Author Topic: Ukraine  (Read 110014 times)

lemanfan

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1600 on: May 13, 2022, 06:44:56 AM »
Love it. Essentially, they have no ships but are still sinking/damaging/destroying Russian ships.

Memes are abundant:

https://twitter.com/blitzkrieg2king/status/1524794345404121089

« Last Edit: May 13, 2022, 07:17:03 AM by lemanfan »

TomTX

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1601 on: May 13, 2022, 07:40:45 AM »
I saw this earlier today, and when I saw it again here, I just had to smile.  And then I felt a deep and profound sadness for the waste of it all.  Up to a thousand young Russian men with the potential to build their nation snuffed out.  And for what?  To invade a country that didn't even pose a military threat to satisfy the thirst for power of an unhealthy old man.  It's all so wrong.
One wonders how many weren't actually Russian, but instead forced/coerced/tricked conscripts from the portions of Ukraine which Russia illegally seized in 2014.

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1602 on: May 13, 2022, 08:05:56 AM »
So, do you think that Ukraine will be able to get it's rightful land back?
I think it comes down to how many precision weapons Ukraine can procure.  Everything from ATGMs to MANPADs to laser-guided artillery shells to quadcopters dropping grenades.  We've already seen from Russia's attempts that mass artillery bombardment isn't effective as an offensive tactic, at least the way Russia is trying to use it.  And Russia is probably hunkering down in the areas they're occupying.  IMO, for the Ukrainians to take back Donbas and Luhansk, they'll need to wipe out the Russians with precision munitions in order to overcome the lack of overwhelming numbers.

LaineyAZ

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1603 on: May 13, 2022, 08:19:09 AM »
Wanted to add that, as a non-military person, I've been fascinated by reports of Ukrainian's use of personal drones and cell phone location tracking technologies to aid in their military defense and counter-attacks. 
It reminds me of those citizens in Hong Kong using umbrellas or hand-held lasers to thwart the government's use of facial recognition.   

Basic, fast and clever can beat complex, bulky and slow. 

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1604 on: May 13, 2022, 09:38:25 AM »
So, do you think that Ukraine will be able to get it's rightful land back?
I think it comes down to how many precision weapons Ukraine can procure.  Everything from ATGMs to MANPADs to laser-guided artillery shells to quadcopters dropping grenades.  We've already seen from Russia's attempts that mass artillery bombardment isn't effective as an offensive tactic, at least the way Russia is trying to use it.  And Russia is probably hunkering down in the areas they're occupying.  IMO, for the Ukrainians to take back Donbas and Luhansk, they'll need to wipe out the Russians with precision munitions in order to overcome the lack of overwhelming numbers.

When the Russians shell civilian hospitals and schools, it certainly encourages other countries to help Ukraine.  The Russians are helping to "sell" the idea of help to Ukraine around the world.

Apparently, Rand Paul is a tougher customer than the politicians of the world.  he has stifled aid to Ukraine.  In a way I admire his adhering to his libertarian beliefs.  Some of the beliefs seem goofy sometimes, but some don't.

If Russia maintains it's current forces, will Ukraine suffer from being the underdog?  They are receiving both high tech weapons and older Soviet weapons from other nations.  They have captured a lot of stuff from the Russians.  Numbers presented on Wikipedia show they have a large army of reserves available to drive the finite number of Russians from their country.

Some of these video channels I'll refer to as scuttlebut have been stating that Putin is shaking up the top brass in his military.  They state Valery Vasilyevich Gerasimov among others are now out of the Ukraine war.  Will replacement bring better command or will the lower echelon be less skilled and provide worse guidance?  I also wonder if this will make them even less creative in their battle plans as they could be next.  They would then more rigidly follow established and predictable Russian doctrine.


lemanfan

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1605 on: May 13, 2022, 12:46:33 PM »
And four hours from now, the Russian electricity supply to Finland will stop.  This is claimed to be in regards to payment terms (rubles vs euros).  This corresponds to 10% of the Finnish electricity demand and will in the short term be compensated by increased imports from Sweden. Results will probably be higher prices  of energy in Scandinavia in total as the networks are connected. This fall, the new Finnish nuclear plant is hopefully ready and it will replace more than this loss.  More wind power is also added.

Real time view of the Scandinavian and Baltic electricity situation (prices, import/export) is available here: https://www.svk.se/om-kraftsystemet/kontrollrummet/  (in Swedish, but foreign speakers should get the gist of Euros and Megawatts if you scroll down to the maps and graphs).

Source: a Swedish-language Finnish newspaper: https://www.hbl.fi/artikel/elimporten-fran-ryssland-till-finland-avbryts/

At the time of this posting, 948 MW is imported from Russia to Finland. In five hours, this should be zero. 

There has also been recent interruptions in natural gas supply in Ukraine, Poland and probably more countries.  It's a good thing we're not in the coldest part of the year here.

« Last Edit: May 13, 2022, 12:48:35 PM by lemanfan »

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1606 on: May 13, 2022, 01:42:42 PM »
And four hours from now, the Russian electricity supply to Finland will stop.  This is claimed to be in regards to payment terms (rubles vs euros).  This corresponds to 10% of the Finnish electricity demand and will in the short term be compensated by increased imports from Sweden. Results will probably be higher prices  of energy in Scandinavia in total as the networks are connected. This fall, the new Finnish nuclear plant is hopefully ready and it will replace more than this loss.  More wind power is also added.

Real time view of the Scandinavian and Baltic electricity situation (prices, import/export) is available here: https://www.svk.se/om-kraftsystemet/kontrollrummet/  (in Swedish, but foreign speakers should get the gist of Euros and Megawatts if you scroll down to the maps and graphs).

Source: a Swedish-language Finnish newspaper: https://www.hbl.fi/artikel/elimporten-fran-ryssland-till-finland-avbryts/

At the time of this posting, 948 MW is imported from Russia to Finland. In five hours, this should be zero. 

