Author Topic: Trump Voters.... why?  (Read 209807 times)

nereo

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1500 on: November 02, 2016, 07:15:04 AM »


Disclaimer; I live in a non swing state so I can do that with a clearer conscience than most. hehe

"Upcountry Carolina - isn't that a swing state?  Or are you in the Palmetto state?

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1501 on: November 02, 2016, 07:16:54 AM »


Disclaimer; I live in a non swing state so I can do that with a clearer conscience than most. hehe

"Upcountry Carolina - isn't that a swing state?  Or are you in the Palmetto state?

I have always assumed he's from the Palmetto State. South Carolinians use the term "Upstate" to refer to their Piedmont region.

nereo

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1502 on: November 02, 2016, 07:19:44 AM »


Disclaimer; I live in a non swing state so I can do that with a clearer conscience than most. hehe

"Upcountry Carolina - isn't that a swing state?  Or are you in the Palmetto state?

I have always assumed he's from the Palmetto State. South Carolinians use the term "Upstate" to refer to their Piedmont region.
ah.  Thanks for the clarification.  Growing up in Virginia we tended to just lump them together as "the Carolinas" or "you're from Carolina, aren't you?"  I suppose I might get offended if people said the same about VA and WV

hoping2retire35

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1503 on: November 02, 2016, 07:34:33 AM »


Disclaimer; I live in a non swing state so I can do that with a clearer conscience than most. hehe

"Upcountry Carolina - isn't that a swing state?  Or are you in the Palmetto state?

I have always assumed he's from the Palmetto State. South Carolinians use the term "Upstate" to refer to their Piedmont region.
ah.  Thanks for the clarification.  Growing up in Virginia we tended to just lump them together as "the Carolinas" or "you're from Carolina, aren't you?"  I suppose I might get offended if people said the same about VA and WV

NC is typically 'western' or WNC. Yes, a slight political connotation by saying 'upcountry'. Prior to being a republic SC used the term 'upcountry' to mean the same area/people. By saying 'upstate' it adds a political notion to where one lives. I prefer to use 'upcountry', because it is older and it takes away from the nation-state in our thought process and would rather focus on the cultural and social aspect. Kinda weird, I know.

Edit; I live very close to, but across a state line, to where MM is originally from. Most of the settlers in that area came through my current location. It was usually the next generation that moved farther West South-West.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2016, 07:37:00 AM by hoping2retire35 »

GreenEggs

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1504 on: November 02, 2016, 08:16:57 AM »
Only the Panthers try to connect NC & SC.  One team is cheaper than two, I guess.

tjalexander

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1505 on: November 02, 2016, 02:57:13 PM »
drain the swamp

tyort1

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1506 on: November 02, 2016, 03:18:20 PM »

nereo

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1507 on: November 02, 2016, 05:13:00 PM »
drain the swamp

Pithy!
Covered on page 29, but a really stupid phrase for anyone to support

arebelspy

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1508 on: November 02, 2016, 05:18:57 PM »
There's multiple Carolinas now?

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nereo

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1509 on: November 02, 2016, 05:43:19 PM »
There's multiple Carolinas now?

What a world we live in!
Yup, there'es at least three based on the universities. North Carolina (UNC), South Carolina (USC) and East Carolina (ECU). There's also western Carolina university, but I think it's just in the western portion of East Carolina. 
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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1510 on: November 02, 2016, 06:18:29 PM »

tyort1

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1511 on: November 02, 2016, 06:52:33 PM »

RangerOne

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1512 on: November 03, 2016, 01:18:24 PM »
It amazes me how quickly those on the left that loved Wikileaks abandoned it, and how quickly those on the right that vilified it jumped up to support it, now that it was releasing information that hurt the left, rather than right.

Just goes to show, people don't want transparency, or free speech, or even truth.  They just want things that hurt the other guy, and not their party.

SAD.

Its always conflicting when you want bad news to be true or not be... coming from someone in Cali in the professional community where  the vast majority of people are left leaning I don't hear a lot of hate going towards wiki leaks. Also I hear very little doubt that likely all or at least most of the Clinton emails are probably 100% unaltered and true.

Most reasonable people on the left are simply trying to decide if it is likely any of the emails so far are a deal breaker. Now maybe most of us are jaded, but I get the feeling that pay to play and lying to cover your ass are honestly what we unfortunately assume is normal among all politicians both Republican and Democrat. What she has done so far is about on par with something like insider trading which honestly I am not losing sleep over. Every president we have had since I was born has had fiscal ties and unsavory dealings with foreign leaders and oligarchs.

