Author Topic: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?  (Read 383295 times)

nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1450 on: January 26, 2017, 06:36:13 PM »
His core followers need the wall.  They will bend over backwards rationalizing how somehow Mexico is paying for the wall, but if he outright renegs on that promise he could lose his fanatical base.
You are probably right.

I think the wall is dumb, but it's hardly his most troubling goal.
I think the wall is a $20B boondoggle that will accomplish nothing to slow drugs OR immigrants, cause a fortune to police and maintain and symbolically is the polar opposite of our nation's values.

Did none of these people play computer games?  The bigger the wall the more it costs and the harder it is to protect.  I predict that within months people are going to start blowing holes in random sections while drones fly overhead and tunnels are dug benieth.  This will all happen before it ever gets completed.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1451 on: January 26, 2017, 06:51:24 PM »
I am also concerned because it seems to me that civil servants are the only ones now who stand between Trump and illegal behavior. They are the ones who can say "no" or blow the whistle if he steps over the line.
The worst part of this is America's mixed history on governmental whistle blowers... not great in a normal administration, but possibly even worse under a Trump administration.

calimom

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1452 on: January 26, 2017, 07:09:37 PM »
..and you can be sure the no-bid contract to build the wall will go to someone in Betsy Devos's  family or some "subsidiary" of the Koch Brothers.

sol

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1453 on: January 26, 2017, 07:41:07 PM »
..and you can be sure the no-bid contract to build the wall will go to someone in Betsy Devos's  family or some "subsidiary" of the Koch Brothers.

That's optimistic.  I figured it would go directly to Trump Enterprises.

bacchi

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1454 on: January 26, 2017, 08:04:27 PM »
Trump is walking back the 20% tariff idea.

It's like no one in the White House has studied history (Bueller? Bueller?).

dragoncar

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1455 on: January 26, 2017, 08:34:25 PM »
Trump is walking back the 20% tariff idea.

It's like no one in the White House has studied history (Bueller? Bueller?).

The tariff just got 10% higher

dividendman

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1456 on: January 26, 2017, 08:39:07 PM »
Trump is walking back the 20% tariff idea.

It's like no one in the White House has studied history (Bueller? Bueller?).

The tariff just got 10% higher

That's a little ambiguous dragoncar... do you mean it's going to be a 22% tariff or a 30% tariff?

dragoncar

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1457 on: January 26, 2017, 08:43:40 PM »
Trump is walking back the 20% tariff idea.

It's like no one in the White House has studied history (Bueller? Bueller?).

The tariff just got 10% higher


That's a little ambiguous dragoncar... do you mean it's going to be a 22% tariff or a 30% tariff?

Those are just alternative interpretations, both are equally valid

MasterStache

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1458 on: January 27, 2017, 05:30:16 AM »
Trump is walking back the 20% tariff idea.

It's like no one in the White House has studied history (Bueller? Bueller?).

The tariff just got 10% higher

Eh, why stop at 20 or 30%? Let's do 400%!! That will really hurt middle class Americans and US corporations Mexico

jim555

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1459 on: January 27, 2017, 08:06:48 AM »
I don't get the wall thing.  Couldn't someone just book a flight and overstay the visa?  I see many Indians, Pakistanis, Chinese, etc. and they are not coming in from south of the Rio Grande.

Tariffs will raise the prices in Walmart and hurt the poor, especially in the south.  Trumpees will pay for the wall, not Mexico.

nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1460 on: January 27, 2017, 08:47:50 AM »
I don't get the wall thing.  Couldn't someone just book a flight and overstay the visa?  I see many Indians, Pakistanis, Chinese, etc. and they are not coming in from south of the Rio Grande.


I don't get it either, except that it's symbolic to some. Walls aren't very effective at stopping immigration, in part for the reasons you mentioned, but also because a 2,000 mile border is nearly impossible to patrol, especially when there is rough terrain along much of it and lots of towns on both sides. A small group of people can scale a 40' wall in under a minute. IEDs could blow holes in the wall on a daily basis.

