Author Topic: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?  (Read 23260 times)

Mr Mark

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the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« on: May 28, 2013, 10:40:10 AM »
How many mustashians would be able to handle divorce in early retirement?

In most western countries there would be a 50/50 split of the 'stash, plus potential child support at non-mustashian rates.

Anything one can do to protect against it? Prenuptial?

It makes it even more of a partnership when retiring early, and while none of us enter into marriage expecting divorce, you have to face the statistics on likelihood.

totoro

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #1 on: May 28, 2013, 11:22:28 AM »
You could do a marriage agreement at any time, but most people do not.  If you do contract through a marriage agreement it will likely provide protection for pre-marriage assets and for inheritances. 

It is unusual to see clauses that allow for the allocation of the family home or post-marriage retirement accounts, for example, to one party alone and this type of term may be subject to legal challenge based on fairness.

When there are children you cannot contract out of support obligations by way of agreement in Canada. You will pay based on income.  If you retire early and are employable it is likely that income will be imputed to you and you would have to pay based on what you could earn.

Many, many people are unable to retire early because of divorce.  The best thing you can do imo is to spend as much or more time finding a good match and becoming and staying a good partner as you do on early retirement.

Mr Mark

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #2 on: May 28, 2013, 11:35:44 AM »
Quote from: totoro link=topic=5905.msg89112#msg89112

The best thing you can do imo is to spend as much or more time finding a good match and becoming and staying a good partner as you do on early retirement.

+1

And remember the classic 5:1 ratio of positive comments vs negative comments. Less than that is > 80% chance of divorce within 7 years!

Self-employed-swami

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #3 on: May 28, 2013, 11:44:21 AM »
DH and I got a prenup.  The lawyer handling my Mom's estate strongly recommended it. 

It divides any assets or debts from our marriage in half for each of us, but leaves any inheritances outside of the joint pool of marital assets, should something happen and we decide to split.

PKFFW

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #4 on: May 28, 2013, 06:47:43 PM »
A couple of interesting things to think about regarding pre-nups;

1:  The divorce rate for people with a pre-nup is substantially higher than the already high rate of divorce amongst the general population.
2:  Pre-nups are rarely worth the paper they are printed on.

I agree with totoro in that the best course of action is to try to be the best partner you can.  If things still go south try to create an environment in which both parties can be as amicable, reasonable and rational as possible during the divorce process.

matchewed

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #5 on: May 28, 2013, 08:51:30 PM »
A couple of interesting things to think about regarding pre-nups;

1:  The divorce rate for people with a pre-nup is substantially higher than the already high rate of divorce amongst the general population.
2:  Pre-nups are rarely worth the paper they are printed on.

I agree with totoro in that the best course of action is to try to be the best partner you can.  If things still go south try to create an environment in which both parties can be as amicable, reasonable and rational as possible during the divorce process.

What does number 2 actually mean? In what way is it not worth the value of the paper? And please provide a source for number 1 because I'm having a hell of a time finding any study to back that claim up.

englyn

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #6 on: May 28, 2013, 08:59:18 PM »
1: Correlation does not imply causation, anyway.

Paul der Krake

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #7 on: May 28, 2013, 09:05:06 PM »
Not married yet, probably will be within 1-2 years. This may sound naive but I don't expect the threat of divorce to be a big deal because:

1) We have very similar ideas in terms lof what we should be spending money on
2) With even moderately large salaries, one can lose 50% of his wealth and retire with just a few extra years of work
3) And on a more selfish note, I fully expect her brains to out-earn my lazy butt in the future ;)

limeandpepper

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #8 on: May 28, 2013, 09:11:34 PM »
Higher rate of divorce amongst people with prenups is not necessarily a bad thing. Better that one feels comfortable enough to leave a relationship that isn't right, than to stay for fear of financial devastation.

rubybeth

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #9 on: May 29, 2013, 07:28:06 AM »
How many mustashians would be able to handle divorce in early retirement?

In most western countries there would be a 50/50 split of the 'stash, plus potential child support at non-mustashian rates.

Anything one can do to protect against it? Prenuptial?

It makes it even more of a partnership when retiring early, and while none of us enter into marriage expecting divorce, you have to face the statistics on likelihood.

The thing is that the statistics are skewed. If you actually look at who gets divorced the most, and why, you can tackle those issues up-front and reduce your likelihood of divorce by a huge factor. A big factor is the age at which you and your spouse get married--if you do it before age 25, your odds of getting divorced are much higher: http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1989124,00.html

Quote
"According to research at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, one of the clearest predictors of whether wedding vows will stick is the age of the people saying them. Take the '80s: a full 81% of college graduates who got hitched in that decade at age 26 or older were still married 20 years later. Only 65% of college grads who said I do before their 26th birthday made it that far."