There has also been recent interruptions in natural gas supply in Ukraine, Poland and probably more countries.  It's a good thing we're not in the coldest part of the year here.

Looks like the latest electrical generating unit was timed almost right.

https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Finnish-EPR-starts-supplying-electricity

PeteD01

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1607 on: May 13, 2022, 02:29:33 PM »
Interesting but not yet confirmed:

https://twitter.com/AlexKhrebet/status/1524361427766726656

I was also seeing unconfirmed reports that in the north Ukraine had pushed the Russians back to the boarder. And there's another dead oligarch.

Just want to come back to this for a moment.
I posted the link to the tweet (from two days ago) because it indicated that some Russian units had been observed to establish defensive positions.
From the tweet: "... Russian troops have turned to defence, a Ukrainian General Staff official told a press briefing. ..."

This series of tweets explains well why this can be such an important signal when observed during an ongoing offensive:

https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1525184401541406723

seattlecyclone

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1608 on: May 13, 2022, 03:17:26 PM »
So, do you think that Ukraine will be able to get it's rightful land back?

This could go any number of ways. There will certainly be some sort of negotiation accompanying any end of hostilities. This negotiation will include who gets to control what territory, what reparations (if any) are due from Russia to Ukraine, whether economic sanctions against Russia will end, among other things.

What Russia wants is currently different enough from what Ukraine wants that both sides would rather keep fighting than capitulate to the other side's demands. That is unlikely to be the case forever. As the war drags on, one side or the other is likely to gain the higher ground at the negotiating table and that will be reflected in the eventual peace settlement.

PeteD01

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1609 on: May 13, 2022, 03:57:15 PM »

Michael in ABQ

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1610 on: May 13, 2022, 04:03:31 PM »
They've lost about 2,000 pieces of equipment between tanks, armored personnel carriers, artillery, rockets, trucks, etc. A tank crew without a tank or an artillery crew without an artillery piece aren't going to suddenly become effective infantry.

Try 5,000 pieces of equipment
https://www.minusrus.com/en

I guess I hadn't been keeping track of how quickly the number has grown. Oryx has it at about 3,600 - which is only if there's photographic or video evidence - so it's always going to undercount somewhat. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

Michael in ABQ

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1611 on: May 13, 2022, 04:23:12 PM »
And four hours from now, the Russian electricity supply to Finland will stop.  This is claimed to be in regards to payment terms (rubles vs euros).  This corresponds to 10% of the Finnish electricity demand and will in the short term be compensated by increased imports from Sweden. Results will probably be higher prices  of energy in Scandinavia in total as the networks are connected. This fall, the new Finnish nuclear plant is hopefully ready and it will replace more than this loss.  More wind power is also added.

Real time view of the Scandinavian and Baltic electricity situation (prices, import/export) is available here: https://www.svk.se/om-kraftsystemet/kontrollrummet/  (in Swedish, but foreign speakers should get the gist of Euros and Megawatts if you scroll down to the maps and graphs).

Source: a Swedish-language Finnish newspaper: https://www.hbl.fi/artikel/elimporten-fran-ryssland-till-finland-avbryts/

At the time of this posting, 948 MW is imported from Russia to Finland. In five hours, this should be zero. 

There has also been recent interruptions in natural gas supply in Ukraine, Poland and probably more countries.  It's a good thing we're not in the coldest part of the year here.

Presumably Finland has been paying market rates for that electricity. That's a lot of foreign currency flowing into Russia that's about to stop.

I found one source (S&P Global) that stated Finland purchased 9.2 TWh (9,200,000 MWh) from Russia in 2021. At a an average price of say 80 Euros per MWh ( https://www.statista.com/statistics/1271437/finland-monthly-wholesale-electricity-price/ ) that comes out to 736 million Euros - or about $760 million (and a bunch of Rubles).

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1612 on: May 13, 2022, 04:41:14 PM »
How much does this war cost?  The guy in this video puts the cost to Russia at 5 billion dollars a day.

He has lots of other monetary figures which may interest a lot of you.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=25Wo5GRSPS0

I don't know what Russia is still expecting to get out of this war.  Obtaining the gas and oil of Ukraine probably won't do them any good any more.  The extra farmland of the breakaway Republics should be marginal compared to all the land they can cultivate.

It would be difficult to negotiate with a country that has values so differing from the norm that they appear crazy.  An above pose said they are shutting off a source of electricity to Finland.  That is a self imposed sanction as they lose an established reliable revenue stream.  It's crazy.

Radagast

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1613 on: May 13, 2022, 10:18:31 PM »
So, do you think that Ukraine will be able to get it's rightful land back?
I originally thought maybe, probably not (back in March). But the Russians have continued to amaze me with their stupidness and incompetence. I now think yes for Donbas, maybe for Crimea.

The Ukrainians have been mobilizing hundreds of thousands of increasingly well trained, increasingly well equipped, increasingly well motivated soldiers. They will be very upset if Ukraine surrenders land before they get a chance to take shots at Russians. You can be sure Green Berets and others from many countries are training them into the best possible fighting force, and the US is likely to give $40B more in weapons, again in addition to other countries. The new weapons deliveries will coincide well with the timing for offensives by Ukraine based on their training schedules.

So far the Ukrainians seem to be mostly keeping their original force size in battle. I haven't seen signs of the legions of new troops, so I can only surmise that they are building them up, while their original regular army focuses on maximizing damage to Russia while minimizing their own losses. The Russians are obliging through a series of totally stupid and pointless offensives that do little more than exhaust their troops and materials. I've seen comparisons to an early 2000's computer game AI and that seems about right. I guess once things are ready by a result of Ukraine buildup and Russian attrition Ukraine will launch a massive counter attack with several hundred thousand soldiers. I note that August and December seem like popular historical months for counter offensives, without offering any evidence to support that. That would coincide with 6 and 10 months of training, and Donbas and Crimea?

