Trump 2.0

[Glenstache]

Welp, I guess it is time to start the Trump 2.0 thread where we get to track, discuss, and discuss, and discuss all things of the 47th presidency. America elected him and now we get to live with Trump and Vance for the next 4 years in whatever form that takes.

Key questions:
1. How much bluster and Project 2025 will actually materialize as policy, staffing and global stance.
2. How much of Trump's legal liability will evaporate due to court delays to "after 2028" and/or self pardon and/or removal of prosecutors within the DOJ (part of the executive branch)?
3. Will America, in fact, become Great Again?

Buckle up kids, it's going to be a bumpy ride!

[farmecologist]

Personally, I'm really worried about potential ACA ramifications. We plan to FIRE soon, and ACA coverage is a key part of that. 

I feel like our FIRE plans just were just absolutely torched since we are going to need good healthcare due to a preexisting condition in the family ( type 1 diabetes ).

[iris lily]

Personally, I'm really worried about potential ACA ramifications. We plan to FIRE soon, and ACA coverage is a key part of that. 

I feel like our FIRE plans just were just absolutely torched since we are going to need good healthcare due to a preexisting condition in the family ( type 1 diabetes ).

We were eyeing ACA coverage after the 2016 election, being newly retired and on COBRA coverage.  I paid close attention to the bumbling stumblers in Congress during the brief time Republicans were in charge of both houses and honey, they were not able to come together with a plan to trash the ACA.

Trump would have signed off on ANYTHING that signaled a change, no matter how small because he would have spun it as victory.

In the end he had to make an executive action to tweak the ACA so he could claim “Winner!!!”
It didnt make a whole hell of a lot of difference.

With the ACA now fully entrenched into American health care, I doubt there will be changes that are serious.

But that said, hang onto your job provided health insurance for a bit more to see how the wind blows.

[farmecologist]

Personally, I'm really worried about potential ACA ramifications. We plan to FIRE soon, and ACA coverage is a key part of that. 

I feel like our FIRE plans just were just absolutely torched since we are going to need good healthcare due to a preexisting condition in the family ( type 1 diabetes ).

We were eyeing ACA coverage after the 2016 election, being newly retired and on COBRA coverage.  I paid close attention to the bumbling stumblers in Congress during the brief time Republicans were in charge of both houses and honey, they were not able to come together with a plan to trash the ACA.

Trump would have signed off on ANYTHING that signaled a change, no matter how small because he would have spun it as victory.

In the end he had to make an executive action to tweak the ACA so he could claim “Winner!!!”
It didnt make a whole hell of a lot of difference.

With the ACA now fully entrenched into American health care, I doubt there will be changes that are serious.

But that said, hang onto your job provided health insurance for a bit more to see how the wind blows.

Yep, that is the current plan.  I certainly hope it will be a nothing burger, but with his cronies and project 2025, I'm not feeling great about it.

[Glenstache]

Personally, I'm really worried about potential ACA ramifications. We plan to FIRE soon, and ACA coverage is a key part of that. 

I feel like our FIRE plans just were just absolutely torched since we are going to need good healthcare due to a preexisting condition in the family ( type 1 diabetes ).

We were eyeing ACA coverage after the 2016 election, being newly retired and on COBRA coverage.  I paid close attention to the bumbling stumblers in Congress during the brief time Republicans were in charge of both houses and honey, they were not able to come together with a plan to trash the ACA.

Trump would have signed off on ANYTHING that signaled a change, no matter how small because he would have spun it as victory.

In the end he had to make an executive action to tweak the ACA so he could claim “Winner!!!”
It didnt make a whole hell of a lot of difference.

With the ACA now fully entrenched into American health care, I doubt there will be changes that are serious.

But that said, hang onto your job provided health insurance for a bit more to see how the wind blows.

Yep, that is the current plan.  I certainly hope it will be a nothing burger, but with his cronies and project 2025, I'm not feeling great about it.

I have been on an ACA plan for the last 2 years and hit the FIRE button in June. I'm generally healthy, but had melanoma, so have a potentially expensive pre-existing condition. Ugh.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

Republicans will have less than 60 Senators, which is not enough to get past the filibuster.  They need support from Democrats.  The House of Representatives hasn't been decided yet.

Trump said he will put 60% tariffs on China, and 10% tariffs on the rest of the world.  As President, he has that authority without getting permission from Congress.  He has also mentioned various changes he wants, and that he views tariffs as a negotiating tactic.  The length of time tariffs will be in place is unknown, and matters a lot.  There is a risk of inflation and recession if this turns into a trade war.

[Tigerpine]

In the short term, I'm most curious about his ongoing legal issues.  Will Trump self-pardon?  Will he pardon preemptively?  How will the Supreme Court react?

Longer term, what will happen four years hence?  Will he leave office quietly when his term is up?

[Raenia]

Things I'm most worried about, in no particular order:
 - Safety of LGBTQ+ folks
 - National abortion ban
 - Crackdown on immigration driving up food prices
 - Tariffs driving up all prices
 - Loss of independence of Fed
 - Degradation of free and fair elections for next time
 - Ukraine

At this point, money is freedom - time to double down on saving, minimize expenses, keep options open. We'll see what happens.