Its even less effective at stopping the flow of drugs. All you need to do is get a package of drugs to the other side where someone will pick them up.  You can buy remote-controlled drones which can do this (with minor modification) at Best Buy. Bigger ultra-lights can drop 300lbs (or even a person) several miles past the wall. Any kid in shop class can design an air cannon which can clear a wall. The cartels have gotten very good at building tunnels; I was listening to a story on NPR about how a $1M, mile-long tunnel could be built in a few months and paid for with a single run of drugs.

Heck, if were an engineering professor I might give my students a term project to come up with the best low-cost solution for delivering ~20kg packages over a 50' barrier with only supplies available from Home Depot.

To paraphrase someone else: It's medieval technology trying to stop a 21st century problem.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1461 on: January 27, 2017, 09:07:28 AM »
It'll be interesting to see how the US government plans to build the wall given that so much of the land they'll be building on belongs to private citizens.  Will they just appropriate the land outright, will they build the wall behind this land, or what?

wenchsenior

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1462 on: January 27, 2017, 09:09:45 AM »
I don't get the wall thing.  Couldn't someone just book a flight and overstay the visa?  I see many Indians, Pakistanis, Chinese, etc. and they are not coming in from south of the Rio Grande.


I don't get it either, except that it's symbolic to some. Walls aren't very effective at stopping immigration, in part for the reasons you mentioned, but also because a 2,000 mile border is nearly impossible to patrol, especially when there is rough terrain along much of it and lots of towns on both sides. A small group of people can scale a 40' wall in under a minute. IEDs could blow holes in the wall on a daily basis.

Its even less effective at stopping the flow of drugs. All you need to do is get a package of drugs to the other side where someone will pick them up.  You can buy remote-controlled drones which can do this (with minor modification) at Best Buy. Bigger ultra-lights can drop 300lbs (or even a person) several miles past the wall. Any kid in shop class can design an air cannon which can clear a wall. The cartels have gotten very good at building tunnels; I was listening to a story on NPR about how a $1M, mile-long tunnel could be built in a few months and paid for with a single run of drugs.

Heck, if were an engineering professor I might give my students a term project to come up with the best low-cost solution for delivering ~20kg packages over a 50' barrier with only supplies available from Home Depot.

To paraphrase someone else: It's medieval technology trying to stop a 21st century problem.

I was listening to a talk show about this topic yesterday, and they were discussing the impracticality and expense of a wall and wondering why The Wall concept was so attractive to Trump supporters when it was so obviously not an efficient way to reduce border crossings. And this Trump supporter called in and explained that he personally REALLY wanted a HUGE AWESOME wall, not so much because it was practical, but because he wanted America to send a message that we could build something so impressive and spectacular and symbolically important. He actually said he was sure it would become a massive tourist attraction, and generate of ton of money, just like the Great Wall of China.

So, just one Trump supporter's view on The Most Beautiful Wall.

(Incidentally, my husband used to be a border patrol field agent. He spent plenty of time patrolling, placing and monitoring sensors, and laying up fully armed in the desert to bust illegal drug deliveries and migrants. He thinks the concept of a wall is the stupidest and most impractical thing he's ever heard in his life and anyone who supports it is a complete moron.  So there you have one opposition view, for balance LOL).

nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1463 on: January 27, 2017, 09:24:58 AM »
It'll be interesting to see how the US government plans to build the wall given that so much of the land they'll be building on belongs to private citizens.  Will they just appropriate the land outright, will they build the wall behind this land, or what?

WaPo did a good synposis of the challenges faced with building a wall (link here).
Regarding land - that's a huge problem.  60% of the border in Texas is privately owned and there will doubtless be lawsuits and 'eminent domain' challenges up the wazoo.
Logistically there's the problem that part or the border is along the Rio Grande, and you can't build large concrete structures easily next to a river that likes to miander - so either you build it away from the riverbanks or you spend a god-awful amount of time/money 'armoring' the shoreline, which only works for short (~decade) timescales.  If you build further back from the river you are effectively cutting off many towns, ranches and roads that currently are right next to the river.
Currently there already some people and property who live on the mexican side of border fences.

