Author Topic: Trump Voters.... why?  (Read 256362 times)

thd7t

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #200 on: August 03, 2016, 11:41:21 AM »
Have you looked at the state polls??   Clinton is going to bury Trump.   http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

I find it hard to trust a poll where in 2 days the odds go from 50.1% Trump/49.9% Clinton to 68.4% Clinton.
If only fivethirtyeight had written articles before the conventions predicting this and then articles after the conventions explaining it and how their 3 models work.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-is-clintons-lead-a-bounce-or-a-new-equilibrium//

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clintons-bounce-appears-bigger-than-trumps//

Mississippi Mudstache

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #201 on: August 03, 2016, 11:43:29 AM »
If only fivethirtyeight had written articles before the conventions predicting this and then articles after the conventions explaining it and how their 3 models work.

No need to be snarky. I hadn't heard of 538 until a couple of months ago, when somebody mentioned it on this forum. It's regular reading now :)

Northwestie

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #202 on: August 03, 2016, 11:44:00 AM »
Have you looked at the state polls??   Clinton is going to bury Trump.   http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

I find it hard to trust a poll where in 2 days the odds go from 50.1% Trump/49.9% Clinton to 68.4% Clinton.

That's not a poll; it's an election prediction model based on an aggregation of many polls. It would be worthwhile to familiarize yourself 538's prediction methodology. The Wikipedia article is good. In 2012, they correctly called all 50 states as well as D.C. The reason the model seems so schizophrenic is due to the respective "convention bounces" of both Trump and Clintion, in succession. Click over to the "polls-plus" model, which tries to take into account additional variables, such as convention bounces, economic climate, and incumency, rather than the "polls-only model". You'll see that the "polls-plus" predictions have been more stable over time. However, Nate Silver has cautioned on many occasions that the polls become more predictive about a month after the conventions, when the dust has finally settled. It's really too soon to know if Hillary's current position is just due to the effect of the convention bounce, or something more long-lived.

Ummm, you can dig down and see the actually polling data.

I'll take bets --- Trump is going to lose this in a grand and flaming fashion

thd7t

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #203 on: August 03, 2016, 11:50:30 AM »
If only fivethirtyeight had written articles before the conventions predicting this and then articles after the conventions explaining it and how their 3 models work.

No need to be snarky. I hadn't heard of 538 until a couple of months ago, when somebody mentioned it on this forum. It's regular reading now :)
Well, I was responding to Ender, but still shouldn't have gotten snarky. I think our posts agree on the whole, Mudstache.

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #204 on: August 03, 2016, 11:51:13 AM »
Have you looked at the state polls??   Clinton is going to bury Trump.   http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

I find it hard to trust a poll where in 2 days the odds go from 50.1% Trump/49.9% Clinton to 68.4% Clinton.

That's not a poll; it's an election prediction model based on an aggregation of many polls. It would be worthwhile to familiarize yourself 538's prediction methodology. The Wikipedia article is good. In 2012, they correctly called all 50 states as well as D.C. The reason the model seems so schizophrenic is due to the respective "convention bounces" of both Trump and Clintion, in succession. Click over to the "polls-plus" model, which tries to take into account additional variables, such as convention bounces, economic climate, and incumency, rather than the "polls-only model". You'll see that the "polls-plus" predictions have been more stable over time. However, Nate Silver has cautioned on many occasions that the polls become more predictive about a month after the conventions, when the dust has finally settled. It's really too soon to know if Hillary's current position is just due to the effect of the convention bounce, or something more long-lived.

Ummm, you can dig down and see the actually polling data.

I'll take bets --- Trump is going to lose this in a grand and flaming fashion

Yes, I know you can! I'm not quibbling with you, my response was directed at helping ender understand what he was looking at. The "odds" that he mentioned relate to the model, not the polls I'm not sure that I would have understood it either if I were visiting 538 for the first time, so I was trying to be helpful. :)

Mississippi Mudstache

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #205 on: August 03, 2016, 11:53:58 AM »
If only fivethirtyeight had written articles before the conventions predicting this and then articles after the conventions explaining it and how their 3 models work.

No need to be snarky. I hadn't heard of 538 until a couple of months ago, when somebody mentioned it on this forum. It's regular reading now :)
Well, I was responding to Ender, but still shouldn't have gotten snarky. I think our posts agree on the whole, Mudstache.

I know, I just didn't want ender to feel ambushed for not understanding what 538 was and what they do. As I said, I wouldn't have known either until a couple months ago. No worries, though, just trying to keep the peace :)

ender

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #206 on: August 03, 2016, 12:40:16 PM »
Yes, I know you can! I'm not quibbling with you, my response was directed at helping ender understand what he was looking at. The "odds" that he mentioned relate to the model, not the polls I'm not sure that I would have understood it either if I were visiting 538 for the first time, so I was trying to be helpful. :)

Interestingly, I was basing my skepticism off simply looking at the polling data they use such as http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/florida/  In the case of Florida, it looks like if merely 2% of current Clinton voters voted for Trump, he would be leading Florida polls (based on their adjusted numbers). Or if half of the likely Johnson voters choose Trump instead.

