Author Topic: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?  (Read 8938 times)

Bloop Bloop

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #100 on: June 03, 2020, 06:43:09 PM »
Taycan 4S was announced at $190k in Australia which is actually really reasonable (it converts to about $80k US due to currency, import duties, sales tax, luxury car tax, etc)

The same car costs $105k in the US.

Given how quickly EVs depreciate, a half-price Taycan 4S in a few years' time might get me tempted to switch over. I think the engineering in the Taycan will absolutely destroy anything Tesla can put into its Model S - I'm not talking about straight line speed in particular.

sherr

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #101 on: June 03, 2020, 11:06:55 PM »
I think the engineering in the Taycan will absolutely destroy anything Tesla can put into its Model S - I'm not talking about straight line speed in particular.

I would not bet on that if I were you. Tesla has been delivering the world's best EVs for years, Porsche is a newbie in the field. I may be biased since I own a Tesla and I think it's a decade ahead of other cars, but I would bet that Tesla delivers a Model S (or Roadster) that is better in most objective measures, and cheaper, before Porsche makes the Taycan available down under.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #102 on: June 03, 2020, 11:53:30 PM »
The Roadster will probably be the best electric vehicle on the planet. However, I will reserve judgment on that till we get proper reviews and an unveiling. It keeps being delayed.

The Taycan interior material, dynamic ability, build quality, durability (in terms of repeated launches and high speed sustained ability) are all better than the Model S, according to reviews. I am sure there are other non-performance oriented aspects in which the Tesla is better, like connectivity and autonomous tech/safety.

The Taycan 4S is available later this year so I will be sure to check it out.

neo von retorch

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #103 on: June 04, 2020, 03:43:53 AM »
Porsche has been making cars a bit longer than Tesla. Sure, they are newer to using electric motor, at least for the primary drive, and they're starting from a different place for the latest tech gadgets, but... They also proved themselves capable of engineering a reliable, consistent electric drive platform that maintains performance better than the Tesla on their first attempt.

I love Tesla (despite some misgivings) but I don't get the sometimes blind belief in their engineers over all the other engineers in the world. They do have advantages in the clean slate, always updated software product decisions, and they have other advantages like price and charging network. There's no reason to just assume the engineering is the absolute pinnacle.

sherr

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #104 on: June 04, 2020, 07:24:04 AM »
It's not a blind belief. It's a question of tried-and-true, vs pie-in-the-sky yet-to-be-released. The Model 3 is a significantly better engineered car than the Model S is, because it's like a decade newer. The 2020 Model S "Ravens" are a significant improvement over the original Model S's. Which are people using in comparisons? When will Tesla upgrade the Model S again?

I'm not assuming that Tesla engineers are all-powerful, I'm saying they actually have a long track record of delivering the best EVs in the world, and Porsche doesn't. Yet. Bring on the competition I say.
« Last Edit: June 04, 2020, 07:30:21 AM by sherr »

CowboyAndIndian

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #105 on: June 04, 2020, 08:46:53 AM »
I love how the conversation has shifted from

"If electric cars can finally become popular in the US"

To

"Is Tesla a better EV or is Porche Taycan better"

The first question seems to have been laid to rest, electric cars are here to stay.

Of course, I am a bit biased since I own a Tesla Model 3 ;-)

2sk22

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #106 on: June 04, 2020, 11:11:58 AM »
I was casually looking at used Tesla model 3s on Autotrader and I noticed the prices are still pretty high. Looks like these cars seem to hold value pretty well.

pecunia

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #107 on: June 04, 2020, 04:53:22 PM »
I love how the conversation has shifted from

"If electric cars can finally become popular in the US"

To

"Is Tesla a better EV or is Porche Taycan better"

The first question seems to have been laid to rest, electric cars are here to stay.

Of course, I am a bit biased since I own a Tesla Model 3 ;-)

Technology can change quickly.  Cars with internal combustion engines still have advantages.  If they could somehow make a fuel that did not emit greenhouse gases, it could be a game changer.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2019/10/08/carbon-engineering-taking-co2-right-out-of-the-air-to-make-gasoline/#4125924313cc


Bloop Bloop

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #108 on: June 04, 2020, 06:23:46 PM »
The only ICE advantages I can think of are -
1. Range
2. Sound
3. Dynamic ability
4. Weight

In terms of range, EVs are now creeping up to ICE cars and if you live near a large city you should not have much range anxiety.

In terms of sound, there are now very few naturally aspirated flat 6s, V8, V10 and V12 engines remaining so it's almost a non-issue. I would much rather hear the vacuum  cleaner sound of silent EV propulsion than a standard yucky turbocharged engine.

Dynamic ability EVs still trail behind badly, but Porsche's entry into the game will force higher-end manufacturers to pay some attention to this. I'm still not sure if EVs will ever be proper track cars but I guess that's a niche application.

I hate the heaviness of EVs but I am hoping battery tech catches up quickly.

pecunia

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #109 on: June 04, 2020, 09:59:55 PM »
Existing infrastructure favors internal combustion cars.  Gas stations abound with standard billing, convenience and standardized technology.  I doubt whether either charging or battery swaps can be done as quickly as a fill of one's gas tank.  Of course another significant advantage is overall operating cost.  The low cost of gasoline favors the purchase of an internal combustion car.  A lot of gasoline can be purchased with the price differential of an electric vs a conventional internal combustion car.

Another advantage that may strike you as odd is how to deal with the vehicle after 10 years.  An electric vehicle may need new batteries.  This is extremely expensive.  You can nurse an internal combustion engine car along for a long time as it falls apart and parts may be readily available.  Some of us have had to drive "beaters."

So - if a fuel were sold that did not contribute additional greenhouse gases, the existing fleet of internal combustion engines could take advantage of said fuel.  The many man years of experience in dealing with internal combustion engines could continue to be utilized in sales and repair.  The teething pains that are often seen with new products (electric cars) would not trouble the consumers who continued to buy cars with the bugs worked out.

sherr

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #110 on: June 05, 2020, 08:10:49 AM »
Existing infrastructure favors internal combustion cars.  Gas stations abound with standard billing, convenience and standardized technology.  I doubt whether either charging or battery swaps can be done as quickly as a fill of one's gas tank.  Of course another significant advantage is overall operating cost.  The low cost of gasoline favors the purchase of an internal combustion car.  A lot of gasoline can be purchased with the price differential of an electric vs a conventional internal combustion car.

Gas infrastructure matters far less than you'd imagine, because (assuming you don't live in an apartment) with electric vehicles you charge at home. How often would you have to go to a gas station if you woke up every morning with a full tank? I actually think it's more convenient to keep my Tesla fueled than it is my gasoline minivan.

Maybe it's different if you have a Leaf, but the only time the charging network matters is for long-range EVs is when you're on a road trip. And even then it's not as inconvenient as you'd imagine, especially with Tesla's vast and ever-growing supercharger network, because it's actually not that terrible to stop every once in a while. You want to stop for half an hour and eat lunch, and a few hours later take a 15-minute pee break / stretch your legs. With an EV you simply choose to schedule those stops at a charger.

The upfront cost I think is the only real downside to EVs right now. You're right, if the difference between an EV and an equivalent gas car is $10k then you can buy an awful lot of gas for that much money. But that difference gets smaller every year. And even with the higher upfront cost, you can already make the argument that a Tesla Model 3 has "about the same" total operating cost to a Civic over 5 years, depending on how much electricity/gas cost where you live. And that balance only tilts further in favor of the Model 3 if you look at 10 / 15 years.

Another advantage that may strike you as odd is how to deal with the vehicle after 10 years.  An electric vehicle may need new batteries.  This is extremely expensive.  You can nurse an internal combustion engine car along for a long time as it falls apart and parts may be readily available.  Some of us have had to drive "beaters."

This seems to be either a combination of an outdated fear, or outright fear-mongering by the old auto industry. The data that we have for Teslas in particular, and keep in mind that we're talking about old Teslas here, is that they may lose about 5-10% of their range in the first few years, but then don't really degrade more past that point. And that's with the old technology, Telsa has been constantly improving their batteries, and are working towards launching batteries that are certified for a million miles. And even if new batteries are going to be required because you need that last 10%, it does not follow that they'll be expensive in 10 years. As the electric car industry grows so too will economies of scale and technology improvements. Battery recycling will become a thing once there are actually some batteries that need to be recycled. Etc.

And if you remove the old/fake battery concerns, the rest of the point is just flat out untrue. Electric cars require far less maintenance than ICE vehicles, largely due to the fact that they have far fewer moving parts.