When I look at her competition I see a grotesquely ignorant man who frankly has no business managing an ice cream stand. He only has money because he was born into it and had families ties to the business that is still keeping him afloat. His entire existence is built up on perception of success generated by his shameless narcissism.

In this campaign simply based off his intelligence, ignorance and inability to learn he would rank dead last among all potential candidates in the primaries. The fact that he is a self absorbed asshole is just icing on the cake. If he is elected he will have to rely on everyone else to do his job for him because he doesn't understand anything about policy, government or global economics. The guys is a fucking paper weight.

Put Clinton up against someone like Romney and I would vote for Romney because Clinton's foreign policy frankly scares me. And I could give a shit about the affordable care act. But I don't think there has been a single presidential nominee I wouldn't vote for before Trump.

I rank Trump right alongside the Kardashian as a side show freak that people are infatuated with because he is rich and famous. I want to hear about politics from Trump about as much as I want to hear Lena Dunham to tell me why I should be excited about Clinton because she is a woman.

Northwestie

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1513 on: November 03, 2016, 01:23:43 PM »
I rank Trump right alongside the Kardashian as a side show freak that people are infatuated with because he is rich and famous. I want to hear about politics from Trump about as much as I want to hear Lena Dunham to tell me why I should be excited about Clinton because she is a woman.

This.   And yea, I know there is a significant amount of folks frustrated with politics in general, but does that mean it's either a experienced but tarnished one vs. baboon?  WTF is going on with the GOP?

hoping2retire35

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1514 on: November 03, 2016, 01:55:41 PM »
I rank Trump right alongside the Kardashian as a side show freak that people are infatuated with because he is rich and famous. I want to hear about politics from Trump about as much as I want to hear Lena Dunham to tell me why I should be excited about Clinton because she is a woman.

This.   And yea, I know there is a significant amount of folks frustrated with politics in general, but does that mean it's either a experienced but tarnished one vs. baboon?  WTF is going on with the GOP?

I used to think this up until, November of last year. I knew he had been talking about running for President since the 90s and you would occasionally see him on Larry King Live or something. I just figured people were infatuated with him until late November when it was apparent no one else would come to dominate the GOP primary. This was also the first time he had actually made a legitimate run for president.

In the GOP electorate this is a strong, rightly so, perception that candidates speak to their constituents to get elected but succumb to donors wishes once in office. It was clear from the beginning, Trump, if he so chooses, cannot be bought. Even someone like Mitt or the Kardasians who both have 100s of millions of dollars are not wealthy enough to do this.

You are still pissed he may be president in 5 days but maybe you will understand why.

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1515 on: November 03, 2016, 02:11:05 PM »
I rank Trump right alongside the Kardashian as a side show freak that people are infatuated with because he is rich and famous. I want to hear about politics from Trump about as much as I want to hear Lena Dunham to tell me why I should be excited about Clinton because she is a woman.

This.   And yea, I know there is a significant amount of folks frustrated with politics in general, but does that mean it's either a experienced but tarnished one vs. baboon?  WTF is going on with the GOP?

I used to think this up until, November of last year. I knew he had been talking about running for President since the 90s and you would occasionally see him on Larry King Live or something. I just figured people were infatuated with him until late November when it was apparent no one else would come to dominate the GOP primary. This was also the first time he had actually made a legitimate run for president.

In the GOP electorate this is a strong, rightly so, perception that candidates speak to their constituents to get elected but succumb to donors wishes once in office. It was clear from the beginning, Trump, if he so chooses, cannot be bought. Even someone like Mitt or the Kardasians who both have 100s of millions of dollars are not wealthy enough to do this.

You are still pissed he may be president in 5 days but maybe you will understand why.

I think we understand why people support Trump, including the reasons you cite above (aka, drain the swamp). However, that understanding does mean that we think their reasons for supporting actually connect with who and what Trump is, whether he can be bought, or any of the other farsical positive statement about him. He is the definition of someone who has a price, as demonstrated by his willingness to behave unethically on a regular basis in his business dealings. Want to know his price? Look at the marginal return he gets by acting unethically. Why would we expect that behavior to change?

