Ukraine

[Vashy]

Yeah, because Russia can be trusted to keep to its treaties (see their security guarantee for a de-nuclearised Ukraine back in the 1990s) and respect the borders and sovereignty of its neighbours (Georgia, Chechnya, Ukraine, Crimea, the list goes on). And Ukraine *is* beating Russia - Russia has already retreated from Kyiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Kherson and is now giving back territory in Donbass. Plus, if Ukraine moves forward a bit more in the south, the Kerch bridge and all Russian ships are within HIMARS range, putting Crimea very much on the table.

Sadly, unless Ukraine actually makes significant progress into Crimea proper, the Kerch Strait will still be well outside HIMARS range.

The rockets that can hit the Kerch bridge exist, it's just that the US isn't delivering them (yet). While I think the main Ukrainian push is currently in Donbass, I don't think the southern occupied territories will be "left alone". Considering that Russia's forces so far seem to be regionally collapsing pretty drastically when they do, the picture can be very different in just a few weeks.

[Sibley]

...some sort of peace. 

What sort of peace?

Idk, peace where there isn't hundreds of rounds of mortar everyday?  Life isn't fair.  You can conjure up the Hollywood story of how Ukraine stood up to the big bad daddy six ways to Sunday...it's great MSM fodder. But let's dial the time back to WW2, where Russia lost somewhere around 20M lives...20 fucking million.  You think they care about 500 lives lost this month or whatever the latest claims are?  Russia will just continue to throw meat into the meat grinder for years. Oh boo hoo it's not fair or it's a genocide or whatever.  It's fucking war.  If you're not prepared to accept that then you ought to be begging for all sides to negotiate peace.  Which btw means Russia increases it's western border territory.

Or Russia just says "Oh yeah, peace! What a novel idea! Why not? We pull back all our forces into our country".
Everyone (at least outside Russia) would gladly end this war. But destroying Ukraine as a price and showing dictators that you just have to kill enough people to make everyone cover down is not acceptable, but for Ukrainians and everyone else.

But your going back to WWII has some points to it. It's just that now Russia has the Role of Nazi Germany and Ukrainians are the defenders. And they are way more prepared to fight to the bitter end than today's Russia.
If anything the winter might tone down the actual fighting, but it will hurt Russia a lot more, even with the civilian problems Russia causes in Ukraine. Their military attacked in February with summer clothes and I am sure they didn't get around to supply the 100K new recruits with winter ones. In contrast new Ukrainian soldiers get both a good training, good weapons and good winter clothes from Canada. They will keep up the pressure.
Russia only needs to go home for peace.

There is evidence that Russian soldiers are actually freezing to death.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/11/27/russian-soldiers-are-freezing-to-death-in-eastern-ukraine/?sh=224342da4254

[pecunia]

...some sort of peace. 

What sort of peace?

Idk, peace where there isn't hundreds of rounds of mortar everyday?  Life isn't fair.  You can conjure up the Hollywood story of how Ukraine stood up to the big bad daddy six ways to Sunday...it's great MSM fodder. But let's dial the time back to WW2, where Russia lost somewhere around 20M lives...20 fucking million.  You think they care about 500 lives lost this month or whatever the latest claims are?  Russia will just continue to throw meat into the meat grinder for years. Oh boo hoo it's not fair or it's a genocide or whatever.  It's fucking war.  If you're not prepared to accept that then you ought to be begging for all sides to negotiate peace.  Which btw means Russia increases it's western border territory.

Or Russia just says "Oh yeah, peace! What a novel idea! Why not? We pull back all our forces into our country".
Everyone (at least outside Russia) would gladly end this war. But destroying Ukraine as a price and showing dictators that you just have to kill enough people to make everyone cover down is not acceptable, but for Ukrainians and everyone else.

But your going back to WWII has some points to it. It's just that now Russia has the Role of Nazi Germany and Ukrainians are the defenders. And they are way more prepared to fight to the bitter end than today's Russia.
If anything the winter might tone down the actual fighting, but it will hurt Russia a lot more, even with the civilian problems Russia causes in Ukraine. Their military attacked in February with summer clothes and I am sure they didn't get around to supply the 100K new recruits with winter ones. In contrast new Ukrainian soldiers get both a good training, good weapons and good winter clothes from Canada. They will keep up the pressure.
Russia only needs to go home for peace.

There is evidence that Russian soldiers are actually freezing to death.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/11/27/russian-soldiers-are-freezing-to-death-in-eastern-ukraine/?sh=224342da4254

You would think they would learn from their own history.  This was one of the major problems with the Winter war with Finland.  They saw the cold take the Germans in World War 2.  They saw the cold take Napoleon's troops.  What do they call it when the same mistake is made over and over?

[Sibley]

...some sort of peace. 

What sort of peace?