I think that once the cost comes down a little more, and it will, EVs will completely take over the auto industry. They are simply better cars.
« Last Edit: June 05, 2020, 08:34:17 AM by sherr »

nereo

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #111 on: June 05, 2020, 08:33:59 AM »
Existing infrastructure favors internal combustion cars.  Gas stations abound with standard billing, convenience and standardized technology.  I doubt whether either charging or battery swaps can be done as quickly as a fill of one's gas tank.  Of course another significant advantage is overall operating cost.  The low cost of gasoline favors the purchase of an internal combustion car.  A lot of gasoline can be purchased with the price differential of an electric vs a conventional internal combustion car.

Another advantage that may strike you as odd is how to deal with the vehicle after 10 years.  An electric vehicle may need new batteries.  This is extremely expensive.  You can nurse an internal combustion engine car along for a long time as it falls apart and parts may be readily available.  Some of us have had to drive "beaters."

So - if a fuel were sold that did not contribute additional greenhouse gases, the existing fleet of internal combustion engines could take advantage of said fuel.  The many man years of experience in dealing with internal combustion engines could continue to be utilized in sales and repair.  The teething pains that are often seen with new products (electric cars) would not trouble the consumers who continued to buy cars with the bugs worked out.

A few counterpoints:
  • Electrical infrastructure is far more extensive than petrol infrastructure.  EVs allow you to charge at home, at a friend's house, at a charging station, or really anywhere there's an outlet.  Fast charging (e.g. L2 chargers) are indeed in shorter supply,but can be built out anywhere and without any environmental precautions, unlike petrol stations.  Which is hwy my workplace has four L2 chargers
  • The cost of a new battery-pack must be considered, but it's far less than the components that need servicing in an ICE engine under similar timeframes (e.g. the water pump, transmission, exhaust system, serpentine and timing belts, oil changes, etc).  Overall maintenence on EVs are far lower than on ICE engines, and we've got a solid decade of data from these more modern cars
  • Contrary to popular opinion, EVs do not rely on "new" technology.  Electrical engines are as old as ICE engines, and are used in everything from large ships to home appliances. Even the latest generation of EVs (e.g. Tesla S, Leafs, etc) have been 'in the wild' for over a decade.  These aren't new prototypes or compete redesigns anymore.
Finidng a fuel that does not contribute to greenhouse gases would be great... but is at present a pipe dream.  Currently EVs contribute far less to greenhouse emissions provided the electricity you use for recharging is at least partially supplied by greener technologies.  Evern if you are in one of the worst areas, this can be mitigated by installing your own PV array.

[/list]

JLee

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #112 on: June 05, 2020, 08:41:05 AM »
    Existing infrastructure favors internal combustion cars.  Gas stations abound with standard billing, convenience and standardized technology.  I doubt whether either charging or battery swaps can be done as quickly as a fill of one's gas tank.  Of course another significant advantage is overall operating cost.  The low cost of gasoline favors the purchase of an internal combustion car.  A lot of gasoline can be purchased with the price differential of an electric vs a conventional internal combustion car.

    Another advantage that may strike you as odd is how to deal with the vehicle after 10 years.  An electric vehicle may need new batteries.  This is extremely expensive.  You can nurse an internal combustion engine car along for a long time as it falls apart and parts may be readily available.  Some of us have had to drive "beaters."

    So - if a fuel were sold that did not contribute additional greenhouse gases, the existing fleet of internal combustion engines could take advantage of said fuel.  The many man years of experience in dealing with internal combustion engines could continue to be utilized in sales and repair.  The teething pains that are often seen with new products (electric cars) would not trouble the consumers who continued to buy cars with the bugs worked out.

    A few counterpoints:
    • Electrical infrastructure is far more extensive than petrol infrastructure.  EVs allow you to charge at home, at a friend's house, at a charging station, or really anywhere there's an outlet.  Fast charging (e.g. L2 chargers) are indeed in shorter supply,but can be built out anywhere and without any environmental precautions, unlike petrol stations.  Which is hwy my workplace has four L2 chargers
    • The cost of a new battery-pack must be considered, but it's far less than the components that need servicing in an ICE engine under similar timeframes (e.g. the water pump, transmission, exhaust system, serpentine and timing belts, oil changes, etc).  Overall maintenence on EVs are far lower than on ICE engines, and we've got a solid decade of data from these more modern cars
    • Contrary to popular opinion, EVs do not rely on "new" technology.  Electrical engines are as old as ICE engines, and are used in everything from large ships to home appliances. Even the latest generation of EVs (e.g. Tesla S, Leafs, etc) have been 'in the wild' for over a decade.  These aren't new prototypes or compete redesigns anymore.
    Finidng a fuel that does not contribute to greenhouse gases would be great... but is at present a pipe dream.  Currently EVs contribute far less to greenhouse emissions provided the electricity you use for recharging is at least partially supplied by greener technologies.  Evern if you are in one of the worst areas, this can be mitigated by installing your own PV array.

    [/list]

    All of my friends with EVs have L2 charging at home - it's not hard or expensive unless your electrical panel is ancient (and then should likely be upgraded/replaced anyway). I am over 6 months into EV land and there's only been one trip where I needed fast charging (I sold my Bolt to a friend almost 300 miles away and delivered it).  That trip cemented the vast superiority of Tesla's network vs everyone else's DC fast charging...superchargers are massively better than anything else out there right now.

    Granted, I am not driving much these days, but my solar array made more power than my house and car combined consumed last month, with three people working from home. I call that a win :)

    beltim

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    Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
    « Reply #113 on: June 05, 2020, 08:52:23 AM »
    Existing infrastructure favors internal combustion cars.  Gas stations abound with standard billing, convenience and standardized technology.  I doubt whether either charging or battery swaps can be done as quickly as a fill of one's gas tank.  Of course another significant advantage is overall operating cost.  The low cost of gasoline favors the purchase of an internal combustion car.  A lot of gasoline can be purchased with the price differential of an electric vs a conventional internal combustion car.

    Another advantage that may strike you as odd is how to deal with the vehicle after 10 years.  An electric vehicle may need new batteries.  This is extremely expensive.  You can nurse an internal combustion engine car along for a long time as it falls apart and parts may be readily available.  Some of us have had to drive "beaters."

    So - if a fuel were sold that did not contribute additional greenhouse gases, the existing fleet of internal combustion engines could take advantage of said fuel.  The many man years of experience in dealing with internal combustion engines could continue to be utilized in sales and repair.  The teething pains that are often seen with new products (electric cars) would not trouble the consumers who continued to buy cars with the bugs worked out.

    A few counterpoints:
    • Electrical infrastructure is far more extensive than petrol infrastructure.  EVs allow you to charge at home, at a friend's house, at a charging station, or really anywhere there's an outlet.  Fast charging (e.g. L2 chargers) are indeed in shorter supply,but can be built out anywhere and without any environmental precautions, unlike petrol stations.  Which is hwy my workplace has four L2 chargers

    This is true, but not really very helpful.  Say you have a Tesla and drive somewhere for a weekend trip, 200-250 miles, and you leave on a Friday night.  The typical 110V charger will not have recharged the battery by the time you leave on Sunday afternoon.

    More broadly, and I bring this up whenever it comes to my attention on these threads, there are a significant number of people who just don't have access to electricity for their car.  I think about 30% of people live in apartments without garages.  And people who live in apartments with garages can't add electricity themselves - they have to get their landlord to do it.  And charging capacity is expanding, but most rapidly in the places that 1) already have good public transportation and low car ownership (NYC, SF), or have electricity costs that can make it more expensive to run an electric car than a gasoline car (Boston, some parts of Southern California).

    Electric cars will become exponentially more popular until they hit a wall, when they'll have to overcome charging infrastructure problems.  My guess is that'll be ~30% of the market.
    « Last Edit: June 05, 2020, 09:06:01 AM by beltim »

    sherr

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    Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
    « Reply #114 on: June 05, 2020, 09:05:34 AM »
    I am over 6 months into EV land and there's only been one trip where I needed fast charging (I sold my Bolt to a friend almost 300 miles away and delivered it).  That trip cemented the vast superiority of Tesla's network vs everyone else's DC fast charging...superchargers are massively better than anything else out there right now.

    Tesla's supercharger network is fantastic and massively better, I agree, it's the main reason I chose Tesla over anything else. But I'm curious to see what happens with the Electrify America chargers (part of VW's settlement for dieselgate). If they continue building out 350kW CCS chargers along interstates, and car manufacturers start making cars actually capable of charging at 350kW, then that is a massive game-changer.

    That would level the field in a big way. 350kW charging is fast enough to give you about 4-hours worth of highway driving in about half an hour. Which, as I said above, is not really a big deal, because you probably want to stop around that often anyway. Maybe the other guys will actually be able to compete with Tesla soon. :)

    sherr

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    Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
    « Reply #115 on: June 05, 2020, 09:20:49 AM »
    • Electrical infrastructure is far more extensive than petrol infrastructure.  EVs allow you to charge at home, at a friend's house, at a charging station, or really anywhere there's an outlet.  Fast charging (e.g. L2 chargers) are indeed in shorter supply,but can be built out anywhere and without any environmental precautions, unlike petrol stations.  Which is hwy my workplace has four L2 chargers

    This is true, but not really very helpful.  Say you have a Tesla and drive somewhere for a weekend trip, 200-250 miles, and you leave on a Friday night.  The typical 110V charger will not have recharged the battery by the time you leave on Sunday afternoon.

