Ukraine

[PDXTabs]

It has been suggested that Putin commit suicide.  I don't think he will do that, but there's another approach.  This guy is estimated to be worth 200 billion dollars.  So, if he could be convinced to retire on the 4 percent rule, the guy could buy his own island and far from snowy Russia.  To top it off he is 69 years old.  It wouldn't even be early retirement.  I am sure the Russians would provide him with health care too.

I do not work in or represent any western government but offering amnesty to our enemies is a common ploy. I'm sure that he could live a happily retired life if he wanted to.

[habanero]

A commenter above noted the move to "renewables."  It never seems to be acknowledged that "renewables" do not deliver power 100 percent of the time.  They are backed up by natural gas.  With "renewables," Putin will still sell a buttload of gas to Europe.  He can charge more and deliver less.  He sells a lot of gas to Germany where there has been a strong move to "renewables."

The gas industry fully supports the move to "renewables.'

Fertilizer is also made from natural gas.

Partly true (not true of hydro electric, for instance), but gas does not have to come down a pipeline from Russia, it is already coming to Europe in tankers from the Gulf and North America.  Some of us also have nuclear power.

Germany stated a few days ago they would be 100% renewable in 2035.

There is currently one nuclear reactor under construction in Europe. In France. Construction started in 2007 and its been delayed a zillion times and they now hope it's up and running mid-2023. Finland started one this January. Was orginally planned to go on-line in 2009.

Just to give an idea about the timeframe here.

[pecunia]

I used to work at a nuke plant that was built in about 4 years.  It's still running after more than 40 years.  If they could do it back then without microprocessor based  controls and computer design, they can do it now. 

[habanero]

If they could do it back then without microprocessor based  controls and computer design, they can do it now.

Recent evidence says otherwise. Both the french one and the finnish one are built by french companies, and they are the ones who are supposed to know how to do it. Im quite baffled by how long it has taken, but I know nothing about how to build a nuclear power plant.

Even if they get their shit together and manage to build in a reasonable time frame its gonna take years from the decision is made until a plant goes on-line and its a vast amount of energy that has to be swtiched from natural gas to electric so I guess the grids have to be upgraded a lot as well etcetc. Its an herculean task but it prob needs to be done for several reasons.

That being said, Russia and previously the Soviet Union has always been a reliable supplier of natural gas to Europe. Even at the height of the cold war it flowed and was pretty much disconnected from geopolitics.

Most countries in Europe have a rather massive energy deficit and are dependent on imports from a lot of places.

[Travis]

I used to work at a nuke plant that was built in about 4 years.  It's still running after more than 40 years.  If they could do it back then without microprocessor based  controls and computer design, they can do it now.

Environmental regulations have grown exponentially in the developed world in those 40 years.

[PDXTabs]

I used to work at a nuke plant that was built in about 4 years.  It's still running after more than 40 years.  If they could do it back then without microprocessor based  controls and computer design, they can do it now.

Environmental regulations have grown exponentially in the developed world in those 40 years.

Also, I'm not sure that the supply chain is still there. It used to be that you could procure a bunch of nuclear rated valves etc. Of course you can eventually get some.

[habanero]

I live in Norway and afaik we are pretty much the only country in Europe which is close to 100% renewable on electricity generation (Sweden also pretty close + a few others if you include nuclear). Our power system is around 90% hydro and 10% wind and the beauty of our hydro is that it is largly reservoir-based so it can be regulated and can provide power whenever there is a need for it. We are also "blessed" with large amounts of rain and have high, flat mountrain terrain that allows for construction of massive reservoirs that can store rainwater and melting snow and hold a lot of potential energy that can be converted into electricity wiith over 90% efficiancy even if it doesnt rain for a month. This is a luxury pretty much no other european country has and whatever renewables (wind, solar) will be built will be more volatile and can have long periods of limited production. Even our system is tad flaky, rainfall can vary a lot from year to year and as more and more is gonna be electrified we are gonna need more oompf as well and the potential for increased hydro is limited. And as nice as renewables might be it is very controversial. Hydro means disturbing pristine nature, wind tubines ditto and solar isn't nice to look at. We had a fair bit of wind power built over the last few years but now its come to a stop and prop no new production will enter in this decade bar some crisis which can speed up the process. Offshore floating wind is promising, but it's expensive compared to land-based wind power or offshore based on solid ground and is quite a few years down the road.

Rigs and platforms in the North Sea run mostly on gas-fired electricity generation, but due to the nature of the business there is no shortage of natural gas to fire the on-site power plants. They burn a small share of production and export the rest to mainland Europe and the UK.

