Author Topic: US National Debt - Some Real Numbers  (Read 8997 times)

dramaman

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US National Debt - Some Real Numbers
« on: October 30, 2015, 07:38:07 AM »
Another thread was getting side railed with discussion about the U.S. national debt. 18 Trillion is a lot of money to us mere mortals. To give it all some perspective, I thought I'd post some numbers I found with some added crunching on my own.

   Debt in Billions
2015   18,151
2000   5,674
1985   1,823
1970   371
1955   274

Average Annual Increase in Debt (in billions)
2000 - 2015: 831.8
1985 - 2015: 544.3
1970 - 2015: 395.1
1955 - 2015: 298

In the other thread, Bob W. had questioned whether we might see the debt balloon to 100 Trillion in the next 15 years. If we took the 831.8 billion per year average from the last 15 years (which were extraordinarily bad), we could see the debt increase to 58,064 billion (58 Trillion) by 2030. If we thought that the last 15 years were a deviation, we could use the average for the last 30 years (which includes some good years) of 544.3 billion per year. That would give us a debt of 26,315 billion (26 trillion).

Note, the reason I am working in 15 year increments is that a lot of folks like pointing to how much the debt has increased since 2000.

I would hope that looking at the actual numbers gives some real context as opposed to wild guesses.

Further Note, some of these figures differ from those of the other thread due to me using more precise numbers here. A rounded 5 trillion to 18 trillion (from 2000 to 2015) increase gives a 360%, while the more precise numbers above show a more accurate increase of 319.19%.

Numbers used came from Treasury Direct:
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/histdebt/histdebt_histo4.htm
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/histdebt/histdebt_histo5.htm
« Last Edit: October 30, 2015, 07:44:02 AM by dramaman »

mrpercentage

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Re: US National Debt - Some Real Numbers
« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2015, 09:22:40 AM »
I see two real choices. We can stop spending and make serious cuts, or we can give everyone the bird including our self and inflate out of it. Both involve serious pain. That is assuming no major wars or other setbacks. If we inflate out of it it may result in the loss of being the worlds reserve currency resulting in hyper inflation. If we don't the serious cuts in spending may result in the Chinese becoming so powerful that they become the worlds currency anyway. Bad voodoo right now. We have a whole year GDP on a zero percent credit card that may go to whatever anytime.

We are in economic warfare right now. Look at oil. Just look at it. Good for our economy but business ending unnatural

dramaman

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Re: US National Debt - Some Real Numbers
« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2015, 09:33:52 AM »
There is a third option. We attempt to duplicate what was done in the 90's - increase taxes and limit spending increases (including military) and  let the growth of the economy reduce the relative size of the debt. It doesn't require drastic measures to get the debt under control. It just requires some discipline. We've done it in the past and we can do it again. This is why I don't see this as a 'sky is falling' problem, but rather a time for reasonable conversation and folks getting behind a reasonable, systematic approach.

mrpercentage

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Re: US National Debt - Some Real Numbers
« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2015, 09:55:57 AM »
I think the buck has been passed one too many times for that. Everyone can pay their bills until they can't. Then every credit card wants to raise rates and emergencies that require money happen. We are right there with seniors retiring and far too little youth to float the bill for money that was spent on things it was never intended for. They tax my check, my food, purchases, and money I risk investing. They haven't been trustworthy with what has been given. They don't deserve another dime from the lower and middle class period. Not a dime.

dramaman

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Re: US National Debt - Some Real Numbers
« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2015, 09:58:56 AM »
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/01/07/the-story-behind-obama-and-the-national-debt-in-7-charts/

This article obviously attempts to defend what has happened to the debt under Obama, but I think the graphs near the end shows some revealing details about how changes to the debt has NOT been consistent under the different administrations. One can calculate as I did average year changes to the debt, but the fact is that in the past there have been relative quiet changes interspersed with periods of relative explosive growth. The fact that our last 15 years has been one of explosive growth in no way dooms us to the same kind of growth in the future.





