Unintended Consequences: Migrant farm workers not showing up for citrus harvest

[PeteD01]

Looks like the agricultural sector in California is facing a crippling labor situation.
It appears that thousands of agricultural workers (between 1/2 to 1 million total in California and over 80% undocumented) are not showing up for the citrus harvest out of fear after several ICE raids in the Central Valley.
The harvest may be lost because of this undeclared but de facto strike.

So here we are less than a week into the Trump administration and they have already caused a massive walkout.

Interestingly, the walkout is in response to adversarial political actions and, though informal, is actually widespread collective action.
That the walkout/strike is in response to increased activity of ICE/La Migra gives it the flavor of a political strike.
In contrast to purely economic strikes, political strikes have a tendency to spread because the issues involved are often shared by otherwise disparate groups in society.

Localized political strikes can be a stepping stone towards a general strike, especially when the effects are starting to be felt throughout society.

This is a difficult situation for an administration as there is no easy way out.
Giving in by walking back unpopular policies, further collective action can become more likely - not least because successful collective action can become a catalyst for efforts at organization.

Clamping down on a political strike of sector paralyzing dimension is very difficult even under normal conditions.
The situation in California is not amenable to strike breaking as there is no conceivable way to force thousands of undocumented workers to return to work if they do not want to.
   
Curious to see how the Trump administration is going to manage this once the effects are felt at the grocery register.

[ixtap]

It may be unintended (ie, certainly not going to lower grocery prices), but entirely predictable. When GA and AZ tried to crack down years ago, this is exactly what happened. Crops went to ruin because they couldn't find enough workers and it was devastating for the farm owners in many cases.

[ChpBstrd]

Is there any sign that the farm workers are acting in an organized way?

It could just be everybody for themselves trying to avoid arrest.

[MrGreen]

There is quite a difference between an intentional strike and people hiding in their homes out of fear.

[sixwings]

TBF, this situation is kind of shitty in either direction. American consumerism and the supply of cheap food relies on undocumented workers working for unlivable wages in often terrible conditions. However, without it, food costs skyrocket and people starve. We've been largely turning a blind eye to the former so we can have the latter.

This is just another win for the environment IMO. American consumerism, driven by cheap prices, has been the most destructive force on the planet over the last 70 years. Nothing like high costs and an economy in shambles to kill consumerism. Also all those fruits and vegetables will compost on the soil and maybe start to replenish some of the top soil that has been degrading over the last 70 years. Trump is going to be the best environmental president of our lifetime.

[bacchi]

TBF, this situation is kind of shitty in either direction. American consumerism and the supply of cheap food relies on undocumented workers working for unlivable wages in often terrible conditions. However, without it, food costs skyrocket and people starve. We've been largely turning a blind eye to the former so we can have the latter.

This is just another win for the environment IMO. American consumerism, driven by cheap prices, has been the most destructive force on the planet over the last 70 years. Nothing like high costs and an economy in shambles to kill consumerism. Also all those fruits and vegetables will compost on the soil and maybe start to replenish some of the top soil that has been degrading over the last 70 years. Trump is going to be the best environmental president of our lifetime.

Less food and a worsening economy also means a lower birth rate, which helps the environment.

[sixwings]

TBF, this situation is kind of shitty in either direction. American consumerism and the supply of cheap food relies on undocumented workers working for unlivable wages in often terrible conditions. However, without it, food costs skyrocket and people starve. We've been largely turning a blind eye to the former so we can have the latter.

This is just another win for the environment IMO. American consumerism, driven by cheap prices, has been the most destructive force on the planet over the last 70 years. Nothing like high costs and an economy in shambles to kill consumerism. Also all those fruits and vegetables will compost on the soil and maybe start to replenish some of the top soil that has been degrading over the last 70 years. Trump is going to be the best environmental president of our lifetime.

Less food and a worsening economy also means a lower birth rate, which helps the environment.

Great point! And of course the trucking companies will all be stalled since there’s nothing to transport which is great. Sucks to be a trucker but they probably overwhelmingly voted Trump. Who knew Trump was such an environmentalist!

[PeteD01]

Is there any sign that the farm workers are acting in an organized way?

It could just be everybody for themselves trying to avoid arrest.

It's not that those things are following a predetermined sequence - sometimes, or even often, spontaneous collective response precedes organization.

Also, any organized effort would have to be clandestine as we are dealing with an undocumented population.

The thing that has changed is that, before the workers were targeted specifically as a group, individual workers could reasonably expect to avoid arrest.
So what we are seeing here is not necessarily an organized effort but nevertheless a collective response due to the government of dunces giving them a common cause and a taste of labor power.

Individual workers have no power - as a group they can cripple a local economy, a fact that cannot possibly be missed after seeing what's happening.

Trump’s Immigration Threats Are Already Wrecking the Food Industry
Ellie Quinlan Houghtaling
Wed, January 22, 2025

Bakersfield, California, saw a massive drop off in the number of field workers showing up for work last week after Border Patrol agents in unmarked Chevy Suburbans rounded up and detained immigrants in the area, profiling individuals they believed to be field workers, reported CalMatters.* The end result: acres of unpicked oranges roasting in the California sun at the height of the season.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-immigration-plans-already-wrecking-204903324.html

[Morning Glory]

It may be unintended (ie, certainly not going to lower grocery prices), but entirely predictable. When GA and AZ tried to crack down years ago, this is exactly what happened. Crops went to ruin because they couldn't find enough workers and it was devastating for the farm owners in many cases.

I think the economic damage is completely intentional and that's why he's primarily targeting blue states.