    Technically true, but I think misses the point. If you're talking about a hotel trip, there are already many hotels that offer L2 charging. So you simply choose to stay at one of those instead of a choosing at random, and you start the morning with a full battery.

    Oh, you're not staying at a hotel, we're visiting relatives? Fine, plug it in when you're not using it that weekend. No it won't be back up to 100% by Sunday afternoon, but it'll be up to maybe 75%. Quite possibly that's enough to get you home, or you stop at an L3 charger along the interstate on the way back for 15 minutes to make up the difference and read a few pages of your book or watch half an episode of the TV show you're currently watching on the car's screen (I know, Tesla owners are spoiled).

    The inconvenience of EV charging is massively overblown, and that'll only become more true as other manufacturers / charging networks start to catch up to Tesla. It requires a change in routine, yes, a change in how you plan trips, sure. But they aren't hard changes.

    More broadly, and I bring this up whenever it comes to my attention on these threads, there are a significant number of people who just don't have access to electricity for their car.  I think about 30% of people live in apartments without garages.  And people who live in apartments with garages can't add electricity themselves - they have to get their landlord to do it.

    Yes, here we absolutely agree. Apartment dwelling is a huge barrier to EV ownership, and that's not likely to change any time soon. What might make it bearable is if L2 chargers start to pop up at people's places of work.

    Electric cars will become exponentially more popular until they hit a wall, when they'll have to overcome charging infrastructure problems.  My guess is that'll be ~30% of the market.

    Eh, we shall see. I maybe see the barrier at 70%, and we're a long way from there. :)
    « Last Edit: June 05, 2020, 09:30:38 AM by sherr »

    nereo

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    Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
    « Reply #116 on: June 05, 2020, 09:27:23 AM »
    Existing infrastructure favors internal combustion cars.  Gas stations abound with standard billing, convenience and standardized technology.  I doubt whether either charging or battery swaps can be done as quickly as a fill of one's gas tank.  Of course another significant advantage is overall operating cost.  The low cost of gasoline favors the purchase of an internal combustion car.  A lot of gasoline can be purchased with the price differential of an electric vs a conventional internal combustion car.

    Another advantage that may strike you as odd is how to deal with the vehicle after 10 years.  An electric vehicle may need new batteries.  This is extremely expensive.  You can nurse an internal combustion engine car along for a long time as it falls apart and parts may be readily available.  Some of us have had to drive "beaters."

    So - if a fuel were sold that did not contribute additional greenhouse gases, the existing fleet of internal combustion engines could take advantage of said fuel.  The many man years of experience in dealing with internal combustion engines could continue to be utilized in sales and repair.  The teething pains that are often seen with new products (electric cars) would not trouble the consumers who continued to buy cars with the bugs worked out.

    A few counterpoints:
    • Electrical infrastructure is far more extensive than petrol infrastructure.  EVs allow you to charge at home, at a friend's house, at a charging station, or really anywhere there's an outlet.  Fast charging (e.g. L2 chargers) are indeed in shorter supply,but can be built out anywhere and without any environmental precautions, unlike petrol stations.  Which is hwy my workplace has four L2 chargers

    This is true, but not really very helpful.  Say you have a Tesla and drive somewhere for a weekend trip, 200-250 miles, and you leave on a Friday night.  The typical 110V charger will not have recharged the battery by the time you leave on Sunday afternoon.

    More broadly, and I bring this up whenever it comes to my attention on these threads, there are a significant number of people who just don't have access to electricity for their car.  I think about 30% of people live in apartments without garages.  And people who live in apartments with garages can't add electricity themselves - they have to get their landlord to do it.  And charging capacity is expanding, but most rapidly in the places that 1) already have good public transportation and low car ownership (NYC, SF), or have electricity costs that can make it more expensive to run an electric car than a gasoline car (Boston, some parts of Southern California).

    Electric cars will become exponentially more popular until they hit a wall, when they'll have to overcome charging infrastructure problems.  My guess is that'll be ~30% of the market.

    No arguments there - in fact that's the #1 reason why we didn't get an EV for eight years as we lived in an apartment with no convenient over-night charging (though there was a municipal lot a ~5min walk from our apartment...so not really an impossibility). 

    EVs are easier for some than others - particularly those with SFH and/or dedicated parking spaces.  I estimate the level is far greater than 30%, but whatever.. at present we're at ~2% nationwide, so sales could increase 10x before we ever approached those barriers.  Ultimately though, that barrier is an easily solvable problem, as installing new public chargers isn't terribly difficult.  Which is why places as diverse as shopping malls to McDonalds to hotels/motels now frequently offer charging stations.

    There is a few for whom long-distance charging remains a barrier, but data show this is a tiny fraction of the total, 1-2% of all drivers.  Range anxiety is real in a pschological sense, but not in reality (as in: the way people actually drive).  It's not much different from how people buy cars for situations they almost never encounter.

    ketchup

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    Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
    « Reply #117 on: June 05, 2020, 09:36:36 AM »
    • Electrical infrastructure is far more extensive than petrol infrastructure.  EVs allow you to charge at home, at a friend's house, at a charging station, or really anywhere there's an outlet.  Fast charging (e.g. L2 chargers) are indeed in shorter supply,but can be built out anywhere and without any environmental precautions, unlike petrol stations.  Which is hwy my workplace has four L2 chargers

    This is true, but not really very helpful.  Say you have a Tesla and drive somewhere for a weekend trip, 200-250 miles, and you leave on a Friday night.  The typical 110V charger will not have recharged the battery by the time you leave on Sunday afternoon.

    Technically true, but I think misses the point. If you're talking about a hotel trip, there are already many hotels that offer L2 charging. So you simply choose to stay at one of those instead of a choosing at random, and you start the morning with a full battery.

    Oh, you're not staying at a hotel, we're visiting relatives? Fine, plug it in when you're not using it that weekend. No it won't be back up to 100% by Sunday afternoon, but it'll be up to maybe 75%. Quite possibly that's enough to get you home, or you stop at an L3 charger along the interstate on the way back for 15 minutes to make up the difference.

    The inconvenience of EV charging is massively overblown, and that'll only become more true as other manufacturers / charging networks start to catch up to Tesla.
    I too see long trips as the main personal barrier for going all-EV.  We're a household of two people and two cars.  We could absolutely go EV with one of our cars with no issues.  Most of my driving is just commuting, derping around to the grocery store, etc.  I'd probably be able to charge 99% of the time at home, which would be far more convenient than stopping at the gas station every ~300 miles.

    But my GF's business means she travels a lot (at least in years that aren't 2020).  Sometimes that means driving 300 miles and staying in a hotel for two days before coming home.  The scenario you described solves that (assuming an EV with 300+ miles of range).  Often though, it means driving 200-300 miles one-way, sometimes at a place like a state park (unlikely to have a public charging station any time soon), spending maybe 2-3 hours there, and then turning around and driving the 200-300 miles home.  Last thing on her mind will be wanting to stop for an hour to charge.  She just wants to be home in time for dinner.  I don't see EVs with 500 miles of range popping up anytime soon (at least at anything close to a reasonable cost). 

    Something like a Volt would do the trick though, so maybe we could eventually go one EV, one PHEV.

    CowboyAndIndian

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    Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
    « Reply #118 on: June 05, 2020, 10:32:48 AM »
    I too see long trips as the main personal barrier for going all-EV.  We're a household of two people and two cars.  We could absolutely go EV with one of our cars with no issues.  Most of my driving is just commuting, derping around to the grocery store, etc.  I'd probably be able to charge 99% of the time at home, which would be far more convenient than stopping at the gas station every ~300 miles.

    But my GF's business means she travels a lot (at least in years that aren't 2020).  Sometimes that means driving 300 miles and staying in a hotel for two days before coming home.  The scenario you described solves that (assuming an EV with 300+ miles of range).  Often though, it means driving 200-300 miles one-way, sometimes at a place like a state park (unlikely to have a public charging station any time soon), spending maybe 2-3 hours there, and then turning around and driving the 200-300 miles home.  Last thing on her mind will be wanting to stop for an hour to charge.  She just wants to be home in time for dinner.  I don't see EVs with 500 miles of range popping up anytime soon (at least at anything close to a reasonable cost). 

    Something like a Volt would do the trick though, so maybe we could eventually go one EV, one PHEV.

    You have a lot of misconceptions about EV and charging. So, as someone who has owned a Tesla for about 15 months and who has driven about 15k miles on it, let me see if I can clear it up.

