Author Topic: Trump outrage of the day  (Read 593380 times)

frugalnacho

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7950 on: May 13, 2021, 01:03:54 PM »
I gotta call bullshit on the whole not being aware that 70% of republicans don't accept the election.  It's not some weird fringe belief that you can only find in the dark recesses of some internet forum or something.  The former president made the claim hundreds of times and still does to this day.  The republicans literally voted Liz Cheney out of her leadership position this week for having the temerity to counter Trump's narrative about it.  There was a literal insurrection at the capitol.  My social circle is not that huge and even I personally know people with this opinion.  That opinion is parroted over and over in the right wing media.  The left wing media covers it too - there is literally no media you can consume that doesn't in some way address this. 

nereo

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7951 on: May 13, 2021, 01:13:14 PM »
I gotta call bullshit on the whole not being aware that 70% of republicans don't accept the election.  It's not some weird fringe belief that you can only find in the dark recesses of some internet forum or something.  The former president made the claim hundreds of times and still does to this day.  The republicans literally voted Liz Cheney out of her leadership position this week for having the temerity to counter Trump's narrative about it.  There was a literal insurrection at the capitol.  My social circle is not that huge and even I personally know people with this opinion.  That opinion is parroted over and over in the right wing media.  The left wing media covers it too - there is literally no media you can consume that doesn't in some way address this.

Well that's not entirely true.  I can think of at least one news source that's popular among several of my family members where they've never even mentioned the "big lie".

frugalnacho

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7952 on: May 13, 2021, 01:28:52 PM »
Is it technically still a news source if they stopped producing it 32 years ago?  Isn't it an olds source now?

Glenstache

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7953 on: May 13, 2021, 02:19:01 PM »
Is it technically still a news source if they stopped producing it 32 years ago?  Isn't it an olds source now?
Everyone knows they are just puppets for the liberal elite.

OzzieandHarriet

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7954 on: May 13, 2021, 06:10:33 PM »
I gotta call bullshit on the whole not being aware that 70% of republicans don't accept the election.  It's not some weird fringe belief that you can only find in the dark recesses of some internet forum or something.  The former president made the claim hundreds of times and still does to this day.  The republicans literally voted Liz Cheney out of her leadership position this week for having the temerity to counter Trump's narrative about it.  There was a literal insurrection at the capitol.  My social circle is not that huge and even I personally know people with this opinion.  That opinion is parroted over and over in the right wing media.  The left wing media covers it too - there is literally no media you can consume that doesn't in some way address this.

Well that's not entirely true.  I can think of at least one news source that's popular among several of my family members where they've never even mentioned the "big lie".

These family members ... are they toilet-trained yet?

nereo

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7955 on: May 13, 2021, 07:07:27 PM »
I gotta call bullshit on the whole not being aware that 70% of republicans don't accept the election.  It's not some weird fringe belief that you can only find in the dark recesses of some internet forum or something.  The former president made the claim hundreds of times and still does to this day.  The republicans literally voted Liz Cheney out of her leadership position this week for having the temerity to counter Trump's narrative about it.  There was a literal insurrection at the capitol.  My social circle is not that huge and even I personally know people with this opinion.  That opinion is parroted over and over in the right wing media.  The left wing media covers it too - there is literally no media you can consume that doesn't in some way address this.

Well that's not entirely true.  I can think of at least one news source that's popular among several of my family members where they've never even mentioned the "big lie".

These family members ... are they toilet-trained yet?

We’re working on it...

GuitarStv

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7956 on: May 13, 2021, 07:13:13 PM »
I gotta call bullshit on the whole not being aware that 70% of republicans don't accept the election.  It's not some weird fringe belief that you can only find in the dark recesses of some internet forum or something.  The former president made the claim hundreds of times and still does to this day.  The republicans literally voted Liz Cheney out of her leadership position this week for having the temerity to counter Trump's narrative about it.  There was a literal insurrection at the capitol.  My social circle is not that huge and even I personally know people with this opinion.  That opinion is parroted over and over in the right wing media.  The left wing media covers it too - there is literally no media you can consume that doesn't in some way address this.

Well that's not entirely true.  I can think of at least one news source that's popular among several of my family members where they've never even mentioned the "big lie".

These family members ... are they toilet-trained yet?

We’re working on it...

The MAGA insurrectionists weren't.

Roadrunner53

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7957 on: May 14, 2021, 05:41:20 AM »

ncornilsen

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7958 on: May 14, 2021, 10:07:09 AM »

I spent a bit of time reading on Frum. He's coming from a place of disillusionment with the populist pivot the party has made, and I actually share alot of his sentiments about that. I'm far more moderate than the snippets of opinion I post here would make me seem... I'm a natural contrarian and the leftist perspective is quite over-represented here.

Perhaps he's right. No republican I know of supports these platform ideals to the extremes presented nor for the bad intent ascribed by his article, but, perhaps, some of the politicians in Washington do; and they hide that part to get votes from your every-day republicans.

Which of Frum's 13 planks do you disagree with and why?

from my observations these all seem to be very much the positions of today's GOP.  They are echoed by party leadership (e.g. House Freedom Caucus), are championed by conservative talk show hosts like Tucker Carlson and the late Limbaugh, and - based on polling - are broadly shared by self-identified GOP voters.

