Author Topic: The Markets Are Afraid of Donald Trump (NYT)  (Read 4378 times)

MonkeyJenga

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The Markets Are Afraid of Donald Trump (NYT)
« on: October 01, 2016, 04:15:43 PM »
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/02/upshot/debate-night-message-the-markets-are-afraid-of-donald-trump.html?_r=0

As Secretary Clinton and Donald went through their first debate, an analysis was done of how S&P overnight futures and the Mexican peso tracked against the likelihood that Hillary Clinton will win the election. It apparently shows that the markets prefer her as president, and if he wins, the domestic stock market could fall 10-12%.

Thoughts on the validity of this conclusion?

I'm unable to copy any of the text or charts, so to view you'll need to follow the link.

MDM

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Re: The Markets Are Afraid of Donald Trump (NYT)
« Reply #1 on: October 01, 2016, 05:00:52 PM »
I would expect the NY Times to say negative things about Trump, the same as I'd expect Investor's Business Daily to say negative things about Clinton.

Seems everyone has an agenda, and few and far between are those whose agendas are not heavily influenced by political beliefs.

MonkeyJenga

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Re: The Markets Are Afraid of Donald Trump (NYT)
« Reply #2 on: October 01, 2016, 05:05:23 PM »
Yes, potential bias is why I'm asking the question. Putting aside the messenger, there are certain facts in the article. Is there a specific point in their argument where their reasoning drawn from those facts is incorrect?

ender

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Re: The Markets Are Afraid of Donald Trump (NYT)
« Reply #3 on: October 01, 2016, 05:10:05 PM »
Markets generally don't like instability or uncertainty.

Clinton has basically promised to be Obama's third term, a known entity. Trump is a wild card no one has any ideas about, probably not even himself.

It's not surprising to me to imagine that Trump getting elected would drop the market in the short term. Beyond that, I don't think the president has enough impact to really matter. Which the market would probably adjust to shortly after he was elected.

marty998

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Re: The Markets Are Afraid of Donald Trump (NYT)
« Reply #4 on: October 01, 2016, 05:30:45 PM »
Markets generally don't like instability or uncertainty.

Clinton has basically promised to be Obama's third term, a known entity. Trump is a wild card no one has any ideas about, probably not even himself.

It's not surprising to me to imagine that Trump getting elected would drop the market in the short term. Beyond that, I don't think the president has enough impact to really matter. Which the market would probably adjust to shortly after he was elected.

This is the key point. If DT wins there will be an adjustment, a knee-jerk reaction of sorts which will wash through the system. If that happens, I'll have powder dry for it. If HC wins, then all the more reason to keep following the usual investment plan.

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Re: The Markets Are Afraid of Donald Trump (NYT)
« Reply #5 on: October 01, 2016, 06:10:21 PM »
I've reached an age and a station where I feel it would be very difficult to change my strategy now.  I've played by the rules for a long time and have finally figured out a way to make it work for me.  So I'm kind of happy maintaining the status quo for major policies, including foreign and financial policy.  In the past, this would be the main way to identify a "conservative voter", but that doesn't seem to be the case anymore.  What was up is down and what was black is white. 

I also just watched "The Choice" on Frontline (PBS).  I love Frontline. 
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Re: The Markets Are Afraid of Donald Trump (NYT)
« Reply #6 on: October 01, 2016, 08:38:09 PM »
Yes, potential bias is why I'm asking the question. Putting aside the messenger, there are certain facts in the article. Is there a specific point in their argument where their reasoning drawn from those facts is incorrect?
It's not clear cut to the point that one can state "correct" vs. "incorrect".  The author is reading tea leaves, and sees them in a certain way.  I just don't have any faith in tea leaf reading ability, based on small changes in measures affected by small populations, no matter which political perspective is being supported. 

redbirdfan

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Re: The Markets Are Afraid of Donald Trump (NYT)
« Reply #7 on: October 02, 2016, 01:11:15 AM »
I think we're underestimating the effect Trump would have on the market.  1. He's referred to the Fed Reserve as a political unit.  I'm  terrified at the thought of his Board of Governor appointees.  I don't know if his references to the Fed are just for show, but he has shown that he is very susceptible to conspiracy theories and he's floated more than a few about the Fed in the past.  2. He's constantly calling for the renegotiation or termination of all of our trade deals.  Again, I can't tell how much of this is hyperbole, but the threat of a trade war (when things have been fairly steady) will spook the markets every time.  3. HE HAS IMPLIED THAT HE WANTS TO RENEGOTIATE THE NATION'S DEBT. Sorry for the all caps, but it seems appropriate in this case.  Granted, I don't know if he was serious or if he understood the ramifications of making that statement.  However, as a person with a 50% chance of becoming POTUS, it is an extremely reckless statement - especially given the fragility of the economic recovery.  4.  He regularly tells people to pull their money out of the stock market.  5.  He doesn't seem to be willing to either learn about the economy in depth or to listen to traditional advisers in the field.