Idk, peace where there isn't hundreds of rounds of mortar everyday?  Life isn't fair.  You can conjure up the Hollywood story of how Ukraine stood up to the big bad daddy six ways to Sunday...it's great MSM fodder. But let's dial the time back to WW2, where Russia lost somewhere around 20M lives...20 fucking million.  You think they care about 500 lives lost this month or whatever the latest claims are?  Russia will just continue to throw meat into the meat grinder for years. Oh boo hoo it's not fair or it's a genocide or whatever.  It's fucking war.  If you're not prepared to accept that then you ought to be begging for all sides to negotiate peace.  Which btw means Russia increases it's western border territory.

Or Russia just says "Oh yeah, peace! What a novel idea! Why not? We pull back all our forces into our country".
Everyone (at least outside Russia) would gladly end this war. But destroying Ukraine as a price and showing dictators that you just have to kill enough people to make everyone cover down is not acceptable, but for Ukrainians and everyone else.

But your going back to WWII has some points to it. It's just that now Russia has the Role of Nazi Germany and Ukrainians are the defenders. And they are way more prepared to fight to the bitter end than today's Russia.
If anything the winter might tone down the actual fighting, but it will hurt Russia a lot more, even with the civilian problems Russia causes in Ukraine. Their military attacked in February with summer clothes and I am sure they didn't get around to supply the 100K new recruits with winter ones. In contrast new Ukrainian soldiers get both a good training, good weapons and good winter clothes from Canada. They will keep up the pressure.
Russia only needs to go home for peace.

There is evidence that Russian soldiers are actually freezing to death.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/11/27/russian-soldiers-are-freezing-to-death-in-eastern-ukraine/?sh=224342da4254

You would think they would learn from their own history.  This was one of the major problems with the Winter war with Finland.  They saw the cold take the Germans in World War 2.  They saw the cold take Napoleon's troops.  What do they call it when the same mistake is made over and over?

Insanity?

[Tyson]

...some sort of peace. 

What sort of peace?

Idk, peace where there isn't hundreds of rounds of mortar everyday?  Life isn't fair.  You can conjure up the Hollywood story of how Ukraine stood up to the big bad daddy six ways to Sunday...it's great MSM fodder. But let's dial the time back to WW2, where Russia lost somewhere around 20M lives...20 fucking million.  You think they care about 500 lives lost this month or whatever the latest claims are?  Russia will just continue to throw meat into the meat grinder for years. Oh boo hoo it's not fair or it's a genocide or whatever.  It's fucking war.  If you're not prepared to accept that then you ought to be begging for all sides to negotiate peace.  Which btw means Russia increases it's western border territory.

Or Russia just says "Oh yeah, peace! What a novel idea! Why not? We pull back all our forces into our country".
Everyone (at least outside Russia) would gladly end this war. But destroying Ukraine as a price and showing dictators that you just have to kill enough people to make everyone cover down is not acceptable, but for Ukrainians and everyone else.

But your going back to WWII has some points to it. It's just that now Russia has the Role of Nazi Germany and Ukrainians are the defenders. And they are way more prepared to fight to the bitter end than today's Russia.
If anything the winter might tone down the actual fighting, but it will hurt Russia a lot more, even with the civilian problems Russia causes in Ukraine. Their military attacked in February with summer clothes and I am sure they didn't get around to supply the 100K new recruits with winter ones. In contrast new Ukrainian soldiers get both a good training, good weapons and good winter clothes from Canada. They will keep up the pressure.
Russia only needs to go home for peace.

There is evidence that Russian soldiers are actually freezing to death.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/11/27/russian-soldiers-are-freezing-to-death-in-eastern-ukraine/?sh=224342da4254

You would think they would learn from their own history.  This was one of the major problems with the Winter war with Finland.  They saw the cold take the Germans in World War 2.  They saw the cold take Napoleon's troops.  What do they call it when the same mistake is made over and over?

Insanity?

Those who learn from history get to watch others repeat it.

[former player]

...some sort of peace. 

What sort of peace?

Idk, peace where there isn't hundreds of rounds of mortar everyday?  Life isn't fair.  You can conjure up the Hollywood story of how Ukraine stood up to the big bad daddy six ways to Sunday...it's great MSM fodder. But let's dial the time back to WW2, where Russia lost somewhere around 20M lives...20 fucking million.  You think they care about 500 lives lost this month or whatever the latest claims are?  Russia will just continue to throw meat into the meat grinder for years. Oh boo hoo it's not fair or it's a genocide or whatever.  It's fucking war.  If you're not prepared to accept that then you ought to be begging for all sides to negotiate peace.  Which btw means Russia increases it's western border territory.

Or Russia just says "Oh yeah, peace! What a novel idea! Why not? We pull back all our forces into our country".
Everyone (at least outside Russia) would gladly end this war. But destroying Ukraine as a price and showing dictators that you just have to kill enough people to make everyone cover down is not acceptable, but for Ukrainians and everyone else.