Running down the list, among the GOP the following are popular opinions:
1) The 2017 tax cut (TCJA) remains popular, as is support for further reducing tax rates
2) The coronavirus is not a big problem, but our responses to it (e.g. mask wearing) are, and trust in the CDC among the GOP is abysmally low
3) Climate change is not a big problem, and the GOP is opposed to large spending deals to address climate change (e.g. "Green New Deal" or Biden's plan to support renewable energy)
4) China is a eminent threat which must be addressed via military spending
5) trade and alliance structures built after World War II are outdated. The days of NATO and the World Trade Organization are over. The EU should be treated like a rival
6) Health care is a purchase like any other. Individuals should make their own best deals in the insurance market with minimal government supervision. Those who pay more should get more. Those who cannot pay must rely on Medicaid, accept charity, or go without.
7) Voting is a privilege. States should have wide latitude to regulate that privilege
8) Anti-Black racism has ceased to be an important problem in American life.
9) The courts should move gradually and carefully toward eliminating the mistake made in 1965, when women’s sexual privacy was elevated into a constitutional righ
10) The post-Watergate ethics reforms overreached. ... the Trump administration has met all reasonable ethical standards.
11) Trump’s border wall is the right policy to slow illegal immigration; the task of enforcing immigration rules should not fall on business operators.
12) The country is gripped by a surge of crime and lawlessness as a result of the Black Lives Matter movement and its criticism of police. PThe priority now should be to stop crime by empowering police.
13) In the face of the overwhelming and unfair onslaught against President Donald Trump by the media and the “deep state,” his occasional excesses on Twitter and at his rallies should be understood as pardonable reactions to much more severe misconduct by others.

which of these do you disagree with?

As I said, I agree with all of them with some quibbling... the quibbling would, however, change quite a bit of the subtext of the "why" and "to what extent."

9&10 I don't really find much to agree with, though.

For the 70% number - seems high. Among the republicans I know, only a few of the fringy ones seem to hold that opinion, but I won't aurgue that polling data.

Quote
Whoop.  Not sure I understand what you're saying here.  Are you claiming that the election is illegitimate?  Or are you just upset that some states allowed greater than normal mail in voting during a pandemic?

I'm saying that some states violated their own processes to change election rules. Doing so probably did NOT affect the outcome, but did give Trump quite a few talking points to bolster his lie.

GuitarStv

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7959 on: May 14, 2021, 10:10:42 AM »
Quote
Whoop.  Not sure I understand what you're saying here.  Are you claiming that the election is illegitimate?  Or are you just upset that some states allowed greater than normal mail in voting during a pandemic?

I'm saying that some states violated their own processes to change election rules. Doing so probably did NOT affect the outcome, but did give Trump quite a few talking points to bolster his lie.

As one of the small minority of Republicans who don't believe that the last election was conducted fraudulently, do you believe that these alleged violations of process are why the party you support has so wholeheartedly embraced this obvious lie?

Davnasty

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7960 on: May 14, 2021, 01:26:57 PM »
I'm saying that some states violated their own processes to change election rules. Doing so probably did NOT affect the outcome, but did give Trump quite a few talking points to bolster his lie.

Can you give specific examples of how states violated their processes to change election rules?

I've heard some of the claims but every one I've looked into didn't hold up to scrutiny. Perhaps more importantly though, It's not like Trump has ever needed something to be true in order to make it a talking point. It doesn't really matter how strictly state lawmakers stuck to the rules, Trump and his allies can manufacture some semi-plausible reality (which as far as I've seen is what they did) and anyone who wants it to be true will believe it without digging into the details.

OtherJen

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7961 on: May 14, 2021, 02:44:45 PM »
I'm saying that some states violated their own processes to change election rules. Doing so probably did NOT affect the outcome, but did give Trump quite a few talking points to bolster his lie.

Can you give specific examples of how states violated their processes to change election rules?

I've heard some of the claims but every one I've looked into didn't hold up to scrutiny. Perhaps more importantly though, It's not like Trump has ever needed something to be true in order to make it a talking point. It doesn't really matter how strictly state lawmakers stuck to the rules, Trump and his allies can manufacture some semi-plausible reality (which as far as I've seen is what they did) and anyone who wants it to be true will believe it without digging into the details.

I'm also curious. Michigan seemed to be a favorite target of election fraud claims after the 2020 election. However, the changes to our election process were due to the will of the state's voters in 2018. Statewide ballot Proposal 3, colloquially known as "Promote the Vote," passed by a 2-to-1 margin in 2018. Michiganders overwhelmingly voted in favor of increasing access to absentee ballots, streamlining voter registration, and maintaining straight-ticket voting options.

LennStar

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7962 on: May 15, 2021, 08:18:46 AM »

My favorite example is from the 2009 German elections were you got 91% for and 92% against exactly the same thing just by formulating the question in a slightly different way (changing the emphasis from A to B, while still including A).

Wording of the question always matters.  It mattered in the Quebec separation referendum.  It mattered about gay marriage legislation in Canada - Canadians make a lot of decisions based on "fairness" so people who didn't like gay marriage as gay marriage were totally for legislation allowing gay couples to be treated legally the same as heterosexual couples because of fairness things like pensions, able to speak for spouse re health matters in hospital, etc.
Excuse me, but marriage is not the same as legal treatment in this context. Marriage is the religious service. Tax etc. is a state recognition of that, but you can have the same treatment without doing the religious marriage.

"Registered partnership" was the wording in Germany for the state treatment of homosexual partners. (before - only hetero -  people simply said church/state marriage, which is where the confusion stems from imho and of course from history where it was basically the same) You had a registered partnership, but you were not married (because that is church business).
Gay Marriage refers to the church service including gays. You can have a gay marriage without the state stuff about taxes.

And if the Australiens are so hard on fairness, why isn't there a 3/4/5 partner "marriage"? ;)

Here in the US, it's perfectly common to have a nonreligious wedding ceremony. The church/synagogue/mosque/temple isn't required for legal marriage.
It's the other way round in Germany. The marriage in the church does not make you a legal pair.


Point #2 doesn’t go far enough. I’ve heard and seen many right-wing claims to the effect that masking is more dangerous to health than COVID.
The most funny thing out of this: There seems to be an anti-masker group that now uses mask so they don't get infected by vaccines (vaccinated people, probably because of their state-engineered viruses?).

I can confirm that lumber is more expensive here in Canada . . . and to the best of my knowledge neither Biden nor Trump were our president.

Strange, last time I checked (was a year ago, so maybe Covid had not hit that part) lumber was extremely cheap here. And it was not because of Trump. Reason was the climate catastrophe giving us an example of how the weather will be normal in 50 years. They could not cut down the trees as fast as they were dying.

lemanfan

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7963 on: May 15, 2021, 09:50:58 AM »

Strange, last time I checked (was a year ago, so maybe Covid had not hit that part) lumber was extremely cheap here. And it was not because of Trump. Reason was the climate catastrophe giving us an example of how the weather will be normal in 50 years. They could not cut down the trees as fast as they were dying.