I'm a free trade supporting moderate Republican (at least I was pre-2016).  This is my first encounter with a Republican nominee who isn't in favor of free trade.  Not only would a Trump presidency spook the markets based on what he has already said and done, there is a very good chance that he would spook the markets on a regular basis with off hand statements and/or tweets made during his presidency.  I've passed the point at which i could console myself by assuming he will surround himself with the best and brightest.  That only works if you're willing to listen to advisers and learn from past mistakes. 

Bias alert: Kasich was my first choice.  I support Hillary over either Trump or Johnson.

Eilonwy

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Re: The Markets Are Afraid of Donald Trump (NYT)
« Reply #8 on: October 02, 2016, 01:33:37 AM »
"I've passed the point at which i could console myself by assuming he will surround himself with the best and brightest.  That only works if you're willing to listen to advisers and learn from past mistakes. "

Not to mention, everyone he's surrounded himself with so far is despicable.

arebelspy

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Re: The Markets Are Afraid of Donald Trump (NYT)
« Reply #9 on: October 02, 2016, 02:59:00 AM »
Assuming the article is true... if a Mustachian has 10-15 working years left, would a Trump presidency and market crash now, and for the next few years, be better for their FIRE date, to buy low?  There's plenty of reasons not to vote Trump, but I'm not asking if they should favor Trump or not for any of those other reasons, but would a Mustachian, acting purely from selfish reasons only related to their portfolio prefer a Trump presidency and corresponding market crash?
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GuitarStv

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Re: The Markets Are Afraid of Donald Trump (NYT)
« Reply #10 on: October 02, 2016, 03:51:36 AM »
would a Mustachian, acting purely from selfish reasons only related to their portfolio prefer a Trump presidency and corresponding market crash?

No.  Because acting like an asshole for tiny personal gain is against Mustachianism.  Otherwise we would all be advocating pouring your engine oil down the kitchen sink after doing an oil change on your car (cheaper and easier than disposing of it properly), pirating all the media we consume, and graft as a source of income.

arebelspy

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Re: The Markets Are Afraid of Donald Trump (NYT)
« Reply #11 on: October 02, 2016, 03:58:38 AM »
would a Mustachian, acting purely from selfish reasons only related to their portfolio prefer a Trump presidency and corresponding market crash?

No.  Because acting like an asshole for tiny personal gain is against Mustachianism.  Otherwise we would all be advocating pouring your engine oil down the kitchen sink after doing an oil change on your car (cheaper and easier than disposing of it properly), pirating all the media we consume, and graft as a source of income.

Yeah, doesn't answer my question, even if true.

Still waiting for a response.  :)
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Re: The Markets Are Afraid of Donald Trump (NYT)
« Reply #12 on: October 02, 2016, 04:02:00 AM »
Assuming the article is true... if a Mustachian has 10-15 working years left, would a Trump presidency and market crash now, and for the next few years, be better for their FIRE date, to buy low?  There's plenty of reasons not to vote Trump, but I'm not asking if they should favor Trump or not for any of those other reasons, but would a Mustachian, acting purely from selfish reasons only related to their portfolio prefer a Trump presidency and corresponding market crash?
They would also have to assume that after the Trump crash there would be a Trump economic boom.
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arebelspy

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Re: The Markets Are Afraid of Donald Trump (NYT)
« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2016, 04:03:24 AM »
Assuming the article is true... if a Mustachian has 10-15 working years left, would a Trump presidency and market crash now, and for the next few years, be better for their FIRE date, to buy low?  There's plenty of reasons not to vote Trump, but I'm not asking if they should favor Trump or not for any of those other reasons, but would a Mustachian, acting purely from selfish reasons only related to their portfolio prefer a Trump presidency and corresponding market crash?
They would also have to assume that after the Trump crash there would be a Trump economic boom.

