The Election Results Thread

[FIPurpose]

Well here it is. The final day. How do you think it's going to go down. Polls have been narrowing as they typically do near election time.

The first states well see results for are VA and GA , and I think we'll see them go to Hillary and Trump respectively. The more interesting states near the east coast are OH, MI, PA, NH, NC, FL. Trump wins with PA and Hillary wins with FL. Here's my guess:
Trump: OH, FL
Hillary: PA, MI, NC, NH

Will be updating through the night if race stays tight.

[MrRealEstate]

If only we could call a mulligan on this entire election.

[nereo]

Oh what the hell - might as well play...
(only including the states that are close based on recent polling)

Clinton will win: PA, VA, NC, MI, WI, NH, MN, NV & FL.  Total = 322

Trump will win: GA, OH, IN, MO, IW, TX, UT, AZ + ME's 4th electoral vote. Total = 216

NC and FL may both be within 0.5% triggering recounts. - everything else will be >1%.  However, even without both NV and FL Clinton will have 278 and enough to make the recount largely symbolic.

[Northwestie]

Clinton 338 340
Trump 200 198

[nereo]

Clinton 338
Trump 200

Just trying to figure out the 338 - are you predicting a Clinton win in Georgia?

[Northwestie]

Clinton 338
Trump 200

Just trying to figure out the 338 - are you predicting a Clinton win in Georgia?

Optimistically unrealistic.

[nereo]

Clinton 338
Trump 200

Just trying to figure out the 338 - are you predicting a Clinton win in Georgia?

Optimistically unrealistic.

Agreed - so how did you come up with 338?

[Northwestie]

Poor addition - Ohio. Modified

Senate predictions?  That seems a tossup

[HPstache]

McMullin wins UT.  Trump & Hillary deadlock @ 266.  Decision goes to Congress.  Congress compromises with McMullin Pence ticket.

[MasterStache]

Ditka - 538
Clinton - 0
Trump - 0

[nereo]

McMullin wins UT.  Trump & Hillary deadlock @ 266.  Decision goes to Congress.  Congress compromises with McMullin Pence ticket.

Yeah, the chances of that are indistinguishable from 0.  Three unlikely things would need to happen in succession, each less likely than the previous one.

Ditka - 538
Clinton - 0
Trump - 0

I think I'd prefer the two we have to Ditka.

[marty998]

Good morning America.

It's 7:20am here in Sydney, we have all day to watch this horror show.

A few of our reporters have gone over there to introduce your voting queues to the wonders of the humble sausage sizzle. Try one if you can!

[libertarian4321]

Good morning America.

It's 7:20am here in Sydney, we have all day to watch this horror show.

A few of our reporters have gone over there to introduce your voting queues to the wonders of the humble sausage sizzle. Try one if you can!

It's just as much a horror show for most Americans as for anyone else.

Our "2-Party system" is terribly broken when, realistically, one of the two horrific candidates (Hillary and Trump) will win.

Still, I refuse to play that game.  I voted for Libertarian (3rd Party) candidate Governor Gary Johnson.

Now I'll sit back, butter up some popcorn, and watch this debacle unfold.

And before anyone gives me the "wasted vote" or "you voted for Hillary/Trump by not voting for Trump/Hillary" bull crap, let me state unequivocally that I would NEVER vote for either of the corrupt buffoons, Hillary or Trump- not even if they were the only candidate on the ballot.  They are both nightmare candidates.

[Chris22]

If only we could call a mulligan on this entire election.

Go back 6 months and call it Biden vs. Kasich.

I don't care which one wins.

[onlykelsey]

McMullin wins UT.  Trump & Hillary deadlock @ 266.  Decision goes to Congress.  Congress compromises with McMullin Pence ticket.

That is very optimistic for Trump and even moreso for McMullin.  Is McMullin your preferred candidate? It sounds like it.

[libertarian4321]

If only we could call a mulligan on this entire election.

Go back 6 months and call it Biden vs. Kasich.

