Author Topic: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit  (Read 39347 times)

brooklynguy

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #100 on: June 23, 2015, 07:45:33 AM »
This thread started with So Close's observation that the Supreme Court case was receiving surprisingly little media attention in light of its practical importance.  Now that the Supreme Court is on the eve of rendering its decision, media attention has risen to a boil.  It has been interesting to observe the biases in various media outlets' reporting on the case based on their respective political leanings.  I like this article from today's NY Times (no doubt in part because that paper's political slant happens to closely align with my own):

NY Times Article:  Supreme Court Ruling on Health Law Will Shape Obama's Legacy

The article offers more insight into how many Republicans are (with total transparency, at this point) planning to use a potential adverse decision to "dismantle" the ACA.  Here are a couple of choice quotes from the article (which also clearly support the point I made in my first post in this thread six months ago and allow me to indulge in the vice of saying "I told you so"):

Quote
But many [Republicans] say they are gleeful that the court may do with a single decision what Republican lawmakers could not accomplish in five years: strike a devastating blow to one of Mr. Obama’s signature achievements.

Quote
“This is the beginning of the end of the Affordable Care Act,” Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, the chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, said in an interview.

Mr. Ryan said Republicans were preparing legislation that would protect policy holders from losing subsidies until 2017, when Mr. Obama would no longer be in office. At that point, Mr. Ryan said, Republican lawmakers would try to work with the new president to fully dismantle the health care law and replace it with a more conservative approach.

“The key is to get into 2017,’’ Mr. Ryan said. “That’s why the court ruling is so devastating to him. It will expose this law, and make it certain that Congress will be rewriting this law fully once he’s gone.”

(emphasis added)

For the record, I actually predict that the Supreme Court will decide in favor of the government, but I don't have a high level of confidence in the accuracy that prediction.

forummm

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #101 on: June 23, 2015, 07:55:44 AM »
Could find out in 5 minutes. Or in weeks.

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seattlecyclone

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #103 on: June 25, 2015, 08:24:07 AM »
Opinion just released. Federal exchange subsidies are affirmed.

forummm

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #104 on: June 25, 2015, 08:37:19 AM »
“The combination of no tax credits and an ineffective coverage requirement could well push a State’s individual insurance market into a death spiral. It is implausible that Congress meant the Act to operate in this manner,” said Roberts.

brooklynguy

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #105 on: June 25, 2015, 09:10:15 AM »
I'm probably going to save the full opinion for in-flight reading on a trip I'm taking tomorrow, but, until then, I'll just leave this here:


geekette

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #106 on: June 25, 2015, 09:25:33 AM »
I'm probably going to save the full opinion for in-flight reading on a trip I'm taking tomorrow, but, until then, I'll just leave this here:


+1

So relieved.  DH really, really didn't want to go back to work, just for access to health insurance. 

RootofGood

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #107 on: June 25, 2015, 09:26:22 AM »
Just read the syllabus of the opinion.  Basically, the court says it would be crazy to interpret 4 words to strike down 2/3's of the major points of the law where those points are clearly outlined in the legislation.  Making insurance affordable by providing subsidies and mandatory coverage being the two points of the law that would be gutted if the court relied on a plain language reading of "established by the states". 

Makes sense to me.  Why toss out hundreds of pages of mostly coherent statutes because of ambiguity in four words? 

Gone Fishing

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #108 on: June 25, 2015, 09:54:30 AM »
So what's next?   What do the great political minds think will happen if Republicans take the presidency and maintain control of congress? Most say a 100% repeal is off the table and any change to the mandate will bring everything tumbling down anyway.  So what do they do to deliver to their base?  Rollback subsidies? 

Midwest

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #109 on: June 25, 2015, 10:05:25 AM »
So what's next?   What do the great political minds think will happen if Republicans take the presidency and maintain control of congress? Most say a 100% repeal is off the table and any change to the mandate will bring everything tumbling down anyway.  So what do they do to deliver to their base?  Rollback subsidies?

If the republicans keep majority and the presidency, hopefully they will do something about controlling the staggering costs of healthcare and insurance.  Obamacare increased access for those getting it for free and the uninsurable, but many in the middle class/working poor can't/won't pay for insurance. 

As one who thought the case had merit, I'm glad it was 6-3 decision versus a 5-4.  It wasn't purely along partisan lines which makes me feel better about the decision.

Cathy

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #110 on: June 25, 2015, 10:24:15 AM »
I'll refrain from commenting on the opinion, but I will comment on this:

“The combination of no tax credits and an ineffective coverage requirement could well push a State’s individual insurance market into a death spiral. It is implausible that Congress meant the Act to operate in this manner,” said Roberts.

This is in fact not a quote from the opinion of Robers CJ, which shows how much you can trust the popular news media. Maybe you shouldn't be so quick to believe its claims that the Court is a partisan institution with "predictable" votes either?

I made the mistake of reading some popular news media this morning and I stumbled across this defamatory and ridiculous article titled "Justice Thomas defends racist housing practices by pointing out the NBA is mostly black". This reporter, who also extensively covered King, apparently either lacks the ability to read English, or is being deliberately malicious. Either way, Thomas J has a strong claim of libel against that writer, but he probably won't pursue it.

The article says that Thomas J defended "racist housing practices" by saying that the NBA is mostly black. However, what Thomas J actually said is that in a world with systemic racism against black people, you would still expect to see situations where black people have a statistical advantage, but that the existence of that statistical advantage does not mean that racism is not real. In other words, the reporter literally represented Thomas J as saying the exact opposite of what he said.

That's about all I can take from the popular news media for one day.

Kris

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #111 on: June 25, 2015, 10:25:38 AM »
So what's next?   What do the great political minds think will happen if Republicans take the presidency and maintain control of congress? Most say a 100% repeal is off the table and any change to the mandate will bring everything tumbling down anyway.  So what do they do to deliver to their base?  Rollback subsidies?

If the republicans keep majority and the presidency, hopefully they will do something about controlling the staggering costs of healthcare and insurance.

That's about as likely as them taking meaningful action on climate change, unfortunately.

Midwest

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #112 on: June 25, 2015, 10:35:50 AM »
So what's next?   What do the great political minds think will happen if Republicans take the presidency and maintain control of congress? Most say a 100% repeal is off the table and any change to the mandate will bring everything tumbling down anyway.  So what do they do to deliver to their base?  Rollback subsidies?

If the republicans keep majority and the presidency, hopefully they will do something about controlling the staggering costs of healthcare and insurance.

That's about as likely as them taking meaningful action on climate change, unfortunately.

Kris:

Democrats had their chance to address controlling costs and chose not to do so.  I can't say if republicans will either, but it needs done.  If they would legislate pricing transparency, costs would decrease because many consumers would shop costs.

I will say, the one thing Obamacare got really right was the concept of allowing people with pre-existing conditions to get insurance.  Execution of that particular idea could probably be improved, but as a concept I agree that people should be able to get health insurance.

Midwest
« Last Edit: June 25, 2015, 10:40:03 AM by Midwest »

RootofGood

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #113 on: June 25, 2015, 10:42:51 AM »
So what's next?   What do the great political minds think will happen if Republicans take the presidency and maintain control of congress? Most say a 100% repeal is off the table and any change to the mandate will bring everything tumbling down anyway.  So what do they do to deliver to their base?  Rollback subsidies?

