Author Topic: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?  (Read 498031 times)

Malaysia41

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1650 on: February 01, 2017, 02:15:04 PM »
Just got word of a draft EO adding additional countries to the ban.  If signed, this will cost me a lot in travel already booked.  Might have to move to another country (if wife's family can not visit, I'm sure this will be the result).  This is not good for America and really depressing. 

Why didn't I travel last year????

Now I know it's all gone to shit. A dour, straight post from dragoncar. Not a single clause of wit. This is not good for America and really depressing.

edit: time to sell more VTSAX.

dragoncar

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1651 on: February 01, 2017, 02:19:07 PM »
Just got word of a draft EO adding additional countries to the ban.  If signed, this will cost me a lot in travel already booked.  Might have to move to another country (if wife's family can not visit, I'm sure this will be the result).  This is not good for America and really depressing. 

Why didn't I travel last year????

Now I know it's all gone to shit. A dour, straight post from dragoncar. Not a single clause of wit. This is not good for America and really depressing.

edit: time to sell more VTSAX.

At least we have the financial means to get through this.*  I really feel for those without.  Maybe if I bone up on immigration/constitutional law (this is not my area of expertise) I can help some people before I go.

*A cheaper country might even be good for us, financially.
« Last Edit: February 01, 2017, 02:30:34 PM by dragoncar »

Kris

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1652 on: February 01, 2017, 03:26:54 PM »
I'm honestly torn about the Supreme Court. 

On one hand it doesn't look this nominee is horrible.  If anything he is adamantly on the record as not showing any deference to other branches and focusing only on the law, which might be good about inevitable Trump related legal challenges.

He is very conservative though and tends to side with religion interests.

On the other hand, Garland was also an exemplary middle of the road choice that was previously approved on voice vote and we see how the (R)s treated him, so turnaround is fair play.

If the dems do roadblock him, the nuclear option will be used, and political capital will be spent now instead of on a possible future selection (like if RBG dies).

Just sad that after 200+ years, our most unique political activity (the senate) where the minority party holds significant power will inevitably be neutered with the nuclear option (if not now, then soon).
This is how I feel.  The dems are going to tilt at this windmill, when it could be reasonable to accept him, and burn out before the next appointment, which could be much, much worse. Of course, the classic, ever helpful "But they did it too!!!" Will ring out from people interested only in their own needs, and not true progress for the country.

I really doubt it. There are a number of Democrats in right-leaning states who won't dare oppose him, so he'll get through in the end.

Poundwise

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1653 on: February 01, 2017, 03:42:27 PM »
If the dems do roadblock him, the nuclear option will be used, and political capital will be spent now instead of on a possible future selection (like if RBG dies).

 Had it not been for Garland, maybe there would have been a case for an easy confirmation. But this is not a time for building up  political capital... the Reps have not shown themselves to be honorable of late, anyway.  This is where Dems show that they have the toughness to hold together.

RangerOne

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1654 on: February 01, 2017, 04:00:56 PM »
With regard to the pick, it is a done deal, but the Dems probably shouldn't back down because there is no point in saving an option for later that doesn't work. You may as well make the Repubs change the rules now and get it over with. If you don't have a majority in Congress you lose and the other side gets to appoint whoever the fuck they want.

It sucks and it shouldn't be that way. In the end it has more potential to work out poorly for both sides, but it is how the rules work currently.

That is basically a summary of this:
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/01/make-republicans-nuke-the-filibuster-to-confirm-gorsuch.html

GuitarStv

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1655 on: February 01, 2017, 07:14:16 PM »
I'm honestly torn about the Supreme Court. 

On one hand it doesn't look this nominee is horrible.  If anything he is adamantly on the record as not showing any deference to other branches and focusing only on the law, which might be good about inevitable Trump related legal challenges.

He is very conservative though and tends to side with religion interests.

On the other hand, Garland was also an exemplary middle of the road choice that was previously approved on voice vote and we see how the (R)s treated him, so turnaround is fair play.

If the dems do roadblock him, the nuclear option will be used, and political capital will be spent now instead of on a possible future selection (like if RBG dies).

Just sad that after 200+ years, our most unique political activity (the senate) where the minority party holds significant power will inevitably be neutered with the nuclear option (if not now, then soon).
This is how I feel.  The dems are going to tilt at this windmill, when it could be reasonable to accept him, and burn out before the next appointment, which could be much, much worse. Of course, the classic, ever helpful "But they did it too!!!" Will ring out from people interested only in their own needs, and not true progress for the country.

The republicans abused the system to prevent nomination of a perfectly acceptable appointee.  If the Democrats do the same, it will either:
- force the Republicans to change in rules to something that prevents the type of self-serving behaviour that they pioneered (America benefits)
- prevent nomination of the Republican selected judge (No real change to America)
If the Democrats roll over, then the next time that they need to appoint someone what will stop the Republicans from abusing the system again?

In this case, opposing the nomination out of hand will most likely serve to strengthen America and is true progress for the country.

Metric Mouse

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1656 on: February 01, 2017, 07:17:14 PM »
If the dems do roadblock him, the nuclear option will be used, and political capital will be spent now instead of on a possible future selection (like if RBG dies).