But your going back to WWII has some points to it. It's just that now Russia has the Role of Nazi Germany and Ukrainians are the defenders. And they are way more prepared to fight to the bitter end than today's Russia.
If anything the winter might tone down the actual fighting, but it will hurt Russia a lot more, even with the civilian problems Russia causes in Ukraine. Their military attacked in February with summer clothes and I am sure they didn't get around to supply the 100K new recruits with winter ones. In contrast new Ukrainian soldiers get both a good training, good weapons and good winter clothes from Canada. They will keep up the pressure.
Russia only needs to go home for peace.

There is evidence that Russian soldiers are actually freezing to death.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/11/27/russian-soldiers-are-freezing-to-death-in-eastern-ukraine/?sh=224342da4254

You would think they would learn from their own history.  This was one of the major problems with the Winter war with Finland.  They saw the cold take the Germans in World War 2.  They saw the cold take Napoleon's troops.  What do they call it when the same mistake is made over and over?

Insanity?

Corruption and incompetence.

[SunnyDays]

...some sort of peace. 

What sort of peace?

Idk, peace where there isn't hundreds of rounds of mortar everyday?  Life isn't fair.  You can conjure up the Hollywood story of how Ukraine stood up to the big bad daddy six ways to Sunday...it's great MSM fodder. But let's dial the time back to WW2, where Russia lost somewhere around 20M lives...20 fucking million.  You think they care about 500 lives lost this month or whatever the latest claims are?  Russia will just continue to throw meat into the meat grinder for years. Oh boo hoo it's not fair or it's a genocide or whatever.  It's fucking war.  If you're not prepared to accept that then you ought to be begging for all sides to negotiate peace.  Which btw means Russia increases it's western border territory.

Or Russia just says "Oh yeah, peace! What a novel idea! Why not? We pull back all our forces into our country".
Everyone (at least outside Russia) would gladly end this war. But destroying Ukraine as a price and showing dictators that you just have to kill enough people to make everyone cover down is not acceptable, but for Ukrainians and everyone else.

But your going back to WWII has some points to it. It's just that now Russia has the Role of Nazi Germany and Ukrainians are the defenders. And they are way more prepared to fight to the bitter end than today's Russia.
If anything the winter might tone down the actual fighting, but it will hurt Russia a lot more, even with the civilian problems Russia causes in Ukraine. Their military attacked in February with summer clothes and I am sure they didn't get around to supply the 100K new recruits with winter ones. In contrast new Ukrainian soldiers get both a good training, good weapons and good winter clothes from Canada. They will keep up the pressure.
Russia only needs to go home for peace.

There is evidence that Russian soldiers are actually freezing to death.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/11/27/russian-soldiers-are-freezing-to-death-in-eastern-ukraine/?sh=224342da4254

You would think they would learn from their own history.  This was one of the major problems with the Winter war with Finland.  They saw the cold take the Germans in World War 2.  They saw the cold take Napoleon's troops.  What do they call it when the same mistake is made over and over?

Insanity?

Corruption and incompetence.

Or arrogance.  "For us, it will be different."

[nereo]

I think the simple answer is that Russia assumed this war (or “special military operation”) would last weeks at best, and be over long before spring became summer. And given how easily they took Crimea and their apparent superiority in numbers and equipment back in Feb. that’s understandable.

Now they’re facing winter, and some horrible choices. Retreat (further) and this boondoggle becomes a public recognition of complete military failure. Dig in and they face continued battlefield losses coupled with the unforgiving cold at the very time when their supply lines are most strained and international sanctions are finally biting.
 

[zolotiyeruki]

I think the simple answer is that Russia assumed this war (or “special military operation”) would last weeks at best, and be over long before spring became summer. And given how easily they took Crimea and their apparent superiority in numbers and equipment back in Feb. that’s understandable.

Now they’re facing winter, and some horrible choices. Retreat (further) and this boondoggle becomes a public recognition of complete military failure. Dig in and they face continued battlefield losses coupled with the unforgiving cold at the very time when their supply lines are most strained and international sanctions are finally biting.

I find it telling that Russia is using its precious "precision" cruise missiles on targets with no military value, while Ukraine is using its (actual) precision weapons to take out weapons caches, fuel depots, command & control centers, supply lines, etc.  To me, this means that Ukraine's logistics will be in FAR better condition for the next few months of fighting than Russia's will be...

Errrr, let me rephrase.  The gap between Ukraine's logistics capabilities and Russia's will continue, and winter is only going to compound it.  As bad as we've heard it is for the Russian conscripts, it's only going to get worse.

