The bombing of North Korea

[vern]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/08/donald-trump-north-korea-kim-jong-un-meeting-may-letter-invite-talks-nuclear-weapons

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmBxVfQTuvI

[Kris]

.

[vern]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5640473/North-Korea-suspends-nuclear-long-range-missile-tests.html

[vern]

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6154655/north-south-korea-agree-denuclearisation-kim-jong-un-moon-jae-in/

[KTG]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5640473/North-Korea-suspends-nuclear-long-range-missile-tests.html

Yeah, they really have no choice at the moment.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/05/world/asia/north-korea-nuclear-bomb-test-site-satellite.html

[KTG]

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6154655/north-south-korea-agree-denuclearisation-kim-jong-un-moon-jae-in/

Yeah I don't think the North Koreans have declared this. This is something the South is pushing.

Even still, I am pretty sure Kim has gotten the message how big of a deal this is to the US and to Trump, as Trump has said, if there is a war with North Korea, it will be fought over there and not here.

And, I am sure everyone has seen Trump has bombed Syria TWICE while Syria is under the protection of Russia. So I think Kim has probably figured out he has to change his game a bit.

But after reading up on North Korean negotiating tactics the last 6 decades, and you should too, I think you'll find that the North Koreans are masters as getting something while not giving up anything.

And lets also note that with all the pleasantries and handshakes, Kim had his own brother assassinated. So lets not give Kim too much credit yet.

The real test is if Kim promises Trump to give up the nukes when they meet, and work out a definitive plan to make that happen.

[vern]

For decades the North Koreans used their "juche" or self-reliance philosophy to play the Soviet Union against the Chinese.  If the Soviets upset them they would go to the Chinese for aid and vice versa.  This allowed them to maintain a facade of independence.

This arrangement came to an abrupt end after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.  Since then China has been their only benefactor.  In the North Korean thinking, this gave China too much power over them.

I believe that the North Koreans want to get a deal with the United States in order to exert more pressure on the Chinese.  It would allow them to play the U.S. against China just like they did with the Soviets.

[vern]

[Radagast]

I think NK will flip sides within the next 10 years. If the US wanted to invade they would have done so 25 years ago. The changing entity in the equation is China, and NK has far more reason to be concerned about them than they do the US. Once they are in a position of strength, I expect them to change sides. Their doing so will inadvertently make whatever US president look like a foreign policy genius, while bombing NK will make Trump look even dumber than he already does, which .... I can't even imagine. I doubt that is a big concern for him.

Can I say called it? Probably it is too soon to say yet...

[toganet]

Interesting analysis of the Singapore summit & what came out of it: http://bradtaylorbooks.com/2018/06/12/five-fast-facts-from-the-singapore-summit/