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1516 on: November 03, 2016, 02:26:23 PM »
I rank Trump right alongside the Kardashian as a side show freak that people are infatuated with because he is rich and famous. I want to hear about politics from Trump about as much as I want to hear Lena Dunham to tell me why I should be excited about Clinton because she is a woman.

This.   And yea, I know there is a significant amount of folks frustrated with politics in general, but does that mean it's either a experienced but tarnished one vs. baboon?  WTF is going on with the GOP?

I used to think this up until, November of last year. I knew he had been talking about running for President since the 90s and you would occasionally see him on Larry King Live or something. I just figured people were infatuated with him until late November when it was apparent no one else would come to dominate the GOP primary. This was also the first time he had actually made a legitimate run for president.

In the GOP electorate this is a strong, rightly so, perception that candidates speak to their constituents to get elected but succumb to donors wishes once in office. It was clear from the beginning, Trump, if he so chooses, cannot be bought. Even someone like Mitt or the Kardasians who both have 100s of millions of dollars are not wealthy enough to do this.

You are still pissed he may be president in 5 days but maybe you will understand why.

I think we understand why people support Trump, including the reasons you cite above (aka, drain the swamp). However, that understanding does mean that we think their reasons for supporting actually connect with who and what Trump is, whether he can be bought, or any of the other farsical positive statement about him. He is the definition of someone who has a price, as demonstrated by his willingness to behave unethically on a regular basis in his business dealings. Want to know his price? Look at the marginal return he gets by acting unethically. Why would we expect that behavior to change?

But if we presume all politicians are unethical, Trump is no different from a pure ethics perspective, but has different motivations.  I don't get the feeling Trump wants more power to lord over me.  He wants power to make himself rich.  Still shitty, but different shitty.  So I think people are voting for different shitty versus more of the same shitty. 

Glenstache

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1517 on: November 03, 2016, 02:43:02 PM »
I rank Trump right alongside the Kardashian as a side show freak that people are infatuated with because he is rich and famous. I want to hear about politics from Trump about as much as I want to hear Lena Dunham to tell me why I should be excited about Clinton because she is a woman.

This.   And yea, I know there is a significant amount of folks frustrated with politics in general, but does that mean it's either a experienced but tarnished one vs. baboon?  WTF is going on with the GOP?

I used to think this up until, November of last year. I knew he had been talking about running for President since the 90s and you would occasionally see him on Larry King Live or something. I just figured people were infatuated with him until late November when it was apparent no one else would come to dominate the GOP primary. This was also the first time he had actually made a legitimate run for president.

In the GOP electorate this is a strong, rightly so, perception that candidates speak to their constituents to get elected but succumb to donors wishes once in office. It was clear from the beginning, Trump, if he so chooses, cannot be bought. Even someone like Mitt or the Kardasians who both have 100s of millions of dollars are not wealthy enough to do this.

You are still pissed he may be president in 5 days but maybe you will understand why.

I think we understand why people support Trump, including the reasons you cite above (aka, drain the swamp). However, that understanding does mean that we think their reasons for supporting actually connect with who and what Trump is, whether he can be bought, or any of the other farsical positive statement about him. He is the definition of someone who has a price, as demonstrated by his willingness to behave unethically on a regular basis in his business dealings. Want to know his price? Look at the marginal return he gets by acting unethically. Why would we expect that behavior to change?

But if we presume all politicians are unethical, Trump is no different from a pure ethics perspective, but has different motivations.  I don't get the feeling Trump wants more power to lord over me.  He wants power to make himself rich.  Still shitty, but different shitty.  So I think people are voting for different shitty versus more of the same shitty.

Why should we presume that all politicians are unethical?

Northwestie

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1518 on: November 03, 2016, 02:53:27 PM »
In the GOP electorate this is a strong, rightly so, perception that candidates speak to their constituents to get elected but succumb to donors wishes once in office. It was clear from the beginning, Trump, if he so chooses, cannot be bought. Even someone like Mitt or the Kardasians who both have 100s of millions of dollars are not wealthy enough to do this.

You are still pissed he may be president in 5 days but maybe you will understand why.

HA!  Trump will be luck to even get to 200 electoral votes.  And then the Crybaby will have another fit.  MAYBE he can't be bought.  But it doesn't then make sense to potentially put in place such a vulgar and ignorant person. 

I said he would lose by a landslide from the start and it looks like that will be the case.  Good riddance.