[pecunia]

I think the simple answer is that Russia assumed this war (or “special military operation”) would last weeks at best, and be over long before spring became summer. And given how easily they took Crimea and their apparent superiority in numbers and equipment back in Feb. that’s understandable.

Now they’re facing winter, and some horrible choices. Retreat (further) and this boondoggle becomes a public recognition of complete military failure. Dig in and they face continued battlefield losses coupled with the unforgiving cold at the very time when their supply lines are most strained and international sanctions are finally biting.

I find it telling that Russia is using its precious "precision" cruise missiles on targets with no military value, while Ukraine is using its (actual) precision weapons to take out weapons caches, fuel depots, command & control centers, supply lines, etc.  To me, this means that Ukraine's logistics will be in FAR better condition for the next few months of fighting than Russia's will be...

Errrr, let me rephrase.  The gap between Ukraine's logistics capabilities and Russia's will continue, and winter is only going to compound it.  As bad as we've heard it is for the Russian conscripts, it's only going to get worse.

As I understand it the Russians have three lines of defense.  The first is the conscripts.  The second is the regular army.  The third are the Chechens.  Any conscript retreating will be shot by regular army.  If he gets by them, the Chechens will finish him off.  If he advances, Ukrainian fire will take him down.  So he has to stay and freeze in the trench.  If fires are lit for warmth, the drones will spot them and drop grenades.

[Dancin'Dog]

I think the simple answer is that Russia assumed this war (or “special military operation”) would last weeks at best, and be over long before spring became summer. And given how easily they took Crimea and their apparent superiority in numbers and equipment back in Feb. that’s understandable.

Now they’re facing winter, and some horrible choices. Retreat (further) and this boondoggle becomes a public recognition of complete military failure. Dig in and they face continued battlefield losses coupled with the unforgiving cold at the very time when their supply lines are most strained and international sanctions are finally biting.

I find it telling that Russia is using its precious "precision" cruise missiles on targets with no military value, while Ukraine is using its (actual) precision weapons to take out weapons caches, fuel depots, command & control centers, supply lines, etc.  To me, this means that Ukraine's logistics will be in FAR better condition for the next few months of fighting than Russia's will be...

Errrr, let me rephrase.  The gap between Ukraine's logistics capabilities and Russia's will continue, and winter is only going to compound it.  As bad as we've heard it is for the Russian conscripts, it's only going to get worse.

As I understand it the Russians have three lines of defense.  The first is the conscripts.  The second is the regular army.  The third are the Chechens.  Any conscript retreating will be shot by regular army.  If he gets by them, the Chechens will finish him off.  If he advances, Ukrainian fire will take him down.  So he has to stay and freeze in the trench.  If fires are lit for warmth, the drones will spot them and drop grenades.

Surrendering seems like their best option. 

[GuitarStv]

...some sort of peace. 

What sort of peace?

Idk, peace where there isn't hundreds of rounds of mortar everyday?  Life isn't fair.  You can conjure up the Hollywood story of how Ukraine stood up to the big bad daddy six ways to Sunday...it's great MSM fodder. But let's dial the time back to WW2, where Russia lost somewhere around 20M lives...20 fucking million.  You think they care about 500 lives lost this month or whatever the latest claims are?  Russia will just continue to throw meat into the meat grinder for years. Oh boo hoo it's not fair or it's a genocide or whatever.  It's fucking war.  If you're not prepared to accept that then you ought to be begging for all sides to negotiate peace.  Which btw means Russia increases it's western border territory.

Or Russia just says "Oh yeah, peace! What a novel idea! Why not? We pull back all our forces into our country".
Everyone (at least outside Russia) would gladly end this war. But destroying Ukraine as a price and showing dictators that you just have to kill enough people to make everyone cover down is not acceptable, but for Ukrainians and everyone else.

But your going back to WWII has some points to it. It's just that now Russia has the Role of Nazi Germany and Ukrainians are the defenders. And they are way more prepared to fight to the bitter end than today's Russia.
If anything the winter might tone down the actual fighting, but it will hurt Russia a lot more, even with the civilian problems Russia causes in Ukraine. Their military attacked in February with summer clothes and I am sure they didn't get around to supply the 100K new recruits with winter ones. In contrast new Ukrainian soldiers get both a good training, good weapons and good winter clothes from Canada. They will keep up the pressure.
Russia only needs to go home for peace.

There is evidence that Russian soldiers are actually freezing to death.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/11/27/russian-soldiers-are-freezing-to-death-in-eastern-ukraine/?sh=224342da4254

You would think they would learn from their own history.  This was one of the major problems with the Winter war with Finland.  They saw the cold take the Germans in World War 2.  They saw the cold take Napoleon's troops.  What do they call it when the same mistake is made over and over?

Insanity?

Corruption and incompetence.

Putin is completely insulated from the plight of the people on the front lines.  He's not accountable to anyone.  He has a large number of reservists who can be sent to freeze to death.