[GuitarStv]

It may be unintended (ie, certainly not going to lower grocery prices), but entirely predictable. When GA and AZ tried to crack down years ago, this is exactly what happened. Crops went to ruin because they couldn't find enough workers and it was devastating for the farm owners in many cases.

I think the economic damage is completely intentional and that's why he's primarily targeting blue states.

I agree.  Trump is a vengeful king.

[RetiredAt63]

It may be unintended (ie, certainly not going to lower grocery prices), but entirely predictable. When GA and AZ tried to crack down years ago, this is exactly what happened. Crops went to ruin because they couldn't find enough workers and it was devastating for the farm owners in many cases.

I think the economic damage is completely intentional and that's why he's primarily targeting blue states.

Are the truckers blue?  They will be hurt as mentioned up-thread.

I'm sure farm workers in other states will be a lot more wary now, and disappear at the first hint of activity.

His actions about FEMA are also most likely aimed at California because of the fires, but which states get the hurricanes?  Mostly Red ones.

[sixwings]

It may be unintended (ie, certainly not going to lower grocery prices), but entirely predictable. When GA and AZ tried to crack down years ago, this is exactly what happened. Crops went to ruin because they couldn't find enough workers and it was devastating for the farm owners in many cases.

I think the economic damage is completely intentional and that's why he's primarily targeting blue states.

Are the truckers blue?  They will be hurt as mentioned up-thread.

I'm sure farm workers in other states will be a lot more wary now, and disappear at the first hint of activity.

His actions about FEMA are also most likely aimed at California because of the fires, but which states get the hurricanes?  Mostly Red ones.

A lot of those areas are red counties though. Like didnt the central valley go for Trump?

[ChpBstrd]

Suppose the farmers or their states decided to protest the federal government's actions. What legal leg would they have to stand on? None it seems.

And yet this whole economic system was built upon a reliance on an illegal practice that was wink-wink nod-nodded for decades because there was so much money at stake. The laws weren't enforced because farmers, builders, restaurateurs, hoteliers, ranchers, and meat processors were making money and making donations. If they were forced to pay wages to attract citizens as workers, the cost of all these things would probably double or triple.

The logical solution to benefit everyone would be to have a work visa system by which millions of foreign workers could exist in the country legally, enabling the US to continue enjoying lower inflation than a closed system would allow. But then "they're takin' our jobs" so we prefer to live in a fiction where they aren't supposed to be here so nobody is at fault for our jealousies and economic dissatisfactions.

How would you like to pick spinach for 10-12 hours a day in the desert sun?

[ixtap]

Logic just doesn't help. Every time someone complains to me about illegal immigration, I ask why they support the party trying to minimize the options for legal immigration, rather than the party trying to enact policies to process the immigrants. They either walk away or call me stupid.

[GilesMM]

It may be unintended (ie, certainly not going to lower grocery prices), but entirely predictable. When GA and AZ tried to crack down years ago, this is exactly what happened. Crops went to ruin because they couldn't find enough workers and it was devastating for the farm owners in many cases.

I think the economic damage is completely intentional and that's why he's primarily targeting blue states.

Are the truckers blue?  They will be hurt as mentioned up-thread.

I'm sure farm workers in other states will be a lot more wary now, and disappear at the first hint of activity.

His actions about FEMA are also most likely aimed at California because of the fires, but which states get the hurricanes?  Mostly Red ones.

A lot of those areas are red counties though. Like didnt the central valley go for Trump?

Yes, but he colors the whole state blue.


https://www.politico.com/2024-election/results/california/

[Morning Glory]

It may be unintended (ie, certainly not going to lower grocery prices), but entirely predictable. When GA and AZ tried to crack down years ago, this is exactly what happened. Crops went to ruin because they couldn't find enough workers and it was devastating for the farm owners in many cases.

I think the economic damage is completely intentional and that's why he's primarily targeting blue states.

Are the truckers blue?  They will be hurt as mentioned up-thread.

I'm sure farm workers in other states will be a lot more wary now, and disappear at the first hint of activity.

His actions about FEMA are also most likely aimed at California because of the fires, but which states get the hurricanes?  Mostly Red ones.

A lot of those areas are red counties though. Like didnt the central valley go for Trump?

Yes, but he colors the whole state blue.


https://www.politico.com/2024-election/results/california/

And I don't think he cares who he hurts at this point.

[reeshau]

The logical solution to benefit everyone would be to have a work visa system by which millions of foreign workers could exist in the country legally, enabling the US to continue enjoying lower inflation than a closed system would allow. But then "they're takin' our jobs" so we prefer to live in a fiction where they aren't supposed to be here so nobody is at fault for our jealousies and economic dissatisfactions.

How would you like to pick spinach for 10-12 hours a day in the desert sun?

There is such a program.  Only, the quota was just 310k in 2023.
https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-25-106389#:~:text=From%20fiscal%20year%20(FY)%202018,2A%20visas%20in%20FY%202023.

My favorite testimony on this issue (now 14 years old!) Is from Stephen Colbert, who testified in character.
https://youtu.be/ewPburLEZyY?si=iuGGYuKRPamN0mHq

Still my favorite line: "most soil is at ground level."

[HPstache]

Isn't the purpose of being in in the US illegally, to work?  Seems like an odd strategy that won't last very long.

[rocketpj]

I suspect this is only the beginning of the chaos as all the fantasies and imaginings of the MAGAs collide with reality.  It's a shame the price of oranges and other produce will go up, but TBH as a Canadian I doubt I'll be buying much of anything from the US after the submoronic tariffs are enacted at the end of the month.

This is what one hand is doing, the other hand will of course be going to extremes to stifle all information or evidence about the negative impacts of their policy decisions. 

