So I understand things can swing a lot on two months, and I have been waiting for the "point of no return" when there just is not enough time for Trump to turn the bullshit wagon around enough to gather enough marginal voters to win and I am starting to think the actions of the last week, RNC convention apart, may tip things there.
I agree wholeheartedly that the base will never be swayed and I am comfortable in the fact that the base is not enough. Trump's margin of victory in several states was so small that he only needs to lose (or Biden needs to gain, whichever way you prefer to look) less than 100,000 voters. I feel he's lost far more than that as white women, college educated voters and blacks who supported him have been peeling off in polling for months. My analysis of this week's actions are pointed at is he going to win any voters. The Sunday announcement of convalescent plasma (or plosma as the pres says), a 100 year old therapy being touted as something new and then oversold on efficacy played poorly. When challenged Dr. Hahn has to backpedal or risk losing whatever credibility as a medical professional he had left and admit there are no facts about how much this will help. Second, the CDC removing testing for those who have come into contact, I believe, will be the nail in the coffin for people on the fence as this plays out over the next few weeks, leaving Trump no time to do anything about it. It has been one of the only consistent points during COVID that the only way to slow the spread is through identification and isolation of spreaders, which can only happen with testing. Instead of having an adult conversation with the country and admitting that we still struggle to have enough testing, Trump advised the CDC to change guidance to make it appear we need less testing when science clearly points to the fact that is wrong. Since the virus does not respond to spin, it will do what it does, and this decreased testing will do what we saw in the spring when we had fewer tests, and cause more infections especially now that schools are starting up. At this point, those states that act responsibly and refuse to bury their head in the sand like Florida and Georgia did earlier only to find, again, the virus does not care what you thing, will be forced to tell kids in a class with a positive tested student to stay home for two weeks because we are no longer allowed to test you. All the disruption and chaos that irritates working parents will come into play and more voters will move away as their daily impact will continue to be negative by the party in power. So this in no way is going to enlarge Trump's voting pool. While I hate the fact that lives are in danger, to use our leaders words "it is what it is" and I cannot change the CDC policy, so more people will get sick and the main thing contributing to Trump losing this election will get worse before November because his administration slowed testing again to March/April levels and history will repeat itself as viruses are pretty predictable that way, and then for those who get sick and do not see the miracle of plasma saving them that promise goes up in smoke too.
tl:dr; Trump keeps taking actions what will cause problems and I feel does nothing to increase those who will vote for him. This is good for those of us who want him out though it comes at a terrible cost.