A few proposals came out from various republicans.  I think it was discussed here at MMM (maybe in this very thread!).  Basically, all the proposals were taking ACA, sticking it in a blender and ending up with something similar-ish.  Some form of cost subsidy or health insurance payment.  The one noticeably lacking feature from GOP proposals as I recall was the pre-existing condition coverage requirement.  Which would put us back to the pre-ACA issue of the currently healthy paying nearly nothing for coverage while those previously sick not being able to get full coverage or being forced to pay 5-10x the going rate for their state's high risk pool. 

Kris

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #114 on: June 25, 2015, 10:58:42 AM »
So what's next?   What do the great political minds think will happen if Republicans take the presidency and maintain control of congress? Most say a 100% repeal is off the table and any change to the mandate will bring everything tumbling down anyway.  So what do they do to deliver to their base?  Rollback subsidies?

If the republicans keep majority and the presidency, hopefully they will do something about controlling the staggering costs of healthcare and insurance.

That's about as likely as them taking meaningful action on climate change, unfortunately.

Kris:

Democrats had their chance to address controlling costs and chose not to do so.  I can't say if republicans will either, but it needs done.  If they would legislate pricing transparency, costs would decrease because many consumers would shop costs.


I would say that there are some Democrats who are very motivated to address controlling costs, and others who are less so.  But on the Republican side, I honestly cannot imagine any of them currently in office, or any of the presidential contenders, who would actually do anything to address health care costs, beyond saying they are too high as something to placate voters.  Between the ones who are receiving campaign money from the health care industry, the ones who are good buddies with their lobbyists, and the ones who seem to honestly believe that there should be no limits imposed on "the market", addressing costs seems to be a non-starter for that party for the foreseeable future.

dramaman

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #115 on: June 25, 2015, 11:02:37 AM »
I'll refrain from commenting on the opinion, but I will comment on this:

“The combination of no tax credits and an ineffective coverage requirement could well push a State’s individual insurance market into a death spiral. It is implausible that Congress meant the Act to operate in this manner,” said Roberts.

This is in fact not a quote from the opinion of Robers CJ, which shows how much you can trust the popular news media. Maybe you shouldn't be so quick to believe its claims that the Court is a partisan institution with "predictable" votes either?

Ummm, all four justices nominated by Democrats voted in favor. Three justices nominated by Republicans voted against, that means that seven out of nine justices (77%) were ENTIRELY predictable. If you went back to an earlier post of mine you would see that the only justices that I thought might vote contrary to their party affiliation were Roberts and/or Kennedy. So I can't see how this disproves that the court is a partisan institution with predictable votes. It may not be 100% partisan 100% of the time, but in this case it is not unreasonable to interpret multiple justices having voted along partisan line.

Midwest

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #116 on: June 25, 2015, 11:18:40 AM »
So what's next?   What do the great political minds think will happen if Republicans take the presidency and maintain control of congress? Most say a 100% repeal is off the table and any change to the mandate will bring everything tumbling down anyway.  So what do they do to deliver to their base?  Rollback subsidies?

If the republicans keep majority and the presidency, hopefully they will do something about controlling the staggering costs of healthcare and insurance.

That's about as likely as them taking meaningful action on climate change, unfortunately.

Kris:

Democrats had their chance to address controlling costs and chose not to do so.  I can't say if republicans will either, but it needs done.  If they would legislate pricing transparency, costs would decrease because many consumers would shop costs.


I would say that there are some Democrats who are very motivated to address controlling costs, and others who are less so.  But on the Republican side, I honestly cannot imagine any of them currently in office, or any of the presidential contenders, who would actually do anything to address health care costs, beyond saying they are too high as something to placate voters.  Between the ones who are receiving campaign money from the health care industry, the ones who are good buddies with their lobbyists, and the ones who seem to honestly believe that there should be no limits imposed on "the market", addressing costs seems to be a non-starter for that party for the foreseeable future.

If Obama and the democrats cared about this, they had 2 years to take care of it,   instead they rushed a poorly written bill through at the 11th hour. 

Both parties are equally in bed with the money, so I don't think that's a republican or democrat issue.  I'd say both parties have given it lip service and neither has addressed it.  If republicans gain complete control, I don't think they would totally roll it back.  Slowing the growth in costs would be a reasonable thing.  Who knows.

Midwest
« Last Edit: June 25, 2015, 11:27:08 AM by Midwest »

brooklynguy

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #117 on: June 25, 2015, 11:22:16 AM »
I'll refrain from commenting on the opinion, but I will comment on this:

“The combination of no tax credits and an ineffective coverage requirement could well push a State’s individual insurance market into a death spiral. It is implausible that Congress meant the Act to operate in this manner,” said Roberts.

This is in fact not a quote from the opinion of Robers CJ, which shows how much you can trust the popular news media. Maybe you shouldn't be so quick to believe its claims that the Court is a partisan institution with "predictable" votes either?

Well, although that quote probably came directly from the syllabus, both sentences do appear (in relatively close proximity) verbatim in Roberts' opinion as well, so if the reporter would have inserted an ellipsis instead of a period after the first sentence to indicate the omission of some intermediate language, then it would in fact constitute a quote from his opinion with no technical argument to the contrary.  So, although I agree with your general point about the mainstream news media simplifying (and often mischaracterizing) facts and issues, in this case I don't think the reporter's representation of the quote as coming from Roberts' opinion is objectionable.

Kris

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #118 on: June 25, 2015, 11:26:52 AM »
So what's next?   What do the great political minds think will happen if Republicans take the presidency and maintain control of congress? Most say a 100% repeal is off the table and any change to the mandate will bring everything tumbling down anyway.  So what do they do to deliver to their base?  Rollback subsidies?

If the republicans keep majority and the presidency, hopefully they will do something about controlling the staggering costs of healthcare and insurance.

That's about as likely as them taking meaningful action on climate change, unfortunately.

Kris:

Democrats had their chance to address controlling costs and chose not to do so.  I can't say if republicans will either, but it needs done.  If they would legislate pricing transparency, costs would decrease because many consumers would shop costs.


I would say that there are some Democrats who are very motivated to address controlling costs, and others who are less so.  But on the Republican side, I honestly cannot imagine any of them currently in office, or any of the presidential contenders, who would actually do anything to address health care costs, beyond saying they are too high as something to placate voters.  Between the ones who are receiving campaign money from the health care industry, the ones who are good buddies with their lobbyists, and the ones who seem to honestly believe that there should be no limits imposed on "the market", addressing costs seems to be a non-starter for that party for the foreseeable future.

If Obama and the democrats cared about this, they had 2 years to take care of it,   instead they rushed a poorly written bill through at the 11th hour. 

Both parties are equally in bed with the money, so I don't think that's a republican or democrat issue.  I'd say both parties have given it lip service and neither has addressed it. 

Midwest

 I always find it odd when people say the above, as if the Democrats had absolutely no obstacles to "taking care of it."

Both parties are in bed with money, yes.  Equally? I'd say maybe not.

Midwest

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #119 on: June 25, 2015, 11:29:47 AM »
Both parties are in bed with money, yes.  Equally? I'd say maybe not.

