Ukraine

[Sibley]

I saw, but can not find at the moment, an article stating that we're finding out some of what the West is giving Ukraine because it's showing up on the open source equipment sites! Ie, destroyed, damaged, used to destroy Russian assets, or just spotted.

[PeteD01]

I saw, but can not find at the moment, an article stating that we're finding out some of what the West is giving Ukraine because it's showing up on the open source equipment sites! Ie, destroyed, damaged, used to destroy Russian assets, or just spotted.

This is probably how it is going to increasingly look behind Russian lines with more western military aid deployed every day:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1520038358583545857

[PeteD01]

Good discussion of the current situation in Ukraine, although I disagree somewhat with the idea that an ´agreed, orderly withdrawal´ preserving some of the Russian assets currently deployed in Ukraine is a realistic option for Russia. That may not be something the US is prepared to allow at this stage; unless the Biden administration is bluffing, of course - and I do not think they are:


"NATO countries are supporting Ukraine as it exercises its inherent right to self-defence under Article 51 of the UN Charter. Ukraine is pursuing its own political goals. This is why it is just as important to avoid any suggestion that NATO is imposing war aims on Kyiv as it would be to impose a peace deal on Kyiv. For now there is no great divergence of aims. Lloyd Austin has spoken of weakening Russia ‘to the point where it can’t do things like invade Ukraine’. Although that suggests doing more than ensuring that Ukraine defeats Russia in practice one aim achieves the other. Equally, the ambitious war aims set out by the UK Foreign Secretary on Wednesday evening, including reversing the annexation of Crimea, converge with those of Kyiv.

But they may well prove difficult to meet, and it would be unfortunate to get into the position where Ukraine was somehow seen to have failed if they had not. There is now unity around the proposition that the Russian invasion must fail, and be shown to have failed, but it is probably best if statements about what Western countries would like to see happen be left at that."


https://samf.substack.com/p/escalators-and-quagmires?utm_source=twitter&s=r

[LennStar]

From my armchair, it looks like the Ukrainians are pursuing a "defense in depth" strategy. If that is indeed the case, news of territorial losses in the most severely contested areas by the Ukrainians should be expected in the days or weeks to come:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defence_in_depth#:~:text=Defence%20in%20depth%20

Yes, they are doing it and been before since the start. Also the Russians still have logistics problems, so literally every meter from the border makes it harder for them and often easier for Ukraine.

That said, there have been reports that a hundred Polish Soviet-era tanks simply vanished from their warehouses a couple weeks ago...

Ukraine may now have more working tanks than Russia, as they have captured so many and been more reluctant in using them (and instead did the defense in depth). Russia still has 5 times of that in "reserve", but the quotes there are for a reason. Half of them may be unusable rustbuckets and the other half needs severe work before they are in fighting condition. Not to mention that without a real mobilisation there is no one to man them.

As long as the Ukrainians are willing to fight, I can't see them losing, the West will give them as many weapons as they want, while Russias productionability is restricted to low tech now. 

[PeteD01]

From my armchair, it looks like the Ukrainians are pursuing a "defense in depth" strategy. If that is indeed the case, news of territorial losses in the most severely contested areas by the Ukrainians should be expected in the days or weeks to come:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defence_in_depth#:~:text=Defence%20in%20depth%20

Yes, they are doing it and been before since the start. Also the Russians still have logistics problems, so literally every meter from the border makes it harder for them and often easier for Ukraine.

...

Indeed, they have been doing defense in depth from the start.
But it bears reiterating it as I have noticed some concerns about recent territory gains of the Russians particularly around Izium.
This area is crucial for the Russians but things are not going well for them as evidenced by the tactical command in the Izium area having been taken over by General Gerasimov.
Grasimov is so high up in the military hierarchy that his apparent deployment into the battle zone is rather remarkable.
Under the circumstances, the Ukrainian retreats are probably best interpreted as tactical in most cases, which of course does not mean that there are no losses.
In any case, one should not be unduly alarmed about this.

[pecunia]

From my armchair, it looks like the Ukrainians are pursuing a "defense in depth" strategy. If that is indeed the case, news of territorial losses in the most severely contested areas by the Ukrainians should be expected in the days or weeks to come:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defence_in_depth#:~:text=Defence%20in%20depth%20

Yes, they are doing it and been before since the start. Also the Russians still have logistics problems, so literally every meter from the border makes it harder for them and often easier for Ukraine.

...

Indeed, they have been doing defense in depth from the start.
But it bears reiterating it as I have noticed some concerns about recent territory gains of the Russians particularly around Izium.
This area is crucial for the Russians but things are not going well for them as evidenced by the tactical command in the Izium area having been taken over by General Gerasimov.
Grasimov is so high up in the military hierarchy that his apparent deployment into the battle zone is rather remarkable.
Under the circumstances, the Ukrainian retreats are probably best interpreted as tactical in most cases, which of course does not mean that there are no losses.
In any case, one should not be unduly alarmed about this.

Wikipedia says this about Gerasimov; "Gerasimov was involved in the planning of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.[18][19]"

He  "is a Russian army general serving as the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces and First Deputy Defence Minister, replacing Nikolay Makarov. He was appointed by president Vladimir Putin on 9 November 2012.[2][3][4]"

It sounds like he sets policy for the Russians: "Gerasimov was alleged to have conceived the "Gerasimov doctrine" – combining military, technological, information, diplomatic, economic, cultural and other tactics for the purpose of achieving strategic goals.[6] "

I saw a video that described him as a genius.  However, when I see he planned this "special military operation," I'm not sure what to think.  He may turn this war to Russia's benefit or be dead General #11.