J_Stache

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1519 on: November 03, 2016, 02:55:42 PM »
If Clinton's email issues are so egregious, why doesn't anyone care about Trump's email issues?
http://www.newsweek.com/2016/11/11/donald-trump-companies-destroyed-emails-documents-515120.html

Also, a good primer on why Hillary is "Guilty".
http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/10/31/13474116/clinton-prime-directive

Northwestie

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tyort1

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1521 on: November 03, 2016, 05:33:56 PM »

HA!  Trump will be luck to even get to 200 electoral votes.  And then the Crybaby will have another fit.  MAYBE he can't be bought.  But it doesn't then make sense to potentially put in place such a vulgar and ignorant person. 

I said he would lose by a landslide from the start and it looks like that will be the case.  Good riddance.

Agreed.  Clinton will win by 4 to 7 percent nationally and 330 Electoral Votes, putting Trump right at 200 EV's.  Hopefully less. 

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1522 on: November 03, 2016, 05:54:08 PM »

HA!  Trump will be luck to even get to 200 electoral votes.  And then the Crybaby will have another fit.  MAYBE he can't be bought.  But it doesn't then make sense to potentially put in place such a vulgar and ignorant person. 

I said he would lose by a landslide from the start and it looks like that will be the case.  Good riddance.

Agreed.  Clinton will win by 4 to 7 percent nationally and 330 Electoral Votes, putting Trump right at 200 EV's.  Hopefully less.

Beware complacency!
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Northwestie

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1523 on: November 03, 2016, 05:58:05 PM »
It would be funny in a ha! ha! sort of way.  Ain't going to happen though.  I'm more interested in the CryBaby's reaction on election night.   I'd say I'd have to make a big bowl of popcorn but it will be a short evening.

nereo

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1524 on: November 03, 2016, 06:01:55 PM »

HA!  Trump will be luck to even get to 200 electoral votes.  And then the Crybaby will have another fit.  MAYBE he can't be bought.  But it doesn't then make sense to potentially put in place such a vulgar and ignorant person. 

I said he would lose by a landslide from the start and it looks like that will be the case.  Good riddance.

Agreed.  Clinton will win by 4 to 7 percent nationally and 330 Electoral Votes, putting Trump right at 200 EV's.  Hopefully less.

Beware complacency!
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

It is a bit odd that models which were predicting the chance of a Clinton victory at 92% just two weeks ago are now giving Trump a 30 - 40% chance.  Its a good lesson that these models aren't actually predicting the actual election, but the predicted outcome at the time the model was cast - knowing that factors will change.

nereo

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1525 on: November 03, 2016, 06:10:20 PM »

But if we presume all politicians are unethical, Trump is no different from a pure ethics perspective, but has different motivations.  I don't get the feeling Trump wants more power to lord over me.  He wants power to make himself rich.  Still shitty, but different shitty.  So I think people are voting for different shitty versus more of the same shitty.

That's a bold statement.  Of course different people can set bars for ethical behavior to different heights, but looking back with perspective of history I find it hard to say that all 43 US presidents have been unethical.  I haven't run down the list, but I struggle to name half I'd say were actually unethical.
Then there's your local state representative and town mayor and city councilman.  To be sure you'll find some corrupt ass people there, but by and large I'd argue that most of them act more ethically than the average citizen.  Those lower positions don't pay squat and typically its people who want to improve their community that run for those offices.

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1526 on: November 03, 2016, 06:45:29 PM »

But if we presume all politicians are unethical, Trump is no different from a pure ethics perspective, but has different motivations.  I don't get the feeling Trump wants more power to lord over me.  He wants power to make himself rich.  Still shitty, but different shitty.  So I think people are voting for different shitty versus more of the same shitty.

That's a bold statement.  Of course different people can set bars for ethical behavior to different heights, but looking back with perspective of history I find it hard to say that all 43 US presidents have been unethical.  I haven't run down the list, but I struggle to name half I'd say were actually unethical.
Then there's your local state representative and town mayor and city councilman.  To be sure you'll find some corrupt ass people there, but by and large I'd argue that most of them act more ethically than the average citizen.  Those lower positions don't pay squat and typically its people who want to improve their community that run for those offices.

Thanks, Nereo. Yes.

I was specifically thinking of my mother who was on the local school board for 16 years as a data point against the "all politicians are corrupt." That was a publicly elected position (I helped put out yard signs and fliers), the compensation was effectively zilch, and it consumed a lot of time.

