Poll

US Poll...who are you voting for?

Biden
119 (73%)
Trump
13 (8%)
Third party
23 (14.1%)
Not voting
8 (4.9%)

Total Members Voted: 163

Author Topic: US Poll....who are you voting for?  (Read 13869 times)

GuitarStv

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #100 on: January 31, 2024, 07:13:55 PM »
*Larry Niven, A Gift From Earth, 1968. 

Holy crap, I thought I had read everything that Niven wrote . . . but missed this one somehow.

RetiredAt63

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #101 on: January 31, 2024, 08:15:18 PM »
*Larry Niven, A Gift From Earth, 1968. 

Holy crap, I thought I had read everything that Niven wrote . . . but missed this one somehow.

Well you were about 4 when it came out.   ;-)

reeshau

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #102 on: January 31, 2024, 08:38:53 PM »
It's baffling to me that someone would not want bodily autonomy.

When does life begin and what is the moral point at which one ought protect it - legally and morally, which are obviously at different points for many people?

Quote
OK, so you know some women who are against women's rights and you seem to have a relationship with them. Any chance you want to share their reasons for being so?

They believe life begins at conception, and it's not up to [humans] to determine if that life has a chance to survive outside the womb or not, and that it's a woman's responsibility to bring that life to birth, if that's how the process will naturally go.  Would you like me to ask for some written statements from them?  Though it does stray a bit off topic for this thread.  I think I'd actually have a far harder time finding someone I know in person who isn't quite hard-line anti-abortion (in the sense that "Rape is a crime, but adding the crime of murder doesn't fix the first crime" - yes, abortion is absolutely viewed as murder).

... for that matter, I'm not sure I know many women who use hormonal birth control, either (interfering with the process of a fertilized egg implanting being viewed similarly to abortion).  I live in a rather different bubble from most people who post here.

I suppose so. I do know quite a few people who are anti-abortion for religious reasons but they are not as extreme as what we are seeing in Texas and won't argue if you agree to disagree with them and change the subject. I only knew one person who kept bringing it up again and again until I felt very uncomfortable around her.

I could see how many women in that sort of environment would not talk about their birth control.
(saying this as a Texas resident, fully in support of a woman's right to autonomy.  Ireland, of all places, figured it out in 2018)

To me, I see such a hypocritical interest in the topic.  So you believe in life--OK.  You want to narrow the choices of a young woman--OK.  Then where is your support for her choices?  Free pre-natal care?  Paid maternity leave?  Free or subsidized daycare, so they can support the family you forced on them?  Open adoption (meaning, same sex couples) to take unwanted babies?

The true way to reduce abortions would be to support any woman who wanted a baby.  The focus of anti-abortion groups is someone who is casually getting an abortion.  Now there are 16,000 more babies in Texas born in 2022, vs. 2021--the first rise since 2014.  But how will those babies and their mothers fare over the rest of their lives?  If pro-life people truly cared about them, they would present a solution for the rest of the problem.

Captain FIRE

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #103 on: February 01, 2024, 07:50:50 AM »
Quote from: reeshau link=topic=133454.msg3226952#msg3226952 date=1706758733  Now [url=https://www.texastribune.org/2024/01/26/texas-abortion-fertility-rate-increase/
there are 16,000 more babies in Texas born in 2022, vs. 2021[/url]--the first rise since 2014.  But how will those babies and their mothers fare over the rest of their lives?  If pro-life people truly cared about them, they would present a solution for the rest of the problem.

Shockingly, not well, for likely all of the reasons you mention:
https://www.prb.org/resources/new-study-claims-abortion-is-behind-decrease-in-crime

Omy

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #104 on: February 01, 2024, 08:07:39 AM »
I read somewhere that white women account for 1/3 of abortions, non white for the remaining 2/3 of abortions. Won't anti-abortion laws result in a large number of these extra babies being...not white? This seems like a bit of a conundrum for the GOP.

fuzzy math

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #105 on: February 01, 2024, 08:09:10 AM »
Are we talking primaries? If so there should be other candidates listed. Actually the 3rd party candidates should be named anyway.

Are we talking THE BIG ELECTION? Because I'm putting huge odds that neither Biden or Trump will be the nominee on election day even if their names make it to the Nov ballot

Morning Glory

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #106 on: February 01, 2024, 08:35:02 AM »
I read somewhere that white women account for 1/3 of abortions, non white for the remaining 2/3 of abortions. Won't anti-abortion laws result in a large number of these extra babies being...not white? This seems like a bit of a conundrum for the GOP.

Nope they are using it as a talking point to call abortion advocates racist and accuse them of eugenics. 

GuitarStv

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #107 on: February 01, 2024, 08:36:06 AM »
I read somewhere that white women account for 1/3 of abortions, non white for the remaining 2/3 of abortions. Won't anti-abortion laws result in a large number of these extra babies being...not white? This seems like a bit of a conundrum for the GOP.

Nope they are using it as a talking point to call abortion advocates racist and accuse them of eugenics.

It's so much less racist to remove choice and force people to do what you want.

maizefolk

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #108 on: February 01, 2024, 08:47:40 AM »
I read somewhere that white women account for 1/3 of abortions, non white for the remaining 2/3 of abortions. Won't anti-abortion laws result in a large number of these extra babies being...not white? This seems like a bit of a conundrum for the GOP.

I think you may be operating off of an incorrect mental model of how the people you disagree with see the world.

In your real world not-behind-a-screen life do you know folks who open talks about voting for republican congressional or presidential candidates? I'm not one, but I live in a place where they are all around me and it's always shocking how different many of the people on this forum seem to think republicans think about the world from what I actually hear directly from republicans.

I don't know if it's simply the difference between the perspective of a child/young adult and the perceptions of an adult, but it seems like this issue -- not just that people disagree about deep and fundamental values but they don't understand what beliefs and values the people "on the other side" actually hold are -- has gotten a lot worse in the last decade or so.

SunnyDays

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #109 on: February 01, 2024, 10:59:38 AM »
Are we talking primaries? If so there should be other candidates listed. Actually the 3rd party candidates should be named anyway.