Thrifty/frugal couples and those with a good savings cushion are even less likely to divorce than the general population, likely because disagreements about money are a huge reason people get divorced: http://www.stateofourunions.org/2009/bank_on_it.php

DoubleDown

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #10 on: May 31, 2013, 10:57:34 AM »
Pre- or post-nuptial agreements are no doubt one of the best things you can do to protect yourself, but it will only go so far as already mentioned. If you accumulate a lot of wealth during the marriage, it's likely going to be split and set back FIRE plans. There is no doubt that divorce is a gigantic threat to FIRE, and the 40-50% likelihood is a monster. Oh, young, naive people that think because they're on the same page now, it will be that way in 10, 20, 30 years!!

Child support laws are about the most Anti-mustachian thing you could ever dream up. They typically allow support amounts to go to stratospheric levels, based solely on income, completely confounding any idea of frugality. And they are paid to the ex-spouse to use as s/he sees fit, not directly to the children. That is, the support is often used to subsidize the ex-spouse's lifestyle, not the kids.

As a simple example, if 20% of pay is taken for "child support", then on an income of $100,000, $20,000 would be paid in child support. If the income is $1 million, then the support amount would be $200,000. What child needs $200,000 to live on? Forget arguing to the court that the amount is excessive and would just encourage your kids to be spoiled brats or supporting your ex's lavish lifestyle -- the court will go strictly by the numbers. Michael Strahan of the NY Giants infamously had to pay his ex-wife over $1 million/year in "child support", even though she already got tens of millions of dollars in assets in the divorce settlement.

And, forget RE as far as child or spousal support are concerned. You will be assessed the same amount of support whether or not you retire early. As far as the laws and courts are concerned, your income will be assessed at whatever level you are earning until you are 65 at a minimum. If you retire early, and your income drops, the courts will ignore it since it is considered "voluntary underemployment." Meaning, you are locked into that earning level for the rest of your life, you can't voluntarily reduce it and have the support amount reduced with it. Even people (almost exclusively men) who have taken "early out" incentives only a few years before reaching age 65 because they were about to get laid off still have not been able to get support amounts reduced.

PKFFW

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #11 on: June 02, 2013, 04:24:39 AM »
A couple of interesting things to think about regarding pre-nups;

1:  The divorce rate for people with a pre-nup is substantially higher than the already high rate of divorce amongst the general population.
2:  Pre-nups are rarely worth the paper they are printed on.

I agree with totoro in that the best course of action is to try to be the best partner you can.  If things still go south try to create an environment in which both parties can be as amicable, reasonable and rational as possible during the divorce process.

What does number 2 actually mean? In what way is it not worth the value of the paper? And please provide a source for number 1 because I'm having a hell of a time finding any study to back that claim up.
Sorry for late reply but I've been away a few days.

Number 2 means that regardless of what the pre-nup says a decent lawyer will almost always find a way around it and ensure large parts of it, if not its entirety, is voided.

As for a source for number 1, I'd have to have a look.  I read it somewhere and to be honest I'm not even sure if it related to Australia or the US or both.  I realise it might not be the same in the US as it is in Australia.  If I can find the source I'll post it.

PKFFW

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #12 on: June 02, 2013, 04:27:05 AM »
1: Correlation does not imply causation, anyway.
No it doesn't.

However it is interesting that those who go into a marital relationship with an escape plan all made out ahead of time should things go wrong do show a greater tendency to get divorces than those who don't.

BPA

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #13 on: June 02, 2013, 05:17:54 AM »
I sometimes hear from people that they would never get divorced.  It's like they are blind to the fact that the other person in the relationship also gets to make the decision about whether it lasts.

I split from the father of my children before we had any financial assets except my pension.  Fortunately, according to Canadian law, since we were living common law, he couldn't take half my pension. 

Because of my son's needs I realized that it was very important to make sure that my estate go to my children upon my death, and that is one of the reasons I have never and will never live with a man again.  I'm also stubborn and like things my own way. 

FIRE-ing on my own has taken longer than it would have without a spouse to share the bills, but I'll still get there.

grantmeaname

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #14 on: June 02, 2013, 07:25:18 AM »
Because of my son's needs I realized that it was very important to make sure that my estate go to my children upon my death,
Unless trusts are dramatically different in Canada (and they very well may be), you could probably accomplish this with the same visit to the attorney that creates your will.

