U.K. Mustachians - What is your take on the Brexit?

[cerat0n1a]

American here, so just commenting out of curiosity and to follow.

We just visited the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.  I'm particularly interested in what the impact of a leave decision would have in two areas:
(1) The re-establishment of checkpoints at the border of NI and the Republic (Mary McAleese has weighed in on this already) -- not only the hassle factor but the psychological factor after hard-earned peace.

The thinking on this from the Parliament NI committee is that it will be far easier to do checks at the NI <-> rest of UK points as there are far fewer of them (ferry ports & airports) than to try to close the border with Ireland.

(2) The negative impact on the significant amount of current trade between the Republic and the U.K.  It's my understanding that if the U.K. pulls out that as a Eurozone member the Republic will still need to yield to the Eurozone to negotiate trade, so can't negotiate "one off" deals directly with its neighbors to the north and east to expediently fill the trade hole.

It will be an economic disaster for Ireland if the UK leaves - and the Irish government has said as much. Both N.Ireland & Scotland have a large majority for 'remain', could be an interesting situation if the vote is close. We could end up in the situation where England voted leave by a narrow majority, but the overall UK vote was to remain - can imagine certain politicians trying to make something of it.

It's also a reason why the threats from the EU about trade negotiations with the UK are not very credible - Ireland simply cannot afford it.

Let's hope it doesn't come to this.

[nobodyspecial]

NI and Scotland really complicate matters.

The Scottish parliament would demand another referendum on leaving the UK if the UK left the Eu.
But with oil at $50 and Aberdeen a ghost town there is probably a general sense of relief about the last result.
Scotland would also have to negotiate some sort of special deal with an England outside Eu (like Ireland currently has with the UK) there is no way that a Scotland with a trade/travel embargo to England is viable.

Northern Ireland has all the same complexities plus a civil war.

[Trudie]

Looks like it's neck and neck.  Wow!

[MoonShadow]

Why is this taking so long? Didn't the polls close 5 hours ago?

[seattlecyclone]

Why is this taking so long? Didn't the polls close 5 hours ago?

Maybe the more populated areas don't hire enough different people to count all the ballots within a couple of hours, and they instead decide that waiting until morning to have a result is fine. These folks also don't believe in year-long political campaigns like we have in our presidential election. Maybe we could learn from them!

[bryan995]

BREXIT is leading by a nice margin! And the markets are absolutely tanking.
Time to leave the sinking ship that is the EU.

[MrStash2000]

Congrats to the U.K. !!!!!!!!!!

[MoonShadow]

BREXIT is leading by a nice margin! And the markets are absolutely tanking.
Time to leave the sinking ship that is the EU.

Good.  Finally time for a fire sale.

[Yaeger]

Woohoo! Congrats to the U.K. Mustachians on the historic vote!

[SoccerLounge]

That's it - officially confirmed now. Britain has voted to leave the European Union. It's hard to understate how big a deal this is; for anyone only just finding out about this, it's almost as if a state or even group of states voted to secede from the US - and the Federal government was required to honor that vote and allow them to leave.

I think we can see the UK leaning (even) closer to the US in the future as a result of this. Previously, London had the job of almost being the intermediary between the US and 'real' Europe. Now it doesn't have to.

Interesting times!

[screwit]

I'm a non European living in Germany and I find this an incredibly sad day.

[Friar]

The UK government isn't required to do anything with the result. They could choose to ignore it if they so wish.

Personally, I hope they use it to leverage a "better deal" with the EU and then hold a further vote based on the promised changes.

This isn't a day to be celebrated.

[MoonShadow]

The UK government isn't required to do anything with the result. They could choose to ignore it if they so wish.

Personally, I hope they use it to leverage a "better deal" with the EU and then hold a further vote based on the promised changes.

This isn't a day to be celebrated.

By definition, more than half of Britons would disagree.

[2Cent]

The UK government isn't required to do anything with the result. They could choose to ignore it if they so wish.

Personally, I hope they use it to leverage a "better deal" with the EU and then hold a further vote based on the promised changes.

This isn't a day to be celebrated.

By definition, more than half of Britons would disagree.

Only if all of them voted.

Now it would serve them right if Scotland left the UK.

[Polaria]

From http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_referendum/results.