Its gonna be very, very hard for Europe or anywhere else to transition to renewables.

[Dancin'Dog]

What's China's position?  Will they take advantage of the situation, buying up all of the surpluses at a discount?  What recourse would the West have if they did? 

[pecunia]

If they could do it back then without microprocessor based  controls and computer design, they can do it now.

Recent evidence says otherwise. Both the french one and the finnish one are built by french companies, and they are the ones who are supposed to know how to do it. Im quite baffled by how long it has taken, but I know nothing about how to build a nuclear power plant.

Even if they get their shit together and manage to build in a reasonable time frame its gonna take years from the decision is made until a plant goes on-line and its a vast amount of energy that has to be swtiched from natural gas to electric so I guess the grids have to be upgraded a lot as well etcetc. Its an herculean task but it prob needs to be done for several reasons.

That being said, Russia and previously the Soviet Union has always been a reliable supplier of natural gas to Europe. Even at the height of the cold war it flowed and was pretty much disconnected from geopolitics.

Most countries in Europe have a rather massive energy deficit and are dependent on imports from a lot of places.

The Chinese built the same type of reactor as the Finn and French reactor in 10 years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taishan_Nuclear_Power_Plant

Now that the design is mostly ironed out, I would expect these units could be cloned.  The first ones of most anything are the hardest.

If build close to a high voltage line, I don't think connecting to the grid would be as difficult as you envision.

It seems like decisions do not need to take forever.  If enough people said "Just Do It," it would get done.

It looks like it would be a wise idea to find an available alternative to Russian gas.

After this war, I think there will be a lot of changes.

[simonsez]

I live in Norway and afaik we are pretty much the only country in Europe which is close to 100% renewable on electricity generation (Sweden also pretty close + a few others if you include nuclear).

Albania and Iceland listed at 100%, Norway at 97.2% per wiki:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_renewable_electricity_production

Denmark the world wind leader by % followed by Lithuania and Germany.

It is nice to watch these percentages move up (if it moved down due to nuclear capacity increasing, I could be okay with that in the right circumstances) all around the world - sometimes I wish it could be a little faster!

[scottish]

If they could do it back then without microprocessor based  controls and computer design, they can do it now.

Recent evidence says otherwise. Both the french one and the finnish one are built by french companies, and they are the ones who are supposed to know how to do it. Im quite baffled by how long it has taken, but I know nothing about how to build a nuclear power plant.

Even if they get their shit together and manage to build in a reasonable time frame its gonna take years from the decision is made until a plant goes on-line and its a vast amount of energy that has to be swtiched from natural gas to electric so I guess the grids have to be upgraded a lot as well etcetc. Its an herculean task but it prob needs to be done for several reasons.

That being said, Russia and previously the Soviet Union has always been a reliable supplier of natural gas to Europe. Even at the height of the cold war it flowed and was pretty much disconnected from geopolitics.

Most countries in Europe have a rather massive energy deficit and are dependent on imports from a lot of places.

The Chinese built the same type of reactor as the Finn and French reactor in 10 years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taishan_Nuclear_Power_Plant

Now that the design is mostly ironed out, I would expect these units could be cloned.  The first ones of most anything are the hardest.

If build close to a high voltage line, I don't think connecting to the grid would be as difficult as you envision.

It seems like decisions do not need to take forever.  If enough people said "Just Do It," it would get done.

It looks like it would be a wise idea to find an available alternative to Russian gas.

After this war, I think there will be a lot of changes.

I'm with Pecunia.    Move the bureaucrats out of the way and things can happen in a reasonable timeframe.      If we get to the point of rotating brownouts we'll start to see this happen.   In the meantime those who keep chairs warm also serve an important role in environmental protection, industrial safety, indigenous rights and so on.

I've always found it annoying that big engineering projects are hard to do efficiently.    There's an old saying:   we can do it fast, we can do it cheap, or we can do it well, pick 2.

[habanero]

I live in Norway and afaik we are pretty much the only country in Europe which is close to 100% renewable on electricity generation (Sweden also pretty close + a few others if you include nuclear).

Albania and Iceland listed at 100%, Norway at 97.2% per wiki:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_renewable_electricity_production

Denmark the world wind leader by % followed by Lithuania and Germany.

It is nice to watch these percentages move up (if it moved down due to nuclear capacity increasing, I could be okay with that in the right circumstances) all around the world - sometimes I wish it could be a little faster!

Remember that its not only electricity generation. Countries that have a fairly "green" electricity production might still rely on natural gas for heating and/or industrial use. Those who don't tend to be small and have another natural resource in abundance (Hydro in Norway's case, hydro and geothermal heat in Iceland's case). For the rest it's pretty much wind and solar. Or nuclear.  Denmark has a lot of wind power but also rely on gas for heating. Denamrk is a net electricity importer also.