Are we talking THE BIG ELECTION? Because I'm putting huge odds that neither Biden or Trump will be the nominee on election day even if their names make it to the Nov ballot

Who do you think WILL be on the ballot and why?  I can’t see it going any other way than Trump/Biden, but then I’m not American.

fuzzy math

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #110 on: February 01, 2024, 11:27:08 AM »


Who do you think WILL be on the ballot and why?  I can’t see it going any other way than Trump/Biden, but then I’m not American.

I'm not the most up to date on the legalese of how things would go down if either candidate were ineligible on election day (dead or in federal prison are my top 2 thoughts on the candidates).. would a newly appointed president Harris automatically get the votes for every state's ballot if Biden were to die or become 100% mentally incapable? Would Trump's VP pick (not yet elected) get all his votes automatically if Trump was in jail?

Its very apparent that Gov Gavin Newsome is "not running" as a shadow candidate. He's debated DeSantis, he's been making the late night rounds and laughing when asked. The big question is if Kamala would be the heir apparent or if Newsome would be it for the Dems.

I have no idea what would happen on the republican side because there's not currently anyone in power. Would a write in campaign be enough for either party?




jrhampt

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #111 on: February 01, 2024, 11:42:39 AM »


Who do you think WILL be on the ballot and why?  I can’t see it going any other way than Trump/Biden, but then I’m not American.

I'm not the most up to date on the legalese of how things would go down if either candidate were ineligible on election day (dead or in federal prison are my top 2 thoughts on the candidates).. would a newly appointed president Harris automatically get the votes for every state's ballot if Biden were to die or become 100% mentally incapable? Would Trump's VP pick (not yet elected) get all his votes automatically if Trump was in jail?

Its very apparent that Gov Gavin Newsome is "not running" as a shadow candidate. He's debated DeSantis, he's been making the late night rounds and laughing when asked. The big question is if Kamala would be the heir apparent or if Newsome would be it for the Dems.

I have no idea what would happen on the republican side because there's not currently anyone in power. Would a write in campaign be enough for either party?

I would say 95% chance of a Trump/Biden rematch with a (maybe overly generous) 5% chance Nikki Haley pulls off a miracle.  I am rooting for Nikki to pull this off even though I am a D voter, but its a very long shot.  I would be so relieved if Trump was off the ticket.

Psychstache

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #112 on: February 01, 2024, 11:53:34 AM »


Who do you think WILL be on the ballot and why?  I can’t see it going any other way than Trump/Biden, but then I’m not American.

I'm not the most up to date on the legalese of how things would go down if either candidate were ineligible on election day (dead or in federal prison are my top 2 thoughts on the candidates).. would a newly appointed president Harris automatically get the votes for every state's ballot if Biden were to die or become 100% mentally incapable? Would Trump's VP pick (not yet elected) get all his votes automatically if Trump was in jail?

Its very apparent that Gov Gavin Newsome is "not running" as a shadow candidate. He's debated DeSantis, he's been making the late night rounds and laughing when asked. The big question is if Kamala would be the heir apparent or if Newsome would be it for the Dems.

I have no idea what would happen on the republican side because there's not currently anyone in power. Would a write in campaign be enough for either party?

Newsome, much likely Haley at this point, is posturing for a bid in 2028.

dividendman

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #113 on: February 01, 2024, 12:38:20 PM »


Who do you think WILL be on the ballot and why?  I can’t see it going any other way than Trump/Biden, but then I’m not American.

I'm not the most up to date on the legalese of how things would go down if either candidate were ineligible on election day (dead or in federal prison are my top 2 thoughts on the candidates).. would a newly appointed president Harris automatically get the votes for every state's ballot if Biden were to die or become 100% mentally incapable? Would Trump's VP pick (not yet elected) get all his votes automatically if Trump was in jail?

Its very apparent that Gov Gavin Newsome is "not running" as a shadow candidate. He's debated DeSantis, he's been making the late night rounds and laughing when asked. The big question is if Kamala would be the heir apparent or if Newsome would be it for the Dems.

I have no idea what would happen on the republican side because there's not currently anyone in power. Would a write in campaign be enough for either party?

I would say 95% chance of a Trump/Biden rematch with a (maybe overly generous) 5% chance Nikki Haley pulls off a miracle.  I am rooting for Nikki to pull this off even though I am a D voter, but its a very long shot.  I would be so relieved if Trump was off the ticket.

The odds are at least 5% it's not Trump and Biden.. because according to actuarial tables (https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html#fn1) there is > 7% Biden dies in the next 12 months and ~5% Trump dies in the next 12 months... and probably even greater chance of incapacitation. That has to be weighed against the higher than average of rich/well cared for people living, but still.


edited: to put in the male probabilities
« Last Edit: February 01, 2024, 12:39:51 PM by dividendman »

seattlecyclone

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #114 on: February 01, 2024, 01:42:15 PM »
Who do you think WILL be on the ballot and why?  I can’t see it going any other way than Trump/Biden, but then I’m not American.

Biden's on the ballot unless he dies before the Democrats' nominating convention in August. He has no serious competition for the nomination and it's hard to imagine what would change that.

Trump of course has that same mortality risk. Beyond that...his delay tactics in his various criminal trials seem to be working well enough that he's unlikely to be a convicted felon before the Republican convention where they officially ratify their nominee. It's unclear if a conviction would cause a majority of delegates to vote against him anyway. No Constitutional provision against running from prison; it has been done before. Haley is still running against him on the Republican side, and only finished 10 points behind him in New Hampshire, but I'm guessing that's one of her more favorable states and Trump will easily win most of the states. We shall see.

I'm not the most up to date on the legalese of how things would go down if either candidate were ineligible on election day (dead or in federal prison are my top 2 thoughts on the candidates).. would a newly appointed president Harris automatically get the votes for every state's ballot if Biden were to die or become 100% mentally incapable? Would Trump's VP pick (not yet elected) get all his votes automatically if Trump was in jail?

What happens if a candidate dies between ballots being finalized and the actual election? It depends! There are 51 separate elections for presidential electors. States (and DC) are free to set their own rules around how these electors are chosen and how strictly they are required to vote for the popular vote winner in their jurisdiction. So if (for example) Biden dies there might be some states where the electors then have every right to switch their vote to Harris (or literally whoever they want to vote for), and some where they're still bound by law to vote for Biden. They'd better all do the same thing though, because if none of Biden, Harris, and Trump get an overall majority in the Electoral College the House of Representatives gets to elect the president (one vote per state).