Or assume he only got 4 years, and the damage he did would be outweighed by getting to put in money low.
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MonkeyJenga

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Re: The Markets Are Afraid of Donald Trump (NYT)
« Reply #14 on: October 02, 2016, 05:32:58 AM »
Assuming the article is true... if a Mustachian has 10-15 working years left, would a Trump presidency and market crash now, and for the next few years, be better for their FIRE date, to buy low?  There's plenty of reasons not to vote Trump, but I'm not asking if they should favor Trump or not for any of those other reasons, but would a Mustachian, acting purely from selfish reasons only related to their portfolio prefer a Trump presidency and corresponding market crash?
They would also have to assume that after the Trump crash there would be a Trump economic boom.

Or assume he only got 4 years, and the damage he did would be outweighed by getting to put in money low.

Putting money in low compared to what - the markets after he leaves office? That does assume that there would be a big rebound after, instead of prolonged negative impact to the economy. Redbirdfan's list, for example, could lead to much longer impacts.

 It also assumes that this hypothetical person does not already have significant amounts invested. If they did, the markets would need to increase enough, quickly enough, to make up for their initial loss. Is that guaranteed?

 It also assumes that a prolonged crash or greatly increased volatility does not negatively affect the economy in other ways. This person could have lower wages, a harder time finding a job, or even get laid off.

If the ACA gets killed, both expected and unexpected medical costs could rise greatly for an early retiree.

I think most of the time, people overestimate the impact a president can have on jobs and the economy. In this case I think it's the opposite.

Besides, if we're talking true Mustachianism, not just the wanting to retire early part, we need to take into account the non financial parts of the MMM philosophy. Saving the environment? You don't want Trump in charge, even for four years.
« Last Edit: October 02, 2016, 05:41:02 AM by MonkeyJenga »

MonkeyJenga

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Re: The Markets Are Afraid of Donald Trump (NYT)
« Reply #15 on: October 02, 2016, 05:43:25 AM »
Yes, potential bias is why I'm asking the question. Putting aside the messenger, there are certain facts in the article. Is there a specific point in their argument where their reasoning drawn from those facts is incorrect?
It's not clear cut to the point that one can state "correct" vs. "incorrect".  The author is reading tea leaves, and sees them in a certain way.  I just don't have any faith in tea leaf reading ability, based on small changes in measures affected by small populations, no matter which political perspective is being supported.

Gotcha, thanks.

arebelspy

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Re: The Markets Are Afraid of Donald Trump (NYT)
« Reply #16 on: October 02, 2016, 07:36:08 AM »
Assuming the article is true... if a Mustachian has 10-15 working years left, would a Trump presidency and market crash now, and for the next few years, be better for their FIRE date, to buy low?  There's plenty of reasons not to vote Trump, but I'm not asking if they should favor Trump or not for any of those other reasons, but would a Mustachian, acting purely from selfish reasons only related to their portfolio prefer a Trump presidency and corresponding market crash?
They would also have to assume that after the Trump crash there would be a Trump economic boom.

Or assume he only got 4 years, and the damage he did would be outweighed by getting to put in money low.

Putting money in low compared to what - the markets after he leaves office? That does assume that there would be a big rebound after, instead of prolonged negative impact to the economy. Redbirdfan's list, for example, could lead to much longer impacts.

 It also assumes that this hypothetical person does not already have significant amounts invested. If they did, the markets would need to increase enough, quickly enough, to make up for their initial loss. Is that guaranteed?

 It also assumes that a prolonged crash or greatly increased volatility does not negatively affect the economy in other ways. This person could have lower wages, a harder time finding a job, or even get laid off.

If the ACA gets killed, both expected and unexpected medical costs could rise greatly for an early retiree.

I think most of the time, people overestimate the impact a president can have on jobs and the economy. In this case I think it's the opposite.

Besides, if we're talking true Mustachianism, not just the wanting to retire early part, we need to take into account the non financial parts of the MMM philosophy. Saving the environment? You don't want Trump in charge, even for four years.
All great points towards what I was getting at (except the last, which is a fine point, but not financially related). Thanks!
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redbirdfan

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Re: The Markets Are Afraid of Donald Trump (NYT)
« Reply #17 on: October 02, 2016, 09:35:10 AM »
Quote
Assuming the article is true... if a Mustachian has 10-15 working years left, would a Trump presidency and market crash now, and for the next few years, be better for their FIRE date, to buy low?  There's plenty of reasons not to vote Trump, but I'm not asking if they should favor Trump or not for any of those other reasons, but would a Mustachian, acting purely from selfish reasons only related to their portfolio prefer a Trump presidency and corresponding market crash?