The other thing that is obvious to me is the meaningless of absolute number when we are talking about the U.S. national debt. To those of us working towards a stash of one or two million dollars, we simply cannot relate to these numbers in a very meaningful way. I remember back in the 80's when the debt reached 1 trillion and people were wringing their hands. ONE TRILLION DOLLARS! OMG! The sky is falling!

Funny thing is Ross Perot waged a successful enough campaign against this to be included in the presidential debates AND get matching funds. He lost, but the President and Congress listened and negotiated and in the 90's the debt ceased to be an OMG issue, even though it continued to grow, albeit at a much slower rate.

Now, after 2 recessions, 9/11, two wars - a very tumultuous period of time - the debt is at 18 trillion dollars and cue the doom saying hand wringers - EIGHTEEN TRILLION DOLLARS! OMG!

I predict that once again our nation will change course and borrowing will slow down and even though we will still owe 18+ trillion dollars, folks will find that the sky hasn't fallen. That's because the true indicator of whether the debt is unmanageable is NOT when it reaches 1 trillion, 5 trillion, 18 trillion or even 100 TRILLION! The true indicator is when people stop valuing U.S. IOUs such that they stop lining up to give us money and interest rates will go up to sweeten the deal. Given how low current interest rates are, we are not even close to that point.


Bob W

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Re: US National Debt - Some Real Numbers
« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2015, 10:47:41 AM »
Thanks for putting this up.   

The national debt is so huge it is difficult to wrap our heads around.   I certainly never signed a piece of paper or agreed to indebting my children and grandchildren to this level of crazy. 

It seems that a huge increase in debt is baked into the process at this point.   The Pubs want to cut taxes and they will.  The Dems and Pubs want to increase spending and they will.   

My guess is that we will see an acceleration of debt over the next 15 years.   Not a return to the mean or even stay at our current level.   So yeah,  possibly in excess of 50 trillion by 2030.     If at some point the dems are able to get student loan debt thrown in the we are in much deeper.

So also, my prediction is that we will continue wars periodically over the next 15 years  --- there will be at least 2 significant recessions  --- real incomes will continue to slide --- healthcare costs will approach 40% of GDP ---  unemployment will continue to grow (we won't figure out how to distribute wealth with an economy not based on employment for another generation) --- interest rates will remain very low  --- medicare and SS will be pushed to age 72 --- the economic class divide will widen with the middle class pretty much a government dependent population.   Yeah,  My crystal ball is very warmed up today.   

I'll most likely be dead by then but most of you folks will soldier on. 

zephyr911

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Re: US National Debt - Some Real Numbers
« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2015, 10:54:00 AM »
Lots of movement in the right direction the last few years, though the way we got there has been unnecessarily painful.

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/10/08/the-federal-deficit-is-now-smaller-than-the-average-since-the-1980s/


Mr Money Mutton Chops

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Re: US National Debt - Some Real Numbers
« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2015, 11:00:47 AM »

It seems that a huge increase in debt is baked into the process at this point.


Sadly it does. I don't see anyone with any power seriously trying to deal with it. Largely because it would be expensive in the short run, but that's a good reason to do it now: the longer it's delayed, the harder it will be to deal with it.

beltim

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Re: US National Debt - Some Real Numbers
« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2015, 11:07:12 AM »
Our current government spending and revenue are almost exactly the average of the last 50 years:




PathtoFIRE

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Re: US National Debt - Some Real Numbers
« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2015, 11:23:20 AM »
I think the "national debt" is a non-issue, frankly. If the treasury ceased issuing any new Treasury notes/bonds, then gradually it would completely disappear, because it's not really debt, but rather a form of money that we choose to pay interest on. We could eliminate the debt tomorrow, simply go into the Treasury computers and convert all of the bonds held by the public into dollars; gone instantly. What effect would that have? Well first of all, it would probably be contractionary for the economy, as the interest that is paid out currently adds a little to the money supply. Second, would we see inflation? I don't see how. Governments, companies, individuals have that money tied up in Treasuries for a reason. They are looking to buy cars, houses, food, gas with it, they are looking for safe secure investments, and that money will simply flow to other available but similar avenues. I don't doubt that the disappearance of Treasuries would alter the economy, probably in relation to imports/exports, but I just don't see how it results in inflation. This is why some schools of economics prefer to look at the "national debt" as the net financial assets of the private sector, i.e. a good thing for the private economy.