Meanwhile, millions of humans will suffer.  USA USA USA!

[SunnyDays]

I suspect this is only the beginning of the chaos as all the fantasies and imaginings of the MAGAs collide with reality.  It's a shame the price of oranges and other produce will go up, but TBH as a Canadian I doubt I'll be buying much of anything from the US after the submoronic tariffs are enacted at the end of the month.

This is what one hand is doing, the other hand will of course be going to extremes to stifle all information or evidence about the negative impacts of their policy decisions. 

Meanwhile, millions of humans will suffer.  USA USA USA!

Tariffs or not, I will be NOT knowingly be buying American anything.  I’m not supporting that regime.

[ixtap]

Isn't the purpose of being in in the US illegally, to work?  Seems like an odd strategy that won't last very long.

Sometimes. Sometimes the purpose of coming to the US is to not be killed by violent cartels or regimes, working just helps makes life more comfortable.

[GuitarStv]

I suspect this is only the beginning of the chaos as all the fantasies and imaginings of the MAGAs collide with reality.  It's a shame the price of oranges and other produce will go up, but TBH as a Canadian I doubt I'll be buying much of anything from the US after the submoronic tariffs are enacted at the end of the month.

This is what one hand is doing, the other hand will of course be going to extremes to stifle all information or evidence about the negative impacts of their policy decisions. 

Meanwhile, millions of humans will suffer.  USA USA USA!

Tariffs or not, I will be NOT knowingly be buying American anything.  I’m not supporting that regime.

I've been hearing this a lot lately.

[Cassie]

Once the felon was reelected I bought a year’s worth of paper products, toiletries, cleaning supplies and 4 months of coffee and meat. My car was 17 years old so I replaced it. I knew prices would skyrocket and I also didn’t want to contribute to his economy. The sooner things turn to garbage the better the chance that people will vote smarter in 2026. Nevada has a very large immigrant population. I expect we will be on the raid list soon enough unfortunately.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

I suspect this is only the beginning of the chaos as all the fantasies and imaginings of the MAGAs collide with reality.  It's a shame the price of oranges and other produce will go up, but TBH as a Canadian I doubt I'll be buying much of anything from the US after the submoronic tariffs are enacted at the end of the month.

This is what one hand is doing, the other hand will of course be going to extremes to stifle all information or evidence about the negative impacts of their policy decisions. 

Meanwhile, millions of humans will suffer.  USA USA USA!

Tariffs or not, I will be NOT knowingly be buying American anything.  I’m not supporting that regime.

I've been hearing this a lot lately.

Trump won a democratic vote - he is not a "regime".  And you will be buying American imports every time you fill your car with gas.

[blue_green_sparks]

I suspect this is only the beginning of the chaos as all the fantasies and imaginings of the MAGAs collide with reality.  It's a shame the price of oranges and other produce will go up, but TBH as a Canadian I doubt I'll be buying much of anything from the US after the submoronic tariffs are enacted at the end of the month.

This is what one hand is doing, the other hand will of course be going to extremes to stifle all information or evidence about the negative impacts of their policy decisions. 

Meanwhile, millions of humans will suffer.  USA USA USA!

Tariffs or not, I will be NOT knowingly be buying American anything.  I’m not supporting that regime.

I've been hearing this a lot lately.

Trump won a democratic vote - he is not a "regime".  And you will be buying American imports every time you fill your car with gas.

With a billionaire campaign contributor who controls a huge social media platform complete with political targeting algorithms, receives government contracts and threatens to levy opposition to the future campaigns of legislators (unless they bend a knee), the terms "democratic vote" and "fair market" mean little or nothing to me anymore.

Now one of the richest men in the world has an office in the White House as well. About half of nation's wealth represented by a few supportive individuals at the inauguration. The big time "fair market" advocates are suddenly silent, LOL. Yeah, is this what the founders envisioned? Open talk of retribution against political opponents. Pardoning of perpetrators of a violent overthrow attempt. 'Regime' sounds about right to me.

[PeteD01]

...

Now one of the richest men in the world has an office in the White House as well.

...

Musk has apparently been denied an office in the White House and is not reporting to trump anymore - I'd say this together with Ramaswamy's exile in Ohio was fairly predictable:

Trump’s ‘ice maiden’ freezes Elon Musk out of West Wing
Susie Wiles, the president’s chief of staff, has denied the billionaire touted as ‘the real vice-president’ a permanent office in the heart of the White House
David Charter , Washington
Friday January 24 2025

Wiles was sitting in the Oval Office on a chair to the side of the Resolute desk when Trump was asked by a reporter during a signing session for executive orders if Musk would be getting an office in the West Wing. “No,” Trump said. “He’s getting an office for about 20 people that we’re hiring to make sure that these [savings] get implemented.”

His chief of staff remained poker-faced but this marked a significant victory. There was relief among long-term Trump backers on the West Wing staff who resent Musk’s rapid ascent after declaring his support only last summer.

There was another sign of Wiles’s determination to put some distance between Musk and Trump in the executive order setting up Doge, which stated that its chief administrator must report to her.

Nobody knows better than Wiles, with her long experience of managing men with big egos, just how hard it will be to restrain Musk, who continues to make frequent visits to the West Wing. However, her moves this week asserted her role as gatekeeper to the president, even for the world’s richest man, who has been omnipresent at Trump’s side after moving himself into Mar-a-Lago at the end of last year.

https://www.thetimes.com/us/american-politics/article/susie-wiles-chief-of-staff-elon-musk-wp0pfkxrx

[blue_green_sparks]

...

Now one of the richest men in the world has an office in the White House as well.

...