[iris lily]

Chappelle and Rock hit it out of the park on SNL…Deja Vu.

It you don’t want to watch the entire 5 minute  piece, fast forward to start at 4:20.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SHG0ezLiVGc&pp=ygUgU25sIGVsZWN0aW9uIG5pZ2h0IHNob3J0IHZlcnNpb24%3D

[PeteD01]

In the short term, I'm most curious about his ongoing legal issues.  Will Trump self-pardon?  Will he pardon preemptively?  How will the Supreme Court react?

Longer term, what will happen four years hence?  Will he leave office quietly when his term is up?

There is a relatively strong suspicion that Trump exhibits disinhibition beyond what is expected from his personality disorder and it appears to be progressive.

He would need to undergo neuropsychiatric testing and brain imaging to rule out an organic brain syndrome or to confirm a condition like behavioral variant frontotemporal dementia (he is a bit older than typical but it does happen at his age) or another frontotemporal disorder.

I want to make it clear that I'm not making a diagnosis here but this concern is not easily dismissed given the available evidence and his family history.

If he indeed has FTD, then we are in for a wild ride.

What Are Frontotemporal Disorders? Causes, Symptoms, and Treatment

Behavioral variant frontotemporal dementia
The most common FTD, bvFTD, involves changes in personality, behavior, and judgment. People with this disorder may have problems with cognition, but their memory may stay relatively intact. Symptoms can include:

Problems planning and sequencing (thinking through which steps come first, second, and so on)
Difficulty prioritizing tasks or activities
Repeating the same activity or saying the same word over and over
Acting impulsively or saying or doing inappropriate things without considering how others perceive the behavior
Becoming disinterested in family or activities they used to care about
Over time, language and/or movement problems may occur, and the person living with bvFTD will need more care and supervision.

https://www.nia.nih.gov/health/frontotemporal-disorders/what-are-frontotemporal-disorders-causes-symptoms-and-treatment#:~:text=Many%20possible%20symptoms%20can%20result,45%20to%2064%20years%20old.

[dividendman]

I am thinking back to Trumps first term and there are some things I didn't hate about it:

Some simplification of the tax code (this was mostly Paul Ryan, but still), higher standard deduction.
Diplomatic engagement with North Korea (although first it was calling names and threats).
I don't mind Justice Gorsuch as much as some of the others; in particular his defense of due process and hatred of law enforcement overreach and defense of title VII.
General aversion to war/international conflict.

So more stuff like that could be ok.

Maybe we'll be pleasantly surprised and Republicans will, for once, rein in the deficit and reduce the scope of the federal government and maybe even the presidency as Trump is on his way out... but I'm much less hopeful about that.

[GuitarStv]

The US is Canada's biggest trading partner (and Canada is the US's biggest trading partner - neat, I never knew that!).  Trump has previously unilaterally decided to impose trade restrictions and tariffs on things seemingly at random.  Project 2025 is a plan to significantly increase tariffs - so I fully expect significant damage to both the Canadian and US economies when these come into effect.  I also expect this to lead to a recession here in Canada.  The damage to world wide trade could be pretty far reaching too, and doesn't make me feel happy about being really, really close to ER.

[iris lily]

In the short term, I'm most curious about his ongoing legal issues.  Will Trump self-pardon?  Will he pardon preemptively?  How will the Supreme Court react?

Longer term, what will happen four years hence?  Will he leave office quietly when his term is up?

There is a relatively strong suspicion that Trump exhibits disinhibition beyond what is expected from his personality disorder and it appears to be progressive.

He would need to undergo neuropsychiatric testing and brain imaging to rule out an organic brain syndrome or to confirm a condition like behavioral variant frontotemporal dementia (he is a bit older than typical but it does happen at his age) or another frontotemporal disorder.

I want to make it clear that I'm not making a diagnosis here but this concern is not easily dismissed given the available evidence and his family history.

If he indeed has FTD, then we are in for a wild ride.

What Are Frontotemporal Disorders? Causes, Symptoms, and Treatment

Behavioral variant frontotemporal dementia
The most common FTD, bvFTD, involves changes in personality, behavior, and judgment. People with this disorder may have problems with cognition, but their memory may stay relatively intact. Symptoms can include:

Problems planning and sequencing (thinking through which steps come first, second, and so on)
Difficulty prioritizing tasks or activities
Repeating the same activity or saying the same word over and over
Acting impulsively or saying or doing inappropriate things without considering how others perceive the behavior
Becoming disinterested in family or activities they used to care about
Over time, language and/or movement problems may occur, and the person living with bvFTD will need more care and supervision.

https://www.nia.nih.gov/health/frontotemporal-disorders/what-are-frontotemporal-disorders-causes-symptoms-and-treatment#:~:text=Many%20possible%20symptoms%20can%20result,45%20to%2064%20years%20old.

I think it is wonderful that we can now openly challenge the brain function of the President (oops, incoming President.)