Not in this case.  I wouldn't vote for Trump just to cause a dip in the markets just like I wouldn't advocate for war just to cause a dip in the markets.  I never root for black swan events or market corrections.  I just try to make sure I stay the course during the inevitable ebbs and flows of the market.  I'm still in the accumulation phase, but I have too much empathy for those already retired who have been through a rough low interest rate environment to purposefully cause a market decline.  The market is volatile enough on its own.   

Regarding your question as it relates to Trump, one of the main reasons the US stock and bond markets rebound so quickly is because our markets and currency are considered a safe haven for the world.  I do not underestimate Trump's ability to undermine that sentiment.  His fixation on currency manipulation and his desire to blow up trade deals could have effects that last beyond his presidential term.  Trade deals and organizations such as NAFTA, the WTO and the TPP have geopolitical benefits above and beyond the trade deals themselves.  Publicly criticizing China in various degrees of incoherence is NOT part of the solution. 

Trump's tax plan would drastically slash government revenue while he is advocating for a substantial uptick in government spending.  With respect to trade, his position from his website is hyperlinked below. He seems to want to really go after China.  China currently holds about 6-7% of US debt FWIW.  I no longer trust a Republican congress to stand up to him.  I think Trump would continue to throw twitter tantrums as POTUS.  Those twitter tantrums could roil the markets and have serious consequences for our relationships abroad.  No thanks. 

   https://www.donaldjtrump.com/policies/trade/


   

radram

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Re: The Markets Are Afraid of Donald Trump (NYT)
« Reply #18 on: October 03, 2016, 08:23:10 AM »
Quote
Assuming the article is true... if a Mustachian has 10-15 working years left, would a Trump presidency and market crash now, and for the next few years, be better for their FIRE date, to buy low?  There's plenty of reasons not to vote Trump, but I'm not asking if they should favor Trump or not for any of those other reasons, but would a Mustachian, acting purely from selfish reasons only related to their portfolio prefer a Trump presidency and corresponding market crash?

Not in this case.  I wouldn't vote for Trump just to cause a dip in the markets just like I wouldn't advocate for war just to cause a dip in the markets.  I never root for black swan events or market corrections.  I just try to make sure I stay the course during the inevitable ebbs and flows of the market.  I'm still in the accumulation phase, but I have too much empathy for those already retired who have been through a rough low interest rate environment to purposefully cause a market decline.  The market is volatile enough on its own.   

Regarding your question as it relates to Trump, one of the main reasons the US stock and bond markets rebound so quickly is because our markets and currency are considered a safe haven for the world.  I do not underestimate Trump's ability to undermine that sentiment.  His fixation on currency manipulation and his desire to blow up trade deals could have effects that last beyond his presidential term.  Trade deals and organizations such as NAFTA, the WTO and the TPP have geopolitical benefits above and beyond the trade deals themselves.  Publicly criticizing China in various degrees of incoherence is NOT part of the solution. 

Trump's tax plan would drastically slash government revenue while he is advocating for a substantial uptick in government spending.  With respect to trade, his position from his website is hyperlinked below. He seems to want to really go after China.  China currently holds about 6-7% of US debt FWIW.  I no longer trust a Republican congress to stand up to him.  I think Trump would continue to throw twitter tantrums as POTUS.  Those twitter tantrums could roil the markets and have serious consequences for our relationships abroad.  No thanks. 

   https://www.donaldjtrump.com/policies/trade/


   

I had a lengthy post I was working on until I read this.  This reply says it better.

+1


libertarian4321

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Re: The Markets Are Afraid of Donald Trump (NYT)
« Reply #19 on: October 24, 2016, 02:41:49 PM »
The markets don't like uncertainty, and Trump is somewhere between an erratic egomaniac and "bat shit crazy."  He is the definition of uncertainty.

Hillary is corrupt, dishonest, and has a remarkable knack for making the wrong decision, but at least you more or less know what she's going whatever is best for Hillary- that is not nearly as uncertain.