 Had it not been for Garland, maybe there would have been a case for an easy confirmation. But this is not a time for building up  political capital... the Reps have not shown themselves to be honorable of late, anyway.  This is where Dems show that they have the toughness to hold together.
I just love how these exact same arguments were used by the other side during the last presidency. It's very frustrating that neither side will work with the other, the only reason being that they're the other side.

Metric Mouse

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1657 on: February 01, 2017, 07:21:28 PM »
The republicans abused the system to prevent nomination of a perfectly acceptable appointee.  If the Democrats do the same, it will either:
- force the Republicans to change in rules to something that prevents the type of self-serving behaviour that they pioneered (America benefits)
- prevent nomination of the Republican selected judge (No real change to America)
If the Democrats roll over, then the next time that they need to appoint someone what will stop the Republicans from abusing the system again?

In this case, opposing the nomination out of hand will most likely serve to strengthen America and is true progress for the country.
We'd be back in the same boat. I disagree that there is 'no real change to America' from congressional deadlock. I believe in the long-term it is detrimental, and when both parties put their political affiliations before the functioning of the country, it gets me a bit depressed about the entire system.

sol

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1658 on: February 01, 2017, 08:12:47 PM »
I just love how these exact same arguments were used by the other side during the last presidency. It's very frustrating that neither side will work with the other, the only reason being that they're the other side.

I don't see the same equivalency that you do.  Republicans broke with protocol on this point.  You can't blame the Democrats for that decision.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1659 on: February 01, 2017, 09:05:52 PM »
Holy Crap, it's already happening.  We are all too distracted by Supreme Court implications (do we block this somewhat too far Right but not that bad guy) and Tweets (his comments on Frederick Douglass are so easy to ridicule) that we miss the fact that Trump really only cares about making money

As such, he is severely compromised and everyone except him and his inner circle should be terrified.

Metric Mouse

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1660 on: February 01, 2017, 09:10:44 PM »
I just love how these exact same arguments were used by the other side during the last presidency. It's very frustrating that neither side will work with the other, the only reason being that they're the other side.

I don't see the same equivalency that you do.  Republicans broke with protocol on this point.  You can't blame the Democrats for that decision.
I would totally blame them for not working to fix the system. If "well they did it first" is the only argument for an action that everyone agrees is improper, I will completely blame both sides for engaging in the same behavior.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1661 on: February 01, 2017, 09:30:55 PM »
I just love how these exact same arguments were used by the other side during the last presidency. It's very frustrating that neither side will work with the other, the only reason being that they're the other side.

I don't see the same equivalency that you do.  Republicans broke with protocol on this point.  You can't blame the Democrats for that decision.
I would totally blame them for not working to fix the system. If "well they did it first" is the only argument for an action that everyone agrees is improper, I will completely blame both sides for engaging in the same behavior.
Seriously, do you think Democrats or liberals are just plain evil and dismiss them?  Did you see my last post about Trump using his businesses to profit off of his run for Presidency.  This is probably not an isolated incident.  After Obama and GW and Clinton, I didn't like much of what was going on, but I don't think any of the recent Presidential runs were money hungry like Trump.  If he doesn't make billions and move markets, he probably will be #Sad. For all we know, sitting atop incredible 'potential energy', he is planning out how to make a great deal of what once was a 14T economy flow to Donald Jr., Ivanka / Kushner, Eric, and even a few hundred million to Tiffany.  We've handed over our global face to the fox in the henhouse.  Sadly, he will also blow this up for his kids but we are all strapped to the same missile.  What once was destined to challenge the Universe and venture to Mars is now targeted on Iran and moving around rocks on our quickly receding land masses.

Metric Mouse

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1662 on: February 01, 2017, 09:35:28 PM »
I just love how these exact same arguments were used by the other side during the last presidency. It's very frustrating that neither side will work with the other, the only reason being that they're the other side.

I don't see the same equivalency that you do.  Republicans broke with protocol on this point.  You can't blame the Democrats for that decision.
I would totally blame them for not working to fix the system. If "well they did it first" is the only argument for an action that everyone agrees is improper, I will completely blame both sides for engaging in the same behavior.
Seriously, do you think Democrats or liberals are just plain evil and dismiss them?  Did you see my last post about Trump using his businesses to profit off of his run for Presidency.  This is probably not an isolated incident.  After Obama and GW and Clinton, I didn't like much of what was going on, but I don't think any of the recent Presidential runs were money hungry like Trump.  If he doesn't make billions and move markets, he probably will be #Sad. For all we know, sitting atop incredible 'potential energy', he is planning out how to make a great deal of what once was a 14T economy flow to Donald Jr., Ivanka / Kushner, Eric, and even a few hundred million to Tiffany.  We've handed over our global face to the fox in the henhouse.  Sadly, he will also blow this up for his kids but we are all strapped to the same missile.  What once was destined to challenge the Universe and venture to Mars is now targeted on Iran and moving around rocks on our quickly receding land masses.
So how is stonewalling a quite acceptable (by most accounts) SCOTUS judge nomination helping to stop Trump from immoral and illegal business dealings?

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1663 on: February 01, 2017, 10:05:28 PM »
(not quoting a wall of text)
I think that SCOTUS is a long term (more significant than normal) appointment.  Maybe it is politicized, but stonewalling should not immediately raise hackles.  For some multi-decade decision, time should be taken.  Maybe that is the problem in this modern world, in fact, that we make permanent decisions about our future in a week.