Quite frankly, I find that sentiment both cynical and intellectually lazy. It is easy to lump and just write it all of in frustration. However, that: 1) leads to poor decision making, and 2) prevents people from getting involved and actually doing something, 3) impunges the character of good people.

tyort1

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1527 on: November 03, 2016, 06:57:38 PM »
Glenstasche, you are a very wise man.  And I completely agree with you.

Also, re: 538, I was a big fan of Nate's in 2008 and 2012 but he's changed his model a bit and not for the better, IMO.  It's become far more noisy and volatile this election.  Probably because he includes national numbers and also tries to tie "alike" states together into clusters.  IMO, Sam Wang at Princeton Election Consortium is a better aggregator this election, and is actually closer to the model Nate used so effectively in 2008 and 2012.  Essentially he looks at the state polls and only the state polls and treats each data point as independent of any other state. 

Sam has Hilz at 97%.  And a 4.5% lead.  I think that's correct, but it underestimates the lead by a couple percent due to the fact that Clinton has a pretty impressive ground game and Trump does not.  So that will pad the margin a bit. 

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1528 on: November 03, 2016, 07:06:13 PM »
Glenstasche, you are a very wise man.  And I completely agree with you.

Also, re: 538, I was a big fan of Nate's in 2008 and 2012 but he's changed his model a bit and not for the better, IMO.  It's become far more noisy and volatile this election.  Probably because he includes national numbers and also tries to tie "alike" states together into clusters.  IMO, Sam Wang at Princeton Election Consortium is a better aggregator this election, and is actually closer to the model Nate used so effectively in 2008 and 2012.  Essentially he looks at the state polls and only the state polls and treats each data point as independent of any other state. 

Sam has Hilz at 97%.  And a 4.5% lead.  I think that's correct, but it underestimates the lead by a couple percent due to the fact that Clinton has a pretty impressive ground game and Trump does not.  So that will pad the margin a bit.

Thanks, tyort.

I am very interested in the post mortem on the election prediction models this year because the turnout dynamics could be very different. Trump got off the ground in the primaries by mobilizing voters who simply usually did not show up ("I love the uneducated." and documented in an internal campaign memo published on 538). Will this leverage some states or percentages?  I don't know how Clinton's turnout will work either. She has an impressive machine, but the 30 years of attacks on her have left a lot of voters apathetic and more likely to stay home, or vote third party. The element I'm most interested, frankly as a litmus test, is how many people will say Clinton in public but secretly vote Trump because that is what is in the crevices of their heart when push comes to shove.

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1529 on: November 03, 2016, 07:46:10 PM »
I'd be surprised if Trump gets above 43%, honestly.  One thing I'm seeing in early voting so far is that women are turning out in unusually high numbers this election, and I seriously doubt they are turning out for Trump.  Trump's path to victory is pretty tenuous - turn out enough new angry uneducated white men to offset Hillary's crushing lead among black people, latinos, millenials, and her more modest but substantial lead among all women.  If women stayed home and black people were voting for her in lower percentages than they did for Obama, then Trump might have a chance.  But so far the exact opposite is happening - women are turning out in record numbers, black people are supporting Hillz at very similar levels of Obama, and in states with big latino populations, they are also showing up at record numbers. 

For swing states, I think she takes Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia and Wisconsin.  And maybe Arizona.  I think Trump will grab Iowa and and maybe Ohio and that's it.

But you are right, the post mortem is going to be interesting.  Well, it'll be interesting for the R's, because the D's obviously have the winning formula right now, at least at the presidential level.

Kris

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1530 on: November 03, 2016, 07:48:48 PM »
I personally predict a Trump victory.

oldtoyota

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1531 on: November 03, 2016, 07:50:31 PM »

HA!  Trump will be luck to even get to 200 electoral votes.  And then the Crybaby will have another fit.  MAYBE he can't be bought.  But it doesn't then make sense to potentially put in place such a vulgar and ignorant person. 

I said he would lose by a landslide from the start and it looks like that will be the case.  Good riddance.

Agreed.  Clinton will win by 4 to 7 percent nationally and 330 Electoral Votes, putting Trump right at 200 EV's.  Hopefully less.

What makes you guys so sure? I'm over here biting my nails.