We could go back and forth on that one, but I don't think we'd convince each other.  Agree to disagree.

Midwest

Cathy

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #120 on: June 25, 2015, 11:42:19 AM »
Ummm, all four justices nominated by Democrats voted in favor. Three justices nominated by Republicans voted against, that means that seven out of nine justices (77%) were ENTIRELY predictable. If you went back to an earlier post of mine you would see that the only justices that I thought might vote contrary to their party affiliation were Roberts and/or Kennedy. So I can't see how this disproves that the court is a partisan institution with predictable votes. It may not be 100% partisan 100% of the time, but in this case it is not unreasonable to interpret multiple justices having voted along partisan line.

I'm honestly not sure what you are responding to here. You quoted my post, but then you seem to be replying to an argument not contained in my post. I didn't say anything about the the judgment, and I certainly didn't say the judgment sheds any light either way on whether the Court is a partisan institution with "predictable" votes.

The point I actually was making was this: The reason that ordinary Americans believe the Court casts votes based on politics is that the popular news media says so. The vast majority of people who believe that the judgments are based on politics are not very familiar with the jurisprudence of the Supreme Court of the United States. In most cases, they haven't even read a full opinion, or if they have, they only read the major opinions covered in the news, so they really have no perspective on the case law as a whole and whether the major decisions are political, or motivated by existing law. There are maybe a few incredibly rare cases of people deeply familiar with the Court's jurisprudence who also make similar claims, but it's extremely rare. It's a very safe bet that people who make these political statements are just basing it on what the popular news media says. However, that's foolish because the popular news media is not a good way to learn about the law, or about anything. That's why I don't read the popular news media, and why I encourage anybody who cares about the facts to stay as far away from it as possible.

Well, although that quote probably came directly from the syllabus, both sentences do appear (in relatively close proximity) verbatim in Roberts' opinion as well, so if the reporter would have inserted an ellipsis instead of a period after the first sentence to indicate the omission of some intermediate language, then it would in fact constitute a quote from his opinion with no technical argument to the contrary.  So, although I agree with your general point about the mainstream news media simplifying (and often mischaracterizing) facts and issues, in this case I don't think the reporter's representation of the quote as coming from Roberts' opinion is objectionable.

My point here was not that the quote misrepresented the opinion of Roberts CJ. The point was simply that the writer (a) probably did not read past the syllabus before writing about the decision, and (b) probably does not understand that the syllabus is not part of the opinion of the Court. In other words, it's just further evidence that the popular news media is written by people who don't understand what they write about, and should not be relied on.

Paul der Krake

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #121 on: June 25, 2015, 11:49:35 AM »
As someone who very rarely reads opinions, is it customary for the dissenting opinion(s) to sound much less formal than the court's?

Maybe I'm just projecting my biases on something that isn't there, but I read a lot of sarcasm and even resentment in Scalia's writing.

brooklynguy

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #122 on: June 25, 2015, 11:55:44 AM »
As someone who very rarely reads opinions, is it customary for the dissenting opinion(s) to sound much less formal than the court's?

Maybe I'm just projecting my biases on something that isn't there, but I read a lot of sarcasm and even resentment in Scalia's writing.

I haven't read the opinions yet, but it is customary for Scalia to use informal, entertaining, and often inflammatory language (especially in, but not limited to, his dissents).  The jurist is famous for his writing style.  Although I often disagree with him on the merits, I absolutely love reading his opinions for their entertainment value.

EDIT:  Here's article from (sorry, Cathy) the NY Times on language usage trends in Supreme Court opinions discussing how they have "grown in size, accessibility and testiness":

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/05/us/justices-opinions-grow-in-size-accessibility-and-testiness-study-finds.html
« Last Edit: June 25, 2015, 12:01:20 PM by brooklynguy »

Kris

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #123 on: June 25, 2015, 12:02:58 PM »
As someone who very rarely reads opinions, is it customary for the dissenting opinion(s) to sound much less formal than the court's?

Maybe I'm just projecting my biases on something that isn't there, but I read a lot of sarcasm and even resentment in Scalia's writing.

I haven't read the opinions yet, but it is customary for Scalia to use informal, entertaining, and often inflammatory language (especially in, but not limited to, his dissents).  The jurist is famous for his writing style.  Although I often disagree with him on the merits, I absolutely love reading his opinions for their entertainment value.

EDIT:  Here's article from (sorry, Cathy) the NY Times on language usage trends in Supreme Court opinions discussing how they have "grown in size, accessibility and testiness":

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/05/us/justices-opinions-grow-in-size-accessibility-and-testiness-study-finds.html

I find Scalia so hyperbolic that I have trouble trusting that he has the ability to be objective.  His dissents, when I read them, feel chock full of logical fallacies.  Not very comforting in a SC justice.

dramaman

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #124 on: June 25, 2015, 12:28:46 PM »
The point I actually was making was this: The reason that ordinary Americans believe the Court casts votes based on politics is that the popular news media says so...

The vast majority of people who believe that the judgments are based on politics are not very familiar with the jurisprudence of the Supreme Court of the United States. In most cases, they haven't even read a full opinion, or if they have, they only read the major opinions covered in the news, so they really have no perspective on the case law as a whole and whether the major decisions are political, or motivated by existing law. There are maybe a few incredibly rare cases of people deeply familiar with the Court's jurisprudence who also make similar claims, but it's extremely rare. It's a very safe bet that people who make these political statements are just basing it on what the popular news media says. However, that's foolish because the popular news media is not a good way to learn about the law, or about anything. That's why I don't read the popular news media, and why I encourage anybody who cares about the facts to stay as far away from it as possible.

Do you even realize just how elitist you come across as? Instead of actually explain how this case was 100% non-political you simply take the 'I know better' attitude and discount anyone who disagrees with you is an 'ordinary American' who is too stupid to know anything of value and/or has been brainwashed by the media.

brooklynguy

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #125 on: June 25, 2015, 01:46:55 PM »
Do you even realize just how elitist you come across as? Instead of actually explain how this case was 100% non-political you simply take the 'I know better' attitude and discount anyone who disagrees with you is an 'ordinary American' who is too stupid to know anything of value and/or has been brainwashed by the media.

Remember forum rule # 2 (attack an argument, not a person).  Tone is not always easily conveyed through this medium of communication, and it therefore gets all too easily misconstrued.  I've been involved in a few cases of such misconstruction on the forum, on both the receiving and the delivering ends.  I think Cathy has made some very good and valid points, and, in the quoted post, instead of refuting them, you did exactly what you accused her of doing -- adopting an opinion that can't be argued against in lieu of making a substantive argument.

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #126 on: June 25, 2015, 02:36:00 PM »
The point I actually was making was this: The reason that ordinary Americans believe the Court casts votes based on politics is that the popular news media says so...

The vast majority of people who believe that the judgments are based on politics are not very familiar with the jurisprudence of the Supreme Court of the United States. In most cases, they haven't even read a full opinion, or if they have, they only read the major opinions covered in the news, so they really have no perspective on the case law as a whole and whether the major decisions are political, or motivated by existing law. There are maybe a few incredibly rare cases of people deeply familiar with the Court's jurisprudence who also make similar claims, but it's extremely rare. It's a very safe bet that people who make these political statements are just basing it on what the popular news media says. However, that's foolish because the popular news media is not a good way to learn about the law, or about anything. That's why I don't read the popular news media, and why I encourage anybody who cares about the facts to stay as far away from it as possible.