Lagom

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1664 on: February 01, 2017, 10:09:13 PM »
(not quoting a wall of text)
I think that SCOTUS is a long term (more significant than normal) appointment.  Maybe it is politicized, but stonewalling should not immediately raise hackles.  For some multi-decade decision, time should be taken.  Maybe that is the problem in this modern world, in fact, that we make permanent decisions about our future in a week.

Or in rage/revenge-filled seconds, in the case of our current POTUS.

Metric Mouse

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1665 on: February 01, 2017, 10:13:10 PM »
Absolutely the decision should be carefully weighed. There is a process in place for considering SCOTUS appointments, and as far as I can tell that process is not broken. Republicans did an end run around that process with the last nomination. Suggesting that the Democrats attempt, or supporting for, the same maneuver is not a positive direction for political action in this country, and makes them just as bad as Republicans. (IMO)

If the nominee is not suited or unwanted, then they should be voted down, regardless of the party nominating them.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1666 on: February 01, 2017, 10:20:26 PM »
I honestly feel like I'm living through the movie "Idiocracy".  Surely this was a parody on what was possible but not real.  And yet here we are.  Trump now pulling out his 'world class diplomacy' on Iran.  Won't it be awesome to watch a first world country withdraw from the global economy (that benefits it disproportionately), closes its borders to cheap labor and talented academics from other countries, and uses significant assets to attack third world countries (as opposed to maybe renewable energy or space programs) .

Lagom

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1667 on: February 01, 2017, 10:43:16 PM »
I have yet to hear a convincing argument why we should be treating Iran like we do. There are many other countries that sponsor terrorism against the US and our allies at a much more demonstrable level. Iran is also an enemy of pretty much all of those countries and yet because we have such deep business ties with them (looking at you Saudi Arabia), we pretend like Iran is the problem. A war with them is probably among the scariest realistic impacts I could see emerging from a Trump presidency.
« Last Edit: February 01, 2017, 10:48:00 PM by Lagom »

dragoncar

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1668 on: February 01, 2017, 11:57:50 PM »
I honestly feel like I'm living through the movie "Idiocracy".  Surely this was a parody on what was possible but not real.  And yet here we are.  Trump now pulling out his 'world class diplomacy' on Iran.  Won't it be awesome to watch a first world country withdraw from the global economy (that benefits it disproportionately), closes its borders to cheap labor and talented academics from other countries, and uses significant assets to attack third world countries (as opposed to maybe renewable energy or space programs) .

There are now too many people in our simulation and it's breaking down

Unique User

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1669 on: February 02, 2017, 04:36:24 AM »
I honestly feel like I'm living through the movie "Idiocracy".  Surely this was a parody on what was possible but not real.  And yet here we are.  Trump now pulling out his 'world class diplomacy' on Iran.  Won't it be awesome to watch a first world country withdraw from the global economy (that benefits it disproportionately), closes its borders to cheap labor and talented academics from other countries, and uses significant assets to attack third world countries (as opposed to maybe renewable energy or space programs) .

There are now too many people in our simulation and it's breaking down

The news this morning is unreal.  This is what happens when you put an unqualified egotistical individual with anger management issues being whispered to by a anti-Islamic Leninist in the White House.  Absolute f&%$ing chaos. 

nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1670 on: February 02, 2017, 05:42:31 AM »
Well, according to the AP, Trump got angry with the PM of Australia over a pre-existing deal on refugees which was covered under the EO he signed.  Apparently he bragged about the size of his (ahem) electoral win and crowd sizes, then hung up.

Where in his "first 100 days" strategy did it say "piss off every one of our staunch allies"?

Gin1984

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1671 on: February 02, 2017, 06:17:39 AM »
I just love how these exact same arguments were used by the other side during the last presidency. It's very frustrating that neither side will work with the other, the only reason being that they're the other side.

I don't see the same equivalency that you do.  Republicans broke with protocol on this point.  You can't blame the Democrats for that decision.
I would totally blame them for not working to fix the system. If "well they did it first" is the only argument for an action that everyone agrees is improper, I will completely blame both sides for engaging in the same behavior.
Seriously, do you think Democrats or liberals are just plain evil and dismiss them?  Did you see my last post about Trump using his businesses to profit off of his run for Presidency.  This is probably not an isolated incident.  After Obama and GW and Clinton, I didn't like much of what was going on, but I don't think any of the recent Presidential runs were money hungry like Trump.  If he doesn't make billions and move markets, he probably will be #Sad. For all we know, sitting atop incredible 'potential energy', he is planning out how to make a great deal of what once was a 14T economy flow to Donald Jr., Ivanka / Kushner, Eric, and even a few hundred million to Tiffany.  We've handed over our global face to the fox in the henhouse.  Sadly, he will also blow this up for his kids but we are all strapped to the same missile.  What once was destined to challenge the Universe and venture to Mars is now targeted on Iran and moving around rocks on our quickly receding land masses.
So how is stonewalling a quite acceptable (by most accounts) SCOTUS judge nomination helping to stop Trump from immoral and illegal business dealings?
For many democrats, he is not acceptable.  He is no way moderate (like the previous proposed SCOTUS judge).  Frankly the dems should be fighting against him.  The only reason to consider him "acceptable" is in comparison to the crazies he has otherwise nominated. 

nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1672 on: February 02, 2017, 06:31:05 AM »
Many people consider him "acceptable" because he will (presumably) not shift the balance of the court.  Its worth mentioning that the court has been conservative since the early 1970s. With this affirmation the most likely scenario is a court that retains a conservative position for the next decade or more, regardless of whether or not RBG, SGB or Kennedy are replaced during this presidential term.

