Author Topic: What's really going on out in the country? Why  (Read 97672 times)

Kathryn K.

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #250 on: November 11, 2016, 05:55:59 PM »
I just don't get why people would vote republican when they are the ones responsible for NAFTA. All of a sudden they are going to abolish it?

Because a lot of Trump's views aren't typically Republican or conservative.  He's a populist that chose to run through the Republican party system (like Bernie being a Democratic Socialist but running through the Democratic party).

He'll never abolish trade agreements. Even if you could abolish them do you want people back in textile factories? Americans don't want those jobs. You think the auto sector is going to be revived?

Who says Americans don't want to work in textile factories?  If it pays a living wage, I'm sure a lot of people would.  It would be beat working in fast food or as a home health aide for 8 bucks an hour. Not all of the population has the brains or the aptitude to be software engineers.

atrex

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #251 on: November 11, 2016, 07:54:46 PM »
No one is saying that.  Honestly, if someone called whites "rapists and murders" I would laugh it off because it isn't true.

That, sir, is your white privilege laughing.  You don't laugh at that shit if you've been beaten up, bullied, screamed at or denied opportunities daily because of your skin color.

mtnrider

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #252 on: November 11, 2016, 10:04:19 PM »
That, sir, is your white privilege laughing.  You don't laugh at that shit if you've been beaten up, bullied, screamed at or denied opportunities daily because of your skin color.

I have to believe that PTR just hasn't had the real world experience.  I was there once myself.

It's really hard to realize if you're a straight white man, but male white privilege is significant.

oldtoyota

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #253 on: November 12, 2016, 02:14:05 PM »
That, sir, is your white privilege laughing.  You don't laugh at that shit if you've been beaten up, bullied, screamed at or denied opportunities daily because of your skin color.

I have to believe that PTR just hasn't had the real world experience.  I was there once myself.

It's really hard to realize if you're a straight white man, but male white privilege is significant.

This. People think they know. They don't.


oldtoyota

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #254 on: November 12, 2016, 02:18:52 PM »
I stumbled across this blog post last night and I'll be honest- I felt like it helped me understand some of my friends and family who were Trump supporters better than any narrative about economically depressed rural whites. I've been mystified by those who seemingly have all the trappings of a middle class/upper middle lifestyle - college educations, manicured suburban homes or rural estates, well-paid jobs, late model SUVs, and spotless church attendance - and still fell hook, line and sinker for a narrative about trashing trade deals and exporting poor immigrants. I think I'm starting to understand that it wasn't his policy that they connected with, but his blatant disregard for stifling political correctness. (or should I say zis blatant disregard for political correctness?)

I'm curious to know what the rest of you think.
I didn't vote for Trump (went for Johnson because he's way more conservative than Trump in the areas that matter to me ;), but if I had this would have been one of the main reasons why.  People like me (straight, white, southern men) are sick and tired of the f***ing PC police telling us what we can and cannot say.  Freedom of speech is supposed to cover everyone, but if someone who looks like me says something questionable we're automatically labeled a racist/sexist/homophobe.  F*** that.  Trump says what he thinks, and I like it.

Bless your heart.

Lagom

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #255 on: November 12, 2016, 02:25:22 PM »
Yes, the anti-PC backlash in this country is strong. Of course those folks don't realize how asinine it is to think they should be allowed to spew whatever bigoted views they have without anyone calling them on it. I do think many of the "liberal elite" sometimes take the judgement too far for some things (say, to pick an example I witnessed once, flipping out at a man calling a woman he didn't know "sweetie"), but if you say racist things, which is your right, I'm going to call you a racist, which is mine. 

human

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #256 on: November 12, 2016, 03:50:58 PM »
I just don't get why people would vote republican when they are the ones responsible for NAFTA. All of a sudden they are going to abolish it?

Because a lot of Trump's views aren't typically Republican or conservative.  He's a populist that chose to run through the Republican party system (like Bernie being a Democratic Socialist but running through the Democratic party).

He'll never abolish trade agreements. Even if you could abolish them do you want people back in textile factories? Americans don't want those jobs. You think the auto sector is going to be revived?

Who says Americans don't want to work in textile factories?  If it pays a living wage, I'm sure a lot of people would.  It would be beat working in fast food or as a home health aide for 8 bucks an hour. Not all of the population has the brains or the aptitude to be software engineers.

So what's the plan slap tarrifs on everything and make imports too expensive to buy and make your exports to expensive to sell when other nations inevitably retaliate and then magically go back to a manufacturing economy?

It's like trying to save the Titanic after it hit the iceberg. Not gonna happen.

bacchi

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #257 on: November 12, 2016, 04:02:41 PM »
So what's the plan slap tarrifs on everything and make imports too expensive to buy and make your exports to expensive to sell when other nations inevitably retaliate and then magically go back to a manufacturing economy?

It's like trying to save the Titanic after it hit the iceberg. Not gonna happen.

We're gonna make them buy our goods. It'll be great.

mtnrider

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #258 on: November 12, 2016, 06:52:48 PM »
I stumbled across this blog post last night and I'll be honest- I felt like it helped me understand some of my friends and family who were Trump supporters better than any narrative about economically depressed rural whites. I've been mystified by those who seemingly have all the trappings of a middle class/upper middle lifestyle - college educations, manicured suburban homes or rural estates, well-paid jobs, late model SUVs, and spotless church attendance - and still fell hook, line and sinker for a narrative about trashing trade deals and exporting poor immigrants. I think I'm starting to understand that it wasn't his policy that they connected with, but his blatant disregard for stifling political correctness. (or should I say zis blatant disregard for political correctness?)

I'm curious to know what the rest of you think.

First let me say that I partially agree with the blog entry that some of the political correctness is too much change, too soon.  I don't feel racist or bigoted, but I might make an assumption that offends someone.  The world is changing, people are more free.  We all need time to adjust.  Some of us are steeped in our vernacular and it's probably only our kids that will change.  Maybe these guys voted for Trump because he's the guy they'd like to have a beer with.