    My car has a 310-mile range when it is 100% charged. A little less in winter due to the heating of the car/battery. I usually keep the charge set to 250 miles at home and only increase to the max on trips.

    I have made several long-distance trips from Central NJ, multiple times to Massachusetts (Cape Cod, etc), Washington DC,  and to Rochester NY. Charging is never an issue and is not hour-long at any time. I stop at a supercharger when I want a break, which is every 3-4 hours. These superchargers are located in the parking lots where I have a choice of one or more restaurants. I plugin and after a quick pit-stop and minor refreshments, I am ready to leave. The charge is complete in 20 minutes or so (to 80%). The majority of charging stops, my car was recharged before I had completed my break. My wife still has range anxiety after so long, so I end up charging more than needed just to keep her happy.

    There are superchargers everywhere (except N. Dakota). Add a trip to https://www.tesla.com/trips and see how and where the charging is done.

    I do agree that the price was higher than a comparable car, but over a period of time, I expect to easily make up the difference. No oil changes, no 12k mile check-up, no transmission repairs, no brake repairs. Nothing. Only service items I  expect to spend money on are tires, windshield wiper fluid/blades, and the cabin air filter.  My per mile cost is about 1/3 or 1/4 what I would spend on gas. I refuel at home and I hate the idea of going to gas station and waiting for someone to fill up gas (I'm in NJ where self-serve is prohibited). Even worse in other states where I have to fill my own gas.

    But the part I love the most about this car is that I leave every other car in the dust when the lights turn green. I might have gotten old, but the lead-foot has not changed ;-)

    I have to add that my way may not be the only way with an EV. Check out @sol posts of buying a second hand Nissan Leaf and how he uses solar panels to charge it. Much cheaper than my car.
    « Last Edit: June 05, 2020, 10:40:33 AM by CowboyAndIndian »

    sherr

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    Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
    « Reply #119 on: June 05, 2020, 10:46:28 AM »
    no brake repairs.

    To expound on this point, EVs do have the same brake pads / fluids as gasoline cars. But you use them far less because you're mostly doing electric regenerative breaking. So one set of regular old break pads lasts... basically forever.

    neo von retorch

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    Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
    « Reply #120 on: June 05, 2020, 10:49:45 AM »
    As someone who started this thread, wants Tesla to continue to succeed, and wants electric cars to become popular and mainstream, I am still hesitant!

    At the top of my list - I want choice. I do not want to be stuck with Tesla, Tesla chargers and Tesla service. I also don't want to limit my choices for hotels, restaurants and camp sites to be limited either! I want multiple manufacturers who make options that can work for me, and I want competitive charging options.

    As someone who thinks about not only my situation, but others, I want friction to decrease. Right now, if I bought an electric car... I'd have to A) spring for an upgrade to my 100A service, B) kick my wife's car out of the one-car garage, C) make a new rule that we can't use the garage for "stuff" temporarily because I need to be able to charge. That's not too bad, but the up front costs are way above what I had to do to get into a used ICE car. And I'm in a cushy situation compared to many. (My last house didn't have a garage or external outlet, so I'd had have to pay for installing the outlet, and have to plug my car in outside regardless of weather. I'm sure it's "fine" but far from ideal.) In between houses, I lived in two different apartments with zero options for plugging in. (This goes back to choice... now you've got to limit options for where you live based on your car! Take a few hairs out of your mustache, it will.)

    Maintenance... my recent maintenance included cabin air filter, wipers, FOB battery, windshield wiper fluid... wait, these are things common to every car! And that's a big list. Yes, electric drivetrains are superior and almost certainly massively less expensive to maintain over the long haul, but it is limited to the drivetrain. But that's OK. It just seems to be used in a disingenuous way in a lot of arguments. (Because arguments tend to be black and white rather than fine-grained!)

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    Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
    « Reply #121 on: June 05, 2020, 10:55:38 AM »
    As someone who started this thread, wants Tesla to continue to succeed, and wants electric cars to become popular and mainstream, I am still hesitant!

    At the top of my list - I want choice. I do not want to be stuck with Tesla, Tesla chargers and Tesla service. I also don't want to limit my choices for hotels, restaurants and camp sites to be limited either! I want multiple manufacturers who make options that can work for me, and I want competitive charging options.

    As someone who thinks about not only my situation, but others, I want friction to decrease. Right now, if I bought an electric car... I'd have to A) spring for an upgrade to my 100A service, B) kick my wife's car out of the one-car garage, C) make a new rule that we can't use the garage for "stuff" temporarily because I need to be able to charge. That's not too bad, but the up front costs are way above what I had to do to get into a used ICE car. And I'm in a cushy situation compared to many. (My last house didn't have a garage or external outlet, so I'd had have to pay for installing the outlet, and have to plug my car in outside regardless of weather. I'm sure it's "fine" but far from ideal.) In between houses, I lived in two different apartments with zero options for plugging in. (This goes back to choice... now you've got to limit options for where you live based on your car! Take a few hairs out of your mustache, it will.)

    Maintenance... my recent maintenance included cabin air filter, wipers, FOB battery, windshield wiper fluid... wait, these are things common to every car! And that's a big list. Yes, electric drivetrains are superior and almost certainly massively less expensive to maintain over the long haul, but it is limited to the drivetrain. But that's OK. It just seems to be used in a disingenuous way in a lot of arguments. (Because arguments tend to be black and white rather than fine-grained!)

    The big ones are drivetrain and brakes, but there is no conventional water pump, fuel pump, oil pump, starter, alternator, belts, or any emissions gear at all (catalytic converters, evap systems, charcoal canisters, o2 sensors), etc.  There are still cooling systems with hoses and pumps, but the temperature variations are far less extreme than a gasoline engine so my suspicion is they will wear out far less quickly.

    Choice is coming; we're early yet.  Rivian has two more names, rumored to be a rallycross style car and a delivery van, and the major automakers are slowly trending towards more EVs (Kia has the Niro, Chevy has the Bolt, etc). We'll get there!

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    Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
    « Reply #122 on: June 05, 2020, 11:01:52 AM »

    As someone who thinks about not only my situation, but others, I want friction to decrease. Right now, if I bought an electric car... I'd have to A) spring for an upgrade to my 100A service, B) kick my wife's car out of the one-car garage, C) make a new rule that we can't use the garage for "stuff" temporarily because I need to be able to charge. That's not too bad, but the up front costs are way above what I had to do to get into a used ICE car.


    Just curious why you think the above must happen.  FWIW, when my parents got their EV they went 2+ years without installing a L2 charger, and they **still** rarely park it in the garage.  Unless you're doing frequent long-distant trips most drives can get away with just plugging it in each night with a plain-ol 110v extension cord.  Which means you can just park it in your driveay and run out a 25' extension cord (make sure it's 12g though).  Do that every day and you can drive ~50 miles every day and still start each trip with a full battery.

    You also don't need to put a fast-charger in your garage.  No idea what your house layout is, but you can install it outside (e.g. on the side of your home/garage) with a 10' (or longer) cord.

    it's quite possible this won't work for you and your circumstances, but it sounds like you've got some preconceived notions of what you need for an EV, which may not be true.

    AS for maintenence... yeah, you will still need cabin air filters and washer fluid and wipers, but the big repairs, the ones you budget for, are different.  Once a decade you'll have to spend a few grand to replace the battery pack, but you also don't have oil changes every ~5k or the other larger expenses associated with exhaust, drivetrain and power.  No belts, pulleys, muffler or oil system.  For whatever reason I have noticed that tires seem to be eaten up faster on EVs.... maybe the higher starting torque?

    ketchup

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    Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
    « Reply #123 on: June 05, 2020, 11:19:16 AM »
    I too see long trips as the main personal barrier for going all-EV.  We're a household of two people and two cars.  We could absolutely go EV with one of our cars with no issues.  Most of my driving is just commuting, derping around to the grocery store, etc.  I'd probably be able to charge 99% of the time at home, which would be far more convenient than stopping at the gas station every ~300 miles.

    But my GF's business means she travels a lot (at least in years that aren't 2020).  Sometimes that means driving 300 miles and staying in a hotel for two days before coming home.  The scenario you described solves that (assuming an EV with 300+ miles of range).  Often though, it means driving 200-300 miles one-way, sometimes at a place like a state park (unlikely to have a public charging station any time soon), spending maybe 2-3 hours there, and then turning around and driving the 200-300 miles home.  Last thing on her mind will be wanting to stop for an hour to charge.  She just wants to be home in time for dinner.  I don't see EVs with 500 miles of range popping up anytime soon (at least at anything close to a reasonable cost). 

    Something like a Volt would do the trick though, so maybe we could eventually go one EV, one PHEV.

    You have a lot of misconceptions about EV and charging. So, as someone who has owned a Tesla for about 15 months and who has driven about 15k miles on it, let me see if I can clear it up.

