The popular narrative is: Of course he’ll run in 2024 ... and is the favorite to be the GOP nominee.
But... there’s a wide field of 2024 hopefuls, including Cotton, Rubio, Lee, Pompeo and Cruz. Each are shrewd politicians in their own right. I expect a fair bit of backstabbing to go on, much of it behind the scenes, and all of them with plenty of ammo. Unflattering leaks about his presidency, a rush to secure donors and voters, etc. Modest gains in the house in 2020 aside , they are calculating enough to realize the Trump presidency has made the GOP future harder, with GA and AZ now in play, and NC and TX uncomfortably close.
In other words - it’ll be a four year long fight for party control, with Trump being the common threat to each of their ambitions.
I doubt Trump makes it 4 years without a undeniable neurological symptoms at a minimum. He's barely holding it together enough to seem marginally cogent as it is. He be done.
Trump owns the Republican party. He owns its most fervent supporters, he owns the income stream from them, he owns the data information, he has put his supporters in all the positions of power at National and State level. Trump will say he is looking at running in 2024 and use that to raise money and shut out the other candidates for the next couple of years. He will then either run again or annoint either Don Jr or Ivanka in his place.
New York mob boss strategy.
He owns a shockingly large portion of fevernt supporters, yes. I’m less convinced of the rest. Certainly many (most?) of the elected GOP officials are afraid of igniting his ire, but many within the party don’t seem to like him either - at least in part because he attacked them so personally. And like most federal politicians, they are driven at least in part by power, and now Trump has lost his.
Further, they can look at this like anyone else... in four years do they
really want to send the guy who lost the incumbency by 6MM votes as their standard bearer against an incumbent? That sounds like a terrible starting point - imagine if HRC had run again in 2020 (And she actually won the popular vote)...
I’ve no doubt that Trump has plans to run again, and I know he’s got a large and loud base that will be behind him. But I suspect he’ll be undermined at every turn by both the Democrats AND many within the GOP - though the GOP will be more subversive about it. More tell-all accounts will come up. His mad twitter-rages will be met with more backhand comments like “unfortunately you were unable to win re-election, so we are stuck with this”. Slowly they will poison his image and reinforce the idea that Trump is a loser who lost by a record number of votes. GOP voters will have ongoing, cantankerous discussions about whether re-nominating him is a good idea
much as the Dems did about HRC,
Meanwhile, Trump’s own problems will keep coming. He’ll say anything to steal the media cycle, yet this time around he won’t be delivering judges to offset his outrageous behavior. More tell-all bombshell books will come out from his own hand-picked staff seeking to capitalize on their years in the WH (“I barely knew him/her!’). Lawsuits will progress, and he’ll likely lose or settle quite a few. Some of his suffering, high-profile businesses will close - particularly absent his ability to funnel millions in federal dollars their way.Trump Jr will continue to be the entitled jerk who think’s his mission is to ‘own the libs’.
That’s just my thinking. Trump saying he’ll run now doesn’t mean he’ll get to in 4 years - it’s going to be a tough time (deservedly so) for him and his family without the bully pulpit and full weight of the DOJ behind him.