Quote
I'm also stubborn and like things my own way.
Me too. I think the secret was to find a partner who also likes things my own way. ;)

BPA

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #15 on: June 02, 2013, 07:34:25 AM »
Because of my son's needs I realized that it was very important to make sure that my estate go to my children upon my death,
Unless trusts are dramatically different in Canada (and they very well may be), you could probably accomplish this with the same visit to the attorney that creates your will.

Quote
I'm also stubborn and like things my own way.
Me too. I think the secret was to find a partner who also likes things my own way. ;)

Sadly, the rules of my pension plan make such that spouse gets first crack at that money.  I suppose there could be a way around it.

And I love your secret.  Mine was to find a partner who is stubborn, likes things his own way, and wants his place too.  ;)  I think we are brilliant, Grantmeaname!

BenDarDunDat

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #16 on: June 05, 2013, 07:42:35 AM »
If I had to give one piece of advice to a young person, it wouldn't be to give up your clown car, or take your lunch to work, or to turn back your thermostat. My one biggest piece of advice to give would be to marry well.

A divorce can wipe out your plans for early retirement, can force you out of your house, can lose rights to see your children, can shorten your life, and as horrible and awful as a divorce may sound, it's preferable to being in a bad marraige.

SnackDog

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #17 on: June 05, 2013, 07:59:03 AM »
My advice would be to marry the richest person you can find!

RetiredAt63

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #18 on: June 08, 2013, 04:33:38 AM »
BPA
You wrote 'Sadly, the rules of my pension plan make such that spouse gets first crack at that money.  I suppose there could be a way around it."  But you said you were common law.  If your ex has pension rights, there are waiver forms that he can sign that relinquish rights.  Then your pension goes to your estate.  That is what my almost-ex and I are doing, we settled pensions as part of the overall financial settlement.  But it sounds like he has no claim to your pension.  Check with your HR people, and maybe a lawyer. Also, pension rights only apply to pension earned while you were together - anything you have since you split is separate.


BPA

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #19 on: June 08, 2013, 05:21:16 AM »
BPA
You wrote 'Sadly, the rules of my pension plan make such that spouse gets first crack at that money.  I suppose there could be a way around it."  But you said you were common law.  If your ex has pension rights, there are waiver forms that he can sign that relinquish rights.  Then your pension goes to your estate.  That is what my almost-ex and I are doing, we settled pensions as part of the overall financial settlement.  But it sounds like he has no claim to your pension.  Check with your HR people, and maybe a lawyer. Also, pension rights only apply to pension earned while you were together - anything you have since you split is separate.

Oh, sorry.  I was unclear.  I meant for any future relationships.  My current boyfriend belongs to the same pension plan I do, so I guess it would be a draw for us.  My ex and I have been apart for 13 years.  Luckily we are done with all of the agreements.  He is the executor of my estate if my sister can't be for some reason which I find a bit amusing, but I trust him completely when it comes to looking out for our kids.  He is a great dad.


I'm glad that you and your soon to be ex are able to work things out relatively easily.  At least, it sounds relatively easy.  :)

cerberusss

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #20 on: June 18, 2013, 11:54:52 AM »
My advice would be to marry the richest person you can find!

What about not marrying at all? I'm from the Netherlands and among my friends, about fifty percent marries. Kids don't seem to influence their decision.

sheepstache

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #21 on: June 18, 2013, 07:59:56 PM »
1: Correlation does not imply causation, anyway.
No it doesn't.

However it is interesting that those who go into a marital relationship with an escape plan all made out ahead of time should things go wrong do show a greater tendency to get divorces than those who don't.

An alternate way of looking it would be that those who go in without an escape plan show a smaller tendency to get out.  Which might mean they're staying in miserable marriages out of fear of the financial ramifications.

PKFFW

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #22 on: June 19, 2013, 05:30:46 PM »
1: Correlation does not imply causation, anyway.
No it doesn't.

However it is interesting that those who go into a marital relationship with an escape plan all made out ahead of time should things go wrong do show a greater tendency to get divorces than those who don't.

An alternate way of looking it would be that those who go in without an escape plan show a smaller tendency to get out.  Which might mean they're staying in miserable marriages out of fear of the financial ramifications.
Your alternative way of looking at it is a valid way of stating the fact.  As is my initial way of looking at it.  Both are merely stating a fact of the data.  One group show a greater propensity to divorce, the other group show a lesser propensity to divorce.  All good so far.

Your extrapolation that it might mean those showing a lesser propensity to divorce may be staying in miserable marriages out of a fear of the financial ramifications is merely an assumption and is not verifiable in any way from the data set under discussion.