The 538 blog isn't even looking that good anymore.

oldtoyota

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1532 on: November 03, 2016, 07:58:41 PM »
It amazes me how quickly those on the left that loved Wikileaks abandoned it, and how quickly those on the right that vilified it jumped up to support it, now that it was releasing information that hurt the left, rather than right.

Just goes to show, people don't want transparency, or free speech, or even truth.  They just want things that hurt the other guy, and not their party.

SAD.

I hear what you're saying, but I cheered when Wiki released telegrams from HRC when she was SOS. However, they released emails from Podesta and I didn't see much of use coming through. I used to find Wiki useful These days, Wiki seems to be the land of the irrelevant, and it's definitely one sided. I feel like it's drowning me in trivia.

tyort1

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1533 on: November 03, 2016, 08:19:23 PM »

What makes you guys so sure? I'm over here biting my nails.

The 538 blog isn't even looking that good anymore.

See for yourself - look at all 11 battleground states - http://www.politico.com/2016-election/swing-states

Only states where Trump has a lead is Iowa and Ohio.  All the others are either tossups (Florida, North Carolina), or clear leads for Clinton (every other state).  I think she'll take Florida due to higher than usual Latino turnout and NC she's up by a point and I think the superior ground game will add a point there.  Iowa and especially Ohio I don't see moving toward Clinton because so much money and attention have been spent there already so I think they are fully baked. 

chesebert

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1534 on: November 03, 2016, 08:29:54 PM »
What more important than who wins is figuring out how to make either of them obey existing laws. They both have a tendency to commit crimes.

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1535 on: November 03, 2016, 08:50:11 PM »
I think Hillary should win Nevada though it's very close. My understanding from a previous analysis article in 538  is that polling in Nevada under represents the latino vote, and that this was a reason why in 2012 the polling was skewed 3 to 4% more republican than the actual vote was for Obama. Nevada is not only crucial for Hillary, but also for the Democratic takeover of the Senate, which is vital in order to allow Hillary to appoint Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court. Such an appointment to the Supreme Court would enable the court to rule favorably on Obama's Clean Power Plan;  CO2 emissions from power plants would now finally be able to regulated for the first time. Global warming, something Trump denies exists, is one of the most dangerous problems facing the planet.

sol

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1536 on: November 03, 2016, 08:56:36 PM »
Global warming, something Trump denies exists, is one of the most dangerous problems facing the planet.

While I agree that global warming is a serious problem of our own making, let's not get too hyberbolic about the threat level.  A Trump Presidency could reasonably end human life in nuclear winter within the first week of taking office, and I think that's a more "dangerous problem" than is climate change.

waltworks

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1537 on: November 03, 2016, 08:58:22 PM »
It will be very close. Which scares the crap out of me. Major life decisions (whether to have another kid, wife needs to go back to work, etc) depend on the ACA or at least some form of functional healthcare system existing. So our family is quite literally waiting for the results of the election to make those decisions.

I've considered yanking my entire investment account out of the stock market, and I see the feeling is mutual among basically all investors. Ugh.

I am terrified to live in a country that would even consider Trump a legitimate candidate. If he wins, I hope I'm wrong and that everything works out ok. But man, I hate to think we're considering rolling the dice like that.

-W

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1538 on: November 03, 2016, 09:04:38 PM »
Global warming, something Trump denies exists, is one of the most dangerous problems facing the planet.

While I agree that global warming is a serious problem of our own making, let's not get too hyberbolic about the threat level.  A Trump Presidency could reasonably end human life in nuclear winter within the first week of taking office, and I think that's a more "dangerous problem" than is climate change.

Ha, ironic laugh! 

sol

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1539 on: November 03, 2016, 09:20:06 PM »
I am terrified to live in a country that would even consider Trump a legitimate candidate.

I think Hillary will win and the post-election analysis will focus on what kind of fucked up country we have that Trump got as many votes as he did.  Seriously, who votes for someone like that?  As a candidates go, the GOP would have been better off with literally anyone else.  My local city councilman is a Republican, and he would have gotten more votes.  He's never bragged about sexual assault.

But if Trump does somehow miraculously win the presidency, part of me will gloat.  Democracies all have to self destruct eventually, and if this is what Americans want then this is what they deserve to get.  Watch me sit back and let the country reap what it hath sown.  If we can survive four years of it, the buyer's remorse would be strong enough that I'm not sure Republicans could ever win a national election again.

dividendman

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1540 on: November 03, 2016, 09:23:32 PM »
I am terrified to live in a country that would even consider Trump a legitimate candidate.