    My car has a 310-mile range when it is 100% charged. A little less in winter due to the heating of the car/battery. I usually keep the charge set to 250 miles at home and only increase to the max on trips.

    I have made several long-distance trips from Central NJ, multiple times to Massachusetts (Cape Cod, etc), Washington DC,  and to Rochester NY. Charging is never an issue and is not hour-long at any time. I stop at a supercharger when I want a break, which is every 3-4 hours. These superchargers are located in the parking lots where I have a choice of one or more restaurants. I plugin and after a quick pit-stop and minor refreshments, I am ready to leave. The charge is complete in 20 minutes or so (to 80%). The majority of charging stops, my car was recharged before I had completed my break. My wife still has range anxiety after so long, so I end up charging more than needed just to keep her happy.

    There are superchargers everywhere (except N. Dakota). Add a trip to https://www.tesla.com/trips and see how and where the charging is done.

    I do agree that the price was higher than a comparable car, but over a period of time, I expect to easily make up the difference. No oil changes, no 12k mile check-up, no transmission repairs, no brake repairs. Nothing. Only service items I  expect to spend money on are tires, windshield wiper fluid/blades, and the cabin air filter.  My per mile cost is about 1/3 or 1/4 what I would spend on gas. I refuel at home and I hate the idea of going to gas station and waiting for someone to fill up gas (I'm in NJ where self-serve is prohibited). Even worse in other states where I have to fill my own gas.

    But the part I love the most about this car is that I leave every other car in the dust when the lights turn green. I might have gotten old, but the lead-foot has not changed ;-)

    I have to add that my way may not be the only way with an EV. Check out @sol posts of buying a second hand Nissan Leaf and how he uses solar panels to charge it. Much cheaper than my car.
    Holy shit, I did not realize 80% in 20 minutes was the norm for superchargers.  My info was way out of date.  Playing with that trip calculator, it looks like a 310 mile range Tesla would get her just about anywhere she'd want to go (and back) with reasonable stops for charging (most common trip routes of hers I can plug in are half an hour or less).  255 mile range models gets kind of stupid though for her use - 70 min of charging during a 300 mile drive one-way.

    I'm not about to go buy a couple Teslas, but it sure is looking more practical if we were to go that route in the future.
    « Last Edit: June 05, 2020, 11:22:12 AM by ketchup »

    neo von retorch

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    Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
    « Reply #124 on: June 05, 2020, 11:19:40 AM »
    You also don't need to put a fast-charger in your garage.  No idea what your house layout is, but you can install it outside (e.g. on the side of your home/garage) with a 10' (or longer) cord.

    it's quite possible this won't work for you and your circumstances, but it sounds like you've got some preconceived notions of what you need for an EV, which may not be true.

    AS for maintenence... yeah, you will still need cabin air filters and washer fluid and wipers, but the big repairs, the ones you budget for, are different.  Once a decade you'll have to spend a few grand to replace the battery pack, but you also don't have oil changes every ~5k or the other larger expenses associated with exhaust, drivetrain and power.  No belts, pulleys, muffler or oil system.  For whatever reason I have noticed that tires seem to be eaten up faster on EVs.... maybe the higher starting torque?

    I'd say my "pre-conceived" notions are simply - it shouldn't be noticeably less convenient than owning an ICE car, and my parking spot is more than 25' from the garage. And I really don't want to plug in outside. I want the plugging in "stuff" to be indoors. Probably because I'm old-fashioned that way! (And the weather here often sucks, and it wreaks havoc on things you leave outside.)

    The maintenance stuff is also interesting because... I'm not one of those responsible folks that keeps a car for multiple decades. Or one decade. So the savings from maintenance would almost certainly not pay itself back for me. My $37 oil changes twice a year are really not hurting my budget that much. I haven't had to replace an exhaust component in a car since the early 2000s; same with transmission, engine, etc. I replaced an alternator in my wife's car for about $50 four years ago.

    It's not really about math, though, it's mostly about choice. When I can buy an EV from one of multiple vendors, charge from one of multiple networks, get service from a third party... without those things I'm giving up choice, I'm giving up DIY, etc. I'm not anti-Tesla, just pro-choice.

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    Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
    « Reply #125 on: June 05, 2020, 11:35:10 AM »
    You also don't need to put a fast-charger in your garage.  No idea what your house layout is, but you can install it outside (e.g. on the side of your home/garage) with a 10' (or longer) cord.

    it's quite possible this won't work for you and your circumstances, but it sounds like you've got some preconceived notions of what you need for an EV, which may not be true.

    AS for maintenence... yeah, you will still need cabin air filters and washer fluid and wipers, but the big repairs, the ones you budget for, are different.  Once a decade you'll have to spend a few grand to replace the battery pack, but you also don't have oil changes every ~5k or the other larger expenses associated with exhaust, drivetrain and power.  No belts, pulleys, muffler or oil system.  For whatever reason I have noticed that tires seem to be eaten up faster on EVs.... maybe the higher starting torque?

    I'd say my "pre-conceived" notions are simply - it shouldn't be noticeably less convenient than owning an ICE car, and my parking spot is more than 25' from the garage. And I really don't want to plug in outside. I want the plugging in "stuff" to be indoors. Probably because I'm old-fashioned that way! (And the weather here often sucks, and it wreaks havoc on things you leave outside.)

    The maintenance stuff is also interesting because... I'm not one of those responsible folks that keeps a car for multiple decades. Or one decade. So the savings from maintenance would almost certainly not pay itself back for me. My $37 oil changes twice a year are really not hurting my budget that much. I haven't had to replace an exhaust component in a car since the early 2000s; same with transmission, engine, etc. I replaced an alternator in my wife's car for about $50 four years ago.

    It's not really about math, though, it's mostly about choice. When I can buy an EV from one of multiple vendors, charge from one of multiple networks, get service from a third party... without those things I'm giving up choice, I'm giving up DIY, etc. I'm not anti-Tesla, just pro-choice.

    Ok, that's certainly a valid approach to have, but are you not recognizing there is also a loss of choice by owning an ICE vehicle?  It's not the same, but you have to refuel at a service station, where you can't walk away and where you wouldn't likely go except for the explicit purpose of adding fuel to your vehicle.  You lose the option of charging at home, or your destination, or where you are having lunch.

    So both seem to involve some loss of choice. Refueling an ICE at a petrol-station remains faster (per mile driven).  But you have to make that trip to a place you wouldn't otherwise go.  PVs take more time to recharge, but it's passive; you can do something completely different while it's happening.  Neither seem definitively better to me, only different. 

    Honestly, one of my dreams is to see the majority of petrol-stations disappear one day and be replaced with.... something else.  Honestly, when's the last time someone said "hey, they're building a new gas station on the corner... yay!"  There's a reason why most ordinances prevent them from being near most residential homes.

    AS for the charger being outdoors... ::shrug::  They do just fine here in snowy New England. I'm not sure why you'd park your car outside but not want to charge it there.  Maybe you can elaborate?

    CowboyAndIndian

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    Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
    « Reply #126 on: June 05, 2020, 11:37:47 AM »
    ...
    At the top of my list - I want choice. I do not want to be stuck with Tesla, Tesla chargers and Tesla service. I also don't want to limit my choices for hotels, restaurants and camp sites to be limited either! I want multiple manufacturers who make options that can work for me, and I want competitive charging options.
    ...

    I  agree with you.

    Multiple manufacturers are coming soon. I'm sure the Chinese EV's will hit soon as well as Lucid, Rivian and some of the conventional ICE manufacturers.

    The reason I picked Tesla, instead of Leaf was because of the supercharger network. When I bought my first iPhone (2008??), I bought it because of the rich number of apps available for it, which none of the other phones could provide. Now, Android has a similarly rich number of apps.  Third-party charging stations are available, but so far and few between that it is a pain to do a long-distance journey. I'm sure that in 5 or 10 years, there will be multiple choices to charge your car anyplace in the US or Europe. But 15 months ago, the only one was the Tesla supercharger network.

    Before buying an EV, I would suggest you put in a few long trips into https://abetterrouteplanner.com/  and use it to compare your options. I put in trips from Princeton, NJ to St. Petersburg, FL and there is still no comparison to a Tesla.


    sherr

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    Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
    « Reply #127 on: June 05, 2020, 11:41:20 AM »
    As someone who started this thread, wants Tesla to continue to succeed, and wants electric cars to become popular and mainstream, I am still hesitant!

    At the top of my list - I want choice. I do not want to be stuck with Tesla, Tesla chargers and Tesla service. I also don't want to limit my choices for hotels, restaurants and camp sites to be limited either! I want multiple manufacturers who make options that can work for me, and I want competitive charging options.

    I don't disagree. But I am not forced to use Tesla Service. Nor am I forced to use Tesla Chargers, my car came with a J1772 adapter for generic L2 chargers, and they already have a CCS adapter for Model S/X for generic L3 chargers (no supported on Model 3 yet for some reason, but I can't imagine it's that far off). There is choice available, I just choose to use the Tesla chargers because they're better and more convenient.