Crimea will be harder. It is almost an island, with a thin isthmus that will be very hard to get troops across and keep them supplied. Ukraine will basically need to have completely eliminated either the Russian army or have immunity from the Russian air force before they can try it, and possibly have destroyed the bridge as well.

Russia will not negotiate anything that has not been decided on the battlefield. Their negotiating position is conquest of and tribute from all Ukraine, and anything short of that can only be negotiated by force.

Travis

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1614 on: May 13, 2022, 10:26:54 PM »
They've lost about 2,000 pieces of equipment between tanks, armored personnel carriers, artillery, rockets, trucks, etc. A tank crew without a tank or an artillery crew without an artillery piece aren't going to suddenly become effective infantry.

Try 5,000 pieces of equipment
https://www.minusrus.com/en

I guess I hadn't been keeping track of how quickly the number has grown. Oryx has it at about 3,600 - which is only if there's photographic or video evidence - so it's always going to undercount somewhat. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

And he typically has a backlog of 200-300 pieces of equipment to review.

The river crossing that destroyed a BTG's worth of vehicles is estimated to have killed about 500 soldiers.  A couple days later a Russian company-sized element attempted to reassemble the bridge and met a similar fate. Instead of 73 wrecks on the shore there's now over 80.

Ukraine states that Russian losses are 26k KIA with probably 2x wounded. They have 8000 Russian soldiers in bags in the freezer which is a much easier number to verify.

Russian troop strength is difficult to keep track of because they've beefed up their army's numbers with mercenaries and non-Russian conscripts and they don't seem to keep track of them living or dead. The Russian army in total is about 600k which includes conscripts to Generals and infantrymen to paper pushers. The other 300k that you hear about is air force, navy, VDV, and nuclear forces.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1615 on: May 13, 2022, 10:40:46 PM »
At this point Ukraine is completely justified in going after targets on the Russian side of the border as well.

Why should everything in Ukraine be destroyed while Russian soil is untouched? Why should the Russian military be able to gain reprieve and regroup without harassment on their formal side of the border?

The more heavily fortified the Ukraine military becomes over time, and the more advanced weapons that they gain, the bigger the risk to Russia that this will eventually happen.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1616 on: May 13, 2022, 11:03:40 PM »
What a coup. Honestly the Ukrainians are doing so much better than I anticipated. That said, the country is getting devastated. Buildings including hospitals, schools and apartments. Infrastructure (bridges, roads, telecom). And forests and fields burned down. Such an incredible waste.

This whole thing is so so sad.  And sort of counter productive for Russia even with a cynical view...

Finland has just decided to try to join NATO and on Monday there is a parliamentary debate in Sweden which will most probably result in the same for us.  Not really what Putin hoped, I guess.
I know people say that all war is pointless and sad. Even by war standards, this seems especially so. I mean in 2013 Ukraine was basically the most pro-Russian country on earth, thinking they were just two Russian-speaking post-Soviet states together in a hard world. The Ukrainians made a slight effort to try and improve their situation, and for that the Russians attacked. But the really stupid thing is that the Russians have been killing and obliterating Ukraine basically in direct proportion into how friendly they were toward Russia before hand, primarily the Russo-phone Russo-phile east, while the western parts which were indifferent to Russia are largely untouched. I mean, why? Literally everybody on earth is being harmed by this, at bare minimum from higher commodity prices. The exception is those Russia considers enemies, and even then those are not benefiting in the absolute sense, only by strength relative to Russia caused by Russian decline. NATO the organization (but not its members) is a big winner. Russia is getting crushed, as is Ukraine and worse, but Ukraine is made stronger in the long run.

I think a good analogy for autocracies is that they are like a person who cannot feel pain. That may seem like a huge advantage in normal life because pain is mostly just an inconvenience, but over the long run pain is also what keeps us alive. Democracies are acutely aware of pain and always pull back until they are pushed to their limit, while autocracies inevitably go too far. Then it turns out that democracies were in better health. Authoritarians think self examination through freedom of speech is a weakness, a pointless exercise in self adulation, when actually it is a strength which corrects mistakes.

Also, Putin took Russia backward 200 years. Communism is actually a quasi liberal form of government that in general was genuinely attempting to work for the people, even though it was not as effective as democracy and regulated free markets. It was quite a bit better and more legitimate than the old Russian empire was. Putin never made any attempt to work for the Russian people. The Russians keep having revolutions that take them from one terrible government to the next.

gooki

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1617 on: May 13, 2022, 11:17:41 PM »
Quote
So, do you think that Ukraine will be able to get it's rightful land back?

Yip. Russian army will be in no position to defend anything in 3 more months.

lemanfan

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1618 on: May 14, 2022, 12:05:28 AM »
That's a lot of foreign currency flowing into Russia that's about to stop.

This is true. 

Right now the map I linked to shows that there is no electricity flowing directly between Russia and Finland and only small amounts exchanged between Russia and the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania).   Right now, Estonia actually exports electricity to Russia.
« Last Edit: May 14, 2022, 12:11:53 AM by lemanfan »

former player

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1619 on: May 14, 2022, 02:07:20 AM »
Crimea will be harder. It is almost an island, with a thin isthmus that will be very hard to get troops across and keep them supplied. Ukraine will basically need to have completely eliminated either the Russian army or have immunity from the Russian air force before they can try it, and possibly have destroyed the bridge as well.

Russia will not negotiate anything that has not been decided on the battlefield. Their negotiating position is conquest of and tribute from all Ukraine, and anything short of that can only be negotiated by force.

One of the reasons for Putin's timing of the war (which was so bad for so many reasons, mainly to do with the weather)  may I think have been to do with water to Crimea.  Crimea gets its water supply from a canal off the Dnipro river near Kherson.  The Ukrainians blocked this canal and Crimea was running out of water as a result: without opening it up this summer there would have been no agriculture there and drinking water being trucked over the bridge.  One of the first things the Russians did after invading that part of Ukraine was open up the canal.