If inauguration day rolls around and the president-elect is dead at that point, the elected Vice President would become president.

There's nothing in the Constitution that says you can't take the oath of office from prison. Presumably that person would then pardon themself immediately afterward.

SunnyDays

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #115 on: February 01, 2024, 03:09:18 PM »
Whoever wins, my guess is it’s going to be a shitstorm.  If Biden wins, there will be more cries of Stolen Election and riots in the streets, with possibly a repeat of January 6.  If Trump wins, goodbye democracy and the US as we know it.  If by some miracle, Haley wins the nomination, there will still be cries of Stolen Election, and again, riots.  There is no good outcome here. 

I read that as “chance of decapitation” and it made me a little bit hopeful.

Ha ha, yes, it’s likely only due to his security team that he’s still alive at this point.  God forbid that someone is successful - can you imagine the repercussions of that?

Kris

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #116 on: February 01, 2024, 06:20:02 PM »
I read somewhere that white women account for 1/3 of abortions, non white for the remaining 2/3 of abortions. Won't anti-abortion laws result in a large number of these extra babies being...not white? This seems like a bit of a conundrum for the GOP.

I think you may be operating off of an incorrect mental model of how the people you disagree with see the world.

In your real world not-behind-a-screen life do you know folks who open talks about voting for republican congressional or presidential candidates? I'm not one, but I live in a place where they are all around me and it's always shocking how different many of the people on this forum seem to think republicans think about the world from what I actually hear directly from republicans.

I don't know if it's simply the difference between the perspective of a child/young adult and the perceptions of an adult, but it seems like this issue -- not just that people disagree about deep and fundamental values but they don't understand what beliefs and values the people "on the other side" actually hold are -- has gotten a lot worse in the last decade or so.

OMY is talking about the GOP. You’re talking about voters. Their motives are quite different in many ways.

NorCal

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #117 on: February 01, 2024, 08:28:43 PM »

I think you may be operating off of an incorrect mental model of how the people you disagree with see the world.

In your real world not-behind-a-screen life do you know folks who open talks about voting for republican congressional or presidential candidates? I'm not one, but I live in a place where they are all around me and it's always shocking how different many of the people on this forum seem to think republicans think about the world from what I actually hear directly from republicans.

I don't know if it's simply the difference between the perspective of a child/young adult and the perceptions of an adult, but it seems like this issue -- not just that people disagree about deep and fundamental values but they don't understand what beliefs and values the people "on the other side" actually hold are -- has gotten a lot worse in the last decade or so.

You're absolutely right.  I've voted for people on both sides of the political aisle and lived in both heavily right and left leaning areas.  One of the things that's gotten worse over the last generation is that our society has become more geographically and socially divided. 

Most people in left leaning areas have never actual had a genuine conversation with a republican.  Republican's have become a caricature to them.

The inverse is true in right leaning areas.  There's an expectation that you'd hate those crazy liberals.  And those crazy liberals are based on a caricature that doesn't really exist either. 

Omy

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #118 on: February 02, 2024, 02:47:58 AM »
Your quote is incorrectly tagged to Kris.

I live around, socialize, and worked with a LOT of Republicans. We have animated, respectful discussions about our differences and have remained friends. But I have no time for those who idolize Trump and believe every lie and conspiracy theory that comes along.

One of my best friends voted for Trump in 2016 and we've talked about it at length and are respectful about our differences. She's a lifelong Republican who won't vote for him again because of his attack on abortion rights and January 6th (and the fraud, sexual assault, and general chaos that occurred during his term).

Something like 69% of Americans believe abortion should be legal in the first trimester - some of those people are Republicans. Yet the GOP has taken the extreme stance that abortion should be outlawed.

I was merely pointing out that outlawing abortion will literally create more Democrats.

reeshau

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #119 on: February 02, 2024, 05:45:27 AM »
When I was growing up, my Dad's family would have colorful, energetic political discussions.  Now, to set the stage, my grandparents were Jimmy Carter's state campaign managers, and grandpa was editor of the AFL / CIO newspaper there.  My Dad was an auto executive, and his brother was a veteran and tech executive.  My aunt was a Peace Corps volunteer, and worked in the state university system.  So, colorful and energetic.  Their debates were sometimes so animated, it would send me into laughing fits.  (This is at 5-10 years old)

Then we we all sit down to Christmas dinner, and talk about what we were thankful for, or sports.  (Pretty uniform on supported teams)

So, my pattern for political discourse is by no means one-sided.  I'm grateful for the example they set that allows disagreement not to dictate relationships or personal opinions.  I wish more people had that pattern available to them.

maizefolk

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #120 on: February 02, 2024, 06:21:39 AM »
In my experience -- and putting aside the question of immigration -- the short hand that "white people = republicans and anyone else automatically = democrats" is much more widely believed/thought about on the left than the right. We can debate how useful that shorthand is. Based on exit polls in a state like Texas a voter who identifies as white has a roughly 3 out of 5 chance of having voted for Trump in 2020 and a voter who identifies as hispanic has a roughly 2 out of 5 chance. Also keep in mind how fluid racial identification is in the USA. Many children born to mothers who identify as latinas grow up to identify as either white or "some other race."

But that wasn't actually the thing about your statement which prompted my response. Human beings often do things that they see as ethical imperatives regardless of whether it helps them accomplish their other goals or not and these typically aren't hard decisions or ones they even consider decisions. So it does not seem like a conundrum that a group of people who saw abortion as equivalent to murder (which, to be clear, is a view I do not share) would try to stop the practice today even if it might make it harder to elect people they agreed with in the future.

An equivalent statement from someone outside of the political left that would capture the same failure to grasp the actual thinking of the people they are speaking about would be: "It seems obvious funding medicare increase the number of voters over 65 (implicitly but not stated: "who are trump voters"). Seems like a bit of a conundrum for the Dems."

Log

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #121 on: February 03, 2024, 09:21:28 AM »
What’s going on with this Newsom / Newsome misspelling? If it were just one person I’d ignore it and move on, but it seems really odd that multiple people are using the same misspelling that doesn’t seem like an intuitive/obvious way it “should” be spelled.

