Author Topic: Twitter  (Read 12479 times)

Fru-Gal

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #250 on: November 18, 2022, 07:21:06 PM »
It’s a poll from Musk asking whether or not to reinstate Trump.

bryan995

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ender

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #252 on: November 19, 2022, 06:53:53 AM »
The way I see it, Elon paid $44B for Twitter’s established user base and market share. I don’t understand how the company can continue to move forward with its existing legacy infrastructure, given how many of the employees have departed. The knowledge base required to operate and develop within the current infrastructure has been obliterated.

That being said, I think this may be what Elon wants. The old Twitter was a bloated and lazy company, both in terms of their infrastructure and employee base. To bring Twitter into the next decade, the entire thing needs to be burned down and rebuilt from scratch. Elon would have had an easier job doing this if he just started his own social media company, but then he wouldn’t have Twitter’s user base and market share. Twitter is one of those companies that just got there first and established itself, and by doing so is almost impossible to replace no matter how bloated, lazy, and lacking in vision it may have become.

Elon is going to have to create a very compelling vision for his new Twitter if he wants to be able to hire people willing to work “hardcore” hours though. Tesla and SpaceX both have top-notch technology and extremely compelling visions, which is why their employees are willing to work that hard. Twitter has never had that, which is why it has always been famous in the Valley for its lazy and unmotivated employees.

So for Elon to succeed here, he needs to do the following:
1. Communicate a clear and compelling vision for the new Twitter so that he can attract the kind of “hardcore” engineers he wants to hire.
2. Keep the existing infrastructure running well enough to avoid losing the established user base and market share.
3. Build out a whole new infrastructure for the new Twitter which will eventually replace the old one.

It will be extremely difficult to achieve this but Elon Musk does seem motivated enough to pull it off. I’m worried about #1 though, as nothing he has communicated about his vision for the new Twitter has been clear or compelling.

Furthermore, all of this fits perfectly into Elon’s established MO. He identifies a lucrative industry that has become weak and bloated, and finds a better way to do it. Then he moves into the industry, builds a younger, leaner, and more capable company, disrupts the old players, and takes over the industry. The process has already been done twice with SpaceX and Tesla. Twitter is an interesting case because Elon is disrupting it internally rather than externally, and Twitter’s business is lucrative in political power rather than profits. But it’s still essentially the same process being put into motion at Twitter as what Elon already did in the space and automotive industries.

This is a good example of people who think they understand how to build an application the scale of Twitter but have never done so.

It's not as simple as many people seem to think (Elon and yourself included) and I suspect the world is going to find out just how complicated it actually is to build and operate an application of Twitter's scale.

FINate

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #253 on: November 19, 2022, 09:02:16 AM »
The way I see it, Elon paid $44B for Twitter’s established user base and market share. I don’t understand how the company can continue to move forward with its existing legacy infrastructure, given how many of the employees have departed. The knowledge base required to operate and develop within the current infrastructure has been obliterated.

That being said, I think this may be what Elon wants. The old Twitter was a bloated and lazy company, both in terms of their infrastructure and employee base. To bring Twitter into the next decade, the entire thing needs to be burned down and rebuilt from scratch. Elon would have had an easier job doing this if he just started his own social media company, but then he wouldn’t have Twitter’s user base and market share. Twitter is one of those companies that just got there first and established itself, and by doing so is almost impossible to replace no matter how bloated, lazy, and lacking in vision it may have become.

Elon is going to have to create a very compelling vision for his new Twitter if he wants to be able to hire people willing to work “hardcore” hours though. Tesla and SpaceX both have top-notch technology and extremely compelling visions, which is why their employees are willing to work that hard. Twitter has never had that, which is why it has always been famous in the Valley for its lazy and unmotivated employees.

So for Elon to succeed here, he needs to do the following:
1. Communicate a clear and compelling vision for the new Twitter so that he can attract the kind of “hardcore” engineers he wants to hire.
2. Keep the existing infrastructure running well enough to avoid losing the established user base and market share.
3. Build out a whole new infrastructure for the new Twitter which will eventually replace the old one.

It will be extremely difficult to achieve this but Elon Musk does seem motivated enough to pull it off. I’m worried about #1 though, as nothing he has communicated about his vision for the new Twitter has been clear or compelling.

Furthermore, all of this fits perfectly into Elon’s established MO. He identifies a lucrative industry that has become weak and bloated, and finds a better way to do it. Then he moves into the industry, builds a younger, leaner, and more capable company, disrupts the old players, and takes over the industry. The process has already been done twice with SpaceX and Tesla. Twitter is an interesting case because Elon is disrupting it internally rather than externally, and Twitter’s business is lucrative in political power rather than profits. But it’s still essentially the same process being put into motion at Twitter as what Elon already did in the space and automotive industries.