In the more remote places (of which there are hundreds of miles) we'll need to build paved roads in order to get heavy construction equipment in.  It's like building a highway to nowhere so that you can build a wall only to (presumably) get rid of the highway a year or two later.

nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1464 on: January 27, 2017, 09:40:28 AM »
Quote
I was listening to a talk show about this topic yesterday, and they were discussing the impracticality and expense of a wall and wondering why The Wall concept was so attractive to Trump supporters when it was so obviously not an efficient way to reduce border crossings. And this Trump supporter called in and explained that he personally REALLY wanted a HUGE AWESOME wall, not so much because it was practical, but because he wanted America to send a message that we could build something so impressive and spectacular and symbolically important. He actually said he was sure it would become a massive tourist attraction, and generate of ton of money, just like the Great Wall of China.

That's not very comforting.  Most historians regard the Great Wall of China to be an economic failure. It cost too much to build (both in treasure and lives), took an enormous amount of money and soldiers to maintain and defend, and ultimately illicit trade occcurred between the border guards and those 'barbarians' on the other side.

Everything I've seen is for construction of a simple, ~40' concrete slab wall.  If Trump wants it to be a tourist attraction (like something you could walk/run on top of) the cost will go up exponentially.  Tourism also effectively nullifies its purpose; how do you keep a barrier secure when lots of people keep traveling to it and want to touch it and take selfies on/in front of it?  It would be a security nightmare.

golden1

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1465 on: January 27, 2017, 09:43:48 AM »
The realistic impact for today is that we are actually sitting here in 2017 having a conversation about building a border wall on Mexico.  Like, think about an alternative universe where we could be actually think about doing useful shit. 

wenchsenior

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1466 on: January 27, 2017, 09:50:02 AM »
Quote
I was listening to a talk show about this topic yesterday, and they were discussing the impracticality and expense of a wall and wondering why The Wall concept was so attractive to Trump supporters when it was so obviously not an efficient way to reduce border crossings. And this Trump supporter called in and explained that he personally REALLY wanted a HUGE AWESOME wall, not so much because it was practical, but because he wanted America to send a message that we could build something so impressive and spectacular and symbolically important. He actually said he was sure it would become a massive tourist attraction, and generate of ton of money, just like the Great Wall of China.

That's not very comforting. Most historians regard the Great Wall of China to be an economic failure. It cost too much to build (both in treasure and lives), took an enormous amount of money and soldiers to maintain and defend, and ultimately illicit trade occcurred between the border guards and those 'barbarians' on the other side.

Everything I've seen is for construction of a simple, ~40' concrete slab wall.  If Trump wants it to be a tourist attraction (like something you could walk/run on top of) the cost will go up exponentially.  Tourism also effectively nullifies its purpose; how do you keep a barrier secure when lots of people keep traveling to it and want to touch it and take selfies on/in front of it?  It would be a security nightmare.

That was kind of my point. If this is the 'reasoning' driving the desire for a wall, then my opinion is the supporters are idiots.  In reality, who knows how many supporters think this way...

JLee

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1467 on: January 27, 2017, 09:51:17 AM »
Quote
I was listening to a talk show about this topic yesterday, and they were discussing the impracticality and expense of a wall and wondering why The Wall concept was so attractive to Trump supporters when it was so obviously not an efficient way to reduce border crossings. And this Trump supporter called in and explained that he personally REALLY wanted a HUGE AWESOME wall, not so much because it was practical, but because he wanted America to send a message that we could build something so impressive and spectacular and symbolically important. He actually said he was sure it would become a massive tourist attraction, and generate of ton of money, just like the Great Wall of China.