Clearly Scotland will not stay idle about this.

[shelivesthedream]

Well that's shit. Not only have we voted to leave the EU (boo!) but we've done it by some piddly margin that everyone can now spend forever wrangling over - so both sides will feel equally hard done by. The Remainers because it's such a tiny margin that it's hardly a mandate, and the Leavers because they do technically have a majority so anything other than instant departure will be seen as weaselly. So please don't congratulate us.

[Torran]

I'm Scottish (my Mum is English, my Dad is Scottish, I actually voted Yes in the independence referendum but don't generally talk about it because nuanced arguments don't tend to be welcomed or heard by anyone who disagrees, these days, sigh).

I am absolutely devastated this morning.

I honestly don't think the leave voters fully understand what they just turned their back on. We are not going to 'get control' back of our country. What does that even mean?

Nigel Farage has already come out and said that it was an 'honest mistake' when he said more money would go to the NHS if we left the EU. Big surprise.

[cerat0n1a]

Woohoo! Congrats to the U.K. Mustachians on the historic vote!

Funeral atmosphere at work today - our CFO has just sent out an email telling people not to panic.

Selfishly, my net worth in US$ has dropped by a six figure amount overnight, hard to think of that as something to be congratulated on, although things do appear to be stabilising somewhat.

[Torran]

Congrats to the U.K. !!!!!!!!!!

It's so great to assume things and then add loads of exclamation marks.

Thanks for the congrats, but also, no thanks. 

[Polaria]

Thanks for the congrats, but also, no thanks.

I think it is way too early for congratulations or commiserations. Time will tell.

[theadvicist]

Woohoo! Congrats to the U.K. Mustachians on the historic vote!

Funeral atmosphere at work today - our CFO has just sent out an email telling people not to panic.

Selfishly, my net worth in US$ has dropped by a six figure amount overnight, hard to think of that as something to be congratulated on, although things do appear to be stabilising somewhat.

Ironically I am trying to sell some shares (not to add to the panic - I am trying to sell some which have done really well to free up captial to buy some on sale!) and I cannot get a price from the stockmarket.

It's like being stuck on Ticketmaster trying to buy really hot tickets, waiting, waiting, oh no sorry, can't get a price, refresh and again. Kind of scary.

[cerat0n1a]

Ironically I am trying to sell some shares (not to add to the panic - I am trying to sell some which have done really well to free up captial to buy some on sale!) and I cannot get a price from the stockmarket.

It's like being stuck on Ticketmaster trying to buy really hot tickets, waiting, waiting, oh no sorry, can't get a price, refresh and again. Kind of scary.

Yes, quite a few of the online brokers are down, or working very slowly, today. The reality is that the FTSE has only reversed its gains of the last few days and the pound is now back to where it was (briefly) in February.

[marty998]

Pound vs USD dropped 8% today... the sort of rubbish you only see in basket case emerging markets.

FTSE futures predicting 6% fall in the UK market today.... seriously?

Ok they voted to leave, but no laws have changed yet... the existing rules still apply till all the shit is sorted out...

It's going to take months if not years to work through... no need to panic and have knee jerk reactions...

[theadvicist]

Ironically I am trying to sell some shares (not to add to the panic - I am trying to sell some which have done really well to free up captial to buy some on sale!) and I cannot get a price from the stockmarket.

It's like being stuck on Ticketmaster trying to buy really hot tickets, waiting, waiting, oh no sorry, can't get a price, refresh and again. Kind of scary.

Yes, quite a few of the online brokers are down, or working very slowly, today. The reality is that the FTSE has only reversed its gains of the last few days and the pound is now back to where it was (briefly) in February.

Yeah, I'm disappointed things didn't fall more. Had my eye on a few stocks but none of them have really taken a meaningful hit!

[2Cent]

I wonder what the UKIP will do now. They basically got what they wanted, so will they come up with a new topic, or just be dissolved into other parties?

[big_owl]

Way to go UK! 

Good to see Nigel finally get a win, lol. 

[theadvicist]

I wonder what the UKIP will do now. They basically got what they wanted, so will they come up with a new topic, or just be dissolved into other parties?