Yes, Newsom may have higher political aspirations, but to think that has anything to do with this current election seems rather conspiratorial. His current gubernatorial term ends in 2027, so it is well-timed for a 2028 presidential campaign. He’s only 56, he’s already at the very top in state politics, and he’s term-limited from running for governor again, so aspiring to national politics just seems like the natural “next step” for him. Even if his campaign doesn’t get traction, a presidential primary is an easy way to get free press and “fail up” into a cabinet position or the like.

Kris

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #122 on: February 03, 2024, 10:07:45 AM »
What’s going on with this Newsom / Newsome misspelling? If it were just one person I’d ignore it and move on, but it seems really odd that multiple people are using the same misspelling that doesn’t seem like an intuitive/obvious way it “should” be spelled.

Yes, Newsom may have higher political aspirations, but to think that has anything to do with this current election seems rather conspiratorial. His current gubernatorial term ends in 2027, so it is well-timed for a 2028 presidential campaign. He’s only 56, he’s already at the very top in state politics, and he’s term-limited from running for governor again, so aspiring to national politics just seems like the natural “next step” for him. Even if his campaign doesn’t get traction, a presidential primary is an easy way to get free press and “fail up” into a cabinet position or the like.

I’ve seen a lot of people with the name “Newsome” in my life. Gavin Newsom is the only person I’ve seen spell it his way. I think that might be the source of it.

Edit: my spellcheck likes Newsome but not Newsom. So even it seems to suggest this.

Dicey

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #123 on: February 03, 2024, 10:23:19 AM »
Yesterday, our voter pamphlets arrived. DH said, "Yours says [wrong party] on it." I spent the rest of the day wondering how the hell that happened. This morning, he confessed.

Whew, changing anything regarding voter registration is a sure-fire way to get a jury-duty summons, not to mention what my friends would think, lol.

reeshau

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #124 on: February 03, 2024, 10:51:14 AM »
So that's the new, effective Trump threat?  All supporters of Nikki Haley get jury duty?

dang1

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #125 on: February 03, 2024, 11:48:35 AM »
increasingly concerned about street crime, paying more attention to politicians who address it.

Kris

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #126 on: February 03, 2024, 01:03:57 PM »
increasingly concerned about street crime, paying more attention to politicians who address it.

Poverty is a huge driver of street crime. I am paying attention to politicians who genuinely attempt to address that, rather than “tough on crime” rhetoric.

Log

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #127 on: February 03, 2024, 02:58:52 PM »
increasingly concerned about street crime, paying more attention to politicians who address it.

Aside from the COVID spike, which has already largely subsided, crime has been on a steady downward trajectory for decades. And many reforms necessary to address public order/public safety are entirely under the purview of municipal politics, not federal.

dang1

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #128 on: February 03, 2024, 09:57:28 PM »
increasingly concerned about street crime, paying more attention to politicians who address it.

Poverty is a huge driver of street crime. I am paying attention to politicians who genuinely attempt to address that, rather than “tough on crime” rhetoric.

long term, reducing poverty helps reduce crime.
short term, just not let psychopaths in and out of prison

dang1

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #129 on: February 03, 2024, 10:03:07 PM »
increasingly concerned about street crime, paying more attention to politicians who address it.

Aside from the COVID spike, which has already largely subsided, crime has been on a steady downward trajectory for decades. And many reforms necessary to address public order/public safety are entirely under the purview of municipal politics, not federal.

"Even in cities where homicide has returned to pre-2020 levels, it is still intolerably high, with some 20,000 lives lost to intentional violence last year. Other trends, such as motor vehicle theft and carjacking, also merit significant attention. Motor vehicle theft, for instance, is considered a “keystone” crime because stolen vehicles are often used in the commission of a robbery, drive-by shooting, or other violent offense. For these reasons and to achieve long-term reductions, local, state, and federal governments, along with communities and industries, must invest in evidence-based crime prevention efforts."
https://counciloncj.org/year-end-2023-crime-trends/

onecoolcat

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #130 on: February 03, 2024, 10:51:10 PM »
I am a moderate Republican and I am hoping Haley pulls it off.  If she doesn't, then I am voting for Biden.  I am also voting against anyone who is MAGA and anyone who does not support military aid to Ukraine.  Probably voting D down the ballot.

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #131 on: February 04, 2024, 05:31:38 AM »

I think you may be operating off of an incorrect mental model of how the people you disagree with see the world.

In your real world not-behind-a-screen life do you know folks who open talks about voting for republican congressional or presidential candidates? I'm not one, but I live in a place where they are all around me and it's always shocking how different many of the people on this forum seem to think republicans think about the world from what I actually hear directly from republicans.

I don't know if it's simply the difference between the perspective of a child/young adult and the perceptions of an adult, but it seems like this issue -- not just that people disagree about deep and fundamental values but they don't understand what beliefs and values the people "on the other side" actually hold are -- has gotten a lot worse in the last decade or so.

You're absolutely right.  I've voted for people on both sides of the political aisle and lived in both heavily right and left leaning areas.  One of the things that's gotten worse over the last generation is that our society has become more geographically and socially divided. 

Most people in left leaning areas have never actual had a genuine conversation with a republican.  Republican's have become a caricature to them.

The inverse is true in right leaning areas.  There's an expectation that you'd hate those crazy liberals.  And those crazy liberals are based on a caricature that doesn't really exist either.

In the last couple of years I’ve moved from an area where my neighbors used to be moderate Democrats, but then put on MAGA hats, to a place where if you’re a Republican you keep that to yourself. ;-)

So I’ve had lots and lots of conversations with people about their views and I think we are teetering on the edge of some big problems.

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #132 on: February 04, 2024, 08:00:09 AM »
I am a moderate Republican and I am hoping Haley pulls it off.  If she doesn't, then I am voting for Biden.  I am also voting against anyone who is MAGA and anyone who does not support military aid to Ukraine.  Probably voting D down the ballot.

News from the psychic world:  I came across some political predictions for 2024 from some random psychics on the internet:  one predicted Trump would not live to see the election, and another predicted we would see the first U.S. female president.
Both are very possible.  And Scary Haley is the "moderate" one...