Inaya

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1673 on: February 02, 2017, 07:16:46 AM »
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/02/trump-immigrants/515310/ 

From the article:

"The language is vague, but immigration law experts I spoke with on background said it might mean that millions of legal immigrants who have ever received public assistance—as half of native-born Americans currently do—would be targeted for deportation. "

I left a message on one of my senators' vmails to fight this vigorously.
But... but... but... Trump only wants to deport illegal immigrants. Because they're breaking the law.

Seriously I don't get this. Immigrants pay their taxes just like everyone who is native born (well, except Trump), so they have the right to the same social services as every other taxpayer.

NoStacheOhio

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1674 on: February 02, 2017, 07:56:48 AM »
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/02/trump-immigrants/515310/ 

From the article:

"The language is vague, but immigration law experts I spoke with on background said it might mean that millions of legal immigrants who have ever received public assistance—as half of native-born Americans currently do—would be targeted for deportation. "

I left a message on one of my senators' vmails to fight this vigorously.
But... but... but... Trump only wants to deport illegal immigrants. Because they're breaking the law.

Seriously I don't get this. Immigrants pay their taxes just like everyone who is native born (well, except Trump), so they have the right to the same social services as every other taxpayer.

Per his conversation with the Australian PM yesterday, individuals applying for refugee status through official channels are now illegal immigrants. Potato/potahto?

golden1

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1675 on: February 02, 2017, 08:24:25 AM »
Quote
There is a process in place for considering SCOTUS appointments, and as far as I can tell that process is not broken. Republicans did an end run around that process with the last nomination. Suggesting that the Democrats attempt, or supporting for, the same maneuver is not a positive direction for political action in this country, and makes them just as bad as Republicans. (IMO)

The Republicans stole a seat, and got away with it.  So the process IS broken.  If the democrats take the high road, guess what will happen next time this same scenario happens.  They will pull the same shit again.  And again.  The Republicans decided long ago that demographics aren't working in their favor, so they would bend the system to the point of breaking to ensure minority rule. 


Just Joe

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1676 on: February 02, 2017, 10:10:09 AM »
+1. One word "stategery." As batshit crazy as Trump is, he knows exactly what he is doing. It's amazing (well not really) how many of his die hard supporters are still defending him all in the name of "jobs and border security."

I've been wondering how many of those WalMart shoppers (KMart, Target, etc) will appreciate the tariffs and prices that tariffs might lead to. The big box shoppers I know will drive miles to get something on sale and cheap and almost always made in China.

In one sentence they'll talk about what a great deal they got on their thing. In the next sentence they'll begin a lecture about jobs and immigrants and Chinese junk.

So border security and foreign Muslim terrorists are suddenly a huge problem? Trump's policies will likely radicalize more folks on already easily influenced.

accolay

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1677 on: February 02, 2017, 10:10:58 AM »
Absolutely the decision should be carefully weighed. There is a process in place for considering SCOTUS appointments, and as far as I can tell that process is not broken. Republicans did an end run around that process with the last nomination. Suggesting that the Democrats attempt, or supporting for, the same maneuver is not a positive direction for political action in this country, and makes them just as bad as Republicans. (IMO)

If the nominee is not suited or unwanted, then they should be voted down, regardless of the party nominating them.

The process broke during the last presidency. Were you not there? 10 months and no hearings and no vote seems pretty broken to me.

I for someone who votes for Democrats, and for a lot of progressives and liberals who vote for Democrats don't mind if they stonewall. Give us a nominee that we like and then maybe we can talk.

accolay

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1678 on: February 02, 2017, 10:19:26 AM »
The Republicans stole a seat, and got away with it.  So the process IS broken.  If the democrats take the high road, guess what will happen next time this same scenario happens.  They will pull the same shit again.  And again.  The Republicans decided long ago that demographics aren't working in their favor, so they would bend the system to the point of breaking to ensure minority rule.

I would say beyond the demographics, look what's happened in South Dakota, a largely Republican red state:

http://www.argusleader.com/story/news/politics/2017/02/01/sd-senate-strikes-voter-approved-ethics-law/97333962/

That's pretty fucked up if you ask me.

SisterX

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1679 on: February 02, 2017, 11:27:27 AM »
Absolutely the decision should be carefully weighed. There is a process in place for considering SCOTUS appointments, and as far as I can tell that process is not broken. Republicans did an end run around that process with the last nomination. Suggesting that the Democrats attempt, or supporting for, the same maneuver is not a positive direction for political action in this country, and makes them just as bad as Republicans. (IMO)

If the nominee is not suited or unwanted, then they should be voted down, regardless of the party nominating them.

The process broke during the last presidency. Were you not there? 10 months and no hearings and no vote seems pretty broken to me.

I for someone who votes for Democrats, and for a lot of progressives and liberals who vote for Democrats don't mind if they stonewall. Give us a nominee that we like and then maybe we can talk.