I'm not a huge fan of either of them, but at least they are reasonable choices.  Trump and Hillary are not.

[Mississippi Mudstache]

If only we could call a mulligan on this entire election.

Go back 6 months and call it Biden vs. Kasich.

I don't care which one wins.

I don't agree with you on everything, but we can shake hands on this one. Our republic would be in a better place today if these two had been the candidates.

[sol]

Hillary needs to win at least two of the four remaining battleground states by decisive margins.  FL, NH, NC, NV.

If she only wins one by a clear majority, and any one of the other three is close, Trump can drag this election out for months by contesting the results.  So for example if Hillary wins NV and trump wins NC, and either NH or FL is within half a percent (which seems likely), then he'll contest the election and demand a recount and this thing will be 2000 all over again. 

I don't think he can admit defeat graciously in any scenario except a complete blowout.  Any result that is kind of close he will take to the courts.

[Mississippi Mudstache]

My prediction: Clinton prevails, 308 to 230. She wins NH and NV by healthy margins. She wins FL by less then 1% on the strength of the Hispanic turnout, and loses NC by a similar margin due to weakness in the black turnout. No recounts necessary.

[Cassie]

I live in NV and Latinos are voting in record numbers this year. I really think they did not like being called rapists and murderers.  Clinton will win by a wide enough margin that he can't contest it and he will have a big temper tantrum.  That's what my crystal ball says:))

[bacchi]

Yeah, Trump is done in NV. Early voting indicates a Trump loss and he's already filing lawsuits there.

[HPstache]

McMullin wins UT.  Trump & Hillary deadlock @ 266.  Decision goes to Congress.  Congress compromises with McMullin Pence ticket.

That is very optimistic for Trump and even moreso for McMullin.  Is McMullin your preferred candidate? It sounds like it.

It's the only actual chance for someone other than Trump or Clinton... so yeah, I guess so.

[AlanStache]

I live in NV and Latinos are voting in record numbers this year. I really think they did not like being called rapists and murderers.  ...

Funny that... :-) 

[onlykelsey]

I live in NV and Latinos are voting in record numbers this year. I really think they did not like being called rapists and murderers.  ...

Funny that... :-)

A few of my Latino and Muslim friends have posted "I voted" selfies with "#itspersonal".  I think he may have inadvertently rounded up a bunch of women that way, too.

[hoping2retire35]

http://heavy.com/news/2016/11/clinton-vs-trump-2016-presidential-polls-latest-today-now-electoral-college-map-tie-what-happens-deadlock-no-one-wins-evan-mcmullin-house-of-representatives-hillary/

Didn't realize there were so many likely possibilities.

 used some map calculators. I cant get either one realistically above 310 conversely under 220. Fl is pretty much a must win in any likely scenario I can see.

[AlanStache]

I live in NV and Latinos are voting in record numbers this year. I really think they did not like being called rapists and murderers.  ...

Funny that... :-)

A few of my Latino and Muslim friends have posted "I voted" selfies with "#itspersonal".  I think he may have inadvertently rounded up a bunch of women that way, too.

My gay friends have been rather lop-sided this election too.

[Jack]

let me state unequivocally that I would NEVER vote for... corrupt buffoons... not even if they were the only candidate on the ballot.

I, for one, routinely abstain from most single-candidate races anyway as a matter of principle. In this election, out of the seven races in which the candidate ran unopposed, I left six blank. (I filled in the last one because I actually interact with that candidate occasionally and think she's actually good rather than merely the only choice.)

[onlykelsey]

I live in NV and Latinos are voting in record numbers this year. I really think they did not like being called rapists and murderers.  ...

Funny that... :-)

A few of my Latino and Muslim friends have posted "I voted" selfies with "#itspersonal".  I think he may have inadvertently rounded up a bunch of women that way, too.

My gay friends have been rather lop-sided this election too.

Perplexing.

[FIPurpose]

For those talking electoral ties, I think this map would be most likely if a tie were to occur. Requires full Clinton win in Maine and Trump winning NH a most other swing states. McMullin winning Utah optional.

