Poll

Who do you think will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

Donald Trump
53 (42.1%)
Joe Biden
60 (47.6%)
3rd-Party Candidate or Black Swan Event (e.g., Trump or Biden dies)
13 (10.3%)

Total Members Voted: 126

Author Topic: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?  (Read 3064 times)

Eowynd

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #50 on: May 19, 2020, 11:11:44 AM »
I'm gonna agree with nereo.

MI will not vote for Trump at this point. Whitmer is taking care of business there and publicly feuding with Trump.


I'm not saying that you're wrong because we are all just speculating at this point.  However, my experience contradicts your statement.  I, a Michigan resident, did not vote for Trump in the last election but I will absolutely vote for him over Biden.  Also, Whitmer is extremely unpopular among my friends (and me).

bacchi

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #51 on: May 19, 2020, 11:44:11 AM »
I'm gonna agree with nereo.

MI will not vote for Trump at this point. Whitmer is taking care of business there and publicly feuding with Trump.


I'm not saying that you're wrong because we are all just speculating at this point.  However, my experience contradicts your statement.  I, a Michigan resident, did not vote for Trump in the last election but I will absolutely vote for him over Biden.  Also, Whitmer is extremely unpopular among my friends (and me).

I was basing my speculation on governor approval polling at the time. At the time, she had really high numbers (~70%). That could've changed since last month and there's still a lot of time for Whitmer to become disliked.

Laserjet3051

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #52 on: May 19, 2020, 12:40:23 PM »
I'm gonna agree with nereo.

MI will not vote for Trump at this point. Whitmer is taking care of business there and publicly feuding with Trump.


I'm not saying that you're wrong because we are all just speculating at this point.  However, my experience contradicts your statement.  I, a Michigan resident, did not vote for Trump in the last election but I will absolutely vote for him over Biden.  Also, Whitmer is extremely unpopular among my friends (and me).

I agree. I live in W MI and Whitmer is absolutely reviled amongst almost everybody I know. Folks here, who are self identified democrats are really questioning the parties values as Whitmer pulverizes this state into dust. Myself and many other associates in MI have every intention of voting Trump come November.

American GenX

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #53 on: May 21, 2020, 09:01:31 AM »

Trump has done such a horrible job, and it seems to have gotten even worse with the coronavirus, that I just can't believe he will be re-elected.

nereo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #54 on: May 21, 2020, 09:28:26 AM »
Seems like Gov Whitmer (D-MI) has high approval ratings for both her handling of the pandemic and overall job performance. Notably her ratings are double-digits higher than DJT

Interesting to see if it holds through the fall. Given how close the 2016 election was a difference of just a percent could flip the state.

Warlord1986

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #55 on: May 21, 2020, 09:31:48 AM »
I voted Biden, but it's more hope than prediction.

Same.

I frequently pray for God to remove that evil man from office.

HBFIRE

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #56 on: May 26, 2020, 05:11:31 PM »
"We are about to see the best economic data we’ve seen in the history of this country," says a top former economic adviser to Obama.

“Q3 may be the single best GDP quarter since regular data. 2nd half super big growth, transitioning to 4% or more in 2021.”

It will be hard to beat Trump if this proves accurate.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/26/2020-election-democrats-281470?fbclid=IwAR2yD9y92KWszMDS34TFvxDXC71LNWusiNC7AO_AspXAVpPt00hkd5eY0Eg

nereo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #57 on: May 26, 2020, 05:28:39 PM »
"We are about to see the best economic data we’ve seen in the history of this country," says a top former economic adviser to Obama.

“Q3 may be the single best GDP quarter since regular data. 2nd half super big growth, transitioning to 4% or more in 2021.”

It will be hard to beat Trump if this proves accurate.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/26/2020-election-democrats-281470?fbclid=IwAR2yD9y92KWszMDS34TFvxDXC71LNWusiNC7AO_AspXAVpPt00hkd5eY0Eg

Having “the best”* economic growth after two quarters of the absolute worst still makes for a pretty terrible year.  Q1 was -4.8% and Q2 will close in the negative as well unless we get a miracle in June.  Besides the averages, the problem with the GOP banking on Q3 is the numbers won’t be out until October, by which time a lot of voters will have made up their minds.  Unemployment will still be high as well state budget shortfalls.  That’s the pain people notice, not headline GDP numbers or the markets.  It’s hard to see how the Trump Economy is anything but a net-loss of jobs by this fall.

Trump promised growth of 4% “and beyond” since he was a candidate.  Best we managed during the Trump economy was 3.5% post tax-cuts, and all of 2019 we were in the 2.x% range. 