If Ukraine can retake that land - which would be a very big task, they are currently still trying to push the Russian's back to the Dnipro and are nowhere near getting back across it - they can block the canal again and make Crimea untenable in the long term for the Russians.  The Ukrainians then might not even have to fight on the Crimean peninsula, they could get it by negotiation.

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1620 on: May 14, 2022, 03:22:40 AM »
Looks like the latest electrical generating unit was timed almost right.

https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Finnish-EPR-starts-supplying-electricity
Oh, they finished before the French EPR that should have been the first EPR in Europe in 2012! (btw. costs increased from projected 3,3 to 20 billion there).

I don't think 10% electricity will be a problem for Finnland. It will make it even harder for the Russian economy though.

I also concur that with how things are currently are, every day makes the Russian position even harder.
I think Putins propaganda bites him in the back now. He can't give back any "freed" territory in the Donbass or Crimea, while the Ukrainians, for the foreseeable future, won't stop fighting until they have it. 

PeteD01

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1621 on: May 14, 2022, 06:08:19 AM »
...

One of the reasons for Putin's timing of the war (which was so bad for so many reasons, mainly to do with the weather)  may I think have been to do with water to Crimea.  Crimea gets its water supply from a canal off the Dnipro river near Kherson.  The Ukrainians blocked this canal and Crimea was running out of water as a result: without opening it up this summer there would have been no agriculture there and drinking water being trucked over the bridge.  One of the first things the Russians did after invading that part of Ukraine was open up the canal.

If Ukraine can retake that land - which would be a very big task, they are currently still trying to push the Russian's back to the Dnipro and are nowhere near getting back across it - they can block the canal again and make Crimea untenable in the long term for the Russians.  The Ukrainians then might not even have to fight on the Crimean peninsula, they could get it by negotiation.

^^^^ Precisely


And here is an interesting thread regarding the accuracy of Ukrainian reports on Russian losses:

"The story of this engagement tells alot about the war. In one specific area it provides some really good evidence that Ukrainian claims of Russian losses are far more accurate than many have supposed. In this case, we have a fascinating test."

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1525370885464547329
« Last Edit: May 14, 2022, 06:12:45 AM by PeteD01 »

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1622 on: May 14, 2022, 07:10:07 AM »
Looks like the latest electrical generating unit was timed almost right.

https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Finnish-EPR-starts-supplying-electricity
Oh, they finished before the French EPR that should have been the first EPR in Europe in 2012! (btw. costs increased from projected 3,3 to 20 billion there).

I don't think 10% electricity will be a problem for Finnland. It will make it even harder for the Russian economy though.

I also concur that with how things are currently are, every day makes the Russian position even harder.
I think Putins propaganda bites him in the back now. He can't give back any "freed" territory in the Donbass or Crimea, while the Ukrainians, for the foreseeable future, won't stop fighting until they have it.

Yeh - That big generating unit cost about the same as 4 days of what the Russians spend on their current "special military operation." 

That generating unit should give 60 years of power.  The best thing you could say about the Russian spending is that it gives historians another war to write about.  Other than that only death.

Radagast

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1623 on: May 14, 2022, 02:10:26 PM »
Crimea will be harder. It is almost an island, with a thin isthmus that will be very hard to get troops across and keep them supplied. Ukraine will basically need to have completely eliminated either the Russian army or have immunity from the Russian air force before they can try it, and possibly have destroyed the bridge as well.

Russia will not negotiate anything that has not been decided on the battlefield. Their negotiating position is conquest of and tribute from all Ukraine, and anything short of that can only be negotiated by force.

One of the reasons for Putin's timing of the war (which was so bad for so many reasons, mainly to do with the weather)  may I think have been to do with water to Crimea.  Crimea gets its water supply from a canal off the Dnipro river near Kherson.  The Ukrainians blocked this canal and Crimea was running out of water as a result: without opening it up this summer there would have been no agriculture there and drinking water being trucked over the bridge.  One of the first things the Russians did after invading that part of Ukraine was open up the canal.

If Ukraine can retake that land - which would be a very big task, they are currently still trying to push the Russian's back to the Dnipro and are nowhere near getting back across it - they can block the canal again and make Crimea untenable in the long term for the Russians.  The Ukrainians then might not even have to fight on the Crimean peninsula, they could get it by negotiation.
We had a pretty long discussion on it a couple pages back. But why was this year the big emergency? It really took 8 years to run out of water for agriculture?

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1624 on: May 14, 2022, 03:34:36 PM »
Crimea will be harder. It is almost an island, with a thin isthmus that will be very hard to get troops across and keep them supplied. Ukraine will basically need to have completely eliminated either the Russian army or have immunity from the Russian air force before they can try it, and possibly have destroyed the bridge as well.

Russia will not negotiate anything that has not been decided on the battlefield. Their negotiating position is conquest of and tribute from all Ukraine, and anything short of that can only be negotiated by force.

One of the reasons for Putin's timing of the war (which was so bad for so many reasons, mainly to do with the weather)  may I think have been to do with water to Crimea.  Crimea gets its water supply from a canal off the Dnipro river near Kherson.  The Ukrainians blocked this canal and Crimea was running out of water as a result: without opening it up this summer there would have been no agriculture there and drinking water being trucked over the bridge.  One of the first things the Russians did after invading that part of Ukraine was open up the canal.

If Ukraine can retake that land - which would be a very big task, they are currently still trying to push the Russian's back to the Dnipro and are nowhere near getting back across it - they can block the canal again and make Crimea untenable in the long term for the Russians.  The Ukrainians then might not even have to fight on the Crimean peninsula, they could get it by negotiation.
We had a pretty long discussion on it a couple pages back. But why was this year the big emergency? It really took 8 years to run out of water for agriculture?