Musk has apparently been denied an office in the White House and is not reporting to trump anymore - I'd say this together with Ramaswamy's exile in Ohio was fairly predictable:

Trump’s ‘ice maiden’ freezes Elon Musk out of West Wing
Susie Wiles, the president’s chief of staff, has denied the billionaire touted as ‘the real vice-president’ a permanent office in the heart of the White House
David Charter , Washington
Friday January 24 2025

Wiles was sitting in the Oval Office on a chair to the side of the Resolute desk when Trump was asked by a reporter during a signing session for executive orders if Musk would be getting an office in the West Wing. “No,” Trump said. “He’s getting an office for about 20 people that we’re hiring to make sure that these [savings] get implemented.”

His chief of staff remained poker-faced but this marked a significant victory. There was relief among long-term Trump backers on the West Wing staff who resent Musk’s rapid ascent after declaring his support only last summer.

There was another sign of Wiles’s determination to put some distance between Musk and Trump in the executive order setting up Doge, which stated that its chief administrator must report to her.

Nobody knows better than Wiles, with her long experience of managing men with big egos, just how hard it will be to restrain Musk, who continues to make frequent visits to the West Wing. However, her moves this week asserted her role as gatekeeper to the president, even for the world’s richest man, who has been omnipresent at Trump’s side after moving himself into Mar-a-Lago at the end of last year.

https://www.thetimes.com/us/american-politics/article/susie-wiles-chief-of-staff-elon-musk-wp0pfkxrx

Could all be "just for appearances", especially after "the salute". Do they really want Musk-X turning on them? One might conclude all this power drama seems to be the electrolytes us Americans crave.

[sonofsven]

...

Now one of the richest men in the world has an office in the White House as well.

...

Musk has apparently been denied an office in the White House and is not reporting to trump anymore - I'd say this together with Ramaswamy's exile in Ohio was fairly predictable:

Trump’s ‘ice maiden’ freezes Elon Musk out of West Wing
Susie Wiles, the president’s chief of staff, has denied the billionaire touted as ‘the real vice-president’ a permanent office in the heart of the White House
David Charter , Washington
Friday January 24 2025

Wiles was sitting in the Oval Office on a chair to the side of the Resolute desk when Trump was asked by a reporter during a signing session for executive orders if Musk would be getting an office in the West Wing. “No,” Trump said. “He’s getting an office for about 20 people that we’re hiring to make sure that these [savings] get implemented.”

His chief of staff remained poker-faced but this marked a significant victory. There was relief among long-term Trump backers on the West Wing staff who resent Musk’s rapid ascent after declaring his support only last summer.

There was another sign of Wiles’s determination to put some distance between Musk and Trump in the executive order setting up Doge, which stated that its chief administrator must report to her.

Nobody knows better than Wiles, with her long experience of managing men with big egos, just how hard it will be to restrain Musk, who continues to make frequent visits to the West Wing. However, her moves this week asserted her role as gatekeeper to the president, even for the world’s richest man, who has been omnipresent at Trump’s side after moving himself into Mar-a-Lago at the end of last year.

https://www.thetimes.com/us/american-politics/article/susie-wiles-chief-of-staff-elon-musk-wp0pfkxrx

Could all be "just for appearances", especially after "the salute". Do they really want Musk-X turning on them? One might conclude all this power drama seems to be the electrolytes us Americans crave.

Lol,  Brawndo!

[PeteD01]

...

Could all be "just for appearances", especially after "the salute". Do they really want Musk-X turning on them? One might conclude all this power drama seems to be the electrolytes us Americans crave.

I don't think Trump cares one bit about the Nazi salute or Musk's appearance at a neo-Nazi infested party event in Germany.

This is what angers Trump angry because it exposes his weakness - of course, having to physically (another building) and organizationally (no reporting to the president directly but to his chief of staff) exposes his weakness even more. I guess that's the best they could do for now to keep easily influenced Trump from being pushed around publicly:

Trump staff ‘furious’ after Musk trashes AI project
“It’s clear he has abused the proximity to the president,” said one ally of the president.
Dasha Burns and Holly Otterbein
01/23/2025

A White House official said Musk “very much” got over his skis when the tech tycoon launched a daylong screed against the AI project. One Trump ally said Musk abused his closeness to the president. Another Republican close to the White House went further, saying Trump’s staff is “furious” over Musk using his massive social media platform to pour cold water on the infrastructure deal that Trump called “tremendous” and “monumental” just a day prior.

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/01/23/trump-staff-musk-conflict-00200311

[Log]

Well put, @ChpBstrd - running the country on "wink-wink, nod-nod" has been a questionable way to do things. Ideally, with a better functioning legislature, we would have had this debate decades ago, out in the open. Now, deciding what our actual policy should be is going to be much more disruptive. Total kludgeocracy.

Logic just doesn't help. Every time someone complains to me about illegal immigration, I ask why they support the party trying to minimize the options for legal immigration, rather than the party trying to enact policies to process the immigrants. They either walk away or call me stupid.

While disagreeing, I can empathize with their perspective and why they feel obligated to play that particular rhetorical game. They actually just want less immigration, but they know if they say that then you'll just call them a racist. They disagree with you that it is racist, don't consider themselves racist, and don't like being called a racist. So they aren't going to walk right into the version of the conversation where you get to call them racist and "win."

(Not saying you would literally call them a racist, take "you" in this scenario as generic "red person's version of what a smug liberal is like.")

Isn't the purpose of being in in the US illegally, to work?  Seems like an odd strategy that won't last very long.

I think some people might be seeing this as "haha, stupid Republicans walking into obvious consequences for their actions!" Even the title of this thread calls this "unintended consequences," but I think that's completely off the mark. This is what Trump intended.