I just don't buy that it's PC-backlash that got Trump elected.  I think most voted for him because he's republican and they agree with the platform.  I do buy that his political incorrectness didn't turn them away.


MrMoogle

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #259 on: November 12, 2016, 09:57:04 PM »
Found the transcript: http://time.com/3923128/donald-trump-announcement-speech/

Nothing to indicate that he's only talking about illegal immigrants. Maybe he "clarified" that later, but in the speech given, that doesn't appear to be the case.
You know how liberals always claim Republicans use code words?  Like "Welfare Queen" = black.
I'm pretty sure "Mexican" is used for illegal/undocumented, even though I think most aren't Mexican, which is why I use Latino.  I'm not really sure, since I haven't listened to many of his speeches, but it would make sense.

Can we come up with a moderate term for them?  Illegal is far right, and undocumented is far left, neither seem fitting to me.  Maybe fence hopper, even though they probably didn't hop a fence.  It makes me think of when I was a kid, running around the neighborhood.  I'm sure I annoyed a few people, but I didn't do much if any real damage, and I probably put a few smiles on people's faces too.  Which seems fitting. 

cwide

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #260 on: November 12, 2016, 11:51:31 PM »
Quote
At least we know from now on that the National polls are just a load of shit.


So true. The only funny thing about last night was that at 11:30pm Nate Silver was still updating his model and saying things like, "So and so has X% percent chance to win the election based on our model". The same model(s) that have been consistently wrong on almost every question for the last 18 months!

The 2008 sparkle of nearly deterministic "big data" polling analytics has definitely worn off. I'll bet ESPN makes FiveThirtyEight stick to sports for the next few years.

538 was the only model that was even close. Yes, still wrong, but they at least were within a polling error. All of the 99% chance models should lose all viewership.

atrex

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #261 on: November 13, 2016, 12:14:21 AM »
538 was the only model that was even close. Yes, still wrong, but they at least were within a polling error. All of the 99% chance models should lose all viewership.

Wrong.  The LA Times/USC poll correctly predicted a Trump win, but overstated by how much.  See:

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-trump-polls-20161109-story.html

The question that should be asked is not whether the poll was right, but why it was right?  Even a broken clock is right twice a day.  With numerous polls and pollsters, some will be right with luck.  Was 538 wrong because it got unlucky, or because it had a bad model?  Was the LAT/USC poll right because it had a good model, or because it got lucky.  In some cases both will be factors.

538 was pretty wrong, but most polls were in similar territory.  It looks like most got the turnout numbers wrong, which are hand-corrected or calibrated by pollsters.  They didn't anticipate that Trump would energize so many to turn out for him, and that made a few pct points difference, which was all that was needed to swing the midwest.

Polls are rarely spot on and the polling is definitely better and more informative than it was 20, 30 years ago.  But when people expect the polls to be so accurate that they can predict accurately the electoral vote outcome of a close race, there will be a lot of disappointment - the electoral vote magnifies differences in popular vote, and thus will swing wildly with errors in swing state predictions.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2016, 12:15:54 AM by atrex »

Kathryn K.

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #262 on: November 13, 2016, 06:46:13 AM »
So what's the plan slap tarrifs on everything and make imports too expensive to buy and make your exports to expensive to sell when other nations inevitably retaliate and then magically go back to a manufacturing economy?

It's like trying to save the Titanic after it hit the iceberg. Not gonna happen.

We're gonna make them buy our goods. It'll be great.

What about buying our own goods?  Everyone seems to be about "buy local" for food now - why not goods as well?

Syonyk

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #263 on: November 13, 2016, 08:06:41 AM »
Offer up the concept of a "relocalized" economy to liberals and watch them howl about how globalization and cheap goods benefit everyone.

Kriegsspiel

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #264 on: November 13, 2016, 09:19:01 AM »
No matter your political leanings, and opinions on who was the more vile candidate, the important thing to realize is that we'll all shortly be annihilated by an extinction-level impact and our atoms scattered among the stars.

JetBlast

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #265 on: November 13, 2016, 09:55:57 AM »
538 was the only model that was even close. Yes, still wrong, but they at least were within a polling error. All of the 99% chance models should lose all viewership.

Wrong.  The LA Times/USC poll correctly predicted a Trump win, but overstated by how much.  See:

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-trump-polls-20161109-story.html

The question that should be asked is not whether the poll was right, but why it was right?  Even a broken clock is right twice a day.  With numerous polls and pollsters, some will be right with luck.  Was 538 wrong because it got unlucky, or because it had a bad model?  Was the LAT/USC poll right because it had a good model, or because it got lucky.  In some cases both will be factors.

538 was pretty wrong, but most polls were in similar territory.  It looks like most got the turnout numbers wrong, which are hand-corrected or calibrated by pollsters.  They didn't anticipate that Trump would energize so many to turn out for him, and that made a few pct points difference, which was all that was needed to swing the midwest.

Polls are rarely spot on and the polling is definitely better and more informative than it was 20, 30 years ago.  But when people expect the polls to be so accurate that they can predict accurately the electoral vote outcome of a close race, there will be a lot of disappointment - the electoral vote magnifies differences in popular vote, and thus will swing wildly with errors in swing state predictions.

538 wasn't really all that wrong.  They correctly noted Clinton's weak positioning for the Electoral College beforehand and pointed out that if the votes swung within the statistical margin of error toward Trump he could win the election.  She had small leads in a lot of states in the polls, while Trump had mostly big leads that were unlikely for Clinton to flip.

They had the odds at 71/29 in favor of Clinton, but there had been plenty on their site that should have made Democrats very nervous going into election night.  One of the really interesting statistics they noted after the election was that if 1 in 100 Trump voters had instead voted for Clinton, she wins the election with over 300 electoral votes.

