Trump to take action against Chinese software companies

[scottish]

This is an interesting story.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-trump-to-take-action-against-chinese-software-companies-in-coming/

President Donald Trump will take action shortly on Chinese software companies that are feeding data directly to the Beijing government, posing a risk to U.S. national security, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Sunday.

“President Trump has said ‘enough’ and we’re going to fix it and so he will take action in the coming days with respect to a broad array of national security risks that are presented by software connected to the Chinese Communist Party,” Pompeo said on Fox News Channel’s “Sunday Morning Futures.”

I completely agree that something should be done.   (For that matter, something should be done about Facebook and Google, too.)   Privacy is a big problem, and the PRC government's approach to it is pretty Orwellian.     PRC citizens have a computerized social credit score.    You lose points for jaywalking, failing to pay your debts and other petty crimes.    You gain points for being a good party member, paying your bills on time and other things that notionally benefit the larger community.   If you don't have enough points, many of your freedoms are restricted.    You may be banned from air travel, or from train travel.    You may lose access to certain types of job opportunities.     And we all know about the situation in Xinjiang with the Uyghurs.

The question is *how* will the prez take action.    It's proven to be very difficult to ban or blacklist anything on the internet.    If you build a firewall (a great firewall?) to block IP access people will use tunnels such as VPNs or TOR to get around it.     If you remove the domain name it will pop up in a different DNS tree.    And eliminating availability of an application is even harder.

What do you think trump will do?    Will he ask apple and google to remove it from their app stores?     (but what about the installed user base...   I supposed if the Apple "blacklists" an app it could be removed automatically from your iphone)

Will he build a great firewall of America?

Maybe he won't do anything...

[Wolfpack Mustachian]

I don't have anything to add, but I am interested in what is going to happen. I have no idea how he would go making restrictions that would be meaningful, but it seems like some regulation would be of use.

[GuitarStv]

This will amount to nothing, but it's a great grab bag of words for Trump in the upcoming election.

[HPstache]

Pretty sure what this all means is that he is banning Tiktok

[Wolfpack Mustachian]

This will amount to nothing, but it's a great grab bag of words for Trump in the upcoming election.

It most likely will amount to nothing, but I'm more curious about what scottish was asking about in terms of how he would propose doing it if he actually proposes something. Banning an app that is this popular is at least an interesting thought experiment in terms of how it would be done.

[talltexan]

Yes, TikTok is the problem that's killing 1,000 new people daily. Focus on that, Sec. Pompeo.

[Travis]

Microsoft is asking permission to buy the company. So instead of the Chinese leaching and storing your personal data, it'll stay with the American companies you've already been giving it to for the last decade.

[BDWW]

I think you're thinking too hardcore on the how.  This isn't like trying to stamp out the pirate bay or something, this is a mainstream - read non-techy - social media platform. Any small measure such as DNS delisting will effectively kill it. Effective social media requires ease of use, sharing, and low barrier to entry.

DNS delisting or IP blocks would cut the US user base by 99%, and it would die on the vine . 

[bacchi]

I think you're thinking too hardcore on the how.  This isn't like trying to stamp out the pirate bay or something, this is a mainstream - read non-techy - social media platform. Any small measure such as DNS delisting will effectively kill it. Effective social media requires ease of use, sharing, and low barrier to entry.

DNS delisting or IP blocks would cut the US user base by 99%, and it would die on the vine .

Nah. One tiktok explaining how to get around a DNS delisting or IP block would solve it. Using an offshore VPN would take care of both problems, for example.

These kids grew up on the internet; they aren't boomers.

[HPstache]

Someone in the US is guaranteed to already be working on a replacement.  Tiktok will be dead if any sort of restrictions are put in place.

[bacchi]

Yes, TikTok is the problem that's killing 1,000 new people daily. Focus on that, Sec. Pompeo.

But...the children!!

[Just Joe]

Yep TikTok is a problem we're told. Yet nothing said about porn or 4Chan or any of the dark rabbit holes around the web.

[scottish]

Here it is, Pompeo's 5 point plan.

https://www.state.gov/secretary-michael-r-pompeo-at-a-press-availability-10/

1.  PRC carriers are not allowed to connect to US networks.   
2.  Chinese apps removed from US app stores.
3.  Chinese phone vendors not allowed to pre-install popular US apps
4.  US information can not be stored in a Chinese cloud
5.  Doing something secret to ensure that China can't spy on undersea cables.

Pretty much a big nothing-burger.