HBFIRE

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #58 on: May 26, 2020, 05:45:48 PM »
"We are about to see the best economic data we’ve seen in the history of this country," says a top former economic adviser to Obama.

“Q3 may be the single best GDP quarter since regular data. 2nd half super big growth, transitioning to 4% or more in 2021.”

It will be hard to beat Trump if this proves accurate.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/26/2020-election-democrats-281470?fbclid=IwAR2yD9y92KWszMDS34TFvxDXC71LNWusiNC7AO_AspXAVpPt00hkd5eY0Eg

Having “the best”* economic growth after two quarters of the absolute worst still makes for a pretty terrible year.  Q1 was -4.8% and Q2 will close in the negative as well unless we get a miracle in June.  Besides the averages, the problem with the GOP banking on Q3 is the numbers won’t be out until October, by which time a lot of voters will have made up their minds.  Unemployment will still be high as well state budget shortfalls.  That’s the pain people notice, not headline GDP numbers or the markets.  It’s hard to see how the Trump Economy is anything but a net-loss of jobs by this fall.

Trump promised growth of 4% “and beyond” since he was a candidate.  Best we managed during the Trump economy was 3.5% post tax-cuts, and all of 2019 we were in the 2.x% range.

I agree, but that's not what matters when it comes to voters.  Perception is.  They will think in terms of what's happened in the early part of the year.   Trump will campaign (truthfully) about explosive monthly employment number increases and highest quarter GDP in history. 
« Last Edit: May 26, 2020, 05:57:56 PM by HBFIRE »

bacchi

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #59 on: May 26, 2020, 06:02:17 PM »
"We are about to see the best economic data we’ve seen in the history of this country," says a top former economic adviser to Obama.

“Q3 may be the single best GDP quarter since regular data. 2nd half super big growth, transitioning to 4% or more in 2021.”

It will be hard to beat Trump if this proves accurate.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/26/2020-election-democrats-281470?fbclid=IwAR2yD9y92KWszMDS34TFvxDXC71LNWusiNC7AO_AspXAVpPt00hkd5eY0Eg

Having “the best”* economic growth after two quarters of the absolute worst still makes for a pretty terrible year.  Q1 was -4.8% and Q2 will close in the negative as well unless we get a miracle in June.  Besides the averages, the problem with the GOP banking on Q3 is the numbers won’t be out until October, by which time a lot of voters will have made up their minds.  Unemployment will still be high as well state budget shortfalls.  That’s the pain people notice, not headline GDP numbers or the markets.  It’s hard to see how the Trump Economy is anything but a net-loss of jobs by this fall.

Trump promised growth of 4% “and beyond” since he was a candidate.  Best we managed during the Trump economy was 3.5% post tax-cuts, and all of 2019 we were in the 2.x% range.

I agree, but that's not what matters when it comes to voters.  Perception is.  They will think in terms of what's happened in the early part of the year.

Trump's campaign will have to craft the right ads to avoid looking foolish, as Goolsbee noted,

Quote
“There’s a high risk you look completely out of touch if you still have double-digit unemployment rates.”

Pushing this narrative will be difficult in certain hard hit states, like Florida, where tourism will still be depressed. I.e., "The economy is doing great, I'm told, but my hotel/car rental/airline job is still gone."

There's also the problem of the PPP loan forgiveness period running out this month and next. Some people will rebound back to unemployment when their employers once again run out of money. This could limit the July unemployment decrease (and possibly August as well).

nereo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #60 on: May 26, 2020, 07:22:43 PM »
"We are about to see the best economic data we’ve seen in the history of this country," says a top former economic adviser to Obama.

“Q3 may be the single best GDP quarter since regular data. 2nd half super big growth, transitioning to 4% or more in 2021.”

It will be hard to beat Trump if this proves accurate.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/26/2020-election-democrats-281470?fbclid=IwAR2yD9y92KWszMDS34TFvxDXC71LNWusiNC7AO_AspXAVpPt00hkd5eY0Eg

Having “the best”* economic growth after two quarters of the absolute worst still makes for a pretty terrible year.  Q1 was -4.8% and Q2 will close in the negative as well unless we get a miracle in June.  Besides the averages, the problem with the GOP banking on Q3 is the numbers won’t be out until October, by which time a lot of voters will have made up their minds.  Unemployment will still be high as well state budget shortfalls.  That’s the pain people notice, not headline GDP numbers or the markets.  It’s hard to see how the Trump Economy is anything but a net-loss of jobs by this fall.

Trump promised growth of 4% “and beyond” since he was a candidate.  Best we managed during the Trump economy was 3.5% post tax-cuts, and all of 2019 we were in the 2.x% range.