SwordGuy

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #23 on: June 19, 2013, 05:41:58 PM »
50% of all marriages end in divorce.

The other half end in death.

You could be one of the lucky ones.

sheepstache

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #24 on: June 20, 2013, 10:22:57 AM »
1: Correlation does not imply causation, anyway.
No it doesn't.

However it is interesting that those who go into a marital relationship with an escape plan all made out ahead of time should things go wrong do show a greater tendency to get divorces than those who don't.

An alternate way of looking it would be that those who go in without an escape plan show a smaller tendency to get out.  Which might mean they're staying in miserable marriages out of fear of the financial ramifications.
Your alternative way of looking at it is a valid way of stating the fact.  As is my initial way of looking at it.  Both are merely stating a fact of the data.  One group show a greater propensity to divorce, the other group show a lesser propensity to divorce.  All good so far.

Your extrapolation that it might mean those showing a lesser propensity to divorce may be staying in miserable marriages out of a fear of the financial ramifications is merely an assumption and is not verifiable in any way from the data set under discussion.

Yeah I guess what I should have said is that it might mean that.  Oh wait, I did.

PKFFW

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #25 on: June 23, 2013, 01:48:58 AM »
Yeah I guess what I should have said is that it might mean that.  Oh wait, I did.
Oh ok.  Didn't realise you were simply randomly stating things it "might be" not based on anything related to the data set.

It could also be because the sun rises in the east, the sky is blue, the wind blows or maybe because the people without the pre-nup work harder at keeping their relationship one in which they want to stay.

Who's to say hey?

matchewed

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #26 on: June 23, 2013, 05:24:36 AM »
Still waiting for that source that supports that statement. Trying to compare the statement that marriages with prenups have a higher divorce rate to other facts does not make it a fact.

Mr Mark

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #27 on: June 23, 2013, 12:35:30 PM »
I was trying to highlight to the (often very young and engineering dominated) MMM FIRE community the big 'black swan' risk that will prove far far more critical to early retirement for a very significant % than asset allocation subtleties, 401k vs Roth, total market vs sp500, SWR%, etc etc.

Your choice of life partner.

You should work at managing that investment harder than anything. As in the end, IMHO, it's both the biggest opportunity for happiness and your biggest risk of emotional and financial disaster.

Yet, no one really marries expecting to divorce. It's very difficult to imagine your marriage isn't going to work out, but especially with a future of kids, frugality, and the way we change as we age, you should accept it as a risk to be managed, not ignored.

So, watch out for:
- be very, very wary of marrying too young,
- of assuming the statistics don't apply to you, because you're special,
- of letting time, other priorities, and routine, destroy that most special thing. Your relationship with your life partner.

 The effective ROI of a successful marriage ( or second marriage) is very impressive. Work at it.





PKFFW

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #28 on: June 24, 2013, 12:16:37 AM »
Still waiting for that source that supports that statement. Trying to compare the statement that marriages with prenups have a higher divorce rate to other facts does not make it a fact.
Sorry I completely forgot to look for it.

Now that I have, I can't find anything online so I assume I read it in a dead tree article or book.  I will have a look at home but at this stage I admit it is unlikely I will be able to cite the source.  As such I'm sure it will be viewed with skepticism, if not dismissed entirely, and that's ok.

Btw, I never tried to compare the statement "to other facts".  In fact I'm not even sure what you mean by that as I never compared that statement to anything at all.  However, since this thread is almost entirely opinion based anyway I personally don't see that as a problem.

matchewed

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #29 on: June 24, 2013, 07:12:23 AM »
Still waiting for that source that supports that statement. Trying to compare the statement that marriages with prenups have a higher divorce rate to other facts does not make it a fact.
Sorry I completely forgot to look for it.

Now that I have, I can't find anything online so I assume I read it in a dead tree article or book.  I will have a look at home but at this stage I admit it is unlikely I will be able to cite the source.  As such I'm sure it will be viewed with skepticism, if not dismissed entirely, and that's ok.

Btw, I never tried to compare the statement "to other facts".  In fact I'm not even sure what you mean by that as I never compared that statement to anything at all.  However, since this thread is almost entirely opinion based anyway I personally don't see that as a problem.

Mostly from this statement. I'm sorry if I took it out of context. -

It could also be because the sun rises in the east, the sky is blue, the wind blows or maybe because the people without the pre-nup work harder at keeping their relationship one in which they want to stay.

Who's to say hey?

Which alludes to the original claim of a higher divorce rate for couples with pre-nup.

