Tariff Insanity

[deborah]

The list of tariffs is astounding. Places that are part of the US are being tariffed, HEARD AND MACDONALD ISLANDS are targeted (these are uninhabited islands that are part of Australia, and have an exclusion zone because they are a pristine world heritage site - they’ve only been visited a few hundred times in recorded history, the last time was ten years ago). Norfolk Island, which is part of Australia has a tariff of 29%.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/03/donald-trump-tariffs-antarctica-uninhabited-heard-mcdonald-islands

[theninthwall]

So I like Lego. I now need to pay a 20% tariff on my Lego, for which there is no other comparable product(anyone who says Mega Bloks needs to leave right now.

This is a f’ing TAX!

[GuitarStv]

This is a f’ing TAX!

Yes.  Tariffs are tax.  Any economist alive could have told you that, long before Trump was elected.  This shouldn't have been a surprise for anyone.

[theninthwall]

I realize that, I’m just saying it louder because it makes me feel better.

This is a f’ing TAX!

Yes.  Tariffs are tax.  Any economist alive could have told you that, long before Trump was elected.  This shouldn't have been a surprise for anyone.

[NorCal]

This is a f’ing TAX!

Yes.  Tariffs are tax.  Any economist alive could have told you that, long before Trump was elected.  This shouldn't have been a surprise for anyone.

I suspect this is part of the plan. The few Republicans paying attention to things more than 10 days out realize the massive fiscal hole they are in starting in 2026.

Many parts of the 2018 Trump tax cuts were temporary and expire at the end of this year. The corporate tax cuts were mostly permanent, but the tax cuts that apply to individuals expire.  Most of the benefit applied to those in higher income brackets.

Congress needs to come up with roughly $4T in 10 years savings just to keep tax rates where they are today.

I believe this is the underlying motivation for DOGE and tariffs. Congress would never vote to gut USAID or implement tariffs on their own. But Trump is betting Congress will vote to put his actions into law after the fact.

All of this is designed to make sure billionaires taxes don’t go back to where they were in 2018.

[sixwings]

This is a f’ing TAX!

Yes.  Tariffs are tax.  Any economist alive could have told you that, long before Trump was elected.  This shouldn't have been a surprise for anyone.

I suspect this is part of the plan. The few Republicans paying attention to things more than 10 days out realize the massive fiscal hole they are in starting in 2026.

Many parts of the 2018 Trump tax cuts were temporary and expire at the end of this year. The corporate tax cuts were mostly permanent, but the tax cuts that apply to individuals expire.  Most of the benefit applied to those in higher income brackets.

Congress needs to come up with roughly $4T in 10 years savings just to keep tax rates where they are today.

I believe this is the underlying motivation for DOGE and tariffs. Congress would never vote to gut USAID or implement tariffs on their own. But Trump is betting Congress will vote to put his actions into law after the fact.

All of this is designed to make sure billionaires taxes don’t go back to where they were in 2018.

Stop this, there is very clearly no plan here, don’t try to normalize what’s happening and that there’s some big brain that has a plan. This is just plain stupidity. They aren’t trying to make up a deficit or that there’s any fiscal responsibility. The country is just led by straight up morons who don’t know what a tariff is, what a trade deficit is, or anything. They are tariffing places that are part of the US, that have no inhabitants, there is no plan or anything even remotely intelligent about this. Fox News is now saying that people are just going to have to pay more and that’s patriotic, it’s all very and completely utterly just stupid.

It’s just complete and utter madness and stupidity and that is who/what is running the United States. There has never been an administration this cruel, corrupt and utterly stupid in history. There is no plan, it’s simply a dementia addled moron calling all the shots based on whatever stupid idea comes through his mushy brain. Don’t normalize what’s going on with some kind of rationalization that they are actually just trying to figure out how to spend responsibly, it’s not what’s very clearly happening. Call it for what it is, madness.

[Travis]

Their insane calculation on how much to tariff left off services that we export.

https://x.com/JamesSurowiecki/status/1907564123862257863

Since Trump just took a list of territories out of a book and tariffed them all, French possessions (part of the EU) and the EU itself were awarded separate tariff percentages.

https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:llvz25fk4agau6pf44orcdcm/post/3llumwxl2sk2n?ref_src=embed

Re: there is no plan:
The Treasury Secretary (really just Tweedle Dee) doesn't understand that there's no such thing as a 100% American car and there never will be again.

https://x.com/atrupar/status/1907602030710890556


https://vxtwitter.com/thestalwart/status/1907607067319296191?s=46&t=bCU_uuG2_Zv_VBt1spLs_A

And the Commerce Secretary (Tweedle Dumb) arguing that Europe doesn't import our livestock because its "strong" and there's no reason why American workers can't manufacture appliances and t-shirts.

https://x.com/atrupar/status/1907604332079394838

I don't think a single day has gone by since inauguration that these two haven't spent half the day in interviews just being Trump's cheerleaders and they have no idea what's going on here. It's like they're not even in the room where these things are being discussed.

[bacchi]

And the Commerce Secretary (Tweedle Dumb) arguing that Europe doesn't import our livestock because its "strong" and there's no reason why American workers can't manufacture appliances and t-shirts.

https://x.com/atrupar/status/1907604332079394838

Lol. Our beef is beautiful and their beef is weak. Is he really that stupid or does he think Fox viewers are that stupid?

There is some Trump channelling going on. "Everyone is saying...that Europeans don't like beautiful beef."