You are absolutely right, migrants are here to work because they can earn more money here than in their home countries. If they can't earn money here anymore, many will choose to leave. The economic and humanitarian consequences will be dire, but that is the tradeoff that the Republican administration chose. They know they do not have the ICE personnel to do the level of deportations they want, so they are aiming to create economic conditions for illegal migrants that will motivate them to engage in "self-deportation." Republicans have talked about this strategy for a long time, but the "Big Business"/"Chamber of Commerce" wing of the party usually took the reins and stopped them from seriously pursuing it because of the economic consequences. Now the adults in the room are gone, and they're going for it.

---

I think there is a huge empathy gap between Blue and Red on immigration, and it would do us all good to engage in a little perspective-taking and work to close that gap. We don't have to agree with them, but it would do the country good for us to understand that people from more parochial places are genuinely disturbed by the cultural change that comes from large swathes of people coming in with a different culture, speaking a different language, not assimilating into their communities, and many people who are disturbed by these things are not racists or neo-nazis. Those of us from more cosmopolitan backgrounds are operating from fundamentally different values and assumptions about the world, and expecting everyone to see things the way we do is just naive.

[SunnyDays]

I suspect this is only the beginning of the chaos as all the fantasies and imaginings of the MAGAs collide with reality.  It's a shame the price of oranges and other produce will go up, but TBH as a Canadian I doubt I'll be buying much of anything from the US after the submoronic tariffs are enacted at the end of the month.

This is what one hand is doing, the other hand will of course be going to extremes to stifle all information or evidence about the negative impacts of their policy decisions. 

Meanwhile, millions of humans will suffer.  USA USA USA!

Tariffs or not, I will be NOT knowingly be buying American anything.  I’m not supporting that regime.

I've been hearing this a lot lately.

Trump won a democratic vote - he is not a "regime".  And you will be buying American imports every time you fill your car with gas.

Actually, my province imports gas from other Canadian provinces.


Do you honestly believe that what is going on right now is democratic?  If you do, perhaps your opinion will change over the next 4 years.  Or more, if Trump has his way.

[Heckler]

Who’s gonna pick your oranges indeed.  Best of luck, we’ll fly them in from Spain.

[crocheted_stache]

Also all those fruits and vegetables will compost on the soil and maybe start to replenish some of the top soil that has been degrading over the last 70 years.

I know this is beside the point, but there are better ways to maintain and replenish top soil than letting crops (or off-cuts or stubble) rot in place. That's a recipe for pests and disease. Even in my backyard garden, I remove fruit that's not edible and any foliage that's looking bad or off. Once upon a time, that kind of stuff might be fed to livestock. Maybe you'd just turn the pigs, goats, or chickens loose in the orchard to clean up at the end of the season. These days, you might take the waste products somewhere else for composting hot enough to kill most of the pathogens.

Also, I have several citrus trees. They don't all drop their fruit. Sometimes it just hangs on the trees and gets overripe and eventually decays. Other crops stop producing when you stop harvesting. Green beans, which are called green because they're eaten when under-ripe, will hang there and mature, instead of the plant making new ones.

So unfortunately, there may be longer-term consequences of not harvesting than just a little extra compost.

There are many things we should change about the way we do agriculture, but letting crops rot in the fields is not one of them.

[GuitarStv]

Also all those fruits and vegetables will compost on the soil and maybe start to replenish some of the top soil that has been degrading over the last 70 years.

I know this is beside the point, but there are better ways to maintain and replenish top soil than letting crops (or off-cuts or stubble) rot in place. That's a recipe for pests and disease. Even in my backyard garden, I remove fruit that's not edible and any foliage that's looking bad or off. Once upon a time, that kind of stuff might be fed to livestock. Maybe you'd just turn the pigs, goats, or chickens loose in the orchard to clean up at the end of the season. These days, you might take the waste products somewhere else for composting hot enough to kill most of the pathogens.

Also, I have several citrus trees. They don't all drop their fruit. Sometimes it just hangs on the trees and gets overripe and eventually decays. Other crops stop producing when you stop harvesting. Green beans, which are called green because they're eaten when under-ripe, will hang there and mature, instead of the plant making new ones.

So unfortunately, there may be longer-term consequences of not harvesting than just a little extra compost.

There are many things we should change about the way we do agriculture, but letting crops rot in the fields is not one of them.

Agreed.

My dad follows careful crop rotations to reduce at least some of the damaging impact of sustained monoculture farming.  He has also been very interested in interplanting strategies (where more than one crop is seeded into a field at the same time - reducing yields of both crops, but can be more economically viable because of how much less fertilizer and additional chemicals are necessary to keep the crops healthy) recently.

Orchards are a bit different since you can't disc everything down and start with new plants every year, but removing windfall apples and following good mulching strategies is a big part of keeping them healthy.  I don't know if you can interplant in an orchard to keep things healthy as well, I should ask him.

[Villanelle]

I see this has been covered, but what I came here to post was a question about "Unintended Consequences".  Migrants not being able (or being afraid to) work isn't an *unintended* consequence.

The Republican administration doesn't care about the farmers who lose their farms because their product rots on the vine and tree.  And the don't care about the tractor repair guy who goes bankrupt when that farmer no longer bring him business or the electrician who loses his home because the tractor repair guy can't afford that shop expansion he'd planned.  And they don't care about the average "70%er" American who skips lunch every day so she can afford to feed her kids now that the price of oranges and all other groceries is up 15%.  (Yes, she can and probably will skip the oranges, which will be up more than 15%, but when everything is more expensive, youcant' switch you way out of it.  And when fruit and veggies are up due to no harvesters, and meat is up due to no processers, it's the highly processed foods that will likely be least unaffordable, so when her kids eat Pringles and off-brand powdered Mac and Cheese, I'm *sure* no one will judge them for it and will be sympathetic when the family's medical expenses increase.  /s)

All they care about is getting the brown people out of the U.S.A.  And making it so they can't work her without fear of being locked in a cage is a great way to make them "self-deport". 