[PeteD01]

A very dangerous individual who can easily be seen as a potential successor to Putin.

[Travis]

From my armchair, it looks like the Ukrainians are pursuing a "defense in depth" strategy. If that is indeed the case, news of territorial losses in the most severely contested areas by the Ukrainians should be expected in the days or weeks to come:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defence_in_depth#:~:text=Defence%20in%20depth%20

Yes, they are doing it and been before since the start. Also the Russians still have logistics problems, so literally every meter from the border makes it harder for them and often easier for Ukraine.

...

Indeed, they have been doing defense in depth from the start.
But it bears reiterating it as I have noticed some concerns about recent territory gains of the Russians particularly around Izium.
This area is crucial for the Russians but things are not going well for them as evidenced by the tactical command in the Izium area having been taken over by General Gerasimov.
Grasimov is so high up in the military hierarchy that his apparent deployment into the battle zone is rather remarkable.
Under the circumstances, the Ukrainian retreats are probably best interpreted as tactical in most cases, which of course does not mean that there are no losses.
In any case, one should not be unduly alarmed about this.

Wikipedia says this about Gerasimov; "Gerasimov was involved in the planning of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.[18][19]"

He  "is a Russian army general serving as the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces and First Deputy Defence Minister, replacing Nikolay Makarov. He was appointed by president Vladimir Putin on 9 November 2012.[2][3][4]"

It sounds like he sets policy for the Russians: "Gerasimov was alleged to have conceived the "Gerasimov doctrine" – combining military, technological, information, diplomatic, economic, cultural and other tactics for the purpose of achieving strategic goals.[6] "

I saw a video that described him as a genius.  However, when I see he planned this "special military operation," I'm not sure what to think.  He may turn this war to Russia's benefit or be dead General #11.

It would be as if GEN Milley left his job at the Pentagon and took command of a Corps-sized element on the frontline in Iraq. It says there are no Russian generals that have Putin's confidence to pull this off.

[former player]

A very dangerous individual who can easily be seen as a potential successor to Putin.

Given the rate that Ukraine is churning through Russian Generals this might not be so much of an option very shortly.

[Vashy]

Many of the cities in that region have now spent a month being blasted by Russian artillery, while the citizens that live there have either fled, died, or sheltered. I'm guessing there's less Pro-Russia sentiment there now than there was 6 weeks ago.

And many cities have spent the last eight years getting blasted by the Ukrainians.

That's actually Kremlin propaganda.

[PeteD01]

Many of the cities in that region have now spent a month being blasted by Russian artillery, while the citizens that live there have either fled, died, or sheltered. I'm guessing there's less Pro-Russia sentiment there now than there was 6 weeks ago.

And many cities have spent the last eight years getting blasted by the Ukrainians.

That's actually Kremlin propaganda.

And it's as absurd as it gets - but the Putinists will parrot it nevertheless.

Here is an analysis of what really happened during the last eight years in eastern Ukraine and why there will be no pro-Russian insurgency in the, soon to be formerly, Russian occupied areas of Ukraine:

How Putin managed to derussify East Ukraine in just 8 years

Kamil Galeev
Galina Starovoitova Fellow @TheWilsonCenter.

"When Putin manufactured the Donbass War he presented it as an Ukrainian inner conflict. Many in Russia bought it. Many in the West bought it. Many idiots even now talk about "Ukraine shelling civilians of Donbass for eight years". Bad Ukrainians being bad, that caused the war"

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1504103672019513345.html

[pecunia]

Many of the cities in that region have now spent a month being blasted by Russian artillery, while the citizens that live there have either fled, died, or sheltered. I'm guessing there's less Pro-Russia sentiment there now than there was 6 weeks ago.

And many cities have spent the last eight years getting blasted by the Ukrainians.

That's actually Kremlin propaganda.

And it's as absurd as it gets - but the Putinists will parrot it nevertheless.

Here is an analysis of what really happened during the last eight years in eastern Ukraine and why there will be no pro-Russian insurgency in the, soon to be formerly, Russian occupied areas of Ukraine:

How Putin managed to derussify East Ukraine in just 8 years

Kamil Galeev
Galina Starovoitova Fellow @TheWilsonCenter.

"When Putin manufactured the Donbass War he presented it as an Ukrainian inner conflict. Many in Russia bought it. Many in the West bought it. Many idiots even now talk about "Ukraine shelling civilians of Donbass for eight years". Bad Ukrainians being bad, that caused the war"

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1504103672019513345.html

That was a good link.  It made some order out of chaos for me.  It was like finding the key that fit the lock of explanation.  Once again, I drank the Kool Aid.

I think Transnistria is similar, yet different.  If the explosions continue in the next few weeks there, it will be the Russians attempting to make it fit the pattern. 

[lemanfan]

I think Transnistria is similar, yet different.  If the explosions continue in the next few weeks there, it will be the Russians attempting to make it fit the pattern.

I just spoke with an acquaintance here in town who comes from Transnistria and whose father still lives there. Since the whole family (mainly in Transnistria and Moldova but some elsewhere) is involved in helping fleeing Ukrainians right now, they all seems to be on "our" side when it comes to views on Russia and Putin right now.

They are worried about the recent explosions there, of course, and from my understanding all think they are caused by Russia.  At least according to the guy I spoke to.  Of course, I don't know how representative they are.

[Vashy]

I think Transnistria is similar, yet different.  If the explosions continue in the next few weeks there, it will be the Russians attempting to make it fit the pattern.