I don't know where the lumber sold in Germany normally comes from, but my guess is that it it's noticeably more expensive there too this year.  A friend reported a 30% increase in price of regular lumber in retail stores here in Sweden compared to "regular prices".

According to my sources, the Scandinavian supplies are less than normal this year, and American companies have been buying up everything they can here in Sweden which puts more strain on supplies and increases prices further.

And Sweden is a country to a large extent covered in trees. :)

JLee

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7964 on: May 15, 2021, 11:33:37 AM »
Strange, last time I checked (was a year ago, so maybe Covid had not hit that part) lumber was extremely cheap here. And it was not because of Trump. Reason was the climate catastrophe giving us an example of how the weather will be normal in 50 years. They could not cut down the trees as fast as they were dying.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/lumber-prices-have-increased-worldwide-in-the-second-half-of-2020-with-us-prices-almost-doubling-301201102.html

scottish

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7965 on: May 15, 2021, 06:21:46 PM »

Strange, last time I checked (was a year ago, so maybe Covid had not hit that part) lumber was extremely cheap here. And it was not because of Trump. Reason was the climate catastrophe giving us an example of how the weather will be normal in 50 years. They could not cut down the trees as fast as they were dying.

I don't know where the lumber sold in Germany normally comes from, but my guess is that it it's noticeably more expensive there too this year.  A friend reported a 30% increase in price of regular lumber in retail stores here in Sweden compared to "regular prices".

According to my sources, the Scandinavian supplies are less than normal this year, and American companies have been buying up everything they can here in Sweden which puts more strain on supplies and increases prices further.

And Sweden is a country to a large extent covered in trees. :)

We have 15x as much forest in Canada and we have the same problem.   My neighbour (a general contractor) says that the lumber yards are operating at reduced capacity due to covid requirements.

RetiredAt63

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7966 on: May 15, 2021, 08:58:04 PM »

Strange, last time I checked (was a year ago, so maybe Covid had not hit that part) lumber was extremely cheap here. And it was not because of Trump. Reason was the climate catastrophe giving us an example of how the weather will be normal in 50 years. They could not cut down the trees as fast as they were dying.

I don't know where the lumber sold in Germany normally comes from, but my guess is that it it's noticeably more expensive there too this year.  A friend reported a 30% increase in price of regular lumber in retail stores here in Sweden compared to "regular prices".

According to my sources, the Scandinavian supplies are less than normal this year, and American companies have been buying up everything they can here in Sweden which puts more strain on supplies and increases prices further.

And Sweden is a country to a large extent covered in trees. :)

We have 15x as much forest in Canada and we have the same problem.   My neighbour (a general contractor) says that the lumber yards are operating at reduced capacity due to covid requirements.

A guy at my community garden paid 3X as much this year for boards for raised beds.  So prices are up all over.

Joel

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7967 on: May 15, 2021, 10:02:31 PM »
Paper to make boxes is also seriously impacted. Prices are through the roof, and supply is nonexistent.

LennStar

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7968 on: May 16, 2021, 04:50:44 AM »

Strange, last time I checked (was a year ago, so maybe Covid had not hit that part) lumber was extremely cheap here. And it was not because of Trump. Reason was the climate catastrophe giving us an example of how the weather will be normal in 50 years. They could not cut down the trees as fast as they were dying.

I don't know where the lumber sold in Germany normally comes from, but my guess is that it it's noticeably more expensive there too this year.  A friend reported a 30% increase in price of regular lumber in retail stores here in Sweden compared to "regular prices".

According to my sources, the Scandinavian supplies are less than normal this year, and American companies have been buying up everything they can here in Sweden which puts more strain on supplies and increases prices further.

And Sweden is a country to a large extent covered in trees. :)

Haha, yes, just stumbled upon 2 articles that lumber prices have exploded 20 minutes ago.

One reason is that US prices are so high, means that a lot of lumber was exported. Second reason is the Corona-building-boom. So many people don't know what to do, so they build something. And because the prices have been rising, everyone scrambled to get lumber before the prices rise even more... and we have the same situation like one year ago when you could not get toilet paper anywhere.

OtherJen

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7969 on: May 16, 2021, 10:32:51 AM »
In keeping with Trump's long-established love of stamping his name on everything he controls, we should probably just let him officially rebrand the Republican party as the Trump party. He can replace the red elephant with a big, gold "TRUMP."

Republicans weigh in on Liz Cheney and direction of GOP — CBS News poll

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7970 on: May 16, 2021, 11:08:41 AM »
In keeping with Trump's long-established love of stamping his name on everything he controls, we should probably just let him officially rebrand the Republican party as the Trump party. He can replace the red elephant with a big, gold "TRUMP."

Republicans weigh in on Liz Cheney and direction of GOP — CBS News poll

Honestly, I can't understand how the Republican party has gone from trying a decently effective TV personality President (Regan) to desperately hanging on to an unpopular and obviously flawed individual like Trump.  I hope nothing like this happens to the Democrats, but the Republican party needs to figure out how to stop splintering ever since the TEA folks and Rove showed up...  Although they to paint their opposition as 'radicals' (which should be the obvious sign of their own failings, not having a core of their own), it is the conservative factions that are way too far right...  Biden and AOC are perfect foils for BS like Trump and MTG - diligently and competently going about their work as the bluster and flailing look increasingly silly and counterproductive.     

OtherJen

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7971 on: May 16, 2021, 12:57:29 PM »
In keeping with Trump's long-established love of stamping his name on everything he controls, we should probably just let him officially rebrand the Republican party as the Trump party. He can replace the red elephant with a big, gold "TRUMP."