Do you even realize just how elitist you come across as? Instead of actually explain how this case was 100% non-political you simply take the 'I know better' attitude and discount anyone who disagrees with you is an 'ordinary American' who is too stupid to know anything of value and/or has been brainwashed by the media.

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forummm

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #127 on: June 25, 2015, 02:37:08 PM »
Ummm, all four justices nominated by Democrats voted in favor. Three justices nominated by Republicans voted against, that means that seven out of nine justices (77%) were ENTIRELY predictable. If you went back to an earlier post of mine you would see that the only justices that I thought might vote contrary to their party affiliation were Roberts and/or Kennedy. So I can't see how this disproves that the court is a partisan institution with predictable votes. It may not be 100% partisan 100% of the time, but in this case it is not unreasonable to interpret multiple justices having voted along partisan line.

I'm honestly not sure what you are responding to here. You quoted my post, but then you seem to be replying to an argument not contained in my post. I didn't say anything about the the judgment, and I certainly didn't say the judgment sheds any light either way on whether the Court is a partisan institution with "predictable" votes.

The point I actually was making was this: The reason that ordinary Americans believe the Court casts votes based on politics is that the popular news media says so. The vast majority of people who believe that the judgments are based on politics are not very familiar with the jurisprudence of the Supreme Court of the United States. In most cases, they haven't even read a full opinion, or if they have, they only read the major opinions covered in the news, so they really have no perspective on the case law as a whole and whether the major decisions are political, or motivated by existing law. There are maybe a few incredibly rare cases of people deeply familiar with the Court's jurisprudence who also make similar claims, but it's extremely rare. It's a very safe bet that people who make these political statements are just basing it on what the popular news media says. However, that's foolish because the popular news media is not a good way to learn about the law, or about anything. That's why I don't read the popular news media, and why I encourage anybody who cares about the facts to stay as far away from it as possible.

Well, although that quote probably came directly from the syllabus, both sentences do appear (in relatively close proximity) verbatim in Roberts' opinion as well, so if the reporter would have inserted an ellipsis instead of a period after the first sentence to indicate the omission of some intermediate language, then it would in fact constitute a quote from his opinion with no technical argument to the contrary.  So, although I agree with your general point about the mainstream news media simplifying (and often mischaracterizing) facts and issues, in this case I don't think the reporter's representation of the quote as coming from Roberts' opinion is objectionable.

My point here was not that the quote misrepresented the opinion of Roberts CJ. The point was simply that the writer (a) probably did not read past the syllabus before writing about the decision, and (b) probably does not understand that the syllabus is not part of the opinion of the Court. In other words, it's just further evidence that the popular news media is written by people who don't understand what they write about, and should not be relied on.

The media is not perfect. They get things wrong in ways that don't matter (as in the quote coming from the syllabus vs the same phrasing copied essentially verbatim coming from his opinion). And they get things wrong in ways that do matter. I did quickly pull the quote from a source that is not normally turned to for strong journalistic legal analysis. I don't know if it's been used elsewhere. But to be honest, it's a pretty weak piece of evidence of your assertion.

I'm not sure why you're so bent on believing that no justice considers or is influenced by politics or other personal bias. Especially given all the evidence to the contrary. I agree that the news media gets the framing wrong on this issue frequently. But their incorrect framing doesn't mean the actual behavior isn't there in a different form. I never said that it was in all cases or even in most cases. I think it's actually only a small minority of the cases where this bias looms large. And those do tend to be the most publicized cases because they are the most controversial. This could explain why the perception of bias in the court is higher than I think it actually is.

I think any human is subject to their biases. Including you and me and Scalia and Ginsburg. I am open to seeing past mine. I think if you were open to seeing past yours you would come to agree that there is *some* bias on display in *some* of the cases.

dramaman

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #128 on: June 25, 2015, 03:31:58 PM »
Do you even realize just how elitist you come across as? Instead of actually explain how this case was 100% non-political you simply take the 'I know better' attitude and discount anyone who disagrees with you is an 'ordinary American' who is too stupid to know anything of value and/or has been brainwashed by the media.

Remember forum rule # 2 (attack an argument, not a person).  Tone is not always easily conveyed through this medium of communication, and it therefore gets all too easily misconstrued.  I've been involved in a few cases of such misconstruction on the forum, on both the receiving and the delivering ends.  I think Cathy has made some very good and valid points, and, in the quoted post, instead of refuting them, you did exactly what you accused her of doing -- adopting an opinion that can't be argued against in lieu of making a substantive argument.

Point taken. I should not have pointed out how elitist she sounded and rather have emphasized how elitist her argument sounded ;)

I do take exception to the assertion that she had some very good and valid points. Her entire argument was that people who disagreed with her were wrong because they were either ignorant (unlike her) or influenced (unlike her) by an ignorant media. In my initial reply I started to point out my own knowledge of constitutional law but then realized that it would make no difference whatsoever because I would immediately fall into her media 'brainwashed' category.

If I overlooked some good or valid point that she made, please enlighten me, because I saw nothing in her prior comment other than a long lecture about how only someone as intelligent and educated in legal matters (as she is) AND someone who never reads the media (as she abstains) can have an intelligent opinion regarding whether politics impacts Supreme Court decisions.

Cathy

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #129 on: June 25, 2015, 03:53:03 PM »
dramaman, I think in large part you are responding to things I did not say.

However, to the extent may I have overreached in my assertions, it may be because I read the popular news media this morning. As MMM has explained, that mistake can lead to "generally being pissed off about things". ;-)

MDM

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #130 on: June 25, 2015, 03:53:58 PM »
If I overlooked some good or valid point that she made...regarding whether politics impacts Supreme Court decisions.

The point I took from Cathy's comments was that viewing court decisions through the filter of a politically-biased media report (regardless of which way one perceives the particular media bias to lean) is not as useful as reading the decisions themselves and drawing one's own conclusion.

And I agree with that.

forummm

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #131 on: June 25, 2015, 04:23:53 PM »
If I overlooked some good or valid point that she made...regarding whether politics impacts Supreme Court decisions.

The point I took from Cathy's comments was that viewing court decisions through the filter of a politically-biased media report (regardless of which way one perceives the particular media bias to lean) is not as useful as reading the decisions themselves and drawing one's own conclusion.

And I agree with that.

MDM's take-away, as he phrases it, makes sense.

However, that's not how I see Cathy's original paragraph. For example, she expresses the view that one shouldn't read the "popular news media" at all. While that phrase is undefined, I think that completely shutting off sources of information or opinion--even if flawed--places one in a bubble where one only sees what they already believed to be there. I don't know if, say, the New York Times counts as "popular news media". It is one of the largest by circulation in the country. I find their articles on subjects where I am an SME to be of very high quality and accuracy (not perfect, but really pretty close, and I can understand the kinds of mistakes they make). And as an informed reader of political content, I can generally tell when something should be taken at other than face value. When quotes from politicians or other sources are provided, I know that "this is their talking point" and don't think "this must be 100% true". And given enough exposure over time I can generally tell what part of it is true, what part of it is not true, and what part of it I need to go find more info on. I think this can only come from consuming a lot of information and using your brain.