PKFFW

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #30 on: June 24, 2013, 03:18:47 PM »
Sorry I completely forgot to look for it.
Mostly from this statement. I'm sorry if I took it out of context. -

Which alludes to the original claim of a higher divorce rate for couples with pre-nup.
Yes, that statement was a reference to the claim of a higher divorce rate for couples with a pre-nup.  I thought you meant I was comparing the actual claim of a higher divorce rate for couples with a pre-nup(and not the reason why this may be true) to other facts in order to "make it a fact", which I was not.  I have read the claim somewhere and at the time the publication seemed like a reputable source to me.  I was discussing the issue on that basis and have no real interest in proving it to be a fact.

Furthermore, initially I did not make any claim as to the reason why such couples might have a higher divorce rate.  I merely mentioned I thought it interesting that they did.  My remark regarding the sun rising etc etc was in response to sheepstache and was merely my musings on what "might be" the cause of this interesting claim.

sheepstache

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #31 on: June 25, 2013, 09:06:43 AM »
Yeah I guess what I should have said is that it might mean that.  Oh wait, I did.
Oh ok.  Didn't realise you were simply randomly stating things it "might be" not based on anything related to the data set.

It could also be because the sun rises in the east, the sky is blue, the wind blows or maybe because the people without the pre-nup work harder at keeping their relationship one in which they want to stay.

Who's to say hey?

This seems to have irritated you and I don't see why.  It seemed natural that people might infer that "maybe [...] the people without the pre-nup work harder at keeping their relationship one in which they want to stay," which, as you know, isn't something you can extrapolate from the data set.  (You did, however, mention it in the context of a list of things that are obviously true so I don't know if you meant to imply something by association there.)  Specifically, people in the thread have referred to divorce as a "threat" and to pre-nups as an "escape plan."  So I wanted to bring up the other possible interpretation.

If you feel more comfortable in clinical terms because they make you feel like the discussion is more erudite or safe, I could use those.  I "extrapolated" that people might infer this from the "data set" of the thread.

Reading back  over the thread I realize limeandpepper already made this point.  So. Hey.

PKFFW

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #32 on: June 25, 2013, 02:26:21 PM »
This seems to have irritated you and I don't see why.  It seemed natural that people might infer that "maybe [...] the people without the pre-nup work harder at keeping their relationship one in which they want to stay," which, as you know, isn't something you can extrapolate from the data set.  (You did, however, mention it in the context of a list of things that are obviously true so I don't know if you meant to imply something by association there.)  Specifically, people in the thread have referred to divorce as a "threat" and to pre-nups as an "escape plan."  So I wanted to bring up the other possible interpretation.
What irritated me was your somewhat snarky response to my pointing out that your extrapolation was just an assumption.

As for mentioning it in a list of things that are obviously true, there was no intent to imply it was also obviously true.  The list was merely meant to show things that had nothing whatever to do with the data set which might also have something to do with the reason.
Quote from: sheepstache
If you feel more comfortable in clinical terms because they make you feel like the discussion is more erudite or safe, I could use those.  I "extrapolated" that people might infer this from the "data set" of the thread.

Reading back  over the thread I realize limeandpepper already made this point.  So. Hey.
It had nothing to do with wanting the discussion to be safe and erudite.

sheepstache

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #33 on: June 25, 2013, 02:54:18 PM »

What irritated me was your somewhat snarky response to my pointing out that your extrapolation was just an assumption.


Apparently not snarky enough to get it through your head that I never presented it as an extrapolation.

PKFFW

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #34 on: June 25, 2013, 09:11:36 PM »
Apparently not snarky enough to get it through your head that I never presented it as an extrapolation.
Or perhaps your desire to be rude overrides your ability to make yourself understood.

For the record;

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/extrapolation
Quote from: sheepstache
An alternate way of looking it would be that those who go in without an escape plan show a smaller tendency to get out.  Which might mean they're staying in miserable marriages out of fear of the financial ramifications.
bold mine

Certainly seems like an extrapolation to me.  You stated what it "might mean", which is clearly an estimation following on from the known data.

So "oh wait!", the fact you used the word might doesn't make it any less an extrapolation.

limeandpepper

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #35 on: June 25, 2013, 09:18:00 PM »
Extrapolation, assumption, who cares? PKFFW, if you're going to post "a couple of interesting things to think about" (without citation, I may add), then expect people to discuss it. It almost sounds like you don't want discussion, or the discussion is not to your liking.

expatartist

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #36 on: June 25, 2013, 09:56:36 PM »
Back to the point made by the OP.