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #133 on: February 04, 2024, 09:59:10 AM »
increasingly concerned about street crime, paying more attention to politicians who address it.

Aside from the COVID spike, which has already largely subsided, crime has been on a steady downward trajectory for decades. And many reforms necessary to address public order/public safety are entirely under the purview of municipal politics, not federal.

"Even in cities where homicide has returned to pre-2020 levels, it is still intolerably high, with some 20,000 lives lost to intentional violence last year. Other trends, such as motor vehicle theft and carjacking, also merit significant attention. Motor vehicle theft, for instance, is considered a “keystone” crime because stolen vehicles are often used in the commission of a robbery, drive-by shooting, or other violent offense. For these reasons and to achieve long-term reductions, local, state, and federal governments, along with communities and industries, must invest in evidence-based crime prevention efforts."
https://counciloncj.org/year-end-2023-crime-trends/

To my mind, fixation on crime is largely a consequence of media incentives. Media about crime is designed to scare you into clicking, and then turn you into the kind of person who's so fixated on crime news that you'll continue to click. My point is that at a certain point, it becomes a matter of choice how much you fixate on crime. Between, "wow, I remember how much more dangerous the city was when I was younger and I'm so glad it's gotten so much better" vs "crime is still intolerably high." We can nurture either one of these worldviews in ourself.

Automobile collisions kill approximately twice as many people as your intentional violence stat. They're the leading cause of death of younger people. And generally, if you follow the simple rule of thumb of avoiding hanging out with violent, rash people who carry guns, you won't be the victim of murder. On the other hand, every law-abiding, responsible citizen who travels along our roadways (by car, bike, or foot) is taking their life into their hands. What about prioritizing public health? Voting for politicians who will help mitigate all the loss of life from obesity or loneliness?

I'm not saying crime is not an issue and that we shouldn't be constantly trying to do better. I just take issue with the claim that it's of the highest importance amongst so many other issues facing our society right now.

I also should say I don't make those comparisons of sheer number of deaths from other causes to diminish that the cost of crime is diffuse. Obviously theft and all sorts of other crime have costs. But I think a lot of media conflates "crime" with "disorder." There are a lot of people living in public squalor in the streets of cities around America, and that's a huge problem in all sorts of ways, but I don't think tackling that problem from the angle of "crime" is the most productive approach. There's a drug component, but also housing, mental health, improving educational pipelines to gainful employment for people outside the "college track," reducing childhood poverty and doing everything we can to give poor kids and foster kids more stable childhoods... To go to the end consequences and say, "this junkie stole my catalytic converter, we need to crack down on crime!" just doesn't seem to acknowledge the complexity of the problem.

"We should probably hire some more police officers" is one tiny piece of a multi-faceted approach to these issues.

Dicey

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #134 on: February 04, 2024, 10:22:51 AM »
increasingly concerned about street crime, paying more attention to politicians who address it.

Poverty is a huge driver of street crime. I am paying attention to politicians who genuinely attempt to address that, rather than “tough on crime” rhetoric.
So is.lack of law enforcement, combined with lax prosecution. Many steal far beyond covering basic needs, they're doing it to create wealth. They want the pro athlete lifestyle without the work that goes into it.

Chris Pascale

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #135 on: February 04, 2024, 02:01:32 PM »
*Larry Niven, A Gift From Earth, 1968. 

Holy crap, I thought I had read everything that Niven wrote . . . but missed this one somehow.

Never heard of him. Perhaps he'll be on my list after I'm done with James Michener and James McBride.

Chris Pascale

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #136 on: February 04, 2024, 02:03:12 PM »
It's baffling to me that someone would not want bodily autonomy.

When does life begin and what is the moral point at which one ought protect it - legally and morally, which are obviously at different points for many people?

Quote
OK, so you know some women who are against women's rights and you seem to have a relationship with them. Any chance you want to share their reasons for being so?

They believe life begins at conception, and it's not up to [humans] to determine if that life has a chance to survive outside the womb or not, and that it's a woman's responsibility to bring that life to birth, if that's how the process will naturally go.  Would you like me to ask for some written statements from them?  Though it does stray a bit off topic for this thread.  I think I'd actually have a far harder time finding someone I know in person who isn't quite hard-line anti-abortion (in the sense that "Rape is a crime, but adding the crime of murder doesn't fix the first crime" - yes, abortion is absolutely viewed as murder).

... for that matter, I'm not sure I know many women who use hormonal birth control, either (interfering with the process of a fertilized egg implanting being viewed similarly to abortion).  I live in a rather different bubble from most people who post here.

I suppose so. I do know quite a few people who are anti-abortion for religious reasons but they are not as extreme as what we are seeing in Texas and won't argue if you agree to disagree with them and change the subject. I only knew one person who kept bringing it up again and again until I felt very uncomfortable around her.

I could see how many women in that sort of environment would not talk about their birth control.
(saying this as a Texas resident, fully in support of a woman's right to autonomy.  Ireland, of all places, figured it out in 2018)

To me, I see such a hypocritical interest in the topic.  So you believe in life--OK.  You want to narrow the choices of a young woman--OK.  Then where is your support for her choices?  Free pre-natal care?  Paid maternity leave?  Free or subsidized daycare, so they can support the family you forced on them?  Open adoption (meaning, same sex couples) to take unwanted babies?

The true way to reduce abortions would be to support any woman who wanted a baby.  The focus of anti-abortion groups is someone who is casually getting an abortion.  Now there are 16,000 more babies in Texas born in 2022, vs. 2021--the first rise since 2014.  But how will those babies and their mothers fare over the rest of their lives?  If pro-life people truly cared about them, they would present a solution for the rest of the problem.

2 of my kids were born in Texas. My understanding was that after Roe v. Wade, there was suddenly more attention paid to helping people navigate this whole 'having a baby' thing.

GuitarStv

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #137 on: February 04, 2024, 02:14:04 PM »
*Larry Niven, A Gift From Earth, 1968. 

Holy crap, I thought I had read everything that Niven wrote . . . but missed this one somehow.

Never heard of him. Perhaps he'll be on my list after I'm done with James Michener and James McBride.