That's not very comforting. Most historians regard the Great Wall of China to be an economic failure. It cost too much to build (both in treasure and lives), took an enormous amount of money and soldiers to maintain and defend, and ultimately illicit trade occcurred between the border guards and those 'barbarians' on the other side.

Everything I've seen is for construction of a simple, ~40' concrete slab wall.  If Trump wants it to be a tourist attraction (like something you could walk/run on top of) the cost will go up exponentially.  Tourism also effectively nullifies its purpose; how do you keep a barrier secure when lots of people keep traveling to it and want to touch it and take selfies on/in front of it?  It would be a security nightmare.

That was kind of my point. If this is the 'reasoning' driving the desire for a wall, then my opinion is the supporters are idiots. In reality, who knows how many supporters think this way...

That's effectively the conclusion I arrived at as well.

nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1468 on: January 27, 2017, 10:00:18 AM »
Which global leader will be the first to say:
"Mr Trump - tear down this wall"?

SisterX

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1469 on: January 27, 2017, 10:01:50 AM »
Quote
I was listening to a talk show about this topic yesterday, and they were discussing the impracticality and expense of a wall and wondering why The Wall concept was so attractive to Trump supporters when it was so obviously not an efficient way to reduce border crossings. And this Trump supporter called in and explained that he personally REALLY wanted a HUGE AWESOME wall, not so much because it was practical, but because he wanted America to send a message that we could build something so impressive and spectacular and symbolically important. He actually said he was sure it would become a massive tourist attraction, and generate of ton of money, just like the Great Wall of China.

That's not very comforting. Most historians regard the Great Wall of China to be an economic failure. It cost too much to build (both in treasure and lives), took an enormous amount of money and soldiers to maintain and defend, and ultimately illicit trade occcurred between the border guards and those 'barbarians' on the other side.

Everything I've seen is for construction of a simple, ~40' concrete slab wall.  If Trump wants it to be a tourist attraction (like something you could walk/run on top of) the cost will go up exponentially.  Tourism also effectively nullifies its purpose; how do you keep a barrier secure when lots of people keep traveling to it and want to touch it and take selfies on/in front of it?  It would be a security nightmare.

That was kind of my point. If this is the 'reasoning' driving the desire for a wall, then my opinion is the supporters are idiots. In reality, who knows how many supporters think this way...

That's effectively the conclusion I arrived at as well.

Oh, come on, guys! Walls work! Duh.

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nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1471 on: January 27, 2017, 10:05:08 AM »
Which global leader will be the first to say:
"Mr Trump - tear down this wall"?

If we include former leaders, it might be Gorbachev:

http://www.theweek.co.uk/65094/wwiii-threat-of-nuclear-war-seems-real-again-warns-gorbachev

a bit naive of me, but I honestly didn't realize that Mikhail Gorbachev was still alive. 

radram

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1472 on: January 27, 2017, 10:17:11 AM »
Which global leader will be the first to say:
"Mr Trump - tear down this wall"?

If we include former leaders, it might be Gorbachev:

http://www.theweek.co.uk/65094/wwiii-threat-of-nuclear-war-seems-real-again-warns-gorbachev



a bit naive of me, but I honestly didn't realize that Mikhail Gorbachev was still alive.

+1 Me too.

MasterStache

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1473 on: January 27, 2017, 10:31:35 AM »
Which global leader will be the first to say:
"Mr Trump - tear down this wall"?

If we include former leaders, it might be Gorbachev:

http://www.theweek.co.uk/65094/wwiii-threat-of-nuclear-war-seems-real-again-warns-gorbachev



a bit naive of me, but I honestly didn't realize that Mikhail Gorbachev was still alive.

+1 Me too.

Add me to that list. Geesh!

radram

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1474 on: January 27, 2017, 11:44:20 AM »
Trump in press Conference with British PM May today.