But let us also remember that while plenty of those brown people are here because they want to make a better life for themselves and their family--oh the horror!--many of the are here because they face persecution, torture, or death in their home countries.  So it's not entirely accurate to just frame it as "they are here to make money", when many are here to asylum and doing that illegally is faster and feels more secure, ironically, than going through legal channels and rolling the dice that they are accepted. 

[sixwings]

I see this has been covered, but what I came here to post was a question about "Unintended Consequences".  Migrants not being able (or being afraid to) work isn't an *unintended* consequence.

The Republican administration doesn't care about the farmers who lose their farms because their product rots on the vine and tree.  And the don't care about the tractor repair guy who goes bankrupt when that farmer no longer bring him business or the electrician who loses his home because the tractor repair guy can't afford that shop expansion he'd planned.  And they don't care about the average "70%er" American who skips lunch every day so she can afford to feed her kids now that the price of oranges and all other groceries is up 15%.  (Yes, she can and probably will skip the oranges, which will be up more than 15%, but when everything is more expensive, youcant' switch you way out of it.  And when fruit and veggies are up due to no harvesters, and meat is up due to no processers, it's the highly processed foods that will likely be least unaffordable, so when her kids eat Pringles and off-brand powdered Mac and Cheese, I'm *sure* no one will judge them for it and will be sympathetic when the family's medical expenses increase.  /s)

All they care about is getting the brown people out of the U.S.A.  And making it so they can't work her without fear of being locked in a cage is a great way to make them "self-deport". 

But let us also remember that while plenty of those brown people are here because they want to make a better life for themselves and their family--oh the horror!--many of the are here because they face persecution, torture, or death in their home countries.  So it's not entirely accurate to just frame it as "they are here to make money", when many are here to asylum and doing that illegally is faster and feels more secure, ironically, than going through legal channels and rolling the dice that they are accepted.

TBF, bankrupting farmers so they have to sell their land to billionaires at fire-sale prices is probably a very intended consequence under this administration. The entire administration is just a giant smash and grab. Force independent and smaller farm operations into bankruptcy so the billionaires with capital can buy it all and put america's food production into the hands of a very small number of elite. This has been ongoing for some time and Trump is trying to speed run it.

Once the independent farm operations have been sold to the rich the republicans will probably stop caring about immigrants working on farms and they may even start to encourage it.

[bacchi]

Many of the farms in the Central Valley are owned by a handful of very rich owners, like the Resnick family. They've just run headfirst into the populist wing of the GOP.

I doubt there's a secret plan behind the obvious one, at least from the main players. Some of the WH administration are xenophobes, like Trump and Miller, and some are doing it for power, like Trump and Vance. That doesn't mean that some involved don't see the potential for gain, like Trump, Musk, and Zuck, but they're not in a clandestine meeting discussing how to bankrupt small farmers.

[PeteD01]

I see this has been covered, but what I came here to post was a question about "Unintended Consequences".  Migrants not being able (or being afraid to) work isn't an *unintended* consequence.

...

The unintended consequence of the widely publicized ICE crackdown is the widely publicized danger of a crippled food supply because of undocumented migrant workers collectively not showing up for work with the employers having no legal leverage to enforce non-existing work contracts and the undocumented status of the workers.

The ability of the undocumented agricultural workforce to cripple an essential industry nationwide goes counter to the narrative that sees this workforce as disenfranchised and powerless - to the contrary, the, by now widely known, dependency of the US on this workforce is a vulnerability that translates into anything but powerlessness.

The unique situation that might develop is that public anger resulting from the economic impact is unlikely to direct itself at the workers, or even the employers, but at the government.

Bottom line is that a workforce that can refuse to work and cripple an economy and that is not subject to labor laws does have leverage - they aren't slaves after all.
Add to that the fact that the workers actually want to work but the government is preventing it and you know who will be blamed.

So one of the unintended consequences is that the government finds itself in a labor dispute of sorts with a de facto stand-off with the agricultural workforce and a difficult to manage PR situation on the horizon.

[Villanelle]

I see this has been covered, but what I came here to post was a question about "Unintended Consequences".  Migrants not being able (or being afraid to) work isn't an *unintended* consequence.

The Republican administration doesn't care about the farmers who lose their farms because their product rots on the vine and tree.  And the don't care about the tractor repair guy who goes bankrupt when that farmer no longer bring him business or the electrician who loses his home because the tractor repair guy can't afford that shop expansion he'd planned.  And they don't care about the average "70%er" American who skips lunch every day so she can afford to feed her kids now that the price of oranges and all other groceries is up 15%.  (Yes, she can and probably will skip the oranges, which will be up more than 15%, but when everything is more expensive, youcant' switch you way out of it.  And when fruit and veggies are up due to no harvesters, and meat is up due to no processers, it's the highly processed foods that will likely be least unaffordable, so when her kids eat Pringles and off-brand powdered Mac and Cheese, I'm *sure* no one will judge them for it and will be sympathetic when the family's medical expenses increase.  /s)

All they care about is getting the brown people out of the U.S.A.  And making it so they can't work her without fear of being locked in a cage is a great way to make them "self-deport". 