    Maintenance... my recent maintenance included cabin air filter, wipers, FOB battery, windshield wiper fluid... wait, these are things common to every car! And that's a big list. Yes, electric drivetrains are superior and almost certainly massively less expensive to maintain over the long haul, but it is limited to the drivetrain. But that's OK. It just seems to be used in a disingenuous way in a lot of arguments. (Because arguments tend to be black and white rather than fine-grained!)

    This I think is a non-issue. All those things you mention are universal to every car, making them irrelevant for a comparison. But they are all also $5 fixes that every Mustachian can and probably should do themselves. The hard repairs, the expensive repairs, the ones that actually require a mechanic, those are the interesting repairs and are basically nonexistent on an EV. The one exception that I'll point out in the issue of fairness is tires: EVs are generally heavier and will therefore tend to wear out tires faster.

    CowboyAndIndian

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    Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
    « Reply #128 on: June 05, 2020, 11:44:02 AM »
    ...
      For whatever reason I have noticed that tires seem to be eaten up faster on EVs.... maybe the higher starting torque?

    Yup. Guys like me get a thrill with the acceleration and we tend to get out of red lights like a bat out of hell. I know it is bad for the tires, but I am willing to pay for the thrill!
    « Last Edit: June 05, 2020, 11:47:06 AM by CowboyAndIndian »

    sherr

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    Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
    « Reply #129 on: June 05, 2020, 11:46:52 AM »
    And I really don't want to plug in outside. I want the plugging in "stuff" to be indoors. Probably because I'm old-fashioned that way! (And the weather here often sucks, and it wreaks havoc on things you leave outside.)

    AS for the charger being outdoors... ::shrug::  They do just fine here in snowy New England. I'm not sure why you'd park your car outside but not want to charge it there.  Maybe you can elaborate?

    For what it's worth, Tesla's guidance on charging outdoors is basically "Don't pressure-wash your car while it's plugged in. Also you might not want to if there's the risk of a lightning strike."

    neo von retorch

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    Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
    « Reply #130 on: June 05, 2020, 11:58:37 AM »
    If it helps, for the storm of people trying to change my mind... it's irrelevant! I own a car worth about $12k and I might sell it and go to a one-car household, assuming my ability to work remotely continues indefinitely. The spouse's car would serve some of the same purposes my car does - getting stuff from Home Depot / Lowes like 8' lumber, etc. This is also doable with a Prius and some of the Tesla varieties. But those same Tesla varieties are not $12k cars...

    Back to choice, beyond wanting lots of manufacturers to wake up and make competitive EVs, I want all the varieties of transportation to exist. Fun cars, fast cars, useful cars, budget cars, etc. Sporty budget hatchbacks are my jam... the closest EV to that is probably the Bolt, but it's hideous compared to a Model 3 or Mazda 3. I'm old enough that cars are not just a spreadsheet item; they are an emotional item. But I'm also a general contrarian and underdog fan. Tesla is an underdog compared to ICE, but for the aforementioned reasons, I wouldn't dare spend $35k+ on such an item. I also thank and respect the early adopters here for helping Tesla succeed and to help push others to compete in this space.

    But trying to "logic" me into converting to a Tesla person is a waste of time, like most internet arguments ;) This is why I want Ford (and others) to sit up and put out actual electric cars that "lots of people" will buy. Like lots of people. Like more 2% of the auto sales market.

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    Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
    « Reply #131 on: June 05, 2020, 11:59:09 AM »
    One advantage that EV's have that ICE cars do not have is getting emissions checked.

    Here in NJ, you have to go to the DMV once in a couple of years, spend an hour in the lane and get your emissions checked. My car does not have the sticker and I do not have to get one. I love this!

    sherr

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    Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
    « Reply #132 on: June 05, 2020, 12:02:40 PM »
    One advantage that EV's have that ICE cars do not have is getting emissions checked.

    Here in NJ, you have to go to the DMV once in a couple of years, spend an hour in the lane and get your emissions checked. My car does not have the sticker and I do not have to get one. I love this!

    In NC you still have to go, but they just check your lights and wipers and call it a day so it's faster and cheaper. Still annoying that you have to go at all.

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    Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
    « Reply #133 on: June 05, 2020, 12:04:32 PM »
    Maybe the price will come down.  Article says the Chinese are into the electric cars in a big way.  About 40 percent are preferring the electrics per the article.

    https://electrek.co/2020/04/13/car-boom-begins-in-china-with-a-wave-of-new-electric-cars-about-to-roll-out/

    After their market becomes saturated after a few years, they may dump their new production in the US to keep the folks working.  I've heard their adherence to market forces uses a little common sense to keep people working.  Better to take a small loss rather than have many unemployed.

    I can certainly understand their preference.  They wear masks all the time in some parts of China due to the bad air.


    sherr

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    Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
    « Reply #134 on: June 05, 2020, 12:06:39 PM »
    But trying to "logic" me into converting to a Tesla person is a waste of time, like most internet arguments ;) This is why I want Ford (and others) to sit up and put out actual electric cars that "lots of people" will buy. Like lots of people. Like more 2% of the auto sales market.

    For what it's worth, I don't care if you get a Tesla or not. :)

    I don't think anyone's trying to "argue you into it". For me personally it's just that a lot of the "reasons" given by posters are not actually valid, or at the very least are much less valid than they think they are, and I want people to have correct information with which they can make their decisions.

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    Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
    « Reply #135 on: June 05, 2020, 12:15:42 PM »
    If it helps, for the storm of people trying to change my mind... it's irrelevant! I own a car worth about $12k and I might sell it and go to a one-car household, assuming my ability to work remotely continues indefinitely. The spouse's car would serve some of the same purposes my car does - getting stuff from Home Depot / Lowes like 8' lumber, etc. This is also doable with a Prius and some of the Tesla varieties. But those same Tesla varieties are not $12k cars...

    Back to choice, beyond wanting lots of manufacturers to wake up and make competitive EVs, I want all the varieties of transportation to exist. Fun cars, fast cars, useful cars, budget cars, etc. Sporty budget hatchbacks are my jam... the closest EV to that is probably the Bolt, but it's hideous compared to a Model 3 or Mazda 3. I'm old enough that cars are not just a spreadsheet item; they are an emotional item. But I'm also a general contrarian and underdog fan. Tesla is an underdog compared to ICE, but for the aforementioned reasons, I wouldn't dare spend $35k+ on such an item. I also thank and respect the early adopters here for helping Tesla succeed and to help push others to compete in this space.

    But trying to "logic" me into converting to a Tesla person is a waste of time, like most internet arguments ;) This is why I want Ford (and others) to sit up and put out actual electric cars that "lots of people" will buy. Like lots of people. Like more 2% of the auto sales market.

    Iím not really trying to change your mind - I could care less whether you get one or not.  Iím just trying to understand it better.  Typically when tehreís a conversation about EVs, someone will tell me ďwell I canít get one because X, Y and Z,Ē to which Iíll respond ďwell X has never happened to me, great strides have been made to address Y and Z doesnít actually seem like a negative to meĒ.

    Mostly Iím just trying to understand (as your OP subject asks) ďwhy arenít EVs popular in the USĒ?  Because when I look at it objectively, it seems like there should easily be 10x the numbers that there currently are.

    Iíll give you that Iíve never placed much emphasis on the looks.  Seems bizarre to me, but given how many people chose a car based primarily on its color its important to many.  That said I kinda like the way the Bolt looks, and that one we are seriously considering (available with rebates/discounts now for ~$21k brand new!!).  How a car drives matters way more to me than its looks, and I **love** the low-end torque and quite ride. The other feature I adore is that itís almost instantly warm in the winter - useful since we get days down to -20ļF here. Ironically ICE cars typically get marketed with their top-speed and max hp, two things an everyday driver will almost NEVER utilize.

    I want more manufacturers to put out EVs too, and the more there are the less this (rather silly) concern of insufficient charging infrastructure will go away. But I donít believe that a lack of manufacturers explains why just 2% of cars are EVs.  Honestly I think it comes back to people *thinking* that charging infrastructure is far worse than it is (they are remembering articles written circa 2012), and that get range anxiety even though models routinely exceed 250 miles and can get an 80% charge in 15 minutes. Or they assume all EVs carry the price tag of the Tesla model S and model X.

    sherr

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    Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
    « Reply #136 on: June 05, 2020, 12:45:11 PM »
    I want more manufacturers to put out EVs too, and the more there are the less this (rather silly) concern of insufficient charging infrastructure will go away. But I donít believe that a lack of manufacturers explains why just 2% of cars are EVs.  Honestly I think it comes back to people *thinking* that charging infrastructure is far worse than it is (they are remembering articles written circa 2012), and that get range anxiety even though models routinely exceed 250 miles and can get an 80% charge in 15 minutes. Or they assume all EVs carry the price tag of the Tesla model S and model X.