Larry Niven had quite a few great ideas, but tended towards a very pulp-y kind of sci-fi which kept him fom being mentioned with the greats.  If looking for a comparison Niven probably shares the most in common with Heinlein's early career stuff.

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #138 on: February 04, 2024, 02:17:50 PM »
increasingly concerned about street crime, paying more attention to politicians who address it.

Poverty is a huge driver of street crime. I am paying attention to politicians who genuinely attempt to address that, rather than “tough on crime” rhetoric.
So is.lack of law enforcement, combined with lax prosecution. Many steal far beyond covering basic needs, they're doing it to create wealth. They want the pro athlete lifestyle without the work that goes into it.

I see mainly retailers complaining about it and yet they still refuse to get rid of the stupid self checkouts and hire enough cashiers.

dang1

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #139 on: February 04, 2024, 02:21:30 PM »
increasingly concerned about street crime, paying more attention to politicians who address it.

Aside from the COVID spike, which has already largely subsided, crime has been on a steady downward trajectory for decades. And many reforms necessary to address public order/public safety are entirely under the purview of municipal politics, not federal.

"Even in cities where homicide has returned to pre-2020 levels, it is still intolerably high, with some 20,000 lives lost to intentional violence last year. Other trends, such as motor vehicle theft and carjacking, also merit significant attention. Motor vehicle theft, for instance, is considered a “keystone” crime because stolen vehicles are often used in the commission of a robbery, drive-by shooting, or other violent offense. For these reasons and to achieve long-term reductions, local, state, and federal governments, along with communities and industries, must invest in evidence-based crime prevention efforts."
https://counciloncj.org/year-end-2023-crime-trends/

To my mind, fixation on crime is largely a consequence of media incentives. Media about crime is designed to scare you into clicking, and then turn you into the kind of person who's so fixated on crime news that you'll continue to click. My point is that at a certain point, it becomes a matter of choice how much you fixate on crime. Between, "wow, I remember how much more dangerous the city was when I was younger and I'm so glad it's gotten so much better" vs "crime is still intolerably high." We can nurture either one of these worldviews in ourself.

Automobile collisions kill approximately twice as many people as your intentional violence stat. They're the leading cause of death of younger people. And generally, if you follow the simple rule of thumb of avoiding hanging out with violent, rash people who carry guns, you won't be the victim of murder. On the other hand, every law-abiding, responsible citizen who travels along our roadways (by car, bike, or foot) is taking their life into their hands. What about prioritizing public health? Voting for politicians who will help mitigate all the loss of life from obesity or loneliness?

I'm not saying crime is not an issue and that we shouldn't be constantly trying to do better. I just take issue with the claim that it's of the highest importance amongst so many other issues facing our society right now.

I also should say I don't make those comparisons of sheer number of deaths from other causes to diminish that the cost of crime is diffuse. Obviously theft and all sorts of other crime have costs. But I think a lot of media conflates "crime" with "disorder." There are a lot of people living in public squalor in the streets of cities around America, and that's a huge problem in all sorts of ways, but I don't think tackling that problem from the angle of "crime" is the most productive approach. There's a drug component, but also housing, mental health, improving educational pipelines to gainful employment for people outside the "college track," reducing childhood poverty and doing everything we can to give poor kids and foster kids more stable childhoods... To go to the end consequences and say, "this junkie stole my catalytic converter, we need to crack down on crime!" just doesn't seem to acknowledge the complexity of the problem.

"We should probably hire some more police officers" is one tiny piece of a multi-faceted approach to these issues.

Personal safety - a basic human need, in a time of a shaky democracy and its implications, should be a high importance amongst many other issues facing our society right now.

When media reported crime in poorer neighborhoods, it seemed so remote and distant. Becoming lived experience to the wealthier, as crime starts seeping into their lives. While Rolex robbery, LV bag snatching, Mercedes carjacking may less likely happen to Mustacians; home invasions, muggings, random thrill attacks also happen to less conspicuous consumptors. Reluctance to be out and about in the neighborhood: exercising, running errands, meeting people, when crime is a concern.

Driving slower in higher safety-rated vehicles, being mentally unimpaired, paying attention, can go a long way in safer use for more convenience; also prosecution of traffic law violators. Vehicles are also often the last mile not served by transit for the not so able-bodied, can't bike, have trouble walking. Transit crime is also part of decreasing transit use.

Among parts of the solution: keep violent criminals in prison, replenish diminished police staffing, reducing poverty, drug treatment, more mental health

Chris Pascale

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #140 on: February 04, 2024, 02:24:34 PM »
I read somewhere that white women account for 1/3 of abortions, non white for the remaining 2/3 of abortions. Won't anti-abortion laws result in a large number of these extra babies being...not white? This seems like a bit of a conundrum for the GOP.

I think you may be operating off of an incorrect mental model of how the people you disagree with see the world.

In your real world not-behind-a-screen life do you know folks who open talks about voting for republican congressional or presidential candidates? I'm not one, but I live in a place where they are all around me and it's always shocking how different many of the people on this forum seem to think republicans think about the world from what I actually hear directly from republicans.

I don't know if it's simply the difference between the perspective of a child/young adult and the perceptions of an adult, but it seems like this issue -- not just that people disagree about deep and fundamental values but they don't understand what beliefs and values the people "on the other side" actually hold are -- has gotten a lot worse in the last decade or so.

As someone who goes into each election cycle looking for people from any party to vote for, I was feeling the same about this comment.

My experience with the 2020 Yang campaign sharpened my POV on politics a little. For one, black voters (unless they were Andrew Yang fans) were wary of me talking to them about voting at all.

White liberals get pretty weird about the votes of those in other parts of society from them. I have an older, wealthy relative who doesn't see how much of a jackass he looks like when telling people how they should vote, based on - per his words - their job or age, or some other visible characteristic. For example, one relative was dating a teacher, and brought him to a family function. This guy was like "you're a teacher. You should vote Democrat," and this guy was like, fuck you and the German car you drove in on. I have never once (and I mean, ever, even once) heard this relative ask someone why they like or think in a different way from him, with one exception. That exception was when Bill Maher the night before said some kind of line that he then repeated the next day.

Dicey

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #141 on: February 04, 2024, 02:26:59 PM »
increasingly concerned about street crime, paying more attention to politicians who address it.