But let us also remember that while plenty of those brown people are here because they want to make a better life for themselves and their family--oh the horror!--many of the are here because they face persecution, torture, or death in their home countries.  So it's not entirely accurate to just frame it as "they are here to make money", when many are here to asylum and doing that illegally is faster and feels more secure, ironically, than going through legal channels and rolling the dice that they are accepted.

TBF, bankrupting farmers so they have to sell their land to billionaires at fire-sale prices is probably a very intended consequence under this administration. The entire administration is just a giant smash and grab. Force independent and smaller farm operations into bankruptcy so the billionaires with capital can buy it all and put america's food production into the hands of a very small number of elite. This has been ongoing for some time and Trump is trying to speed run it.

Once the independent farm operations have been sold to the rich the republicans will probably stop caring about immigrants working on farms and they may even start to encourage it.

It will probably be a bit like abortion.  They will want to make it illegal so it makes life harder (and makes business less sustainable) for the Little Guy, but of course when they want to use it they will find a way. 

[Villanelle]

Many of the farms in the Central Valley are owned by a handful of very rich owners, like the Resnick family. They've just run headfirst into the populist wing of the GOP.

I doubt there's a secret plan behind the obvious one, at least from the main players. Some of the WH administration are xenophobes, like Trump and Miller, and some are doing it for power, like Trump and Vance. That doesn't mean that some involved don't see the potential for gain, like Trump, Musk, and Zuck, but they're not in a clandestine meeting discussing how to bankrupt small farmers.

I don't think there's a secret meeting with mysterious handshakes, but I think at least many of them were aware of these consequences and motivated by them.  The xenophobes know that when migrants are afraid to work, some will be forced to leave, and they are pleased about that.  The one seeking more power know that this will make life harder and more expensive for the few remaining small farmers, and they are pleased about that.  And they know that this will also make life harder for many non-<1% Americans and while that may not be a motivating factor, they just don't care.

If you genuinely think that some major Republican-Administration donors aren't seeing what's coming and salivating about the upcoming Fire Sales,  I guess we just see things differently. 

[Villanelle]

I see this has been covered, but what I came here to post was a question about "Unintended Consequences".  Migrants not being able (or being afraid to) work isn't an *unintended* consequence.

...

The unintended consequence of the widely publicized ICE crackdown is the widely publicized danger of a crippled food supply because of undocumented migrant workers collectively not showing up for work with the employers having no legal leverage to enforce non-existing work contracts and the undocumented status of the workers.

The ability of the undocumented agricultural workforce to cripple an essential industry nationwide goes counter to the narrative that sees this workforce as disenfranchised and powerless - to the contrary, the, by now widely known, dependency of the US on this workforce is a vulnerability that translates into anything but powerlessness.

The unique situation that might develop is that public anger resulting from the economic impact is unlikely to direct itself at the workers, or even the employers, but at the government.

Bottom line is that a workforce that can refuse to work and cripple an economy and that is not subject to labor laws does have leverage - they aren't slaves after all.
Add to that the fact that the workers actually want to work but the government is preventing it and you know who will be blamed.

So one of the unintended consequences is that the government finds itself in a labor dispute of sorts with a de facto stand-off with the agricultural workforce and a difficult to manage PR situation on the horizon.

My point was that I see this--migrant workers not showing up for work and therefore some of them leaving the country--as not unintended at all.  The disrupted food supply might be, but the title of this thread says that the workers not showing up is an unintended consequence, and I don't think that's likely the case. 

[ChpBstrd]

If you genuinely think that some major Republican-Administration donors aren't seeing what's coming and salivating about the upcoming Fire Sales,  I guess we just see things differently.

I suppose if a person had knowledge of the areas in which crackdowns were to occur (e.g. citrus, slaughterhouses) or insider knowledge about which tariffs would be implemented and which ones negotiated away (e.g. tariffs on Columbia were just negotiated away, and they export coffee), such a person could make a fortune on commodities futures.

Just saying. I'm sure nobody in the administration would actually abuse their connections this way or trade on insider knowledge. ;)

[Fru-Gal]

Is there any sign that the farm workers are acting in an organized way?

It could just be everybody for themselves trying to avoid arrest.

There’s 100% certainty that farm workers are organized. It’s called United Farm Workers. Multiple ag universities have farm worker public health and immigration researchers and outreach. The ACLU is involved, there are "Know Your Rights" sessions for farm workers from UFW and other organizations, there’s the UFWA… This is not any of theses organizations’ first rodeo. Further, every year thousands of people are deported. A good proportion of them find legal ways to come back. I have many friends from Europe and Latin America who have gone through this process (deportation and return).

https://nfwm.org/farm-workers/farmworker-partners/united-farm-workers-of-america/

None of this is new. The new part is the performative use of military planes.

[Fru-Gal]

Also, increasingly former farm workers own and run farms. https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/news/former-farmworker-now-has-his-own-salinas-valley-farm/

Mexican farm workers are doing to agriculture what Indian coders are doing to tech.

It’s the American dream.

[sixwings]

If you genuinely think that some major Republican-Administration donors aren't seeing what's coming and salivating about the upcoming Fire Sales,  I guess we just see things differently.

I suppose if a person had knowledge of the areas in which crackdowns were to occur (e.g. citrus, slaughterhouses) or insider knowledge about which tariffs would be implemented and which ones negotiated away (e.g. tariffs on Columbia were just negotiated away, and they export coffee), such a person could make a fortune on commodities futures.

Just saying. I'm sure nobody in the administration would actually abuse their connections this way or trade on insider knowledge. ;)

Definitely not. And people like the Resnicks, after donating to Trump and going full MAGA, are definitely not using their insider connections to tell ICE who to raid (farms they want to buy for pennies), and who not to raid (primarily, themselves). That would just be a step too far for corruption in such an upstanding administration.