I'm voting for Libertarian Governor Gary Johnson because he is neither an erratic egomaniac or a corrupt, dishonest politician.

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Re: The Markets Are Afraid of Donald Trump (NYT)
« Reply #20 on: October 24, 2016, 03:39:30 PM »
Wasn't Gary Johnson the fellow who "lifted up the skirts of Mt Everest?"

Quote
“People ask me, ‘Gosh, what what it like to conquer Mount Everest?’,” Johnson said at a National Press Club luncheon. “Well, I did not conquer Mount Everest, she lifted her skirt and I got in there and got a peek and it was really cool.”
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ender

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Re: The Markets Are Afraid of Donald Trump (NYT)
« Reply #21 on: October 24, 2016, 04:15:53 PM »
Wasn't Gary Johnson the fellow who "lifted up the skirts of Mt Everest?"

Quote
“People ask me, ‘Gosh, what what it like to conquer Mount Everest?’,” Johnson said at a National Press Club luncheon. “Well, I did not conquer Mount Everest, she lifted her skirt and I got in there and got a peek and it was really cool.”

... ?

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Re: The Markets Are Afraid of Donald Trump (NYT)
« Reply #22 on: October 25, 2016, 08:54:12 AM »
John Oliver (a completely unbiased source of course) did a show examining Gary Johnson and the Green presidential candidate (Jill Stein I think).

This was one of Gary Johnson's quotes that struck me as unusually odd.   Linky:

https://www.inverse.com/article/22268-john-oliver-gary-johnson-jill-stein

It's quite a selection running in the election.   Reminds me a bit of the 2011 Canadian federal election.
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Making Cookies

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Re: The Markets Are Afraid of Donald Trump (NYT)
« Reply #23 on: October 25, 2016, 09:28:17 AM »
Quote
Assuming the article is true... if a Mustachian has 10-15 working years left, would a Trump presidency and market crash now, and for the next few years, be better for their FIRE date, to buy low?  There's plenty of reasons not to vote Trump, but I'm not asking if they should favor Trump or not for any of those other reasons, but would a Mustachian, acting purely from selfish reasons only related to their portfolio prefer a Trump presidency and corresponding market crash?

Not in this case.  I wouldn't vote for Trump just to cause a dip in the markets just like I wouldn't advocate for war just to cause a dip in the markets.  I never root for black swan events or market corrections.  I just try to make sure I stay the course during the inevitable ebbs and flows of the market.  I'm still in the accumulation phase, but I have too much empathy for those already retired who have been through a rough low interest rate environment to purposefully cause a market decline.  The market is volatile enough on its own.   

Regarding your question as it relates to Trump, one of the main reasons the US stock and bond markets rebound so quickly is because our markets and currency are considered a safe haven for the world.  I do not underestimate Trump's ability to undermine that sentiment.  His fixation on currency manipulation and his desire to blow up trade deals could have effects that last beyond his presidential term.  Trade deals and organizations such as NAFTA, the WTO and the TPP have geopolitical benefits above and beyond the trade deals themselves.  Publicly criticizing China in various degrees of incoherence is NOT part of the solution. 

Trump's tax plan would drastically slash government revenue while he is advocating for a substantial uptick in government spending.  With respect to trade, his position from his website is hyperlinked below. He seems to want to really go after China.  China currently holds about 6-7% of US debt FWIW.  I no longer trust a Republican congress to stand up to him.  I think Trump would continue to throw twitter tantrums as POTUS.  Those twitter tantrums could roil the markets and have serious consequences for our relationships abroad.  No thanks. 

   https://www.donaldjtrump.com/policies/trade/

Is there any chance that the GOP would try to politically isolate or moderate Trump's words/actions like they have Barack Obama over the past eight years?

I imagine Trump getting into a ego match with some leader of another country and spooking everyone with talk of war. Hopefully something that stupid would lead to a recall vote, and our military leaders disobeying whatever cockeyed orders Trump might issue.

And yes I do see Trump as being that impulsive.

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Re: The Markets Are Afraid of Donald Trump (NYT)
« Reply #24 on: October 25, 2016, 09:28:54 AM »
John Oliver (a completely unbiased source of course) did a show examining Gary Johnson and the Green presidential candidate (Jill Stein I think).