As you said, turnout seems to have been the reason most polls had Clinton winning.  The Democratic vote didn't turnout like it did for Obama, while Trump's campaign got middle class whites in the midwest out in numbers even higher than his campaign expected.  Pence brought the evangelical vote home. Trump's ability to not sit on his balls the last two weeks of the campaign probably helped some undecideds break his way while Clinton got dragged through the wringer again by FBI director Comey's letter.

MrMoogle

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #266 on: November 13, 2016, 10:12:53 AM »
538 was the only model that was even close. Yes, still wrong, but they at least were within a polling error. All of the 99% chance models should lose all viewership.

Wrong.  The LA Times/USC poll correctly predicted a Trump win, but overstated by how much.  See:

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-trump-polls-20161109-story.html

The question that should be asked is not whether the poll was right, but why it was right?  Even a broken clock is right twice a day.  With numerous polls and pollsters, some will be right with luck.  Was 538 wrong because it got unlucky, or because it had a bad model?  Was the LAT/USC poll right because it had a good model, or because it got lucky.  In some cases both will be factors.

538 was pretty wrong, but most polls were in similar territory.  It looks like most got the turnout numbers wrong, which are hand-corrected or calibrated by pollsters.  They didn't anticipate that Trump would energize so many to turn out for him, and that made a few pct points difference, which was all that was needed to swing the midwest.

Polls are rarely spot on and the polling is definitely better and more informative than it was 20, 30 years ago.  But when people expect the polls to be so accurate that they can predict accurately the electoral vote outcome of a close race, there will be a lot of disappointment - the electoral vote magnifies differences in popular vote, and thus will swing wildly with errors in swing state predictions.

538 wasn't really all that wrong.  They correctly noted Clinton's weak positioning for the Electoral College beforehand and pointed out that if the votes swung within the statistical margin of error toward Trump he could win the election.  She had small leads in a lot of states in the polls, while Trump had mostly big leads that were unlikely for Clinton to flip.

They had the odds at 71/29 in favor of Clinton, but there had been plenty on their site that should have made Democrats very nervous going into election night.  One of the really interesting statistics they noted after the election was that if 1 in 100 Trump voters had instead voted for Clinton, she wins the election with over 300 electoral votes.

As you said, turnout seems to have been the reason most polls had Clinton winning.  The Democratic vote didn't turnout like it did for Obama, while Trump's campaign got middle class whites in the midwest out in numbers even higher than his campaign expected.  Pence brought the evangelical vote home. Trump's ability to not sit on his balls the last two weeks of the campaign probably helped some undecideds break his way while Clinton got dragged through the wringer again by FBI director Comey's letter.
29% chance of Trump winning isn't necessarily wrong.  If you go to horse races, the horse with the highest probability doesn't always win.  Technically the 99% predictions aren't necessarily wrong either.  This could be that 1 in 100 chance, but it's unlikely.  The 538 prediction seems reasonable given the fairly close result.  A 99% probability that Trump wins would have been wrong too IMO, even though he won.

JetBlast

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #267 on: November 13, 2016, 10:44:52 AM »
538 was the only model that was even close. Yes, still wrong, but they at least were within a polling error. All of the 99% chance models should lose all viewership.

Wrong.  The LA Times/USC poll correctly predicted a Trump win, but overstated by how much.  See:

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-trump-polls-20161109-story.html

The question that should be asked is not whether the poll was right, but why it was right?  Even a broken clock is right twice a day.  With numerous polls and pollsters, some will be right with luck.  Was 538 wrong because it got unlucky, or because it had a bad model?  Was the LAT/USC poll right because it had a good model, or because it got lucky.  In some cases both will be factors.

538 was pretty wrong, but most polls were in similar territory.  It looks like most got the turnout numbers wrong, which are hand-corrected or calibrated by pollsters.  They didn't anticipate that Trump would energize so many to turn out for him, and that made a few pct points difference, which was all that was needed to swing the midwest.

Polls are rarely spot on and the polling is definitely better and more informative than it was 20, 30 years ago.  But when people expect the polls to be so accurate that they can predict accurately the electoral vote outcome of a close race, there will be a lot of disappointment - the electoral vote magnifies differences in popular vote, and thus will swing wildly with errors in swing state predictions.

538 wasn't really all that wrong.  They correctly noted Clinton's weak positioning for the Electoral College beforehand and pointed out that if the votes swung within the statistical margin of error toward Trump he could win the election.  She had small leads in a lot of states in the polls, while Trump had mostly big leads that were unlikely for Clinton to flip.

They had the odds at 71/29 in favor of Clinton, but there had been plenty on their site that should have made Democrats very nervous going into election night.  One of the really interesting statistics they noted after the election was that if 1 in 100 Trump voters had instead voted for Clinton, she wins the election with over 300 electoral votes.

As you said, turnout seems to have been the reason most polls had Clinton winning.  The Democratic vote didn't turnout like it did for Obama, while Trump's campaign got middle class whites in the midwest out in numbers even higher than his campaign expected.  Pence brought the evangelical vote home. Trump's ability to not sit on his balls the last two weeks of the campaign probably helped some undecideds break his way while Clinton got dragged through the wringer again by FBI director Comey's letter.
29% chance of Trump winning isn't necessarily wrong.  If you go to horse races, the horse with the highest probability doesn't always win.  Technically the 99% predictions aren't necessarily wrong either.  This could be that 1 in 100 chance, but it's unlikely.  The 538 prediction seems reasonable given the fairly close result.  A 99% probability that Trump wins would have been wrong too IMO, even though he won.
Very true.  Fivethirtyeight even had the chance of Clinton winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College at 10.5%, so it was something they had considered a not entirely improbably outcome.

mtnrider

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #268 on: November 13, 2016, 11:11:25 AM »
What about buying our own goods?  Everyone seems to be about "buy local" for food now - why not goods as well?

I wish this could be the answer, it's my gut reaction too.