I just spoke with an acquaintance here in town who comes from Transnistria and whose father still lives there. Since the whole family (mainly in Transnistria and Moldova but some elsewhere) is involved in helping fleeing Ukrainians right now, they all seems to be on "our" side when it comes to views on Russia and Putin right now.

They are worried about the recent explosions there, of course, and from my understanding all think they are caused by Russia.  At least according to the guy I spoke to.  Of course, I don't know how representative they are.

Moldova/Transnistria will get the same playbook treatment as Ukraine/Donbas.

[lemanfan]

I think Transnistria is similar, yet different.  If the explosions continue in the next few weeks there, it will be the Russians attempting to make it fit the pattern.

I just spoke with an acquaintance here in town who comes from Transnistria and whose father still lives there. Since the whole family (mainly in Transnistria and Moldova but some elsewhere) is involved in helping fleeing Ukrainians right now, they all seems to be on "our" side when it comes to views on Russia and Putin right now.

They are worried about the recent explosions there, of course, and from my understanding all think they are caused by Russia.  At least according to the guy I spoke to.  Of course, I don't know how representative they are.

Moldova/Transnistria will get the same playbook treatment as Ukraine/Donbas.

That is clearly a risk.  :(

[pecunia]

I think Transnistria is similar, yet different.  If the explosions continue in the next few weeks there, it will be the Russians attempting to make it fit the pattern.

I just spoke with an acquaintance here in town who comes from Transnistria and whose father still lives there. Since the whole family (mainly in Transnistria and Moldova but some elsewhere) is involved in helping fleeing Ukrainians right now, they all seems to be on "our" side when it comes to views on Russia and Putin right now.

They are worried about the recent explosions there, of course, and from my understanding all think they are caused by Russia.  At least according to the guy I spoke to.  Of course, I don't know how representative they are.

Moldova/Transnistria will get the same playbook treatment as Ukraine/Donbas.

That is clearly a risk.  :(

If Moldova allied with Ukraine in the fight, I see them as a small asset.  This is what Wikipedia says:

A transition to a professional force of 12,000 to 15,000 volunteers was planned at first, but when fighting erupted in 1991 between supporters of the central government in Chișinău and supporters of separatist regions (Transnistria conflict), males between eighteen and forty years of age were mobilized, and the size of Moldova's military was temporarily expanded to meet the demands of the Transnistria War.[6] In early 1995, the armed forces totaled some 11,000 volunteers, and there were plans to gradually create a professional army, similar to that of the United States.

The country is neither in NATO nor the EU.  It is supposed to be very poor.

The Russian army has a military base, a large ammunition dump and about 1,500 soldiers stationed in breakaway Transnistria, stating that they are there as "peacekeepers".[105]

This part struck me as very unusual:

As of 2009 the population of Transnistria comprised about 555,000 people. Ninety percent of the population of Transnistria are citizens of Transnistria.[67] Transnistrians may have dual, triple or even quadruple citizenship of internationally recognised countries, including:

    Citizens of Moldova:[68] around 300,000 people (including dual citizens of Moldova and Russia, around 20,000[69]) or of Moldova and the EU states (around 80%) of Romania,[70][71] Bulgaria, or the Czech Republic
    Citizens of Romania: unknown number[72]
    Citizens of Russia: around 150,000 people (including around 15,000 dual citizens of Belarus, Israel, Turkey); excluding those holding dual citizenship of Russia and of Moldova (around 20,000)
    Citizens of Ukraine: around 100,000 people[73] There are around 20,000–30,000 people with dual citizenship (Moldova and Ukraine, or Russia and Ukraine) or triple citizenship (Moldova, Russia and Ukraine). They are included in the number of Ukrainian citizens.[74]
    Persons without citizenship: around 20,000–30,000 people[citation needed]

It seems like lots of Russians live in Transnistria.  It looks like a little more than a fourth of the total population.

[PeteD01]

Germany just approved the shipment of 1000 anti-tank and 500 Stinger anti-aircraft weapons to Ukraine.
This is significcant because Germany is involved in the development and production of weaponry in Europe and retains veto rights against export of such weaponry into crisis regions and has exercised this veto aggressively in the past.

Germany has also agreed to remove Russia from the SWIFT system.

These are aggressive moves by Germany.
I should have written "These are aggressive moves for Germany"

Not quite. Germany is talking about removing Russia from the SWIFT system - but with carveouts for energy. So basically, they don't want to actually feel the pain (and make Russia feel the pain) of cutting off oil and natural gas sales - which compose a large percentage of Germany's energy supply. Across the EU about 40% of their natural gas comes from Russia (along with oil and coal). Germany gets about that much and with more than half their natural gas going to manufacturing, it would be a huge hit to their economy which is heavily focused on manufacturing and exports.

https://geopoliticalfutures.com/live-updates-on-ukraine-war/

Germany supports “targeted and functional” limits on Russian access to the SWIFT global interbank payment system, its foreign and economy ministers said. Berlin had been the major holdout in Europe against imposing the measure, whose economic impact would be significant. However, the ministers’ statement said SWIFT exclusion should be crafted in such a way that it “affects the right people.” Finance Minister Christian Lindner was more specific, saying, “necessary deliveries of raw materials” (read: Russian energy exports) should not be disrupted by the move.

Original source article (in German) https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/ukraine-krieg-ein-swift-ausschluss-der-die-richtigen-trifft-europa-einig-ueber-naechste-sanktion-gegen-russland/28110092.html

The SWIFT carveouts have a lot to do with limiting impact to EU which may be crucial for sustainability of the sanction; particularly when considering that the impact might be more severe for nations in the EU other than Germany.
It is complicated, but thank the gods for the German Green Party to be part of the government.