Republicans weigh in on Liz Cheney and direction of GOP — CBS News poll

Honestly, I can't understand how the Republican party has gone from trying a decently effective TV personality President (Regan) to desperately hanging on to an unpopular and obviously flawed individual like Trump.  I hope nothing like this happens to the Democrats, but the Republican party needs to figure out how to stop splintering ever since the TEA folks and Rove showed up...  Although they to paint their opposition as 'radicals' (which should be the obvious sign of their own failings, not having a core of their own), it is the conservative factions that are way too far right...  Biden and AOC are perfect foils for BS like Trump and MTG - diligently and competently going about their work as the bluster and flailing look increasingly silly and counterproductive.   

AOC would be within her rights to obtain a restraining order against MTG, who increasingly seems completely unhinged.

nereo

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7972 on: May 16, 2021, 02:25:27 PM »
In keeping with Trump's long-established love of stamping his name on everything he controls, we should probably just let him officially rebrand the Republican party as the Trump party. He can replace the red elephant with a big, gold "TRUMP."

Republicans weigh in on Liz Cheney and direction of GOP — CBS News poll

Honestly, I can't understand how the Republican party has gone from trying a decently effective TV personality President (Regan) to desperately hanging on to an unpopular and obviously flawed individual like Trump.  I hope nothing like this happens to the Democrats, but the Republican party needs to figure out how to stop splintering ever since the TEA folks and Rove showed up...  Although they to paint their opposition as 'radicals' (which should be the obvious sign of their own failings, not having a core of their own), it is the conservative factions that are way too far right...  Biden and AOC are perfect foils for BS like Trump and MTG - diligently and competently going about their work as the bluster and flailing look increasingly silly and counterproductive.   

AOC would be within her rights to obtain a restraining order against MTG, who increasingly seems completely unhinged.

Seems to me behavior like that shown by MTG won't do the GOP any long-term favors.  Sure, it gets the Qanon crowd riled up and is red meat for the base, but it simultaneously turns off independent, non-white and younger voters. 

To me, AOC's consistent refusal to engage is the winning hand.  Let MTG act more and more unhinged; let Pelosi put the everything under investigation.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7973 on: May 16, 2021, 02:44:54 PM »
This Republican 'all in bet' is becoming increasingly problematic - https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/13/politics/sally-yates-liz-cheney-axe-files/index.html

Quote
"And I think all of us watched with horror that day at what was happening at our nation's Capitol with also a feeling of, OK, this has to be it. Regardless of where one is on the political spectrum, surely we can all agree that this can never happen again -- that this is going at the very bedrock of our democracy. And it seemed like that lasted for maybe a week or so. Maybe a little bit longer than that. And then even there it is dissipated now. We can't even unify around that."

sui generis

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7974 on: May 16, 2021, 04:06:08 PM »
In keeping with Trump's long-established love of stamping his name on everything he controls, we should probably just let him officially rebrand the Republican party as the Trump party. He can replace the red elephant with a big, gold "TRUMP."

Republicans weigh in on Liz Cheney and direction of GOP — CBS News poll

Honestly, I can't understand how the Republican party has gone from trying a decently effective TV personality President (Regan) to desperately hanging on to an unpopular and obviously flawed individual like Trump.  I hope nothing like this happens to the Democrats, but the Republican party needs to figure out how to stop splintering ever since the TEA folks and Rove showed up...  Although they to paint their opposition as 'radicals' (which should be the obvious sign of their own failings, not having a core of their own), it is the conservative factions that are way too far right...  Biden and AOC are perfect foils for BS like Trump and MTG - diligently and competently going about their work as the bluster and flailing look increasingly silly and counterproductive.   

AOC would be within her rights to obtain a restraining order against MTG, who increasingly seems completely unhinged.

Seems to me behavior like that shown by MTG won't do the GOP any long-term favors.  Sure, it gets the Qanon crowd riled up and is red meat for the base, but it simultaneously turns off independent, non-white and younger voters. 

To me, AOC's consistent refusal to engage is the winning hand.  Let MTG act more and more unhinged; let Pelosi put the everything under investigation.

Unfortunately, the GOP doesn't require a majority of voters to win. And probably by pure accident, they have stumbled into tactics *and* policies that are a turn-off for the majority of voters, but red meat for exactly the right (geographically) voters to make sure that they can still win the elections needed to control what they want to control.  We got lucky in November 2020 and just by the skin of our teeth.  It's gonna be a while before their coalition isn't enough numerically to win, so long as they can keep them angry enough to turn out at pretty high levels.  And if they can do that in 2022 and 2024....they can cement minority rule even further as they continue losing numbers. 

OtherJen

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7975 on: May 16, 2021, 04:12:47 PM »
In keeping with Trump's long-established love of stamping his name on everything he controls, we should probably just let him officially rebrand the Republican party as the Trump party. He can replace the red elephant with a big, gold "TRUMP."

Republicans weigh in on Liz Cheney and direction of GOP — CBS News poll

Honestly, I can't understand how the Republican party has gone from trying a decently effective TV personality President (Regan) to desperately hanging on to an unpopular and obviously flawed individual like Trump.  I hope nothing like this happens to the Democrats, but the Republican party needs to figure out how to stop splintering ever since the TEA folks and Rove showed up...  Although they to paint their opposition as 'radicals' (which should be the obvious sign of their own failings, not having a core of their own), it is the conservative factions that are way too far right...  Biden and AOC are perfect foils for BS like Trump and MTG - diligently and competently going about their work as the bluster and flailing look increasingly silly and counterproductive.   

AOC would be within her rights to obtain a restraining order against MTG, who increasingly seems completely unhinged.

Seems to me behavior like that shown by MTG won't do the GOP any long-term favors.  Sure, it gets the Qanon crowd riled up and is red meat for the base, but it simultaneously turns off independent, non-white and younger voters. 

To me, AOC's consistent refusal to engage is the winning hand.  Let MTG act more and more unhinged; let Pelosi put the everything under investigation.

Unfortunately, the GOP doesn't require a majority of voters to win. And probably by pure accident, they have stumbled into tactics *and* policies that are a turn-off for the majority of voters, but red meat for exactly the right (geographically) voters to make sure that they can still win the elections needed to control what they want to control.  We got lucky in November 2020 and just by the skin of our teeth.  It's gonna be a while before their coalition isn't enough numerically to win, so long as they can keep them angry enough to turn out at pretty high levels.  And if they can do that in 2022 and 2024....they can cement minority rule even further as they continue losing numbers.