European reliance on russian gas has gone up the last years and it's gonna be very, very, very hard to get off that hook.

[seattlecyclone]

If you're Ukrainian and happen to capture an expensive piece of Russian military equipment, you will not be required to declare the value of that equipment as income. Good to know they'll be able to defend their homeland without worry about unwelcome tax consequences.

[former player]

If you're Ukrainian and happen to capture an expensive piece of Russian military equipment, you will not be required to declare the value of that equipment as income. Good to know they'll be able to defend their homeland without worry about unwelcome tax consequences.

Nice one.

[lemanfan]

I live in Norway and afaik we are pretty much the only country in Europe which is close to 100% renewable on electricity generation (Sweden also pretty close + a few others if you include nuclear).

Since Sweden has recently shut down some nuclear, we have increased our electricity generation coming from "burning stuff", mainly oil and gas (and some wood and garbage).

Real time data for scandinavia and the baltics can be seen here, graphs a bit down on the page.

https://www.svk.se/om-kraftsystemet/kontrollrummet/

It doesn't seem to be available in English so a small translation:

Kärnkraft = Nuclear
Värmekraft = Burning stuff
Ospecificerat = miscellaneous, meaning solar + mixed powerplants.
Vindkraft = Wind
Vattenkraft = Hydro

[LennStar]

I live in Norway and afaik we are pretty much the only country in Europe which is close to 100% renewable on electricity generation (Sweden also pretty close + a few others if you include nuclear).

Since Sweden has recently shut down some nuclear, we have increased our electricity generation coming from "burning stuff", mainly oil and gas (and some wood and garbage).

Real time data for scandinavia and the baltics can be seen here, graphs a bit down on the page.

https://www.svk.se/om-kraftsystemet/kontrollrummet/

It doesn't seem to be available in English so a small translation:

Kärnkraft = Nuclear
Värmekraft = Burning stuff
Ospecificerat = miscellaneous, meaning solar + mixed powerplants.
Vindkraft = Wind
Vattenkraft = Hydro

Just for fun the German to it (and no, I don't speak swedish):
Kärnkraft = Kernkraft (mostly would be "Kernenergie" used though, probably in difference to bombs)
Värmekraft = Wärmekraft
Ospecificerat = unspezifiziert
Vindkraft = Windkraft
Vattenkraft = Wasserkraft

[Sibley]

Whew, Ukraine is still there. I check Zelensky's facebook page first thing every morning.

[pecunia]

I saw a report that Russia was using vacuum bombs (Suck out Oxygen and burn very hot) and cluster bombs (Big bomb that blows out smaller bombs).  These are banned by the Geneva convention.  I guess if you decide to do the evil pirate thing that you go all the way.

I hope the Ukrainians are able to capture some of these massive arms from the Russians and Belorussians.

[Travis]

A Ukrainian UAV destroyed one of these thermobaric missile launchers yesterday. Between the MLRS and theater ballistic missiles, Kharkiv is getting pummeled, hitting schools, hospitals, and apartments. It's going to kill hundreds in the next couple days if it keeps up.

[YttriumNitrate]

I saw a report that Russia was using vacuum bombs (Suck out Oxygen and burn very hot) and cluster bombs (Big bomb that blows out smaller bombs).  These are banned by the Geneva convention.  I guess if you decide to do the evil pirate thing that you go all the way.I hope the Ukrainians are able to capture some of these massive arms from the Russians and Belorussians.

Cluster bombs are banned by the Convention on Cluster Munitions. Notable countries that did not agree to that convention are: China, Russia, the United States, India, Israel, Pakistan and Brazil.

[Sibley]

I saw a report that Russia was using vacuum bombs (Suck out Oxygen and burn very hot) and cluster bombs (Big bomb that blows out smaller bombs).  These are banned by the Geneva convention.  I guess if you decide to do the evil pirate thing that you go all the way.

I hope the Ukrainians are able to capture some of these massive arms from the Russians and Belorussians.

There's video all over the internet, pictures all over the internet, and yes, the Ukrainians are capturing or destroying various equipment. If there's a need to prove what Russia used in the future, my guess is its doable.

[former player]

The International Court of Justice is going to hold hearings next Monday and Tuesday, 7th and 8th of March, on the Ukraine/Russia war.  The hearings will be live on video to all comers.

