I'd be surprised if Trump gets above 43%, honestly. One thing I'm seeing in early voting so far is that women are turning out in unusually high numbers this election, and I seriously doubt they are turning out for Trump. Trump's path to victory is pretty tenuous - turn out enough new angry uneducated white men to offset Hillary's crushing lead among black people, latinos, millenials, and her more modest but substantial lead among all women. If women stayed home and black people were voting for her in lower percentages than they did for Obama, then Trump might have a chance. But so far the exact opposite is happening - women are turning out in record numbers, black people are supporting Hillz at very similar levels of Obama, and in states with big latino populations, they are also showing up at record numbers.
For swing states, I think she takes Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia and Wisconsin. And maybe Arizona. I think Trump will grab Iowa and and maybe Ohio and that's it.
But you are right, the post mortem is going to be interesting. Well, it'll be interesting for the R's, because the D's obviously have the winning formula right now, at least at the presidential level.