But this is how economists think of it - imagine that I decided I'd only "buy" local things from my street.  Everyone would be poorer.  It'd be hard to make even basic things like food and clothes.  If I scale buying food up to my state, things get better, but odds are that I'd want to trade with California for strawberries, the midwest for wheat, Florida for oranges, etc... (only eating potatoes, kale, and blueberries would be boring!)

Specialization and the comparative advantage that other areas have make everyone better off with trade.

That's not to say that all trade is perfect.  There are tradeoffs - how much energy does it take to ship potatoes from Idaho to New England?  Should I buy Maine potatoes instead?  Would they taste better?

Kathryn K.

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #269 on: November 13, 2016, 11:36:25 AM »
What about buying our own goods?  Everyone seems to be about "buy local" for food now - why not goods as well?

I wish this could be the answer, it's my gut reaction too.

But this is how economists think of it - imagine that I decided I'd only "buy" local things from my street.  Everyone would be poorer.  It'd be hard to make even basic things like food and clothes.  If I scale buying food up to my state, things get better, but odds are that I'd want to trade with California for strawberries, the midwest for wheat, Florida for oranges, etc... (only eating potatoes, kale, and blueberries would be boring!)

Specialization and the comparative advantage that other areas have make everyone better off with trade.

That's not to say that all trade is perfect.  There are tradeoffs - how much energy does it take to ship potatoes from Idaho to New England?  Should I buy Maine potatoes instead?  Would they taste better?

Yeah, when I said "local", it was a tad hyperbolic to overall mean American as opposed to abroad - not necessarily down the street.

A mom

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #270 on: November 13, 2016, 11:45:18 AM »
No matter your political leanings, and opinions on who was the more vile candidate, the important thing to realize is that we'll all shortly be annihilated by an extinction-level impact and our atoms scattered among the stars.

Have to admit that this is how I am feeling.

dilinger

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #271 on: November 13, 2016, 12:32:25 PM »
So what's the plan slap tarrifs on everything and make imports too expensive to buy and make your exports to expensive to sell when other nations inevitably retaliate and then magically go back to a manufacturing economy?

It's like trying to save the Titanic after it hit the iceberg. Not gonna happen.

We're gonna make them buy our goods. It'll be great.

What about buying our own goods?  Everyone seems to be about "buy local" for food now - why not goods as well?

Because it's going to be EXPENSIVE.  People are already being hit hard by income inequality and poverty.  At least they can buy sheets made in Pakistan by someone working for $0.02/hr.  How's that going to work out when the people making those sheets are being paid $8.00/hr?

Go on over to Etsy to see what Made In America prices are like.  Make sure you select "handmade."  Obviously this isn't a 1-to-1 comparison, since most Etsy sellers are individuals who don't have a factory or assembly line to optimize production, but it's still a huge disparity in price compared to buying something produced in a country with cheap labor.

Mariposa

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #272 on: November 13, 2016, 12:37:30 PM »
No matter your political leanings, and opinions on who was the more vile candidate, the important thing to realize is that we'll all shortly be annihilated by an extinction-level impact and our atoms scattered among the stars.

This: perfect.

dilinger

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #273 on: November 13, 2016, 12:39:07 PM »
I should also point out the reason why Mustachians are so DIY-oriented is because of the high cost of North American (that includes Canada) labor.  If you visit a random South American country, things are expensive while labor is cheap.  It doesn't make financial sense to repair your house yourself, because you can hire someone for pennies to do it.  But getting that fancy new air conditioner or kitchen cabinets is pricy.  In North America, labor to install that air conditioner is just as much as the AC itself.  Now imagine if the cost of that AC doubled or tripled in price because the increased cost of labor to make the thing..

Moonwaves

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #274 on: November 13, 2016, 12:51:25 PM »
Didn't get through all four pages yet, so maybe somebody already linked to it, but I think this article does the best job I've seen of describing why red-staters feel the way they do.

http://www.cracked.com/blog/6-reasons-trumps-rise-that-no-one-talks-about/?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=SR&utm_campaign=SR&sr_source=lift_facebook
Thank you. I read this the other day and have been trying to find it again. :)

Metric Mouse

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #275 on: November 13, 2016, 12:53:16 PM »
I should also point out the reason why Mustachians are so DIY-oriented is because of the high cost of North American (that includes Canada) labor.  If you visit a random South American country, things are expensive while labor is cheap.  It doesn't make financial sense to repair your house yourself, because you can hire someone for pennies to do it.  But getting that fancy new air conditioner or kitchen cabinets is pricy.  In North America, labor to install that air conditioner is just as much as the AC itself.  Now imagine if the cost of that AC doubled or tripled in price because the increased cost of labor to make the thing..

I would gladly pay more for goods, if it meant that everyone in America made a living wage. Unfortunately, as seen by the posters in this thread, not everyone agrees.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2016, 05:27:57 PM by Metric Mouse »

dilinger

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #276 on: November 13, 2016, 02:25:12 PM »
I should also point out the reason why Mustachians are so DIY-oriented is because of the high cost of North American (that includes Canada) labor.  If you visit a random South American country, things are expensive while labor is cheap.  It doesn't make financial sense to repair your house yourself, because you can hire someone for pennies to do it.  But getting that fancy new air conditioner or kitchen cabinets is pricy.  In North America, labor to install that air conditioner is just as much as the AC itself.  Now imagine if the cost of that AC doubled or tripled in price because the increased cost of labor to make the thing..

I would gladly pay more for goods, if it meant that everyone in Maerica made a living wage. Unfortunately, as seen by the posters in this thread, not everyone agrees.

Likewise- I voted for a $15 minimum wage in my city and a $13.50 minimum wage for my state. Raising the minimum wage is a way of increasing prosperity without a shock to lower-income families.  Raising the prices of products while simultaneously providing low-paying jobs may or may not help lower-income families, but it will be accompanied by what feels like an inflationary shock either way.

mtnrider

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #277 on: November 13, 2016, 03:11:28 PM »
Yeah, when I said "local", it was a tad hyperbolic to overall mean American as opposed to abroad - not necessarily down the street.