That wasn’t much allowed prior to July 13, and since Gramps in the
White House still has control of the nuclear button, I don’t know why we can’t demand cognitive test results for THAT guy.

But sure, lame duck and all that…sing it people. Biden’s inability to let go of his office and allow a younger person to step into the limelight is one of the main reasons the Democratic Party lost this election. See, I was ALMOST ready  to vote for Biden simply to keep Trump out of the
White House until the depth of Biden’s  impairment was revealed in the debate.

I voted 3rd party, being unable to vote for the party that propped up old Joe long past his expiry date. But since I was in a red state anyway, I knew it didn’t  matter. If in a swing state I would have had a harder time casting my vote.

[PeteD01]

In the short term, I'm most curious about his ongoing legal issues.  Will Trump self-pardon?  Will he pardon preemptively?  How will the Supreme Court react?

Longer term, what will happen four years hence?  Will he leave office quietly when his term is up?

There is a relatively strong suspicion that Trump exhibits disinhibition beyond what is expected from his personality disorder and it appears to be progressive.

He would need to undergo neuropsychiatric testing and brain imaging to rule out an organic brain syndrome or to confirm a condition like behavioral variant frontotemporal dementia (he is a bit older than typical but it does happen at his age) or another frontotemporal disorder.

I want to make it clear that I'm not making a diagnosis here but this concern is not easily dismissed given the available evidence and his family history.

If he indeed has FTD, then we are in for a wild ride.

What Are Frontotemporal Disorders? Causes, Symptoms, and Treatment

Behavioral variant frontotemporal dementia
The most common FTD, bvFTD, involves changes in personality, behavior, and judgment. People with this disorder may have problems with cognition, but their memory may stay relatively intact. Symptoms can include:

Problems planning and sequencing (thinking through which steps come first, second, and so on)
Difficulty prioritizing tasks or activities
Repeating the same activity or saying the same word over and over
Acting impulsively or saying or doing inappropriate things without considering how others perceive the behavior
Becoming disinterested in family or activities they used to care about
Over time, language and/or movement problems may occur, and the person living with bvFTD will need more care and supervision.

https://www.nia.nih.gov/health/frontotemporal-disorders/what-are-frontotemporal-disorders-causes-symptoms-and-treatment#:~:text=Many%20possible%20symptoms%20can%20result,45%20to%2064%20years%20old.

I think it is wonderful that we can now openly challenge the brain function of the President (oops, incoming President.)

That wasn’t much allowed prior to July 13, and since Gramps in the
White House still has control of the nuclear button, I don’t know why we can’t demand cognitive test results for THAT guy.

But sure, lame duck and all that…sing it people. Biden’s inability to let go of his office and allow a younger person to step into the limelight is one of the main reasons the Democratic Party lost this election. See, I was ALMOST ready  to vote for Biden simply to keep Trump out of the
White House until the depth of Biden’s  impairment was revealed in the debate.

I voted 3rd party, being unable to vote for the party that propped up old Joe long past his expiry date. But since I was in a red state anyway, I knew it didn’t  matter. If in a swing state I would have had a harder time casting my vote.

It's different with Biden.

While he clearly has aged, appears somewhat frail, may have some mild memory impairment, I have not seen any red flags that would require formal neuropsychiatric testing.

I did think he had some gait difficulty and that should prompt an evaluation for Parkinson's, which he apparently had and which did not reveal the disease.

The gait abnormalities together with the history of at least one fall resulting in injury indicate frailty but not the presence of of a particular neurodegenerative disease once Parkinson's and other movement disorders have been ruled out.

Given all that, Biden has aged to the point that he would likely not being able to finish a second term due to age related functional decline.

Neuropsychiatric evaluation and neuroimaging are not indicated as the diagnosis is a straightforward clinical one.

Trump has behavioral abnormalities that indicate loss of executive function, particularly impulsivity and disinhibition; these behavioral abnormalities overlap as they are seen in psychopathy as well as in behavioral variant frontotemporal disorders.
This diagnostic uncertainty is an indication for advanced testing whereas age related functional decline does not require such testing.

[m8547]

In the short term, I'm most curious about his ongoing legal issues.  Will Trump self-pardon?  Will he pardon preemptively?  How will the Supreme Court react?

Longer term, what will happen four years hence?  Will he leave office quietly when his term is up?

There is a relatively strong suspicion that Trump exhibits disinhibition beyond what is expected from his personality disorder and it appears to be progressive.

He would need to undergo neuropsychiatric testing and brain imaging to rule out an organic brain syndrome or to confirm a condition like behavioral variant frontotemporal dementia (he is a bit older than typical but it does happen at his age) or another frontotemporal disorder.

I want to make it clear that I'm not making a diagnosis here but this concern is not easily dismissed given the available evidence and his family history.

If he indeed has FTD, then we are in for a wild ride.