Here is what Wiki says:

According to official Russian statistics, the Crimean agricultural industry fully overcame the consequences of blocking the North Crimean Canal and crop yields grew by a factor of 1.5 from 2013 by 2016.[7] The reported rapid growth in agricultural production in the Crimea is due to the fact that, with the help of subsidies of the order of 2–3 billion rubles a year from the budget of the Russian Federation, agricultural producers of Crimea were able to increase the fleet of agricultural machinery.[8][9][10]

These official statistics contrast with reports of a massive shrinkage in the area under cultivation in Crimea, from 130,000 hectares in 2013 to just 14,000 in 2017,[11] and an empty canal and a nearly dry reservoir resulting in widespread water shortages,[12][13][3] with water only being available for three to five hours a day in 2021.[13] That same year, the New York Times cited senior American officials as saying that securing Crimea's water supply could be an objective of a possible incursion by Russia into Ukraine.[14][


You just can't believe anything the Russians say.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Crimean_Canal

This water supply thing is getting to be a bigger and bigger issue in many parts of the world.

Michael in ABQ

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1625 on: May 14, 2022, 04:05:40 PM »
Crimea will be harder. It is almost an island, with a thin isthmus that will be very hard to get troops across and keep them supplied. Ukraine will basically need to have completely eliminated either the Russian army or have immunity from the Russian air force before they can try it, and possibly have destroyed the bridge as well.

Russia will not negotiate anything that has not been decided on the battlefield. Their negotiating position is conquest of and tribute from all Ukraine, and anything short of that can only be negotiated by force.

One of the reasons for Putin's timing of the war (which was so bad for so many reasons, mainly to do with the weather)  may I think have been to do with water to Crimea.  Crimea gets its water supply from a canal off the Dnipro river near Kherson.  The Ukrainians blocked this canal and Crimea was running out of water as a result: without opening it up this summer there would have been no agriculture there and drinking water being trucked over the bridge.  One of the first things the Russians did after invading that part of Ukraine was open up the canal.

If Ukraine can retake that land - which would be a very big task, they are currently still trying to push the Russian's back to the Dnipro and are nowhere near getting back across it - they can block the canal again and make Crimea untenable in the long term for the Russians.  The Ukrainians then might not even have to fight on the Crimean peninsula, they could get it by negotiation.
We had a pretty long discussion on it a couple pages back. But why was this year the big emergency? It really took 8 years to run out of water for agriculture?

Here is what Wiki says:

According to official Russian statistics, the Crimean agricultural industry fully overcame the consequences of blocking the North Crimean Canal and crop yields grew by a factor of 1.5 from 2013 by 2016.[7] The reported rapid growth in agricultural production in the Crimea is due to the fact that, with the help of subsidies of the order of 2–3 billion rubles a year from the budget of the Russian Federation, agricultural producers of Crimea were able to increase the fleet of agricultural machinery.[8][9][10]

These official statistics contrast with reports of a massive shrinkage in the area under cultivation in Crimea, from 130,000 hectares in 2013 to just 14,000 in 2017,[11] and an empty canal and a nearly dry reservoir resulting in widespread water shortages,[12][13][3] with water only being available for three to five hours a day in 2021.[13] That same year, the New York Times cited senior American officials as saying that securing Crimea's water supply could be an objective of a possible incursion by Russia into Ukraine.[14][


You just can't believe anything the Russians say.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Crimean_Canal

This water supply thing is getting to be a bigger and bigger issue in many parts of the world.

The last few years haven't been good for rainfall either:

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/climate-change-may-prevent-ukraine-from-becoming-an-agricultural-superpower/
Quote
The single most striking and alarming factor about the changing weather conditions in Ukraine during 2020 was the scarcity of rain. The Ukrainian agricultural industry relies heavily on rainfall, but rain was irregular throughout the past year and fell 8% below annual norms. Eastern and southern Ukraine registered the lowest rainfall last year, with the Donetk, Luhansk, and Mykolaiv regions particularly hard-hit.


Arab Spring 2.0 is just around the corner. The last time was due to rising food prices - it's going to be much worse now with the double (triple?) whammy of global inflation, reduced exports from Ukraine/Russia, and droughts.

maizefolk

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1626 on: May 14, 2022, 04:21:43 PM »
Arab Spring 2.0 is just around the corner. The last time was due to rising food prices - it's going to be much worse now with the double (triple?) whammy of global inflation, reduced exports from Ukraine/Russia, and droughts.

There are food riots happening right now in Iran and Sri Lanka.

India announced a wheat export ban yesterday.

Export bans worry net importers of rice and wheat, leading them to accelerate buying from any countries still exporting, which, in turn, and panics those same exporting nations leading to more and more countries imposing export bans.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1627 on: May 14, 2022, 05:16:48 PM »
Arab Spring 2.0 is just around the corner. The last time was due to rising food prices - it's going to be much worse now with the double (triple?) whammy of global inflation, reduced exports from Ukraine/Russia, and droughts.

There are food riots happening right now in Iran and Sri Lanka.

India announced a wheat export ban yesterday.

Export bans worry net importers of rice and wheat, leading them to accelerate buying from any countries still exporting, which, in turn, and panics those same exporting nations leading to more and more countries imposing export bans.
Famine is coming to east Africa again as well -

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-61437239

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1628 on: May 14, 2022, 09:47:28 PM »
Well, there are 3 ways for large numbers of people to die: war, disease, and famine.

We've had disease (covid). We've got war (most immediately Russia-Ukraine), and famine is expanding. It's a self reinforcing loop too. Somehow, I don't think the next decades are going to significantly settle down.

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1629 on: May 15, 2022, 01:00:29 AM »
Well, there are 3 ways for large numbers of people to die: war, disease, and famine.

We've had disease (covid). We've got war (most immediately Russia-Ukraine), and famine is expanding. It's a self reinforcing loop too. Somehow, I don't think the next decades are going to significantly settle down.
You forgot the 4th rider: stupidity.

former player

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1630 on: May 15, 2022, 01:37:49 AM »
Well, there are 3 ways for large numbers of people to die: war, disease, and famine.