This was one of Gary Johnson's quotes that struck me as unusually odd.   Linky:

https://www.inverse.com/article/22268-john-oliver-gary-johnson-jill-stein

It's quite a selection running in the election.   Reminds me a bit of the 2011 Canadian federal election.

As long as the markets like him, he can't be that bad.
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Re: The Markets Are Afraid of Donald Trump (NYT)
« Reply #25 on: October 25, 2016, 09:58:09 AM »
I imagine Trump getting into a ego match with some leader of another country and spooking everyone with talk of war. Hopefully something that stupid would lead to a recall vote, and our military leaders disobeying whatever cockeyed orders Trump might issue.

There is no such thing as a recall vote to remove the President. The only way to get rid of one (legally) is impeachment. For that, Trump would have to commit actual crimes, not merely make disastrously poor decisions.

radram

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Re: The Markets Are Afraid of Donald Trump (NYT)
« Reply #26 on: October 25, 2016, 11:41:00 AM »
I imagine Trump getting into a ego match with some leader of another country and spooking everyone with talk of war. Hopefully something that stupid would lead to a recall vote, and our military leaders disobeying whatever cockeyed orders Trump might issue.

There is no such thing as a recall vote to remove the President. The only way to get rid of one (legally) is impeachment. For that, Trump would have to commit actual crimes, not merely make disastrously poor decisions.

To be precise. you do not have to COMMIT any crime.  One needs to be impeached(house) and convicted(senate) of that crime(s).  Although very rare, innocent people do get convicted of crimes. Does anyone know if a senate conviction could be appealed?  Maybe the Supreme Court could overturn?

Your recall point is spot on.

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Re: The Markets Are Afraid of Donald Trump (NYT)
« Reply #27 on: October 25, 2016, 12:15:38 PM »

Is there any chance that the GOP would try to politically isolate or moderate Trump's words/actions like they have Barack Obama over the past eight years?

I imagine Trump getting into a ego match with some leader of another country and spooking everyone with talk of war. Hopefully something that stupid would lead to a recall vote, and our military leaders disobeying whatever cockeyed orders Trump might issue.

And yes I do see Trump as being that impulsive.

Or we could take the much simpler approach of just not electing Trump.
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Re: The Markets Are Afraid of Donald Trump (NYT)
« Reply #28 on: October 25, 2016, 12:27:02 PM »
Quote
Assuming the article is true... if a Mustachian has 10-15 working years left, would a Trump presidency and market crash now, and for the next few years, be better for their FIRE date, to buy low?  There's plenty of reasons not to vote Trump, but I'm not asking if they should favor Trump or not for any of those other reasons, but would a Mustachian, acting purely from selfish reasons only related to their portfolio prefer a Trump presidency and corresponding market crash?

Not in this case.  I wouldn't vote for Trump just to cause a dip in the markets just like I wouldn't advocate for war just to cause a dip in the markets.  I never root for black swan events or market corrections.  I just try to make sure I stay the course during the inevitable ebbs and flows of the market.  I'm still in the accumulation phase, but I have too much empathy for those already retired who have been through a rough low interest rate environment to purposefully cause a market decline.  The market is volatile enough on its own.   

Regarding your question as it relates to Trump, one of the main reasons the US stock and bond markets rebound so quickly is because our markets and currency are considered a safe haven for the world.  I do not underestimate Trump's ability to undermine that sentiment.  His fixation on currency manipulation and his desire to blow up trade deals could have effects that last beyond his presidential term.  Trade deals and organizations such as NAFTA, the WTO and the TPP have geopolitical benefits above and beyond the trade deals themselves.  Publicly criticizing China in various degrees of incoherence is NOT part of the solution. 

Trump's tax plan would drastically slash government revenue while he is advocating for a substantial uptick in government spending.  With respect to trade, his position from his website is hyperlinked below. He seems to want to really go after China.  China currently holds about 6-7% of US debt FWIW.  I no longer trust a Republican congress to stand up to him.  I think Trump would continue to throw twitter tantrums as POTUS.  Those twitter tantrums could roil the markets and have serious consequences for our relationships abroad.  No thanks. 

   https://www.donaldjtrump.com/policies/trade/

Is there any chance that the GOP would try to politically isolate or moderate Trump's words/actions like they have Barack Obama over the past eight years?

I imagine Trump getting into a ego match with some leader of another country and spooking everyone with talk of war. Hopefully something that stupid would lead to a recall vote, and our military leaders disobeying whatever cockeyed orders Trump might issue.