I think the real important thing that we have to consider is whether the various spending outlays of the federal government help or hurt the economy. Paying for increasing standards of education and health, I believe, are good, and if the fed goes into "debt" to finance these, everyone wins in the short and long term. That is what we need to be thinking about, how government policies and financial outlays influence the overall economy. If a government policy or direct government spending consumes national (and international) resources in the pursuit of something that adds to or assists the economy, great. If instead we increased taxes, and used it to build giant earthen pyramids in the Nebraska cornfields in order to bury our demigods, well I would argue that that policy will eventually impoverish us if taken to extremes. If we enact policies, like those offered by nearly all of the Republicans national politicians, that divert the financial assets of the lower 90% of the population towards those in the upper 10%, I'm sure we can expect great strides and achievements in the yacht, mansion, and private plane industries, but I think the remaining that trickles down to everyone else will be less beneficial than if we instead directed the financial rewards of our great economy to the greater masses.

PathtoFIRE

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Re: US National Debt - Some Real Numbers
« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2015, 11:40:00 AM »
A lot of people bemoan the fact that "nothing ever seems to get done" about this great problem, I know I myself felt this greatly when I first started learning about politics and economics in high school. But doesn't there get to a point when we begin to realize that this supposed day of judgment always seems to be in the future...it never seems to come. Maybe there was some error in our original way of thinking. This isn't to say that there aren't real areas of concern, I believe, in the economy and our future. But when we focus on a number that doesn't even mean what we seem to think it means, it's too easy to ignore the real problems.

The question we should be asking ourselves, always, is whether the current or whatever proposed action is a good use of the resources that it will require.

Healthcare expenditures are up, and a high compared to every other developed nation! That sounds bad, but the real question is whether it helps or hurts. If we have the longest life expectancies, the lowest infant mortality, the shortest wait times, the best outcomes, the most satisfaction with our system, the most innovation or scientific progress, then I'd say "Yes! Our relatively increased health expenditures are worth it to our society!" We don't, so I think it's a concern, but it's not as simple as saying "It's expensive, it's got to be reduced!"

Unfunded liabilities of social security are a bazillion trillion, something must be done! Well, to date, social security has been one of the most successful government programs ever, and it's outcome is the reduction in poverty and destitution of the elderly and disabled. Not to say that more can't be done, but if you tell me that SS is expensive, well then I'm going to tell you that clearly the expense is worth it, because we are all clearly better off for having it for the past 80 years.

Military expenditures are interesting to consider, because ultimately much of that money ends up in the pockets of soldiers and employees of contractors. That's good, that helps create a demand for all sorts of goods and services from a large chunk of the overall population. However, what's the result, the output, the impact on the economy and future. Much more murky. Obviously, without some degree of security or deterrent of war, surely we might expect some external negatives to our economy. And who can doubt that at least some technological and scientific progress is not directly and indirectly tied to the military (flight, computers, internet, etc.). The real question is whether those same end results, the money in the pockets of citizens, the demand for other goods and services in the economy, the safety of our nation and people, the innovation and progress, couldn't be better achieved in other ways? So the question isn't whether we spend too little or too much on the military, but whether we are getting the best overall outcome for the limited resources that have to be tied up in doing things the way that we currently do.

dramaman

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Re: US National Debt - Some Real Numbers
« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2015, 02:49:01 PM »
Our current government spending and revenue are almost exactly the average of the last 50 years:



Your graph shows the deficit as a percentage of GDP. While I agree that is a useful metric to determine just how concerned we should be about the deficit, another useful metric is total debt as a percentage of GDP. This shows that we are nearing levels that we haven't seen since WWII.


dramaman

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Re: US National Debt - Some Real Numbers
« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2015, 02:57:12 PM »
My guess is that we will see an acceleration of debt over the next 15 years.   Not a return to the mean or even stay at our current level.   So yeah,  possibly in excess of 50 trillion by 2030.     If at some point the dems are able to get student loan debt thrown in the we are in much deeper.