We've had disease (covid). We've got war (most immediately Russia-Ukraine), and famine is expanding. It's a self reinforcing loop too. Somehow, I don't think the next decades are going to significantly settle down.
You forgot the 4th rider: stupidity.
In all the pictures of the four riders I've seen he must have already fallen off.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1631 on: May 15, 2022, 03:44:55 AM »
To be clear, I hope Ukraine wins and have donated money to Ukrainian charities, but I'd like to throw some "devil's advocate" ideas out there.

First, Ukraine is unified against Russia, which includes Azog brigades that are a bit like the far right parties in the EU.  So after a peace is formed, those people need to be represented in Ukraine's goverment to some extent, to avoid more fighting.  The U.S. managed to stop another Russian invasion of it's neighbor decades ago, but what resulted in Afganistan wasn't good news later.  I believe Ukraine won't be that bad, but it's worth considering what Ukraine might look like after the war.

Second, Russia has threatened to hit Ukraine with tactical nuclear weapons.  Russia seems fine with killing civiilians and even children in Ukraine (like their "for the children" message on a missle that hit a train station filled with civilians).  Russia is running out of ways to make progress in this war, and especially if cornered they might do something desperate.

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1632 on: May 15, 2022, 04:07:37 AM »
To be clear, I hope Ukraine wins and have donated money to Ukrainian charities, but I'd like to throw some "devil's advocate" ideas out there.

First, Ukraine is unified against Russia, which includes Azog brigades that are a bit like the far right parties in the EU.  So after a peace is formed, those people need to be represented in Ukraine's goverment to some extent, to avoid more fighting.  The U.S. managed to stop another Russian invasion of it's neighbor decades ago, but what resulted in Afganistan wasn't good news later.  I believe Ukraine won't be that bad, but it's worth considering what Ukraine might look like after the war.

Second, Russia has threatened to hit Ukraine with tactical nuclear weapons.  Russia seems fine with killing civiilians and even children in Ukraine (like their "for the children" message on a missle that hit a train station filled with civilians).  Russia is running out of ways to make progress in this war, and especially if cornered they might do something desperate.

These Azov guys may have some far right inclinations, but there doesn't seem to be very many of them.  I didn't see it in this descriptive article, but I believe some of them ran for elected positions and didn't win in Ukraine.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/1/who-are-the-azov-regiment

Here's a more descriptive article:

https://www.factcheck.org/2022/03/the-facts-on-de-nazifying-ukraine/

From the second article:

In the 30 years since Ukraine’s declaration of independence, Mierzejewski-Voznyak wrote, “its radical right’s national electoral support only rarely exceeded 3 percent of the popular vote. Radical right parties typically enjoyed just a few wins in single-mandate districts, and no far right candidate for president has ever secured more than 5 percent of the popular vote in an election.” The far right did, however, for the first time win a proportional share of the parliamentary government in 2012 when it won 10.4% of the popular vote. Since then, the far right’s share in parliamentary elections fell to 6% in 2014 and then to 2% in 2019.

It certainly looks like these people had their chance to be represented in the Ukrainian government in the past and as the intent for Ukraine is to remain a democracy, I suspect they will again be allowed to participate.


PeteD01

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1633 on: May 15, 2022, 04:38:46 AM »
A most interesting interview of the head of Ukrainian military intelligence (english subtitles):

https://twitter.com/i/status/1525373625410387973

gooki

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1634 on: May 15, 2022, 05:19:23 AM »
Quote
I believe Ukraine won't be that bad, but it's worth considering what Ukraine might look like after the war.

A throughly bombed country that will build back better than it was before.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1635 on: May 15, 2022, 05:49:09 AM »
To be clear, I hope Ukraine wins and have donated money to Ukrainian charities, but I'd like to throw some "devil's advocate" ideas out there.

First, Ukraine is unified against Russia, which includes Azog brigades that are a bit like the far right parties in the EU.  So after a peace is formed, those people need to be represented in Ukraine's goverment to some extent, to avoid more fighting.  The U.S. managed to stop another Russian invasion of it's neighbor decades ago, but what resulted in Afganistan wasn't good news later.  I believe Ukraine won't be that bad, but it's worth considering what Ukraine might look like after the war.

Second, Russia has threatened to hit Ukraine with tactical nuclear weapons.  Russia seems fine with killing civiilians and even children in Ukraine (like their "for the children" message on a missle that hit a train station filled with civilians).  Russia is running out of ways to make progress in this war, and especially if cornered they might do something desperate.

These Azov guys may have some far right inclinations, but there doesn't seem to be very many of them.  I didn't see it in this descriptive article, but I believe some of them ran for elected positions and didn't win in Ukraine.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/1/who-are-the-azov-regiment

Here's a more descriptive article:

https://www.factcheck.org/2022/03/the-facts-on-de-nazifying-ukraine/

From the second article:

In the 30 years since Ukraine’s declaration of independence, Mierzejewski-Voznyak wrote, “its radical right’s national electoral support only rarely exceeded 3 percent of the popular vote. Radical right parties typically enjoyed just a few wins in single-mandate districts, and no far right candidate for president has ever secured more than 5 percent of the popular vote in an election.” The far right did, however, for the first time win a proportional share of the parliamentary government in 2012 when it won 10.4% of the popular vote. Since then, the far right’s share in parliamentary elections fell to 6% in 2014 and then to 2% in 2019.

It certainly looks like these people had their chance to be represented in the Ukrainian government in the past and as the intent for Ukraine is to remain a democracy, I suspect they will again be allowed to participate.
Very helpful, thanks!  The first article estimates 1k Azog soldiers versus 450k Ukrainian military + reserves (I assume they've called up reserves!), so that makes them about 0.2% of the army, leaving the other 99.8% non-Azog soldiers.  Very interesting how I hear news stories about a group that is 0.2% of the army, as if that mattered somehow.

I flatly reject Putin's claim that the child of holocaust survivors, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, is a Nazi.  I hadn't made the connection between far right and actual Nazis, though.  I guess it's fair to point out that connection.