That's a tough trifecta that would have to be overcome for Russia to care.

[Travis]

https://static.rusi.org/359-SR-Ukraine-Preliminary-Lessons-Feb-July-2022-web-final.pdf


Analysis on the first six months of the war by a couple of Ukrainian generals and UK analysts. Goes into a lot of details I hadn't read before about Russian prep work leading up to the war, tactical actions by both sides in the first couple months, and lessons to be learned.

[BicycleB]

https://static.rusi.org/359-SR-Ukraine-Preliminary-Lessons-Feb-July-2022-web-final.pdf


Analysis on the first six months of the war by a couple of Ukrainian generals and UK analysts. Goes into a lot of details I hadn't read before about Russian prep work leading up to the war, tactical actions by both sides in the first couple months, and lessons to be learned.

Wow. This a lot more informative than ordinary news reports.

[LennStar]

https://static.rusi.org/359-SR-Ukraine-Preliminary-Lessons-Feb-July-2022-web-final.pdf


Analysis on the first six months of the war by a couple of Ukrainian generals and UK analysts. Goes into a lot of details I hadn't read before about Russian prep work leading up to the war, tactical actions by both sides in the first couple months, and lessons to be learned.

Wow. This a lot more informative than ordinary news reports.

Yeah, definitely worth putting a few hours in if you are interested.

[Michael in ABQ]

https://static.rusi.org/359-SR-Ukraine-Preliminary-Lessons-Feb-July-2022-web-final.pdf


Analysis on the first six months of the war by a couple of Ukrainian generals and UK analysts. Goes into a lot of details I hadn't read before about Russian prep work leading up to the war, tactical actions by both sides in the first couple months, and lessons to be learned.

Thanks @Travis I didn't read the whole thing yet but what I skimmed was excellent. Definitely some good lessons learned to pass on to my Soldiers.

[TomTX]

The people living in Taiwan are Taiwanese.  They very much don't want to become Chinese!

Um, the official name for Taiwan is "Republic of China" and that the government used to control the Chinese mainland until the PRC took over.

I'd agree they very much don't want to be under the PRC government, but that's a different thing than being Chinese.

[GuitarStv]

The people living in Taiwan are Taiwanese.  They very much don't want to become Chinese!

Um, the official name for Taiwan is "Republic of China" and that the government used to control the Chinese mainland until the PRC took over.

I'd agree they very much don't want to be under the PRC government, but that's a different thing than being Chinese.

It depends on you how you look at it I suppose.  Ethnically, the people of Taiwan are almost entirely Han.  They were nationally Chinese when they fled Mao's takeover of China in the late '40s.  But after 80ish years apart from China (and fighting pretty hard to not re-join China that whole time) I'm not sure that you the label 'Chinese' fits any more.  I don't see the government or political structure of China changing for several generations at least, so would expect the Taiwanese to continue to diverge from their ancestral roots going forward.

[Sibley]

The people living in Taiwan are Taiwanese.  They very much don't want to become Chinese!

Um, the official name for Taiwan is "Republic of China" and that the government used to control the Chinese mainland until the PRC took over.

I'd agree they very much don't want to be under the PRC government, but that's a different thing than being Chinese.

It depends on you how you look at it I suppose.  Ethnically, the people of Taiwan are almost entirely Han.  They were nationally Chinese when they fled Mao's takeover of China in the late '40s.  But after 80ish years apart from China (and fighting pretty hard to not re-join China that whole time) I'm not sure that you the label 'Chinese' fits any more.  I don't see the government or political structure of China changing for several generations at least, so would expect the Taiwanese to continue to diverge from their ancestral roots going forward.

An ex's parents were from Taiwan, and were among those who fled China. They were adamant that they were NOT Chinese. So, that's 2 people out of 20+ million.

[BicycleB]

The people living in Taiwan are Taiwanese.  They very much don't want to become Chinese!

Um, the official name for Taiwan is "Republic of China" and that the government used to control the Chinese mainland until the PRC took over.

I'd agree they very much don't want to be under the PRC government, but that's a different thing than being Chinese.

It depends on you how you look at it I suppose.  Ethnically, the people of Taiwan are almost entirely Han.  They were nationally Chinese when they fled Mao's takeover of China in the late '40s.  But after 80ish years apart from China (and fighting pretty hard to not re-join China that whole time) I'm not sure that you the label 'Chinese' fits any more.  I don't see the government or political structure of China changing for several generations at least, so would expect the Taiwanese to continue to diverge from their ancestral roots going forward.

An ex's parents were from Taiwan, and were among those who fled China. They were adamant that they were NOT Chinese. So, that's 2 people out of 20+ million.

Fwiw, @GuitarStv, wikipedia lists the demonym as "Taiwanese."