Because Russia's justification for starting the war is an alleged genocide in the Donbas the application to the Court from Ukraine is asking for a ruling under the Genocide Convention that the allegation is false, together with a declaration that there was no such genocide, that Russia's recognition of the breakaway areas in the Donbas as States and its military action are not lawful under the Convention, and that Russia pay reparations for the damage caused by its actions.  It is also asking for the Court to issue provisional measures requiring Russia to immediately suspend their military action.

The application was filed on 26 February and was transmitted to the Russians on 1 March, notifying them that they needed to suspend the military action (ie "act in such a way as will enable any order the Court may make on the request for provisional measures to have its appropriate effects").

https://www.icj-cij.org/public/files/case-related/182/182-20220227-PRE-01-00-EN.pdf
https://www.icj-cij.org/public/files/case-related/182/182-20220227-WRI-01-00-EN.pdf
https://www.icj-cij.org/public/files/case-related/182/182-20220227-APP-01-00-EN.pdf
https://www.icj-cij.org/public/files/case-related/182/182-20220301-PRE-02-00-EN.pdf
https://www.icj-cij.org/public/files/case-related/182/182-20220301-PRE-01-00-EN.pdf

if the Ukrainians win this case then any Russian military taking actions against Ukraine since yesterday could be at risk of prosecution for war crimes.

[Travis]

I saw a report that Russia was using vacuum bombs (Suck out Oxygen and burn very hot) and cluster bombs (Big bomb that blows out smaller bombs).  These are banned by the Geneva convention.  I guess if you decide to do the evil pirate thing that you go all the way.I hope the Ukrainians are able to capture some of these massive arms from the Russians and Belorussians.

Cluster bombs are banned by the Convention on Cluster Munitions. Notable countries that did not agree to that convention are: China, Russia, the United States, India, Israel, Pakistan and Brazil.

Usually we'll use these on an open battlefield where we need to damage or suppress a large area (about 200m sq).  Use in urban areas was extremely rare, and only after a lawyer looked at the target area and gave his recommendation.  The last time we used a cluster munition was performing counter-battery fire near southern Baghdad in April 2003. The reason a lot of countries don't like them is the bomblets have a high dud rate (5-15%). Dud doesn't mean inert. It just means it didn't explode on impact. It can explode later.  We like the capability because its an inexpensive way to hit that kind of target, but we stopped because we haven't been able to build a replacement cluster missile that has a lower dud rate.  The weapon simply isn't practical for use in a city except for terror.

The Russians have also made extensive use of their multi-launch rocket systems. Instead of one missile with 300 grenades in it, think 20 individual missiles hitting a similarly large area, each with a much larger blast radius. The Twitter video I posted a few days ago is a good example.  These are not weapons you use against aimed target, but rather blanket whole areas. 

[LennStar]

I saw a report that Russia was using vacuum bombs.  I guess if you decide to do the evil pirate thing that you go all the way.

I strongly refute this insensible and defamating statement!

Pirates have always been extremely pro-democratic and egalitarian. Nothing like a cleptocrat!

[partgypsy]

Since this was brought up earlier in the thread, here is fact check Ukrainians were attacking/massacring Russian speaking Ukrainians. In fact the pattern that Putin has been doing, of having guerrilla forces in crimea, was done to prevent Ukraine from joining Nato, attempts to destabilize the existing governmemt, as well as provide a pretext to "liberate" (absorb) Ukraine. https://www.wral.com/fact-check-putin-says-russians-face-genocide-in-ukraine/20163715/

[Travis]

Since this was brought up earlier in the thread, here is fact check Ukrainians were attacking/massacring Russian speaking Ukrainians. In fact the pattern that Putin has been doing, of having guerrilla forces in crimea, was done to prevent Ukraine from joining Nato, attempts to destabilize the existing governmemt, as well as provide a pretext to "liberate" (absorb) Ukraine. https://www.wral.com/fact-check-putin-says-russians-face-genocide-in-ukraine/20163715/

Putin always seems to have a battalion of tanks within a couple hours reach whenever a group of Russians claim persecution across the border somewhere.  Russia is fortunate that he's so prophetic.

[pecunia]

I saw a report that Russia was using vacuum bombs.  I guess if you decide to do the evil pirate thing that you go all the way.

I strongly refute this insensible and defamating statement!

Pirates have always been extremely pro-democratic and egalitarian. Nothing like a cleptocrat!

That's actually true.  Now I have to look up cleptocrat.

Kleptocracy (from Greek κλέπτης kléptēs, "thief", κλέπτω kléptō, "I steal", and -κρατία -kratía from κράτος krátos, "power, rule") is a government whose corrupt leaders (kleptocrats) use political power to appropriate the wealth of the people and land they govern, typically by embezzling or misappropriating government ...