Poverty is a huge driver of street crime. I am paying attention to politicians who genuinely attempt to address that, rather than “tough on crime” rhetoric.
So is.lack of law enforcement, combined with lax prosecution. Many steal far beyond covering basic needs, they're doing it to create wealth. They want the pro athlete lifestyle without the work that goes into it.

I see mainly retailers complaining about it and yet they still refuse to get rid of the stupid self checkouts and hire enough cashiers.
Absolutely no connection between the two in my world. Safeway, for example, has a no-chase, non-confrontational policy. The bad guys know it. They steal a few wallets, load up a cart and go straight out the door. They don't care one bit about the availability of cashiers vs. self checkout.

dang1

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #142 on: February 04, 2024, 02:35:24 PM »
increasingly concerned about street crime, paying more attention to politicians who address it.

Poverty is a huge driver of street crime. I am paying attention to politicians who genuinely attempt to address that, rather than “tough on crime” rhetoric.
So is.lack of law enforcement, combined with lax prosecution. Many steal far beyond covering basic needs, they're doing it to create wealth. They want the pro athlete lifestyle without the work that goes into it.

I see mainly retailers complaining about it and yet they still refuse to get rid of the stupid self checkouts and hire enough cashiers.
Absolutely no connection between the two in my world. Safeway, for example, has a no-chase, non-confrontational policy. The bad guys know it. They steal a few wallets, load up a cart and go straight out the door. They don't care one bit about the availability of cashiers vs. self checkout.

"security guard who was killed while trying to stop shoplifters "
https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/family-slain-pleasanton-home-depot-case-alameda-county-da/3328463/

RetiredAt63

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #143 on: February 04, 2024, 02:44:54 PM »
Too long to fully quote the thread:
Becoming lived experience to the wealthier, as crime starts seeping into their lives.

There is nothing new in this.  We almost had a stereo stolen out of the car when we lived in a very nice area - in the 1970s.  2 other cars had their stereos taken the same night.  They targeted nice cars left in driveways.

We had 2 thefts years apart at the same house, in the 1980s and 1990s, in another very nice neighbourhood.

Nice neighbourhoods are good targets, the occupants are most likely not home during the day, and they have stuff worth stealing.

The one time we almost walked into an armed holdup at a corner store (Quebec so handguns were very rare) was in the 1970s.

Hmm, I have had no crime encounters in over 30 years, after having 4 in the previous 30 or so years.  Crime is going down, according my my sample size = 1.

It is more that the media cover everything, and they cover wider geographical areas now.  So the perception changes.



dang1

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #144 on: February 04, 2024, 02:48:42 PM »
"Auto theft considered a 'national crisis' in Canada, with nearly all stolen cars exported by organized crime"
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/auto-theft-canada-1.6953242

seattlecyclone

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #145 on: February 04, 2024, 04:37:42 PM »
increasingly concerned about street crime, paying more attention to politicians who address it.

Aside from the COVID spike, which has already largely subsided, crime has been on a steady downward trajectory for decades. And many reforms necessary to address public order/public safety are entirely under the purview of municipal politics, not federal.

"Even in cities where homicide has returned to pre-2020 levels, it is still intolerably high, with some 20,000 lives lost to intentional violence last year. Other trends, such as motor vehicle theft and carjacking, also merit significant attention. Motor vehicle theft, for instance, is considered a “keystone” crime because stolen vehicles are often used in the commission of a robbery, drive-by shooting, or other violent offense. For these reasons and to achieve long-term reductions, local, state, and federal governments, along with communities and industries, must invest in evidence-based crime prevention efforts."
https://counciloncj.org/year-end-2023-crime-trends/

To my mind, fixation on crime is largely a consequence of media incentives. Media about crime is designed to scare you into clicking, and then turn you into the kind of person who's so fixated on crime news that you'll continue to click. My point is that at a certain point, it becomes a matter of choice how much you fixate on crime. Between, "wow, I remember how much more dangerous the city was when I was younger and I'm so glad it's gotten so much better" vs "crime is still intolerably high." We can nurture either one of these worldviews in ourself.

Automobile collisions kill approximately twice as many people as your intentional violence stat. They're the leading cause of death of younger people. And generally, if you follow the simple rule of thumb of avoiding hanging out with violent, rash people who carry guns, you won't be the victim of murder. On the other hand, every law-abiding, responsible citizen who travels along our roadways (by car, bike, or foot) is taking their life into their hands. What about prioritizing public health? Voting for politicians who will help mitigate all the loss of life from obesity or loneliness?

I'm not saying crime is not an issue and that we shouldn't be constantly trying to do better. I just take issue with the claim that it's of the highest importance amongst so many other issues facing our society right now.

I also should say I don't make those comparisons of sheer number of deaths from other causes to diminish that the cost of crime is diffuse. Obviously theft and all sorts of other crime have costs. But I think a lot of media conflates "crime" with "disorder." There are a lot of people living in public squalor in the streets of cities around America, and that's a huge problem in all sorts of ways, but I don't think tackling that problem from the angle of "crime" is the most productive approach. There's a drug component, but also housing, mental health, improving educational pipelines to gainful employment for people outside the "college track," reducing childhood poverty and doing everything we can to give poor kids and foster kids more stable childhoods... To go to the end consequences and say, "this junkie stole my catalytic converter, we need to crack down on crime!" just doesn't seem to acknowledge the complexity of the problem.

"We should probably hire some more police officers" is one tiny piece of a multi-faceted approach to these issues.

Personal safety - a basic human need, in a time of a shaky democracy and its implications, should be a high importance amongst many other issues facing our society right now.

Yes, of course personal safety is important. We have (largely right-wing) media outlets alleging that personal safety is on the decline due to a rise in urban crime, and yet there's precious little evidence that this trend is actually taking place. What we do have is a rise in urban poverty and homelessness, and if you watch certain news media you'd think homelessness is synonymous with danger, and that increasing the amount of policing is likely to somehow clean up the streets and get rid of the poor people cluttering them up.

I see folks on social media around here saying they're unwilling to use public transit because it's not as safe as it used to be. I ride the trains at least weekly and feel very comfortable bringing my children on them. I don't see them as a dangerous place at all.