Don't bother. MM will give lip service to "one side's just as bad as the other" but will always defend the Republican moves. "Oh sure, they did this bad thing but Dems should be held to a higher standard than that. Even if Republicans are about to tank the country and doing something deeply unpopular, Dems shouldn't fight dirty. I'd lose [my already non-existent] respect for them." Go back and read his comments. That's pretty much how they all go.

I agree. Stonewall the shit out of this guy. He's not for religious freedom unless your definition of that is the freedom for Christians to impose their beliefs on others. He might be a moderate Republican, but he's not, in any sense of the word, an actual moderate. That was Garland, the nominee that Republicans shut things down over. The one they changed the rules of engagement over. Fuck them.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1680 on: February 02, 2017, 11:50:58 AM »
Absolutely the decision should be carefully weighed. There is a process in place for considering SCOTUS appointments, and as far as I can tell that process is not broken. Republicans did an end run around that process with the last nomination. Suggesting that the Democrats attempt, or supporting for, the same maneuver is not a positive direction for political action in this country, and makes them just as bad as Republicans. (IMO)

If the nominee is not suited or unwanted, then they should be voted down, regardless of the party nominating them.

The process broke during the last presidency. Were you not there? 10 months and no hearings and no vote seems pretty broken to me.

I for someone who votes for Democrats, and for a lot of progressives and liberals who vote for Democrats don't mind if they stonewall. Give us a nominee that we like and then maybe we can talk.

Don't bother. MM will give lip service to "one side's just as bad as the other" but will always defend the Republican moves. "Oh sure, they did this bad thing but Dems should be held to a higher standard than that. Even if Republicans are about to tank the country and doing something deeply unpopular, Dems shouldn't fight dirty. I'd lose [my already non-existent] respect for them." Go back and read his comments. That's pretty much how they all go.

I agree. Stonewall the shit out of this guy. He's not for religious freedom unless your definition of that is the freedom for Christians to impose their beliefs on others. He might be a moderate Republican, but he's not, in any sense of the word, an actual moderate. That was Garland, the nominee that Republicans shut things down over. The one they changed the rules of engagement over. Fuck them.


^^^^^Agree, stonewall him if they don't agree to at least give Garland a hearing.  I had my fingers crossed for Hardiman, there was always the chance that he was a Souter in disguise.  He was a Notre Dame grad, there the same time I was and although ND is conservative there is (or at least was) a strong social justice undercurrent. 

Metric Mouse

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1681 on: February 02, 2017, 11:58:16 AM »
Absolutely the decision should be carefully weighed. There is a process in place for considering SCOTUS appointments, and as far as I can tell that process is not broken. Republicans did an end run around that process with the last nomination. Suggesting that the Democrats attempt, or supporting for, the same maneuver is not a positive direction for political action in this country, and makes them just as bad as Republicans. (IMO)

If the nominee is not suited or unwanted, then they should be voted down, regardless of the party nominating them.

The process broke during the last presidency. Were you not there? 10 months and no hearings and no vote seems pretty broken to me.

I for someone who votes for Democrats, and for a lot of progressives and liberals who vote for Democrats don't mind if they stonewall. Give us a nominee that we like and then maybe we can talk.

Don't bother. MM will give lip service to "one side's just as bad as the other" but will always defend the Republican moves. "Oh sure, they did this bad thing but Dems should be held to a higher standard than that. Even if Republicans are about to tank the country and doing something deeply unpopular, Dems shouldn't fight dirty. I'd lose [my already non-existent] respect for them." Go back and read his comments. That's pretty much how they all go.

I agree. Stonewall the shit out of this guy. He's not for religious freedom unless your definition of that is the freedom for Christians to impose their beliefs on others. He might be a moderate Republican, but he's not, in any sense of the word, an actual moderate. That was Garland, the nominee that Republicans shut things down over. The one they changed the rules of engagement over. Fuck them.
So, so, so sick of tu qouque fallacy...

Metric Mouse

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1682 on: February 02, 2017, 12:03:35 PM »
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/02/trump-immigrants/515310/ 

From the article:

"The language is vague, but immigration law experts I spoke with on background said it might mean that millions of legal immigrants who have ever received public assistance—as half of native-born Americans currently do—would be targeted for deportation. "

I left a message on one of my senators' vmails to fight this vigorously.
But... but... but... Trump only wants to deport illegal immigrants. Because they're breaking the law.

Seriously I don't get this. Immigrants pay their taxes just like everyone who is native born (well, except Trump), so they have the right to the same social services as every other taxpayer.

Per his conversation with the Australian PM yesterday, individuals applying for refugee status through official channels are now illegal immigrants. Potato/potahto?
I really, truly feel for those people.  They have been abused, literally abused, by Australia for years. They deserve to be in Australia, or as a strong second choice, moved to another country. These are true refugees, and the entire world has left them to languish in a hell hole for over two years. If Australia doesn't want them, and America doesn't want them, maybe Canada will step up? Such a terrible situation.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1683 on: February 02, 2017, 12:45:42 PM »

I really, truly feel for those people.  They have been abused, literally abused, by Australia for years. They deserve to be in Australia, or as a strong second choice, moved to another country. These are true refugees, and the entire world has left them to languish in a hell hole for over two years. If Australia doesn't want them, and America doesn't want them, maybe Canada will step up? Such a terrible situation.