This is a good example of people who think they understand how to build an application the scale of Twitter but have never done so.

It's not as simple as many people seem to think (Elon and yourself included) and I suspect the world is going to find out just how complicated it actually is to build and operate an application of Twitter's scale.

Yes, completely agree. And it's not just about writing/building software. There's an art to deploying a system to a live production environment, and every application takes on a life of its own with a unique set of idiosyncrasies. It takes decades of behind the scenes collective experience to keep large applications running. Things like how to build and verify software before pushing to prod to ensure stability and guard against malicious intent (e.g. rouge insiders), how to scale up back end services without overwhelming a weak link in the system, redirecting load as anomalies arise, and so forth. I suspect Twitter is dangerously close to losing a critical mass of hard-earned institutional knowledge.

Herbert Derp

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #254 on: November 19, 2022, 01:36:31 PM »
This is a good example of people who think they understand how to build an application the scale of Twitter but have never done so.

It's not as simple as many people seem to think (Elon and yourself included) and I suspect the world is going to find out just how complicated it actually is to build and operate an application of Twitter's scale.

Oh, I don’t think it’s going to be easy for them. I agree that the company has lost so much knowledge that it is going to be extremely difficult to keep the existing system running and perhaps impossible to develop new software on the existing system. That’s why I think their only option at this point is to keep the old thing running *somehow* and start anew.

ender

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #255 on: November 20, 2022, 07:14:43 AM »
This is a good example of people who think they understand how to build an application the scale of Twitter but have never done so.

It's not as simple as many people seem to think (Elon and yourself included) and I suspect the world is going to find out just how complicated it actually is to build and operate an application of Twitter's scale.

Oh, I don’t think it’s going to be easy for them. I agree that the company has lost so much knowledge that it is going to be extremely difficult to keep the existing system running and perhaps impossible to develop new software on the existing system. That’s why I think their only option at this point is to keep the old thing running *somehow* and start anew.

But that's my point. You make it sound like this is a trivial thing to do.

Spinning up an application the scale of Twitter isn't something you casually decide to do and pull off in a short period of time with a fraction the original folks.

Malcat

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #256 on: November 20, 2022, 07:43:51 AM »
This is a good example of people who think they understand how to build an application the scale of Twitter but have never done so.

It's not as simple as many people seem to think (Elon and yourself included) and I suspect the world is going to find out just how complicated it actually is to build and operate an application of Twitter's scale.

Oh, I don’t think it’s going to be easy for them. I agree that the company has lost so much knowledge that it is going to be extremely difficult to keep the existing system running and perhaps impossible to develop new software on the existing system. That’s why I think their only option at this point is to keep the old thing running *somehow* and start anew.

But that's my point. You make it sound like this is a trivial thing to do.

Spinning up an application the scale of Twitter isn't something you casually decide to do and pull off in a short period of time with a fraction the original folks.

Exactly.

I mean...you can...but it's likely to be a garbage product and social media users are notoriously demanding and fickle.

The value of a social media company isn't in its IP, none of them have produced a software product that's particularly impressive, but they do produce enormous systems that work well, and that takes people...a lot of people.

The value of the company is in the continued participation of the users, and the users will bail if the not particularly original software doesn't work properly and if a reasonable alternative presents itself.

So yeah, it *can* be done, but can it be done well enough to retain the actual value of the company??? Not likely considering the other value of the company was the workforce and they're already gone.

I'm not quite as curious about what's going to happen with Twitter as what's going to happen with Musk himself. He does have the resources to kill and resurrect Twitter if he wants to, that is very possible, especially if he takes time to do it. But that will essentially be the equivalent of him just building his own social media platform and taking down Twitter to eliminate the competition.

Is that the plan? Was that always the plan? I have no idea, and am not overly concerned about it, but curious to see what happens.

What is more interesting is to see how Musk himself rebrands after this. He was inching steadily away from his "genius world saviour" image, but this really cements his status as "weird impulsive billionaire who is completely out of touch."

What will be the next incarnation of Musk? How will he brand himself moving forward after this? What will be his angle and his impact?

I think history will summarize him as the wunderkind Tesla/Rocket guy who then got weird during the pandemic and that lead to his transition to...???

I'm just curious what the "???" will be.

What does someone like him do when they divorce themselves from public approval?? What happens?

maizefolk

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #257 on: November 20, 2022, 07:47:05 AM »
Spinning up an application the scale of Twitter isn't something you casually decide to do and pull off in a short period of time with a fraction the original folks.

In support of this, look how much trouble Truth Social had in scaling to a tiny fraction of twitter's user base without being constantly overloaded. And that was after building off an existing open source twitter like infrastructure. Truth social is (or at least was initially) running Mastadon with custom branding.