Either way, A+ for coping skills.

[Fomerly known as something]

What exactly is Trump's end game here? Devalue the American dollar to make exports more attractive and bring jobs back to the U.S.? Seems like a pretty risky play

Actually I listed to a podcast where this was the point.  Apparently the strong US dollar leads to the trade imbalance which is bad for some in places like the political appointees of Treasury Department.  I think it was the Money for the Rest of Us podcast by David Stein from March 12 titled “Tariffs and the Mar-a-lago accord what trump really wants.”

[41_swish]

President Trump this afternoon.

[kei te pai]

So, who ‘wins’ out of all this?

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/on-the-inside/557085/new-modelling-reveals-full-impact-of-trump-s-liberation-day-tariffs-with-the-us-hit-hardest.

[Wolfpack Mustachian]

So, who ‘wins’ out of all this?

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/on-the-inside/557085/new-modelling-reveals-full-impact-of-trump-s-liberation-day-tariffs-with-the-us-hit-hardest.

We all do! It's just that sacrificing our standard of living, safety, and lives for the regime is now winning!

[MarcherLady]

So, who ‘wins’ out of all this?

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/on-the-inside/557085/new-modelling-reveals-full-impact-of-trump-s-liberation-day-tariffs-with-the-us-hit-hardest.

Really interesting piece, @kei te pai, thanks for sharing. Our gov't has been saying for days that they wouldn't retaliate and I've been fuming at their cowardice (as well as generally fuming, but that's another post). Seems like it might be the most sensible approach for us after all.

[sixwings]

So, who ‘wins’ out of all this?

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/on-the-inside/557085/new-modelling-reveals-full-impact-of-trump-s-liberation-day-tariffs-with-the-us-hit-hardest.

Really interesting piece, @kei te pai, thanks for sharing. Our gov't has been saying for days that they wouldn't retaliate and I've been fuming at their cowardice (as well as generally fuming, but that's another post). Seems like it might be the most sensible approach for us after all.

A good retaliation is to follow Canada and start boycotting everything American, cancel all american travel, and encourage your friends to do the same. Get the movement going in the UK and Europe too. Trump seems to think that manufacturing is the only industry in existence in America, but tourism is also a major industry and we have complete control over that.

Welcome to the resistance!

[PeteD01]

Nailed it:

'When empires fall': British columnist aghast at 'single stupidest thing' Trump has done
Brad Reed
April 3, 2025

"This might be the single stupidest thing any of us will ever see," Dunt argued. "It is stupid in every way: presentationally, intellectually, politically, methodologically, morally and of course economically. The word stupid doesn’t really suffice for the full level of idiocy we’ve now reached."
Dunt found himself particularly appalled by the chart that Trump showed that contained wildly inflated figures about the tariffs foreign nations slap on American products.

"It looked like something out of US daytime television – those garish cheaply produced shows where you can win a cash prize if you spin a wheel," he remarked. "You half expected a showgirl to appear behind the American flags, draped over a tariff quota rate. That’s what he is really: a cheap knock-off daytime TV presenter."

https://www.rawstory.com/trump-recession-2671669265/

[mtnrider]

The list of tariffs is astounding. Places that are part of the US are being tariffed, HEARD AND MACDONALD ISLANDS are targeted (these are uninhabited islands that are part of Australia, and have an exclusion zone because they are a pristine world heritage site - they’ve only been visited a few hundred times in recorded history, the last time was ten years ago). Norfolk Island, which is part of Australia has a tariff of 29%.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/03/donald-trump-tariffs-antarctica-uninhabited-heard-mcdonald-islands

One of my colleagues: of course those uninhabited Australian islands are taxed.  They're populated only by woke penguins who are half black and half white, and the males and females take turns sitting on the nests.

What is the sorting they used for this list? 

It seems like they spent more time on graphic design than the algorithm?

Is Taiwan recognized as a country now?

Why are only goods, and not services, considered?

Etc...  The whole thing is so slipshod.

There's obviously something else going on.

[sixwings]

The list of tariffs is astounding. Places that are part of the US are being tariffed, HEARD AND MACDONALD ISLANDS are targeted (these are uninhabited islands that are part of Australia, and have an exclusion zone because they are a pristine world heritage site - they’ve only been visited a few hundred times in recorded history, the last time was ten years ago). Norfolk Island, which is part of Australia has a tariff of 29%.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/03/donald-trump-tariffs-antarctica-uninhabited-heard-mcdonald-islands

One of my colleagues: of course those uninhabited Australian islands are taxed.  They're populated only by woke penguins who are half black and half white, and the males and females take turns sitting on the nests.

What is the sorting they used for this list? 

It seems like they spent more time on graphic design than the algorithm?

Is Taiwan recognized as a country now?

Why are only goods, and not services, considered?

Etc...  The whole thing is so slipshod.

There's obviously something else going on.

Don't normalize this, there's nothing else going on. This administration is just this straight up stupid and conservatives should be deeply ashamed of the incompetence of the people they put in power.

[mtnrider]

President Trump this afternoon.

Paul Krugman agrees: https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/will-careless-stupidity-kill-the

Who makes policy this way? The key point is that Trump isn’t really trying to accomplish economic goals. This should all be seen as a dominance display, intended to shock and awe people and make them grovel, rather than policy in the normal sense.

It's a quick and easy read.  He also points out that AI LLMs all produce the Trump "algorithm" when asked how to produce tariffs.  Another case in point.  Don't rely on LLMs.