    I think also the problem is that EV charging is a "paradigm shift" from gas fueling. It's fundamentally different. People hear "hour to hour-and-a-half to go from 0-100% at a supercharger" and think "wow that's terribly inconvenient!" When really, no it's not, because that's not how your charging pattern actually works. First because the last 20% slows down a lot and literally takes half the time (so you just don't do it if you're waiting), but also because sitting around and waiting for a charge is extremely unusual. But the pattern of gas fueling is so ingrained in their head that they don't get that until someone sits them down and explains it, or they see it first hand with a friend.

    The second problem I think is just manufacturing output. Tesla has always been supply-constrained, they sell their cars as fast as they can make them. Others are low-volume production compliance cars. The Leaf didn't have enough range to appeal to most people. The Bolt probably should be doing better, but that brings us to problem three.

    The dealership model. Dealers don't have any experience or really any incentive to sell EVs. In fact they have a disincentive, because dealers make a huge portion of their money through maintenance which will see a huge cut with EVs. This is exactly why Tesla is extremely adamant about being direct-sale, even fighting legal battles in states where it's illegal. Because they know that EVs are different enough that the sales people would have to be able to intelligently answer valid questions (like the ones we see in this thread), and that the dealership model would have to radically change in order for dealers to have to care enough to put in the effort.

    All this is changing. I don't know how non-Tesla manufacturers are going work around the dealership problem, but I'm sure they're working on it. EVs are the future and their time is here. We're going to see massive changes in the next 5 years. And all the other manufacturers know it, and are scrambling to keep up.
    « Last Edit: June 05, 2020, 12:56:27 PM by sherr »

    neo von retorch

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    Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
    « Reply #137 on: June 05, 2020, 12:53:31 PM »
    I think we (the collective thread contributors) agree on a lot of things.

    And I mostly speak from personal perspective and what I think others that kinda agree with me think.

    For example, my friend got a $60k Model 3. I hate the interior. I mean, sure I'd probably get used to it and it doesn't matter. But that kind of minimalism isn't my style. And that's fine, but it's not at all hard for me to picture anyone going to buy a Model 3 and getting in and just thinking - this isn't for me. This isn't a problem Tesla should solve. This is a problem GM, Ford, Toyota, Honda, etc. should solve. They know how to make a wide variety of cars to suite these irrationally diverse tastes. (I say this almost ironically, because I look around and most cars seem to look the same; they are almost certainly white or gray/silver or maybe black. On rare occasions they are red or blue or some other color.)

    Beyond that, I mean - most people I know have never in their lives spent $30k+ for a car. I mean there's a huge range. I've worked for bosses that have spent $60k+ and the occasional co-worker splurging. But most friends, neighbors and family I know buy much less expensive cars. I know there's this industry average, and it's relevant. But there's psychology there, too. An Accord might "start" at $25k but most people that buy a new Accord buy a $30k one or maybe even a $35k one. And there's also options to get $40k ones! Well-known marketing trick. Have base options, fancy options, and the option you want everyone to actually buy. The problem with the initial Bolt EV and Model 3 pricing is that no one wants the supposed $35k Model 3. There's just some customization I want to make and suddenly it's a $50k car and now I'd want to buy it but $@*# on a stick, that's not my budget for a car.

    At the same time, I argued in this own thread... people will and do buy mainstream SUVs for $35k. So if a middle of the pack electric SUV with 250 mile range and a few upgrades over base (because people love comparing themselves to those poor souls buying a base model) is $35k out the door, suddenly you're in business.

    Ultimately it's not "you" that you have to convince, because you already don't care about appearance or color or the mindset shift of charging at home vs a quick fill-up, etc. It's "them" and logic is generally not enough. It's the car feeling personal and being the special version you haven't seen 5 of your co-workers buy or who knows what? I mean I know people that buy white base model Corollas and they are happy, and they'd happily buy a 250 mile boring white sedan that was an EV if it also cost $20k. Tesla answers "some" of the broad variety of cars, as does Leaf, and Bolt... (though Leaf and Bolt are quirkier animals - I don't think I'd hate owning a Bolt, but it's still not nearly as nice looking as my Mazda 3, and yes I'm one of those people that care about car appearance, even if it's stupid and cannot be explained with logic!)

    DavidAnnArbor

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    Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
    « Reply #138 on: June 05, 2020, 05:21:48 PM »
    That said I kinda like the way the Bolt looks, and that one we are seriously considering (available with rebates/discounts now for ~$21k brand new!!). 

    Wow that's a steal price. I got my Bolt back in Dec. 2017

    Today someone said to me that the production of electric cars is much worse for the environment than a regular ICE car, because of the batteries.

    I guess he meant specifically the mining of lithium but I don't know to what he was referring.

    The emissions from regular ICE vehicles I think is far worse, and I read that they cause all kinds of health problems and ultimately deaths.

    sherr

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    Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
    « Reply #139 on: June 05, 2020, 06:14:56 PM »
    Today someone said to me that the production of electric cars is much worse for the environment than a regular ICE car, because of the batteries.

    I guess he meant specifically the mining of lithium but I don't know to what he was referring.

    The emissions from regular ICE vehicles I think is far worse, and I read that they cause all kinds of health problems and ultimately deaths.

    Here is one example, I'm sure there are others. There are many attempts to "find" that EVs are bad for the environment, in exactly the same way as there are many attempts to "find" that global warming is not real. They all use blatantly dishonest reasoning, like comparing the total "cradle-to-grave" (including mining / manufacturing / transportation) emissions of EVs to only the tailpipe emissions of a gasoline car. But people fall for them, same as they do the global warming stuff.
    « Last Edit: June 05, 2020, 06:25:42 PM by sherr »

    DavidAnnArbor

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    Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
    « Reply #140 on: June 05, 2020, 06:30:52 PM »
    thanks for that reference article

    Bloop Bloop

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    Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
    « Reply #141 on: June 05, 2020, 07:26:19 PM »
    I think we (the collective thread contributors) agree on a lot of things.

    And I mostly speak from personal perspective and what I think others that kinda agree with me think.

    For example, my friend got a $60k Model 3. I hate the interior. I mean, sure I'd probably get used to it and it doesn't matter. But that kind of minimalism isn't my style. And that's fine, but it's not at all hard for me to picture anyone going to buy a Model 3 and getting in and just thinking - this isn't for me. This isn't a problem Tesla should solve. This is a problem GM, Ford, Toyota, Honda, etc. should solve. They know how to make a wide variety of cars to suite these irrationally diverse tastes. (I say this almost ironically, because I look around and most cars seem to look the same; they are almost certainly white or gray/silver or maybe black. On rare occasions they are red or blue or some other color.)

    I think Tesla interiors are poor, particularly given the price point. I hate the huge screen. It doesn't look aesthetically pleasing to me. I'm not a fan of the materials choices. I much prefer a bit more analogue in my car cabins. The switchgear doesn't feel as solid and heavy as I'd like. If I'm spending that much on a car I want a low-end Porsche-level interior, at least.

    I also hope that Tesla engineers get the battery weights down quickly, so that the new generation of EVs can be reasonable weight (< 3000 pounds). That would be better for spirited driving and would mean less stress on tyres, brakes, etc. Right now all the EVs I see are behemoths.

    When/if they get the weight and interior sorted, I'd be willing to look at Tesla. I'm really looking forward to the Roadster unveiling too.

    Chris22

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    Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
    « Reply #142 on: June 06, 2020, 07:36:45 AM »
    Iím a huge fan of Teslaís, and I wish I could make the math work in buying one, but right now I think they are like the $10k flat screen TVs of 20 years ago; we all know itís the future, but we also all know theyíll be a lot cheaper and competitive in the future, I am not willing to buy today for $50k what will be available for $20k in 10 years (nor am I willing to buy one of those hideous Bolts or Leafs).

    Having spent a long weekend with a Tesla Model X (my wife won a weekend with one in a charity auction a couple years ago) the two things people tend to not realize/ignore/gloss over are:

    1.  How much the cold really impacts your range (I had it in winter in Chicago when it was like 10* out, range took a HUGE hit.

    2.  How crowded the super chargers can be.  Itís one thing to say ďoh it only takes 20 minĒ but if there are 2 cars ahead of you now itís an hour. Filling with gas takes 2-3 min so if there are two cars ahead of you it now takes 10, thatís a huge difference. And people are more likely to wander off for 20 min charging than 2 min getting gas so you may be waiting even longer (I know the app discourages this but still).  And currently there arenít enough super chargers in most places to where you can just go across the street to a different one if this one is too crowded.

    I expect these problems will be solved and Iíll own an EV in the next 10 years, but for right now itís too bleeding edge for me and a lot of other Americans.