The street level is included as an example for scale only.  The advantages of trade are most obvious at that level.

Fortunately, the US is a big country, so we have more areas where people can have comparative advantage vs our street. But really, free trade (typically!) is a net good.  The BIG problem is who is made better off.  Right now quite a bit of trade enriches the already wealthy, with a little going to cheaper goods for everyone.  That's a horrible situation for the guy who got laid off from his low skill job.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2016, 03:32:08 PM by mtnrider »

ShoulderThingThatGoesUp

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #278 on: November 13, 2016, 04:53:01 PM »
I should also point out the reason why Mustachians are so DIY-oriented is because of the high cost of North American (that includes Canada) labor.  If you visit a random South American country, things are expensive while labor is cheap.  It doesn't make financial sense to repair your house yourself, because you can hire someone for pennies to do it.  But getting that fancy new air conditioner or kitchen cabinets is pricy.  In North America, labor to install that air conditioner is just as much as the AC itself.  Now imagine if the cost of that AC doubled or tripled in price because the increased cost of labor to make the thing..

I would gladly pay more for goods, if it meant that everyone in Maerica made a living wage. Unfortunately, as seen by the posters in this thread, not everyone agrees.

Likewise- I voted for a $15 minimum wage in my city and a $13.50 minimum wage for my state. Raising the minimum wage is a way of increasing prosperity without a shock to lower-income families.  Raising the prices of products while simultaneously providing low-paying jobs may or may not help lower-income families, but it will be accompanied by what feels like an inflationary shock either way.

The minimum wage is and always will be $0.

gerardc

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #279 on: November 13, 2016, 05:25:13 PM »
I buy the rural poor/decaying small towns argument, but that doesn't explain the huge swathes of college educated whites who like Trump.

Really only racism does.

I'm a young healthy white male, and I hear many white people arguments.

They're sick of the excessive "tolerance", affirmative action and politically correct discourse that masquerade as efforts to increase diversity but are actually racism and anger against white males.

Example:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3wa5Z8kp-7s

"Check your privilege cunt"

Males can't retaliate for fear of going to jail, and females/minorities have the bigger end of the stick.

White males are currently discriminated against in the US. They need a higher SAT score to be admitted to Stanford than any woman or minority. People are trying to fight (old, obsolete) racism with more (reverse) racism, and white males are not happy.

I hear that all the time behind closed doors. Seriously, I think this is a big issue for the Trump vote.

dilinger

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #280 on: November 13, 2016, 10:17:53 PM »

White males are currently discriminated against in the US. They need a higher SAT score to be admitted to Stanford than any woman or minority. People are trying to fight (old, obsolete) racism with more (reverse) racism, and white males are not happy.

I hear that all the time behind closed doors. Seriously, I think this is a big issue for the Trump vote.

1) There's no such thing as "reverse racism". Racism is racism, period.

2) Decades/centuries of racism left certain people in very different situations.  Housing is one very obvious example.  Redlining meant that non-white people were forced to live in certain areas of cities.  Whereas white people were able to build up wealth over time as their house and land gained value, people that were forced to live in red-lined areas often saw no increased value in their homes, or even a decline in value.  After 50+ years of this, the result is that people who were doing the same jobs that lived in white areas were able to sell their homes and pass on large inheritences to their kids, while people in the red-lined areas were not. This is not some old, obsolete thing - here's just one example of a trend nation-wide where the homes of white people recovered after the market crash in 2009, yet homes of black people are still valued incredibly low: http://money.cnn.com/2015/10/07/news/economy/black-wealth-net-worth/

That means people are starting in very different places.  The equity-vs-equality thing shows how some people who start with a disadvantage need more to reach the same level as someone born with an advantage.  This isn't strictly a racial thing, as much as a generic-poverty thing.  But in general, you can see racial trends based on past racial inequality.  THIS is why colleges might do the thing that you described.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2016, 10:23:09 PM by dilinger »

gerardc

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #281 on: November 13, 2016, 10:37:02 PM »
...

It's not the job of private parties (universities, employers, special groups, individuals, etc.) to correct for past racism or unfairness, because that can degenerate way too quickly. The correct way for those entities to act is with equality. Now, the government might want to compensate people who have been wronged in the past, with subsidies or other measures, and that's perfectly acceptable because it's controlled. Expecting private parties to correct for the past opens up a can a worms -- when can we decide we have corrected enough and we're now over-correcting? We can't.

Equality is more pratical than equity in non-utopian societies. Someone with a mental disability and an IQ of 85 who scores higher than average for his condition (but still way below standards) shouldn't be admitted to Stanford based solely on equity. Equity is really only viable for certain specific categories, like health care, housing or food, but life is inherently unfair, and we can't intervene in that system without consequences.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2016, 10:45:57 PM by gerardc »

MDM

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #282 on: November 13, 2016, 10:57:57 PM »
I buy the rural poor/decaying small towns argument, but that doesn't explain the huge swathes of college educated whites who like Trump.

Really only racism does.

This is it, really. Trump won high income people (>$50k) and Hillary low-income (<$50k) so a purely economic explanation just doesn't work to explain how this happened. And this is bigger and nastier than just racism, it's something along the lines of cultural sadism. Deriving satisfaction from having the state affirm and act out your personal hatred of others, whether they be of a different race/ethnicity, country of origin, religion, sexual orientation, or political affiliation.

This is very close to my thinking as well.

The way people disguise this is they say that "working class" voters went for Trump. But that's completely wrong. There are a lot of "working class" black and Hispanic voters, but they overwhelmingly backed Clinton. You have to ask yourself why that is. Are they less angry than white people about stagnant wages or income inequality? Well, why would they be?

When you say that "working class" people backed Trump, you really mean "white working class". It's impossible to have a productive conversation about the roots of Trump's support until everyone acknowledges that.
I'm surprised nobody has mentioned that Clinton is...white.  If America is so racist, why was Obama elected but Clinton wasn't? 

