plugging the biggest hole first.  If Canadians were streaming across the border, I suspect we would do the same with the northern border.

If we were to look at deportations excluding those caught very soon after entry (ie typically the Southern border), I don't know what the numbers would look like as far as racial profile.  If we are focusing on law breakers and one ethnic group is over represented in that group, it is possible that a racial group could be over represented due to factors other than racial profiling.

Incidentally, I'm not saying some hispanic's haven't been profiled.  I'm simply saying the fact that a large proportion of those here illegally are hispanic and it stands to reason they would represent a large portion of deportations due to that. 

In addition, there was an assertion that ICE is going door to door in hispanic immigrant neighborhoods asking for papers.  Frankly if ICE did that (and I'm not advocating they do), I suspect they wouldn't be deporting in the low numbers they do.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1940 on: February 12, 2017, 04:02:17 PM »

The enforcement policy has been focused on the southern border and criminals.  The focus on the southern border will show a clear bias towards hispanics because of the population in Mexico and South American.  That's not racist, we are just plugging the biggest hole first.  If Canadians were streaming across the border, I suspect we would do the same with the northern border.


If the purpose is keeping America safe, clearly we are not.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/fbi-docs-trump-fixated-on-wrong-border/ar-AAmGG2B?li=BBnb7Kz

Where is my Canadian border wall?


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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1941 on: February 12, 2017, 04:17:08 PM »

The enforcement policy has been focused on the southern border and criminals.  The focus on the southern border will show a clear bias towards hispanics because of the population in Mexico and South American.  That's not racist, we are just plugging the biggest hole first.  If Canadians were streaming across the border, I suspect we would do the same with the northern border.


If the purpose is keeping America safe, clearly we are not.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/fbi-docs-trump-fixated-on-wrong-border/ar-AAmGG2B?li=BBnb7Kz

Where is my Canadian border wall?

At least three quarters of those here illegally came from southern border.  My comment was in reference to that, not terrorism.  On the of those in this country illegally, Canada doesn't even make the top 10. Lastly, Canada has a stable govt and low level of violence.  Many areas of Mexico are in turmoil and the govt has lost control.  Given that set of facts, the southern border seems more relevant.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1942 on: February 12, 2017, 05:25:56 PM »

The enforcement policy has been focused on the southern border and criminals.  The focus on the southern border will show a clear bias towards hispanics because of the population in Mexico and South American.  That's not racist, we are just plugging the biggest hole first.  If Canadians were streaming across the border, I suspect we would do the same with the northern border.


If the purpose is keeping America safe, clearly we are not.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/fbi-docs-trump-fixated-on-wrong-border/ar-AAmGG2B?li=BBnb7Kz

Where is my Canadian border wall?

At least three quarters of those here illegally came from southern border.  My comment was in reference to that, not terrorism.  On the of those in this country illegally, Canada doesn't even make the top 10. Lastly, Canada has a stable govt and low level of violence.  Many areas of Mexico are in turmoil and the govt has lost control.  Given that set of facts, the southern border seems more relevant.

I am unable to find evidence to your claim that >75% of all undocumented immigrants come from our south border. I am seeing evidence that as many as 40% have come from the air, as many as 50% are here on expired visa's, and that southern border crossings have already been reduced by over 90% in the past decade. http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/border-issues/2016/10/09/how-many-mexicans-actually-cross-border-illegally/91280026/

It appears to be true that for 10 states, 75% of the undocumented immigrants are from Mexico. It does not say how they arrived here. The threshold of 75% is not met for the other 40 states. Fact #5 here:
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/11/20/what-we-know-about-illegal-immigration-from-mexico/

I do understand that safety and illegal immigration are 2 separate issues. I took your comments regarding the Mexican Government to mean that the safety of the United States was one of the reasons for the wall. That is why I mentioned that in regard to SAFETY, a northern wall makes more sense than a southern one. In my opinion, both ideas are ridiculous.

Enjoy your evening.


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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1943 on: February 12, 2017, 07:19:27 PM »
So, I haven't kept up with being trolled by the usual crowd here, but went to a real life camp-out in Louisiana with an ex-military guy from Texas for BoyScouts.  Wow what an eye-opener!  I don't necessarily disagree with how the ex-military guy feels, that Hillary wasnt expected to support the military vs. the proactive way Trump promised not to repeat the mistakes of the past.  We listened to Fox News on his Sirius Satellite Radio which was slightly grating, but even he turned it off when people openly yelled at each other (disagreeing about the ridiculous KKK guy demonstrating in Berkely, CA).  Basically, he is worried that the US has become fat and lazy which lead to the military not being ready for the Iraq Invasion which is why it has gone so poorly ever since.  The proliferation of terrorism is directly a result of drawing down our military after successful campaigns.

And as we drove though small-town Texas and Louisiana, there are so many disaffected people on the outskirts, living in trailers and small hollowed-out towns.  There are a lot of Americans barely hanging on.  Of course they are going to vote for the guy that promises he will bring back the better days before modern life made obsolete.  Having a big family and high school education should not be a liability. 