That kind of agrees with Sibley's direct report of the people's preference.

I met Taiwan's representative to the US, what would be an ambassador under normal circumstances. I think he said Taiwanese. He definitely didn't say Chinese in our conversation.

[Poundwise]

I think it would be like calling Canadians "Americans".  They might accept being called "North Americans" on occasion but would surely object if one did so consistently. 

I recently saw the raw data for a local survey and quite a few of the respondents deliberately did not choose "Chinese" as an ethnicity, picking "Other" and filling in "Taiwanese" as an option.

[Just Joe]

I'm hesitant to go too far off the Ukraine topic but if the USA duplicates computer chip manufacturing capability within North America - does that make Taiwan less valuable to the west? Less likely to defend Taiwan?

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

I'm hesitant to go too far off the Ukraine topic but if the USA duplicates computer chip manufacturing capability within North America - does that make Taiwan less valuable to the west? Less likely to defend Taiwan?

The US's relationship transcends the chip question, as evidenced by the fact the US has been in a posture of strategic ambiguity in terms of defense of Taiwan since before the ascent of TSMC. This all goes back to the central question: is the US setting the terms for a unipolar world with global institutions and trade, or will the US retreat and allow a multipolar & more fractured world to arise? So far, the unipolar view is winning (e.g. the relative solidarity behind Ukraine).

But yes, I think if TSMC fab technology wasn't limited to Taiwan, it would give the US a freer hand in determining how committed it was maintaining the status quo with China. One analogue situation, which has been particularly emphasized by Peter Zeihan, is US fracking technology, which gave the US greater leeway in lowering its involvement in the mideast. In spite of nominal energy independence, however, the US is still considerably engaged there.

[Michael in ABQ]

I'm hesitant to go too far off the Ukraine topic but if the USA duplicates computer chip manufacturing capability within North America - does that make Taiwan less valuable to the west? Less likely to defend Taiwan?

Perhaps, but Taiwan is still a critical node in the first island chain (including Japan and the Philippines) that basically keeps China contained from a naval perspective.

In the same respect, Ukraine helps keep Russia contained from expanding further west into Europe.


A central tenet of US strategy is keeping a global competitor from arising in Eurasia - right now that is China (and to a much lesser extent Russia) just as it used to the Soviet Union and before that Nazi Germany.

[pecunia]

Is this BS or are HIAMRS kaput as an effective weapon?

https://eurasiantimes.com/end-of-himars-russian-air-defenses-units-receive-new-software-that-can-track-knock-out-us-supplied-mlrs/

[Michael in ABQ]

Is this BS or are HIAMRS kaput as an effective weapon?

https://eurasiantimes.com/end-of-himars-russian-air-defenses-units-receive-new-software-that-can-track-knock-out-us-supplied-mlrs/

Probably BS. Even if they have better air defense, they have to be in the right place at the right time. They can't protect everything and clearly the HIMARS has been effective in hitting a lot of targets. Also, how many missiles can the US provide vs. how many counter-missiles can Russia produce?

[Travis]

Is this BS or are HIAMRS kaput as an effective weapon?

https://eurasiantimes.com/end-of-himars-russian-air-defenses-units-receive-new-software-that-can-track-knock-out-us-supplied-mlrs/

It's two sentences that screams "trust me bro."

"Army stuck in the early 80s whips up a software update that changes the laws of physics and doubles effectiveness of every air defense system regardless of radar or missile being used."

Also, take a look at every other article on that site.

[Radagast]

Is this BS or are HIAMRS kaput as an effective weapon?

https://eurasiantimes.com/end-of-himars-russian-air-defenses-units-receive-new-software-that-can-track-knock-out-us-supplied-mlrs/

"Russian air defenses were previously knocking down 75 to 80% of GMLRS"
"Now 100%!"
"tornado mlrs is like so much better!"
Pure BS.
Also consider the sources of the quotes: all Russian state media. Finally, "eurasia" is a phrase Russian propagandists have taken to refer to a new Russian empire, so your source is essentially named "New Russian Empire Times."

[zolotiyeruki]

Is this BS or are HIAMRS kaput as an effective weapon?

https://eurasiantimes.com/end-of-himars-russian-air-defenses-units-receive-new-software-that-can-track-knock-out-us-supplied-mlrs/

@Michael in ABQ is right about being in the right place, although since Russia's biggest weakness (among many big weaknesses) is their logistics hubs, so that's where I would expect Russia to put their AA defenses.

Of course, that then opens up all sorts of other targets, and Ukraine has already been hitting Russian front line units with HIMARS, so...who knows?

In any case, given the poor performance of Russia's.....everything over the past nine months, I find it difficult to believe any claims of sudden improvements in their capability.