One could do the same with the WSJ. Or WaPo.

So if one is only reading SCOTUS opinions and does not consider the viewpoints of others who read those same opinions and come to different conclusions about them, then one is possibly misinterpreting the opinions and may never know it. You can't always solve a puzzle if you don't look at all the pieces.

MDM

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #132 on: June 25, 2015, 04:30:27 PM »
So if one ... does not consider the viewpoints of others who ... come to different conclusions ..., then one is possibly misinterpreting the opinions and may never know it.

Agree with the specific original quote, and the more general edited version here - good perspective.

brooklynguy

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #133 on: June 25, 2015, 05:13:36 PM »
If I overlooked some good or valid point that she made, please enlighten me

MDM's takeaway was a perfect summary of what I viewed as the primary "good and valid point" Cathy made.  Obviously I don't agree with everything Cathy has argued (most of my responses to her posts in this thread have been rebuttals), but her points in this thread helped open my eyes to the fact that unconscious biaseses on these matters are even more pervasive that I had thought, and I think it's for similar reasons both that you interpreted her posts as having an elitist spin and that Cathy seems to be laboring under the misimpression that all judges are immune to those same types of biases.

Cathy

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #134 on: June 25, 2015, 05:49:54 PM »
As I said in an earlier post, the issue isn't whether the judges are politically biased. The issue is that you can't have an intelligent opinion on that without understanding the jurisprudence, which is not present in the popular news media level of understanding of these issues.

More to the point, the majority opinion in King was in fact not "predictable", whether through a political crystal ball or otherwise. The majority of the Court finds that the statute is ambiguous but that administrative law curial deference does not apply and that it falls to the Court to determine the meaning of the phrase. As far as I know, no commentator, either in this thread or elsewhere on the internet, made that prediction. I hesitate to admit it but I read quite a few analyses of this case and all of the commentators predicted that the Court would either find that the statute was clear, or that it would find it was ambiguous and apply curial deference to uphold the impugned regulation. The Court did neither. Before posting this, I did do a search to see if I could find anybody who correctly predicted the outcome, but I literally found no one who did, anywhere on the internet. Maybe you can find somebody, but even if so, it would be one correct prediction in an ocean of incorrect ones. In other words, virtually no one correctly predicted the merits outcome here, regardless of their prediction technique.

This is not just an abstract point, by the way. If the Court had applied curial deference to upheld the regulation, it would have meant that the Secretary of the Treasury could withhold subsidies from most states at any time, perhaps after a new presidential election. The Court's decision, which no one was expecting, handily avoids that result.

So, regardless of what you think about the political nature of the Court, the fact is that no one's models -- whether based in politics or otherwise -- correctly predicted the outcome of this case. The votes were not only unpredictable, they were empirically not predicted at all.

brooklynguy

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #135 on: June 25, 2015, 06:11:09 PM »
With the understanding that this point exists in the backdrop:

The issue is that you can't have an intelligent opinion on that without understanding the jurisprudence, which is not present in the popular news media level of understanding of these issues.

We can have the following "second order" discussion:

Quote
In other words, virtually no one correctly predicted the merits outcome here, regardless of their prediction technique.

I haven't read the opinion yet (as I mentioned, I'm saving it for my flight tomorrow), but if the Court decided the case using novel reasoning that no one predicted (rather than through application of legal principles that clearly, or at least predictably, applied to the question presented), isn't it possible that underlying biases could have caused the justices to construct (or be persuaded by) compelling arguments to support their desired result (including unconsciously) instead of the other way around?  (Note that I'm not arguing that this is necessarily true, just that it is possible -- but I do think it is essentially beyond argument that it is true with respect to at least some judges in some courts across the land (which, as you know, vary widely in their level of sophistication, competence, personality, etc.).)

Cathy

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #136 on: June 25, 2015, 06:14:33 PM »
Not many people are yet discussing the ruling on a substantive level, but I did find this blog post, "King v. Burwell — The IRS Isn’t An Expert?", which argues that the outcome in King will likely "sow confusion" in tax jurisprudence about when regulations are entitled to curial deference (although the blog post also notes that the Court attempted to limit it approach to this case to avoid that confusion).

Cathy

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #137 on: June 25, 2015, 06:34:57 PM »
Here's another article I just found, "What King v. Burwell Means for Administrative Law", by Chris Walker, which asserts that "the way the Court reached its decision broke new ground in administrative law". The article goes on to agree with me that few people predicted the outcome of the case.

forummm

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #138 on: June 25, 2015, 06:59:41 PM »
I don't think anyone here was saying what the rationale in the opinions would be. We were saying it was clear what the votes of certain people would be. There are certain cases where you know with a pretty high degree of certainty on subject alone how some of the justices will vote, regardless of anything else that happens.

I figured, but was not certain, that the Court would be more likely to side with the administration because the intent of the Congress was so clear when you look at the bill as a whole. And that the dissenters would say "if you only read those 4 words" (and ignore everything else) that's what the bill says right there--those 4 words. I didn't know what the specific rationale would be that got them to that point though. But I was pretty confident how 7 of the justices would vote and had a good sense about Kennedy but was less certain. Roberts is playing the long game and is interesting to watch. He likes to write the majority opinion in these 'heightened awareness' cases so he can scope it the way he wants and plant hooks for the future. I had no sense of which direction he would go on this case. I'm also pretty confident how 8 will vote on the same sex marriage case (unsure of Roberts), but I'm not sure what they will all choose to vote on. And also have no idea what rationale they will use to get there. It could be another case where Roberts joins the majority so he can write the opinion again. I think that's the most likely to happen, but much closer to 50/50.

brooklynguy

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #139 on: June 25, 2015, 07:00:12 PM »
My point in my latest post may not have been clear -- I wasn't disagreeing that the outcome was unpredictable and unpredicted.  I was taking your word for it that that is indeed the case (that the justices exercised novel reasoning that none of the legal scholars who studied the case anticipated), and asking (rhetorically, because I think the answer is "yes"), doesn't that mean the possibility exists that the justices constructed a rationale for reaching a desired outcome, rather than performing a totally impartial, outcome-blind analysis?  (Again, I'm still not saying that's what happened, just that it could have been what happened, and I think it definitely does happen in at least some of the country's lower, lesser courts of law.)

Cathy

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #140 on: June 25, 2015, 08:54:22 PM »
My point in my latest post may not have been clear -- I wasn't disagreeing that the outcome was unpredictable and unpredicted.  I was taking your word for it that that is indeed the case (that the justices exercised novel reasoning that none of the legal scholars who studied the case anticipated), and asking (rhetorically, because I think the answer is "yes"), doesn't that mean the possibility exists that the justices constructed a rationale for reaching a desired outcome, rather than performing a totally impartial, outcome-blind analysis?  (Again, I'm still not saying that's what happened, just that it could have been what happened, and I think it definitely does happen in at least some of the country's lower, lesser courts of law.)

Part of the reason that I linked to those articles is that they contain some possible answers to this question.