It made me quite sad, to think that Trump has no idea of what he steps on to enjoy his first world, five star, first class lifestyle on the backs of these dupes.  This guy should be sweating though his bedsheets with the responsibility and pressure, but I don't get the impression he cares about much other than winning shallow daily opinion polls. 

 I only wish Democrats had a better, more inclusive message - that they would burnish the military in a respectful, inclusive, proactive way.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1944 on: February 12, 2017, 07:57:42 PM »
A relevant presentation that I came across today - it is worth the time to watch:  https://www.ted.com/talks/robb_willer_how_to_have_better_political_conversations

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1945 on: February 12, 2017, 07:58:44 PM »
Frankly, I'm over it.  I think we should stop pandering to the military.

I have huge respect for what the US military has done in about 75% of engagements in the past century, and some of the other 25% isn't even their fault.  But the world is changing, and we no longer need to devote a third of our GDP to supporting 1.5 million soldiers.  The US military is grossly oversized for modern warfare and should probably shrink by 5%/yr for the next decade.

Our current service members deserve to cash in on the luxurious promise that have been made.  Veterans deserve better than they have gotten.  But that does not mean that from this day forward every D student from backwoods Kentucky deserves a free college education and a lifetime of government welfare checks just because he signs up to cook powered eggs for a carrier group.   The military needs to evolve, and Trump's promises of increase spending are not the way to do it.

You can honor our servicemembers and our great military traditions without making asinine promise about saving rural America with expanded military recruiting/spending.  Those poor folks you saw are being lied to by a con man who does not care about them or their plight as he ransacks our country for his personal profit.  The military should be disgusted that a draft dodging failed businessman without an ounce of public service in his whole body is now commander in chief.  He disgraces everything our military stands for, and yet they love him because he panders to their own perceived self interest.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2017, 08:30:28 PM by sol »

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1946 on: February 12, 2017, 08:20:50 PM »
I guess I would just like to quickly state that pandering to the military will get you far.  We are idiot civilians for the most part here if we pretend that vets and current military think like us (which is one of the significant roots of society).  For better or worse, most of humanity is defined by physical conflict, not academic conflict.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1947 on: February 12, 2017, 08:47:39 PM »

Also regarding B, I have no problem arguing the merits of specific policies and have done so on many occasions, sometimes aligning against Democrats, as you very well know. No cognitive dissonance here, and yet I still (politely) disagree with a number of your thoughts. You seem to be setting up your own strawman of using the fact that some are blaming Trump for Obama's policies as evidence that maybe we should all give Trump more latitude (i.e. "Trust the system of checks and balances") than we do. Implication being what? Protests don't help? We should just wait and have faith that the government that is backing literally every move of Trump thus far (absent a couple minor court decisions) , laying groundwork to blame any and all failures on the opposition is going to objectively address the concerns of the constituents they so far appear to be ignoring? That's not how our government works and never has been. Sitting back and waiting to see if the system will do its job assumes the system is run by people who want it to do its job. In reality, the only way for the system to work is to hold their feet to the fire.
I was not arguing for 'giving Trump more latitude." I absolutely agree he should be held accountable for all of his actions. Unfortunately, he was elected to the POTUS and his pattern of behavior is pretty well set and quite open to view. He has massive authority, but not unlimited power. Right now not enough congressional representatives are opposing him, and indeed both sides seem to be more content to simply sit back and blame the other side for everything rather than work together productively, so I will have to settle for the court stopping the actions that are in line with their authority. Peaceful protest could help. Motivating one's congressional representatives to support bills more in line with one's beliefs could help. I don't think railing against Trump for his many personal faults is going to be an effective way to combat his leadership direction. Debating and informing oneself on the issues and policies is the first step - how else can one choose a direction if one is uninformed? Blaming Trump for Obama policies or actions is not the mark of an informed person and not an effective use of one's resources, nor logically consistent, if one feels that Trump is the problem. Instead of protesting and waving signs with Trump puns on them because Obama deported more people and broke up more immigrant families than any other administration, one should be calling on their congressperson to push for immigration reform under the current administration. It's about time for it. 


Holding congress's feet to the fire I think is a great way to effect change, imo. I don't feel trying to 'hold feet to the fire' will be productive with Trump - I personally feel a person with his personality style may be much more responsive to positive action proposals than negative reinforcement i.e. "Mr. President, in your reformation of immigration laws, I would like to see you use your power to accomplish X" rather than "Mr. President, your action X is disgraceful to our nation and nobody likes it. It's the worst. Please stop doing X." I feel he feeds on conflict and uses it as a distraction. Removing the conflict and focusing on actions Trump could perform, rather than telling him what he shouldn't do, may be the way to motivate him to more appropriate actions. Probably I'm misreading him. Probably am. But overall I feel the POTUS is so difficult to reach that for an average person such as myself I feel I have a much higher chance of effecting the change I wish to see by contacting my congresspersons and working through them. 
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1948 on: February 12, 2017, 10:16:23 PM »
Well I definitely agree anyone who wants to effect change in the government is much better served focusing on congress than the president.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1949 on: February 12, 2017, 10:55:43 PM »
Well I definitely agree anyone who wants to effect change in the government is much better served focusing on congress than the president.
How did we venture so far away from the OP?  Oh yeah, Trump :)
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