This:
Quote
If I had to give one piece of advice to a young person, it wouldn't be to give up your clown car, or take your lunch to work, or to turn back your thermostat. My one biggest piece of advice to give would be to marry well.

and this:

Quote
So, watch out for:
- be very, very wary of marrying too young,
- of assuming the statistics don't apply to you, because you're special,
- of letting time, other priorities, and routine, destroy that most special thing. Your relationship with your life partner.

 The effective ROI of a successful marriage ( or second marriage) is very impressive. Work at it.

are gems of advice.

There is more to life than $ but you must agree on the fundamentals. And never take your partner for granted.

sheepstache

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #37 on: June 25, 2013, 10:01:59 PM »
For fuck's sake whatever you want to call it, the fact that you're accusing me of making an assumption when I never suggested otherwise. 

If I claim something to be fact that is in fact an assumption and you point this out, then I welcome the correction.  Or if you have further information or better reasoning about why this could not be a potential interpretation, the same.  If you happen to have an alternate explanation, cool.  If you merely point out that something I clearly identified as a possibility rather than a fact is in fact a possibility and not a fact, then you seem to be playing the part of captain obvious.  Underlining the fact that I wasn't claiming my interpretation as fact was the nicest way I could have responded.

You made an assumption too when you called it an "escape plan."  You even called that "a way of looking at it." 
Furthermore, initially I did not make any claim as to the reason why such couples might have a higher divorce rate.  I merely mentioned I thought it interesting that they did.
Which is bull because couching it in the terms "those who go into a marital relationship with an escape plan all made out ahead of time" is the most biased thing I've heard since I heard the school voucher program called "the equal opportunity education program" and I'll be damned if I'll sit here and listen to you bitch and moan about my interpreting things when all I'm doing is offering my own interpretation in response to yours XD 

sheepstache

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #38 on: June 25, 2013, 10:25:22 PM »
The thing is that the statistics are skewed. If you actually look at who gets divorced the most, and why, you can tackle those issues up-front and reduce your likelihood of divorce by a huge factor. A big factor is the age at which you and your spouse get married--if you do it before age 25, your odds of getting divorced are much higher: http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1989124,00.html

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"According to research at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, one of the clearest predictors of whether wedding vows will stick is the age of the people saying them. Take the '80s: a full 81% of college graduates who got hitched in that decade at age 26 or older were still married 20 years later. Only 65% of college grads who said I do before their 26th birthday made it that far."

Thrifty/frugal couples and those with a good savings cushion are even less likely to divorce than the general population, likely because disagreements about money are a huge reason people get divorced: http://www.stateofourunions.org/2009/bank_on_it.php

Interesting.  I had read that one of the biggest reasons the 50% figure was skewed was because it included numbers for all ages.  So you have people who got married in the 50s and 60s who experienced a major reinterpretation of what marriage is.  So my understanding was that simply by getting married now, in the modern day, your odds were better.  I mean, I knew demographics were important but googling around in response to your post I see that demographics is the major player and some groups still have divorce rates well about 50%.  So, wait, get educated, get money, and try not to be part of a racial minority if you can help it.

PKFFW

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #39 on: June 26, 2013, 02:29:58 AM »
Extrapolation, assumption, who cares? PKFFW, if you're going to post "a couple of interesting things to think about" (without citation, I may add), then expect people to discuss it. It almost sounds like you don't want discussion, or the discussion is not to your liking.
I welcome discussion.  I dislike snarky responses.  I especially dislike it when people then resort to outright rudeness whilst at the same time either being wilfully dishonest or unintentionally ignorant.

PKFFW

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #40 on: June 26, 2013, 02:41:52 AM »
Are you completely unable to discuss issues politely or do you simply lack the vocabulary to adequately express yourself without resorting to rudeness?

For fuck's sake whatever you want to call it, the fact that you're accusing me of making an assumption when I never suggested otherwise. 

If I claim something to be fact that is in fact an assumption and you point this out, then I welcome the correction.  Or if you have further information or better reasoning about why this could not be a potential interpretation, the same.  If you happen to have an alternate explanation, cool.  If you merely point out that something I clearly identified as a possibility rather than a fact is in fact a possibility and not a fact, then you seem to be playing the part of captain obvious.  Underlining the fact that I wasn't claiming my interpretation as fact was the nicest way I could have responded.

I did not point out you made an assumption.  I pointed out your assumption was not supported by the data set under discussion.

Quote from: sheepstache
You made an assumption too when you called it an "escape plan."  You even called that "a way of looking at it."