[alsoknownasDean]

3.  Chinese phone vendors not allowed to pre-install popular US apps

This one is potentially a big one. That'd mean that all Chinese-owned smartphone companies would be prohibited from pre installing Google apps, like the restrictions already in place on Huawei.

That includes popular brands like Xiaomi, Oppo, vivo, OnePlus, realme, Alcatel (owned by TCL) and Motorola (owned by Lenovo).

[bacchi]

3.  Chinese phone vendors not allowed to pre-install popular US apps

This one is potentially a big one. That'd mean that all Chinese-owned smartphone companies would be prohibited from pre installing Google apps, like the restrictions already in place on Huawei.

That includes popular brands like Xiaomi, Oppo, vivo, OnePlus, realme, Alcatel (owned by TCL) and Motorola (owned by Lenovo).

"We’re working to prevent Huawei and other untrusted vendors from pre-installing or making available for download the most popular U.S. apps. We don’t want companies to be complicit in Huawei’s human rights abuses or the CCP’s surveillance apparatus."

It's odd that Pompeo mentions Huawei, which already has this restriction in place. It might be a nothing-burger if Pompeo and Trump (again) only go after Huawei.

So it depends on whether Alcatel or Moto or etc. become untrusted vendors.

[Jack0Life]

I have no qualms in saying I hate the CCP.
I really couldn't careless the reason for banning Chinese apps.
They have banned US for years to ensure censorship. Some of the popular US apps banned in China,
Google.
Facebook.
Twitter.
YouTube.
Instagram. ...
Gmail. ...
WhatsApp. ...
Google Maps.

[chesebert]

I am willing to sign a waiver for using Wechat - I am well aware that everything I say on Wechat is being read by a team of Internet police in Shenzhen.

[Just Joe]

So are they basically trying to ban Aliexpress and other Chinese online vendors? So the consumer needs to rely on middlemen located in the US?

With everything coming from China these days - where am I supposed to go for those oddball but affordable items I want for my hobbies?

I expect the factories to remain in China, the prices due to the middleman to triple or quadruple and the selection to shrink to a fraction of the myriad of options currently available b/c the importer will only carry what they sell a ton of while the low demand items are unavailable.

If so - what happened to that famous free market philosophy we hear so much about?

[talltexan]

If so - what happened to that famous free market philosophy we hear so much about?

It's like a Republican has been plucked straight out of 2014 and placed here.

[scottish]

In related news, companies in mainland China are recruiting large numbers of technical experts in chip fabrication from Taiwan.    (Trump has blocked Huawei from access to chips manufactured using US developed equipment.)

This attempt at protectionism is causing China to accelerate their rate of innovation.

[chesebert]

In related news, companies in mainland China are recruiting large numbers of technical experts in chip fabrication from Taiwan.    (Trump has blocked Huawei from access to chips manufactured using US developed equipment.)

This attempt at protectionism is causing China to accelerate their rate of innovation.

This will amount to nothing, just like all other "natively developed" chips - See Han Xin: The Hanxin 1 was reportedly the first DSP chip to have been wholly developed in China. However, the chip was later revealed to have been developed in the West, with the original identifications sanded away.

Chip manufacturing is even more difficult or next to impossible with US export control in full force. For example you simply cannot make an EUV machine (the ones that will get you 7nm and beyond) without components from the US. Chip manufacturing is truly a global effort, and without US support, it is simply not possible to produce any modern chip. I believe China is at least a decade behind TSMC in terms of manufacturing capability - likely 20 years given Intel has been trying for years to get to 7nm at scale and failing bad.

[scottish]

In related news, companies in mainland China are recruiting large numbers of technical experts in chip fabrication from Taiwan.    (Trump has blocked Huawei from access to chips manufactured using US developed equipment.)

This attempt at protectionism is causing China to accelerate their rate of innovation.

This will amount to nothing, just like all other "natively developed" chips - See Han Xin: The Hanxin 1 was reportedly the first DSP chip to have been wholly developed in China. However, the chip was later revealed to have been developed in the West, with the original identifications sanded away.

Chip manufacturing is even more difficult or next to impossible with US export control in full force. For example you simply cannot make an EUV machine (the ones that will get you 7nm and beyond) without components from the US. Chip manufacturing is truly a global effort, and without US support, it is simply not possible to produce any modern chip. I believe China is at least a decade behind TSMC in terms of manufacturing capability - likely 20 years given Intel has been trying for years to get to 7nm at scale and failing bad.

Are you in the chip fab business?

[chesebert]

In the chip design business, a long long time ago.

[cerat0n1a]

I was a chip designer, but worked in a fab in the distant past.