[mtnrider]

The list of tariffs is astounding. Places that are part of the US are being tariffed, HEARD AND MACDONALD ISLANDS are targeted (these are uninhabited islands that are part of Australia, and have an exclusion zone because they are a pristine world heritage site - they’ve only been visited a few hundred times in recorded history, the last time was ten years ago). Norfolk Island, which is part of Australia has a tariff of 29%.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/03/donald-trump-tariffs-antarctica-uninhabited-heard-mcdonald-islands

One of my colleagues: of course those uninhabited Australian islands are taxed.  They're populated only by woke penguins who are half black and half white, and the males and females take turns sitting on the nests.

What is the sorting they used for this list? 

It seems like they spent more time on graphic design than the algorithm?

Is Taiwan recognized as a country now?

Why are only goods, and not services, considered?

Etc...  The whole thing is so slipshod.

There's obviously something else going on.

Don't normalize this, there's nothing else going on. This administration is just this straight up stupid and conservatives should be deeply ashamed of the incompetence of the people they put in power.

It can be both.  As Krugman put it (above) "malignant stupidity".  A stupid man, angry at the world, can lash out in all directions hoping to bring everyone down to his level.

[MrGreen]

The list of tariffs is astounding. Places that are part of the US are being tariffed, HEARD AND MACDONALD ISLANDS are targeted (these are uninhabited islands that are part of Australia, and have an exclusion zone because they are a pristine world heritage site - they’ve only been visited a few hundred times in recorded history, the last time was ten years ago). Norfolk Island, which is part of Australia has a tariff of 29%.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/03/donald-trump-tariffs-antarctica-uninhabited-heard-mcdonald-islands

One of my colleagues: of course those uninhabited Australian islands are taxed.  They're populated only by woke penguins who are half black and half white, and the males and females take turns sitting on the nests.

What is the sorting they used for this list? 

It seems like they spent more time on graphic design than the algorithm?

Is Taiwan recognized as a country now?

Why are only goods, and not services, considered?

Etc...  The whole thing is so slipshod.

There's obviously something else going on.

There is evidence to suggest they simply used the list of countries from the CIA Factbook and the number they used from foreign countries to determine the tarrifs applied aren't existing tarrifs percentages at all, rather the trade defecit with that country divided by the number of imports, then cut in half. So basically elementary school-level logic. We should expect many of the decisions made over the next four years to have no higher level thinking than this.

[mtnrider]

There is evidence to suggest they simply used the list of countries from the CIA Factbook and the number they used from foreign countries to determine the tarrifs applied aren't existing tarrifs percentages at all, rather the trade defecit with that country divided by the number of imports, then cut in half. So basically elementary school-level logic. We should expect many of the decisions made over the next four years to have no higher level thinking than this.

Exactly.  Again from Krugman's substack:

Where is this stuff coming from? One of these days we’ll probably get the full story, but it looks to me like something thrown together by a junior staffer with only a couple of hours’ notice. That USTR note, in particular, reads like something written by a student who hasn’t done the reading and is trying to bullshit their way through an exam.

[Travis]

Oil pipeline costs skyrocketing. Who'd a thunk?

https://bsky.app/profile/peark.es/post/3llw5i45ekc2f

Whirlpool laying off workers in Iowa due to tariffs, 12 hours after Lutnick complained "why should South Korea be the one to make all the appliances."

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/money/business/2025/04/01/whirlpool-layoffs-amana-iowa-plant-losing-one-third-of-workforce/82757127007/

Stellantis laying off a few hundred workers

https://x.com/idreesali114/status/1907794569149775971?s=46

Actual tariffs of some of the countries on the list (what they tariff on us).

https://x.com/projectliberal/status/1907795363118899585?s=46

[Stasher]

A good retaliation is to follow Canada and start boycotting everything American, cancel all american travel, and encourage your friends to do the same. Get the movement going in the UK and Europe too. Trump seems to think that manufacturing is the only industry in existence in America, but tourism is also a major industry and we have complete control over that.

Welcome to the resistance!

All of my network of friends have cancelled every single idea of going to the US and all have started boycotting American products. I also just dropped my first US brand from my business with my future prebook orders and have shifted those planned inventory dollars equally to an Australian company and a Canadian company.

Secondly, now that everyone just got nailed with the Orange Pumpkin Tax, hopefully they stand up and join us in Canada for standing up, fighting back and growing alliances and trade elsewhere. Watching the alienation and economic downslide of the Unites States is mind blowing. Glad I 100% divested all my US Stock Market ETF indexes in March as why would I keep funds in a country trying to annex me and destroy me? Happy to put all that money into EU and Global Ex US.

[RetiredAt63]

The rest of the world is adjusting to the reality of an unreliable trading partner and ally.  No matter what happens in the next few days/weeks/months, the reality is that the US could do this again at any point. The isolationist tendency and and anti-intellectual attitude has been  part of the US for a long long time.  It weakens at times but never goes away.

The US sat out most of both WWI and WW2.

If it weren't for Sputnik the US would never have gone to space. The motivating factor was cold war competition and horror at the thought of the USSR being on the moon.  Not any scientific desire. Science education has always been contentious.