[Sibley]

About the only thing the Russians have done WELL is hit Ukraine's electrical grid. I don't know how Russia has such good information about the grid, but they do. Some possibilities are benign, others are not. Either way, it really sucks for Ukraine.

[Travis]

About the only thing the Russians have done WELL is hit Ukraine's electrical grid. I don't know how Russia has such good information about the grid, but they do. Some possibilities are benign, others are not. Either way, it really sucks for Ukraine.

It's publicly available information. Power plants and transformers don't move, even after a decade. The flip side of them using ten year old intel is that they've fired missiles at abandoned military bases as well.

[pecunia]

About the only thing the Russians have done WELL is hit Ukraine's electrical grid. I don't know how Russia has such good information about the grid, but they do. Some possibilities are benign, others are not. Either way, it really sucks for Ukraine.

It's publicly available information. Power plants and transformers don't move, even after a decade. The flip side of them using ten year old intel is that they've fired missiles at abandoned military bases as well.

Besides publicly available one line power diagrams satellite photos can be used to spot substations.  Oddly enough I've worked at substations and have used Google to find them myself.

[Sibley]

So, would it make sense for Ukraine (when this is all over), to rebuild their electrical grid and put it underground or otherwise protected? Or is that not really possible?

[TomTX]

So, would it make sense for Ukraine (when this is all over), to rebuild their electrical grid and put it underground or otherwise protected? Or is that not really possible?

Burying AC power lines for medium to long distances is impractical due to capacitance effects. NBD at the low voltage, short distance neighborhood level. Big deal for transmission. It's also far more expensive than overhead power lines.

[zolotiyeruki]

So, would it make sense for Ukraine (when this is all over), to rebuild their electrical grid and put it underground or otherwise protected? Or is that not really possible?

I think you have to define what you mean by "electrical grid".  The wires?  Nope.  TomTX hit on the efficiency issues, and besides, suspended power lines are (relatively) inexpensive to run and repair.  The substations, transformers, etc?  That may make more sense to locate in more protected areas.

That's still kind of a bad idea, though, because either
A) Russia gets kicked out of Ukraine, the war ends, and Russia stops trying to blow it up, or
B) Russia eventually runs out of long-range precision weapons that can hit those facilities, or
C) Russia somehow wins (how!?) and it's a moot point.

[pecunia]

So, would it make sense for Ukraine (when this is all over), to rebuild their electrical grid and put it underground or otherwise protected? Or is that not really possible?

I think you have to define what you mean by "electrical grid".  The wires?  Nope.  TomTX hit on the efficiency issues, and besides, suspended power lines are (relatively) inexpensive to run and repair.  The substations, transformers, etc?  That may make more sense to locate in more protected areas.

That's still kind of a bad idea, though, because either
A) Russia gets kicked out of Ukraine, the war ends, and Russia stops trying to blow it up, or
B) Russia eventually runs out of long-range precision weapons that can hit those facilities, or
C) Russia somehow wins (how!?) and it's a moot point.

Even if it made economic sense to bury high voltage lines, most of the infrastructure is probably intact.  Think of the high voltage towers.  Shouldn't they be re-utilized rather than to trench hundreds of kilometers?

I suspect they are attacking substations and taking out transformers.  High voltage transformers can have hundreds of gallons of oil used for winding resistance.  I could see putting blast walls around them, but the connection bushings at the top would remain vulnerable.  These may be particularly bad as these bushings can have an outer housing of porcelain

Perhaps the best defense is a lot of redundancy.

[Michael in ABQ]

About the only thing the Russians have done WELL is hit Ukraine's electrical grid. I don't know how Russia has such good information about the grid, but they do. Some possibilities are benign, others are not. Either way, it really sucks for Ukraine.

A few minutes in Google Maps and you can find a dozen electrical substations. There's no way to hide that. You can put them inside a building, but it would be pretty obvious to see these huge electrical lines running into a building that never has any cars parked near it because there's little need for anyone to ever go there. The nature of a substation is that the equipment needs some buffer space from anything else and they usually have a wall or fence around them and clear areas without any vegetation to interfere with the equipment (not to mention the electrical wires running to and from them).

[LennStar]

So, would it make sense for Ukraine (when this is all over), to rebuild their electrical grid and put it underground or otherwise protected? Or is that not really possible?

For a war, it would make a lot more sense to go for radical local energy production with wind, solar and biogas combinations on the level of every medium city.

Still, even that redundancy can't protect big consumers like steel factories.

[pecunia]

So, would it make sense for Ukraine (when this is all over), to rebuild their electrical grid and put it underground or otherwise protected? Or is that not really possible?

For a war, it would make a lot more sense to go for radical local energy production with wind, solar and biogas combinations on the level of every medium city.

Still, even that redundancy can't protect big consumers like steel factories.