Yes - more high class word than pirate, besides, I kind of like Caribbean Pirates and don't like this Putin guy.

[OtherJen]

According to the New York Times, India's URGENT ADVISORY TO INDIAN STUDENTS IN KHARKIV (India in Ukraine Twitter Account, March 2, 2022) is based on intel from Russia:

The Indian government said that its urgent advice that its citizens leave Kharkiv “under all circumstances” by 6 p.m. is based on “inputs that we have received from the Russian side,” suggesting an intensification of attacks on the city may be imminent. (Source)

[Travis]

According to the New York Times, India's URGENT ADVISORY TO INDIAN STUDENTS IN KHARKIV (India in Ukraine Twitter Account, March 2, 2022) is based on intel from Russia:

The Indian government said that its urgent advice that its citizens leave Kharkiv “under all circumstances” by 6 p.m. is based on “inputs that we have received from the Russian side,” suggesting an intensification of attacks on the city may be imminent. (Source)

China has been trying to get their people out as well. The problem is if they don't have EU visas, then they can't cross the border. They can only fly out. Which is a bad idea right now. An Indian citizen died in Kharkiv yesterday.

[Michael in ABQ]

If you're looking for some good sources to keep up to date, here are a few I've curated.

Institute for the Study of War
https://www.understandingwar.org/
This is a non-partisan think tank that posts daily updates including some good maps showing some specifically identified units.

OSINTtechnical (Open Source Intelligence)
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical
Basically, using all the pictures and videos people in Ukraine are publishing (open source) to geolocate Russian forces, equipment, attacks.

Oryx
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop
This guy has been keeping a running count of losses on both sides based only on verifiable pictures/videos. It's broken down by individual types of equipment. He did the same thing in the Ngarno-Karbakh war in 2020. He's a big fan of the Turkish TB2 UAV that Ukraine has a few of. They have been blowing up lots of Russian equipment, including they very anti-aircraft systems that Russia brags can take down these drones.
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
Russia - 467, of which: destroyed: 190, damaged: 8, abandoned: 121, captured: 149
Ukraine - 168, of which: destroyed: 62, damaged: 4, abandoned: 43, captured: 57

[PDXTabs]

I saw a report that Russia was using vacuum bombs.  I guess if you decide to do the evil pirate thing that you go all the way.

I strongly refute this insensible and defamating statement!

Pirates have always been extremely pro-democratic and egalitarian. Nothing like a cleptocrat!

Not to go too far off topic in off topic, but both Atlantic and Mediterranean pirates were notorious for capturing slaves to sell.

[Dancin'Dog]

If you're looking for some good sources to keep up to date, here are a few I've curated.

Institute for the Study of War
https://www.understandingwar.org/
This is a non-partisan think tank that posts daily updates including some good maps showing some specifically identified units.

OSINTtechnical (Open Source Intelligence)
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical
Basically, using all the pictures and videos people in Ukraine are publishing (open source) to geolocate Russian forces, equipment, attacks.

Oryx
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop
This guy has been keeping a running count of losses on both sides based only on verifiable pictures/videos. It's broken down by individual types of equipment. He did the same thing in the Ngarno-Karbakh war in 2020. He's a big fan of the Turkish TB2 UAV that Ukraine has a few of. They have been blowing up lots of Russian equipment, including they very anti-aircraft systems that Russia brags can take down these drones.
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
Russia - 467, of which: destroyed: 190, damaged: 8, abandoned: 121, captured: 149
Ukraine - 168, of which: destroyed: 62, damaged: 4, abandoned: 43, captured: 57

DW has been listening to those twitter feeds almost nonstop since this began.  It appears that Russian trolls or bots have overwhelmed them at the moment.  Hopefully, they can regain control. 

[Blackeagle]

According to the New York Times, India's URGENT ADVISORY TO INDIAN STUDENTS IN KHARKIV (India in Ukraine Twitter Account, March 2, 2022) is based on intel from Russia:

The Indian government said that its urgent advice that its citizens leave Kharkiv “under all circumstances” by 6 p.m. is based on “inputs that we have received from the Russian side,” suggesting an intensification of attacks on the city may be imminent. (Source)

China has been trying to get their people out as well. The problem is if they don't have EU visas, then they can't cross the border. They can only fly out. Which is a bad idea right now. An Indian citizen died in Kharkiv yesterday.

While there have been some reports of non-Ukrainians being turned back, that's evidently not the intended policy.

"All those fleeing Putin's bombs are welcome in Europe," European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said.

"We will provide protection to those seeking shelter and we will help those looking for a safe way home."

In practice, this means everyone, independently of their nationality, is to be allowed to enter EU countries.