Well, they've only got one MP, who was a Tory defector, so it's not a huge conundrum for them. The local supporters who were knocking on doors and brewing up at meetings have got what they wanted. I imagine they'll go back to curtain twitching and complaining about parking problems on their street and wondering who that is who just dropped Marjorie off, 'cos they've never seen that Ford Focus down here before. 

Stereotyping, who me?

[LennStar]

On side its good that the UK is out, they were never a real part of (Kontinental)Europe and the EU has now one very quarrelsome member who always got specials less.
On the other hand. Its a bad day. A real bad day for the political vision.


By the way, all those Nort Ireland Tax Haven + Privacy Law Evaders company subsidiaries from the US, what is with them? Do they need to move to a real EU state now (in the next 2 years, as this is the maximum)?

[cerat0n1a]

By the way, all those Nort Ireland Tax Haven + Privacy Law Evaders company subsidiaries from the US, what is with them? Do they need to move to a real EU state now (in the next 2 years, as this is the maximum)?

That's the Republic of Ireland, which is not part of the UK. Tax avoidance will still be done via Ireland & Luxemburg, nothing changes there.

[nobodyspecial]

By the way, all those Nort Ireland Tax Haven + Privacy Law Evaders company subsidiaries from the US, what is with them? Do they need to move to a real EU state now (in the next 2 years, as this is the maximum)?

That's the Republic of Ireland, which is not part of the UK. Tax avoidance will still be done via Ireland & Luxemburg, nothing changes there.

Could go either way for Ireland.
The UK could demand that all those companies now pay UK tax (snort)
Or the Eu could demand that companies that operate in the Eu are actually in the Eu and so a lot more have to move to Ireland.

Northern Ireland is going to get fun.
The half of the population that don't want to be part of the UK mostly also have Irish (ie Eu) 2nd passports and voted to remain.
The half that voted to leave are the half that support the UK and are now pretty much screwed.

Grew up there and can just say "a plague on both their houses"

[onlykelsey]

Nigel Farage has already come out and said that it was an 'honest mistake' when he said more money would go to the NHS if we left the EU. Big surprise.

Nothing he says is an honest mistake.  I'm an American, but dislike Farage and Boris Johnson so much it makes me dislike that side of the argument.  Johnson reminds me of that (now late) Toronto mayor or Trump. Dislike.

[shelivesthedream]

Nigel Farage has already come out and said that it was an 'honest mistake' when he said more money would go to the NHS if we left the EU. Big surprise.

Nothing he says is an honest mistake.  I'm an American, but dislike Farage and Boris Johnson so much it makes me dislike that side of the argument.  Johnson reminds me of that (now late) Toronto mayor or Trump. Dislike.

Eh, I'm not the world's biggest fan of Boris Johnson but I wouldn't put him in the same class of awfulness as Farage. I'm sure that the "bumbling man of the people" thing is totally an act, but all politicians have an act of some kind going on. I just doubt that the "real" Boris is as bad as the real Farage. I am slightly concerned over the Leave vote as I do wonder if it is in fact a reflection of the increasing xenophobia, insularity and hysteria surrounding migrants (i.e. anyone foreign) in the UK. Hard to say, as obviously there are other reasons why one might vote to leave the EU, but so much of the public debate has basically been about keeping out anyone who isn't "British". I feel particularly sorry for people who look different (i.e. black, Asian, from somewhere else in Europe) but who were born in Britain and have lived here all their lives, and secondly for those who did migrate here from somewhere but have been here for decades and totally fit into Britain today. If things turn nationalistic here, they are really going to get the short straw and it'll hurt.

Obviously it's a bit histrionic and theoretical, but I do wonder what we would do if UKIP or the BNP were ever actually elected. Would we leave the country? I'm not sure. But could we live in a country run by bigots who were voted in by a bigoted majority? I'm not sure. I'm not particularly patriotic about modern Britain, but I do think we have a lot to be proud of in our history... but then plenty to be ashamed of as well. I imagine we would stay and I've just have to get radically political. I'd be sad to leave the physical land, and obviously those closest to me, but I don't know if I could stand by and watch.

[cerat0n1a]

Northern Ireland is going to get fun.
The half of the population that don't want to be part of the UK mostly also have Irish (ie Eu) 2nd passports and voted to remain.
The half that voted to leave are the half that support the UK and are now pretty much screwed.