Considering we're 3 months out, there is plenty of time for those numbers to skew either way. Now if the polling data from the end of October shows the same breakdown? That's another thing.

« Last Edit: August 03, 2016, 12:50:35 PM by ender »

jrhampt

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #207 on: August 03, 2016, 12:43:27 PM »
Yes, I know you can! I'm not quibbling with you, my response was directed at helping ender understand what he was looking at. The "odds" that he mentioned relate to the model, not the polls I'm not sure that I would have understood it either if I were visiting 538 for the first time, so I was trying to be helpful. :)

--- Now if the polling data from the end of November shows the same breakdown? That's another thing.

Yeah, because the election will actually be over by then ;-)

Mississippi Mudstache

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #208 on: August 03, 2016, 12:49:16 PM »
Yes, I know you can! I'm not quibbling with you, my response was directed at helping ender understand what he was looking at. The "odds" that he mentioned relate to the model, not the polls I'm not sure that I would have understood it either if I were visiting 538 for the first time, so I was trying to be helpful. :)

Interestingly, I was basing my skepticism off simply looking at the polling data they use such as http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/florida/  In the case of Florida, it looks like if merely 2% of current Clinton voters voted for Trump, he would be leading Florida polls (based on their adjusted numbers). Or if half of the likely Johnson voters choose Trump instead.

Considering we're 3 months out, there is plenty of time for those numbers to skew either way. Now if the polling data from the end of November shows the same breakdown? That's another thing.

Agreed that it's too soon to be calling for a blowout. Florida could go either way, but Trump needs Ohio and Pennsylvania as well to cobble together a winning map. I'm wary of people assuming that the result will be a foregone conclusion (like Brexit), resulting in a light turnout that hands the election to Trump.
« Last Edit: August 03, 2016, 12:52:38 PM by Mississippi Mudstache »

thd7t

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #209 on: August 03, 2016, 12:50:05 PM »
Yes, I know you can! I'm not quibbling with you, my response was directed at helping ender understand what he was looking at. The "odds" that he mentioned relate to the model, not the polls I'm not sure that I would have understood it either if I were visiting 538 for the first time, so I was trying to be helpful. :)

Interestingly, I was basing my skepticism off simply looking at the polling data they use such as http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/florida/  In the case of Florida, it looks like if merely 2% of current Clinton voters voted for Trump, he would be leading Florida polls (based on their adjusted numbers). Or if half of the likely Johnson voters choose Trump instead.

Considering we're 3 months out, there is plenty of time for those numbers to skew either way. Now if the polling data from the end of November shows the same breakdown? That's another thing.
I would agree here and add that most of the state polling is pretty old, so it takes even less into account.

ender

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #210 on: August 03, 2016, 12:53:56 PM »
Yeah, because the election will actually be over by then ;-)

Hah, I originally had "first week of November" but then changed it slightly :P

I would agree here and add that most of the state polling is pretty old, so it takes even less into account.

Also, having worked extensively with optimization and modeling, the outputs of any simulation are only as accurate as the data in. Garbage in --> garbage out.

Three months is a long time. People have underestimated Trump for a long time now too, yet inexplicably he has consistently gained popularity.
« Last Edit: August 03, 2016, 12:56:16 PM by ender »

Mississippi Mudstache

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #211 on: August 03, 2016, 12:58:10 PM »
I would agree here and add that most of the state polling is pretty old, so it takes even less into account.

Also, having worked extensively with optimization and modeling, the outputs of any simulation are only as accurate as the data in. Garbage in --> garbage out.

Three months is a long time. People have underestimated Trump for a long time now too, yet inexplicably he has consistently gained popularity.

Heh, linear optimization and mixed-integer modeling is my job, so I know what you're talking about. I believe that 538 has the strongest (and most transparent) models in the business, but you're absolutely right: three months out is not the time to call the election.

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #212 on: August 03, 2016, 01:57:07 PM »
It's not about "under-educated" vs "educated" at this point.  At this point we now have a candidate without morals or character, and I wouldn't be surprised if he drops out of the race.  He just can't take the heat.

I would be very surprised if he drops out of the race. He's been oblivious to his own asshattery his entire life; why would he change now?