I responded to one such commenter recently, asking for more details about the unsafe behavior he had personally experienced.

He responded that he was afraid of being exposed to drugs on trains, not just from people actually smoking on trains (which I don't recall ever observing in my 15 years living in Seattle), but also just from sitting on the seats. See, there was a study showing that some transit seats do have trace amount of drugs on them sometimes. The media ate that up, but there's a pretty massive difference between "scientifically measurable quantity of drugs stuck to the seats" and "so much drugs on the seats that an intoxicating quantity of drugs could possibly soak through your pants and your skin."

He also said that he had experienced occasions exiting the very same train station that I use to get to my office, where he felt he was being followed by suspicious people and felt the need to jog to the nearby courthouse in order to feel safer. Again, I have never been concerned for my safety exiting that train station. The existing security staff seems to maintain order pretty well, it's usually just people waiting for their train like anywhere else. My biggest wish for improvement in that station would be for another couple of janitors and more reliable escalators.

It's like we're living in two completely separate versions of reality. In my experience the most dangerous part of my commute, by far, is the short bike ride to the station closest my house. I can't tell you the number of times I've had to swerve into traffic to avoid cars illegally parked in the bike lane, or brake hard to avoid crashing into right-turning cars that failed to yield to traffic in the bike lane. If I were to make a list of ten things I'd like to see our city spend money improving, personal safety would indeed represent several items on the list, but I doubt "more cops" would appear on there at all. The types of things cops help with are not the types of things that I currently worry about as a city resident.

dang1

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #146 on: February 04, 2024, 05:39:55 PM »
increasingly concerned about street crime, paying more attention to politicians who address it.

Aside from the COVID spike, which has already largely subsided, crime has been on a steady downward trajectory for decades. And many reforms necessary to address public order/public safety are entirely under the purview of municipal politics, not federal.

"Even in cities where homicide has returned to pre-2020 levels, it is still intolerably high, with some 20,000 lives lost to intentional violence last year. Other trends, such as motor vehicle theft and carjacking, also merit significant attention. Motor vehicle theft, for instance, is considered a “keystone” crime because stolen vehicles are often used in the commission of a robbery, drive-by shooting, or other violent offense. For these reasons and to achieve long-term reductions, local, state, and federal governments, along with communities and industries, must invest in evidence-based crime prevention efforts."
https://counciloncj.org/year-end-2023-crime-trends/

..
I'm not saying crime is not an issue and that we shouldn't be constantly trying to do better. I just take issue with the claim that it's of the highest importance ..

Personal safety - a basic human need, in a time of a shaky democracy and its implications, should be a high importance amongst many other issues facing our society right now.
.. I see folks on social media around here saying they're unwilling to use public transit because it's not as safe as it used to be. I ride the trains at least weekly and..


"primarily safety and security concerns that are keeping people from riding BART, with only 17% saying they feel safe on the trains and only 16% describing the transit system as being clean."
https://www.kron4.com/news/why-arent-people-riding-bart-hint-its-not-remote-work/

"People avoid specific transit routes or bus stops, use them only during daytime, or do not use transit at all if they believe that they may be harassed or victimized"
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/23t2q2gc


Dicey

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #147 on: February 04, 2024, 05:49:48 PM »
increasingly concerned about street crime, paying more attention to politicians who address it.

Poverty is a huge driver of street crime. I am paying attention to politicians who genuinely attempt to address that, rather than “tough on crime” rhetoric.
So is.lack of law enforcement, combined with lax prosecution. Many steal far beyond covering basic needs, they're doing it to create wealth. They want the pro athlete lifestyle without the work that goes into it.

I see mainly retailers complaining about it and yet they still refuse to get rid of the stupid self checkouts and hire enough cashiers.
Absolutely no connection between the two in my world. Safeway, for example, has a no-chase, non-confrontational policy. The bad guys know it. They steal a few wallets, load up a cart and go straight out the door. They don't care one bit about the availability of cashiers vs. self checkout.

"security guard who was killed while trying to stop shoplifters "
https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/family-slain-pleasanton-home-depot-case-alameda-county-da/3328463/
Yeah, so much sympathy for the guy they killed. Senseless waste.

Dicey

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #148 on: February 04, 2024, 05:52:40 PM »
"Auto theft considered a 'national crisis' in Canada, with nearly all stolen cars exported by organized crime"
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/auto-theft-canada-1.6953242
Yes, as @Le Poisson, can attest, poor Mr. jones may have met the same fate, alas.

seattlecyclone

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Re: US Poll....who are you voting for?
« Reply #149 on: February 04, 2024, 07:28:19 PM »

.. I see folks on social media around here saying they're unwilling to use public transit because it's not as safe as it used to be. I ride the trains at least weekly and..

"primarily safety and security concerns that are keeping people from riding BART, with only 17% saying they feel safe on the trains and only 16% describing the transit system as being clean."
https://www.kron4.com/news/why-arent-people-riding-bart-hint-its-not-remote-work/

"People avoid specific transit routes or bus stops, use them only during daytime, or do not use transit at all if they believe that they may be harassed or victimized"
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/23t2q2gc

Yes, there are many people who avoid public transit due to concerns about safety. How many of these 83% who feel unsafe have actually used the transit enough to form an opinion based on at least a few first-hand experiences? Concerns are not the same thing as actual risks. Show me the data. Has crime on public transport actually been increasing, or is it more the case that media outlets with a certain ideological agenda are highlighting the incidents that do occur in order to promote that agenda?

The person I mentioned who believed there was a legitimate risk of overdosing on drugs just from sitting on a Seattle train seat is far from alone in that poorly-informed opinion. Tons of people who spend time watching and reading certain media outlets tend to form these beliefs. This is part of a well-organized propaganda campaign to paint our cities and many of the people who live in them as "vermin" who need to be controlled via an enlarged police state.

Now, I will say that the last time I rode BART (a bit over a year ago) it did seem "rougher" than any transit I've seen in Seattle. Quite possible that a few extra security guards would make a difference there. And even here, people would not be wrong to respond to a survey saying that cleanliness issues deter them from taking transit. I already mentioned I'd love to see our local transit agencies hire a few more janitors around certain stations.