That doesn't really accord with reality. N.Ireland voted 56/44 to remain. It's not half and half. The nationalist vote (Sinn Fein & SDLP) was just under 40% of the total last year.  The Ulster Unionist party was campaigning for Remain.

I agree that sorting out N.Ireland is going to get fun though. If Scotland does leave the UK, do the Unionists go for union with England/Wales, with Scotland, or Independence (in or out of the EU?) Or do they recognise that the Republic is not the priest-ridden, backward looking, gaelic speaking peasant nation that de Valera wanted, but a modern european democracy and do the obvious thing?

[GuitarStv]

Nigel Farage has already come out and said that it was an 'honest mistake' when he said more money would go to the NHS if we left the EU. Big surprise.

Nothing he says is an honest mistake.  I'm an American, but dislike Farage and Boris Johnson so much it makes me dislike that side of the argument.  Johnson reminds me of that (now late) Toronto mayor or Trump. Dislike.

I appreciate you adhering to Canadian law by not invoking the name of the cursed shame of Toronto.

[theadvicist]

Nigel Farage has already come out and said that it was an 'honest mistake' when he said more money would go to the NHS if we left the EU. Big surprise.

Nothing he says is an honest mistake.  I'm an American, but dislike Farage and Boris Johnson so much it makes me dislike that side of the argument.  Johnson reminds me of that (now late) Toronto mayor or Trump. Dislike.

Eh, I'm not the world's biggest fan of Boris Johnson but I wouldn't put him in the same class of awfulness as Farage. I'm sure that the "bumbling man of the people" thing is totally an act, but all politicians have an act of some kind going on. I just doubt that the "real" Boris is as bad as the real Farage. I am slightly concerned over the Leave vote as I do wonder if it is in fact a reflection of the increasing xenophobia, insularity and hysteria surrounding migrants (i.e. anyone foreign) in the UK. Hard to say, as obviously there are other reasons why one might vote to leave the EU, but so much of the public debate has basically been about keeping out anyone who isn't "British". I feel particularly sorry for people who look different (i.e. black, Asian, from somewhere else in Europe) but who were born in Britain and have lived here all their lives, and secondly for those who did migrate here from somewhere but have been here for decades and totally fit into Britain today. If things turn nationalistic here, they are really going to get the short straw and it'll hurt.

Obviously it's a bit histrionic and theoretical, but I do wonder what we would do if UKIP or the BNP were ever actually elected. Would we leave the country? I'm not sure. But could we live in a country run by bigots who were voted in by a bigoted majority? I'm not sure. I'm not particularly patriotic about modern Britain, but I do think we have a lot to be proud of in our history... but then plenty to be ashamed of as well. I imagine we would stay and I've just have to get radically political. I'd be sad to leave the physical land, and obviously those closest to me, but I don't know if I could stand by and watch.

Yeah Boris can be a bit of bumbling fool, but Jesus Christ, the only thing he's got in common with Trump is ridiculous hair.

Seriously, I'd take 1000 Nigel Farages over 1 Trump. And I can't stand either of the idiots.

[onlykelsey]

Nigel Farage has already come out and said that it was an 'honest mistake' when he said more money would go to the NHS if we left the EU. Big surprise.

Nothing he says is an honest mistake.  I'm an American, but dislike Farage and Boris Johnson so much it makes me dislike that side of the argument.  Johnson reminds me of that (now late) Toronto mayor or Trump. Dislike.

I appreciate you adhering to Canadian law by not invoking the name of the cursed shame of Toronto.

I think the UK referendum means the Brits get to make fun of us for Trump less, which is exciting.

On a more serious note, this cursed shame of Toronto/Trump/Farage populism is real and scary. 

[GuitarStv]

Nigel Farage has already come out and said that it was an 'honest mistake' when he said more money would go to the NHS if we left the EU. Big surprise.

Nothing he says is an honest mistake.  I'm an American, but dislike Farage and Boris Johnson so much it makes me dislike that side of the argument.  Johnson reminds me of that (now late) Toronto mayor or Trump. Dislike.

I appreciate you adhering to Canadian law by not invoking the name of the cursed shame of Toronto.

