OP's note:
It's probably fair to say that I've been consumed by this year's presidential election.
Simply having both candidates disliked by the majority of the electorate is interesting.
Recently I've been pondering how each candidate's lives might change if they lose in November, and to me the changes for Trump seem far greater than for Clinton, and I believe there's a great likelihood that there could be a domino-effect on Trump should he lose on the largest of stages.
This is simply a thought exercise. Feel free to give your own alternative prediction(s).
The big idea: Donald Trump’s brand is built on the idea of luxury and exclusivity, and he’s made the bulk of his money by selling goods and services at a steep markup while leveraging his debt. Assuming he fails to win the presidency in November his ability to continue to follow this pattern will be severely compromised. While it may be a stretch to assume his businesses will fail, his brand may never reap the profit margins it did before, costing him untold millions annually.
How this could happen
Trump has been a polarizing figure in politics to put it mildly. Curiously, the reported billionaire has exploited populist appeal and his core support comes from white, blue collar workers. Registered republicans with advanced degrees are among the least likely of his voters to be avid supporters (they are party voters, not Trump voters), and Trump has record levels of opposition with registered democrats.
The political fallout.
As Trump himself would say, “Nobody likes a loser.” Republicans in particular hate the idea of losing to a candidate they have spent decades on opposing and delegitimizing. Party identify runs very deep in the US, but few Republicans associate Trump with Republicanism. The hard core conservatives will be quick to turn their back on Trump. They’ll say, “the reason we lost is because we again failed to nominate a true conservative” and “republicans win when it comes down to a discussion on values and ideals”. Most long-term politicians will close their doors because “you couldn’t even beat Hillary. HILLARY!!” Republican mega-donors are far too practical: they only back individuals that have a shot at winning. The working professionals that make up a good chunk of the Republican electorate will go back to blaming Clinton for every ailment in our country and blaming Clinton (and Obama) for it. Trump’s chances (and even desire) of being a US senator in NY are practically nil, so his political career is over.
After the election and its aftermath, who’s left supporting Trump?
Here’s where the rubber meets the road. The people who will continue to support Trump will be his most passionate supporters now. These are mostly blue-collar, white, rural or exurban individuals. Problem: his businesses cater to the affluent suburban and urban individual who can afford an $850 night hotel room or a $400 round of golf. Many of them (those that are Democrats and the true Republican conservatives) will be so turned off by his presidential bid that they’ll avoid anything named Trump. Others might not care, but they won’t pay a premium to stay at Trump’s new hotel in DC when there’s a Westin or Fairmont nearby for considerably less. The ones that are left supporting him are individuals that aren’t Trump’s target audience. Contractors are run by people, and they’ve all heard the accusations of him stiffing contractors and may be more cautious when doing business with the Trump Organization. And since many of the long term politicians have turned their backs on him (see above) district attorneys are going to be more open about pursuing complaints against his businesses. I believe we're already seeing that with NY ordering the Trump Foundation to cease raising money and undergo an audit.
The bottom line
The Trump brand will lose it's luster. It will no longer have the competitive edge that it once had and it may even become a liability. Businesses will be less willing to pay Trump a large percentage of their profits simply to stick his name on the label. To be fair, DJT (the man) will most likely be just fine; Fox will most likely offer him a few million to be a commentator (allowing him to stroke his own ego in the process by saying "i told you so!" and claiming everything would have been peaches and roses if he were in power). Some network will almost certainly offer him a show, though probably not for the $213MM that NBC awarded him for The Apprentice. However, the Trump Organization and his own personal wealth will never again approach what they were (how much that actually was we can only guess) before he announced his presidential bid.
Of course I could be completely wrong. Maybe the increased media exposure will mean that his businesses will do even better and he'll reap massive financial rewards. What do you think?