[shelivesthedream]

let me state unequivocally that I would NEVER vote for... corrupt buffoons... not even if they were the only candidate on the ballot.

I, for one, routinely abstain from most single-candidate races anyway as a matter of principle. In this election, out of the seven races in which the candidate ran unopposed, I left six blank. (I filled in the last one because I actually interact with that candidate occasionally and think she's actually good rather than merely the only choice.)

I was brought up to believe that it's one's duty to vote - my mother used to take me down to the polling station with her when I was a child and tell me I had to vote when I grew up otherwise the suffragettes would be turning in their graves. I remember once having a nightmare about zombie suffragettes coming to get me... :P Anyway, I think people should always turn up at the polling station and if you don't want to vote for anyone you can always spoil your ballot. They take note of how many spoiled ballots there were and if you go and write "ALL THESE CANDIDATES ARE IN HOCK TO THE LIZARD PEOPLE" then all the candidates have to stand around and agree that it is indeed spoiled. Not sure if it's the same in the US, but I worked at the count in the last general election (sadly not the referendum) and I got one person who had written over two sides of their ballot a little essay about why they didn't want to vote for any of the candidates, and they all had to stand around and read it. Makes a point rather than not going and being lumped in with the "don't vote, don't care" people. If you don't tell them, how will they know why you didn't vote? I don't know how your electronic ballot thing works, and maybe you can't spoil that, but you could always send an email to all the candidates explaining why you didn't vote for any of them.

[AlanStache]

let me state unequivocally that I would NEVER vote for... corrupt buffoons... not even if they were the only candidate on the ballot.

I, for one, routinely abstain from most single-candidate races anyway as a matter of principle. In this election, out of the seven races in which the candidate ran unopposed, I left six blank. (I filled in the last one because I actually interact with that candidate occasionally and think she's actually good rather than merely the only choice.)

I was brought up to believe that it's one's duty to vote - my mother used to take me down to the polling station with her when I was a child and tell me I had to vote when I grew up otherwise the suffragettes would be turning in their graves. I remember once having a nightmare about zombie suffragettes coming to get me... :P Anyway, I think people should always turn up at the polling station and if you don't want to vote for anyone you can always spoil your ballot. They take note of how many spoiled ballots there were and if you go and write "ALL THESE CANDIDATES ARE IN HOCK TO THE LIZARD PEOPLE" then all the candidates have to stand around and agree that it is indeed spoiled. Not sure if it's the same in the US, but I worked at the count in the last general election (sadly not the referendum) and I got one person who had written over two sides of their ballot a little essay about why they didn't want to vote for any of the candidates, and they all had to stand around and read it. Makes a point rather than not going and being lumped in with the "don't vote, don't care" people. If you don't tell them, how will they know why you didn't vote? I don't know how your electronic ballot thing works, and maybe you can't spoil that, but you could always send an email to all the candidates explaining why you didn't vote for any of them.

With the electronic ballets you can write in a name but I am sure it is charter length limited and I have zero confidence anyone of any importance would have to read it.  The electronic systems may count up five votes for Captain Crunch but those votes will never be reported unless you really really look for them ie they might be recorded on some hard copy back up report in the back of a filling cabinet in the basement of the court house. 

[Cwadda]

This election is already over. Clinton won a long time ago.

I was brought up to believe that it's one's duty to vote

Voting isn't a duty. It's a right. The fact that so much of America thinks of voting as some kind of civic duty is frankly very scary to me.

For those talking electoral ties, I think this map would be most likely if a tie were to occur. Requires full Clinton win in Maine and Trump winning NH a most other swing states. McMullin winning Utah optional.

Thanks for posting this, very interesting scenario.