I think Hillary will win and the post-election analysis will focus on what kind of fucked up country we have that Trump got as many votes as he did.  Seriously, who votes for someone like that?  As a candidates go, the GOP would have been better off with literally anyone else.  My local city councilman is a Republican, and he would have gotten more votes.  He's never bragged about sexual assault.

But if Trump does somehow miraculously win the presidency, part of me will gloat.  Democracies all have to self destruct eventually, and if this is what Americans want then this is what they deserve to get.  Watch me sit back and let the country reap what it hath sown.  If we can survive four years of it, the buyer's remorse would be strong enough that I'm not sure Republicans could ever win a national election again.

I read an article somewhere that human beings were too dumb for democracy, maybe they're right.

MasterStache

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1541 on: November 04, 2016, 05:28:51 AM »
I am terrified to live in a country that would even consider Trump a legitimate candidate.

+1,000

hoping2retire35

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1542 on: November 04, 2016, 06:02:34 AM »

But if we presume all politicians are unethical, Trump is no different from a pure ethics perspective, but has different motivations.  I don't get the feeling Trump wants more power to lord over me.  He wants power to make himself rich.  Still shitty, but different shitty.  So I think people are voting for different shitty versus more of the same shitty.

That's a bold statement.
  Of course different people can set bars for ethical behavior to different heights, but looking back with perspective of history I find it hard to say that all 43 US presidents have been unethical.  I haven't run down the list, but I struggle to name half I'd say were actually unethical.
Then there's your local state representative and town mayor and city councilman.  To be sure you'll find some corrupt ass people there, but by and large I'd argue that most of them act more ethically than the average citizen.  Those lower positions don't pay squat and typically its people who want to improve their community that run for those offices.

Yes, you are right. That is a bold statement.

NoStacheOhio

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1543 on: November 04, 2016, 06:33:07 AM »
Glenstasche, you are a very wise man.  And I completely agree with you.

Also, re: 538, I was a big fan of Nate's in 2008 and 2012 but he's changed his model a bit and not for the better, IMO.  It's become far more noisy and volatile this election.  Probably because he includes national numbers and also tries to tie "alike" states together into clusters.  IMO, Sam Wang at Princeton Election Consortium is a better aggregator this election, and is actually closer to the model Nate used so effectively in 2008 and 2012.  Essentially he looks at the state polls and only the state polls and treats each data point as independent of any other state. 

Sam has Hilz at 97%.  And a 4.5% lead.  I think that's correct, but it underestimates the lead by a couple percent due to the fact that Clinton has a pretty impressive ground game and Trump does not.  So that will pad the margin a bit.

I tend to lean toward 538 on this one, with the higher-than-normal "undecideds" there should be more noise and volatility. Also, why do you think states should be treated independently? Historically, there's plenty of basis for correlation among certain states (e.g. Great Lakes, interior West, Northeast).

NoStacheOhio

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1544 on: November 04, 2016, 06:34:42 AM »
Global warming, something Trump denies exists, is one of the most dangerous problems facing the planet.

While I agree that global warming is a serious problem of our own making, let's not get too hyberbolic about the threat level.  A Trump Presidency could reasonably end human life in nuclear winter within the first week of taking office, and I think that's a more "dangerous problem" than is climate change.

*sadface*

nereo

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1545 on: November 04, 2016, 06:42:10 AM »
Global warming, something Trump denies exists, is one of the most dangerous problems facing the planet.

While I agree that global warming is a serious problem of our own making, let's not get too hyberbolic about the threat level.  A Trump Presidency could reasonably end human life in nuclear winter within the first week of taking office, and I think that's a more "dangerous problem" than is climate change.

Well with Trump there's the potential for a two-fer.  He's been the most willing candidate to allow nuclear proliferation and use of our own arsenal, and he has promised repeatedly to do away with all the enviornmental regulation including eliminating the entire EPA.
So with Trump - if it's no one, it'll be the other one.

MasterStache

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1546 on: November 04, 2016, 07:34:33 AM »
Global warming, something Trump denies exists, is one of the most dangerous problems facing the planet.

While I agree that global warming is a serious problem of our own making, let's not get too hyberbolic about the threat level.  A Trump Presidency could reasonably end human life in nuclear winter within the first week of taking office, and I think that's a more "dangerous problem" than is climate change.