Asked about social media reports that some African nationals suffered discrimination and hold-ups when trying to leave Ukraine or get into the EU, Commission officials said they had told border authorities that everyone should be let through.

They're even proposing that foreign nationals who are long-term residents of Ukraine will get the same 3 years of temporary protection as Ukrainians.

Temporary protection would apply to Ukrainian nationals as well as foreign nationals who are long-term residents in Ukraine and those who were already benefiting from international protection or asylum seeker status there.

Those on short-term stays in Ukraine and who can safely go return to their country of origin will not be eligible for special EU protection including a residency permit. This will usually be the case for students, a Commission official said.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-03-02/eu-commission-proposes-temporary-residence-rights-for-ukraine-refugees

[PKFFW]

Usually we'll use these on an open battlefield where we need to damage or suppress a large area (about 200m sq).  Use in urban areas was extremely rare, and only after a lawyer looked at the target area and gave his recommendation.  The last time we used a cluster munition was performing counter-battery fire near southern Baghdad in April 2003. The reason a lot of countries don't like them is the bomblets have a high dud rate (5-15%). Dud doesn't mean inert. It just means it didn't explode on impact. It can explode later.  We like the capability because its an inexpensive way to hit that kind of target, but we stopped because we haven't been able to build a replacement cluster missile that has a lower dud rate.  The weapon simply isn't practical for use in a city except for terror.

Or to put it another way, you've stopped using them for now because you don't find them to be as effective as you want but, as you refuse to be signatories to the Cluster Munitions Convention, you reserve the right to use them when, how, and if it suits.

[Blackeagle]

Usually we'll use these on an open battlefield where we need to damage or suppress a large area (about 200m sq).  Use in urban areas was extremely rare, and only after a lawyer looked at the target area and gave his recommendation.  The last time we used a cluster munition was performing counter-battery fire near southern Baghdad in April 2003. The reason a lot of countries don't like them is the bomblets have a high dud rate (5-15%). Dud doesn't mean inert. It just means it didn't explode on impact. It can explode later.  We like the capability because its an inexpensive way to hit that kind of target, but we stopped because we haven't been able to build a replacement cluster missile that has a lower dud rate.  The weapon simply isn't practical for use in a city except for terror.

Or to put it another way, you've stopped using them for now because you don't find them to be as effective as you want but, as you refuse to be signatories to the Cluster Munitions Convention, you reserve the right to use them when, how, and if it suits.

I'd put it a different way: even with the high dud rate, they're very effective against individual enemy soldiers.  However, they pose a significant risk risk to civilians.  Therefore, they should only be employed in circumstances where their effectiveness outweighs their risk to noncombatants.  Those circumstances almost certainly won't exist in a densely populated urban area.

[Sibley]

Anyone have links to the full interviews with Zelensky? I'm seeing bits and pieces, but not the full thing.

[jnw]

Just read today USA sent Ukraine hundreds of these Stinger Anti-Aircraft shoulder launchers.  Watched a great video on them demonstrating how to use them.. amazing tech.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q0nuhI05QyA

I love how at 1:30 the missile drastically alters course the last couple seconds to hit target.

[Travis]

Usually we'll use these on an open battlefield where we need to damage or suppress a large area (about 200m sq).  Use in urban areas was extremely rare, and only after a lawyer looked at the target area and gave his recommendation.  The last time we used a cluster munition was performing counter-battery fire near southern Baghdad in April 2003. The reason a lot of countries don't like them is the bomblets have a high dud rate (5-15%). Dud doesn't mean inert. It just means it didn't explode on impact. It can explode later.  We like the capability because its an inexpensive way to hit that kind of target, but we stopped because we haven't been able to build a replacement cluster missile that has a lower dud rate.  The weapon simply isn't practical for use in a city except for terror.

Or to put it another way, you've stopped using them for now because you don't find them to be as effective as you want but, as you refuse to be signatories to the Cluster Munitions Convention, you reserve the right to use them when, how, and if it suits.

I'd put it a different way: even with the high dud rate, they're very effective against individual enemy soldiers.  However, they pose a significant risk risk to civilians.  Therefore, they should only be employed in circumstances where their effectiveness outweighs their risk to noncombatants.  Those circumstances almost certainly won't exist in a densely populated urban area.

This right here. I never said duds were a military effectiveness problem for us. They're already an inexpensive munition compared with the alternatives. SecDef's mandate that they drop the dud rate to 1% or less was specifically to address civilian casualties.

[PKFFW]

I'd put it a different way: even with the high dud rate, they're very effective against individual enemy soldiers.  However, they pose a significant risk risk to civilians.  Therefore, they should only be employed in circumstances where their effectiveness outweighs their risk to noncombatants.  Those circumstances almost certainly won't exist in a densely populated urban area.