[Travis]

Examples of tariffs already hitting various markets

https://archive.li/N2BGo

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/04/03/trump-tariffs-price-hikes-clothing-cars-coffee/

[MrGreen]

Examples of tariffs already hitting various markets

https://archive.li/N2BGo

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/04/03/trump-tariffs-price-hikes-clothing-cars-coffee/

The funny thing is with many stores having switched to electronically-controlled price tags due to the COVID supply shocks, they're already in position to immediately raise prices. So there's no confusion about why that TV yesterday is now 25% more today. Maybe this will help drive home the "tarrifs are bad" reality for consumers who don't yet get it.

[Travis]

Examples of tariffs already hitting various markets

https://archive.li/N2BGo

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/04/03/trump-tariffs-price-hikes-clothing-cars-coffee/

The funny thing is with many stores having switched to electronically-controlled price tags due to the COVID supply shocks, they're already in position to immediately raise prices. So there's no confusion about why that TV yesterday is now 25% more today. Maybe this will help drive home the "tarrifs are bad" reality for consumers who don't yet get it.

Nintendo increased the price of their new Switch console by $200 in real time. It went from like $400 on their website to $600 or so within minutes of the tariff announcements.

[salt cured]

Examples of tariffs already hitting various markets

https://archive.li/N2BGo

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/04/03/trump-tariffs-price-hikes-clothing-cars-coffee/

The funny thing is with many stores having switched to electronically-controlled price tags due to the COVID supply shocks, they're already in position to immediately raise prices. So there's no confusion about why that TV yesterday is now 25% more today. Maybe this will help drive home the "tarrifs are bad" reality for consumers who don't yet get it.

Nintendo increased the price of their new Switch console by $200 in real time. It went from like $400 on their website to $600 or so within minutes of the tariff announcements.

I'm seeing it still at $449, which is the price they announced early Wednesday.

[BNgarden]

Sorry Canada, you are about to be freedom-ed.  Insert eagle [red-tail hawk- screech sound. Fixed that for you! I wish I was joking. [I am not joking.]

[Poundwise]

Apparently Fox News turned off their stock ticker!

[ysette9]

To make the decision to on-shore manufacturing you have to believe there is long-term or at least mid-term policy stability. It takes time and investment to move factories, and you do that when the numbers make sense. Businesses don't invest when regulatory and financial markets are unstable, because a decision that looks good today could be a terrible idea if tariff rates change, interest rates are different, etc.

The previous comment about Apple moving manufacturing out of China: my impression from briefly working in the industry is that the tariffs were a factor, but perhaps a larger factor of moving some manufacturing out of China was that labor there has been getting more expensive as the workforce runs out of an endless supply of young workers due to the one-child policy moving through the demographic pipeline. The growth in China has meant that a lot of people have been moved out of poverty, which translates into fewer people being willing to work the fairly crappy assembly line jobs that assemble components into laptops and cell phones. It is an unattractive enough job that I was told to expect 100% turnover in a year on those assembly lines.

[rocketpj]

I find it really funny that they have imposed tariffs on The British Indian Ocean Territory, the sole occupants being the US and British Military personnel stationed at Diego Garcia. 

Woohoo, MAGA, tariffs on your own soldiers.  Clearly a carefully considered, well though out policy platform with clear reasons and goals.  Of course they meant to tariff their own people.  Of course, of course, Trump and his people know that is where many of the nuclear bombers are stationed. 

What a clown show.

[ZiziPB]

I find it really funny that they have imposed tariffs on The British Indian Ocean Territory, the sole occupants being the US and British Military personnel stationed at Diego Garcia. 

Woohoo, MAGA, tariffs on your own soldiers.  Clearly a carefully considered, well though out policy platform with clear reasons and goals.  Of course they meant to tariff their own people.  Of course, of course, Trump and his people know that is where many of the nuclear bombers are stationed. 

What a clown show.

Yup, and at the same time, no tariffs on Russia, Belarus or North Korea.  And everyone just glosses over that. 

BBC says: "According to the Office of the US Trade Representative, the US imported goods from Russia worth $3.5bn (£2.7bn) in 2024. It mainly consisted of fertilisers, nuclear fuel and some metals, according to Trading Economics and Russian media."

[ChpBstrd]

Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" are set to target countries based on "non-tariff factors":

Trump’s team factored in a wide array of practices into its calculations, from currency manipulation to things like value-added taxes to export subsidies to technical barriers to agricultural constraints.

"Tariffs are customized to each country," a senior administration official told reporters, saying it was "based on the concept that the trade deficit that we have with any given country is the sum of all the unfair trade practices, the sum of all cheating."

So basically, they started with each country's trade deficit, and worked backward from there on the assumption that whatever policy differences existed were unfair trade barriers. The assumption is that trade with every country in the world would have a zero deficit or surplus if they weren't doing something unfair. Somebody slept through the fish-and-coconuts illustration in Econ 101.

Trump will raise tariffs to a higher level than the Smoot-Hawtley tariffs of Great Depression fame. They're going from about 3% to about 29%. Expect similar price increases.

It's fair to ask whether this policy could end the US dollar's reign as world reserve currency. BRICS Pay is having a conference this summer which may include the announcement of a competitor to SWIFT. A drop in the use of US dollars as the unit of worldwide trade would itself mark the beginning of the end of the US middle class, but throw on 29% tariffs and now we're talking about a period of acute shortages.

[GuitarStv]

I find it really funny that they have imposed tariffs on The British Indian Ocean Territory, the sole occupants being the US and British Military personnel stationed at Diego Garcia. 