What Are Frontotemporal Disorders? Causes, Symptoms, and Treatment

Behavioral variant frontotemporal dementia
The most common FTD, bvFTD, involves changes in personality, behavior, and judgment. People with this disorder may have problems with cognition, but their memory may stay relatively intact. Symptoms can include:

Problems planning and sequencing (thinking through which steps come first, second, and so on)
Difficulty prioritizing tasks or activities
Repeating the same activity or saying the same word over and over
Acting impulsively or saying or doing inappropriate things without considering how others perceive the behavior
Becoming disinterested in family or activities they used to care about
Over time, language and/or movement problems may occur, and the person living with bvFTD will need more care and supervision.

https://www.nia.nih.gov/health/frontotemporal-disorders/what-are-frontotemporal-disorders-causes-symptoms-and-treatment#:~:text=Many%20possible%20symptoms%20can%20result,45%20to%2064%20years%20old.

I think it is wonderful that we can now openly challenge the brain function of the President (oops, incoming President.)

That wasn’t much allowed prior to July 13, and since Gramps in the
White House still has control of the nuclear button, I don’t know why we can’t demand cognitive test results for THAT guy.

But sure, lame duck and all that…sing it people. Biden’s inability to let go of his office and allow a younger person to step into the limelight is one of the main reasons the Democratic Party lost this election. See, I was ALMOST ready  to vote for Biden simply to keep Trump out of the
White House until the depth of Biden’s  impairment was revealed in the debate.

I voted 3rd party, being unable to vote for the party that propped up old Joe long past his expiry date. But since I was in a red state anyway, I knew it didn’t  matter. If in a swing state I would have had a harder time casting my vote.

The difference is Biden surrounds himself with reasonable people. (Probably some of those people pressured him to step down.) Trump, on the other hand, does not. And if he doesn't like what someone is telling him, he'll replace them.

[SmashYourSmartPhone]

- National abortion ban

It would appear that ship has sailed, and that the question is now up to the states, as it was intended to be.  Unfortunately, a full ban is not popular even among Republican voters.

- Crackdown on immigration driving up food prices

A country or nation that cannot control its borders is not a meaningful distinction.  Many, on both sides of the political divide, support immigration - just in a controlled, known, vetted manner, not "wide open borders, anyone and everyone welcome" which is what we have, effectively, had.  That Harris spent the past 4 years supposedly being over that and having done nothing about it did not improve her performance in the election.  I expect this is a major part of what drove rising Trump support among Hispanic voters. 

- Tariffs driving up all prices

What is better?  Cheap prices, with goods bought from an enemy, or bringing manufacturing and production back onshore?  It ought be an open question, though of course Biden Tariffs Good, Trump Tariffs Bad, even when they are the same.

More onshore skilled labor is not a bad thing.  Relying on a nation that actively works against our interests, but, hey, goods are cheap, is a bad thing.

- Loss of independence of Fed

Nonsense.  It has not been "independent" in decades.

- Degradation of free and fair elections for next time

As opposed to the 2020 debacle, still being hashed out in certain circles?  Citizens, voting in person, with paper ballots, is what we ought be doing.  Don't put computers into something so important as elections.  The things cannot be trusted in the slightest for things so important.

- Ukraine

It's darkly humorous how the Democrats have turned into the Party of Endless War in Someone Else's Country.  A negotiated settlement in Ukraine would end the slaughter on both sides, and fundamentally, I think Trump will be better at avoiding WWIII than Harris would have been.  International politics and compromise is not the art of "Do what I say, or else," and too many seem to forget that.

Keeping what little powder we have dry for Taiwan seems wise at this point.  Our primary weapons of force projection, carrier fleets, are being driven further and further out into the middle of the ocean by drones and swarming missile threats.  It would be wise for some of our leaders to recall this point.

I'm not particularly worried about Trump's second term.

[Log]

1) I think the Chinese Finger Trap of Trump is that when the #resistance reacts against him and goes nuts over “the isms,” it just makes normal people hate us condescending snobby coastal elites even more. The best solution is to not react to the culture war BS and keep focusing on solving material problems. (Namely, if you ask me, building more housing.)

2) I think some of the closest-to-accurate takes on the election are focusing on the class realignment and just how much Dems have alienated “working class” people of all races, and men and women alike. But the key to getting the right takeaway from that analysis is to pick apart the two halves of “socio-economic” status. Dems have alienated low social status people more than low economic status people. Broke college-educated bohemians are still blue. But materially well off people without college degrees are red. “The opposite of poverty is dignity,” and all that. We need to extend dignity and respect to our countrymen, even when they vote in a way we think is reprehensible. Because it is the lack of dignity that has made them hate us so much.

3) Trump has revealed the greatest weakness of democracy - it's soft spot for populist demagogues. Ideally, the parties would be strong enough to be a bulwark against candidates like Trump, but since the parties became weaker a few decades ago, there were no checks in place for establishment Republicans to keep him away from the nomination. I don't know how to go about bringing the Republican party back from the brink if they continue to alienate the kinds of primary voters who would rein these impulses in. Knowing that I'll be able to tolerate basically whoever the Dems put up, it almost makes me want to vote in Republican primaries to try to nudge the party back towards sanity. But it would be a massive collective action problem to get a bunch of Democrats to register as Republican. Easier though than trying to get people to move states en masse to flip the electoral college, which I've mused about before...