I see this as the largest reason for optimism:  EDIT to clarify

Trump stated he will defer the running of Homeland Security Secretary of Defence to Gen. Kelly Mattis, after saying he and Kelly Mattis disagree on torture techniques.  There is great hope for me here. Kelly was largely confirmed 88-11 Confirmation for Mattis was 99-1. Both my Wisconsin Senators, Baldwin and Johnson voted yes. There can not be 2 senators more diametrically opposed. If Trump is true to his word on this issue, I like what I saw today.

While I am still reserved with many other statements from Trump, I am encouraged regarding Homeland Security.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2017, 01:46:26 PM by radram »

sol

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1475 on: January 27, 2017, 12:27:41 PM »
Similarly, he had said he would defer to Mattis on using torture, and Mattis opposes it.

In that context, maybe this is just buying himself political cover?  This way he can still say he wants to torture people, and get lots of republicans excited about that evil, without actually be charged for war crimes.

nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1476 on: January 27, 2017, 01:04:13 PM »
Similarly, he had said he would defer to Mattis on using torture, and Mattis opposes it.

In that context, maybe this is just buying himself political cover?  This way he can still say he wants to torture people, and get lots of republicans excited about that evil, without actually be charged for war crimes.

so... "I'd waterboard the hell outta those people, but Mattis won't let me?"
Sounds so schoolyard-esque.

nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1477 on: January 27, 2017, 01:07:40 PM »
Trump in press Conference with British PM May today.

I see this as the largest reason for optimism.

Why?  This seems like the biggest example of a shifting baseline.  It shouldn't even be noteworthy that the new US President met with the PM of our most reliable ally for the past 100 years.  But it is, such has become life around Washington...


radram

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1478 on: January 27, 2017, 01:20:25 PM »
Trump in press Conference with British PM May today.

I see this as the largest reason for optimism.

Why?  This seems like the biggest example of a shifting baseline.  It shouldn't even be noteworthy that the new US President met with the PM of our most reliable ally for the past 100 years.  But it is, such has become life around Washington...

Should have read

I see this as the largest reason for optimism:


The semi colon should have shown the reason was coming(Kelly "in charge"), not the simple fact that they met. Edited original post

nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1479 on: January 27, 2017, 01:25:16 PM »
Trump in press Conference with British PM May today.

I see this as the largest reason for optimism.

Why?  This seems like the biggest example of a shifting baseline.  It shouldn't even be noteworthy that the new US President met with the PM of our most reliable ally for the past 100 years.  But it is, such has become life around Washington...

Should have read

I see this as the largest reason for optimism:


The semi colon should have shown the reason was coming(Kelly "in charge"), not the simple fact that they met. Edited original post
ah - thanks for the clarification.
I was getting my dander up thinking that "optimism" was suddenly in order anytime DJT didn't start an international incident.

radram

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1480 on: January 27, 2017, 01:42:36 PM »
Similarly, he had said he would defer to Mattis on using torture, and Mattis opposes it.

In that context, maybe this is just buying himself political cover?  This way he can still say he wants to torture people, and get lots of republicans excited about that evil, without actually be charged for war crimes.

You are correct. That part was Mattis, not Kelly. Edited original, again.

FIRE me

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1481 on: January 27, 2017, 04:51:58 PM »
It'll be interesting to see how the US government plans to build the wall given that so much of the land they'll be building on belongs to private citizens.  Will they just appropriate the land outright, will they build the wall behind this land, or what?

They will use eminent domain. the land owners would be "fairly compensated" (with the government defining fair), but in the end they would not get to say no.

Kris

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1482 on: January 27, 2017, 04:54:36 PM »
Another impact.

sol

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1483 on: January 27, 2017, 04:57:02 PM »
They will use eminent domain.

I bet not.

We just don't DO eminent domain anymore.  To modern sensibilities, that's considered government overreach and theft of personal property, and it's the most unAmerican thing imaginable.  You might as well eat a bald eagle.

Kris

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1484 on: January 27, 2017, 05:01:23 PM »
They will use eminent domain.