I agree, but that's not what matters when it comes to voters.  Perception is.  They will think in terms of what's happened in the early part of the year.   Trump will campaign (truthfully) about explosive monthly employment number increases and highest quarter GDP in history.

That’s exactly why I don’t think this needle can be threaded.  There’s a well-known phenomenon that recessions end in practice long before they do in people’s psyche.  I remember in 2011, when the market was booming a majority of people still said they though the US was in a recession.  Ironically a majority thought the stock market had gone down, not up.

People are going to remember the high unemployment, the uncertainty, the economic hardship. Precious few actually know whether the Market is up or down, but they remember whether they (or someone they know) was laid off recently.  Even more crucial, it seems unlikely most of the 35MM newly unemployed will be back to work.  It’s is own form of recency-bias.  It doesnt matter if the employment rate is dropping several percentage points per quarter - it’s where it’s been that matters, not the direction it’s going.  And even optimistic projections have us at double-digits by the end of the summer.

talltexan

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #61 on: May 27, 2020, 09:17:13 AM »
Professional economist here.

There is no q3 growth number in GDP that is sufficiently high that it would make me think Trump would be better at growing the economy at this stage. It's not enough to consider the economic data, but also to consider the policy set and how that would translate to future growth.


bacchi

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #62 on: May 27, 2020, 12:58:57 PM »
Professional economist here.

There is no q3 growth number in GDP that is sufficiently high that it would make me think Trump would be better at growing the economy at this stage. It's not enough to consider the economic data, but also to consider the policy set and how that would translate to future growth.

Yeah but you're a professional economist. :)

If we're talking about Trump voter enthusiasm, and changing the minds of independents, ads about "+10% growth in Q3!" sound great right before the election. It gives people optimism about the future, which is how Obama won in 2012 when the economy was digging its way out of of the GFC.

It may be too little, too late, as nereo wrote. There might not be enough enough undecideds to matter when the draft numbers are released in late October (though it wouldn't surprise me if Trump pushes the BEA to release a pre-draft report weeks earlier).

nereo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #63 on: May 27, 2020, 02:10:50 PM »
Professional economist here.

There is no q3 growth number in GDP that is sufficiently high that it would make me think Trump would be better at growing the economy at this stage. It's not enough to consider the economic data, but also to consider the policy set and how that would translate to future growth.

Yeah but you're a professional economist. :)

If we're talking about Trump voter enthusiasm, and changing the minds of independents, ads about "+10% growth in Q3!" sound great right before the election. It gives people optimism about the future, which is how Obama won in 2012 when the economy was digging its way out of of the GFC.

It may be too little, too late, as nereo wrote. There might not be enough enough undecideds to matter when the draft numbers are released in late October (though it wouldn't surprise me if Trump pushes the BEA to release a pre-draft report weeks earlier).

See, I would have said the converse; The GOP *lost* in no small part because of the economy, even though the economic rebound was well underway by the time anyone had cast their ballot. We are hardwired to remember pain more than pleasure, and this is especially true of recessions.

bacchi

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #64 on: May 27, 2020, 03:42:29 PM »
Professional economist here.

There is no q3 growth number in GDP that is sufficiently high that it would make me think Trump would be better at growing the economy at this stage. It's not enough to consider the economic data, but also to consider the policy set and how that would translate to future growth.

Yeah but you're a professional economist. :)

If we're talking about Trump voter enthusiasm, and changing the minds of independents, ads about "+10% growth in Q3!" sound great right before the election. It gives people optimism about the future, which is how Obama won in 2012 when the economy was digging its way out of of the GFC.

It may be too little, too late, as nereo wrote. There might not be enough enough undecideds to matter when the draft numbers are released in late October (though it wouldn't surprise me if Trump pushes the BEA to release a pre-draft report weeks earlier).

See, I would have said the converse; The GOP *lost* in no small part because of the economy, even though the economic rebound was well underway by the time anyone had cast their ballot. We are hardwired to remember pain more than pleasure, and this is especially true of recessions.

Re-reading what you wrote...I agree.

And, yeah, that will likely apply here too.
« Last Edit: May 27, 2020, 03:48:01 PM by bacchi »

talltexan

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #65 on: May 29, 2020, 05:38:12 AM »
Professional economist here.

There is no q3 growth number in GDP that is sufficiently high that it would make me think Trump would be better at growing the economy at this stage. It's not enough to consider the economic data, but also to consider the policy set and how that would translate to future growth.