[Raenia]

And this is why I hesitated over hitting post. Clearly made the wrong choice, don't know what I was thinking.

[bacchi]

And this is why I hesitated over hitting post. Clearly made the wrong choice, don't know what I was thinking.

Ignore the apologists and the (snicker) 2020 election deniers.

[ATtiny85]

Should probably read through some of the 2016 election threads and see how this group does with its predictions. Or just copy and paste some of the better ones to save time.

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/what-are-the-realistic-impacts-of-a-trump-presidency/

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/contingency-planning-for-a-trump-presidency/

[iris lily]

Should probably read through some of the 2016 election threads and see how this group does with its predictions. Or just copy and paste some of the better ones to save time.

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/what-are-the-realistic-impacts-of-a-trump-presidency/

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/contingency-planning-for-a-trump-presidency/

I guess they will all have to move to Canada…again.

Bummer.

[LennStar]

My thoughts and prayers to America.

[SmashYourSmartPhone]

Ignore the apologists and the (snicker) 2020 election deniers.

I've no particular problems with the 2020 results, just pointing out that some are still not convinced.  Not my fight.

I have been hearing, literally my entire adult life since I started paying any attention to politics, every single election, about how "if the wrong person wins, this will be the last election in America."  For decades now.  You'll excuse my skepticism about it.

[dandarc]

Ignore the apologists and the (snicker) 2020 election deniers.

I've no particular problems with the 2020 results, just pointing out that some are still not convinced.  Not my fight.

I have been hearing, literally my entire adult life since I started paying any attention to politics, every single election, about how "if the wrong person wins, this will be the last election in America."  For decades now.  You'll excuse my skepticism about it.

How many times was that accompanied by a violent attempt to make good on that led by the sitting president though?

[reeshau]

For those talking about Musk's impact and a balanced budget target:  they are starting from a $7.75T hole, promised to the voters this year.  That's twice Harris' promises.

Hopefully Elon could make a dent in that without gutting environmental and labor protections, but you can't fulfill all those promises together.  Somebody will be disappointed--not surprisingly.  What is surprising is the scope of them all.

https://www.crfb.org/papers/fiscal-impact-harris-and-trump-campaign-plans

[Kris]

Ignore the apologists and the (snicker) 2020 election deniers.

I've no particular problems with the 2020 results, just pointing out that some are still not convinced.  Not my fight.

I have been hearing, literally my entire adult life since I started paying any attention to politics, every single election, about how "if the wrong person wins, this will be the last election in America."  For decades now.  You'll excuse my skepticism about it.

How many times was that accompanied by a violent attempt to make good on that led by the sitting president though?

Followed by a Supreme Court ruling that anything a president does while in office is legal. And then the reelection of the president who encouraged that violent coup attempt.

[LennStar]

Ignore the apologists and the (snicker) 2020 election deniers.

I've no particular problems with the 2020 results, just pointing out that some are still not convinced.  Not my fight.

I have been hearing, literally my entire adult life since I started paying any attention to politics, every single election, about how "if the wrong person wins, this will be the last election in America."  For decades now.  You'll excuse my skepticism about it.

How many times was that accompanied by a violent attempt to make good on that led by the sitting president though?

Followed by a Supreme Court ruling that anything a president does while in office is legal. And then the reelection of the president who encouraged that violent coup attempt.

With a plan that was literally written by people who want to destroy America's economy so they can rebuild it to siphon more money from poor to rich. And also every civil structure that could oppose billionaire powers.

[use2betrix]

Personally, I'm really worried about potential ACA ramifications. We plan to FIRE soon, and ACA coverage is a key part of that. 

I feel like our FIRE plans just were just absolutely torched since we are going to need good healthcare due to a preexisting condition in the family ( type 1 diabetes ).

We were eyeing ACA coverage after the 2016 election, being newly retired and on COBRA coverage.  I paid close attention to the bumbling stumblers in Congress during the brief time Republicans were in charge of both houses and honey, they were not able to come together with a plan to trash the ACA.

Trump would have signed off on ANYTHING that signaled a change, no matter how small because he would have spun it as victory.

In the end he had to make an executive action to tweak the ACA so he could claim “Winner!!!”
It didnt make a whole hell of a lot of difference.

With the ACA now fully entrenched into American health care, I doubt there will be changes that are serious.

But that said, hang onto your job provided health insurance for a bit more to see how the wind blows.

Thus far at least, the ACA is a reasonable example of how change SHOULD be enforced and tested and remained through future presidencies.

In comparison to Trump saying he was going to fix the immigration problem.. He said he was going to fix it during his last presidency, which, in my opinion, if it was fixed with changes PROPERLY, it would not still be a topic of concern…

[dandarc]

Personally, I'm really worried about potential ACA ramifications. We plan to FIRE soon, and ACA coverage is a key part of that. 

I feel like our FIRE plans just were just absolutely torched since we are going to need good healthcare due to a preexisting condition in the family ( type 1 diabetes ).