LennStar

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #258 on: November 20, 2022, 08:52:02 AM »
Spinning up an application the scale of Twitter isn't something you casually decide to do and pull off in a short period of time with a fraction the original folks.

In support of this, look how much trouble Truth Social had in scaling to a tiny fraction of twitter's user base without being constantly overloaded. And that was after building off an existing open source twitter like infrastructure. Truth social is (or at least was initially) running Mastadon with custom branding.
Hw many did it reach?
Because Matodon has doubled now - to 2 million I read - and I wonder how it scales up? Especially since it's afaik all run on private money and goodwill.

ender

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #259 on: November 20, 2022, 09:43:25 AM »
Spinning up an application the scale of Twitter isn't something you casually decide to do and pull off in a short period of time with a fraction the original folks.

In support of this, look how much trouble Truth Social had in scaling to a tiny fraction of twitter's user base without being constantly overloaded. And that was after building off an existing open source twitter like infrastructure. Truth social is (or at least was initially) running Mastadon with custom branding.
Hw many did it reach?
Because Matodon has doubled now - to 2 million I read - and I wonder how it scales up? Especially since it's afaik all run on private money and goodwill.

Well, that's not even 1% of Twitter's daily users assuming all 2MN of those folks are actually using it as much as daily Twitter users do.

seattlecyclone

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #260 on: November 20, 2022, 10:16:57 AM »
Spinning up an application the scale of Twitter isn't something you casually decide to do and pull off in a short period of time with a fraction the original folks.

In support of this, look how much trouble Truth Social had in scaling to a tiny fraction of twitter's user base without being constantly overloaded. And that was after building off an existing open source twitter like infrastructure. Truth social is (or at least was initially) running Mastadon with custom branding.
Hw many did it reach?
Because Matodon has doubled now - to 2 million I read - and I wonder how it scales up? Especially since it's afaik all run on private money and goodwill.

Well, that's not even 1% of Twitter's daily users assuming all 2MN of those folks are actually using it as much as daily Twitter users do.

Mastodon's scaling comes from its decentralization. Instead of one company needing to provision servers and network resources for millions of users, you can have thousands of organizations each provisioning resources for thousands of users. Many of these are indeed overloaded at this time, but others are not. Managing this level of scale requires much less expertise than Twitter-scale.

Paul der Krake

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #261 on: November 20, 2022, 11:22:50 AM »
I'll be shocked if Mastodon actually gets any real traction. Open-source clones trying to copy the established player has, as far as I can tell, never worked. I've been following the FOSS ecosystem since I first installed Linux in ~2006 or thereabouts, so I've seen more than few attempts.

It's already really, really hard to get people to move in significant numbers even when you have dedicated professionals doing nothing but that. Volunteers? Good luck. The only exception I can think of is the very limited-purpose social network lichess.org that took on chess.com and is still thriving despite running on almost zero budget, and that is an insane achievement.

The other thing you have to understand about Twitter is that the platform is totally run by its power users, and they absolutely thrive on the toxicity and negativity. They drive the huge engagement numbers. Noah Smith calls them the shouting class, and he's dead on. They are not really interested in having the moderated (on the left) or less moderated (on the right) space they claim to want. The appeal of Twitter is that they get to dish out dunk after dunk, and get a ton of validation from doing it in front of the largest audience possible. They crow with glee when they get someone banned, and post screenshots of other people blocking them like it's a victory for getting under their skin. They put their new TruthSocial or Mastodon link in their bio for a few months, while hedging their bets and continuing to post on the platform they say they despise. They need each other. They'll never quit.

If Twitter dies, it will be replaced by something radically different, not a clone with just a few tweaks.

Moonwaves

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #262 on: November 21, 2022, 04:14:30 AM »
Mastodon.ie definitely took off in a big way but it is still relatively small (althought apparently currently the 46th largest).

Jeez, when I joined only a couple of weeks ago, the mastodon.social instance had maybe 20k active users, if that, and now I see that it has 240k 😳 -- 12x growth. Still, the #MastoDaoine Mastodon.ie instance grew at *many times* that rate -- from around 155 active users then to *18k* now  -- that's *116 times* its size at end of Oct. 🤯🤯🤯

I think it will take a few more months for things to settle down before we can really tell how well it's going to stick around. It definitely feels like the MastoDaoine* are here to stay though.


*MastoDaoine = Irish Mastonauts/Mastodonians. Daoine (pronounced more or less something between "deen-eh" and "deen-ie", kind of) is the Irish for people. And "meas do dhaoine", which is pronounced the same way MastoDaoine is, means respect to people, as in to give people respect, which seemed very fitting as a foil for what twitter can often be like.

bacchi

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #263 on: November 21, 2022, 08:51:03 AM »
Trump, Ye, and Tate are back.