I mentioned earlier in the thread that the German Green Party is fortunately part of the German government coalition, with foreign minister Annalena Baerbock and minister of the economy Robert Habeck apparently Germany´s most popular politicians at this time.

https://twitter.com/GermanGreens/status/1519732256335613953


Yesterday, the "basis" of the Green Party (Bündnis ’90/Die Grünen) overwhelmingly approved of supporting Ukraine with heavy weapons etc. and of the massive expansion of the German defense budget at  their ´small´congress in Düsseldorf.
This is excellent news for Ukraine, NATO and the US effort. Slava Ukraini!

https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/gruene-parteitag-waffenlieferung-ukraine-krieg-russland-100.html


(There is a lot written in the German press about the "surprising turnaround" of the Greens on matters of military etc. This is all complete nonsense.
If anything, the Bündnis ’90/Die Grünen are the least corrupted party when it comes to Russia, and likely are the most reliable but sometimes critical partner in issues of transatlantic and European cooperation.
There is nothing naive about them and the incorporation of direct democratic features into policy making is a strength not a weakness, as it puts even more weight behind the policy.
FYI, I have been watching the party since inception around 1980)   

[lemanfan]

This part struck me as very unusual:

As of 2009 the population of Transnistria comprised about 555,000 people. Ninety percent of the population of Transnistria are citizens of Transnistria.[67] Transnistrians may have dual, triple or even quadruple citizenship of internationally recognised countries, including:

    Citizens of Moldova:[68] around 300,000 people (including dual citizens of Moldova and Russia, around 20,000[69]) or of Moldova and the EU states (around 80%) of Romania,[70][71] Bulgaria, or the Czech Republic
    Citizens of Romania: unknown number[72]
    Citizens of Russia: around 150,000 people (including around 15,000 dual citizens of Belarus, Israel, Turkey); excluding those holding dual citizenship of Russia and of Moldova (around 20,000)
    Citizens of Ukraine: around 100,000 people[73] There are around 20,000–30,000 people with dual citizenship (Moldova and Ukraine, or Russia and Ukraine) or triple citizenship (Moldova, Russia and Ukraine). They are included in the number of Ukrainian citizens.[74]
    Persons without citizenship: around 20,000–30,000 people[citation needed]

It seems like lots of Russians live in Transnistria.  It looks like a little more than a fourth of the total population.

The history of Moldova is kind of messy several hundred years back, torn between empires like the Ottomans and the Russians.  If you are a young person in Transnistria, it is clearly an advantage to get e.g. a Russian passport since the Russians are about the only sponsor of that "nation", and getting e.g. an EU passport (like a a Romanian) will allow you to live and work anywhere in the EU with much less paperwork than if you're from the outside.

[maizefolk]

Yeah, living in (and specifically being born in) a place that considers itself an independent country but not recognized as an independent country sucks for a lot of reasons but one is travel:

Right now a kid born in Transnistria could get a Transnistrian passport issued to them, but there aren't any countries that recognize Transnistria as a country (with the exceptions of Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Artsakh all of which arguably aren't countries themselves), so that passport won't let you go anywhere (except Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Artsakh). Hence the strong incentive for folks living in the region to find a way to qualify for passport citizenship in some more generally internationally recognized country.

[Travis]

A very dangerous individual who can easily be seen as a potential successor to Putin.

Given the rate that Ukraine is churning through Russian Generals this might not be so much of an option very shortly.

In theater for 48 hours and Ukrainian forces already taking a swing at him. Unconfirmed, but apparently several members of his entourage were killed or wounded and he was wounded in the leg.

https://twitter.com/legioner61/status/1520762669841760257?t=50Pf4erJ2YWekSbSI_ImGQ&s=19

And the Chief of Staff of 2nd CAA also killed earlier.

https://news.yahoo.com/russian-general-commanded-electronic-warfare-115447368.html

[Sibley]

How many generals does Russia have? It would be helpful for scale, because Ukraine keeps killing them. If Russia has 100 generals, that's one context. It's quite another if there's 1000. And I have no idea.

[PeteD01]

A very dangerous individual who can easily be seen as a potential successor to Putin.

Given the rate that Ukraine is churning through Russian Generals this might not be so much of an option very shortly.

In theater for 48 hours and Ukrainian forces already taking a swing at him. Unconfirmed, but apparently several members of his entourage were killed or wounded and he was wounded in the leg.

https://twitter.com/legioner61/status/1520762669841760257?t=50Pf4erJ2YWekSbSI_ImGQ&s=19

And the Chief of Staff of 2nd CAA also killed earlier.

https://news.yahoo.com/russian-general-commanded-electronic-warfare-115447368.html

Moving General Gerasimov into theater and creating a vortex of electronic and high value target activity around him must rank among the most idiotic decisions the Russians have made so far.
In fact, it is so obviously idiotic that one might be inclined to see this as an attempt to eliminate a threat to Putin himself, but that might give Putin too much credit.
More likely, they are stuck in a reactive mode trying to demonstrate control of the situation. And then reality bites, like it always does.

[pecunia]

I've seen this one in several places.  Apparently, Putin is getting his soldiers from near Lake Baikal.  These Asian guys wanted loot as much as the Chechens.  The Chechens took their loot.  So the Russian soldiers got in a shooting battle with each other.

https://odessa-journal.com/the-shooting-of-buryats-with-chechens-cannot-share-the-spoils/

There is no honor among thieves.

[YttriumNitrate]

How many generals does Russia have? It would be helpful for scale, because Ukraine keeps killing them. If Russia has 100 generals, that's one context. It's quite another if there's 1000. And I have no idea.