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #213 on: August 03, 2016, 02:11:00 PM »
Has this past week changed anything for Trump supporters?
1. Endless attacks on the Gold Star Khan family, b/c he just can't take the high road
2. Lying about getting a letter from the NFL (so he can start to weasel out of the debates)
3. Purple Heart "the easy way"
4. Lying about his relationship with Putin (said he does not have one or met with him, when he's said 3 times in the past he has)
5. Not realizing Russia was already occupying Ukraine
6. Known Republicans starting to cut losses and deflect to Clinton
7. Treason
8. Not endorsing Ryan/McConnell/McCain, despite them supporting him
9. Respected clinical psychiatrists coming out and diagnosing his pathological lying and narcissism

He's never been on the rails, but now he's setting the train on fire.

Second, but probably not last, time I'll say it in this thread:
Why do you think the people voting for him care about any of these things?  None of that matters in this election.

Clearly you don't get why people are voting for him, or his appeal.  But the type of person who is a Trump fan doesn't give a * about any of the things you listed, and several of them are GOOD things, to them.

It's an intellectual problem you're having.  You think facts are relevant, but sadly, they aren't.  And when they aren't, intelligence is irrelevant as well, so your final question in the post has no meaning.

Arebelspy,

Are you seriously saying that people that voted for Trump don't give a crap about mocking the parents of a fallen soldier?  That 40% of the country has no soul?  His numbers have nosedived in the past week, and he is going to lose in a landslide.

It's not about "under-educated" vs "educated" at this point.  At this point we now have a candidate without morals or character, and I wouldn't be surprised if he drops out of the race.  He just can't take the heat.

I absolutely agree with arebelspy on this point. Nothing Trump has said in the past week is any worse than the multifarious* things he said during primary season. I think Hillary's recovery in the polls has more to do with the successful Democratic convention rather than any of Trump's verbal manure.

*I intentionally used this word because it sounds like a portmanteau of "multiple" and "nefarious".

ender

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #214 on: August 03, 2016, 02:38:30 PM »
Are you seriously saying that people that voted for Trump don't give a crap about mocking the parents of a fallen soldier?  That 40% of the country has no soul?  His numbers have nosedived in the past week, and he is going to lose in a landslide.

It's not about "under-educated" vs "educated" at this point.  At this point we now have a candidate without morals or character, and I wouldn't be surprised if he drops out of the race.  He just can't take the heat.

Yet another person who doesn't "get it."

A large portion of the USA does not care about being politically correct, at all. Chances are if you work a upper middle class office job, you rarely interact with people who are not mostly politically correct in their interactions. This causes your worldview to assume everyone has this attitude and perspective. Which is not even remotely true.

Trump is building a reputation for saying what is on his mind. There are a lot of people who respect that. I suspect Trump supporters have an attitude of, "he's saying things a lot of people think but are afraid to say, and I generally agree with him on X" when it comes to this.

Honestly though? I get that too. I dislike Trump immensely because he's a narcissistic jerk manipulating race to drive popularity. But I do not doubt that he says what is on his mind. He is most definitely not a politician in this regard. I hate the political double speak and shameless pandering and platitudes that politicians are conditioned to give.



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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #215 on: August 03, 2016, 02:46:37 PM »
Yes, I know you can! I'm not quibbling with you, my response was directed at helping ender understand what he was looking at. The "odds" that he mentioned relate to the model, not the polls I'm not sure that I would have understood it either if I were visiting 538 for the first time, so I was trying to be helpful. :)

--- Now if the polling data from the end of November shows the same breakdown? That's another thing.

Yeah, because the election will actually be over by then ;-)

It was over last week

hoping2retire35

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #216 on: August 03, 2016, 02:51:52 PM »
Moustaches,
You will have to think completely outside the box to understand this, but maybe this can help.

when trump first made his announcement last summer (we of course already knew he was going to run and that thought was already in our minds) he starts off by saying something that sounds derogatory and definitely not PC. That immediately tells everyone that he can speak his mind and he has enough money to not grovel to anyone for more of it. Maybe start with that thought and reprocess everything you have heard for the last year.

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #217 on: August 03, 2016, 03:04:14 PM »
I disagree, because the military is worshipped by republicans, and his other multifarious things he has said were against mexicans, the media, muslims, Rosie Odonnell, handicapped people, the pope, Fox News, and other politicians.  None of those groups are nearly as protected a class as the military to the Trump electorate.  Not to mention that he blasted the current speaker of the house who presided over his nomination.

The Khans are Muslim immigrants who criticized Trump at the Democratic National Convention. Trump supporters don't give a shit about them or their son. Full stop. Trump insulted [war hero and former Republican presidential nominee] John McCain's military record early on in the primaries, and everyone assumed he was toast. They were dead wrong. I know it's mind-blowing, but it's the truth. I'm not saying he'll win, but I am saying that he didn't cost himself any voters.