So also, my prediction is that we will continue wars periodically over the next 15 years  --- there will be at least 2 significant recessions  --- real incomes will continue to slide --- healthcare costs will approach 40% of GDP ---  unemployment will continue to grow (we won't figure out how to distribute wealth with an economy not based on employment for another generation) --- interest rates will remain very low  --- medicare and SS will be pushed to age 72 --- the economic class divide will widen with the middle class pretty much a government dependent population.   Yeah,  My crystal ball is very warmed up today.

My crystal ball reveals that we will continue to see a deceleration of debt in the next 15 years. Any military actions will be limited in nature, nothing matching the combined Afghan & Iraq wars. We will have perhaps one very minor, short recession in the near term, followed by several years of growth and a longer recession sometime in the latter half. Even if a Democrat gets elected the next President, I don't see any major new spending or entitlement programs, despite the promises and plans that Clinton and Sanders trumpet. Even if a Republican gets elected, I don't see any major tax changes.

beltim

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Re: US National Debt - Some Real Numbers
« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2015, 03:11:27 PM »
Your graph shows the deficit as a percentage of GDP. While I agree that is a useful metric to determine just how concerned we should be about the deficit, another useful metric is total debt as a percentage of GDP. This shows that we are nearing levels that we haven't seen since WWII.

Yes, although that chart is a little misleading, because gross debt doesn't count the value of government bonds held by government agencies as assets.  When Social Security holds ~$3 trillion in government bonds, that's a significant difference.  I think it's maybe 17% of GDP?

That chart is like calculating net worth and including mortgage as a debt but not including the value of the house.

beltim

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Re: US National Debt - Some Real Numbers
« Reply #14 on: October 30, 2015, 03:18:07 PM »
The debt held by the public (a more meaningful measure) is at 74% of GDP:

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/45249

scottish

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Re: US National Debt - Some Real Numbers
« Reply #15 on: October 30, 2015, 03:32:46 PM »
I hope so.   If the debt (this applies to both Canada and US) continues to grow beyond the economy the government will eventually have to devalue the currency by other means than just inflation to address it.   But I just know nothing will change until there's a crisis.  Interest rates will then jump sky high because nobody's willing to risk purchasing government bonds.

Or am I being a drama king?

beltim

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Re: US National Debt - Some Real Numbers
« Reply #16 on: October 30, 2015, 03:40:55 PM »
I hope so.   If the debt (this applies to both Canada and US) continues to grow beyond the economy the government will eventually have to devalue the currency by other means than just inflation to address it.   But I just know nothing will change until there's a crisis.  Interest rates will then jump sky high because nobody's willing to risk purchasing government bonds.

Or am I being a drama king?

Hard to say.  The record of countries with debt levels higher than 100% of GDP is not good.  However, most of those countries had significant structural problems and few if any of the advantages the US has.  And Japan is doing okay with a debt level over 200% of GDP.

dramaman

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Re: US National Debt - Some Real Numbers
« Reply #17 on: October 30, 2015, 03:48:35 PM »
Your graph shows the deficit as a percentage of GDP. While I agree that is a useful metric to determine just how concerned we should be about the deficit, another useful metric is total debt as a percentage of GDP. This shows that we are nearing levels that we haven't seen since WWII.

Yes, although that chart is a little misleading, because gross debt doesn't count the value of government bonds held by government agencies as assets.  When Social Security holds ~$3 trillion in government bonds, that's a significant difference.  I think it's maybe 17% of GDP?