From what I've found, it seems like Russia has about 1,100 generals/admirals. For comparison, the US has 600-something generals/admirals. Russia also has about 2/3 the number of soldiers as the US, so Russia losing a general is not the same as the US losing a general. There was a plane crash in the early 80s that wiped out 28 Russian generals/admirals.

[Sibley]

How many generals does Russia have? It would be helpful for scale, because Ukraine keeps killing them. If Russia has 100 generals, that's one context. It's quite another if there's 1000. And I have no idea.

From what I've found, it seems like Russia has about 1,100 generals/admirals. For comparison, the US has 600-something generals/admirals. Russia also has about 2/3 the number of soldiers as the US, so Russia losing a general is not the same as the US losing a general. There was a plane crash in the early 80s that wiped out 28 Russian generals/admirals.

That is helpful to know, thank you. My googling wasn't coming up with anything productive.

So, until the number of dead generals starts getting into triple digits, it's probably not really significant. (Unless an actually significant general such as Gerasimov is killed of course.)

Incidentally, I saw that Ukraine knew that Gerasimov was present at the attack location, but not in time. So he had left just prior to the attack.

[pecunia]

How many generals does Russia have? It would be helpful for scale, because Ukraine keeps killing them. If Russia has 100 generals, that's one context. It's quite another if there's 1000. And I have no idea.

From what I've found, it seems like Russia has about 1,100 generals/admirals. For comparison, the US has 600-something generals/admirals. Russia also has about 2/3 the number of soldiers as the US, so Russia losing a general is not the same as the US losing a general. There was a plane crash in the early 80s that wiped out 28 Russian generals/admirals.

That is helpful to know, thank you. My googling wasn't coming up with anything productive.

So, until the number of dead generals starts getting into triple digits, it's probably not really significant. (Unless an actually significant general such as Gerasimov is killed of course.)

Incidentally, I saw that Ukraine knew that Gerasimov was present at the attack location, but not in time. So he had left just prior to the attack.

Reminds me of these companies that are management heavy.  I wonder if all that duplication of management leads to inefficiencies.  Too many chiefs and they are looking for more indians.

[Just Joe]

Except those people have had plenty of experience, both direct and indirect, with what it means to be governed by Russia. Don't be so sure that they're still pro-Russia.

Rather than black and white, there are many messy shades of gray. Some people will be pro-Russian, and some people will be anti-Russian. The higher number of pro-Russian people the less the Ukrainian forces would be fighting "on their home turf." I'm guessing the pro-/anti- ratio is more favorable to Russia in the far eastern parts of Ukraine than Kiev.

Or the Ukranian gov't could say: "hey. here is $10K. Go live in Russia. You don't like us. We don't want you here. Good luck to you."
 

[YttriumNitrate]

Or the Ukranian gov't could say: "hey. here is $10K. Go live in Russia. You don't like us. We don't want you here. Good luck to you."

Since 2014, most of the refugees from that region have fled to Russia rather than other parts of Ukraine.

Based on your comment, I assume you'll think it's fine if a Pro-Russian government installed in the Donbas region tells the pro-Ukranian people there to "Go live in western Urkaine. You don't like us. We don't want you here. Good luck to you."

[Sibley]

Or the Ukranian gov't could say: "hey. here is $10K. Go live in Russia. You don't like us. We don't want you here. Good luck to you."

Since 2014, most of the refugees from that region have fled to Russia rather than other parts of Ukraine.

Based on your comment, I assume you'll think it's fine if a Pro-Russian government installed in the Donbas region tells the pro-Ukranian people there to "Go live in western Urkaine. You don't like us. We don't want you here. Good luck to you."

It's not the same though. It's Ukrainian territory (just held by Russia at the moment, which I don't think is going to be permanent). Thus someone living there who prefers to be governed by Russia is perfectly within their rights to relocate to Russia. Not icky at all. If Ukraine were to offer a sum of money to people who wished to relocate to Russia, but they're not forcing them to leave or to take the money, then it's icky but not horrifically icky.

If Russia kicks out the Ukrainians, then those people aren't voluntarily relocating, they're being forced to. That's horrifically icky.

And yes, I'm sure there are specific terms for icky and horrifically icky, but it's Monday and I can't think of them. You get the idea though.

[pecunia]

Or the Ukranian gov't could say: "hey. here is $10K. Go live in Russia. You don't like us. We don't want you here. Good luck to you."

Since 2014, most of the refugees from that region have fled to Russia rather than other parts of Ukraine.

Based on your comment, I assume you'll think it's fine if a Pro-Russian government installed in the Donbas region tells the pro-Ukranian people there to "Go live in western Urkaine. You don't like us. We don't want you here. Good luck to you."

It may be more likely that the Russians would haul them off to Siberia as they have been doing with other civilians in Ukraine.  Why give up the free labor?

[TomTX]

Or the Ukranian gov't could say: "hey. here is $10K. Go live in Russia. You don't like us. We don't want you here. Good luck to you."

Since 2014, most of the refugees from that region have fled to Russia rather than other parts of Ukraine.

Based on your comment, I assume you'll think it's fine if a Pro-Russian government installed in the Donbas region tells the pro-Ukranian people there to "Go live in western Urkaine. You don't like us. We don't want you here. Good luck to you."

It's not the same though. It's Ukrainian territory (just held by Russia at the moment, which I don't think is going to be permanent). Thus someone living there who prefers to be governed by Russia is perfectly within their rights to relocate to Russia. Not icky at all. If Ukraine were to offer a sum of money to people who wished to relocate to Russia, but they're not forcing them to leave or to take the money, then it's icky but not horrifically icky.