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #218 on: August 03, 2016, 03:06:33 PM »
I disagree, because the military is worshipped by republicans, and his other multifarious things he has said were against mexicans, the media, muslims, Rosie Odonnell, handicapped people, the pope, Fox News, and other politicians.  None of those groups are nearly as protected a class as the military to the Trump electorate.  Not to mention that he blasted the current speaker of the house who presided over his nomination.

The Khans are Muslim immigrants who criticized Trump at the Democratic National Convention. Trump supporters don't give a shit about them or their son. Full stop. Trump insulted [war hero and former Republican presidential nominee] John McCain's military record early on in the primaries, and everyone assumed he was toast. They were dead wrong. I know it's mind-blowing, but it's the truth. I'm not saying he'll win, but I am saying that he didn't cost himself any voters.

You are dead wrong about all Republicans not caring about the Khans.  it was a stupid move on his part.  It may or may not cost him the election.  The only thing keeping trump in this election is the terrible democratic candidate (and vice versa).

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #219 on: August 03, 2016, 03:13:49 PM »
I disagree, because the military is worshipped by republicans, and his other multifarious things he has said were against mexicans, the media, muslims, Rosie Odonnell, handicapped people, the pope, Fox News, and other politicians.  None of those groups are nearly as protected a class as the military to the Trump electorate.  Not to mention that he blasted the current speaker of the house who presided over his nomination.

The Khans are Muslim immigrants who criticized Trump at the Democratic National Convention. Trump supporters don't give a shit about them or their son. Full stop. Trump insulted [war hero and former Republican presidential nominee] John McCain's military record early on in the primaries, and everyone assumed he was toast. They were dead wrong. I know it's mind-blowing, but it's the truth. I'm not saying he'll win, but I am saying that he didn't cost himself any voters.

You are dead wrong about all Republicans not caring about the Khans.  it was a stupid move on his part.  It may or may not cost him the election.  The only thing keeping trump in this election is the terrible democratic candidate (and vice versa).

To be fair, I specified "Trump supporters" and not "Republicans". Let me be more specific: I truly don't believe that anyone among the fervent Pro-Trump crowd cares at all about his comments regarding the Khans. Not in the slightest. I know there are many level-headed Republicans whose stomachs are churning over the comments, but "level-headed Republicans" and "fervent Trump supporters" is not a Venn diagram that intersects to any great extent. If they were going to vote for him before, this won't change their minds. They'll simply justify it with "He'll be more likely to work with Republican leaders in Congress" and "The Supreme Court vacancy is too important to let Hillary fill it!"

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #220 on: August 03, 2016, 03:24:53 PM »
Republicans have been perfectly willing to throw the service of decorated veterans and the sacrifices made by their families under the bus when it is handy, whether it is swiftboating Kerry, going after Cleland, attacking Cindy Sheehan, or mocking Tammy Duckworth.  The treatment of the Khans isn't going to bother many of these people in the least, particularly because they are neither white nor Christian.

arebelspy

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #221 on: August 03, 2016, 03:28:44 PM »
You want to get money out of politics? Start by supporting the party that wants to do the same and overturn Citizens United.

Neither of our two major parties want this, sadly.
That is not true Arebelspy, the dems do want to overturn Citizens United and limited the amount.

I disagree.  I think the base wants it, and Sanders did.  I think Hillary coopted that, but doesn't want it at all, and won't follow through on it, at all.
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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #222 on: August 03, 2016, 03:33:52 PM »
Are you seriously saying that people that voted for Trump don't give a crap about mocking the parents of a fallen soldier?

Yeah, pretty much, or it's an eye-roll minor issue at most. Won't change their vote, as it has nothing to do with why they're voting for Trump.

Quote
That 40% of the country has no soul?

Uh, no?  But 40% of the country IS in favor of Trump, at the moment.

Quote
His numbers have nosedived in the past week, and he is going to lose in a landslide.

Numbers bounce around.  The numbers that matter happen Nov 8.

Quote
It's not about "under-educated" vs "educated" at this point.  At this point we now have a candidate without morals or character, and I wouldn't be surprised if he drops out of the race.  He just can't take the heat.

If he drops out, which wouldn't surprise me, it won't be because of "taking the heat"--it'll be because he thinks he can't win, but his whole persona is built on "winning," so he'll throw a tantrum about some minor thing (debate times, or whatever) and quit.  Then he'll call it a victory when he loses in a landslide because "look how many people voted for me anyways even though I wasn't even running anymore." 
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arebelspy

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #223 on: August 03, 2016, 03:36:38 PM »
I disagree, because the military is worshipped by republicans, and his other multifarious things he has said were against mexicans, the media, muslims, Rosie Odonnell, handicapped people, the pope, Fox News, and other politicians.  None of those groups are nearly as protected a class as the military to the Trump electorate.  Not to mention that he blasted the current speaker of the house who presided over his nomination.