Cheesebert is completely correct. Trump certainly has the power to kill Huawei. China's annual imports of semiconductors are larger in dollar terms than their imports of oil. They're well aware of the massive power imbalance and have been trying very hard in the past decade to do something about it. China can certainly design its own chips, including their own CPU designs, but they are nowhere near being able to fab them themselves. They rely on Taiwan. If the US says no fab equipment, and tells TSMC, Samsung etc. not to make chips for China, they're absolutely stuck.

I assumed the TikTok thing was simply a retaliation for the disastrous rally in Tulsa, and nothing to do with the Huawei punch-up

[chesebert]

I would even argue that I fully expect in a not so distant future China will also lose almost 100% of its chip design capability given all modern EDA and testing/simulation providers are US companies with some minor players from Japan and Taiwan - all US allies.

[cerat0n1a]

I would even argue that I fully expect in a not so distant future China will also lose almost 100% of its chip design capability given all modern EDA and testing/simulation providers are US companies with some minor players from Japan and Taiwan - all US allies.

Yep, very good point. No Cadence, Synopsys or Mentor means no chip design or test. Possibly they could pirate the software, but would still be pretty difficult.

China is well aware that the US has the power to do something more economically damaging than blocking their oil imports, they've been trying very hard for some years to get out of the noose, but they're some way off.

[chesebert]

Actually it’s even worse given pirating software in this case does not work. EDA was one of the first industry to go cloud based. The EDA design rules are linked with foundries and are updated constantly. Even if you pirate the software you don’t have access to the design rules, actually even if you somehow get the design rules it’s going to be useless given TMSC/Samsung etc aren’t making the chips for China - I note SMIC and Grace can make 22nm chips on a mass scale so there is that.

Like I said, China is likely 20yrs behind, and almost has no chance of catching up no matter how much money they throw at the problem.

[scottish]

I dunno guys.   I work in telecommunications, not chip design or fabrication.   

I remember 15-20 years ago the big first world telecoms companies were equally confident (we were over-confident...) that Huawei was not a threat in our markets.   Now they're the dominant player and Alcatel, Nortel and Lucent are history with E// and Nokia fighting for market share.    My  preference is that Chinese companies do not achieve global dominance in the technology sector, so I hope you're right.

[chesebert]

I dunno guys.   I work in telecommunications, not chip design or fabrication.   

I remember 15-20 years ago the big first world telecoms companies were equally confident (we were over-confident...) that Huawei was not a threat in our markets.   Now they're the dominant player and Alcatel, Nortel and Lucent are history with E// and Nokia fighting for market share.    My  preference is that Chinese companies do not achieve global dominance in the technology sector, so I hope you're right.

I am pretty confident about chips. Once SoftBank sells or lists ARM in the US that will put the final nail in the coffin for Chinese chips.

[cerat0n1a]

I dunno guys.   I work in telecommunications, not chip design or fabrication.   

I remember 15-20 years ago the big first world telecoms companies were equally confident (we were over-confident...) that Huawei was not a threat in our markets.   Now they're the dominant player and Alcatel, Nortel and Lucent are history with E// and Nokia fighting for market share.    My  preference is that Chinese companies do not achieve global dominance in the technology sector, so I hope you're right.

I've done plenty of work with Chinese companies in the past, including Huawei. It's not that there aren't plenty of smart engineers there, or the will to do it from the Chinese government. It's taken hundreds of thousands of smart people working for decades to get us to where we are. The world is so interconnected. I suspect even the USA would struggle on packaging and chip assembly today without using foreign technology. They could become self-sufficient pretty quickly, but it needs things like the recent "Chips for America Act" to make it happen.

I am pretty confident about chips. Once SoftBank sells or lists ARM in the US that will put the final nail in the coffin for Chinese chips.

Arm has to do what the US government says. If Trump says no sales to China, there's no sales to China. Chinese companies can use RISC-V, or modify the ARM designs they already have, but as you pointed out, that's no good without tools or anyway to get stuff manufactured.

I was once in Moscow to work with former Soviet chip designers. Some incredibly talented people, but all they could do was reverse engineer Western stuff, and they had to operate many years behind and they were actually able to access Western tools and equipment. China would not even have that. I don't think it would be nail in the coffin, they can't afford to just give up on this.

Of course, a total ban would be pretty devastating for many companies outside of China. Their nearly $500 billion of chip imports annually is putting a lot of money into foreign companies, and of course most of that stuff is being re-exported, in the form of iPhones or whatever.

[chesebert]

I agree. Thanks for geeking out! Now back to PPT and LP reports... sign.