In the Walker article, the professor disclaims any opinion on the matter himself, but ventures that "one could say" the majority opinion could represent a "judicial power grab over the Executive in the modern administrative state". In other words, according to this theory, the majority may have crafted the opinion with the intent of reducing the power of the executive.

To understand that theory, we have to step back a bit and consider some history. The field of administrative law as we understand it today is of fairly recent origin. It evolved out of the system of extraordinary writs at common law. Most notably, the writ of certiorari allowed a superior court to review the records of an executive official and to quash his decision if it was made without jurisdiction. The sold ground for review was lack of jurisdiction. According to the Supreme Court of Canada, administrative law had reached a "rudimentary state" by 1867: Att. Gen. of Quebec v. Blaikie et al., [1979] 2 SCR 1016, 1018.

(One interesting factoid is that use of the term "certiorari" in the US Supreme Court process is only very loosely related to the common law writ of the same name, because "at common law, certiorari does not lie against a decision of a superior court judge": Dagenais v. Canadian Broadcasting Corp., [1994] 3 SCR 835, 865. At common law, the sold remedy for an unfavourable decision by a superior court is a direct appeal, and if no appeal is authorised by statute, there is no way to challenge the decision.)

In the old days, the legislature was responsible for drafting laws, and if there was any ambiguity in the law, it would fall to the courts to determine the proper meaning of the statute, according to the ordinary rules of statutory interpretation. However, in modern times, the legislature instead often enacts a very vague and open-ended statute and then tasks an administrative agency with effecting its implementation by promulgating regulations -- in effect, the legislature delegates its lawmaking powers to administrators. In the UK, such regulations are called "secondary legislation", and I think this is a good term; it contrasts to "primary legislation" passed directly by the legislature. Those terms are not used in US and Canada but the concepts are.

One of the overriding principles of administrative law is that the administrators are presumed to have the expertise to implement the statute with which they have been tasked, and thus the Court is loathe to interfere. In other words, the modern administrative law was the beginning of a major shift of power where the responsibility for interpreting laws moved from the courts to administrators.

The complaint in King was filed under 5 USC, ch 7, titled "Judicial Review", the statutory successor to the system of extraordinary writs at common law. The plaintiffs alleged that the Secretary of the Treasury (referred to as the IRS) lacked the power to pass legislation extending tax credits to all states because the statutory regime unambiguously precluded such credits. The government's primary position was that the statute clearly authorised the credits, such that the regulation, although valid, was wholly unnecessary. The government's alternative position (in case the statute was ambiguous) was that the regulation was a valid exercise of lawmaking power delegated to the IRS.

The opinion of Roberts CJ rejects both of the government's arguments. First, it finds that the statute is ambiguous and that either interpretation could be reasonable. He could have ended the opinion there by finding the IRS regulation to be valid, but instead, he finds that the IRS lacks the authority to regulate this topic because of its significance, and that it is instead the province of the Court to decide how to implement the statute. From reading the opinion, Roberts CJ makes this sound like a natural thing, but it's actually a very surprising development that, to the extent it applies more broadly, reverses the general principles of administrative law (although as both blogs note, it may not be applied outside of this case). In other words, although the complaint was filed as a judicial review case, the Court did not actually review any secondary legislation -- instead, it offered its own opinion on the meaning of the ambiguous statute.

Is it possible that the Court decided that this was the case to
  • turn the tides of deference and place a check on executive lawmaking,
  • while also avoiding hurting ordinary US residents receiving tax credits,
and thus crafted its opinion accordingly? It's possible, but so are many other explanations. As Walker notes, if the Court just wanted to achieve the same practical outcome, there are simpler ways it could have done so. It's also possible that this check on executive power was some form of bargaining chip that Roberts CJ used as a condition of his voting with the majority, as forummm essentially says. Many things are possible. The speculative nature of the exercise may be why Walker purports to be sharing what "some may say", rather than his own opinion.
« Last Edit: June 25, 2015, 10:19:21 PM by Cathy »

brett2k07

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #141 on: June 26, 2015, 06:10:04 AM »
I despise the ACA for how it was marketed and passed. I think it needs to be re-worked in several areas, or repealed all together and then passed piecemeal so that it can be better understood and the merits of each statute debated. However, I agree with this decision. I thought it was pretty predictable. The decision before this though, regarding the mandatory purchase requirement, was an atrocity.

The ACA has its merits. For example, the pre-existing conditions clause and allowing college students to stay on their parents plans while they finish school. But beyond that, I really don't think it's necessary. I would much rather them lift restrictions at the state level and allow health insurance companies to sell policies that span multiple states without having to navigate the red tape at each and every state. One of the reasons health insurance is so costly is because of all of the red tape companies have to go through in order to sell a policy. Every state has their own requirements that the health insurance companies must meet. What's the point in that? If a policy is good enough for a senior in California, why would it not be good enough for a senior in Florida? All it does is increase the cost of compliance which ultimately gets passed on to the consumer.

I don't see Republicans actually repealing the ACA. I don't think they have the backbone to do it. They're more concerned about keeping their jobs than they are about actually changing the country and legislating good policy. Just look at how they've caved on almost every major issue so far, even though they have a majority in both chambers. It's ridiculous. To their credit, the Democrats have done a fantastic job at the blame game which has Boehner and McConnell shaking in their boots any time they might get blamed for something.

They also can't repeal it without an alternative. Quite frankly, I don't think any Republican in either house is enough of a visionary to come up with a good alternative.

dramaman

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #142 on: June 26, 2015, 06:18:15 AM »
My point in my latest post may not have been clear -- I wasn't disagreeing that the outcome was unpredictable and unpredicted.  I was taking your word for it that that is indeed the case (that the justices exercised novel reasoning that none of the legal scholars who studied the case anticipated), and asking (rhetorically, because I think the answer is "yes"), doesn't that mean the possibility exists that the justices constructed a rationale for reaching a desired outcome, rather than performing a totally impartial, outcome-blind analysis?  (Again, I'm still not saying that's what happened, just that it could have been what happened, and I think it definitely does happen in at least some of the country's lower, lesser courts of law.)

It's possible, but so are many other explanations. As Walker notes, if the Court just wanted to achieve the same practical outcome, there are simpler ways it could have done so. It's also possible that this check on executive power was some form of bargaining chip that Roberts CJ used as a condition of his voting with the majority, as forummm essentially says. Many things are possible. The speculative nature of the exercise may be why Walker purports to be sharing what "some may say", rather than his own opinion.

Cathy, I apologize if I misinterpreted your earlier replies to me and apologize in advance if I'm misrepresenting you by leaving out substantial portions of your immediately prior comment, but I think I've captured the gist.

I'm wondering if you might be missing the forest for the trees. I don't discount trying to understand the jurisprudence of the reasoning of the opinion and that it does give an informed opinion about the legal justification that the justices provided, but that seems to leave you effectively taking everything in the opinion at face value that it was a totally organic, entirely reasonable legal decision. But as you seem to attest, it actually wasn't so reasonable that the informed legal watchers could actually predict and appears to have many legal experts mulling over the ramifications. For those of us not inclined to take this opinion at face value, the fact that the decision did not take the simpler legal route, but rather a more unpredicted, some might say convoluted one, does seem to be a reasonable result of this particular six member majority uniting together to accomplish an end result based partly on extra-legal biases (political or otherwise). I believe that the four 'liberals', Democrats, or however you want to classify them actually might very likely have gone for the simpler route, but they needed additional votes. I think Roberts and Kennedy had their own extra-legal (political and otherwise) reasons for wanting to see the subsidies upheld and this led to assembling a hodgepodge of legal reasoning that nobody was able to predict and Scalia (probably rightly) roundly mocked in his dissent.