The Khans are Muslim immigrants who criticized Trump at the Democratic National Convention. Trump supporters don't give a shit about them or their son. Full stop. Trump insulted [war hero and former Republican presidential nominee] John McCain's military record early on in the primaries, and everyone assumed he was toast. They were dead wrong. I know it's mind-blowing, but it's the truth. I'm not saying he'll win, but I am saying that he didn't cost himself any voters.

You are dead wrong about all Republicans not caring about the Khans.  it was a stupid move on his part.  It may or may not cost him the election.  The only thing keeping trump in this election is the terrible democratic candidate (and vice versa).

The politically correct leaders (e.g. Paul Ryan) care, and blasted trump for it.  Trump's supporters mostly don't care.

This exactly: The Khans are Muslim immigrants who criticized Trump at the Democratic National Convention. Trump supporters don't give a shit about them or their son. Full stop.

I'm surprised with how much we know now about Trump supporters how many people still don't understand them, or think they'll "come to their senses" or something when Trump says something outrageous.

They LOVE that.  It's not a negative for them.
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Northwestie

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #224 on: August 03, 2016, 03:41:28 PM »
I disagree, because the military is worshipped by republicans, and his other multifarious things he has said were against mexicans, the media, muslims, Rosie Odonnell, handicapped people, the pope, Fox News, and other politicians.  None of those groups are nearly as protected a class as the military to the Trump electorate.  Not to mention that he blasted the current speaker of the house who presided over his nomination.

The Khans are Muslim immigrants who criticized Trump at the Democratic National Convention. Trump supporters don't give a shit about them or their son. Full stop. Trump insulted [war hero and former Republican presidential nominee] John McCain's military record early on in the primaries, and everyone assumed he was toast. They were dead wrong. I know it's mind-blowing, but it's the truth. I'm not saying he'll win, but I am saying that he didn't cost himself any voters.

You are dead wrong about all Republicans not caring about the Khans.  it was a stupid move on his part.  It may or may not cost him the election.  The only thing keeping trump in this election is the terrible democratic candidate (and vice versa).

The politically correct leaders (e.g. Paul Ryan) care, and blasted trump for it.  Trump's supporters mostly don't care.

This exactly: The Khans are Muslim immigrants who criticized Trump at the Democratic National Convention. Trump supporters don't give a shit about them or their son. Full stop.

I'm surprised with how much we know now about Trump supporters how many people still don't understand them, or think they'll "come to their senses" or something when Trump says something outrageous.

They LOVE that.  It's not a negative for them.

Well, there is always going to be some bottom-of-the-barrel supporters that will follow him anywhere, unless he starts eating babies or puppies live on stage.  But his inability to step away from his oversized ego is certainly losing support from independents and thinking members of the GOP.

Northwestie

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #225 on: August 03, 2016, 03:44:08 PM »
The politically correct leaders (e.g. Paul Ryan) care, and blasted trump for it.  Trump's supporters mostly don't care.

Politically correct is how to characterize their criticism?   I'd put it more in the category of a functional brain stem.

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #226 on: August 03, 2016, 03:59:19 PM »
I disagree, because the military is worshipped by republicans, and his other multifarious things he has said were against mexicans, the media, muslims, Rosie Odonnell, handicapped people, the pope, Fox News, and other politicians.  None of those groups are nearly as protected a class as the military to the Trump electorate.  Not to mention that he blasted the current speaker of the house who presided over his nomination.

The Khans are Muslim immigrants who criticized Trump at the Democratic National Convention. Trump supporters don't give a shit about them or their son. Full stop. Trump insulted [war hero and former Republican presidential nominee] John McCain's military record early on in the primaries, and everyone assumed he was toast. They were dead wrong. I know it's mind-blowing, but it's the truth. I'm not saying he'll win, but I am saying that he didn't cost himself any voters.

You are dead wrong about all Republicans not caring about the Khans.  it was a stupid move on his part.  It may or may not cost him the election.  The only thing keeping trump in this election is the terrible democratic candidate (and vice versa).

The politically correct leaders (e.g. Paul Ryan) care, and blasted trump for it.  Trump's supporters mostly don't care.

This exactly: The Khans are Muslim immigrants who criticized Trump at the Democratic National Convention. Trump supporters don't give a shit about them or their son. Full stop.

I'm surprised with how much we know now about Trump supporters how many people still don't understand them, or think they'll "come to their senses" or something when Trump says something outrageous.

They LOVE that.  It's not a negative for them.

Well, there is always going to be some bottom-of-the-barrel supporters that will follow him anywhere, unless he starts eating babies or puppies live on stage.  But his inability to step away from his oversized ego is certainly losing support from independents and thinking members of the GOP.