That chart is like calculating net worth and including mortgage as a debt but not including the value of the house.

Good observation. Although I wouldn't easily discount the amount owed to the SS Trust Fund. Yes, the bonds are assets, but those assets are cancelled out by future liabilities when the retirees start receiving SS.

beltim

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Re: US National Debt - Some Real Numbers
« Reply #18 on: October 30, 2015, 03:52:57 PM »
Your graph shows the deficit as a percentage of GDP. While I agree that is a useful metric to determine just how concerned we should be about the deficit, another useful metric is total debt as a percentage of GDP. This shows that we are nearing levels that we haven't seen since WWII.

Yes, although that chart is a little misleading, because gross debt doesn't count the value of government bonds held by government agencies as assets.  When Social Security holds ~$3 trillion in government bonds, that's a significant difference.  I think it's maybe 17% of GDP?

That chart is like calculating net worth and including mortgage as a debt but not including the value of the house.

Good observation. Although I wouldn't easily discount the amount owed to the SS Trust Fund. Yes, the bonds are assets, but those assets are cancelled out by future liabilities when the retirees start receiving SS.

I'm not discounting it - of course it's a liability.  It's just not accurate to only report one side of the balance sheet (liabilities) without reporting the other (assets).

We could of course talk about long-term liabilities as well, but that's a different axis of discussion entirely.

Telecaster

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Re: US National Debt - Some Real Numbers
« Reply #19 on: October 30, 2015, 05:19:14 PM »
I predict that once again our nation will change course and borrowing will slow down and even though we will still owe 18+ trillion dollars, folks will find that the sky hasn't fallen. That's because the true indicator of whether the debt is unmanageable is NOT when it reaches 1 trillion, 5 trillion, 18 trillion or even 100 TRILLION! The true indicator is when people stop valuing U.S. IOUs such that they stop lining up to give us money and interest rates will go up to sweeten the deal. Given how low current interest rates are, we are not even close to that point.

^ This.  The debt and deficit are problem.  But they are manageable problems.   I would say there is one other indicator:  That is, when the cost of debt service (interest) becomes so large it crushes the federal budget.   But right now, interest on the debt is very manageable compared to GDP. It would be nice if it was lower, sure.  But it is not this giant boogey man that is about to eat us.  Not even close.

As you point out in your earlier post, all we need is a little adult leadership.   No new spending without either cuts somewhere else or new taxes to pay for it.  Which is what we should be doing anyway.  And maybe, gulp, a bit of a tax hike on top of all that.   If we do that, the long term debt probably will be perfectly fine. 

We did this in the 1990s, it is not that difficult.   



Bob W

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Re: US National Debt - Some Real Numbers
« Reply #20 on: November 02, 2015, 09:20:00 AM »
My guess is that we will see an acceleration of debt over the next 15 years.   Not a return to the mean or even stay at our current level.   So yeah,  possibly in excess of 50 trillion by 2030.     If at some point the dems are able to get student loan debt thrown in the we are in much deeper.

So also, my prediction is that we will continue wars periodically over the next 15 years  --- there will be at least 2 significant recessions  --- real incomes will continue to slide --- healthcare costs will approach 40% of GDP ---  unemployment will continue to grow (we won't figure out how to distribute wealth with an economy not based on employment for another generation) --- interest rates will remain very low  --- medicare and SS will be pushed to age 72 --- the economic class divide will widen with the middle class pretty much a government dependent population.   Yeah,  My crystal ball is very warmed up today.

My crystal ball reveals that we will continue to see a deceleration of debt in the next 15 years. Any military actions will be limited in nature, nothing matching the combined Afghan & Iraq wars. We will have perhaps one very minor, short recession in the near term, followed by several years of growth and a longer recession sometime in the latter half. Even if a Democrat gets elected the next President, I don't see any major new spending or entitlement programs, despite the promises and plans that Clinton and Sanders trumpet. Even if a Republican gets elected, I don't see any major tax changes.