[robartsd]

I don't think any US States do anything meaningful with a spoiled ballot cast in protest. In my area, I could go to the polling place, spoil a ballot, surrender it, receive a replacement, and eventually cast a valid ballot (I think if I spoil the third ballot I am out of luck). The poll workers retain the spoiled ballot for auditing purposes, but the ballot would not be counted or reviewed by candidates. However, casting a blank ballot would be count as voter turnout without counting towards any of the contests - in significant numbers these could get some attention to the protest vote - not showing up is considered voter apathy, casting a blank ballot is not. You can also vote in some of the contests on a ballot without voting in all of them (my ballot has: president, senate, house of representatives, state senate, state assembly, at least one local official, 17 state propositions, and 2 local measures).

[hoping2retire35]

10% reporting in VA. Trump is winning. I know it must be the rural Counties reporting, but still surprising.

[MasterStache]

Florida is crazy close. 

[hoping2retire35]

Florida is crazy close.

its gonna be 2000 all over again!!!!!ahhh!!

lol, Fl is 60% in and its within 4k votes...

Va. is 43% and trump still has a 9pt lead...

ohio, only 15% reporting but HRC has 7pt lead.

[Freckles]

I think Hillary is going to win.

[bacchi]

Va. is 43% and trump still has a 9pt lead...

I see no votes counted yet for the DC burbs in Va. Once those roll in, Trump's lead will shrink rapidly.

[hoping2retire35]

I am on the Va election site now, how do you see that?

[bacchi]

I am on the Va election site now, how do you see that?

By locality: Prince William, Fairfax, etc.

It may not be enough, though.

[hoping2retire35]

Va is becoming a shock fest.

Ohio is 25% reporting and is nearly as close a Fl now, 1-2%.

better go and turn my malt grains, can't look at this stuff all night.

[bacchi]

Trump may actually pull it off. A Republican Congress with Trump as President? Wow.

[Jack]

I, for one, routinely abstain from most single-candidate races anyway as a matter of principle. In this election, out of the seven races in which the candidate ran unopposed, I left six blank. (I filled in the last one because I actually interact with that candidate occasionally and think she's actually good rather than merely the only choice.)

However, casting a blank ballot would be count as voter turnout without counting towards any of the contests - in significant numbers these could get some attention to the protest vote - not showing up is considered voter apathy, casting a blank ballot is not. You can also vote in some of the contests on a ballot without voting in all of them (my ballot has: president, senate, house of representatives, state senate, state assembly, at least one local official, 17 state propositions, and 2 local measures).

Exactly. If the election rules are progressive enough (Georgia's aren't, AFAIK) such that they would require a majority of votes cast rather than just a plurality, it could even be possible to prevent anyone from being elected if enough people cast blank ballots. All the effectiveness of writing in "Mickey Mouse" with none of the hassle of typing it into the asinine, un-auditable electronic voting machine.

(Not that I'd suggest Mickey Mouse as a candidate anyway; Disney is evil!)

[gimp]

I've started drinking heavily. This too-close-to-call thing is bigly ungood.

[Kriegsspiel]

I've started drinking heavily. This too-close-to-call thing is bigly ungood.

Me too! I love being drunk.

[FINate]

I expect Clinton will win, and kinda hope this is the case, though I voted for Johnson #feelthejohnson

I'm in CA so my protest vote doesn't really count for much either way.

The wild card I haven't seen discussed much is Social Desirability Bias. Trump is so far over the top that I think many people, especially moderates and/or those in swing states, may vote for him in the secrecy of the voting booth yet deny it in surveys and exit polls.

Really more interested in some of the local races.

[hoping2retire35]

I'm back, hot pocket and cold beer, what did I miss?

Just kidding, I only drink my beer chilled, never cold, and preferably just cool.

[FINate]

If nothing else, entertaining...

http://time.com/4562610/women-topless-protest-donald-trump/

[Kriegsspiel]

I'm back, hot pocket and cold beer, what did I miss?

Just kidding, I only drink my beer chilled, never cold, and preferably just cool.

Enthusiastic, breathless yet inane commentary! Very exciting!

[bacchi]

If Clinton loses NC, which wasn't supposed to be a battleground state, and doesn't win in FL, her path to victory gets very narrow.