I would not be surprised if PM Trudeau steps up and makes a public statement saying "If the US won't honor its agreement with Australia, Canada stands ready to be the leader!"
He's basically already said as much when he promised sanctuary for anyone caught in limbo from the ban, as well as taking in a healthy number of refugees relative to the size of the Canadian population.

Trudeau's statement would be largely popular here, Canada would look like the moral leader and ultimately it wouldn't change their existing policy much.  US/Trump looses more moral high ground.

Metric Mouse

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1684 on: February 02, 2017, 12:59:35 PM »

I really, truly feel for those people.  They have been abused, literally abused, by Australia for years. They deserve to be in Australia, or as a strong second choice, moved to another country. These are true refugees, and the entire world has left them to languish in a hell hole for over two years. If Australia doesn't want them, and America doesn't want them, maybe Canada will step up? Such a terrible situation.

I would not be surprised if PM Trudeau steps up and makes a public statement saying "If the US won't honor its agreement with Australia, Canada stands ready to be the leader!"
He's basically already said as much when he promised sanctuary for anyone caught in limbo from the ban, as well as taking in a healthy number of refugees relative to the size of the Canadian population.

Trudeau's statement would be largely popular here, Canada would look like the moral leader and ultimately it wouldn't change their existing policy much.  US/Trump looses more moral high ground.
That would be truly awesome. It hurts a bit as an American to have to hope that some other country steps up to do the right thing. While Australia is to blame for the conditions these people are trapped in, and for doing its best to hide it from the world, 1200 people is peanuts to accept; and such a low risk of extremism- I mean, they weren't even tryin to make it to America, so it's hard to argue these are sleeper terrorists just waiting to strike the Red, White and Blue.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1685 on: February 02, 2017, 01:07:07 PM »
Absolutely the decision should be carefully weighed. There is a process in place for considering SCOTUS appointments, and as far as I can tell that process is not broken. Republicans did an end run around that process with the last nomination. Suggesting that the Democrats attempt, or supporting for, the same maneuver is not a positive direction for political action in this country, and makes them just as bad as Republicans. (IMO)

If the nominee is not suited or unwanted, then they should be voted down, regardless of the party nominating them.

The process broke during the last presidency. Were you not there? 10 months and no hearings and no vote seems pretty broken to me.

I for someone who votes for Democrats, and for a lot of progressives and liberals who vote for Democrats don't mind if they stonewall. Give us a nominee that we like and then maybe we can talk.

Don't bother. MM will give lip service to "one side's just as bad as the other" but will always defend the Republican moves. "Oh sure, they did this bad thing but Dems should be held to a higher standard than that. Even if Republicans are about to tank the country and doing something deeply unpopular, Dems shouldn't fight dirty. I'd lose [my already non-existent] respect for them." Go back and read his comments. That's pretty much how they all go.

I agree. Stonewall the shit out of this guy. He's not for religious freedom unless your definition of that is the freedom for Christians to impose their beliefs on others. He might be a moderate Republican, but he's not, in any sense of the word, an actual moderate. That was Garland, the nominee that Republicans shut things down over. The one they changed the rules of engagement over. Fuck them.
So, so, so sick of tu qouque fallacy...

Or just offer to vote on Gorsuch as soon as Trump releases his tax returns. 

Permitting a sitting president's SCOTUS nominee to get a hearing and a vote is not written in the Constitution but is well-established tradition.  So is releasing your tax returns when you are running for/in office as President.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1686 on: February 02, 2017, 01:26:57 PM »

I really, truly feel for those people.  They have been abused, literally abused, by Australia for years. They deserve to be in Australia, or as a strong second choice, moved to another country. These are true refugees, and the entire world has left them to languish in a hell hole for over two years. If Australia doesn't want them, and America doesn't want them, maybe Canada will step up? Such a terrible situation.

I would not be surprised if PM Trudeau steps up and makes a public statement saying "If the US won't honor its agreement with Australia, Canada stands ready to be the leader!"
He's basically already said as much when he promised sanctuary for anyone caught in limbo from the ban, as well as taking in a healthy number of refugees relative to the size of the Canadian population.

Trudeau's statement would be largely popular here, Canada would look like the moral leader and ultimately it wouldn't change their existing policy much.  US/Trump looses more moral high ground.
That would be truly awesome. It hurts a bit as an American to have to hope that some other country steps up to do the right thing. While Australia is to blame for the conditions these people are trapped in, and for doing its best to hide it from the world, 1200 people is peanuts to accept; and such a low risk of extremism- I mean, they weren't even tryin to make it to America, so it's hard to argue these are sleeper terrorists just waiting to strike the Red, White and Blue.

Trump and his cabinet don't really care. They need to save face even if that means these folks get sent back to where they came from and were killed. I mean what would his followers think if he suddenly reversed course for a few in desperate need folks? They know they are no threat but don't give a shit. Politics are more important than human decency.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1687 on: February 02, 2017, 05:34:32 PM »
Increased Russia-backed violence in Ukraine, just days after Trump's first official phone call with Putin (for which apparently all recording devices were turned off):

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-russia-fighting-avdiivka-1.3962203

Can we directly blame this on Trump? Not yet, I suppose. But at a minimum it's clear he did a terrible job at diplomacy here, and given his love of Putin it seems likely Trump at least indirectly emboldened him.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1688 on: February 02, 2017, 05:55:22 PM »
Absolutely the decision should be carefully weighed. There is a process in place for considering SCOTUS appointments, and as far as I can tell that process is not broken. Republicans did an end run around that process with the last nomination. Suggesting that the Democrats attempt, or supporting for, the same maneuver is not a positive direction for political action in this country, and makes them just as bad as Republicans. (IMO)

If the nominee is not suited or unwanted, then they should be voted down, regardless of the party nominating them.