This right here. I never said duds were a military effectiveness problem for us. They're already an inexpensive munition compared with the alternatives. SecDef's mandate that they drop the dud rate to 1% or less was specifically to address civilian casualties.

That makes not signing up to the convention so much better, lol.

We will reserve the right to use them when it suits us even though we know they pose a significant risk of killing a bunch of civilians, but at least we'll try not to kill too many when we do.

[Travis]

I'd put it a different way: even with the high dud rate, they're very effective against individual enemy soldiers.  However, they pose a significant risk risk to civilians.  Therefore, they should only be employed in circumstances where their effectiveness outweighs their risk to noncombatants.  Those circumstances almost certainly won't exist in a densely populated urban area.

This right here. I never said duds were a military effectiveness problem for us. They're already an inexpensive munition compared with the alternatives. SecDef's mandate that they drop the dud rate to 1% or less was specifically to address civilian casualties.

That makes not signing up to the convention so much better, lol.

We will reserve the right to use them when it suits us even though we know they pose a significant risk of killing a bunch of civilians, but at least we'll try not to kill too many when we do.

Pretty much. Never said we were saints. We killed a lot of civilians in Iraq and Afghanistan. At least we went through the effort of aiming at the bad guys when we did it, and called off plenty of attacks because of civilians. We have a lawyer in every brigade whose job it is to give law of warfare recommendations to commanders. They got a lot of use during the war giving opinions on whether a strike could be justified should there be any civilian casualties.  Our rules of engagement changed a lot throughout the war preventing commanders from firing artillery or airstrikes when it might have aided our troops.  I don't think that's anywhere to be found in Russian doctrine.

[PDXTabs]

Nearly every POW has stated they thought they were either on a training exercise or liberating the country and didn't expect a fight.

Indeed, this is the most embarrassing one I've seen yet. But there is some survivorship bias here. You don't see the videos of the Spetsnaz, presumably because they didn't surrender. I've seen some speculation among US combat veterans that Putin didn't send his A-team, but that Russia does (somewhere) have an A-team. In fact Russia has north of 10k Spetsnaz soldiers.

Elements of the "A Team" were sent in ahead of time disguised in Ukrainian uniforms to conduct sabotage and mark targets for the Russian air force. They've been battled and captured in large numbers as well. There's a photo out there of a dozen laying down handcuffed with their weapons in a pile.

I noticed this video this morning, Funker530: The Surprising Lack Of Modern Equipment On Russian Soldiers In Ukraine. The description includes:

What's interesting with this perspective however is the total lack of modern military equipment present on any of these Russians. Their rifles are bare, they have no optics whatsoever. Their helmets even lack basic night vision mounting brackets, something that the Russians have been displaying in full on all of their Soldiers that were present throughout the Syrian conflict. Even all the way down to their packs and friend/foe marking, the Russian infantryman as we see them in Kherson are entirely underequipped for an operation at the scale they are trying to conduct.

In the United States, we've been spending billions of dollars preparing to engage with the hot new buzz word around the Pentagon. Near Peer Foes are what we've been calling the Russians and Chinese for the past six to eight years. This video however displays a Russian infantryman wearing equipment akin to the gear Marines and Soldiers rode into Iraq with back in 1991 during Operation Desert Shield/Storm.

I don't follow the military very closely, but I do like rifles, so I am aware of the Next Generation Squad Weapon Program (NGSWP) and the kit that US infantry carry. The US government didn't start the NGSWP to battle Warsaw bloc soldiers from the 1970s. They started it because we were worried about our "near peer" adversaries of which Russia is one.

Depending on your point of view you can draw your own conclusions for why this is.

[LennStar]

Yeah, it's a real mystery.

Some say it's because Putin expected to Ukraine army to falter from the first shot, so they didn't bother lossing expensive equipment.
Some say because the soldiers should not look intimidating - they are there to rescue people from Nazis after all.
It may also be some propaganda thing.

But none of that makes sense imho.

It feels like Putin wanted to get rid of old equipment but didn't find a scrap yard with the permit for military stuff.

[PDXTabs]

It feels like Putin wanted to get rid of old equipment but didn't find a scrap yard with the permit for military stuff.

But that doesn't make any sense either. Russia's largest problem over the next 50 years is one of demographics. You don't send a bunch of healthy young men to die for fun.

[Taran Wanderer]

But Putin isn’t looking forward at how to succeed in the 21st century. He’s looking backward at a “glorious” Russian empire from the 19th century.