We were eyeing ACA coverage after the 2016 election, being newly retired and on COBRA coverage.  I paid close attention to the bumbling stumblers in Congress during the brief time Republicans were in charge of both houses and honey, they were not able to come together with a plan to trash the ACA.

Trump would have signed off on ANYTHING that signaled a change, no matter how small because he would have spun it as victory.

In the end he had to make an executive action to tweak the ACA so he could claim “Winner!!!”
It didnt make a whole hell of a lot of difference.

With the ACA now fully entrenched into American health care, I doubt there will be changes that are serious.

But that said, hang onto your job provided health insurance for a bit more to see how the wind blows.

Thus far at least, the ACA is a reasonable example of how change SHOULD be enforced and tested and remained through future presidencies.

In comparison to Trump saying he was going to fix the immigration problem.. He said he was going to fix it during his last presidency, which, in my opinion, if it was fixed with changes PROPERLY, it would not still be a topic of concern…

And Trump himself blocked that change on immigration earlier this years. There's literally no policy about anything that the Republicans actually believe in - and they certainly don't have a better policy on anything than Democrats. But you have to pay attention and get out of the right-wing propaganda bubble to have a chance and understanding that.

[m8547]

It seems like the right wing may be split on deregulation vs protectionism. They want both and they will say whatever sounds best at the time. Is it even possible to have both? Seems like tariffs, for example, are bad for companies that want less regulation and lower taxes. And they are promising higher wages for American workers, but that seems like that goes against companies wanting to have the cheapest possible inputs to their business (money and goods and labor). And they promise lower inflation, but won't higher wages lead to higher prices? They want to shrink the government, but grow the economy. The two are pretty intertwined these days. Laying off half the government bureaucrats, as has been suggested, seems like it would cause a huge recession with all those people out of work.

Maybe those contradictions are fundamental to our society right now. The current government seems to have done a good job of finding balance, and a lot of people are unhappy. The right promises everything, but it remains to be seen if they can deliver on anything. Maybe they will end up fighting among themselves and get little done. Or maybe they will try to do everything and we'll have all the consequences.

[Glenstache]

This summarizes my personal state of the Trump 2.0 today. Answers and the like can start tomorrow or thereafter.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cE4lpSFNFUE

[Travis]

Welp, I guess it is time to start the Trump 2.0 thread where we get to track, discuss, and discuss, and discuss all things of the 47th presidency. America elected him and now we get to live with Trump and Vance for the next 4 years in whatever form that takes.

Key questions:
1. How much bluster and Project 2025 will actually materialize as policy, staffing and global stance.
2. How much of Trump's legal liability will evaporate due to court delays to "after 2028" and/or self pardon and/or removal of prosecutors within the DOJ (part of the executive branch)?
3. Will America, in fact, become Great Again?

Buckle up kids, it's going to be a bumpy ride!

1. Whatever from P2025 actually ends up on Trump's to-do list would need to be divided up into EOs, cabinet-level decisions, and legislation. For the first two, the sky's the limit, especially if it's just changes to policy. For the latter, it depends on the final count in the House. The GOP majority may be so slim that the next two years look just like the last year under Johnson - not a lot got done.  If Musk is allowed to go hog-wild on deleting whole pieces of the federal government like Trump and Musk have insinuated, a lot of that will have to translate into decisions made inside a passable federal budget. I'm not a federal labor law expert, but I don't think a political appointee can just say "you're fired" to random lists of GS employees. We don't even have a budget for FY25 yet. An Elon-driven budget wouldn't really be seen until this time next year at the earliest.  The annual staring contests that result in Continuing Resolutions or government shutdowns may limit those cuts.  Some P2025 desires might even be opposed by GOP members if it'll have significant effects on their next election.  They talk about not liking the ACA, but even Trump admitted during the debate he doesn't have a replacement system in mind.

2. His legal problems are over. Full stop. Garland is already talking about closing down the investigations and scheduled court dates before the end of the year. The NY judge isn't going to give him a sentence after already delaying twice and him winning the election. If Georgia tries to move forward with their case, he'll have the DoJ fight it in front of SCOTUS the entire term.

3. There are goods and raw materials produced overseas that would go up in price quite a bit that will eat into paychecks, cost jobs, and make domestically-produced goods more expensive should tariffs happen. It happened last time. You can't put a 50% increase on Chinese wood and steel overnight and expect domestic suppliers to just pick up the slack. That takes months or years. Even Musk stated he'd need time to prepare for tariffs on the parts he imports from China for his cars made in N.A. There will be tariffs right back at us. We export a lot of things, especially food. A trade war benefits nobody in the short to medium term.

[Fireball]

If they kill the ACA, they are gonna suffer hard in the midterms.

Not trying to be snide in anyway, but we heard similar predictions when Roe vs Wade was tossed. Yet, here we sit on the cusp of a Republican supermajority. Dems better start learning what truly motivates voter behavior. Fast.

[GuitarStv]

We export a lot of things, especially food. A trade war benefits nobody in the short to medium term.

Or long term!

[dandarc]

If they kill the ACA, they are gonna suffer hard in the midterms.