That’s what I fear is happening. They don’t need to worry about the long-term strategy. If they can rig the system enough in their favor, they can lock in minority rule and power structures that will take decades to dismantle. Remember, this has been in the works since the Goldwater campaign (and certainly earlier).

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7976 on: May 16, 2021, 06:00:42 PM »
In keeping with Trump's long-established love of stamping his name on everything he controls, we should probably just let him officially rebrand the Republican party as the Trump party. He can replace the red elephant with a big, gold "TRUMP."

Republicans weigh in on Liz Cheney and direction of GOP — CBS News poll

Honestly, I can't understand how the Republican party has gone from trying a decently effective TV personality President (Regan) to desperately hanging on to an unpopular and obviously flawed individual like Trump.  I hope nothing like this happens to the Democrats, but the Republican party needs to figure out how to stop splintering ever since the TEA folks and Rove showed up...  Although they to paint their opposition as 'radicals' (which should be the obvious sign of their own failings, not having a core of their own), it is the conservative factions that are way too far right...  Biden and AOC are perfect foils for BS like Trump and MTG - diligently and competently going about their work as the bluster and flailing look increasingly silly and counterproductive.   

AOC would be within her rights to obtain a restraining order against MTG, who increasingly seems completely unhinged.

Seems to me behavior like that shown by MTG won't do the GOP any long-term favors.  Sure, it gets the Qanon crowd riled up and is red meat for the base, but it simultaneously turns off independent, non-white and younger voters. 

To me, AOC's consistent refusal to engage is the winning hand.  Let MTG act more and more unhinged; let Pelosi put the everything under investigation.

Unfortunately, the GOP doesn't require a majority of voters to win. And probably by pure accident, they have stumbled into tactics *and* policies that are a turn-off for the majority of voters, but red meat for exactly the right (geographically) voters to make sure that they can still win the elections needed to control what they want to control.  We got lucky in November 2020 and just by the skin of our teeth.  It's gonna be a while before their coalition isn't enough numerically to win, so long as they can keep them angry enough to turn out at pretty high levels.  And if they can do that in 2022 and 2024....they can cement minority rule even further as they continue losing numbers.

They've tried this, with mixed results.  Gerrymandering and voter suppression have given the greater representation and a louder microphone than they otherwise would have, but OTOH they lost the house, the senate and WH in the last election, and got clobbered in an otherwise very favorable time period the cycle previous (2018).  Even when they were in control they utterly squandered those opportunities to pass some seriously conservative laws because they were too disorganized to get much done.

Maybe we need to go through a few more cycles before we can made hard conclusions, but in my eyes they have every advantage (both fair and unfair/illegal) yet they aren't doing terribly well.

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7977 on: May 16, 2021, 07:06:08 PM »
Part of that is because gerrymandering can only get you so far. The house popular vote totals for the past cycles have been:

Year: D - R (Seats)
2020: 51 - 48 (222 - 213)
2018: 53 - 45 (235 - 199)
2016: 48 - 49 (194 - 241)
2014: 45 - 51 (188 - 247)
2012: 49 - 48 (201 - 234)
2010: 45 - 52 (193 - 242)
2008: 53 - 43 (257 - 178)
2006: 52 - 44 (233 - 202)
2004: 47 - 50 (202 - 232)
2002: 45 - 50 (205 - 229)
2000: 47 - 47 (212 - 221)

When I read this I see: pre-2012, the national vote lined up with the results pretty well. After the 2010 census, GOP seem to have gerrymandered about 20-30 seats more than they deserve on average. So with the 2020 census how much worse can they possibly do? If the country continues to vote +5-7% Dem., they're not going to magically take over the house. They only have complete control over a handful of states so they are already limited by how much they can do. And they already completely control most of those seats; most GOP states already control all or all but 1 house seats, so how much room is there for any more gerrymandering potential?

sui generis

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7978 on: May 16, 2021, 08:18:19 PM »
In keeping with Trump's long-established love of stamping his name on everything he controls, we should probably just let him officially rebrand the Republican party as the Trump party. He can replace the red elephant with a big, gold "TRUMP."

Republicans weigh in on Liz Cheney and direction of GOP — CBS News poll

Honestly, I can't understand how the Republican party has gone from trying a decently effective TV personality President (Regan) to desperately hanging on to an unpopular and obviously flawed individual like Trump.  I hope nothing like this happens to the Democrats, but the Republican party needs to figure out how to stop splintering ever since the TEA folks and Rove showed up...  Although they to paint their opposition as 'radicals' (which should be the obvious sign of their own failings, not having a core of their own), it is the conservative factions that are way too far right...  Biden and AOC are perfect foils for BS like Trump and MTG - diligently and competently going about their work as the bluster and flailing look increasingly silly and counterproductive.   

AOC would be within her rights to obtain a restraining order against MTG, who increasingly seems completely unhinged.

Seems to me behavior like that shown by MTG won't do the GOP any long-term favors.  Sure, it gets the Qanon crowd riled up and is red meat for the base, but it simultaneously turns off independent, non-white and younger voters. 

To me, AOC's consistent refusal to engage is the winning hand.  Let MTG act more and more unhinged; let Pelosi put the everything under investigation.

Unfortunately, the GOP doesn't require a majority of voters to win. And probably by pure accident, they have stumbled into tactics *and* policies that are a turn-off for the majority of voters, but red meat for exactly the right (geographically) voters to make sure that they can still win the elections needed to control what they want to control.  We got lucky in November 2020 and just by the skin of our teeth.  It's gonna be a while before their coalition isn't enough numerically to win, so long as they can keep them angry enough to turn out at pretty high levels.  And if they can do that in 2022 and 2024....they can cement minority rule even further as they continue losing numbers.

They've tried this, with mixed results.  Gerrymandering and voter suppression have given the greater representation and a louder microphone than they otherwise would have, but OTOH they lost the house, the senate and WH in the last election, and got clobbered in an otherwise very favorable time period the cycle previous (2018).  Even when they were in control they utterly squandered those opportunities to pass some seriously conservative laws because they were too disorganized to get much done.