Woohoo, MAGA, tariffs on your own soldiers.  Clearly a carefully considered, well though out policy platform with clear reasons and goals.  Of course they meant to tariff their own people.  Of course, of course, Trump and his people know that is where many of the nuclear bombers are stationed. 

What a clown show.

Yup, and at the same time, no tariffs on Russia, Belarus or North Korea.  And everyone just glosses over that. 

BBC says: "According to the Office of the US Trade Representative, the US imported goods from Russia worth $3.5bn (£2.7bn) in 2024. It mainly consisted of fertilisers, nuclear fuel and some metals, according to Trading Economics and Russian media."

Why would you put tariffs on the folks you like and want to bring your country closer to?

[NorCal]

Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" are set to target countries based on "non-tariff factors":

Trump’s team factored in a wide array of practices into its calculations, from currency manipulation to things like value-added taxes to export subsidies to technical barriers to agricultural constraints.

"Tariffs are customized to each country," a senior administration official told reporters, saying it was "based on the concept that the trade deficit that we have with any given country is the sum of all the unfair trade practices, the sum of all cheating."

So basically, they started with each country's trade deficit, and worked backward from there on the assumption that whatever policy differences existed were unfair trade barriers. The assumption is that trade with every country in the world would have a zero deficit or surplus if they weren't doing something unfair. Somebody slept through the fish-and-coconuts illustration in Econ 101.

Trump will raise tariffs to a higher level than the Smoot-Hawtley tariffs of Great Depression fame. They're going from about 3% to about 29%. Expect similar price increases.

It's fair to ask whether this policy could end the US dollar's reign as world reserve currency. BRICS Pay is having a conference this summer which may include the announcement of a competitor to SWIFT. A drop in the use of US dollars as the unit of worldwide trade would itself mark the beginning of the end of the US middle class, but throw on 29% tariffs and now we're talking about a period of acute shortages.

My base case is assuming something of similar magnitude as 2008.  Although it could go further, or stop well before that much damage is caused.

A big difference with 2008 is that some blamed the banks, some blamed Bush, others blamed Obama.  There was plenty of blame to go around with varying levels of plausibility.  There's a single culprit here.  The hardcore MAGA types stay on board, but that's maybe 20-25% of the electorate.

If we start seeing 5%+ unemployment rates combined with 5%+ inflation, even Republican members of Congress will break ranks and vote to end tariffs.  Maybe even vote to impeach.  They will stick with Trump while it's to there benefit of doing so.  They'll break ranks when they see their own jobs on the line.  Which means that if Trump is smart (a questionable proposition), he will backpedal as the damage becomes clear. 

[sixwings]

I dunno I doubt Trump can even backpedal on this. It's his only economic policy, and the way he has talked about it makes retreat very difficult to accomplish without admiting to everyone that he lied and is a general moron. On top of that he's pissed everyone off globally so major concessions are unlikely. Like in his first term it was relatively normal trade issues and so he got concessions from canada and mexico in USMCA and got a much needed update to NAFTA, but this time? Canada is not going to offer concessions. Europe is done with him, Asia is uniting against him, I dunno, I don't think there's a way out of this for Trump, even if he wanted to. Congress will have to act or get demolished in mid terms.

I also don't think the damage will ever be clear to Trump, he lives in his own deranged fantasy world and no one is going to tell him that this is a disaster. Senate republicans didn't take their job of advising and consenting seriously and now there's no one in the administration who can reel this back. Another key difference from 2016, back then he had reasonable rational people who live in reality and had a lot of experience in these things. Now he's literally got Dr. Oz. In terms of trade, lighthizer and greer are MILES apart in competence.

Honestly I'm starting to actually think that the only way out of all this is for the US to collapse. I just don't see how an administration this inept, corrupt and out of touch with reality can result in anything else. On top of that, far too much of the electorate are completely gone from reality. I just don't think the country can function when 30% of it doesn't live in reality anymore. I've been really trying to ignore that option and pretending like it's not a real option but.... I dunno.

[bacchi]

I dunno I doubt Trump can even backpedal on this. It's his only economic policy, and the way he has talked about it makes retreat very difficult to accomplish without admiting to everyone that he lied and is a general moron. On top of that he's pissed everyone off globally so major concessions are unlikely. Like in his first term it was relatively normal trade issues and so he got concessions from canada and mexico in USMCA and got a much needed update to NAFTA, but this time? Canada is not going to offer concessions. Europe is done with him, Asia is uniting against him, I dunno, I don't think there's a way out of this for Trump, even if he wanted to. Congress will have to act or get demolished in mid terms.

I also don't think the damage will ever be clear to Trump, he lives in his own deranged fantasy world and no one is going to tell him that this is a disaster. Senate republicans didn't take their job of advising and consenting seriously and now there's no one in the administration who can reel this back. Another key difference from 2016, back then he had reasonable rational people who live in reality and had a lot of experience in these things. Now he's literally got Dr. Oz. In terms of trade, lighthizer and greer are MILES apart in competence.

Honestly I'm starting to actually think that the only way out of all this is for the US to collapse. I just don't see how an administration this inept, corrupt and out of touch with reality can result in anything else. On top of that, far too much of the electorate are completely gone from reality. I just don't think the country can function when 30% of it doesn't live in reality anymore. I've been really trying to ignore that option and pretending like it's not a real option but.... I dunno.

I'm not as pessimistic. Trump can always start making "deals" like he did with Canada a few weeks ago. He claims concessions were given and the other country does what they were going to do anyway (in this case, Canada re-released the PR for the border increase that was announced last year). This is about Trump's need to be admired and good leaders will work that.