Not trying to be snide in anyway, but we heard similar predictions when Roe vs Wade was tossed. Yet, here we sit on the cusp of a Republican supermajority. Dems better start learning what truly motivates voter behavior. Fast.

They did suffer in the midterms. I also doubt ACA going away will hurt republicans. Because policy just does not matter in the big picture for them - no matter how many people they harm.

[Kris]

If they kill the ACA, they are gonna suffer hard in the midterms.

Not trying to be snide in anyway, but we heard similar predictions when Roe vs Wade was tossed. Yet, here we sit on the cusp of a Republican supermajority. Dems better start learning what truly motivates voter behavior. Fast.

They did suffer in the midterms. I also doubt ACA going away will hurt republicans. Because policy just does not matter in the big picture for them - no matter how many people they harm.

Yeah, what mostly seems to motivate the behavior of right-leaning voters is grievance and phobias.

I don’t know what Dems do about that.

[dandarc]

If they kill the ACA, they are gonna suffer hard in the midterms.

Not trying to be snide in anyway, but we heard similar predictions when Roe vs Wade was tossed. Yet, here we sit on the cusp of a Republican supermajority. Dems better start learning what truly motivates voter behavior. Fast.

They did suffer in the midterms. I also doubt ACA going away will hurt republicans. Because policy just does not matter in the big picture for them - no matter how many people they harm.

Yeah, what mostly seems to motivate the behavior of right-leaning voters is grievance and phobias.

I don’t know what Dems do about that.

Yeah - you just cannot lean into bigotry the way the right does and keep anyone from the base. Plus if that's what's needed to win I'd rather lose. Guess all you can really do is low-key stuff like nominating white guys. And harping on policy successes but that doesn't seem to help much.

[SuperNintendo Chalmers]

If they kill the ACA, they are gonna suffer hard in the midterms.

Not trying to be snide in anyway, but we heard similar predictions when Roe vs Wade was tossed. Yet, here we sit on the cusp of a Republican supermajority. Dems better start learning what truly motivates voter behavior. Fast.

They did suffer in the midterms. I also doubt ACA going away will hurt republicans. Because policy just does not matter in the big picture for them - no matter how many people they harm.

Yeah, what mostly seems to motivate the behavior of right-leaning voters is grievance and phobias.

I don’t know what Dems do about that.

Yeah - you just cannot lean into bigotry the way the right does and keep anyone from the base. Plus if that's what's needed to win I'd rather lose. Guess all you can really do is low-key stuff like nominating white guys. And harping on policy successes but that doesn't seem to help much.

Yeah, I used to think about it somewhat in terms of "market forces," where if they hurt enough of their supporters (e.g., by repealing ACA), political tides will shift naturally the other way.  But they have such control of narrative that any bad effects will easily be dismissed as "left over effects of disastrous Bidenomics" or something like that.  Which will fuel more anger towards Dems and further grow R's power.  So I am very concerned about ACA going away.  I'm not seeing any limits to what they can do this time around. 

[dandarc]

ACA is a concern here as well (rich white folks in our household - my wife and I will be fine regardless of what happens), but I recall reading somewhere a few years back that more than a few folks who were adamantly anti-Obamacare now love their ACA plans now that they actually have them. Not that the Republican politicians will necessarily care, but they'll be directly harming their base if they do make it significantly worse.

I mean, single-payer should be the goal like the rest of the developed world, but ACA is actually a decent step in that direction - employer-paid health insurance was never a great idea as being the main way for most people, and ACA makes it simpler to get similar insurance regardless of your employer. Also actually allows small employers that might be concerned for their employees health to better compensate their employees while simultaneously saving money - because the federal government is in a much better position to subsidize this major expense than your typical very-small to small operation.

ETA: The main downside is it is too complex for a lot of people to understand well - particularly those in states that did not expand medicaid there are some significant perils at low incomes. But a large-enough chunk of those same people vote red and need to be dragged kicking and screaming in a lot of ways into things like this. Which is a shame.

[FINate]

The blame game is now well underway. Of all the narratives I'm hearing on the left, blaming voters has to be the most self-destructive. This reveals an ideological rigidity that's not good for Dems going forward.

The NYT "needle map" is a great visual representation of what transpired on Tuesday: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/06/us/politics/presidential-election-2024-red-shift.html

Voters across the US shifted to Trump, which included an increase in registered Republicans who now outnumber Democrats.

Trump had significant gains across most demographics, including surprising inroads with Latinos, Black men, and the young and old. And the right made significant gains elsewhere. It was truly a red wave.

I'm not here to argue specific changes, which I expect will be hashed out over the coming weeks. But blaming voters is thick with irony given the left's recent rhetoric around being the defenders of democracy. 

[dandarc]

The blame game is now well underway. Of all the narratives I'm hearing on the left, blaming voters has to be the most self-destructive. This reveals an ideological rigidity that's not good for Dems going forward.

The NYT "needle map" is a great visual representation of what transpired on Tuesday: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/06/us/politics/presidential-election-2024-red-shift.html

Voters across the US shifted to Trump, which included an increase in registered Republicans who now outnumber Democrats.