I think the UK referendum means the Brits get to make fun of us for Trump less, which is exciting.

On a more serious note, this cursed shame of Toronto/Trump/Farage populism is real and scary.

You think the Trump jokes are bad now?  Wait until you elect him as president . . .

[theadvicist]

I think the UK referendum means the Brits get to make fun of us for Trump less, which is exciting.

On a more serious note, this cursed shame of Toronto/Trump/Farage populism is real and scary.

Afraid not. Farage hasn't been elected to anything. He wasn't even allowed to lead the Leave campaign. He is politically isolated and always has been. He doesn't even have a vote in the house of commons (though he has managed to poach one lonely MP for his 'party').

The US is considering giving Trump the leadership of the largest military force in the world.

The jokes will continue. The two situations (whilst both reprehensible) are not even in the same ballpark.

[RobFIRE]

Not proud to be British today.

As the referendum is not legally binding, so I would think UK actually leaving EU would require parliament to approve new legislation, which parliament and/or House of Lords may not pass, and would presumably first/alongside need Scotland and NI to have referendums on their (partial/further/full) independence, I don't actually know where all this is going to lead to. At a minimum it will be a huge waste of time, money and effort when there are real problems to deal with (take your pick from obesity, migrant crisis, air pollution, climate change, public debt, NHS reform etc. etc.) that will therefore get less focus.

[onlykelsey]

I think the UK referendum means the Brits get to make fun of us for Trump less, which is exciting.

On a more serious note, this cursed shame of Toronto/Trump/Farage populism is real and scary.

Afraid not. Farage hasn't been elected to anything. He wasn't even allowed to lead the Leave campaign. He is politically isolated and always has been. He doesn't even have a vote in the house of commons (though he has managed to poach one lonely MP for his 'party').

The US is considering giving Trump the leadership of the largest military force in the world.

The jokes will continue. The two situations (whilst both reprehensible) are not even in the same ballpark.

I'm not sure comparing the individuals really makes sense (on the serious side, although certainly for the jokes).  More interesting/worrying to me is the number of largely white, largely lower and working class, largely male citizens who feel like they're being left behind, and are blaming international institutions (with some justification), refugees, women, other minorities for their problems.  My gut reaction is that, yeah, when your special advantages are removed and we move closer to equality, that feels like discrimination to the folks who used to be on top, so get over it. but I don't think dismissing it (or trying it to any figurehead) really does anyone any favors.  The concerns (real and imagined) are real to them, and clearly not being addressed by our mainstream systems.

[shelivesthedream]

I think the UK referendum means the Brits get to make fun of us for Trump less, which is exciting.

On a more serious note, this cursed shame of Toronto/Trump/Farage populism is real and scary.

Afraid not. Farage hasn't been elected to anything. He wasn't even allowed to lead the Leave campaign. He is politically isolated and always has been. He doesn't even have a vote in the house of commons (though he has managed to poach one lonely MP for his 'party').

The US is considering giving Trump the leadership of the largest military force in the world.

The jokes will continue. The two situations (whilst both reprehensible) are not even in the same ballpark.

Agreed. Farage is not a serious political figure for 99.9% of Britons, whereas y'all actually might elect Trump. Farage may be good at courting the newspapers but he is nowhere near any actual power.

[deadlymonkey]

With all the panic selling going on, I am buying so hopefully will turn a nice profit when all is said and done.

[onlykelsey]

Not proud to be British today.

As the referendum is not legally binding, so I would think UK actually leaving EU would require parliament to approve new legislation, which parliament and/or House of Lords may not pass, and would presumably first/alongside need Scotland and NI to have referendums on their (partial/further/full) independence, I don't actually know where all this is going to lead to. At a minimum it will be a huge waste of time, money and effort when there are real problems to deal with (take your pick from obesity, migrant crisis, air pollution, climate change, public debt, NHS reform etc. etc.) that will therefore get less focus.

I can't imagine the UK wouldn't end up in the EFTA and (still) the EEA, so maybe it's all been blown a bit out of proportion.  I'm on the other side of the Atlantic but it seems like it was more a rejection of internationalism and the status quo then necessarily the EU, since the UK already had border control and its own currency unpegged via EMR.  I suppose some of the administrative/bureaucratic burdens could be lessened, and the UK could try to take a Swiss model of bipartite trade agreements instead of the EFTA, but it seems like a LOT of work/drama/lost money for maybe not much change in the status quo for the UK.