If Russia kicks out the Ukrainians, then those people aren't voluntarily relocating, they're being forced to. That's horrifically icky.

That's not what Russia is doing.

Russia has kidnapped and enslaved hundreds of thousands Ukrainians.

[Sibley]

Or the Ukranian gov't could say: "hey. here is $10K. Go live in Russia. You don't like us. We don't want you here. Good luck to you."

Since 2014, most of the refugees from that region have fled to Russia rather than other parts of Ukraine.

Based on your comment, I assume you'll think it's fine if a Pro-Russian government installed in the Donbas region tells the pro-Ukranian people there to "Go live in western Urkaine. You don't like us. We don't want you here. Good luck to you."

It's not the same though. It's Ukrainian territory (just held by Russia at the moment, which I don't think is going to be permanent). Thus someone living there who prefers to be governed by Russia is perfectly within their rights to relocate to Russia. Not icky at all. If Ukraine were to offer a sum of money to people who wished to relocate to Russia, but they're not forcing them to leave or to take the money, then it's icky but not horrifically icky.

If Russia kicks out the Ukrainians, then those people aren't voluntarily relocating, they're being forced to. That's horrifically icky.

That's not what Russia is doing.

Russia has kidnapped and enslaved hundreds of thousands Ukrainians.

Yes, I know. I was responding specifically to the scenarios Just Joe and YttriumNitrate mentioned. What Russia is actually doing is beyond horrifically icky.

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

Kremlinology is alive and well: Putin to undergo cancer surgery, transfer power to ex-FSB chief: report

[Sibley]

Kremlinology is alive and well: Putin to undergo cancer surgery, transfer power to ex-FSB chief: report

"according to a video from the mysterious Telegram channel “General SVR” on Saturday."

Fake news. Until one of the intelligence agencies, the Ukrainian government, or Russian news says something, it's a rumor. And if Russian news says it, its probably still false but at least you can extrapolate what the truth likely is based on the falsehood.

[pecunia]

Kremlinology is alive and well: Putin to undergo cancer surgery, transfer power to ex-FSB chief: report

"according to a video from the mysterious Telegram channel “General SVR” on Saturday."

Fake news. Until one of the intelligence agencies, the Ukrainian government, or Russian news says something, it's a rumor. And if Russian news says it, its probably still false but at least you can extrapolate what the truth likely is based on the falsehood.

The more I learn about the Russian guys, the more I think they are a culture that retains mysterious mystic beliefs.  From the link:

Putin is said to bathe in the blood extracted from deer antlers, which are hacked off while they are growing and still full of fresh blood, the outlet said. The sickening “antler baths” are an alternative therapy in the Altai region of Russia, which borders Khazakstan and Mongolia.

After this war is said and done, Hollywood is going to have fun making a movie about this Putin guy.

[Sibley]

Germany said today that they would support an immediate Russian oil embargo. It would not apply to gas. It sounds like they've made some pretty dramatic progress in reducing their imports of Russian oil/gas though, which is good.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/civilians-evacuated-mariupol-pelosi-meets-ukraines-zelenskiy-2022-05-02/

[PeteD01]

Germany is sending 7 PzH 2000s, self-propelled armored howitzers to Ukraine.
This is a political decision that overrides the objections og the German military.
@NotWoofers does not know why this "sudden turnaround" happened, but avid readers of this thread should have an understanding.



https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1521475720358281216

[Just Joe]

Or the Ukranian gov't could say: "hey. here is $10K. Go live in Russia. You don't like us. We don't want you here. Good luck to you."

Since 2014, most of the refugees from that region have fled to Russia rather than other parts of Ukraine.

Based on your comment, I assume you'll think it's fine if a Pro-Russian government installed in the Donbas region tells the pro-Ukranian people there to "Go live in western Urkaine. You don't like us. We don't want you here. Good luck to you."

Nope. Ukraine ought to be able to protect its borders and govern all its regions.

[Michael in ABQ]

Kremlinology is alive and well: Putin to undergo cancer surgery, transfer power to ex-FSB chief: report

"according to a video from the mysterious Telegram channel “General SVR” on Saturday."

Fake news. Until one of the intelligence agencies, the Ukrainian government, or Russian news says something, it's a rumor. And if Russian news says it, its probably still false but at least you can extrapolate what the truth likely is based on the falsehood.

The more I learn about the Russian guys, the more I think they are a culture that retains mysterious mystic beliefs.  From the link:

Putin is said to bathe in the blood extracted from deer antlers, which are hacked off while they are growing and still full of fresh blood, the outlet said. The sickening “antler baths” are an alternative therapy in the Altai region of Russia, which borders Khazakstan and Mongolia.

After this war is said and done, Hollywood is going to have fun making a movie about this Putin guy.

That just sounds absurd. You would need a herd of 1,000 deer to get enough blood to bathe in. How could this have ever developed as a therapy if the only person rich enough to afford it is the president? This would literally cost tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars in labor alone just to get enough people cutting off deer antlers and capturing the blood to get the tens of gallons necessary to actually bathe in (less if it was just poured over someone).

[pecunia]

Kremlinology is alive and well: Putin to undergo cancer surgery, transfer power to ex-FSB chief: report

"according to a video from the mysterious Telegram channel “General SVR” on Saturday."

Fake news. Until one of the intelligence agencies, the Ukrainian government, or Russian news says something, it's a rumor. And if Russian news says it, its probably still false but at least you can extrapolate what the truth likely is based on the falsehood.

