US Poll....who are you voting for?

[jrhampt]

I really like Biden and I'll be proud to vote for him again. He's had a lifetime to figure out how to get things done and he doesn't have the strong ego that some others do that requires constant praise and recognition. I think he's criminally underrated and will be remembered as one of the most positively impactful Presidents of the post war era.
Yes, he walks and talks like the old man he is. With age sometimes comes wisdom. Not in all cases, as we see with the New Republican party candidate.

Same.

It's not about liking. It's about the odds. Just like Ginsburg (who I liked), she did a terrible thing by not resigning when Obama had the Presidency and the Senate was Democratic. These old people need to pack it in before events do it for them and the rest of us suffer the consequences.

Ginsburg is a great example - awesome and competent supreme court justice, who stayed in her position too long . . . resulting in an extremist like Barrett replacing her.

When a majority of Americans believe that Biden is too old to be president (right or wrong), then he is is hurting the chances of Democrats winning the next presidency.

Whether you like him or not, does anyone feel he would be the most likely person to defeat Trump given his age, ability, and the narrative around him? I honestly don't know, but when I look at them both together, I can't help but asking, is this the best America can do?

I do think he's the best shot at beating Trump.  There was a large field of candidates in 2020, and Biden beat them all out.  Now he has the incumbent advantage against a criminal who is almost just as old.  So, yeah.  I don't see a better candidate.

[Samuel]

While his age and fitness are certainly legitimate discussions to be having now in the context of winning the election we need to also remember the winner of the next election will presumably still be president 4 years and 11 months from now. And a helluva lot is going to happen in that time frame. With Biden's trajectory being what it is I can't say that comforts me when I consider the increasingly complex geopolitical, economic, and technosocial challenges we're facing. Even if he's doing great for an 82 year old we should all be skeptical about the ability of any octogenarian to fully engage with the nuances of the current moment.

Biden was born closer to the Civil War than he was to the present day, and Trump will hit that milestone in August 2027. Can they even remotely fathom how the issue of AI alone will shape the next decade?

Of course these two are not the best America can do to lead us into an uncertain future. But apparently they're the best our system can manage.

No president is really going to be an expert on the impacts of AI, instead they will have appoint competent people to figure that out. Biden will do that, Trump will not. I doubt Trump could even spell AI. It's not hard to see who is better aligned to lead the country going forward given most of the leadership falls on appointing competent people in the EO.

No argument from me there. I voted for Biden twice (counting the primary which is the only vote that actually mattered in my blue state) and will again.

I just don't think any octogenarian is truly up to the job and lament the state of the organizations and processes that present us with this shitty choice.

[bacchi]

Wasn't Reagan the first? He had dementia in his later years in office.

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Trump was fined $355M for fraud in NY state. From what I can tell, if he wants to appeal and get a stay, he'll have to put up a bond. He may not have that kind of scratch.

[GuitarStv]

Wasn't Reagan the first? He had dementia in his later years in office.

Yep.  By all accounts he was right out of it by the end.  Coincidentally he was also the oldest president in office prior to Trump and Biden.

[RetiredAt63]

Wasn't Reagan the first? He had dementia in his later years in office.

Yep.  By all accounts he was right out of it by the end.  Coincidentally he was also the oldest president in office prior to Trump and Biden.

It all depends.  My Dad was sharp into his 90s.

[GuitarStv]

Wasn't Reagan the first? He had dementia in his later years in office.

Yep.  By all accounts he was right out of it by the end.  Coincidentally he was also the oldest president in office prior to Trump and Biden.

It all depends.  My Dad was sharp into his 90s.

Can certainly happen, but 'sharp' doesn't exactly describe Biden or Trump right now though.

[sixwings]

Wasn't Reagan the first? He had dementia in his later years in office.

Yep.  By all accounts he was right out of it by the end.  Coincidentally he was also the oldest president in office prior to Trump and Biden.

It all depends.  My Dad was sharp into his 90s.