Consider how chilling it is for Putin to equate far right voters with Nazis.  Germany has the "Alternative for Germany" party, which is far right... so can Putin invade Germany on this theory?  Sweden has something similar, and Russia is threatening over appying to join NATO.

So it looks like the composition of Ukraine's military won't be a factor in elections after the war (whenever that is).  The existing far right vote might even get weaker as so many countries reach out to help Ukraine.

Travis

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1636 on: May 15, 2022, 06:05:06 AM »

Very helpful, thanks!  The first article estimates 1k Azog soldiers versus 450k Ukrainian military + reserves (I assume they've called up reserves!), so that makes them about 0.2% of the army, leaving the other 99.8% non-Azog soldiers.  Very interesting how I hear news stories about a group that is 0.2% of the army, as if that mattered somehow.

I flatly reject Putin's claim that the child of holocaust survivors, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, is a Nazi.  I hadn't made the connection between far right and actual Nazis, though.  I guess it's fair to point out that connection.

Consider how chilling it is for Putin to equate far right voters with Nazis.  Germany has the "Alternative for Germany" party, which is far right... so can Putin invade Germany on this theory?  Sweden has something similar, and Russia is threatening over appying to join NATO.

So it looks like the composition of Ukraine's military won't be a factor in elections after the war (whenever that is).  The existing far right vote might even get weaker as so many countries reach out to help Ukraine.

At this point, Russian authorities have labeled Ukraine, Poland, Finland, Germany, and fucking Israel as Nazis. The word no longer has any meaning.

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1637 on: May 15, 2022, 09:36:00 AM »
From what I can tell, for the Russians, Nazi now means "not Russian", and they're happy to use the Nazi term because they know how everyone else uses it.

For anyone freaking out about the far right in Ukraine's military, please go take a look at the US military. Pot calling the kettle black there.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/09/white-supremacist-group-patriot-front-one-in-five-applicants-tied-to-us-military


Edit:
Finland has announced they're applying to NATO. Russia just keeps winning, huh?
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/15/europe/finland-nato-membership-russia-ukraine-intl/index.html
« Last Edit: May 15, 2022, 09:45:53 AM by Sibley »

maizefolk

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1638 on: May 15, 2022, 09:46:25 AM »
From what I can tell, for the Russians, Nazi now means "not Russian", and they're happy to use the Nazi term because they know how everyone else uses it.

Yup, redefining words so you can use them to attack your enemies while hoping people will hear you  saying the word and think it word means what everyone else uses the word to mean is an icky but common tactic among extremists.

BNgarden

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1639 on: May 15, 2022, 11:05:10 AM »
Some background on "nazism" and Putin's war:

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1497306746330697738

There may be another thread where he discusses this as well.  His whole collection of threads is fascinating; I have little ability to evaluate its contents or thrust, but very interesting.

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1498377757536968711


MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1640 on: May 15, 2022, 03:06:25 PM »
From what I can tell, for the Russians, Nazi now means "not Russian", and they're happy to use the Nazi term because they know how everyone else uses it.

For anyone freaking out about the far right in Ukraine's military, please go take a look at the US military. Pot calling the kettle black there.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/09/white-supremacist-group-patriot-front-one-in-five-applicants-tied-to-us-military

Edit:
Finland has announced they're applying to NATO. Russia just keeps winning, huh?
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/15/europe/finland-nato-membership-russia-ukraine-intl/index.html
I was playing devil's advocate and someone was correcting me, but I don't see anyone "freaking out".  I appreciated getting accurate information, and to pay that forward, the article you cite mentions 18 soldiers out of 480,000 in the U.S. army.  So I'm also not worried so much when 99.996% of the U.S. army are blameless.

Besides Russia's naval losses in a land war (I still love that meme every time I see it!), Finland and Sweden had a prior agreement to act jointly in joining NATO or staying out.  I believe Sweden's application to NATO won't be far behind.

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1641 on: May 15, 2022, 03:17:20 PM »
From what I can tell, for the Russians, Nazi now means "not Russian", and they're happy to use the Nazi term because they know how everyone else uses it.

For anyone freaking out about the far right in Ukraine's military, please go take a look at the US military. Pot calling the kettle black there.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/09/white-supremacist-group-patriot-front-one-in-five-applicants-tied-to-us-military

Edit:
Finland has announced they're applying to NATO. Russia just keeps winning, huh?
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/15/europe/finland-nato-membership-russia-ukraine-intl/index.html
I was playing devil's advocate and someone was correcting me, but I don't see anyone "freaking out".  I appreciated getting accurate information, and to pay that forward, the article you cite mentions 18 soldiers out of 480,000 in the U.S. army.  So I'm also not worried so much when 99.996% of the U.S. army are blameless.

Besides Russia's naval losses in a land war (I still love that meme every time I see it!), Finland and Sweden had a prior agreement to act jointly in joining NATO or staying out.  I believe Sweden's application to NATO won't be far behind.

Wasn't necessarily posting with you in mind and my term of "freaking out" was honestly more directed to the idiots on twitter, but I think that in general the US has found out that various far right ideas have become more common in law enforcement and the military than many are comfortable with.

Agreed re Sweden. I find it amusing that Finland and Sweden, after staying out of NATO for so long are now both rapidly changing their stance. Putin really messed up.

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1642 on: May 15, 2022, 04:36:41 PM »
From what I can tell, for the Russians, Nazi now means "not Russian", and they're happy to use the Nazi term because they know how everyone else uses it.

For anyone freaking out about the far right in Ukraine's military, please go take a look at the US military. Pot calling the kettle black there.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/09/white-supremacist-group-patriot-front-one-in-five-applicants-tied-to-us-military

Edit:
Finland has announced they're applying to NATO. Russia just keeps winning, huh?
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/15/europe/finland-nato-membership-russia-ukraine-intl/index.html
I was playing devil's advocate and someone was correcting me, but I don't see anyone "freaking out".  I appreciated getting accurate information, and to pay that forward, the article you cite mentions 18 soldiers out of 480,000 in the U.S. army.  So I'm also not worried so much when 99.996% of the U.S. army are blameless.