Trump had significant gains across most demographics, including surprising inroads with Latinos, Black men, and the young and old. And the right made significant gains elsewhere. It was truly a red wave.

I'm not here to argue specific changes, which I expect will be hashed out over the coming weeks. But blaming voters is thick with irony given the left's recent rhetoric around being the defenders of democracy.

You responding to something specific with this?

[Kris]

I heard someone on one of my favorite podcasts express that the “big tent” of the Democratic party has created some tensions that can’t easily be solved. When your tent tries to include both labor and the management that is fighting against them, you’re gonna have a bad time.

On another note, I’d add that most blue collar laborers aren’t gonna want to get in the same tent with LGBTQIA. Which is a problem that the right exploits very successfully with their hate and fear mongering campaigns.

[Fireball]

If they kill the ACA, they are gonna suffer hard in the midterms.

Not trying to be snide in anyway, but we heard similar predictions when Roe vs Wade was tossed. Yet, here we sit on the cusp of a Republican supermajority. Dems better start learning what truly motivates voter behavior. Fast.

They did suffer in the midterms. I also doubt ACA going away will hurt republicans. Because policy just does not matter in the big picture for them - no matter how many people they harm.

Well, the GOP lost the Senate, but won the House during the 2022 midterms. The GOP still tanked most of the Biden agenda so not much pain there really. You hit the nail on the head though. Policy isn't what moves the needle.

[dividendman]

Somehow I am optimistic this won't be a complete disaster... Not sure why. I just feel like the Republicans won't be able to do much except tax cuts even with all branches of government.

[oldtoyota]

Chappelle and Rock hit it out of the park on SNL…Deja Vu.

It you don’t want to watch the entire 5 minute  piece, fast forward to start at 4:20.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SHG0ezLiVGc&pp=ygUgU25sIGVsZWN0aW9uIG5pZ2h0IHNob3J0IHZlcnNpb24%3D

That was excellent. Thanks!

[MasterStache]

Somehow I am optimistic this won't be a complete disaster... Not sure why. I just feel like the Republicans won't be able to do much except tax cuts even with all branches of government.

This is my sentiment as well. Trump's first two years were mostly bleh. Passed some tax cuts. Didn't really budge the needle much on anything else. Yeah he passed some tariffs and then we promptly saw a decline in manufacturing jobs followed by bailouts of farmers. But nothing real groundbreaking. The R's controlled both chambers and there were just too many representatives trying to get their hands in the cookie jar. No Infrastructure, no great healthcare plan, etc.

I don't see this going any differently. I've already seen rumblings of those in Trump's inner circle not happy about the possible role of RFK Jr. What's going to happen when Musk wants his stake? Trump got what he wanted, to make his court cases go away. I think he'll go back to golfing and toilet rage tweeting.

[dandarc]

Somehow I am optimistic this won't be a complete disaster... Not sure why. I just feel like the Republicans won't be able to do much except tax cuts even with all branches of government.

Only way to be. Also many people have survived much worse than this in the 400+ years US has been a thing.

Do weep for the hate being directed at so many people, and I do think whatever they get done is likely to be damaging at best, but yeah. We'll muddle through.

[Glenstache]

Somehow I am optimistic this won't be a complete disaster... Not sure why. I just feel like the Republicans won't be able to do much except tax cuts even with all branches of government.

Only way to be. Also many people have survived much worse than this in the 400+ years US has been a thing.

Do weep for the hate being directed at so many people, and I do think whatever they get done is likely to be damaging at best, but yeah. We'll muddle through.

250 Years at the outside. And while we have survived thus far, there has been a lot of awfulness that I'd rather not repeat. And much like the markets, past performance is not proof of future gains.

[shuffler]

But blaming voters is thick with irony given the left's recent rhetoric around being the defenders of democracy.

No irony detected.

It's entirely congruous to respect and defend democracy (Harris's concession, no false claims of voter fraud, no alternate-elector schemes, etc. -- all things that Trump/Republicans failed to do and worked against), while *also* lamenting the values and decisions of other people who are in that democracy with you.

Rather, I'd say that the Democrat's post-election actions supporting a peaceful transfer of power *despite* their distaste for MAGA (the leader, the party, the people, etc.) only serve to *highlight* their commitment to and defense of democracy.  Especially when viewed in contrast with the GOP's failure to do the same in their many opportunities.

[dandarc]

Somehow I am optimistic this won't be a complete disaster... Not sure why. I just feel like the Republicans won't be able to do much except tax cuts even with all branches of government.

Only way to be. Also many people have survived much worse than this in the 400+ years US has been a thing.

Do weep for the hate being directed at so many people, and I do think whatever they get done is likely to be damaging at best, but yeah. We'll muddle through.

250 Years at the outside. And while we have survived thus far, there has been a lot of awfulness that I'd rather not repeat. And much like the markets, past performance is not proof of future gains.

Good point - think I saw something recently regarding slavery (worldwide, but particularly in this bit of the world) and crossed up the numbers in my head.