Which is bull because couching it in the terms "those who go into a marital relationship with an escape plan all made out ahead of time" is the most biased thing I've heard since I heard the school voucher program called "the equal opportunity education program" and I'll be damned if I'll sit here and listen to you bitch and moan about my interpreting things when all I'm doing is offering my own interpretation in response to yours XD

Being a fire fighter I know the value of an escape plan in case of fire.  I have one at home and I suggest all my friends and family have one too.  Having an escape plan in case of fire does not mean I assume a fire is going to happen though.

Stating a couple with a pre-nup has an escape plan is no different.  Stating they have an escape plan is not making any sort of assumption that they will divorce or about the reasons why they may divorce.  Do you understand the difference?

As for it being biased, perhaps it is.  Stating something in an arguably biased way is not the same as extrapolating unfounded reasons for something though.

limeandpepper

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #41 on: June 26, 2013, 03:32:19 AM »
Extrapolation, assumption, who cares? PKFFW, if you're going to post "a couple of interesting things to think about" (without citation, I may add), then expect people to discuss it. It almost sounds like you don't want discussion, or the discussion is not to your liking.
I welcome discussion.  I dislike snarky responses.  I especially dislike it when people then resort to outright rudeness whilst at the same time either being wilfully dishonest or unintentionally ignorant.

Okay, fair enough. It does seem like you may have a bias against pre-nups though, and that is colouring the way you respond to the discussion.

For what it's worth, 1) wouldn't affect my thoughts as to whether people should get a pre-nup or not - I think couples should do what they feel work for them, and people shouldn't be judged for getting a pre-nup if it was a well-thought-out decision for them. As for 2) that is a more practical issue worth thinking about, but again I see no harm if people go ahead with pre-nups despite the chances of it being void, if there is still the chance it could provide some form of safety net.

Anyway, I think people should consider their options and do what they think is best. E.g. there is a correlation for arranged marriages and substantially lower divorce rates, but I'm certainly not hurrying to get myself an arranged marriage anytime soon. ;)

PKFFW

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #42 on: June 26, 2013, 06:27:39 AM »
Okay, fair enough. It does seem like you may have a bias against pre-nups though, and that is colouring the way you respond to the discussion.

For what it's worth, 1) wouldn't affect my thoughts as to whether people should get a pre-nup or not - I think couples should do what they feel work for them, and people shouldn't be judged for getting a pre-nup if it was a well-thought-out decision for them. As for 2) that is a more practical issue worth thinking about, but again I see no harm if people go ahead with pre-nups despite the chances of it being void, if there is still the chance it could provide some form of safety net.

Anyway, I think people should consider their options and do what they think is best. E.g. there is a correlation for arranged marriages and substantially lower divorce rates, but I'm certainly not hurrying to get myself an arranged marriage anytime soon. ;)
I don't think I have have any particular feelings towards pre-nups one way or the other really.  At least not ones strong enough to affect the way I respond to polite discussion regarding them.

I agree that people should carefully consider their options and do what they think is best for their particular situation.  Part of considering if it is the right thing for them would include, I would contest, considering what the statistics might mean and what might be behind them.  Having said that, it is true that stats can be interesting but no one can say if they will apply to any one particular person or couple.  I certainly wouldn't judge anyone in any way for choosing to get a pre-nup.

On point number 2, I've done a little reading regarding their validity there in the USA as compared to here in Australia.  I must admit that in many states in the USA it seems a pre-nup would have a much stronger chance of being upheld regardless of its contents, conditions, fairness and in some cases even its legality in consideration of other laws.  So from a legal standpoint if one can get the other person to sign a pre-nup in those states then it probably makes sense to do so.  Here in NSW, Australia, a pre-nup is almost entirely open to enforcement or setting aside by the court.

Your point about pre-arranged marriages is interesting.  Such arrangements are almost exclusively seen within cultures that have a history of such things though.  I would think the cultural conditioning and acceptance of such arrangements would play a large part in the reason why such marriages have a lower rate of divorce.  It would be interesting to see if the divorce rate for arranged marriages outside of such cultures(if there is even a statisically significant number of such marriages) also have a lower divorce rate.

DoubleDown

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #43 on: June 26, 2013, 02:18:33 PM »
For anyone with significant assets or earning potential, then going into a marriage without a prenup is like rolling the dice in Vegas. Roll a 7 or 11 (good marriage that makes it), you get nothing, just keep your original assets. Roll a 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10 (bad marriage that ends without too much animosity), you lose just half your possessions and future earnings. Roll a craps (bad marriage that ends in fights over children and assets), you lose everything you have. There is no "win" financially speaking -- best case, you come out with what you went in.