Maybe we need to go through a few more cycles before we can made hard conclusions, but in my eyes they have every advantage (both fair and unfair/illegal) yet they aren't doing terribly well.

Why do you say otherwise very favorable?  Traditionally there is a backlash against the incumbent administration so no one should have expected good things for them in 2018.  And while they did lose the House, as almost *always* happens, they gained seats in the Senate and didn't lose much down ballot nationwide, as compared to any prediction in what should have always been an unfavorable, backlash year for Rs.

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7979 on: May 16, 2021, 09:59:33 PM »
In keeping with Trump's long-established love of stamping his name on everything he controls, we should probably just let him officially rebrand the Republican party as the Trump party. He can replace the red elephant with a big, gold "TRUMP."

Republicans weigh in on Liz Cheney and direction of GOP — CBS News poll

Honestly, I can't understand how the Republican party has gone from trying a decently effective TV personality President (Regan) to desperately hanging on to an unpopular and obviously flawed individual like Trump.  I hope nothing like this happens to the Democrats, but the Republican party needs to figure out how to stop splintering ever since the TEA folks and Rove showed up...  Although they to paint their opposition as 'radicals' (which should be the obvious sign of their own failings, not having a core of their own), it is the conservative factions that are way too far right...  Biden and AOC are perfect foils for BS like Trump and MTG - diligently and competently going about their work as the bluster and flailing look increasingly silly and counterproductive.   

AOC would be within her rights to obtain a restraining order against MTG, who increasingly seems completely unhinged.

Seems to me behavior like that shown by MTG won't do the GOP any long-term favors.  Sure, it gets the Qanon crowd riled up and is red meat for the base, but it simultaneously turns off independent, non-white and younger voters. 

To me, AOC's consistent refusal to engage is the winning hand.  Let MTG act more and more unhinged; let Pelosi put the everything under investigation.

Unfortunately, the GOP doesn't require a majority of voters to win. And probably by pure accident, they have stumbled into tactics *and* policies that are a turn-off for the majority of voters, but red meat for exactly the right (geographically) voters to make sure that they can still win the elections needed to control what they want to control.  We got lucky in November 2020 and just by the skin of our teeth.  It's gonna be a while before their coalition isn't enough numerically to win, so long as they can keep them angry enough to turn out at pretty high levels.  And if they can do that in 2022 and 2024....they can cement minority rule even further as they continue losing numbers.

They've tried this, with mixed results.  Gerrymandering and voter suppression have given the greater representation and a louder microphone than they otherwise would have, but OTOH they lost the house, the senate and WH in the last election, and got clobbered in an otherwise very favorable time period the cycle previous (2018).  Even when they were in control they utterly squandered those opportunities to pass some seriously conservative laws because they were too disorganized to get much done.

Maybe we need to go through a few more cycles before we can made hard conclusions, but in my eyes they have every advantage (both fair and unfair/illegal) yet they aren't doing terribly well.

Why do you say otherwise very favorable?  Traditionally there is a backlash against the incumbent administration so no one should have expected good things for them in 2018.  And while they did lose the House, as almost *always* happens, they gained seats in the Senate and didn't lose much down ballot nationwide, as compared to any prediction in what should have always been an unfavorable, backlash year for Rs.

You can look at graphs like in the wiki page here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Divided_government_in_the_United_States

I don't see any proof of a "backlash" theory. As best as I can tell, there's been some whiplash for the past 30-40 years because the country has been so divided. But I personally think that that is more due to the minority rule that the GOP has worked with for the past 40 years more than it being a "backlash" against the current administration. The ability for the GOP to suppress the vote, pour huge amounts of money into certain campaigns, and higher levels of gerrymandering I think are more at play rather than the 5% of voters who switch sides.

The past 30 years has had a single popular election of a GOP president, yet controls the majority of positions on the supreme court. There's absolutely nothing about the GOP that has ever screamed "popular". It's all about the will of the people to fight against it.

sui generis

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7980 on: May 16, 2021, 10:42:16 PM »
There are loads of articles out there about how poorly the incumbent Admin's party does historically during the mid-terms.  Here's one graphic that shows that since 1962, the incumbent party lost seats in the House all but twice and in the Senate 11 out of the 14 times.
 So yeah, you don't have to call it a "backlash" but the Rs were expected to lose seats in the House and the Senate in 2018.  They did much better than average.  The number of seats in the House that the Dems picked up was a little on the high side, but by no means near a record, but the Rs gained enough Senate seats to tie the record for best performance since 1962 of the incumbent party

https://blogs-images.forbes.com/niallmccarthy/files/2018/10/20181009_Midterm_Performance.jpg
« Last Edit: May 16, 2021, 10:51:02 PM by sui generis »

talltexan

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7981 on: May 17, 2021, 06:32:02 AM »
I will admit that I, too, am pessimistic about the 2022 midterms. But there was another recent midterm election (2002) where the WH party gained. At the time, they had a popular President, and we were all recovering from a remarkable national trauma.

I am disciplined enough that I do not read any link with "Trump" in the title apart from this thread, but it seems as though the former President is still very much in the news. It's possible that will help his party, but it's also possible that it will be a dramatic millstone around their necks for doing things like winning control of the House.

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7982 on: May 17, 2021, 10:09:42 AM »
There are loads of articles out there about how poorly the incumbent Admin's party does historically during the mid-terms.  Here's one graphic that shows that since 1962, the incumbent party lost seats in the House all but twice and in the Senate 11 out of the 14 times.
 So yeah, you don't have to call it a "backlash" but the Rs were expected to lose seats in the House and the Senate in 2018.  They did much better than average.  The number of seats in the House that the Dems picked up was a little on the high side, but by no means near a record, but the Rs gained enough Senate seats to tie the record for best performance since 1962 of the incumbent party

https://blogs-images.forbes.com/niallmccarthy/files/2018/10/20181009_Midterm_Performance.jpg

I think this actually goes to bolster my point. 
In 2018 the GOP already had a large advantage via gerrymandering, and had great economic tailwinds and recent corporate tax break, and one of the most favorable Senate maps in recent memory (i believe they were defending just 11 seats, most in solidly red states), plus a president that was willing to go beyond the pale to push his party above the opposition.  Yet they drumming they took in house races was far worse than is typical.  Every advantage, yet they did worse.