Well with Trump there's the potential for a two-fer.  He's been the most willing candidate to allow nuclear proliferation and use of our own arsenal, and he has promised repeatedly to do away with all the enviornmental regulation including eliminating the entire EPA.
So with Trump - if it's no one, it'll be the other one.

Well to be fair we won't need the EPA when we are all doused in nuclear radiation if you weren't incinerated instantly in the initial blast.

nereo

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1547 on: November 04, 2016, 08:48:04 AM »
This discussion of nuclear weapons and global warming got my thinking...

Lately both politicians and society in general haven't done a very good job distinguishing between short term challenges and generational challenges. For examples, things like current unemployment, refugies and the debt ceiling are immediate challenges while climate change, social security and infrastructure are generational challenges.

Part of is reflected in the language we use - "immediate" vs "long-term".  The implication is that immediate challenges are now and therefore must be dealt with, while generational challenges are things we can only afford to look at once all immediate challenges have been met.  Since there will always be immediate challenges we keep pushing back generational ones.  This is manifested in statements like "We can't afford to do ______ until we fix all the [insert immediate challenges] problems in our country".

Ironically many of the short term challenges are smaller in magnitude than the generational ones, yet if we addressed the generational ones now they'd cost orders of magnitude less than if we allow them to snowball to epic proportions (and potentially becoming immediate challenges).

I'm not sure how we can change this trajectory. It would certainly be nice if we could focus on how to make our country stronger 20 years from now instead of how to make things look better before the next election cycle (or for the opposition - how to show the current leaders have been ineffective). As MMMers, I think we get this better than most - we'll eagerly forego shiny trinkets now in exchange for long term security (eg IRAs over new cars). 

thd7t

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1548 on: November 04, 2016, 09:54:04 AM »
Glenstasche, you are a very wise man.  And I completely agree with you.

Also, re: 538, I was a big fan of Nate's in 2008 and 2012 but he's changed his model a bit and not for the better, IMO.  It's become far more noisy and volatile this election.  Probably because he includes national numbers and also tries to tie "alike" states together into clusters.  IMO, Sam Wang at Princeton Election Consortium is a better aggregator this election, and is actually closer to the model Nate used so effectively in 2008 and 2012.  Essentially he looks at the state polls and only the state polls and treats each data point as independent of any other state. 

Sam has Hilz at 97%.  And a 4.5% lead.  I think that's correct, but it underestimates the lead by a couple percent due to the fact that Clinton has a pretty impressive ground game and Trump does not.  So that will pad the margin a bit.

Thanks, tyort.

I am very interested in the post mortem on the election prediction models this year because the turnout dynamics could be very different. Trump got off the ground in the primaries by mobilizing voters who simply usually did not show up ("I love the uneducated." and documented in an internal campaign memo published on 538). Will this leverage some states or percentages?  I don't know how Clinton's turnout will work either. She has an impressive machine, but the 30 years of attacks on her have left a lot of voters apathetic and more likely to stay home, or vote third party. The element I'm most interested, frankly as a litmus test, is how many people will say Clinton in public but secretly vote Trump because that is what is in the crevices of their heart when push comes to shove.
We should mention that Trump's primary turnout strategy involved people who don't usually vote in primaries, but do usually vote in general elections.

dividendman

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Re: Trump Voters.... why?
« Reply #1549 on: November 04, 2016, 09:58:45 AM »
Well nereo, one way to do it is to change the constitution so there is a requirement of a technocratic government. That is, the people get to choose the leaders of various posts and the Congress makes laws, but only after the professional organizations of those areas nominate some kind of list or make proposals.

So, just like how the various Canadian law societies "short list" supreme court candidates for the Prime Minister you could do the similar things with laws and Cabinet positions in America.

While you would still have a Congress, they couldn't just pass laws willy-nilly:

Want a tax reform law? Gather a panel of economic and tax experts to present various plans each of which Congress votes on.
Want to allow more fracking and oil drilling? Gather a panel (nominated by the professional bodies of environmental and energy organizations) to offer proposals to Congress.
Want to change the regulations around the internet or telecommunciations? Same thing.

Similarly, the President's cabinet would be short-listed as well.

I think this type of government could work very well. Of course, this is government by the (technocratic) "elite". And why not? They are the ones who know the stuff. It's absurd to get laymen (and voters) to understand and vote on the ins and outs of complex issues without the experts distilling it for us first.