Besides Russia's naval losses in a land war (I still love that meme every time I see it!), Finland and Sweden had a prior agreement to act jointly in joining NATO or staying out.  I believe Sweden's application to NATO won't be far behind.

Wasn't necessarily posting with you in mind and my term of "freaking out" was honestly more directed to the idiots on twitter, but I think that in general the US has found out that various far right ideas have become more common in law enforcement and the military than many are comfortable with.

Agreed re Sweden. I find it amusing that Finland and Sweden, after staying out of NATO for so long are now both rapidly changing their stance. Putin really messed up.

Not entirely by chance that both apply at the same time.  The two countries have a long standing defense agreement.

https://www.government.se/government-policy/defence-cooperation-between-finland-and-sweden/

PeteD01

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1643 on: May 15, 2022, 05:21:55 PM »

Travis

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1644 on: May 15, 2022, 08:40:49 PM »
Some background on "nazism" and Putin's war:

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1497306746330697738

There may be another thread where he discusses this as well.  His whole collection of threads is fascinating; I have little ability to evaluate its contents or thrust, but very interesting.

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1498377757536968711

Kamil is a trusted source of news and analysis.

lemanfan

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1645 on: May 15, 2022, 11:06:55 PM »
  I believe Sweden's application to NATO won't be far behind.

Yesterday, the board of the Swedish social democratic party said yes to a NATO bid and since that party has been the epicenter of Swedish politics for a century, this was probably the final nail in the coffin of the old stance in Swedish polity in this matter.  My guess, it's a matter of days before the final decisions are taken.


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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1646 on: May 16, 2022, 02:43:59 AM »
I remember finding this explainer on the Azov regiment good. Ros Atkins explaining things is generally always worth a look.
https://twitter.com/BBCRosAtkins/status/1507623076812439558?s=20&t=XGOvcS6QYm_EiZautAn-Ig

PeteD01

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1647 on: May 16, 2022, 05:03:40 AM »
For anyone interested, here are two articles about the German Greens and their support for Ukraine, which apparently has surprised many but should not have.
Yesterday, there were elections in the largest German state and the Greens captured more than 18% percent of the votes, which is a spectacular tripling of their previous result in the state and represents a resounding endorsement of their Ukraine and other policies.
All this is excellent news for Ukraine, transatlantic cooperation and NATO, and very bad news for Putin.


(the title is actually misleading)

Germany's Greens Have Transformed in the Face of Russia's War

"The Greens have long been regarded as peace-loving idealists. They are now among the loudest voices calling for heavy weapons to be delivered to Ukraine and have placed considerable pressure on German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to do so. The pacifists of yore have gone quiet and now the talk is of tanks and howitzers."

https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/from-peaceniks-to-hawks-germany-s-greens-have-transformed-in-the-face-of-russia-s-war-a-19bd95f6-fcbc-497d-8ad9-1a767be205f1


Interview with German Foreign Minister Baerbock
"There Are Moments When I Am Also Unsure"

"German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock of the Green Party had been hoping to pursue a feminist foreign policy. Now, she has become a proponent of weapons deliveries to Ukraine. In an interview, she explains how those two things are not mutually exclusive."

https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/inteview-with-german-foreign-minister-baerbock-there-are-moments-when-i-am-also-unsure-a-46b9ca9b-edce-4377-bce7-b40df320c850
« Last Edit: May 16, 2022, 05:44:33 AM by PeteD01 »

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1648 on: May 16, 2022, 05:42:09 AM »
Well, there are 3 ways for large numbers of people to die: war, disease, and famine.

We've had disease (covid). We've got war (most immediately Russia-Ukraine), and famine is expanding. It's a self reinforcing loop too. Somehow, I don't think the next decades are going to significantly settle down.
You forgot the 4th rider: stupidity.
In all the pictures of the four riders I've seen he must have already fallen off.
Nah, he is there. It's just that people can't see him. His existance is only abvious through indirect observations.

Quote
which includes Azog brigades that are a bit like the far right parties in the EU.  So after a peace is formed, those people need to be represented in Ukraine's goverment to some extent, to avoid more fighting.
Well... Asov as a regiment was only made an army part after 2014. And most of them are probably dead now.
They don't have the size to be politically important - nor directly. Maybe if they get hero status for Mariuopol, but here again: If some survive.

Don't forget that Ukraine was maybe the only European country that did not have far right wingers in their parliament - after 2014 and the officialization of the Asovs.

Quote
I flatly reject Putin's claim that the child of holocaust survivors, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, is a Nazi.
For Putin an Ukrainian Nazi is someone who does not see himself as Russian. Everyone who sees himself as Ukrainian is bad, bad is Nazi.
That's about the "thought" process.

About the German Greens and pacifists:

I think there is confusion about the term.  For side A) it means no weapon and fighting whatever happens. For side B) it means avoiding fighting and not using military as a political means.

Or in other words: A) says: You have to defend by holding out the other cheek, while for B) they would never attack, but defend.
That is why the Greens (and others) in Germany where so adamant about Iran/Iraq wars and heavily protested the Afghan war, but group B) which is the biggest has no big problems helping Ukraine. They don't like it, but they know, if Ukraine falls Putin will just go on.

Both sides accuse the other of having a fundamental misunderstanding of reality (here: what motivaes Putin to attack or not attack).
 
« Last Edit: May 16, 2022, 05:55:59 AM by LennStar »

lemanfan

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1649 on: May 16, 2022, 08:21:13 AM »
  I believe Sweden's application to NATO won't be far behind.

Yesterday, the board of the Swedish social democratic party said yes to a NATO bid and since that party has been the epicenter of Swedish politics for a century, this was probably the final nail in the coffin of the old stance in Swedish polity in this matter.  My guess, it's a matter of days before the final decisions are taken.

Aaand now, the formal decision is made in Sweden too to apply to NATO.