Can certainly happen, but 'sharp' doesn't exactly describe Biden or Trump right now though.

I dunno, Biden isn't that bad, he's not a good public speaker but he's never been particularly good at it. When you watch interviews with him he's still very thoughtful and reasonably articulate/sharp. Like this interiview (a year ago), he's pretty knowledgeable and articulate:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YpzMfAKN9aQ

He's more articulate in that than Trump has been in any interview since 2016. He's better at talking for 30 mins straight than any other 82 year I've ever heard (low bar obv). I'm optimistic that in a debate Biden will do reasonably well. Although I think there won't be any debates, neither candidate will want that as both campaigns know their guys can't handle it.

Trump is completely incoherent and has been for a very long time, whether it's rallies or 1:1 interviews, it's the same incomprensible word salads. He's just held to a very different standard, it's totally fine to not understand a word he says as long as you get the "jist" of what he's saying, but with Biden he has to be articulate like Obama or he's got dementia.

Biden does have an old man look though, like he squints his eyes like he thinks he has the clint eastwood thing going on and he just doesn't, he just looks old and confused which doesn't help.

[maizefolk]

Although I think there won't be any debates, neither candidate will want that as both campaigns know their guys can't handle it.

I think you are probably right, but imagine this unlikely but possible scenario.

The qualifying threshold for participating in general election presidential debates is 15% support in the polls. Kennedy seems to be polling at 7-10% right now. If he gets across that threshold and is mostly pulling support from Biden, Trump might decide to debate Kennedy, even if Biden boycotts the debate, to try to raise Kennedy's profile more and further split the vote that would otherwise support Biden.

Something similar did happen all the way back in 1980, when Reagan participated in a general election debate with a third party candidate named John Anderson polling in the 10-20% range even though Carter, the incumbent president boycotted the debate.

[NorCal]

Here's a slight tangent I've been thinking about.  All the indictments and criminal charges only seem to make Trump more popular with his base.  This is well known.

Does anyone think this will change when he starts really losing cases?  I feel like part of his cult of personality is based on everyone attacking him and nothing ever happening.  Will this actually change once he starts having consequences for his actions?

He has the Carrol settlement due soon.  And the ~$400M ruling today will need to be paid well before the election.  This is some real consequences.

I spent some time reading the ruling and I have a background in financial reporting.  It's really impossible to know his exact financial situation.  But I strongly suspect his business will have some level of cascading failure.  I just don't know if it will happen fast or slow.  His assets are cross-collateralized, his tax-basis is negligible in a lot of properties, things are over-leveraged, and the office real estate market sucks right now.  He also has unlimited personal guarantees on his commercial real-estate loans, and is barred from taking out new debt from firms that do business in New York.  He's going to have to sell something fast, which will quickly put him in a technical default on his personal guarantees.  Lenders will want to find a way to work it out rather than put him in default, but that will only get him so far. 

Will this type of loss have some voters think about who they're voting for?  Or will it just be a complete non-event?

Beyond this, he'll be sitting in a criminal trial starting late next month.  Does a loss there impact his popularity?

I believe his popularity remains for the simple reason that his voters believe he's being wrongly prosecuted and a jury will let him off.  I want to believe that court losses will put a dent in that, but maybe it's just wishful thinking. 

[sixwings]

Won't matter with the republican base, most of them have made their entire personalities and lives revolve around being trump supporters, basically at this point conservatives these days are just bad people and nothing will stop them from a voting for a rapist who defamed his victim, who is barred from operating a business in NY, or sitting on the board of a charity, isnt even allowed to operate a casino in Nevado, who scammed people with his university, and is facing criminal charges for payments he made to a porn star he had sex with while his wife was at home with a 9 month old baby. That's just a great presidential candidate for conservatives these days. Trump being bankrupt doesn't even phase people this gross.

 It will matter with swing voters, not awful people, suburban neighborhoods and hopefully rally base support and turn out for Biden. The money he has to put up will matter as well, it will be brutal to be a down ballet republican in 2024.