Yeah but you're a professional economist. :)



Yes, it does affect me. Socially as well ;-)

I often wonder which economic data carry weight when people vote. They hear about the Dow every day, but the average person's wealth is--modally--equity in their own home. GDP sounds good, but you can have strong GDP growth that's only benefitting a few. The unemployment rate as reported in the news has all sorts of problems, including that it lags the rest of the economy. I suggest people pay attention to the ten-year treasury yield, which was fun last year when the curve inverted.

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #66 on: May 29, 2020, 02:13:59 PM »
Professional economist here.

There is no q3 growth number in GDP that is sufficiently high that it would make me think Trump would be better at growing the economy at this stage. It's not enough to consider the economic data, but also to consider the policy set and how that would translate to future growth.

Yeah but you're a professional economist. :)



Yes, it does affect me. Socially as well ;-)

I often wonder which economic data carry weight when people vote. They hear about the Dow every day, but the average person's wealth is--modally--equity in their own home. GDP sounds good, but you can have strong GDP growth that's only benefitting a few. The unemployment rate as reported in the news has all sorts of problems, including that it lags the rest of the economy. I suggest people pay attention to the ten-year treasury yield, which was fun last year when the curve inverted.

See, I think the economy impact stuff for most people is even more basic than what they stocks are doing and the like. That's just something thrown around by people who have already made up their mind imo. So I don't think it's growth in this quarter or that quarter. If the election had been held pre-Covid, the economy would have been a huge plus for Trump, regardless of the "meme perspective" of it's great for rich people and poor people are getting left behind. That's because there were a huge amount of jobs in a lot of places. Unemployment was so good that people would just not show up at a job because they felt like it, knowing there would be another one around the corner. Not all people were doing great, by any stretch, but people there being tons of jobs out there, I believe, gives people a gut feeling of security. Now, post-Covid, even if the "economy recovers" a little, I think how the economy impacts things depends on whether or not people have jobs that want them and/or know others that may not - thus making them feel uncertain about their jobs. The way I see it, regardless of what the numbers show or the news puts out on how things look in November, unless we see a huge employment swing, this is a big issue for Trump.

BicycleB

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #67 on: May 29, 2020, 07:29:52 PM »
^There's some common sense!!

Wrenchturner

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #68 on: May 29, 2020, 09:56:09 PM »
Joe Biden knows deep down in his heart that he is the only one that can beat Ronald Reagan this November.

(I can't take credit for this one, it's from a YouTube comment)

I voted for the black swan myself. 

DoubleDown

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #69 on: May 30, 2020, 12:10:14 PM »
I voted for the black swan myself.

Do you have anything in particular in mind?

BicycleB

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #70 on: May 30, 2020, 12:19:55 PM »
Joe Biden knows deep down in his heart that he is the only one that can beat Ronald Reagan this November.

(I can't take credit for this one, it's from a YouTube comment)


LOL

Wrenchturner

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #71 on: May 30, 2020, 12:24:49 PM »
I voted for the black swan myself.

Do you have anything in particular in mind?

Trump or Biden could have a health crisis or a serious blunder on the campaign trail.  The socio economic system has become unstable and that may continue.  I've also read theories of a Democratic bait and switch where they pull out Biden at the last minute.  Seems unlikely to me though. 

These are crazy times with strange forces at play.  Things could change suddenly!  I don't see any obvious replacements for Biden though, not that I follow it closely.  If everything stays roughly the same, I really can't bet on Biden or Trump.  I think Trump has lost friends, but he is incumbent and Biden is a pretty bad candidate, but he might be good enough for people that are unhappy with Trump.

Disappointment is likely to win in November!

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #72 on: May 30, 2020, 06:12:23 PM »
I don’t think a health problem or death is really a black swan event for either candidate in this election.  In fact it’s the exact opposite of a black-swan, with open speculation on both sides and Vegas odds on who might croak and when.

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #73 on: Today at 08:38:45 AM »
Does Biden even want the job anymore? The country/world is just such a mess, a pandemic that's likely to get worse in the US because of a botch federal response, a cold war with China, international relationships, alliances and institutions in ruins, incompetent and corrupt trump cronies running all levels of government that will have to be rooted out, massive social unrest, China and India gearing up for war, NK will probably start testing again missiles soon, the list just goes on and on. What 80 year old wants that?

Democrats seem to always have to spend the first term of their presidency cleaning up the catastrophes left by the GOP.

talltexan

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #74 on: Today at 09:28:39 AM »
Democrats don't even get a full term anymore.

in 1994, Republicans swept Congress to force Clinton to triangulate to the right. In 2010, the tea party rode anti-government energy to take over the House, and that effectively ended any chance at meaningful reform during the Obama Presidency.