The process broke during the last presidency. Were you not there? 10 months and no hearings and no vote seems pretty broken to me.

I for someone who votes for Democrats, and for a lot of progressives and liberals who vote for Democrats don't mind if they stonewall. Give us a nominee that we like and then maybe we can talk.

Don't bother. MM will give lip service to "one side's just as bad as the other" but will always defend the Republican moves. "Oh sure, they did this bad thing but Dems should be held to a higher standard than that. Even if Republicans are about to tank the country and doing something deeply unpopular, Dems shouldn't fight dirty. I'd lose [my already non-existent] respect for them." Go back and read his comments. That's pretty much how they all go.

I agree. Stonewall the shit out of this guy. He's not for religious freedom unless your definition of that is the freedom for Christians to impose their beliefs on others. He might be a moderate Republican, but he's not, in any sense of the word, an actual moderate. That was Garland, the nominee that Republicans shut things down over. The one they changed the rules of engagement over. Fuck them.
So, so, so sick of tu qouque fallacy...

Oh, I'm not trying to invalidate your opinions or your arguments. I'm just saying that trying to have a constructive debate with you is rather useless because you seem to be one of those people who knows what they know and no one else will change your mind.

For the most part, I've been getting a lot of constructive stuff out of debating these topics. Mostly, other posters have articulately argued things that I saw/felt but didn't know how to express. On occasion, people have brought new information to light that has been helpful in informing my opinions. I see no such evolution in your attitudes. I might be doing you a disservice, but that's what I've seen.

As for realistic impacts, shitting all over other world leaders  (except his good buddy Putin, of course), actively trying to destroy the environment in the name of "business", and trying to put forth the idea that religion is greater than the law when it comes to discrimination.

Poundwise

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1689 on: February 02, 2017, 09:04:07 PM »
I haven't been reading the Off-Topic forums for long, but I think it says something for Metric Mouse that he cares enough about these issues enough to discuss them in depth, and is clear-eyed enough to see how bad Trump is, despite his conservative/libertarian leaning.  I will admit to the same fault, SisterX, with the difference being that I give the Democrats the benefit of the doubt... and, of course, I am right. ;) 

Anyway,
If the dems do roadblock him, the nuclear option will be used, and political capital will be spent now instead of on a possible future selection (like if RBG dies).

 Had it not been for Garland, maybe there would have been a case for an easy confirmation. But this is not a time for building up  political capital... the Reps have not shown themselves to be honorable of late, anyway.  This is where Dems show that they have the toughness to hold together.
I just love how these exact same arguments were used by the other side during the last presidency. It's very frustrating that neither side will work with the other, the only reason being that they're the other side.

It IS frustrating. There is no trust any more. Rules and precedent seem to be flying out the window. There will be no Gang of 14 to save the day.

But any change to the current no-compromise, slice-the-baby-in-half culture, would have to come from the group in power.  I don't see how this can happen under Trump, unless what's left of the moderate Republican party stands up to Trump, the Tea Partiers, and Bannon's crowd. Even so-- no, I don't see healing happening under this president until it gets so bad that Trumps own supporters desert him (or, I suppose, it gets so wonderful that Trump's detractors flock to him, but that just doesn't seem very likely so far, even accounting for my liberal bias.)

In this climate, it is like the last few moves before checkmate, no point in going through the motions is there? Filibuster, nuclear option, shutdown. Though I don't know what kind of havoc Trump would wreak out of a shutdown... does not seem to bother him to have a nonfunctional government.

« Last Edit: February 02, 2017, 09:13:47 PM by Poundwise »

dividendman

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1690 on: February 03, 2017, 10:08:46 AM »
Democrats in the senate need to grow some balls and ACTUALLY filibuster everything. Just stand there and give 5 hour speeches, every democractic senator. This way even if the repubs change the rules to end debate at 51 votes you can still take up time by actually being on the floor of the senate.

Why should dems do this? 1) It worked for republicans. They showed that if your party isn't in the white house, it's not in your interest to do anything because you can't take credit for it and you'll end up winning elections because you can point to the white house doing nothing, 2) more people voted democratic than republican and the demographics will come along eventually to override the gerrymandering in the house and the voter suppression efforts in some states

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1691 on: February 03, 2017, 10:32:00 AM »
On a more positive, constructive note, for the first time in my life, people are more excited about using the SuperBowl as a platform to elevate their protesting activity than watching some boring, overhyped game.  Houston will be in the news expressing outrage at what has been seen as overreaching and divisive policy making trampling the freedoms of legal immigrants, as well as preaching free speech, inclusiveness, and acceptance. 

There are some terrible policies in the works to deport immigrants that use social services as well as deny immigrants that might require any benefits.  I can only hope that the world sees that this is not how all Americans think and do not support this wild swing toward protectionism, nationalism, and beligerence.