Hmmm?  Where was your crystal ball manufactured?   

It is fun to guess.  The reality is that anything can happen from insurrection,  nuclear war, to  biological warfare etc...  One hopes for a return to the 50s and 60s though.   My other guess is that the Middle East will become even more of a cluster fuck than it already is.   Should we care?   Probably not as much as the media would have us to believe.   We are pretty much only dependent on North American energy at this point.   

I would prefer to error on the side of caution with national debt.  A country with no debt is a country that can overcome many things.  A country deeply in debt has limited options.   

dramaman

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Re: US National Debt - Some Real Numbers
« Reply #21 on: November 02, 2015, 10:41:27 AM »
My guess is that we will see an acceleration of debt over the next 15 years.   Not a return to the mean or even stay at our current level.   So yeah,  possibly in excess of 50 trillion by 2030.     If at some point the dems are able to get student loan debt thrown in the we are in much deeper.

So also, my prediction is that we will continue wars periodically over the next 15 years  --- there will be at least 2 significant recessions  --- real incomes will continue to slide --- healthcare costs will approach 40% of GDP ---  unemployment will continue to grow (we won't figure out how to distribute wealth with an economy not based on employment for another generation) --- interest rates will remain very low  --- medicare and SS will be pushed to age 72 --- the economic class divide will widen with the middle class pretty much a government dependent population.   Yeah,  My crystal ball is very warmed up today.

My crystal ball reveals that we will continue to see a deceleration of debt in the next 15 years. Any military actions will be limited in nature, nothing matching the combined Afghan & Iraq wars. We will have perhaps one very minor, short recession in the near term, followed by several years of growth and a longer recession sometime in the latter half. Even if a Democrat gets elected the next President, I don't see any major new spending or entitlement programs, despite the promises and plans that Clinton and Sanders trumpet. Even if a Republican gets elected, I don't see any major tax changes.

Hmmm?  Where was your crystal ball manufactured?   

It is fun to guess.  The reality is that anything can happen from insurrection,  nuclear war, to  biological warfare etc...  One hopes for a return to the 50s and 60s though.   My other guess is that the Middle East will become even more of a cluster fuck than it already is.   Should we care?   Probably not as much as the media would have us to believe.   We are pretty much only dependent on North American energy at this point.   

I would prefer to error on the side of caution with national debt.  A country with no debt is a country that can overcome many things.  A country deeply in debt has limited options.

My crystal ball was made from the Frobozz Magic Ball Company (100 nerd points to anyone who can identify the reference) :)

Yes, anything can happen. You hope for a return to the 50's and 60's? Geez, those are mighty rose colored glasses. Those were dangerous, tumultuous times -- wars in the middle east, the Suez Canal Crisis, Soviets got the A-bomb and H-bomb, Korean and Vietnam Wars, Cuban Missile Crisis, a President assassinated, Civil Rights protests... its a wonder we didn't blow up the world.

I think every period has its challenges. I agree the Middle East will continue to be a mess and who know what might happen. Still, barring some incredibly super crazy thing on the same scale as 9/11, over a decade of wars, I don't see the American Public having the stomach for any new extended military commitments.


scottish

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Re: US National Debt - Some Real Numbers
« Reply #22 on: December 06, 2015, 05:08:50 PM »
It was Zork, wasn't it?    It's really hard to remember that far back...

dramaman

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Re: US National Debt - Some Real Numbers
« Reply #23 on: December 07, 2015, 06:08:03 AM »
My crystal ball was made from the Frobozz Magic Ball Company (100 nerd points to anyone who can identify the reference) :)

It was Zork, wasn't it?    It's really hard to remember that far back...

Give that poster 100 Nerd Points! Yes, Zork introduced the Great Underground Empire in which could be found many products manufactured by the Frobozz Magic [insert product name] Company.