I bet not.

We just don't DO eminent domain anymore.  To modern sensibilities, that's considered government overreach and theft of personal property, and it's the most unAmerican thing imaginable.  You might as well eat a bald eagle.

"We" don't, but Trump does.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2015/08/19/donald-trumps-abuse-of-eminent-domain/?utm_term=.bf0bc66e4960

So I bet he'll propose it. And won't understand why it could be in the least problematic.

Metric Mouse

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1485 on: January 27, 2017, 05:34:13 PM »
Similarly, he had said he would defer to Mattis on using torture, and Mattis opposes it.

In that context, maybe this is just buying himself political cover?  This way he can still say he wants to torture people, and get lots of republicans excited about that evil, without actually be charged for war crimes.

I don't know that Trump really cares about political cover. I mean, he has literally said "I happen to feel that it (torture)does work, I've been open about that for a long period of time, but I am going with our leaders and we are going to win with or without (torture)." He honestly believes, despite the experts telling him otherwise, that torture works.

But, he also said "Mattis said that he doesn't intend to use it. I'm with him all the way." He's not going to force anyone to torture other people (not that he could do that, I guess), and presumably he is not going to be torturing people himself; so his views are just that: his views. So no war crimes, as no one is going to be torturing anyone. And even when they did torture prisoners - I don't recall anyone in an administration being charged with anything.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2017, 07:28:45 PM by Metric Mouse »

Abe

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1486 on: January 27, 2017, 07:28:01 PM »
Impact #527 - Poor bigots (and some poor non-bigots, to be fair) will realize they've been had by the billionaires AGAIN, and blame everyone and everything except their own poor choices and bad luck AGAIN, and then probably re-elect the same billionaire.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2017, 07:29:54 PM by Abe »

A mom

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1487 on: January 27, 2017, 09:08:05 PM »
They will use eminent domain.

I bet not.

We just don't DO eminent domain anymore.  To modern sensibilities, that's considered government overreach and theft of personal property, and it's the most unAmerican thing imaginable.  You might as well eat a bald eagle.

Are you kidding me? Have you followed anything about the Dakota Access pipeline?

sol

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1488 on: January 27, 2017, 09:33:19 PM »
Are you kidding me? Have you followed anything about the Dakota Access pipeline?

Yes, in great detail, and I stand by my original assertion.

There was a time in America when the federal government routinely relocated entire towns, by force, for the good of the nation.  These days, federal infrastructure programs are routinely stymied by nosy neighborhood watch groups who think every local landmark belongs on the national historic register.

And don't even get me started on the Indians.  Guess what we took from them?

Metric Mouse

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1489 on: January 27, 2017, 09:45:52 PM »
Are you kidding me? Have you followed anything about the Dakota Access pipeline?

Yes, in great detail, and I stand by my original assertion.

There was a time in America when the federal government routinely relocated entire towns, by force, for the good of the nation.  These days, federal infrastructure programs are routinely stymied by nosy neighborhood watch groups who think every local landmark belongs on the national historic register.

And don't even get me started on the Indians.  Guess what we took from them?

I don't think eminent domain was used on any Native American lands regarding the DAPL. In fact, it doesn't even run through any Native American lands...  Eminent domain was used in Iowa though, for its construction.

sol

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1490 on: January 27, 2017, 09:55:45 PM »
I don't think eminent domain was used on any Native American lands regarding the DAPL.

I didn't mean that we stole land from the Indians to build a pipeline.

cerat0n1a

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1491 on: January 28, 2017, 05:50:45 AM »
It shouldn't even be noteworthy that the new US President met with the PM of our most reliable ally for the past 100 years. 

I'm hoping that she was persuading him to build a big deep moat round the country, like we have for most of Britain. So much classier than a wall.

nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1492 on: January 28, 2017, 07:53:07 AM »
They will use eminent domain.

I bet not.