Just Joe

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1692 on: February 03, 2017, 11:34:50 AM »
I have yet to hear a convincing argument why we should be treating Iran like we do. There are many other countries that sponsor terrorism against the US and our allies at a much more demonstrable level. Iran is also an enemy of pretty much all of those countries and yet because we have such deep business ties with them (looking at you Saudi Arabia), we pretend like Iran is the problem. A war with them is probably among the scariest realistic impacts I could see emerging from a Trump presidency.

Because Trump's team needs a boogieman or scapegoat - just like Bush Jr did with Iraq after 9/11. Just like Hitler did with the Jews and all the European minorities.

I feel like this playbook is pretty superficial.  I guess it would be more difficult to actually FIX something rather than just breaking things?
« Last Edit: February 03, 2017, 11:44:03 AM by Tasty Pinecones »

gaja

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1693 on: February 03, 2017, 11:45:46 AM »
Well, on a positive side, detaining the former PM of Norway (and protestant pastor) who was planning to attend a prayer Meeting in the US, should remove any fear that Trump's travel ban is based in race or religion:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/03/former-norway-pm-bondevik-held-washington-dulles-airport-2014-visit-iran

accolay

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1694 on: February 03, 2017, 11:46:26 AM »
Democrats in the senate need to grow some balls and ACTUALLY filibuster everything. Just stand there and give 5 hour speeches, every democractic senator. This way even if the repubs change the rules to end debate at 51 votes you can still take up time by actually being on the floor of the senate.

Why should dems do this? 1) It worked for republicans. They showed that if your party isn't in the white house, it's not in your interest to do anything because you can't take credit for it and you'll end up winning elections because you can point to the white house doing nothing, 2) more people voted democratic than republican and the demographics will come along eventually to override the gerrymandering in the house and the voter suppression efforts in some states

Absolutely. Republicans face no repercussions from their base.

NoStacheOhio

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1695 on: February 03, 2017, 12:00:24 PM »
Well, on a positive side, detaining the former PM of Norway (and protestant pastor) who was planning to attend a prayer Meeting in the US, should remove any fear that Trump's travel ban is based in race or religion:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/03/former-norway-pm-bondevik-held-washington-dulles-airport-2014-visit-iran

The travel ban also isn't supposed to apply to people from countries outside the six specifically mentioned. Whether or not the person ever went there isn't a factor.

I realize they're just making it up as they go along, but damn.

gaja

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1696 on: February 03, 2017, 12:10:59 PM »
Well, on a positive side, detaining the former PM of Norway (and protestant pastor) who was planning to attend a prayer Meeting in the US, should remove any fear that Trump's travel ban is based in race or religion:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/03/former-norway-pm-bondevik-held-washington-dulles-airport-2014-visit-iran

The travel ban also isn't supposed to apply to people from countries outside the six specifically mentioned. Whether or not the person ever went there isn't a factor.

I realize they're just making it up as they go along, but damn.
I would also imagine they usually go easy on people with diplomat passports?

NoStacheOhio

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1697 on: February 03, 2017, 12:20:36 PM »
Well, on a positive side, detaining the former PM of Norway (and protestant pastor) who was planning to attend a prayer Meeting in the US, should remove any fear that Trump's travel ban is based in race or religion:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/03/former-norway-pm-bondevik-held-washington-dulles-airport-2014-visit-iran

The travel ban also isn't supposed to apply to people from countries outside the six specifically mentioned. Whether or not the person ever went there isn't a factor.

I realize they're just making it up as they go along, but damn.
I would also imagine they usually go easy on people with diplomat passports?

That's how it's supposed to work. Detaining someone on a diplomatic passport without a really good reason may actually be some kind of treaty violation. I'm not sure.

Gin1984

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1698 on: February 03, 2017, 12:27:25 PM »
Well, on a positive side, detaining the former PM of Norway (and protestant pastor) who was planning to attend a prayer Meeting in the US, should remove any fear that Trump's travel ban is based in race or religion:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/03/former-norway-pm-bondevik-held-washington-dulles-airport-2014-visit-iran

The travel ban also isn't supposed to apply to people from countries outside the six specifically mentioned. Whether or not the person ever went there isn't a factor.

I realize they're just making it up as they go along, but damn.
I would also imagine they usually go easy on people with diplomat passports?

That's how it's supposed to work. Detaining someone on a diplomatic passport without a really good reason may actually be some kind of treaty violation. I'm not sure.
Depends if that person also had diplomatic immunity or not.

gaja

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1699 on: February 03, 2017, 12:33:41 PM »
Well, on a positive side, detaining the former PM of Norway (and protestant pastor) who was planning to attend a prayer Meeting in the US, should remove any fear that Trump's travel ban is based in race or religion:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/03/former-norway-pm-bondevik-held-washington-dulles-airport-2014-visit-iran

The travel ban also isn't supposed to apply to people from countries outside the six specifically mentioned. Whether or not the person ever went there isn't a factor.

I realize they're just making it up as they go along, but damn.
I would also imagine they usually go easy on people with diplomat passports?

That's how it's supposed to work. Detaining someone on a diplomatic passport without a really good reason may actually be some kind of treaty violation. I'm not sure.
Depends if that person also had diplomatic immunity or not.
I doubt he has immunity. He runs a peace center, and does some work on peace negotiations and treaties. But honestly, he generally thinks he is more important than he is, so no one is getting very upset by this ordeal. But it might be an idea to sort this out before they mess with someone who really is important.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!