And while it is totally conjecture, I have to wonder how each justice would vote if the decision instead involved the wording of a law that was the darling of Republicans and roundly condemned by the Democrats? Would we see a shifting of some votes along the political spectrum? The cynical side of me says yes. And if that were the case I'm sure that would make for some interesting analysis of the jurisprudence. :)
« Last Edit: June 26, 2015, 06:20:59 AM by dramaman »

forummm

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #143 on: June 26, 2015, 06:57:57 AM »
Cathy, I would like to learn more about your perspective on the "popular news media". I don't see a response from you about what that means. But assuming that the NYT, as perhaps the most read news publication in the country, qualifies as "popular news media", you could tell us what you think of their coverage of the case:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/26/us/obamacare-supreme-court.html
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/us/2014-term-supreme-court-decision-health-care-subsidies.html

If you find errors in their analysis, I'm very interested to hear your take on them. I am always interested in learning more and hearing other perspectives on things. I know it pains you to read media accounts of court cases. But it would be interesting to hear your take. Thanks in advance.

dramaman

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #144 on: June 26, 2015, 07:06:21 AM »
I despise the ACA for how it was marketed and passed. I think it needs to be re-worked in several areas, or repealed all together and then passed piecemeal so that it can be better understood and the merits of each statute debated. However, I agree with this decision. I thought it was pretty predictable. The decision before this though, regarding the mandatory purchase requirement, was an atrocity.

The ACA has its merits. For example, the pre-existing conditions clause and allowing college students to stay on their parents plans while they finish school. But beyond that, I really don't think it's necessary. I would much rather them lift restrictions at the state level and allow health insurance companies to sell policies that span multiple states without having to navigate the red tape at each and every state. One of the reasons health insurance is so costly is because of all of the red tape companies have to go through in order to sell a policy. Every state has their own requirements that the health insurance companies must meet. What's the point in that? If a policy is good enough for a senior in California, why would it not be good enough for a senior in Florida? All it does is increase the cost of compliance which ultimately gets passed on to the consumer.

I don't see Republicans actually repealing the ACA. I don't think they have the backbone to do it. They're more concerned about keeping their jobs than they are about actually changing the country and legislating good policy. Just look at how they've caved on almost every major issue so far, even though they have a majority in both chambers. It's ridiculous. To their credit, the Democrats have done a fantastic job at the blame game which has Boehner and McConnell shaking in their boots any time they might get blamed for something.

They also can't repeal it without an alternative. Quite frankly, I don't think any Republican in either house is enough of a visionary to come up with a good alternative.

I kind of see the ACA being a particularly ugly result of the pressures that had to be overcome to pass it. While there were arguably better ways that the government could have expanded health coverage for millions of Americans, the fact that anything passed at all is quite remarkable and in my opinion welcome in the absence of no better reform.

Part of the problem, as you allude to, is the lack of vision coming from Republicans. Since the 90's and the defeat of Hillarycare, the Republicans mostly abandoned to the Democrats healthcare reform as an issue. When challenged to come up with solutions, the most you would hear would be things like tort reform, interstate coverage, and expanded HSAs. None of these were necessarily bad, but they chewed at the problem around the edges, never really addressing the problem of millions being without any dependable access except via costly emergency rooms. For the Republicans and their base, healthcare reform was not important and obstruction of it was a more reliable way to score political points. The one obvious exception was Romney in Massachusetts, a Republican governor of a liberal state, shepherding expanded insurance in his state. While it was popular among the people in his state, it became a millstone for him once he ran for President. The Republicans still do not seem interested in healthcare reform and combined with their constant vilification of the ACA and calls for its total repeal, they have painted themselves into a corner with no good options.

dramaman

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #145 on: June 26, 2015, 07:30:52 AM »
Cathy, I would like to learn more about your perspective on the "popular news media". I don't see a response from you about what that means. But assuming that the NYT, as perhaps the most read news publication in the country, qualifies as "popular news media", you could tell us what you think of their coverage of the case:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/26/us/obamacare-supreme-court.html
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/us/2014-term-supreme-court-decision-health-care-subsidies.html

If you find errors in their analysis, I'm very interested to hear your take on them. I am always interested in learning more and hearing other perspectives on things. I know it pains you to read media accounts of court cases. But it would be interesting to hear your take. Thanks in advance.

This may not constitute as "popular news media", but I'd also be interested in hearing Cathy's perspective of this summary of legal points Roberts relied upon in writing for the majority:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/fivepoints/five-points-roberts-upholds-obamacare-again

forummm

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #146 on: June 26, 2015, 07:49:53 AM »
I despise the ACA for how it was marketed and passed. I think it needs to be re-worked in several areas, or repealed all together and then passed piecemeal so that it can be better understood and the merits of each statute debated. However, I agree with this decision. I thought it was pretty predictable. The decision before this though, regarding the mandatory purchase requirement, was an atrocity.

The ACA has its merits. For example, the pre-existing conditions clause and allowing college students to stay on their parents plans while they finish school. But beyond that, I really don't think it's necessary. I would much rather them lift restrictions at the state level and allow health insurance companies to sell policies that span multiple states without having to navigate the red tape at each and every state. One of the reasons health insurance is so costly is because of all of the red tape companies have to go through in order to sell a policy. Every state has their own requirements that the health insurance companies must meet. What's the point in that? If a policy is good enough for a senior in California, why would it not be good enough for a senior in Florida? All it does is increase the cost of compliance which ultimately gets passed on to the consumer.

I don't see Republicans actually repealing the ACA. I don't think they have the backbone to do it. They're more concerned about keeping their jobs than they are about actually changing the country and legislating good policy. Just look at how they've caved on almost every major issue so far, even though they have a majority in both chambers. It's ridiculous. To their credit, the Democrats have done a fantastic job at the blame game which has Boehner and McConnell shaking in their boots any time they might get blamed for something.

They also can't repeal it without an alternative. Quite frankly, I don't think any Republican in either house is enough of a visionary to come up with a good alternative.

So you're arguing that the federal government should have taken a stronger hand in dictating to the states which specific policies must be sold there? That's not the typical direction that more conservative approaches tends to take. Have you stopped to think why that might be?

The Republican arguments in favor of letting policies be sold across state lines are a cover for their real agenda--allowing a race to the bottom, where the least regulated state becomes the standard for the nation. I'll assume you are taking the position with forthright intent. If so, your hope that allowing sale across state lines will result in lower costs is unfortunately unfounded. I don't have time to really explain all the economics of it. But one quick reason: insurance costs what it costs because of what the providers charge. And the providers in California aren't just going to pick up and move to Florida to see patients because some health plan is sold across state lines. You already have many carriers operating in multiple states selling very similar products. This is essentially the same as what would happen if you sold across state lines. Maybe a bit less red tape. But state-level red tape is not what is causing premiums to be high. By law, at least 85% of the cost of the premium must be paid out in claims. And the rest of that goes to overhead for claims processing, profits, salaries, etc. Red tape isn't a huge cost.