[theadvicist]

With all the panic selling going on, I am buying so hopefully will turn a nice profit when all is said and done.

Nothing I want seems to be cheap! Been trying to buy Unilever for a while - they are still more expensive than they were in May. Experian too.

[deadlymonkey]

With all the panic selling going on, I am buying so hopefully will turn a nice profit when all is said and done.

Nothing I want seems to be cheap! Been trying to buy Unilever for a while - they are still more expensive than they were in May. Experian too.

I don't buy individual stocks, only index.  Since everything is generally down a few percent, indexes are cheaper.

[cerat0n1a]

With all the panic selling going on, I am buying so hopefully will turn a nice profit when all is said and done.

Nothing I want seems to be cheap! Been trying to buy Unilever for a while - they are still more expensive than they were in May. Experian too.

Makes sense. Unilever earns nearly all of its money outside the UK, after all. They're barely affected by Brexit. I think my portfolio is actually now UP compared to yesterday in £ terms, obviously still down a lot in $ terms.

The interesting thing is not what happens to the stock market, it's what S&P/Moody's do. If the rating on UK government debt is cut & government interest rate goes up as a result, we get into emergency budget territory quite quickly. Petrol price rise followed by tax rises and further government spending cuts might lead to some buyers remorse from the voters rather soon.

[SoccerLounge]

The UK government isn't required to do anything with the result. They could choose to ignore it if they so wish.

Whether you agree with the voters' decision to leave the EU or not, that would be a catastrophically bad idea. (I don't really have a dog in this fight, but if you're gonna set up a referendum to make a major political decision, democracy demands that you respect the result. Even if it's a slim one.)

One thing that did puzzle me was all this #notinmyname stuff. First off, I felt it was a bit inappropriate given the history of that sentiment. Secondly, I don't think those folks understand how a majority democracy works. By definition, the results of votes are not the choice of the people who opposed them!

One thing's for sure: this is a good time to buy British stocks ;)

[screwit]

One thing that did puzzle me was all this #notinmyname stuff. First off, I felt it was a bit inappropriate given the history of that sentiment. Secondly, I don't think those folks understand how a majority democracy works. By definition, the results of votes are not the choice of the people who opposed them!

As I understood it, the hashtag is mainly being used by those that are too young to take part (16/17 yr olds).

[Cellista]

The UK government isn't required to do anything with the result. They could choose to ignore it if they so wish.

Whether you agree with the voters' decision to leave the EU or not, that would be a catastrophically bad idea. (I don't really have a dog in this fight, but if you're gonna set up a referendum to make a major political decision, democracy demands that you respect the result. Even if it's a slim one.)

One thing that did puzzle me was all this #notinmyname stuff. First off, I felt it was a bit inappropriate given the history of that sentiment. Secondly, I don't think those folks understand how a majority democracy works. By definition, the results of votes are not the choice of the people who opposed them!

One thing's for sure: this is a good time to buy British stocks ;)

Nearly one-half of the UK does not want to leave. A vote this important should not be decided by simple majority.  There should be at least 2/3 of voters required. 

So sad, and avoidable, on so many levels.

[onlykelsey]

The UK government isn't required to do anything with the result. They could choose to ignore it if they so wish.

Whether you agree with the voters' decision to leave the EU or not, that would be a catastrophically bad idea. (I don't really have a dog in this fight, but if you're gonna set up a referendum to make a major political decision, democracy demands that you respect the result. Even if it's a slim one.)

One thing that did puzzle me was all this #notinmyname stuff. First off, I felt it was a bit inappropriate given the history of that sentiment. Secondly, I don't think those folks understand how a majority democracy works. By definition, the results of votes are not the choice of the people who opposed them!

One thing's for sure: this is a good time to buy British stocks ;)

Nearly one-half of the UK does not want to leave. A vote this important should not be decided by simple majority.  There should be at least 2/3 of voters required. 

So sad, and avoidable, on so many levels.

I would have voted to remain, but it's not like the voters got to weigh in on the Treaty of Rome or the formation of the EC or the Maastricht treaty.