When the GOP fears its other voters more than Trump's MAGA base -- when voters start asking their Congressling to fix inflation and unemployment -- then they turn.

As for the 30%, there's always been a 20-30% contingent in America that's angry and Machiavellian. Look at all the polls done for Nixon over the years -- even years later, ~20% were fine with him breaking into an opposing party's office in order to win.

[Fireball]

The list of tariffs is astounding. Places that are part of the US are being tariffed, HEARD AND MACDONALD ISLANDS are targeted (these are uninhabited islands that are part of Australia, and have an exclusion zone because they are a pristine world heritage site - they’ve only been visited a few hundred times in recorded history, the last time was ten years ago). Norfolk Island, which is part of Australia has a tariff of 29%.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/03/donald-trump-tariffs-antarctica-uninhabited-heard-mcdonald-islands

One of my colleagues: of course those uninhabited Australian islands are taxed.  They're populated only by woke penguins who are half black and half white, and the males and females take turns sitting on the nests.

What is the sorting they used for this list? 

It seems like they spent more time on graphic design than the algorithm?

Is Taiwan recognized as a country now?

Why are only goods, and not services, considered?

Etc...  The whole thing is so slipshod.

There's obviously something else going on.

Don't normalize this, there's nothing else going on. This administration is just this straight up stupid and conservatives should be deeply ashamed of the incompetence of the people they put in power.

Don't underestimate them.  They're intelligent enough to gain control of every branch of government, 2/3 of state governments, legacy media, social media, newspapers, etc. They are incredibly intelligent and capable. You can bet all this chaos is a means to an end. 

[sixwings]

I dunno I doubt Trump can even backpedal on this. It's his only economic policy, and the way he has talked about it makes retreat very difficult to accomplish without admiting to everyone that he lied and is a general moron. On top of that he's pissed everyone off globally so major concessions are unlikely. Like in his first term it was relatively normal trade issues and so he got concessions from canada and mexico in USMCA and got a much needed update to NAFTA, but this time? Canada is not going to offer concessions. Europe is done with him, Asia is uniting against him, I dunno, I don't think there's a way out of this for Trump, even if he wanted to. Congress will have to act or get demolished in mid terms.

I also don't think the damage will ever be clear to Trump, he lives in his own deranged fantasy world and no one is going to tell him that this is a disaster. Senate republicans didn't take their job of advising and consenting seriously and now there's no one in the administration who can reel this back. Another key difference from 2016, back then he had reasonable rational people who live in reality and had a lot of experience in these things. Now he's literally got Dr. Oz. In terms of trade, lighthizer and greer are MILES apart in competence.

Honestly I'm starting to actually think that the only way out of all this is for the US to collapse. I just don't see how an administration this inept, corrupt and out of touch with reality can result in anything else. On top of that, far too much of the electorate are completely gone from reality. I just don't think the country can function when 30% of it doesn't live in reality anymore. I've been really trying to ignore that option and pretending like it's not a real option but.... I dunno.

I'm not as pessimistic. Trump can always start making "deals" like he did with Canada a few weeks ago. He claims concessions were given and the other country does what they were going to do anyway (in this case, Canada re-released the PR for the border increase that was announced last year). This is about Trump's need to be admired and good leaders will work that.

When the GOP fears its other voters more than Trump's MAGA base -- when voters start asking their Congressling to fix inflation and unemployment -- then they turn.

As for the 30%, there's always been a 20-30% contingent in America that's angry and Machiavellian. Look at all the polls done for Nixon over the years -- even years later, ~20% were fine with him breaking into an opposing party's office in order to win.

Trump didn't really make a deal with Canada though, he just got cold feet as canada rallied around the flag. The problem is that the way Trump and his admin have set this up doesn't make for easy concessions. Trumps logic around the tariff rate isn't actually possible to make concessions on because it's not based on their tariff rate, it's based on their trade deficit, so countries like vietnam can't actually make concessions, they already have pretty open trade with the US. It's the same with Europe, their tariff rate on the US is like 2.1% and when technology services are included there's basically no trade deficit, there aren't really concessions or a deal to be made here. SK already has a free trade agreement with the US. Also with the way he's been denigrating allies who would probably have come to the table pretty readily adds another level of difficulty. I mean he literally talked about how allies like Europe, SK and Japan have been raping and pillaging america, which is absolute nonsense. I don't see how the big economies like China/asian bloc and Europe can make a deal that also looks good for them. Europeans don't want their leaders to bend the knee to Trump, they will need to win too, which Trumps rhetoric has made almost impossible to do.

[41_swish]

I really don't get what the play is here. I have tried my hardest to genuinely understand what he is doing. I think it's all about devaluing the U.S. dollar to make exports more attractive and bring jobs back to America. I just don't understand it. Maybe it's because I am not an economist. Who knows?

Is the whole point of this to get us out of the neoliberal highly intertwined globalist economy? What good does that do?

[dividendman]

I really don't get what the play is here. I have tried my hardest to genuinely understand what he is doing. I think it's all about devaluing the U.S. dollar to make exports more attractive and bring jobs back to America. I just don't understand it. Maybe it's because I am not an economist. Who knows?

Is the whole point of this to get us out of the neoliberal highly intertwined globalist economy? What good does that do?

It's as simple as this: the dude is an idiot and nobody around him will tell him "no" this time. That's it.