Then look at 2020; incumbents typically have an advantage in re-election, and moments of crisis generally boost their approval ratings (the "rally around the flag").  Indeed, we saw that in most democratic countries.  But they lost the WH, and the Senate. 

One can debate how many seats an incumbent party "should" lose the next election cycle, but my broader point is that the GOP has already implemented most of these measures and they still haven't resulted in the kind of lock on power that others have suggested. 

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7983 on: May 17, 2021, 10:55:26 AM »
There are loads of articles out there about how poorly the incumbent Admin's party does historically during the mid-terms.  Here's one graphic that shows that since 1962, the incumbent party lost seats in the House all but twice and in the Senate 11 out of the 14 times.
 So yeah, you don't have to call it a "backlash" but the Rs were expected to lose seats in the House and the Senate in 2018.  They did much better than average.  The number of seats in the House that the Dems picked up was a little on the high side, but by no means near a record, but the Rs gained enough Senate seats to tie the record for best performance since 1962 of the incumbent party

https://blogs-images.forbes.com/niallmccarthy/files/2018/10/20181009_Midterm_Performance.jpg

Out 14 midterms half had net house changes of <15 seats and half had net senate seat changes of <4. So half of the midterms had big changes to at least one chamber, and the other half had almost no change at all. And even then, some of the big changes were less around popular backlash and more around political strategy and demographic changes. (Nothing popular about the senate and changes in any given cycle only represent the will of 1/3 of the states).

If it's a coin flip, then I don't see the backlash being connected to the party of the president in power. (Otherwise we wouldn't see incumbent presidents win nearly as often as they do). I think it has more to do with economic and social pressures, but also just pure dumb luck. If only 100 seats are in play in any given year and a party wins 70/100, then they're ability to gain on that number is limited. (They're now defending 70 swing seats and can only gain on 30 of them). Even if we only ascribe a coin flip to them, they're going to lose seats. Or as it is more commonly explained, the voters in power feel less pressure to go vote and thus the edge seats tend to flip.

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7984 on: May 17, 2021, 12:05:19 PM »
The story on elections is turnout, not swing voters. Voters that are mad turn out. Voters that are happy and busy are more likely to be complacent. Very few voters change their minds based on a careful analysis of the past 2 years of policy for a midterm or presidential election. People who strongly identify as "independent" are statistically even less likely to change their minds. It is all about turnout. This is why the GOP is pushing hard on making it more difficult to vote by mail, etc., and also keeping their base mad with things like the Big Lie. Gerrymandering does a lot to tilt the scales, but ultimately it is bodies in the polling places. In 2010 Dems were pretty complacent and the right was upset about what was going on. They showed up at the polls and won. People who show up to vote in midterms ( and primaries for that matter), tend to be those who are more engaged, and also less likely to be in the complacent center.
« Last Edit: May 17, 2021, 01:11:04 PM by Glenstache »

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7985 on: May 17, 2021, 12:11:35 PM »
I think you have parties reversed as to who was more pissed off with regards to 2018 @Glenstache - Dems picked up 41 house seats that year.

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7986 on: May 17, 2021, 01:11:45 PM »
I think you have parties reversed as to who was more pissed off with regards to 2018 @Glenstache - Dems picked up 41 house seats that year.
You're right. I brain-farted and meant 2010 when the Tea Party faction made gains.

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7987 on: May 17, 2021, 01:14:24 PM »
Ah - 2010. That makes more sense.

FIPurpose

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7988 on: May 17, 2021, 01:51:20 PM »
I think you have parties reversed as to who was more pissed off with regards to 2018 @Glenstache - Dems picked up 41 house seats that year.
You're right. I brain-farted and meant 2010 when the Tea Party faction made gains.

And here's the part that made no sense about that. Obama passed huge middle class tax cuts and big stimulus spending in 2009. The entire mantra of the Tea Party made absolutely no sense. Looking back at it now, it was simply the beginnings of the Trump/QAnon cult mentality more so than a "political" backlash. Multiple people attempted Trumpism in 2012 including Bachmann, Gingrich, and Santorum. But none of them had the full on brazen ability to directly lie and say factually incorrect things and be a complete hypocrite. They were still under the mistaken assumption that their voters cared about consistency and integrity.

Even today, the GOP is hardly about policy. The GOP doesn't have any policy that they represent. It's a complete cult of personality.

sui generis

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7989 on: May 17, 2021, 04:58:06 PM »
There are loads of articles out there about how poorly the incumbent Admin's party does historically during the mid-terms.  Here's one graphic that shows that since 1962, the incumbent party lost seats in the House all but twice and in the Senate 11 out of the 14 times.
 So yeah, you don't have to call it a "backlash" but the Rs were expected to lose seats in the House and the Senate in 2018.  They did much better than average.  The number of seats in the House that the Dems picked up was a little on the high side, but by no means near a record, but the Rs gained enough Senate seats to tie the record for best performance since 1962 of the incumbent party

https://blogs-images.forbes.com/niallmccarthy/files/2018/10/20181009_Midterm_Performance.jpg

I think this actually goes to bolster my point. 
In 2018 the GOP already had a large advantage via gerrymandering, and had great economic tailwinds and recent corporate tax break, and one of the most favorable Senate maps in recent memory (i believe they were defending just 11 seats, most in solidly red states), plus a president that was willing to go beyond the pale to push his party above the opposition.  Yet they drumming they took in house races was far worse than is typical.  Every advantage, yet they did worse.

Then look at 2020; incumbents typically have an advantage in re-election, and moments of crisis generally boost their approval ratings (the "rally around the flag").  Indeed, we saw that in most democratic countries.  But they lost the WH, and the Senate. 