Given that a lot of advertisers have already fled, will they return if they're advertising next to Tate's misogynistic comments about sexual assault victims?

Or maybe Elon makes Twitter a pay-to-post platform?

LennStar

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #264 on: November 21, 2022, 10:17:30 AM »
Trump, Ye, and Tate are back.

Given that a lot of advertisers have already fled, will they return if they're advertising next to Tate's misogynistic comments about sexual assault victims?

Or maybe Elon makes Twitter a pay-to-post platform?
That seems to his intenttion with downrating non-payers so their tweets "don't appear until you activly search for them".

partgypsy

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #265 on: November 21, 2022, 10:51:25 AM »
Trump, Ye, and Tate are back.

Given that a lot of advertisers have already fled, will they return if they're advertising next to Tate's misogynistic comments about sexual assault victims?

Or maybe Elon makes Twitter a pay-to-post platform?
That seems to his intenttion with downrating non-payers so their tweets "don't appear until you activly search for them".
if that is happening,  makes quite the hypocrite. Needs to amend his statement  "unrestricted free speech*" *for those who pay. Everyone else f* off.

Travis

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #266 on: November 21, 2022, 12:06:23 PM »
Trump, Ye, and Tate are back.

Given that a lot of advertisers have already fled, will they return if they're advertising next to Tate's misogynistic comments about sexual assault victims?

Or maybe Elon makes Twitter a pay-to-post platform?
That seems to his intenttion with downrating non-payers so their tweets "don't appear until you activly search for them".
if that is happening,  makes quite the hypocrite. Needs to amend his statement  "unrestricted free speech*" *for those who pay. Everyone else f* off.

When asked if he was going to unban Alex Jones, this was his response:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1594552252865384450

I foresee his conviction on this point being tested very quickly.

Villanelle

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #267 on: November 22, 2022, 05:09:05 PM »

Captain FIRE

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #268 on: November 22, 2022, 06:08:37 PM »
@Villanelle as someone who is friends with/related to many Jews, that is hysterical.

scottish

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #269 on: November 23, 2022, 07:49:04 PM »
Everyone knows Teslas are very hard to extinguish when they catch fire, though.   It's not quite as good as candles burning for 8 nights.

Sibley

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #270 on: November 23, 2022, 08:38:06 PM »
Everyone knows Teslas are very hard to extinguish when they catch fire, though.   It's not quite as good as candles burning for 8 nights.

I did not know, but you aren't joking. They really are hard to put out. Wow.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/06/22/tesla-fire-sacramento/

LennStar

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #271 on: November 24, 2022, 02:14:44 AM »
Everyone knows Teslas are very hard to extinguish when they catch fire, though.   It's not quite as good as candles burning for 8 nights.

I did not know, but you aren't joking. They really are hard to put out. Wow.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/06/22/tesla-fire-sacramento/

That is true vor every battery. Electric cars just have bigger ones. It's one of the things firefighters have been complaining about, especially those with tunnels. I mean you can't even use water to stop the fire, and the rain in the tunnel when there is a fire makes it a very dangerous area.

FINate

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #272 on: November 24, 2022, 09:28:52 AM »
Everyone knows Teslas are very hard to extinguish when they catch fire, though.   It's not quite as good as candles burning for 8 nights.

I did not know, but you aren't joking. They really are hard to put out. Wow.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/06/22/tesla-fire-sacramento/

That is true vor every battery. Electric cars just have bigger ones. It's one of the things firefighters have been complaining about, especially those with tunnels. I mean you can't even use water to stop the fire, and the rain in the tunnel when there is a fire makes it a very dangerous area.

Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) batteries are much more chemically stable, way less prone to thermal runaway. Also better for the environment and more cycles. Hopefully more BEVs move to LFP even though the energy density is lower.

maizefolk

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #273 on: November 24, 2022, 10:33:51 AM »
Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) batteries are much more chemically stable, way less prone to thermal runaway. Also better for the environment and more cycles. Hopefully more BEVs move to LFP even though the energy density is lower.

The most recent news I read (last spring) was that Tesla was already producing about 50% of their total vehicles with LFP batteries. Definitely seems like a move in the right direction.

LennStar

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #274 on: November 25, 2022, 02:21:57 AM »
Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) batteries are much more chemically stable, way less prone to thermal runaway. Also better for the environment and more cycles. Hopefully more BEVs move to LFP even though the energy density is lower.

The most recent news I read (last spring) was that Tesla was already producing about 50% of their total vehicles with LFP batteries. Definitely seems like a move in the right direction.
The ones in China. Though I think Germany will be too?