And yes I do see Trump as being that impulsive.

I can't see either party actively trying to sabotage their own party's President.  The party occasionally fights back, but it takes something they seriously won't tolerate as a group.

My concern with Trump is if he somehow manages to sink any of our trade agreements, it could takes years and political/economic concessions we don't want to get them back.  He's shown a serious lack of knowledge on how ours and the world's economies actually work.   So far he's gained traction playing on the fact that a lot of folks don't understand either.  If they shout loud enough, their Congressmen may not be willing to back another free/fair trade agreement.
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Metric Mouse

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Re: The Markets Are Afraid of Donald Trump (NYT)
« Reply #29 on: October 26, 2016, 11:48:45 PM »
I imagine Trump getting into a ego match with some leader of another country and spooking everyone with talk of war. Hopefully something that stupid would lead to a recall vote, and our military leaders disobeying whatever cockeyed orders Trump might issue.

There is no such thing as a recall vote to remove the President. The only way to get rid of one (legally) is impeachment. For that, Trump would have to commit actual crimes, not merely make disastrously poor decisions.

To be precise. you do not have to COMMIT any crime.  One needs to be impeached(house) and convicted(senate) of that crime(s).  Although very rare, innocent people do get convicted of crimes. Does anyone know if a senate conviction could be appealed?  Maybe the Supreme Court could overturn?

Your recall point is spot on.

To be precise, one can probably be impeached without even being accused of a crime.  The constitution states "treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors" are grounds for impeachment; High Crimes and Misdemeanors are almost certainly open to interpretation by the House of Representatives.

Nixon V. United States kinda ruled out the SCOTUS having much say in the impeachment process.
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radram

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Re: The Markets Are Afraid of Donald Trump (NYT)
« Reply #30 on: October 27, 2016, 06:27:45 AM »
I imagine Trump getting into a ego match with some leader of another country and spooking everyone with talk of war. Hopefully something that stupid would lead to a recall vote, and our military leaders disobeying whatever cockeyed orders Trump might issue.

There is no such thing as a recall vote to remove the President. The only way to get rid of one (legally) is impeachment. For that, Trump would have to commit actual crimes, not merely make disastrously poor decisions.

To be precise. you do not have to COMMIT any crime.  One needs to be impeached(house) and convicted(senate) of that crime(s).  Although very rare, innocent people do get convicted of crimes. Does anyone know if a senate conviction could be appealed?  Maybe the Supreme Court could overturn?

Your recall point is spot on.

To be precise, one can probably be impeached without even being accused of a crime.  The constitution states "treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors" are grounds for impeachment; High Crimes and Misdemeanors are almost certainly open to interpretation by the House of Representatives.

Nixon V. United States kinda ruled out the SCOTUS having much say in the impeachment process.

Oh yeah that's right, a misdemeanor is not considered a crime. Thankfully our political system is made up of people who would never abuse this power by making accusations that can not be proven in a court of law. :0

I will look up the Nixon v. US thing.  Thank you for the lead. 

Bicycle_B

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Re: The Markets Are Afraid of Donald Trump (NYT)
« Reply #31 on: October 27, 2016, 07:40:36 PM »
I imagine Trump getting into a ego match with some leader of another country and spooking everyone with talk of war. Hopefully something that stupid would lead to a recall vote, and our military leaders disobeying whatever cockeyed orders Trump might issue.

There is no such thing as a recall vote to remove the President. The only way to get rid of one (legally) is impeachment. For that, Trump would have to commit actual crimes, not merely make disastrously poor decisions.


To be precise. you do not have to COMMIT any crime.  One needs to be impeached(house) and convicted(senate) of that crime(s).  Although very rare, innocent people do get convicted of crimes. Does anyone know if a senate conviction could be appealed?  Maybe the Supreme Court could overturn?

Your recall point is spot on.

To be precise, one can probably be impeached without even being accused of a crime.  The constitution states "treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors" are grounds for impeachment; High Crimes and Misdemeanors are almost certainly open to interpretation by the House of Representatives.

Nixon V. United States kinda ruled out the SCOTUS having much say in the impeachment process.

I vote for removal by eagle, as in Epic Rap Battles:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kbryz0mxuMY

« Last Edit: October 27, 2016, 07:46:27 PM by Bicycle_B »