One can debate how many seats an incumbent party "should" lose the next election cycle, but my broader point is that the GOP has already implemented most of these measures and they still haven't resulted in the kind of lock on power that others have suggested.
I still don't think 2018 was an unusually favorable year for them.  For instance, 2012 would have been the best in the House because a fresh gerrymander is the most effective.  By 2018, your 2010-census based gerrymander is "wearing off" as lots of people have moved and the voter composition in a district has changed a lot.  So 2018 was actually one of the least precisely gerrymandered years of the decade.  Only 2020 was, of course, more stale.  2022 will be more precisely and thoroughly gerrymandered, both because it is based off of fresher data and because of course, the Republicans have better tactics that are more widespread now than in 2010 when they implemented REDMAP.  And of course, the state legislatures are implementing new and different measures to suppress votes further, so I think we will look back on 2018 and see that not only was it not quite the backlash year other midterm elections have been, but it was not even as favorable conditions as they are continuing to create for themselves.  And why not?  They are innovative and hard working and *scared* people, so they are very motivated and will not rest on their 2012 or 2018 or 2020 laurels.  They still have a lot of gain they could realize though they will continue to need help from the Dems, independents and others that are opposed to continue shooting themselves in the foot, as they are wont to do.

*to clarify my point about 2020 laurels, since I presume most people think they lost shockingly horribly and it wasn't a good year for them, I will repeat that not onld did they not lose net seats in state legislatures, but actually one state legislature, New Hampshire, flipped back from blue to red.  Down ballot was a blood bath for Dems and all of us who work in this space have been devastated for months about that.  And state legislatures is where the rules are made for elections both on the state (and local) and federal level (unless HR1 passes, which does wrest some significant control, including on gerrymandering, from states). So the 2020 Republican successes in state legislatures is what is setting them up to potentially have such great years (better years than 2018 by a long shot) in 2022 and 2024.
« Last Edit: May 17, 2021, 05:02:28 PM by sui generis »

talltexan

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7990 on: May 18, 2021, 06:36:17 AM »
I share your assessment about down-ballot races and Democrats' results in 2020.

I think it is worth pointing out that they had very little ground game because of COVID (and it was essentially a unilateral disarmament for them).

six-car-habit

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7991 on: May 19, 2021, 02:08:51 AM »
  NY Attorney General's office now calling investigation, into trump organization business activities, a criminal examination as well as a civil matter.

 https://www.npr.org/2021/05/19/998110636/new-york-says-probe-into-trump-organization-now-a-criminal-inquiry

  This may be one of the biggest news story white-collar prosecutions in my lifetime.  Unfortunate that politics will attempt to derail finding the truth, and prosecuting the participants.  Increased IRS funding in the future perhaps ?

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7992 on: May 19, 2021, 11:31:27 AM »
  NY Attorney General's office now calling investigation, into trump organization business activities, a criminal examination as well as a civil matter.

 https://www.npr.org/2021/05/19/998110636/new-york-says-probe-into-trump-organization-now-a-criminal-inquiry

  This may be one of the biggest news story white-collar prosecutions in my lifetime.  Unfortunate that politics will attempt to derail finding the truth, and prosecuting the participants.  Increased IRS funding in the future perhaps ?
Biden is directly calling for increases in funding for IRS audits and enforcement. I hope the follow through happens.

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7993 on: May 20, 2021, 01:32:17 AM »
  NY Attorney General's office now calling investigation, into trump organization business activities, a criminal examination as well as a civil matter.

 https://www.npr.org/2021/05/19/998110636/new-york-says-probe-into-trump-organization-now-a-criminal-inquiry

  This may be one of the biggest news story white-collar prosecutions in my lifetime.  Unfortunate that politics will attempt to derail finding the truth, and prosecuting the participants.  Increased IRS funding in the future perhaps ?
Biden is directly calling for increases in funding for IRS audits and enforcement. I hope the follow through happens.
The real question is: Who will be audited?

It is a frequent occurance that the rich aren't, because they can afford lawyers that drag everything on and the people tasked with the audits might get fired if they lose.
Or if they are too successful, as happened to a squad in Germany. They nearly ended in psychatry (paranoid) for being too successful in finding million-big tax evasions.
If anyone wants to put that big crime story worthy of a Hollywood film into a translator, here is the German WP article: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steuerfahnder-Aff%C3%A4re

talltexan

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7994 on: May 20, 2021, 07:11:36 AM »
I suppose this same reasoning applies to the estate tax as well.

Sure, I think it's crass for government to ask for payment in order to use the rule of law to protect a non-violent transfer of your assets to your children upon your death. But the Federal exemption exceeds $11,000,000. And if you have a stash in the neighborhood of eight figures, you can probably hire an attorney to set up the kind of trust that basically means you will avoid taxes anyway.

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7995 on: May 20, 2021, 09:45:31 AM »
Didn’t our former President (DJT) remark about how not paying taxes means he ‘s “smart” and how “only suckers” pay income taxes?

Gee... now he’s being criminally investigated for tax fraud...

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7996 on: May 21, 2021, 01:49:07 AM »
Didn’t our former President (DJT) remark about how not paying taxes means he ‘s “smart” and how “only suckers” pay income taxes?

Gee... now he’s being criminally investigated for tax fraud...
You are a sucker if you pay taxes - but you are even more a sucker of your get yourself catched "evading" them, gee!

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7997 on: May 21, 2021, 09:12:37 AM »
Trump continues to leverage the federal government to enrich his properties:

Since leaving office on January 20th, the former president charged his own protective detail $396.15 per night to rent a room near him at his Mar-a-lago resort.

I'm guessing this is a long-term play; $145k/year in revenue with a client who is compelled to stay and pay whatever rate they are charged.

talltexan

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7998 on: May 21, 2021, 09:46:22 AM »
That sounds...like not a lot of money.

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Re: Trump outrage of the day
« Reply #7999 on: May 21, 2021, 09:51:59 AM »
That sounds...like not a lot of money.

Agreed. Still irks me though, and seems an abuse of his position. Not sure if the Hatch act ever contemplated post-position self dealing but this seems ethically dubious all the same.