[mtnrider]

The list of tariffs is astounding. Places that are part of the US are being tariffed, HEARD AND MACDONALD ISLANDS are targeted (these are uninhabited islands that are part of Australia, and have an exclusion zone because they are a pristine world heritage site - they’ve only been visited a few hundred times in recorded history, the last time was ten years ago). Norfolk Island, which is part of Australia has a tariff of 29%.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/03/donald-trump-tariffs-antarctica-uninhabited-heard-mcdonald-islands

One of my colleagues: of course those uninhabited Australian islands are taxed.  They're populated only by woke penguins who are half black and half white, and the males and females take turns sitting on the nests.

What is the sorting they used for this list? 

It seems like they spent more time on graphic design than the algorithm?

Is Taiwan recognized as a country now?

Why are only goods, and not services, considered?

Etc...  The whole thing is so slipshod.

There's obviously something else going on.

Don't normalize this, there's nothing else going on. This administration is just this straight up stupid and conservatives should be deeply ashamed of the incompetence of the people they put in power.

Don't underestimate them.  They're intelligent enough to gain control of every branch of government, 2/3 of state governments, legacy media, social media, newspapers, etc. They are incredibly intelligent and capable. You can bet all this chaos is a means to an end.

To me it seems like there's people with a strategy.  Project 2025.  And there's the Peter Thiel network states group who want to take that even further.

It's just that the MAGAs who got elected and appointed are undisciplined and careless at following through.

[bacchi]

I dunno I doubt Trump can even backpedal on this. It's his only economic policy, and the way he has talked about it makes retreat very difficult to accomplish without admiting to everyone that he lied and is a general moron. On top of that he's pissed everyone off globally so major concessions are unlikely. Like in his first term it was relatively normal trade issues and so he got concessions from canada and mexico in USMCA and got a much needed update to NAFTA, but this time? Canada is not going to offer concessions. Europe is done with him, Asia is uniting against him, I dunno, I don't think there's a way out of this for Trump, even if he wanted to. Congress will have to act or get demolished in mid terms.

I also don't think the damage will ever be clear to Trump, he lives in his own deranged fantasy world and no one is going to tell him that this is a disaster. Senate republicans didn't take their job of advising and consenting seriously and now there's no one in the administration who can reel this back. Another key difference from 2016, back then he had reasonable rational people who live in reality and had a lot of experience in these things. Now he's literally got Dr. Oz. In terms of trade, lighthizer and greer are MILES apart in competence.

Honestly I'm starting to actually think that the only way out of all this is for the US to collapse. I just don't see how an administration this inept, corrupt and out of touch with reality can result in anything else. On top of that, far too much of the electorate are completely gone from reality. I just don't think the country can function when 30% of it doesn't live in reality anymore. I've been really trying to ignore that option and pretending like it's not a real option but.... I dunno.

I'm not as pessimistic. Trump can always start making "deals" like he did with Canada a few weeks ago. He claims concessions were given and the other country does what they were going to do anyway (in this case, Canada re-released the PR for the border increase that was announced last year). This is about Trump's need to be admired and good leaders will work that.

When the GOP fears its other voters more than Trump's MAGA base -- when voters start asking their Congressling to fix inflation and unemployment -- then they turn.

As for the 30%, there's always been a 20-30% contingent in America that's angry and Machiavellian. Look at all the polls done for Nixon over the years -- even years later, ~20% were fine with him breaking into an opposing party's office in order to win.

Trump didn't really make a deal with Canada though, he just got cold feet as canada rallied around the flag.

He did, though. Trump backed down and, in return, Canada promised more re-released a blurb about border security. Canada's tariffs go away (briefly) and Trump looks like a brilliant deal maker to his low-news MAGA base. It's maybe not what Trump wanted but it strokes his ego.

The problem is that the way Trump and his admin have set this up doesn't make for easy concessions. Trumps logic around the tariff rate isn't actually possible to make concessions on because it's not based on their tariff rate, it's based on their trade deficit, so countries like vietnam can't actually make concessions, they already have pretty open trade with the US. It's the same with Europe, their tariff rate on the US is like 2.1% and when technology services are included there's basically no trade deficit, there aren't really concessions or a deal to be made here. SK already has a free trade agreement with the US. Also with the way he's been denigrating allies who would probably have come to the table pretty readily adds another level of difficulty. I mean he literally talked about how allies like Europe, SK and Japan have been raping and pillaging america, which is absolute nonsense. I don't see how the big economies like China/asian bloc and Europe can make a deal that also looks good for them. Europeans don't want their leaders to bend the knee to Trump, they will need to win too, which Trumps rhetoric has made almost impossible to do.

You're looking at this logically. This is about making Trump feel like the master negotiator that he thinks he is. A concession only has to look like a concession on Truth and Fox. The generally more intelligent world leaders recognize this.

[Poundwise]

As far as Trump and his people are concerned, the main goal is to get richer. And they are, because they can manipulate the markets at will unhampered by any need to follow the law or build up the American people. They can also accept bribes to adjust tariffs. 

[sixwings]

I dunno I doubt Trump can even backpedal on this. It's his only economic policy, and the way he has talked about it makes retreat very difficult to accomplish without admiting to everyone that he lied and is a general moron. On top of that he's pissed everyone off globally so major concessions are unlikely. Like in his first term it was relatively normal trade issues and so he got concessions from canada and mexico in USMCA and got a much needed update to NAFTA, but this time? Canada is not going to offer concessions. Europe is done with him, Asia is uniting against him, I dunno, I don't think there's a way out of this for Trump, even if he wanted to. Congress will have to act or get demolished in mid terms.