This is in part why I think an effective strategies (at least one that I can think of) against Trump is to run with the theme of him being a con man who steps on the little guys: his dealings in Atlantic City are a great example of this. He walked away with millions and hosed everybody else. Slogans like, " I wouldn't trust him to paint my house, or fix my car."

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #227 on: August 03, 2016, 04:02:15 PM »
There is an interesting article in the current New Yorker -  a long interview with his ghost writer for the Art of the Deal.  The author's opinion, after being in on numerous meeting and calls with Trump, is that the guy is a cheat, liar, con-man, and a psychopath.

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #228 on: August 03, 2016, 04:20:42 PM »
The politically correct leaders (e.g. Paul Ryan) care, and blasted trump for it.  Trump's supporters mostly don't care.

Politically correct is how to characterize their criticism?   I'd put it more in the category of a functional brain stem.

Pot, meet kettle?

I mean, I know it's currently "in" to be rude/disrespectful/hateful towards other people while trumpeting tolerance and respect for others but... really?

Northwestie

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #229 on: August 03, 2016, 04:49:56 PM »
The politically correct leaders (e.g. Paul Ryan) care, and blasted trump for it.  Trump's supporters mostly don't care.

Politically correct is how to characterize their criticism?   I'd put it more in the category of a functional brain stem.

Pot, meet kettle?

I mean, I know it's currently "in" to be rude/disrespectful/hateful towards other people while trumpeting tolerance and respect for others but... really?

I haven't the slightest idea wtf you're talking about.  My point is that characterizing Ryan's criticism of Trump as "politically correct" is a negating a valid criticism of a moron,  and any thinking person would criticize him as well for berating a Gold Star family.  So yea -

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #230 on: August 03, 2016, 05:44:16 PM »
This is like a bad accident on the highway - you want to look away but you just can't.   You also can't make this stuff up - incredible.

Donald Trump on Wednesday claimed the 9/11 hijackers would have been barred from entering the United States if his proposed ban on Muslim immigration had been in place.

“Those people that knocked down the World Trade Center, most likely, under the Trump policy, wouldn’t have been here to knock down the World Trade Center,”  the Republican presidential nominee told a crowd in Daytona Beach, Florida.


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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #231 on: August 04, 2016, 12:24:44 AM »
Some posters have suggested that if illegal immigrants drive down wages, and if wages for the sort of work they do rose, by whatever means, some goods and services would become too expensive.

In Australia, we have long thought that everybody should get a decent day's pay. Our minimum wage is about A$17 an hour, we have universal health care, and the sky has not fallen in. There is no tipping in Australian restaurants, because waiters are paid properly.

Some of you Americans have visited Australia, and I understand that arebelspy is now visiting. Pls comment on goods and services that you find more expensive in Australia than in America.

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #232 on: August 04, 2016, 12:30:47 AM »
Some of you Americans have visited Australia, and I understand that arebelspy is now visiting. Pls comment on goods and services that you find more expensive in Australia than in America.

America is stupid cheap, in general, for a first world country, so comparisons are silly.  Australia is about on par with Canada, price-wise.  And since they're both 0.75 to the US dollar right now, they're both only slightly more expensive than the U.S. (a meal eating out, groceries, etc.).  The currency discount brings the prices a lot closer to the U.S., and cheaper than many Western European countries, paying in Euros.
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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #233 on: August 04, 2016, 02:58:56 AM »
The debates are still coming which could overturn everything. I can see it happening. Trump spouting un-PC phrases that most common people think while Clinton digs in condemning them with PC platitudes. You'd think she will be ready, but she could be overconfident. Also with the media blasting Trump, he will be the underdog and she the establishment.

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #234 on: August 04, 2016, 05:58:35 AM »
Well, there is always going to be some bottom-of-the-barrel supporters that will follow him anywhere, unless he starts eating babies or puppies live on stage.

<joke>Hey, that's not a bad idea! It's a great strategy win over satanist voters, who (obviously) tend to lean liberal otherwise.</joke>

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #235 on: August 04, 2016, 05:59:42 AM »
Reading the Trump related arguments and so many people just not understanding how an obviously unqualified and generally terrible person who insults people at the drop of a had, shoots off his mouth without thinking, and by all rights should have no real shot at being elected is doing so well . . . it's really disturbing how closely this parallels the conversations we were having in Toronto before Rob Ford was elected.  Be very, very wary of thinking that normal rules of politics (or even decency) apply to this candidate, and don't underestimate his appeal/popularity to certain segments of society.

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #236 on: August 04, 2016, 06:03:14 AM »
Reading the Trump related arguments and so many people just not understanding how an obviously unqualified and generally terrible person who insults people at the drop of a had, shoots off his mouth without thinking, and by all rights should have no real shot at being elected is doing so well . . . it's really disturbing how closely this parallels the conversations we were having in Toronto before Rob Ford was elected.  Be very, very wary of thinking that normal rules of politics (or even decency) apply to this candidate, and don't underestimate his appeal/popularity to certain segments of society.