Steel factories favor the use of non intermittent power sources.  Solar and wind may not be suitable for large industrial endeavors.  This is why they are backed up by natural gas.  Steel mini mills can be modeled at times like a short circuit as they may use an electric arc to melt scrap metal.  Much larger amounts of power are needed than for the charging of cell phones.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

I want to commend Ukrainian forces for striking two targets at once.  If they only cause one explosion, it's hard to say if it's Russian incompetance or not.

Several people have been killed in explosions at two Russian military airfields, according to reports.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63857451

[LennStar]

I want to commend Ukrainian forces for striking two targets at once.  If they only cause one explosion, it's hard to say if it's Russian incompetance or not.

Several people have been killed in explosions at two Russian military airfields, according to reports.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63857451

I still believe it's incompetence. All trained personal is at the front and replacements just don't know (or care) to handle stuff correctly.
And even if this is not the reason, it's incompetence by the security ;)

[bwall]

I want to commend Ukrainian forces for striking two targets at once.  If they only cause one explosion, it's hard to say if it's Russian incompetance or not.

Several people have been killed in explosions at two Russian military airfields, according to reports.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63857451

I still believe it's incompetence. All trained personal is at the front and replacements just don't know (or care) to handle stuff correctly.
And even if this is not the reason, it's incompetence by the security ;)

I'm reminded of Hanlon's Razor; "never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity or incompetence." Where in this case malice is action by the Ukrainian security forces. :)

[Travis]

https://twitter.com/warinukraineyet/status/1599765572610183168?s=46&t=x3tIwR3KKAv99Z5AwkpbQQ

Ukrainian drone strikes.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1599832518944903168?s=20&t=hzv28J0HUa8GwVARMJOgHQ

Russian MoD says two planes damaged. Other battle damage pending.

[Travis]

For the last couple months, Russian forces have been digging miles of trenches with excavators and installing countless "dragon's teeth" anti-tank obstacles all across the front lines. This is what some of those obstacles look like after maybe two months:

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1600151315371347968

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/23/2130685/-Ukraine-Those-dragon-teeth-are-even-more-useless-than-I-thought

For reference, this is what WW2 dragon's teeth looked like:

https://www.warhistoryonline.com/world-war-ii/hitlers-fortified-siegfried-line-was-massive.html?chrome=1

We got past them by either building large earthen ramps over them, or blowing them up. These look like they'll be knocked aside or flipped over by a simple front-loader.

[Glenstache]

For the last couple months, Russian forces have been digging miles of trenches with excavators and installing countless "dragon's teeth" anti-tank obstacles all across the front lines. This is what some of those obstacles look like after maybe two months:

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1600151315371347968

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/23/2130685/-Ukraine-Those-dragon-teeth-are-even-more-useless-than-I-thought

For reference, this is what WW2 dragon's teeth looked like:

https://www.warhistoryonline.com/world-war-ii/hitlers-fortified-siegfried-line-was-massive.html?chrome=1

We got past them by either building large earthen ramps over them, or blowing them up. These look like they'll be knocked aside or flipped over by a simple front-loader.

Nothing quite like using concrete parking blocks to stop a tank.

[LennStar]

So the Russians simply threw a load of triangle shaped hollows on the field?
That is more useful as cover for infantry than in stopping a tank lol.

[GuitarStv]

I don't entirely get the motivation.  It's not like Ukraine has been rolling tanks into Russian territory to capture it and force Russian citizens to become Ukrainian.

Was this just to feed Russian state misinformation?  If so, that would explain why they don't care about effectiveness.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

For the last couple months, Russian forces have been digging miles of trenches with excavators and installing countless "dragon's teeth" anti-tank obstacles all across the front lines. This is what some of those obstacles look like after maybe two months:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/23/2130685/-Ukraine-Those-dragon-teeth-are-even-more-useless-than-I-thought

And if they fail to stop tanks, they double as Russian tombstones.

[Travis]

I don't entirely get the motivation.  It's not like Ukraine has been rolling tanks into Russian territory to capture it and force Russian citizens to become Ukrainian.

Was this just to feed Russian state misinformation?  If so, that would explain why they don't care about effectiveness.

Item#458 on Russia's "corruption breeds incompetence" punch list. And while nobody sane is talking about Ukraine crossing the Russian border, Belgorod now has a line of fortifications around it and villages on the border have been evacuated.

[pecunia]

I don't entirely get the motivation.  It's not like Ukraine has been rolling tanks into Russian territory to capture it and force Russian citizens to become Ukrainian.

Was this just to feed Russian state misinformation?  If so, that would explain why they don't care about effectiveness.

Item#458 on Russia's "corruption breeds incompetence" punch list. And while nobody sane is talking about Ukraine crossing the Russian border, Belgorod now has a line of fortifications around it and villages on the border have been evacuated.

The Ukrainians might as well move into those villages.  Why not?  The Russians blew their homes up.