    MasterStache

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    Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
    « Reply #143 on: June 06, 2020, 07:45:44 AM »
    All this talk about Teslas and I am still loving my 2014 Leaf, which I got dirt cheap 22 months ago. Not a single issue with the car.  Still has 11 battery bars, which hasn't changed since I got it. I recently charged it to 100% and it still shows 83 miles on a full charge.

     
    « Last Edit: June 06, 2020, 10:48:45 AM by MasterStache »

    nereo

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    Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
    « Reply #144 on: June 06, 2020, 07:59:05 AM »
    Iím a huge fan of Teslaís, and I wish I could make the math work in buying one, but right now I think they are like the $10k flat screen TVs of 20 years ago; we all know itís the future, but we also all know theyíll be a lot cheaper and competitive in the future, I am not willing to buy today for $50k what will be available for $20k in 10 years (nor am I willing to buy one of those hideous Bolts or Leafs).

    Having spent a long weekend with a Tesla Model X (my wife won a weekend with one in a charity auction a couple years ago) the two things people tend to not realize/ignore/gloss over are:

    1.  How much the cold really impacts your range (I had it in winter in Chicago when it was like 10* out, range took a HUGE hit.

    2.  How crowded the super chargers can be.  Itís one thing to say ďoh it only takes 20 minĒ but if there are 2 cars ahead of you now itís an hour. Filling with gas takes 2-3 min so if there are two cars ahead of you it now takes 10, thatís a huge difference. And people are more likely to wander off for 20 min charging than 2 min getting gas so you may be waiting even longer (I know the app discourages this but still).  And currently there arenít enough super chargers in most places to where you can just go across the street to a different one if this one is too crowded.

    I expect these problems will be solved and Iíll own an EV in the next 10 years, but for right now itís too bleeding edge for me and a lot of other Americans.

    Iím surprised to hear that the superchargers are crowded near you. There are three stations near us and each has multiple chargers - Iíve yet to encounter a time when they were all full, and typically at least half are available. Then again Iím also baffled at how one can fill an ice gas tank in 2 minutes.

    Yes, cold does have an impact, particularly if you like to crank the heat as I do. Total range might drop as much as a third on sub zero days

    CowboyAndIndian

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    Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
    « Reply #145 on: June 06, 2020, 08:02:26 AM »
    Iím a huge fan of Teslaís, and I wish I could make the math work in buying one, but right now I think they are like the $10k flat screen TVs of 20 years ago; we all know itís the future, but we also all know theyíll be a lot cheaper and competitive in the future, I am not willing to buy today for $50k what will be available for $20k in 10 years (nor am I willing to buy one of those hideous Bolts or Leafs).
    Yes, it is going to drop in price as the batteries drop. I expect in 5 years, the Model 3 and equivalent cars from others would be about the price of a Camry or Accord.

    Quote
    Having spent a long weekend with a Tesla Model X (my wife won a weekend with one in a charity auction a couple years ago) the two things people tend to not realize/ignore/gloss over are:

    1.  How much the cold really impacts your range (I had it in winter in Chicago when it was like 10* out, range took a HUGE hit.

    Yes, range is degraded in the cold. But it is not 50%, but more like 10%. Battery and cabin heating is expensive. The next generation (Model Y) has a heat pump instead of a electric resistive heating and it is much more efficient. I expect the degradation to cold to drop

    Quote
    2.  How crowded the super chargers can be.  Itís one thing to say ďoh it only takes 20 minĒ but if there are 2 cars ahead of you now itís an hour. Filling with gas takes 2-3 min so if there are two cars ahead of you it now takes 10, thatís a huge difference. And people are more likely to wander off for 20 min charging than 2 min getting gas so you may be waiting even longer (I know the app discourages this but still).  And currently there arenít enough super chargers in most places to where you can just go across the street to a different one if this one is too crowded.

    In my 15 months, I have never waited for a supercharger. I have made about 10-12 long-distance trips.
    I do not charge at superchargers on a day to day basis. I only charge at superchargers on a long-distance journey.

    Chris22

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    Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
    « Reply #146 on: June 06, 2020, 09:09:13 AM »
    I went back to my notes when I had the Model X:

    Quote
    The range anxiety was strong, not going to lie. It was cold, and this was the lowest model from a battery perspective (75D). At one point, I supercharged it to 90% (not sure why it stopped there, but it went from ~18% to 90% in ~1 hour, and then told me it was done when I hit 90%). I drove 4.7m to my house, very sedately (using autopilot) and it chewed up ~6% of the range (I arrived home at 84%). That's...unimpressive. And charging on 120v, that just sucked; added about 14% both nights in about 10-12 hours. I think it would be twice as fast on 240v, but still, not great. And around here, EVs are not unpopular, so public chargers can fill up fast. There were about 8 Teslas at the supercharger I went to, and I mentioned earlier the EV chargers in front of my office were both taken this morning. It's one thing to say, hey, we'll drive 2 hours and then supercharge while we eat and then drive 2 more, but if you get there and have to wait an hour for a charger AND THEN charge, that's not great. I could see it getting to be that way soon. I wasn't too scientific about tracking my usage, but I can tell you I ran it down from 84% to 24%, charged it up to 38%, ran it down to 18%, supercharged to 90%, then ran it down to 22%, charged it to 36%, and then it was back to about 24% when I drove it to work this AM. That was while putting ~200 miles on it. In theory, the range is ~237 miles on it, so that should have been 1 charge. Clearly that wasn't the case for me.

    Since I wrote that I have finished the 220V outlet in my garage so at home charging would be a lot faster.  One thing though, a lot of time I road trip is holiday weekends, when everyone else also road trips, so congestion at Super Chargers would be expected.

    Chris22

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    Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
    « Reply #147 on: June 06, 2020, 11:04:08 AM »
    Iím a huge fan of Teslaís, and I wish I could make the math work in buying one, but right now I think they are like the $10k flat screen TVs of 20 years ago; we all know itís the future, but we also all know theyíll be a lot cheaper and competitive in the future, I am not willing to buy today for $50k what will be available for $20k in 10 years (nor am I willing to buy one of those hideous Bolts or Leafs).

    Having spent a long weekend with a Tesla Model X (my wife won a weekend with one in a charity auction a couple years ago) the two things people tend to not realize/ignore/gloss over are:

    1.  How much the cold really impacts your range (I had it in winter in Chicago when it was like 10* out, range took a HUGE hit.

    2.  How crowded the super chargers can be.  Itís one thing to say ďoh it only takes 20 minĒ but if there are 2 cars ahead of you now itís an hour. Filling with gas takes 2-3 min so if there are two cars ahead of you it now takes 10, thatís a huge difference. And people are more likely to wander off for 20 min charging than 2 min getting gas so you may be waiting even longer (I know the app discourages this but still).  And currently there arenít enough super chargers in most places to where you can just go across the street to a different one if this one is too crowded.

    I expect these problems will be solved and Iíll own an EV in the next 10 years, but for right now itís too bleeding edge for me and a lot of other Americans.

    Iím surprised to hear that the superchargers are crowded near you. There are three stations near us and each has multiple chargers - Iíve yet to encounter a time when they were all full, and typically at least half are available. Then again Iím also baffled at how one can fill an ice gas tank in 2 minutes.

    Yes, cold does have an impact, particularly if you like to crank the heat as I do. Total range might drop as much as a third on sub zero days

    Two minutes might be an exaggeration but itís under 5. I usually put 10-15 gal of gas in my car per fill, figure itís a minute to swipe card and input info, remove gas cap while pump processes, and then according to google/wiki the flow rate is ~10gal/min:

    Quote
    Light passenger vehicle pump flow rate ranges up to about 50 litres (13 US gallons) per minute (the United States limits this to 10 US gallons (38 litres) per minute); pumps serving trucks and other large vehicles have a higher flow rate, up to 130 litres (34 US gallons) per minute in the UK, and airline refueling can ...

    So maybe itís 3-4 min. I dunno. Point stands.

    pecunia

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    Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
    « Reply #148 on: June 06, 2020, 06:05:13 PM »
    Can they finally become popular in the United States?

    Looks like GM is ramping up to build more electric cars.

    https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/general-motors/2020/01/14/gm-picks-lordstown-site-for-battery-plant/4468957002/

    The following article says they are going after Tesla customers.  Yet the proposed products seem different than what I've known Tesla to produce.

    The article says the beancounters that run GM are putting big money behind this venture.  Can Tesla expect a lot more competition in the next few years?  The article says the GM cars may have a range of 400 miles.

    https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/general-motors-chevy-buick-gmc-hummer-cadillac-electric-vehicles/

    With a few exceptions, GM has never struck me as an innovative company.  Anybody willing to offer an opinion?

    Kyle Schuant

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    Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
    « Reply #149 on: June 06, 2020, 07:23:32 PM »
    I find this gets me around pretty well.