Bingo.  I've been using Berlusconi, but Rob Ford is another good example.

The people not understanding Trump's appeal also don't seem to understand how much hate there is for Hillary.  Combine the two, and they can't see how he can win.  Someone who understands both combines the two and sees how he's actually got a decent shot.
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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #237 on: August 04, 2016, 07:54:00 AM »
Huh.  Just goes to show you, people are different, and care about different things.

There's a million reasons why I'd never vote for Trump.  But him attacking the Khans wouldn't make the top 100 on my list.  It wouldn't even make the top 100 of "worst things he's said/done," to me.  Maybe it's #1, or top 10, or something, for you. 

People find things to be of different import, based on their life experience.

That may be why you aren't understanding the people who don't find it as big of a deal.

Yeah, it was a dick move.  Okay?  He's done a lot of dick moves.  It didn't surprise me (in fact, I expected it, when I heard the speech, that Trump would lash out--did you really think he was going to take what they said quietly?), and while it was disgusting, again.. okay?

Just trying to give you a little insight into why others are meh on it.  :)
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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #238 on: August 04, 2016, 08:01:35 AM »
I actually think it's pretty intolerant of you to think that most Trump supporters don't care that Trump attacked the parents of a dead soldier.  I admit I'm taking this a bit personally because I've been to too many funerals in my life, including one of my friends who died and I've seen the eyes of grieving parents.  I also have some friends who are currently deployed.

This whole thing makes me think Trump just has no conscience.

I don't understand how this relates.

I found it ironic that someone could bash Trump and support criticism of him for his insensitive comments about the Khans while simultaneously making the implication anyone who supports Trump doesn't have a functional brain stem.

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Jack

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #240 on: August 04, 2016, 08:20:36 AM »
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/08/04/trump-keeps-failing-and-it-doesn-t-matter.html

Gaah! Warn us next time before posting an link with a picture like that! Trump isn't nice to look at in any circumstance, but that facial expression is fucking terrifying!

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #241 on: August 04, 2016, 10:15:22 AM »
Part of it is that everyone sort of expects outrageous behavior during the primaries, but they also expect the candidates to "pivot to the center" during the general election so they can win over moderates.  Trump is not pivoting and thus he's losing support from more and more of the republican establishment because of this.

You can do and say extreme stuff during the primaries in order to excite your base, but during the general you really do need to present a facade of normalcy in order to make non-base voters comfortable with you.  Trump's not doing that.  Politically I think that's a mistake, and it'll cost him the election if he doesn't change it.

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #242 on: August 04, 2016, 11:34:54 AM »
You can do and say extreme stuff during the primaries in order to excite your base, but during the general you really do need to present a facade of normalcy in order to make non-base voters comfortable with you.  Trump's not doing that.  Politically I think that's a mistake, and it'll cost him the election if he doesn't change it.
Is there any consensus on whether he actually wants to win?

It seems he started the whole campaign as self-promotion, when it looked like he had a chance of the nomination he went for it for purely ego reasons (which is the only reason anybody runs of course).

Does he now actually want to be president?
Has he a plan for the presidency beyond winning the biggest prize?
Is his plan to lose but still become the most recognizable name in business for a decade ?

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #243 on: August 04, 2016, 11:52:08 AM »
Is there any consensus on whether he actually wants to win?

"We will have so much winning if I get elected that you may get bored with winning. Believe me."

Does he now actually want to be president?

"One of they key problems today is that politics is such a disgrace. Good people don’t go into government."

Has he a plan for the presidency beyond winning the biggest prize?

"I will build a great, great wall on our southern border and I will make Mexico pay for that wall."

Is his plan to lose but still become the most recognizable name in business for a decade ?

"You know, it really doesn’t matter what the media write as long as you’ve got a young, and beautiful, piece of ass."

My new hobby: answering rhetorical questions with rhetoric.

:)

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #244 on: August 04, 2016, 12:39:32 PM »
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/08/04/trump-keeps-failing-and-it-doesn-t-matter.html

Gaah! Warn us next time before posting an link with a picture like that! Trump isn't nice to look at in any circumstance, but that facial expression is fucking terrifying!

Yet, it would be some sexist travesty to make this statement about Hillary Clinton... how is THIS ok?*

(*I am a voter in a solidly blue state who will be voting for Johnson since I find Hillary to be just as despicable overall as Trump. Trump is obviously more despicable, but it's mitigated somewhat by the fact he doesn't hide it. Hillary is shady for sake of it, even when she doesn't need to be... which brings her about even with Trump in my book.