Lagom

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #283 on: November 13, 2016, 11:07:12 PM »
I buy the rural poor/decaying small towns argument, but that doesn't explain the huge swathes of college educated whites who like Trump.

Really only racism does.

This is it, really. Trump won high income people (>$50k) and Hillary low-income (<$50k) so a purely economic explanation just doesn't work to explain how this happened. And this is bigger and nastier than just racism, it's something along the lines of cultural sadism. Deriving satisfaction from having the state affirm and act out your personal hatred of others, whether they be of a different race/ethnicity, country of origin, religion, sexual orientation, or political affiliation.

This is very close to my thinking as well.

The way people disguise this is they say that "working class" voters went for Trump. But that's completely wrong. There are a lot of "working class" black and Hispanic voters, but they overwhelmingly backed Clinton. You have to ask yourself why that is. Are they less angry than white people about stagnant wages or income inequality? Well, why would they be?

When you say that "working class" people backed Trump, you really mean "white working class". It's impossible to have a productive conversation about the roots of Trump's support until everyone acknowledges that.
I'm surprised nobody has mentioned that Clinton is...white.  If America is so racist, why was Obama elected but Clinton wasn't?

Because that argument has the sophistication of a 2nd grade book report?

MDM

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #284 on: November 13, 2016, 11:10:45 PM »
Because that argument has the sophistication of a 2nd grade book report?
No, I don't think that's it.

dilinger

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #285 on: November 13, 2016, 11:19:47 PM »
It's not the job of private parties (universities, employers, special groups, individuals, etc.) to correct for past racism or unfairness, because that can degenerate way too quickly. The correct way for those entities to act is with equality.

That's really up to the private party to decide, isn't it?  I don't believe there's any requirement for private universities to do this, but it sure looks bad when your school is 80% white.  You can certainly argue that the practice is discriminatory against whites; this has been argued in court.  Just this year, the Supreme Court ruled that it was allowed. http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/supreme-court-upholds-affirmative-action-college-admissions-n582981


LeRainDrop

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #286 on: November 13, 2016, 11:29:51 PM »
I'm surprised nobody has mentioned that Clinton is...white.  If America is so racist, why was Obama elected but Clinton wasn't?

I thought someone posted this here earlier, but perhaps I saw it in another thread or on facebook.  From the Washington Post, These former Obama strongholds sealed the election for Trump:

Quote
Of the nearly 700 counties that twice sent Obama to the White House, a stunning one-third flipped to support Trump.

Trump also won 194 of the 207 counties that voted for Obama either in 2008 or 2012.

By contrast, of those 2,200 counties that never supported Obama, Clinton was only able to win six.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2016, 11:31:52 PM by LeRainDrop »

gerardc

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #287 on: November 14, 2016, 12:14:17 AM »
You can certainly argue that the practice is discriminatory against whites; this has been argued in court.  Just this year, the Supreme Court ruled that it was allowed. http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/supreme-court-upholds-affirmative-action-college-admissions-n582981

That's 100% discriminatory against whites. Private parties shouldn't have that power; a proper solution should come from government compensation.

Now we have the situation where a Stanford admission or a prestigious job at a big company for a minority says less about that person's abilities than for others. Female/minority computer science students who code relatively poorly but get high paying software engineering jobs. That's the case today.

We really need to cut the politically correct BS and tell things how they are. People get so sensitive with what they wish the world was in their utopian view, but is clearly not. We need to fix the root causes of the issues instead of patching up the symptoms with affirmative action. It doesn't fix anything and makes everything worse by introducing unfairness and racial/class sensitivity.

Cathy

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #288 on: November 14, 2016, 12:34:30 AM »
[A] prestigious job at a big company for a minority says less about that person's abilities than for others. Female/minority computer science students who code relatively poorly but get high paying software engineering jobs. That's the case today.

That's the case, is it? I doubt it. In fact, I suspect your extraordinary claim has no basis in evidence. As far as I know, none of the top tech companies apply a different hiring bar for "[f]emale/minority computer science students".

Are you sure the fact that these students are "[f]emale" or "minorit[ies]" isn't just colouring your view of how well they "code"?

To the extent affirmative action actually exists, I think you do raise a potentially somewhat-reasonable argument against it: namely, it could lead to people's accomplishments or skills being devalued because those people happen to be members of a disadvantaged group (typified by the perennial claim that "you only got that job because you're a girl"). However, the sad reality is that this kind of devaluation of the work of disadvantaged individuals occurs whether or not the alleged affirmative action actually exists, as your post demonstrates.
« Last Edit: November 14, 2016, 12:43:10 AM by Cathy »

dilinger

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #289 on: November 14, 2016, 12:50:43 AM »
[A] prestigious job at a big company for a minority says less about that person's abilities than for others. Female/minority computer science students who code relatively poorly but get high paying software engineering jobs. That's the case today.

That's the case, is it? I doubt it. In fact, I suspect your extraordinary claim has no basis in evidence. As far as I know, none of the top tech companies apply a different hiring bar for "[f]emale/minority computer science students".

It's definitely not the case, at least when it comes to high paying software engineering jobs in the private sector.  Every single software company I've worked for has been > 90% male, other than HR and other support roles.  Every single startup I've ever worked for (<= 10 employees) has been 100% male.  I'm retired now, but in my wife's company the programming team (10-15 people) is 100% male.  The entire company has 3 technical (stats/epidemiology) females, out of 50-ish technical employees.

Software engineering is a sausagefest.

gerardc

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #290 on: November 14, 2016, 12:58:37 AM »
...