[former player]

Putin runs a kleptocracy and one of the places his kleptocrats have been stealing from is the military budget.

[Glenstache]

It feels like Putin wanted to get rid of old equipment but didn't find a scrap yard with the permit for military stuff.

But that doesn't make any sense either. Russia's largest problem over the next 50 years is one of demographics. You don't send a bunch of healthy young men to die for fun.

There is probably an equipment gap between the infantry regulars and the spetsnaz.

[waltworks]

Putin runs a kleptocracy and one of the places his kleptocrats have been stealing from is the military budget.

I think this is the most likely explanation. Russia certainly has the resources to equip/fuel/feed their forces better than what we've seen, but if that funding is going into the pockets of generals and officers and oligarchs, and nobody has an incentive to tattle, then there you go.

There's not really an offramp for anyone at this point, though, so my prediction is a protracted deadly conflict that ends with Russia "winning" through sheer numbers. From there they're on the road to being North Korea 2.

-W

[GuitarStv]

It feels like Putin wanted to get rid of old equipment but didn't find a scrap yard with the permit for military stuff.

But that doesn't make any sense either. Russia's largest problem over the next 50 years is one of demographics. You don't send a bunch of healthy young men to die for fun.

Russia is a country of 144.1 million people.

Assuming that Russians official Ukraine casualties are 100x lower than reality to be safe, that only works out to 49,800 people.  Probably not enough to be noticed.

[pecunia]

It feels like Putin wanted to get rid of old equipment but didn't find a scrap yard with the permit for military stuff.

But that doesn't make any sense either. Russia's largest problem over the next 50 years is one of demographics. You don't send a bunch of healthy young men to die for fun.

Russia is a country of 144.1 million people.

Assuming that Russians official Ukraine casualties are 100x lower than reality to be safe, that only works out to 49,800 people.  Probably not enough to be noticed.

I read they lost 15,000 in Afghanistan and they were noticed.  This was over the 10 year period from 1979 to 1989.  Let's say they've lost about 6,000 so far.  It's a much shorter period.  I think the lost young soldiers will be noticed.

You guys are money people.   Putin and his Oligarchs are money people.  Money people deal with Assets and Liabilities.  Having a friend like Putin has been an asset.

All these sanctions seem like they hurt the oligarch guys by freezing their toys and stuff.  It prevents them from making money.  They are money people.  They want to keep making money.  There is this war because Putin has ordered it.  It is because of the war that the toys aren't available.  The war is because of Putin.  Not making money and not having toys is bad.  People that make things bad are liabilities and not assets.  Putin is a liability and not an asset.  Good businessmen remove liabilities.

Is it possible that some of Putin's buddies are no longer his buddies but are pretend buddies?

Is it possible I've been seeing too many gangster movies?

General Question - To me this Ukraine thing is a big story.  I just ran into a few people that don't watch the news and don't want to.  I mentioned Ukraine and they had no clue.   I have a brother a bit like that.  Do you think people like that are the majority?

[Michael in ABQ]

Russia has been touting for years that they can do more with less and are developing all these new weapons. The reality is they can't, and they haven't. It's all been a lie and it's now on full display.


They sent in a bunch of conscripts with decades old equipment - and even the more modern equipment is getting destroyed just as easily by anti-tank guided missiles provided by the US and European allies (Javelin, NLAW, etc.). They've touted active protection systems (basically a system that blows up incoming missiles) but those are nowhere to be seen. Instead, they've mounted metal cages with sandbags on top of the turret of tanks to try and stop Javelin missiles which attack the top of the tank where it's the most vulnerable.

The T-14 Armata tank they introduced years ago is nowhere to be seen because they can't actually build them at scale - just a few prototypes to display at a parade. Even T-90s (introduced in 1992) and T-80s (introduced in 1976) are rare and those are decades old. It's mostly T-72s (introduced in 1969).

They're using just a handful of missiles to try and destroy airfields and in one satellite photo (attached) it showed that only 2 out of 6 hit the tarmac. The other 4 hit the dirt next to the runway causing no real damage. An American strike on a similar target would have probably used 15-20 cruise missiles or precision guided bombs precisely targeted at specific targets (fuel facilities, runway intersections, hangars, control tower, etc.). The thing is, Russia has relatively few precision weapons. They're using modern fighters to drop 50-year-old unguided bombs - and having to fly relatively close to do so - putting them at risk from Ukranian anti-aircraft fire.

This is one reason why they're attacking cities with area effect weapons (artillery, rockets, cluster munitions, etc.) they simply don't have enough precision weapons to actually hit specific targets. Also, it's a terror thing to try and demoralize the military and civilians and get them to surrender or face more civilian casualties.