Jack

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #245 on: August 04, 2016, 12:46:24 PM »
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/08/04/trump-keeps-failing-and-it-doesn-t-matter.html

Gaah! Warn us next time before posting an link with a picture like that! Trump isn't nice to look at in any circumstance, but that facial expression is fucking terrifying!

Yet, it would be some sexist travesty to make this statement about Hillary Clinton... how is THIS ok?*

WTF are you talking about? There was nothing whatsoever sexist about my post. The joke is that the pic is of an insane bug-eyed Trump who looks as if he's about to chew the reader's face off.

If you ever saw that in person, it would be because this is about to happen:


ncornilsen

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #246 on: August 04, 2016, 01:25:41 PM »
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/08/04/trump-keeps-failing-and-it-doesn-t-matter.html

Gaah! Warn us next time before posting an link with a picture like that! Trump isn't nice to look at in any circumstance, but that facial expression is fucking terrifying!

Yet, it would be some sexist travesty to make this statement about Hillary Clinton... how is THIS ok?*

WTF are you talking about? There was nothing whatsoever sexist about my post. The joke is that the pic is of an insane bug-eyed Trump who looks as if he's about to chew the reader's face off.


There are a shocking quantity of pictures of Clinton with an equally insane, crazy, angry, or "about to chew the readers face off" look on her face. I've seen a number of instances when someone makes a joke like yours, along the lines of "Hillary is hard enough to look at anyway, but that picture is fucking terrifying," where that person is called a sexists for implying that her only value is how she looks. So if it's not OK to make fun of Clinton for some of her visual faux pas, how is it OK for you to do it to Trump?

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #247 on: August 04, 2016, 01:46:48 PM »
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/08/04/trump-keeps-failing-and-it-doesn-t-matter.html

Gaah! Warn us next time before posting an link with a picture like that! Trump isn't nice to look at in any circumstance, but that facial expression is fucking terrifying!

Yet, it would be some sexist travesty to make this statement about Hillary Clinton... how is THIS ok?*

WTF are you talking about? There was nothing whatsoever sexist about my post. The joke is that the pic is of an insane bug-eyed Trump who looks as if he's about to chew the reader's face off.


There are a shocking quantity of pictures of Clinton with an equally insane, crazy, angry, or "about to chew the readers face off" look on her face. I've seen a number of instances when someone makes a joke like yours, along the lines of "Hillary is hard enough to look at anyway, but that picture is fucking terrifying," where that person is called a sexists for implying that her only value is how she looks. So if it's not OK to make fun of Clinton for some of her visual faux pas, how is it OK for you to do it to Trump?

The thing is, anyone who tries to claim that men are objectified for their looks and/or judged on them as often as women is full of it. I mean, calling someone ugly is obviously not to be condoned, especially when it is done in an effort to dehumanize an individual (which has happened to both Hillary and Trump, although the former far more often). But it's undeniable that there is a far more pervasive pattern of women in power being criticized/demonized over their looks than there is men. That is why it's silly to be all "ZOMG double standard" about this sort of thing.

It's exactly like with the people who get all hot and bothered about #blacklivesmatter. When one group is incredibly obviously more disadvantaged than another, it's disingenuous to act like a rare attack against the privileged group somehow makes things even. 

Jack

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #248 on: August 04, 2016, 02:02:33 PM »
There are a shocking quantity of pictures of Clinton with an equally insane, crazy, angry, or "about to chew the readers face off" look on her face. I've seen a number of instances when someone makes a joke like yours, along the lines of "Hillary is hard enough to look at anyway, but that picture is fucking terrifying," where that person is called a sexists for implying that her only value is how she looks. So if it's not OK to make fun of Clinton for some of her visual faux pas, how is it OK for you to do it to Trump?

What, you're actually serious? That's a load of drivel unworthy of a real response, but in short: making funny faces invites equal-opportunity ridicule. It is okay to make fun of Clinton for the same.

I demand an apology for your personal attack falsely accusing me of sexism.

ncornilsen

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #249 on: August 04, 2016, 02:36:28 PM »
There are a shocking quantity of pictures of Clinton with an equally insane, crazy, angry, or "about to chew the readers face off" look on her face. I've seen a number of instances when someone makes a joke like yours, along the lines of "Hillary is hard enough to look at anyway, but that picture is fucking terrifying," where that person is called a sexists for implying that her only value is how she looks. So if it's not OK to make fun of Clinton for some of her visual faux pas, how is it OK for you to do it to Trump?

What, you're actually serious? That's a load of drivel unworthy of a real response, but in short: making funny faces invites equal-opportunity ridicule. It is okay to make fun of Clinton for the same.

I demand an apology for your personal attack falsely accusing me of sexism.

I am, of course, being facetious. That picture will be right next to This , This, and this in haunting my dreams for the next decade.

I just figured if my fun was going to spoiled when making fun of these things, I'd join in on the kill-joying. Carry on.