I know a recruiter at a TOP software company whose job is specifically to increase diversity in engineering new hires. Of course, the official stance is that they "only hire qualified people" and "only give a slight nudge to minorities when 2 candidates are a tie"..., but in practice no 2 candidates are ever completely equal, and they do favor women/minorities significantly. (Say, for an interview score out of 10, they'll roughly give 1 point to those groups. No joke)

Then, there is anecdotal evidence collected from many students/workers in that field. Women/minorities in CS classes with average GPAs who got internships at top companies in their first year just by applying; while others with betters skills did not. Same for SAT scores and university admissions, but this is more expected because universities are open about it. Or female coworkers who in private will confide that their coding abilities are not up to par, and get by mostly by being social and targeting managerial roles.

Don't get me wrong. Plenty of females and minorities are extremely talented and skilled. I'm talking about the distribution and the average, here.

Also, I'm not claiming 100% certainty or large-scale scientific evidence. Just like you are not. You can't provide evidence of equal skills for any sub-population, like I can't. This is my educated opinion, and I wouldn't be surprised it would hold in a larger study if it were to happen. But again, people are so sensitive about those subjects that they would try all day to find an excuse or an alternate explanation (like confirmation bias) to account for scientific results, on the basis that all sub-populations (gender, races, etc.) are obviously all equally skilled. This is obviously absurd for physical features of sub-populations, like foot length or height, but for some reason people have trouble accepting that intellectual properties may also differ. Equality of outcomes among different sub-populations of humans isn't a fact of life. Sorry.


It's definitely not the case, at least when it comes to high paying software engineering jobs in the private sector.  Every single software company I've worked for has been > 90% male, other than HR and other support roles.  Every single startup I've ever worked for (<= 10 employees) has been 100% male.  I'm retired now, but in my wife's company the programming team (10-15 people) is 100% male.  The entire company has 3 technical (stats/epidemiology) females, out of 50-ish technical employees.

Yeah, software engineers are 90% males. But what if with equal hiring standards, it would be 94% male? Those stats don't prove fairness.

LeRainDrop

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #291 on: November 14, 2016, 01:38:17 AM »
Can we please move on from the topic of affirmative action, or lack thereof, in high-paying software engineering jobs?  I kinda doubt that's "what's really going on out in the country."

I would love to hear reactions to the Washington Post article that I linked above.

From the Washington Post, These former Obama strongholds sealed the election for Trump: . . . .

Metric Mouse

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #292 on: November 14, 2016, 05:15:48 AM »
It's not the job of private parties (universities, employers, special groups, individuals, etc.) to correct for past racism or unfairness, because that can degenerate way too quickly. The correct way for those entities to act is with equality.

That's really up to the private party to decide, isn't it?  I don't believe there's any requirement for private universities to do this, but it sure looks bad when your school is 80% white.  You can certainly argue that the practice is discriminatory against whites; this has been argued in court.  Just this year, the Supreme Court ruled that it was allowed. http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/supreme-court-upholds-affirmative-action-college-admissions-n582981

Why should it be left up to the private party? Would it be ok for private parties to discriminate against minorities?  If private parties can set the bar, it won't lead to equity or equality for minority groups.

Second: 80% white might 'look bad', but that's roughly the demographics of the USA (2010 census). Roughly 73% of the USA identified as white at that time; I could see how one could argue that policies designed to skew the demographics of a group to significantly different than that of the general population would be unfair.

Cathy

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #293 on: November 14, 2016, 09:16:59 AM »
Can we please move on from the topic of affirmative action, or lack thereof, in high-paying software engineering jobs?  I kinda doubt that's "what's really going on out in the country."

If you are intending to suggest that the discussion of alleged affirmative action is off-topic in this thread, I disagree. I also disagree with your analysis of the scope of the thread.

If we assume for a moment that the original poster completely defines the permissible scope of topics in a thread, then the title of this thread still needs to be considered in the context of the entire original post. The premise of the original post is a reaction by the original poster to a quote from user "Another Reader", in which Another Reader proposed that "[m]any middle class people are very angry about what has happened to them over the last 10 years". This quote caused the original poster to suspect that he or she was living in a bubble (the District of Columbia), and he or she then posted this thread to solicit views from outside of that bubble (i.e. the rest of the USA).

Given this context, the phrase "out in the country" in the title could at least arguably refer to the rest of the United States outside of where the original poster lives, not just rural areas. This would be consistent with the interpretation of many of the respondents in this thread, who have posted general theories about the motives and beliefs of suspected or actual Trump voters in general, not just ones who live in rural areas. (To be sure, rural areas are discussed as well, no doubt because of their role in granting Trump apparent victory, but I do not detect that most respondents understood the thread to be limited to a discussion of rural areas.)

That said, even if we assume that "out in the country" referred specifically to rural areas (which I doubt), the ongoing discussion of affirmative action in a particular field is still directly related to the original scope of the topic for at least two distinct reasons:
  • Affirmation action is something that one could imagine that "many middle class people are very angry about", which again was the original scope of the thread. Even if the actual affirmative action practices are happening in big coastal cities and outside of rural areas, people who live in rural areas are still aware of those practices, and still able to get angry about them (and if comments on popular news media articles are any indication, they actually are angry about these alleged practices). To be clear, I express no view on the merits of affirmative action, to the extent it actually exists.
  • The existence of affirmation action, or not, affects the ease at which members of historically privileged groups living in rural areas are able to move out of those rural areas, increase their income, and increase their standard of living. If more rural voters had done that, there would have been fewer of them in areas that voted for Donald Trump, and more of them in coastal cities, which conceivably could have affected the vote.

Therefore, even if we assume that the original post defines the outer limits of permissible discussion in the thread, and even if we assume that the title of the thread referred specifically to rural areas (which is not the best interpretation), this line of discussion is still directly on topic for those two distinct reasons.

However, the analysis doesn't stop there because the original post does not define the outside limits of permissible discussion in a thread. In a conversation, the topic naturally progresses over time, and this isn't necessarily something that needs to be clamped down and suffocated; indeed, doing so might prevent interesting and relevant ideas from surfacing. In this thread, the discussion of affirmative action didn't come out of nowhere, but was a natural progression of the conversation from other posts, including posts to which you did not object. This is a further, and alternative, reason why this line of discussion is not objectionable in this thread.