The more I learn about the Russian guys, the more I think they are a culture that retains mysterious mystic beliefs.  From the link:

Putin is said to bathe in the blood extracted from deer antlers, which are hacked off while they are growing and still full of fresh blood, the outlet said. The sickening “antler baths” are an alternative therapy in the Altai region of Russia, which borders Khazakstan and Mongolia.

After this war is said and done, Hollywood is going to have fun making a movie about this Putin guy.

That just sounds absurd. You would need a herd of 1,000 deer to get enough blood to bathe in. How could this have ever developed as a therapy if the only person rich enough to afford it is the president? This would literally cost tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars in labor alone just to get enough people cutting off deer antlers and capturing the blood to get the tens of gallons necessary to actually bathe in (less if it was just poured over someone).

Maybe, the mix is watered down.  It kinda sorta fits.  I saw a video of Putin speaking English.  It was just like an old Vampire movie.  Come to think of it he looks like the actor in the old black and white "Nosferatu" film.

Looks like he is getting Cancer surgery.

https://nypost.com/2022/05/02/vladimir-putin-to-undergo-cancer-surgery-transfer-power/

[Sibley]

Kremlinology is alive and well: Putin to undergo cancer surgery, transfer power to ex-FSB chief: report

"according to a video from the mysterious Telegram channel “General SVR” on Saturday."

Fake news. Until one of the intelligence agencies, the Ukrainian government, or Russian news says something, it's a rumor. And if Russian news says it, its probably still false but at least you can extrapolate what the truth likely is based on the falsehood.

The more I learn about the Russian guys, the more I think they are a culture that retains mysterious mystic beliefs.  From the link:

Putin is said to bathe in the blood extracted from deer antlers, which are hacked off while they are growing and still full of fresh blood, the outlet said. The sickening “antler baths” are an alternative therapy in the Altai region of Russia, which borders Khazakstan and Mongolia.

After this war is said and done, Hollywood is going to have fun making a movie about this Putin guy.

That just sounds absurd. You would need a herd of 1,000 deer to get enough blood to bathe in. How could this have ever developed as a therapy if the only person rich enough to afford it is the president? This would literally cost tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars in labor alone just to get enough people cutting off deer antlers and capturing the blood to get the tens of gallons necessary to actually bathe in (less if it was just poured over someone).

Maybe, the mix is watered down.  It kinda sorta fits.  I saw a video of Putin speaking English.  It was just like an old Vampire movie.  Come to think of it he looks like the actor in the old black and white "Nosferatu" film.

Looks like he is getting Cancer surgery.

https://nypost.com/2022/05/02/vladimir-putin-to-undergo-cancer-surgery-transfer-power/

They're referencing the same Telegram account as the first one. Until we get a better source - fake news.

[Travis]

How many generals does Russia have? It would be helpful for scale, because Ukraine keeps killing them. If Russia has 100 generals, that's one context. It's quite another if there's 1000. And I have no idea.

From what I've found, it seems like Russia has about 1,100 generals/admirals. For comparison, the US has 600-something generals/admirals. Russia also has about 2/3 the number of soldiers as the US, so Russia losing a general is not the same as the US losing a general. There was a plane crash in the early 80s that wiped out 28 Russian generals/admirals.

On paper Russia has a lot of generals. Not quite sure what they all do, but its doubtful very many are occupying critical roles.

https://twitter.com/AnonOpsSE/status/1521484749461725188

[LennStar]

How many generals does Russia have? It would be helpful for scale, because Ukraine keeps killing them. If Russia has 100 generals, that's one context. It's quite another if there's 1000. And I have no idea.

From what I've found, it seems like Russia has about 1,100 generals/admirals. For comparison, the US has 600-something generals/admirals. Russia also has about 2/3 the number of soldiers as the US, so Russia losing a general is not the same as the US losing a general. There was a plane crash in the early 80s that wiped out 28 Russian generals/admirals.

On paper Russia has a lot of generals. Not quite sure what they all do, but its doubtful very many are occupying critical roles.

https://twitter.com/AnonOpsSE/status/1521484749461725188

They have the very critical role of ensuring that Putin stays in power. (hypnotic look: ~~~Read the book in my signature~~~)

[lemanfan]

Oh fun... now Russia has started an internal ad campaign stating that Swedish people are all nazis.  They apparently did something similar to Ukraine before starting this years invasion.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10778809/Russia-labels-SWEDEN-Nazis-join-NATO-Kremlin-claimed-Hitler-Jewish-blood.html

Sometimes, getting yelled at by the "right" person is the sign of that you're doing something right.  :)

[Travis]

How many generals does Russia have? It would be helpful for scale, because Ukraine keeps killing them. If Russia has 100 generals, that's one context. It's quite another if there's 1000. And I have no idea.

From what I've found, it seems like Russia has about 1,100 generals/admirals. For comparison, the US has 600-something generals/admirals. Russia also has about 2/3 the number of soldiers as the US, so Russia losing a general is not the same as the US losing a general. There was a plane crash in the early 80s that wiped out 28 Russian generals/admirals.

On paper Russia has a lot of generals. Not quite sure what they all do, but its doubtful very many are occupying critical roles.

https://twitter.com/AnonOpsSE/status/1521484749461725188

They have the very critical role of ensuring that Putin stays in power. (hypnotic look: ~~~Read the book in my signature~~~)

The ones in command of divisions, districts, and security agencies? Sure. The old fart in the photo I linked, not so much.  Soviet Union was known for having very old generals on the payroll just to keep their pay and privileges intact. I wouldn't be surprised if that was still the case to some degree.