We just don't DO eminent domain anymore.  To modern sensibilities, that's considered government overreach and theft of personal property, and it's the most unAmerican thing imaginable.  You might as well eat a bald eagle.

Are you kidding me? Have you followed anything about the Dakota Access pipeline?

Eminent domain has been used less and less by the federal government, in part because lawsuits to protect homeownership have been so successful at blocking and/or delaying projects. One of the burdens the federal government will have is that there could be thousands of land owners fighting loss of their land, and these all have to be litigated separately.

The courts require fair compensation to the land owners (which itself is a point of intense arguing) as well as proof that an alternative route is not feasible.  Since large sections of the boarder wall/fence is already not built on the actual border plaintiffs could argue that the fence should be moved off their property.

FOr a modern example, check out the eminent domain problems that have occurred in California trying to build the high-speed rail from SF to LA.  Last I looked >50% of the total cost was tied up with eminent domain.

packlawyer04

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1493 on: January 28, 2017, 08:22:07 AM »
Implications so far look really good. Get some of these regulations rolled back and maybe we can see GDP growth above 3%. something we have not seen for 8 years.  Jobs are returning and companies are investing in the United States again. 

nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1494 on: January 28, 2017, 08:37:28 AM »
Implications so far look really good. Get some of these regulations rolled back and maybe we can see GDP growth above 3%. something we have not seen for 8 years.  Jobs are returning and companies are investing in the United States again.
Jobs have been returning for eight years and our unemployment is near all-time lows, and essentially none of that has been due to the current, 7 day old administration. Giving up many of these regulations will give us negligable short-term gains but long-term problems. Of course DJT could torpedo everything with a few ego-driven trade wars.  Nice trolling

Unique User

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1495 on: January 28, 2017, 10:12:50 AM »
Implications so far look really good. Get some of these regulations rolled back and maybe we can see GDP growth above 3%. something we have not seen for 8 years.  Jobs are returning and companies are investing in the United States again.

Really?  Lots of jobs returning and companies investing in the last 7 days that weren't already planning to do so?  Please back this up with actual facts, or should I say alternative facts?

scottish

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1496 on: January 28, 2017, 10:42:34 AM »
Looks like Muslims with green cards and H1-B visas who have been out of the country are being blocked from returning.   Hard to know how many will be stopped though.   Linky  http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/five-iraqis-one-yemeni-barred-from-flight-after-trump-ban/article33818104/


nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1497 on: January 28, 2017, 10:46:37 AM »
Looks like Muslims with green cards and H1-B visas who have been out of the country are being blocked from returning.   Hard to know how many will be stopped though.   Linky  http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/five-iraqis-one-yemeni-barred-from-flight-after-trump-ban/article33818104/

Seems like we're continuing the approach of using a sledgehammer and buzzsaw for problem solving, carnage-be-damned.

sol

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1498 on: January 28, 2017, 10:51:56 AM »
Looks like Muslims with green cards and H1-B visas who have been out of the country are being blocked from returning.   Hard to know how many will be stopped though.   Linky  http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/five-iraqis-one-yemeni-barred-from-flight-after-trump-ban/article33818104/

Any bets on how long it takes the Supreme Court to declare this particular form of religious discrimination to be unconstitutional? 

I think it will take at at least two or three years, to find a party with standing and then work its way up through the court system to the Supremes.  The only possible way to avoid this outcome, I think, is if Trump's justice department stops appealing all of the consistent lower court decisions that will tell him it's unconstitutional every day, from day one onwards.

NoStacheOhio

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1499 on: January 28, 2017, 11:00:18 AM »
Looks like Muslims with green cards and H1-B visas who have been out of the country are being blocked from returning.   Hard to know how many will be stopped though.   Linky  http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/five-iraqis-one-yemeni-barred-from-flight-after-trump-ban/article33818104/

Preventing permanent residents from returning to their home. This is super shitty. Where exactly are they supposed to go when they live here? Presumably they also have jobs and responsibilities in the United States, AKA the place where they permanently, legally live.