Also, I don't think there's anything that prohibits Florida from allowing sale of policies sold in California. Today. Those states have just not chosen to allow it. However, the policies sold in most states are really almost the same. There are certain differences in some states (a handful require treatment for infertility, about half require treatment for autism, etc), but those differences are really small, and wouldn't have much of an effect on price (perhaps 5%).

http://www.ncsl.org/research/health/out-of-state-health-insurance-purchases.aspx
http://www.naic.org/documents/topics_interstate_sales_myths.pdf

I understand the appeal of your idea to repeal and pass piecemeal. But that's not practical. The insurance reforms rely upon each other. If you don't have the individual mandate, adverse selection will cause the premiums to be too high. If you don't have tax credits it will cause the premiums to be too high for some, which causes the risk pool to shrink, and leaves thos people uninsured. If you have guaranteed issue without exclusions for pre-existing conditions, you must have other safeguards to ensure full participation. Maybe it's complicated or you don't like parts of it, but these are the controtions we must go through if we are to continue to not have a single payer system.

The Republicans can't come up with a good alternative because the ACA is largely the Republican plan. Something similar to it was proposed in the 90's by Republicans and conservatives. And Mitt Romney enacted something similar a decade later in MA.

The health system in the country, and the ACA itself, are complicated and hard for people to understand. This makes it easy for otherwise well-informed and intelligent people to be sold a bill of goods on the issue. The flaws in the ACA are that it didn't go far enough. It's further entrenching us in a failed private insurance system. And didn't deal with many of the reasons that cost is out of control. But in order to deal with those problems, we'd have to move in a direction where the government takes a strong hand in the industry. There is no other way. I say that not as someone who likes the government running everything. It's just reality. Look around the world. Every other industrialized nation has a single payer system with a lot of government control. And they work better than our system. Cheaper and better outcomes.

Health care is one of the few areas where it's impossible to have a free market without market failure.

forummm

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #147 on: June 26, 2015, 08:12:33 AM »
I don't think anyone here was saying what the rationale in the opinions would be. We were saying it was clear what the votes of certain people would be. There are certain cases where you know with a pretty high degree of certainty on subject alone how some of the justices will vote, regardless of anything else that happens.

I figured, but was not certain, that the Court would be more likely to side with the administration because the intent of the Congress was so clear when you look at the bill as a whole. And that the dissenters would say "if you only read those 4 words" (and ignore everything else) that's what the bill says right there--those 4 words. I didn't know what the specific rationale would be that got them to that point though. But I was pretty confident how 7 of the justices would vote and had a good sense about Kennedy but was less certain. Roberts is playing the long game and is interesting to watch. He likes to write the majority opinion in these 'heightened awareness' cases so he can scope it the way he wants and plant hooks for the future. I had no sense of which direction he would go on this case. I'm also pretty confident how 8 will vote on the same sex marriage case (unsure of Roberts), but I'm not sure what they will all choose to vote on. And also have no idea what rationale they will use to get there. It could be another case where Roberts joins the majority so he can write the opinion again. I think that's the most likely to happen, but much closer to 50/50.

So I think it's fair to say that this one was predicted in writing in advance.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/27/us/supreme-court-same-sex-marriage.html

The other 5 were just willing to go much further than Roberts was.

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #148 on: June 26, 2015, 09:26:21 AM »
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/26/opinion/the-roberts-courts-reality-check.html

This is an opinion piece--not to be confused with a news article. I think this is an interesting presentation that shows how Scalia is inconsistent in how he applies judicial reasoning. I have found this inconsistency to be correlated with the outcome he wants the case to have.

Quote
Do “words no longer have meaning,” as Justice Scalia put it in his angry dissenting opinion? What, after all, could be clearer? The state, not the federal government. The two are not the same. They are different! So poor and middle-class people in the 34 (mostly red) states that refused to set up their own insurance exchanges, defaulting that task to the federal government, are just out of luck. They aren’t eligible for tax subsidies to help them buy insurance, subsidies that are critical to making the law work. End of story, end of case, end of the Affordable Care Act (or Scotuscare, as Justice Scalia said the law should be re-named).

The chief justice’s masterful opinion showed that line of argument for the simplistic and agenda-driven construct that it was. Parsing the 1,000-plus-page statute in a succinct 21-page opinion, he deftly wove in quotations from recent Supreme Court opinions.

Who said that we “must do our best, bearing in mind the fundamental canon of statutory construction that the words of a statute must be read in their context and with a view to their place in the overall statutory scheme”? Why, it was Justice Scalia (actually quoting an earlier opinion by Justice Sandra Day O’Connor) in a decision just a year ago.

And who said that “a provision that may seem ambiguous in isolation is often clarified by the remainder of the statutory scheme” because “only one of the permissible meanings produces a substantive effect that is compatible with the rest of the law”? Why, Justice Scalia again.

“In this instance,” Chief Justice Roberts wrote, “the context and structure of the Act compel us to depart from what would otherwise be the most natural reading of the pertinent statutory phrase.” He concluded: “A fair reading of legislation demands a fair understanding of the legislative plan.” Among the chief justice’s silent partners in the six-justice majority opinion was Justice Kennedy, by most accounts the driving force behind the near miss three years ago.

dramaman

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Re: Supreme Court to opine on Obamacare tax credit
« Reply #149 on: June 26, 2015, 11:05:32 AM »
I don't think anyone here was saying what the rationale in the opinions would be. We were saying it was clear what the votes of certain people would be. There are certain cases where you know with a pretty high degree of certainty on subject alone how some of the justices will vote, regardless of anything else that happens.

I figured, but was not certain, that the Court would be more likely to side with the administration because the intent of the Congress was so clear when you look at the bill as a whole. And that the dissenters would say "if you only read those 4 words" (and ignore everything else) that's what the bill says right there--those 4 words. I didn't know what the specific rationale would be that got them to that point though. But I was pretty confident how 7 of the justices would vote and had a good sense about Kennedy but was less certain. Roberts is playing the long game and is interesting to watch. He likes to write the majority opinion in these 'heightened awareness' cases so he can scope it the way he wants and plant hooks for the future. I had no sense of which direction he would go on this case. I'm also pretty confident how 8 will vote on the same sex marriage case (unsure of Roberts), but I'm not sure what they will all choose to vote on. And also have no idea what rationale they will use to get there. It could be another case where Roberts joins the majority so he can write the opinion again. I think that's the most likely to happen, but much closer to 50/50.

So I think it's fair to say that this one was predicted in writing in advance.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/27/us/supreme-court-same-sex-marriage.html

The other 5 were just willing to go much further than Roberts was.

From a practical stand point, I was hoping that perhaps Roberts would join the other five in today's ruling so as to make such a monumental ruling less of a split decision. Taking his dissent at face value, it comes across as charitable and gracious, but unwilling to concede that there was legal justification for the court to achieve the ends that it did.

I agree that Roberts is one of the most interesting Justices currently on the bench in terms of his savvy and long game, driving Conservatives (Scalia in particular) absolutely bonkers when his carefully constructed rulings don't align with their desires.