[Sibley]

Oh fun... now Russia has started an internal ad campaign stating that Swedish people are all nazis.  They apparently did something similar to Ukraine before starting this years invasion.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10778809/Russia-labels-SWEDEN-Nazis-join-NATO-Kremlin-claimed-Hitler-Jewish-blood.html

Sometimes, getting yelled at by the "right" person is the sign of that you're doing something right.  :)

While I haven't gone down the internet rabbit hole of how good is Sweden's military, I have on the Finnish military. And unless my brain is completely shortcircuted right now (possible), they're neighbors and they get along great. So if Russia decides to be stupid enough to attack Sweden, then they'll be facing both Sweden and Finland. And that's leaving anything to do with NATO out of it.

For the sake of the Russian people, I very much hope Putin doesn't go down that path. Because Russia would be flattened.

[pecunia]

Oh fun... now Russia has started an internal ad campaign stating that Swedish people are all nazis.  They apparently did something similar to Ukraine before starting this years invasion.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10778809/Russia-labels-SWEDEN-Nazis-join-NATO-Kremlin-claimed-Hitler-Jewish-blood.html

Sometimes, getting yelled at by the "right" person is the sign of that you're doing something right.  :)

From the article: "The word 'we' is in the colour of the Russian flag and 'they' in the colours of the Swedish flag. Selective quotes appear next to each picture purporting to paint the figure as a Nazi."

So, because the Swedish flag has the same colors as the Ukrainian flag, they must be Nazis, wow!

I think they are just showing they are upset because they may join NATO.

I do hope those new weapons will back the Russians up.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

Oh fun... now Russia has started an internal ad campaign stating that Swedish people are all nazis.  They apparently did something similar to Ukraine before starting this years invasion.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10778809/Russia-labels-SWEDEN-Nazis-join-NATO-Kremlin-claimed-Hitler-Jewish-blood.html

Sometimes, getting yelled at by the "right" person is the sign of that you're doing something right.  :)

While I haven't gone down the internet rabbit hole of how good is Sweden's military, I have on the Finnish military. And unless my brain is completely shortcircuted right now (possible), they're neighbors and they get along great. So if Russia decides to be stupid enough to attack Sweden, then they'll be facing both Sweden and Finland. And that's leaving anything to do with NATO out of it.

According to a Swedish friend of mine, Sweden and Finland have an understanding that either both will join NATO, or neither will join.  I believe it's to avoid being singled out for attack by Russia (although I wonder if Russia would really open up a war on two fronts?).

Currently I feel most trolled by German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier.  He previously commented that Ukraine did not want him visiting - of course he didn't originally mention that more of Germany's money goes to Russia than Ukraine.  Kind of significant!  This "poor me" approach came out when discussing oil sanctions as well, "a burden for Germany".  I wonder how that burden compares to civilians being slaughted by the thousands?  Or how Greece endured austarity, where Germany seems to want to avoid austarity over it's past mistakes.

I think as long as the EU makes progress together, like with oil sanctions, the divide between Germany and other countries is more tolerable.  I don't know what happens when Germany runs out of things it can agree to, and refuses to abandon Russian LNG before 2023.  If the resentments run deep enough, France's LePen may get a shot at the Presidency in 5 years - and she wants to exit the EU. (Frexit?)

Meanwhile the U.S. is allocating tens of billions in military aid, which should make a huge difference.  Especially if Zelinsky says "we'd like those MiGs now!" with the money.

[zolotiyeruki]

Oh fun... now Russia has started an internal ad campaign stating that Swedish people are all nazis.  They apparently did something similar to Ukraine before starting this years invasion.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10778809/Russia-labels-SWEDEN-Nazis-join-NATO-Kremlin-claimed-Hitler-Jewish-blood.html

Sometimes, getting yelled at by the "right" person is the sign of that you're doing something right.  :)

While I haven't gone down the internet rabbit hole of how good is Sweden's military, I have on the Finnish military. And unless my brain is completely shortcircuted right now (possible), they're neighbors and they get along great. So if Russia decides to be stupid enough to attack Sweden, then they'll be facing both Sweden and Finland. And that's leaving anything to do with NATO out of it.

According to a Swedish friend of mine, Sweden and Finland have an understanding that either both will join NATO, or neither will join.  I believe it's to avoid being singled out for attack by Russia (although I wonder if Russia would really open up a war on two fronts?).

Russia couldn't manage a war on two fronts just in Ukraine.  Opening up a second front against an even better-prepared foe would be...ill-advised.  Of course, given the past couple of months, "ill-advised" doesn't mean it won't happen.

[lemanfan]

Oh fun... now Russia has started an internal ad campaign stating that Swedish people are all nazis.  They apparently did something similar to Ukraine before starting this years invasion.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10778809/Russia-labels-SWEDEN-Nazis-join-NATO-Kremlin-claimed-Hitler-Jewish-blood.html

Sometimes, getting yelled at by the "right" person is the sign of that you're doing something right.  :)

While I haven't gone down the internet rabbit hole of how good is Sweden's military, I have on the Finnish military. And unless my brain is completely shortcircuted right now (possible), they're neighbors and they get along great. So if Russia decides to be stupid enough to attack Sweden, then they'll be facing both Sweden and Finland. And that's leaving anything to do with NATO out of it.

For the sake of the Russian people, I very much hope Putin doesn't go down that path. Because Russia would be flattened.

Even two hundred years ago (and then some, before 1809), when Finland was still part of Sweden, it was said that the brave Swedish king would fight the Russians to the last Finn.  ;)

But yes, NATO talks for Sweden and Finland are very much real now.  It is not uncontroversial in Sweden at least.