I also don't think the damage will ever be clear to Trump, he lives in his own deranged fantasy world and no one is going to tell him that this is a disaster. Senate republicans didn't take their job of advising and consenting seriously and now there's no one in the administration who can reel this back. Another key difference from 2016, back then he had reasonable rational people who live in reality and had a lot of experience in these things. Now he's literally got Dr. Oz. In terms of trade, lighthizer and greer are MILES apart in competence.

Honestly I'm starting to actually think that the only way out of all this is for the US to collapse. I just don't see how an administration this inept, corrupt and out of touch with reality can result in anything else. On top of that, far too much of the electorate are completely gone from reality. I just don't think the country can function when 30% of it doesn't live in reality anymore. I've been really trying to ignore that option and pretending like it's not a real option but.... I dunno.

I'm not as pessimistic. Trump can always start making "deals" like he did with Canada a few weeks ago. He claims concessions were given and the other country does what they were going to do anyway (in this case, Canada re-released the PR for the border increase that was announced last year). This is about Trump's need to be admired and good leaders will work that.

When the GOP fears its other voters more than Trump's MAGA base -- when voters start asking their Congressling to fix inflation and unemployment -- then they turn.

As for the 30%, there's always been a 20-30% contingent in America that's angry and Machiavellian. Look at all the polls done for Nixon over the years -- even years later, ~20% were fine with him breaking into an opposing party's office in order to win.

Trump didn't really make a deal with Canada though, he just got cold feet as canada rallied around the flag.

He did, though. Trump backed down and, in return, Canada promised more re-released a blurb about border security. Canada's tariffs go away (briefly) and Trump looks like a brilliant deal maker to his low-news MAGA base. It's maybe not what Trump wanted but it strokes his ego.

The problem is that the way Trump and his admin have set this up doesn't make for easy concessions. Trumps logic around the tariff rate isn't actually possible to make concessions on because it's not based on their tariff rate, it's based on their trade deficit, so countries like vietnam can't actually make concessions, they already have pretty open trade with the US. It's the same with Europe, their tariff rate on the US is like 2.1% and when technology services are included there's basically no trade deficit, there aren't really concessions or a deal to be made here. SK already has a free trade agreement with the US. Also with the way he's been denigrating allies who would probably have come to the table pretty readily adds another level of difficulty. I mean he literally talked about how allies like Europe, SK and Japan have been raping and pillaging america, which is absolute nonsense. I don't see how the big economies like China/asian bloc and Europe can make a deal that also looks good for them. Europeans don't want their leaders to bend the knee to Trump, they will need to win too, which Trumps rhetoric has made almost impossible to do.

You're looking at this logically. This is about making Trump feel like the master negotiator that he thinks he is. A concession only has to look like a concession on Truth and Fox. The generally more intelligent world leaders recognize this.

This was true in 2016, but now with the way Trump has denigrated allies I think the general public in many of these places are paying far more attention than they did in 2016, especially in places like Europe and Canada, leaders in these countries need to also get a win and for Trump to shut the fuck up and show some respect or else those leaders are going to look weak AF in their home countries (again particularly Europe, I dont have a strong idea of how people in vietnam or SK or Japan feel about Trum), which I'm not sure is possible. I don't think it will be politically acceptable in impacted countries to have Trump talking on Fox about how weak Europe is and how strong he is this time around. This is not 2016 and people need to stop applying that logic and lense to the current situation. 

[Travis]

Bessent: as long as there aren't retaliations, this is as bad as it'll get.

https://x.com/burgessev/status/1908173545365963203?s=46&t=Wa2x0rgVIHAaVaM7pD2u3g

China just put 34% tariffs on everything coming from us.

https://bsky.app/profile/josephpolitano.bsky.social/post/3llydzejim22p

Inside look at Trump's decision-making process

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/04/04/trump-tariffs-reason-advisers/

https://archive.li/Jx7L4

[mtnrider]

Bessent: as long as there aren't retaliations, this is as bad as it'll get.

https://x.com/burgessev/status/1908173545365963203?s=46&t=Wa2x0rgVIHAaVaM7pD2u3g

China just put 34% tariffs on everything coming from us.

https://bsky.app/profile/josephpolitano.bsky.social/post/3llydzejim22p

Inside look at Trump's decision-making process

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/04/04/trump-tariffs-reason-advisers/

https://archive.li/Jx7L4

After weeks of work, aides from several government agencies produced a menu of options meant to account for a wide range of trading practices, according to three people familiar with the matter.

Instead, Trump personally selected a formula that was based on two simple variables

Well, that explains it.

They say Trump is unperturbed by negative headlines or criticism from foreign leaders. He is determined to listen to a single voice — his own — to secure what he views as his political legacy.
“He’s at the peak of just not giving a f--- anymore,” said a White House official with knowledge of Trump’s thinking.

God help us all.

[wenchsenior]

Welp, just bought a car at the very last second before prices skyrocket.

Had no plans to buy 6 months ago, but since we might need one for various reasons in the next 4 years, decided we'd better do it now.

Of course, husband (federal scientist) has good chance of being fired in the next month, so that could sure make things interesting...

[sixwings]

I was considering that as well to replace my 2011 that's starting to require more repairs, will need to make a decision this weekend on that.