Or maybe loaning $1 million to a person who is openly hostile to you, and if a discussion of maybe having a written loan agreement or contract comes up, just shrugging and saying, "Nah, I'm sure you're good for it."

MrsPete

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #44 on: July 02, 2013, 08:09:38 AM »
So, watch out for:
- be very, very wary of marrying too young,
- of assuming the statistics don't apply to you, because you're special,
- of letting time, other priorities, and routine, destroy that most special thing. Your relationship with your life partner.
Good advice.  I'll expand it a bit:

- Don't live together before marriage; while people like to claim it's a "practice period", statistics say that it increases your chances of divorce.  I know that when my husband and I moved in together the day after our wedding, it seemed magical.  I'm sure that if we'd lived together previously, some of that would've been gone -- to some extent, it would've been just another Monday.  I've known lots of couples who moved in together "on different pages"; in a typical situation, it seems that women who moved in with their boyfriends, see the arrangement as very temporary -- they anticipated that marriage will follow swiftly.  Often as not, their boyfriends had no such ideas.  All too often, these arrangements work well for a while, but then the women become demanding because they think the "trial period" has passed, and it's time for a ring, whereas the man had no idea that living together wasn't the goal. 

- Be the spouse you want to have.  Go out of your way each and every day to do something nice for your husband or wife -- this doesn't mean just being supportive in the big things.  It's the little things that matter so much:  Rent a movie that you know he'll like and scratch his back while he watches it.  Make Mexican for dinner (even though you don't love it yourself) because it's his favorite.  When you do these things, you get them back in return, and who wouldn't want a spouse who's loving and giving?

- Be forgiving.  In a lifetime together, you're going to need forgiveness often enough yourself.  Be quick to give it in return.

- Cultivate shared hobbies.  When you were dating, you sought out things you could enjoy together.  Don't stop now.  These are bonding experiences.  You need to do more than sit on the sofa watching TV with your spouse. 

- Put your spouse before the children.  This is particularly hard for women, but it's necessary.  I don't mean you shouldn't take care of the children's needs, which are often immediate and important, but remember that children shouldn't grow up believing they're the center of the universe.  They do need to feel that they're a part of a secure family unit, and they do need to see an example of a positive marriage. 

- Live within your means -- no matter how meager they may seem.  Money won't make you happy, but debt and the stress that ensues from debt will absolutely make you miserable. 


 

SnackDog

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #45 on: July 02, 2013, 08:59:30 AM »
I would add - persevere!!  All marriages hit difficult times which try everyone involved.  Most people seem to take the attitude that if it is too difficult, they can just give up.  Don't give up!  Make it work.  In the long run you will be much better off working things out and staying together.

Mr Mark

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #46 on: July 02, 2013, 10:39:54 AM »
It would-be great if some lawyers could offer avenues to protect family wealth, like trusts. Not so much to protect ones own assets, but to best preserve the family's.

I did find this good advice, from     http://www.lodmell.com/asset-protection-divorce 


Quote
..
The best advice I can give anyone facing a divorce after witnessing many, many cases is to not submit yourself to the interests of divorce lawyers and courts at all. Both spouses lose in a long and hard-fought case and in the end the only winners are the divorce attorneys who have been billing the whole time. If the marriage is truly over, find out what the law says about the division of property, divide the estate using that as a guideline and do it yourselves. Not only will you both save a significant amount of legal fees, but likely come through it emotionally much better as well.


Maybe someone has done a low cost mustashian divorce?

ace1224

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #47 on: July 02, 2013, 11:10:02 AM »
just don't get married.....shack up instead ;)

limeandpepper

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #48 on: July 03, 2013, 06:41:00 AM »
just don't get married.....shack up instead ;)

I agree. Statistics show that 100% of the people who don't get married have a 0% rate of divorce. :D

But P.S. Shacking up may not work either, as in some places that seems to eventually lead you to a de facto status whether you like it or not, legally speaking.

brand new stash

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Re: the biggest threat to FIRE? what about divorce?
« Reply #49 on: July 03, 2013, 08:03:22 AM »
just don't get married.....shack up instead ;)

That's horrible advice.   Shacking up, especially with kids, is almost the risks of divorce (financial, child support, splitting of things to two households, pretty much everything except alimony), but with none of the stability of marriage.   Yes, marriages fail, but shacking up fails at a much much higher rate.

A good marriage is wonderful, you are a team working together and have each others back.  A bad marriage is horrible, but don't write off all marriages because some are bad.