I know a recruiter at a TOP software company whose job is specifically to increase diversity in engineering new hires.

Diversity recruiting is not a secret, but as you acknowledge yourself, it doesn't necessarily entail applying a different or lower standard to "[f]emale" or "minority" candidates. If we take the companies at their word, the theory behind diversity recruiting is that plenty of qualified women and minority candidates exist in the wild, but that traditional sourcing methods have simply failed to locate them; hence, diversity recruiters are tasked with broadening the search to include other avenues for finding candidates. Once the candidates are found, however, the same hiring standards apply to them as to all other candidates; it's not a different or lower bar, according to the information put out by the companies and the people who work at them (including in the Quora answer I just linked to).


Also, I'm not claiming 100% certainty or large-scale scientific evidence. Just like you are not. You can't provide evidence of equal skills for any sub-population, like I can't.

You are right that I haven't provided any particularly convincing evidence, but I'm not the one making the extraordinary claim that women and minority employees in a particular field are "relatively poor[]" at their jobs compared to white (etc.) men. Extraordinary claims should come with extraordinary evidence. In the absence of any compelling evidence either way, we should refrain from making claims that impugn the abilities of members of disadvantaged groups.
« Last Edit: November 14, 2016, 09:19:16 AM by Cathy »

LeRainDrop

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #294 on: November 14, 2016, 10:25:11 AM »
Can we please move on from the topic of affirmative action, or lack thereof, in high-paying software engineering jobs?  I kinda doubt that's "what's really going on out in the country."

If you are intending to suggest that the discussion of alleged affirmative action is off-topic in this thread, I disagree. I also disagree with your analysis of the scope of the thread.

No, that's not what I'm suggesting.  I'm just opining that it's really boring to keep reading about this very specific point of affirmative action in the high-paying software engineering field.
« Last Edit: November 14, 2016, 10:27:35 AM by LeRainDrop »

cube.37

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #295 on: November 14, 2016, 10:34:33 AM »
On the topic of affirmative action, as a recruiter, I hate what I've been seeing at the board level. Companies like JPMorgan, Walmart, etc have a ton of pressure to increase diversity at the board level. However, there are only so many female or black successful CEOs, that they lower their standards for a minority board member.

For example, one of our clients is a large financial services company. They, like many other boards, have 1-3 minority board members. Since one of them is hitting the mandatory retirement age in a year, we have been focusing almost exclusively on finding a diverse candidate. Usually our research parameters are something along the lines of Fortune 250 CEO, high-ranking SEC official, etc, but there are only so many minorities at that level of seniority. We are forced to bring down the necessary qualifications to find someone who might have led a tiny public firm and has some board experience.

TLDR; I don't like that companies are hiring underqualified board members to make stockholders happy by checking the diversity tickbox. Instead, we should be focused on increasing the number of women & minorities that get through the lower ranks and to the senior management level.

dilinger

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #296 on: November 14, 2016, 10:48:31 AM »
Why should it be left up to the private party? Would it be ok for private parties to discriminate against minorities?  If private parties can set the bar, it won't lead to equity or equality for minority groups.
Of course it wouldn't be okay to discriminate against minorities, but that's exactly what happened for centuries.  SCOTUS thinks it's okay to not just do away with that, but actually discriminate in the opposite direction.  I personally think there are better ways of achieving the same thing. but SCOTUS's opinion counts more than mine. :)

Regarding the 80% thing; optics are optics.  People and organizations care about how their perceived.

Jrr85

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #297 on: November 14, 2016, 11:31:09 AM »

You are right that I haven't provided any particularly convincing evidence, but I'm not the one making the extraordinary claim that women and minority employees in a particular field are "relatively poor[]" at their jobs compared to white (etc.) men. Extraordinary claims should come with extraordinary evidence. In the absence of any compelling evidence either way, we should refrain from making claims that impugn the abilities of members of disadvantaged groups.

You are making the no less extraordinary claim that the default is that there is no difference in ability in particular population subgroups. 

And I don't see where he said anything that would impugn the abilities of members of disadvantaged groups.  Software development is not the pinnacle of human achievement, and if it turned out that excellent software developers were present in some population subgroups at a higher rate than others, that wouldn't say anything in particular about the different population subgroups.   

Chris22

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #298 on: November 14, 2016, 11:44:01 AM »
It's not the job of private parties (universities, employers, special groups, individuals, etc.) to correct for past racism or unfairness, because that can degenerate way too quickly. The correct way for those entities to act is with equality.

That's really up to the private party to decide, isn't it?  I don't believe there's any requirement for private universities to do this, but it sure looks bad when your school is 80% white.  You can certainly argue that the practice is discriminatory against whites; this has been argued in court.  Just this year, the Supreme Court ruled that it was allowed. http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/supreme-court-upholds-affirmative-action-college-admissions-n582981

My alma mater is 76% white...?

MrMoogle

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Re: What's really going on out in the country? Why
« Reply #299 on: November 14, 2016, 12:17:50 PM »
It's not the job of private parties (universities, employers, special groups, individuals, etc.) to correct for past racism or unfairness, because that can degenerate way too quickly. The correct way for those entities to act is with equality.

That's really up to the private party to decide, isn't it?  I don't believe there's any requirement for private universities to do this, but it sure looks bad when your school is 80% white.  You can certainly argue that the practice is discriminatory against whites; this has been argued in court.  Just this year, the Supreme Court ruled that it was allowed. http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/supreme-court-upholds-affirmative-action-college-admissions-n582981
The Supreme Court has been wrong before, or at least changed its mind.  This only proves what is legal, not what is right.

Why does it look bad when your school is 80% white?  What is the range of acceptable percentages?  How do you come up with the acceptability criterion?

On the other hand, does it look bad if your school is 80% black?