[YttriumNitrate]

There is such a program.  Only, the quota was just 310k in 2023.
https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-25-106389#:~:text=From%20fiscal%20year%20(FY)%202018,2A%20visas%20in%20FY%202023.

This is incorrect. There is no limit on the number of H2A visas that can be issued.

Federal law does not place a limit on the number of H-2A visas that can be issued

https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-25-106389.pdf

[Telecaster]

My point was that I see this--migrant workers not showing up for work and therefore some of them leaving the country--as not unintended at all.  The disrupted food supply might be, but the title of this thread says that the workers not showing up is an unintended consequence, and I don't think that's likely the case.

Totally agree.   Trump and Miller are fully aware of the impact this will have (and indeed is having) and they are fine with it.   This is exactly what they want.   

One thing that is so maddening over the immigration debate over the years is that many businesses rely on cheap migrant labor, and so they don't really want to crack down in a meaningful way.    Now the populist wing of the GOP has gained control over the business wing, and Trump is willing to hurt them if it means a populist victory for him.   

[MustacheAndaHalf]

I suspect this is only the beginning of the chaos as all the fantasies and imaginings of the MAGAs collide with reality.  It's a shame the price of oranges and other produce will go up, but TBH as a Canadian I doubt I'll be buying much of anything from the US after the submoronic tariffs are enacted at the end of the month.

This is what one hand is doing, the other hand will of course be going to extremes to stifle all information or evidence about the negative impacts of their policy decisions. 

Meanwhile, millions of humans will suffer.  USA USA USA!

Tariffs or not, I will be NOT knowingly be buying American anything.  I’m not supporting that regime.

I've been hearing this a lot lately.

Trump won a democratic vote - he is not a "regime".  And you will be buying American imports every time you fill your car with gas.

With a billionaire campaign contributor who controls a huge social media platform complete with political targeting algorithms, receives government contracts and threatens to levy opposition to the future campaigns of legislators (unless they bend a knee), the terms "democratic vote" and "fair market" mean little or nothing to me anymore.

Now one of the richest men in the world has an office in the White House as well. About half of nation's wealth represented by a few supportive individuals at the inauguration. The big time "fair market" advocates are suddenly silent, LOL. Yeah, is this what the founders envisioned? Open talk of retribution against political opponents. Pardoning of perpetrators of a violent overthrow attempt. 'Regime' sounds about right to me.

You mentioned money repeatedly, but money didn't buy the election: Harris outspent Trump, and still lost.  You mentioned "billionaire", "richest", "half the nation's wealth" and yet their spending on Trump was less than Harris' spending.  So if you're right about money, why did Harris still lose?

I don't see any facts about "fair market" in your post.  Tesla is responsible for the EV market in the U.S., and has better cars (per car magazine reviews), better technology and a first-mover advantage.  Are you claiming Tesla's position is due to government contracts?  That doesn't make sense to me, but maybe there's something I don't know.

If you wanted to criticize the fairness of U.S. elections, "voter suppression" is far more serious than ad spending.  Discarded ballots are disproportionally by people of color in Red states, which have enacted dozens of voter restriction laws.  But in this case, the "regime" would be those of individual states.

[neo von retorch]

With a billionaire campaign contributor who controls a huge social media platform complete with political targeting algorithms, receives government contracts and threatens to levy opposition to the future campaigns of legislators (unless they bend a knee), the terms "democratic vote" and "fair market" mean little or nothing to me anymore.

Now one of the richest men in the world has an office in the White House as well. About half of nation's wealth represented by a few supportive individuals at the inauguration. The big time "fair market" advocates are suddenly silent, LOL. Yeah, is this what the founders envisioned? Open talk of retribution against political opponents. Pardoning of perpetrators of a violent overthrow attempt. 'Regime' sounds about right to me.

You mentioned money repeatedly, but money didn't buy the election: Harris outspent Trump, and still lost.  You mentioned "billionaire", "richest", "half the nation's wealth" and yet their spending on Trump was less than Harris' spending.  So if you're right about money, why did Harris still lose?

I don't see any facts about "fair market" in your post.  Tesla is responsible for the EV market in the U.S., and has better cars (per car magazine reviews), better technology and a first-mover advantage.  Are you claiming Tesla's position is due to government contracts?  That doesn't make sense to me, but maybe there's something I don't know.

If you wanted to criticize the fairness of U.S. elections, "voter suppression" is far more serious than ad spending.  Discarded ballots are disproportionally by people of color in Red states, which have enacted dozens of voter restriction laws.  But in this case, the "regime" would be those of individual states.

One-Half the Money I Spend for Advertising Is Wasted, But I Have Never Been Able To Decide Which Half

It's never been the case that there's a linear result from advertising spend. It has an effect.

But you neglected to address the actual point of the post - social media moguls with their hands on the levers all sitting next to the President as his inauguration.

But I suppose social media algorithms affecting what information people see has no effect on elections?
Or where people get their news?

[reeshau]

There is such a program.  Only, the quota was just 310k in 2023.
https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-25-106389#:~:text=From%20fiscal%20year%20(FY)%202018,2A%20visas%20in%20FY%202023.

This is incorrect. There is no limit on the number of H2A visas that can be issued.

Federal law does not place a limit on the number of H-2A visas that can be issued

https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-25-106389.pdf

Fair enough--quota is not the right word.  However, there are documentation requirements for employers, and the Department of Homeland Security has to update eligible countries from which workers can be brought.  So, there are controls.  And those controls are targeted to be tightened.